Scores (sorted by team) through February 28, 2009 courtesy of USCHO.com . Disclaimer: The D3 rankings are new and it is unclear to me how well connected the East/West schedules are and therefore still unclear how accurate the relative rankings between regions are. Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Maximum Goal Differential = 7 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below * - Indicates team rating based on only two scores RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 23 1 2, 3.1, 7.6, 10.67, 11.70 2,Wis-Superior,______________________ 23 2 3, 2.3, 8.2, 10.51, 11.48 3,St Norbert,________________________ 19 8 1, 1.6, 8.6, 10.17, 9.60 4,Adrian,____________________________ 26 1 1, 4.2, 5.9, 10.10, 9.06 5,St Scholastica,____________________ 20 6 2, 1.6, 8.4, 9.98, 10.07 6,Elmira,____________________________ 16 7 3, 1.8, 7.9, 9.74, 7.81 7,Wis-Stout,_________________________ 21 5 2, 1.4, 8.3, 9.70, 10.60 8,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 16 10 0, 1.1, 8.4, 9.47, 9.10 9,Hobart,____________________________ 19 5 2, 2.0, 7.5, 9.47, 10.01 10,Middlebury,________________________ 18 6 1, 1.8, 7.6, 9.37, 8.69 11,Oswego,____________________________ 18 7 1, 1.6, 7.7, 9.33, 9.34 12,St Olaf,___________________________ 16 7 3, 1.0, 8.3, 9.32, 8.99 13,Amherst,___________________________ 19 4 1, 2.0, 7.2, 9.25, 10.33 14,Wis-Eau Claire,____________________ 13 13 1, 0.6, 8.6, 9.20, 8.00 15,Wis-Stevens Point,_________________ 15 10 2, 0.7, 8.4, 9.11, 8.60 16,Hamline,___________________________ 16 10 1, 1.1, 7.9, 9.04, 10.86 17,Neumann,___________________________ 16 9 2, 1.1, 7.9, 9.03, 9.25 18,Manhattanville,____________________ 16 4 5, 1.6, 7.4, 9.00, 9.27 19,Norwich,___________________________ 13 8 4, 1.1, 7.8, 8.95, 8.45 20,St Thomas,_________________________ 12 11 3, 0.4, 8.5, 8.84, 7.32 21,Wis-River Falls,___________________ 10 15 2, -0.3, 8.8, 8.46, 7.68 22,Trinity,___________________________ 16 8 0, 1.3, 7.1, 8.40, 8.17 23,Augsburg,__________________________ 9 16 1, -0.3, 8.5, 8.13, 8.65 24,Castleton,_________________________ 15 9 2, 0.6, 7.5, 8.08, 8.32 25,New England College,_______________ 15 9 2, 0.8, 7.3, 8.05, 7.34 26,Curry,_____________________________ 20 4 2, 2.5, 5.6, 8.04, 8.41 27,Utica,_____________________________ 11 12 3, 0.5, 7.5, 7.97, 8.50 28,Conn College,______________________ 13 9 3, 0.4, 7.6, 7.94, 7.62 29,St John's,_________________________ 10 14 1, -0.3, 8.2, 7.93, 7.89 30,Babson,____________________________ 11 13 1, 0.4, 7.4, 7.89, 7.91 31,Buffalo State,_____________________ 10 12 4, 0.7, 7.1, 7.82, 7.37 32,Skidmore,__________________________ 13 9 3, 0.3, 7.5, 7.81, 9.43 33,Williams,__________________________ 15 8 2, 0.0, 7.6, 7.60, 7.40 34,Bowdoin,___________________________ 11 12 2, 0.5, 7.0, 7.54, 7.26 35,Salem State,_______________________ 14 9 2, 0.5, 6.9, 7.45, 8.08 36,Wentworth,_________________________ 16 7 1, 2.1, 5.3, 7.39, 7.53 37,Geneseo,___________________________ 14 12 1, -0.2, 7.6, 7.39, 7.44 38,Potsdam,___________________________ 9 12 5, 0.0, 7.4, 7.38, 6.85 39,Nichols,___________________________ 23 3 0, 2.3, 5.0, 7.29, 7.63 40,Bethel,____________________________ 11 13 1, -0.6, 7.8, 7.25, 7.72 41,Southern Maine,____________________ 11 12 3, -0.1, 7.1, 7.00, 7.13 42,Hamilton,__________________________ 9 15 1, -0.6, 7.6, 6.97, 6.09 43,Marian,____________________________ 13 12 3, 0.2, 6.7, 6.94, 6.26 44,Fredonia,__________________________ 6 13 5, -0.8, 7.7, 6.90, 6.58 45,Milw School of Eng,________________ 15 11 2, 0.3, 6.6, 6.90, 6.22 46,Brockport,_________________________ 14 10 3, 0.2, 6.6, 6.87, 6.46 47,Concordia MN,______________________ 4 19 2, -1.4, 8.2, 6.80, 6.38 48,Lake Forest,_______________________ 5 20 2, -2.0, 8.6, 6.57, 7.67 49,Tufts,_____________________________ 11 12 2, -0.4, 6.9, 6.55, 7.79 50,Lawrence,__________________________ 16 11 1, 0.5, 6.1, 6.53, 6.50 51,Cortland,__________________________ 8 15 2, -0.6, 7.1, 6.53, 6.32 52,Colby,_____________________________ 6 15 3, -0.8, 7.3, 6.47, 5.53 53,Mass-Boston,_______________________ 9 15 2, -0.6, 6.9, 6.35, 6.48 54,Finlandia,_________________________ 10 13 2, -0.0, 6.2, 6.20, 6.66 55,Wesleyan,__________________________ 4 17 2, -1.7, 7.8, 6.13, 7.09 56,St Anselm,_________________________ 10 14 1, -1.0, 7.0, 6.06, 7.04 57,Mass-Dartmouth,____________________ 16 8 2, 0.7, 5.2, 5.93, 4.77 58,Westfield State,___________________ 11 9 4, 0.8, 4.6, 5.48, 2.12 59,Fitchburg State,___________________ 13 8 5, 0.4, 4.9, 5.33, 6.33 60,Morrisville,_______________________ 5 19 1, -2.1, 7.4, 5.30, 4.85 61,St Mary's,_________________________ 4 20 1, -3.4, 8.7, 5.28, 3.79 62,St Michael's,______________________ 9 15 2, -1.5, 6.7, 5.23, 3.93 63,Plymouth State,____________________ 11 12 2, -0.6, 5.2, 4.55, 3.59 64,Becker,____________________________ 11 13 1, -0.8, 5.3, 4.51, 3.98 65,Stonehill,_________________________ 9 12 1, -0.0, 4.5, 4.50, 3.41 66,So New Hampshire,__________________ 9 12 2, -0.3, 4.7, 4.39, 6.48 67,Minn-Crookston,____________________ 6 22 0, -2.1, 6.5, 4.35, 5.83 68,Suffolk,___________________________ 8 14 3, -1.1, 5.2, 4.15, 6.72 69,Concordia WI,______________________ 4 22 1, -2.9, 7.0, 4.11, 5.24 70,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 9 14 3, -1.2, 5.2, 4.01, 4.79 71,Worcester State,___________________ 6 15 3, -1.3, 4.9, 3.57, 2.43 72,Lebanon Valley,____________________ 0 25 0, -4.8, 8.3, 3.54, 3.71 73,Assumption,________________________ 6 16 4, -1.4, 4.7, 3.29, 3.93 74,Salve Regina,______________________ 3 17 2, -1.7, 5.0, 3.26, 3.35 75,Northland,_________________________ 1 25 1, -4.1, 7.2, 3.07, 2.49 76,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 5 18 2, -2.0, 4.8, 2.89, 1.86 77,Western NE College,________________ 3 20 2, -3.2, 5.5, 2.32, 2.04 78,Framingham State,__________________ 0 21 4, -3.6, 5.5, 1.84, 0.69 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 23 1 2, 0.8, 7.1, 7.98, 8.10 2,Wis-Superior,______________________ 23 2 3, 0.8, 7.1, 7.90, 8.24 3,Amherst,___________________________ 19 4 1, 0.6, 7.2, 7.80, 8.33 4,Wis-Stout,_________________________ 21 5 2, 0.6, 7.2, 7.73, 8.41 5,Middlebury,________________________ 18 6 1, 0.5, 7.2, 7.72, 7.36 6,St Scholastica,____________________ 20 6 2, 0.5, 7.2, 7.71, 7.62 7,Hobart,____________________________ 19 5 2, 0.5, 7.1, 7.66, 7.76 8,St Norbert,________________________ 19 8 1, 0.4, 7.3, 7.66, 7.62 9,Manhattanville,____________________ 16 4 5, 0.5, 7.1, 7.61, 7.64 10,Elmira,____________________________ 16 7 3, 0.3, 7.2, 7.58, 6.87 11,Oswego,____________________________ 18 7 1, 0.4, 7.1, 7.56, 7.47 12,Adrian,____________________________ 26 1 1, 0.9, 6.6, 7.53, 7.26 13,Williams,__________________________ 15 8 2, 0.3, 7.2, 7.51, 7.38 14,Norwich,___________________________ 13 8 4, 0.2, 7.3, 7.50, 7.12 15,Neumann,___________________________ 16 9 2, 0.3, 7.2, 7.48, 7.60 16,Trinity,___________________________ 16 8 0, 0.3, 7.1, 7.48, 7.43 17,St Olaf,___________________________ 16 7 3, 0.3, 7.1, 7.46, 7.30 18,Castleton,_________________________ 15 9 2, 0.2, 7.2, 7.46, 7.74 19,New England College,_______________ 15 9 2, 0.2, 7.2, 7.42, 7.26 20,Conn College,______________________ 13 9 3, 0.2, 7.3, 7.42, 6.98 21,Skidmore,__________________________ 13 9 3, 0.2, 7.2, 7.40, 7.77 22,Nichols,___________________________ 23 3 0, 0.8, 6.6, 7.40, 7.05 23,Wis-Stevens Point,_________________ 15 10 2, 0.2, 7.2, 7.39, 7.44 24,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 16 10 0, 0.2, 7.2, 7.38, 7.14 25,Curry,_____________________________ 20 4 2, 0.6, 6.7, 7.36, 7.34 26,Salem State,_______________________ 14 9 2, 0.2, 7.1, 7.29, 7.45 27,Wis-Eau Claire,____________________ 13 13 1, 0.0, 7.3, 7.27, 6.69 28,Hamline,___________________________ 16 10 1, 0.2, 7.0, 7.25, 7.81 29,St Thomas,_________________________ 12 11 3, 0.0, 7.2, 7.22, 6.83 30,Geneseo,___________________________ 14 12 1, 0.1, 7.1, 7.16, 7.37 31,Babson,____________________________ 11 13 1, -0.1, 7.2, 7.15, 7.23 32,Wis-River Falls,___________________ 10 15 2, -0.2, 7.3, 7.11, 6.71 33,Utica,_____________________________ 11 12 3, -0.0, 7.1, 7.11, 7.17 34,Southern Maine,____________________ 11 12 3, -0.0, 7.1, 7.09, 7.06 35,Bowdoin,___________________________ 11 12 2, -0.0, 7.1, 7.08, 7.01 36,Wentworth,_________________________ 16 7 1, 0.4, 6.7, 7.07, 7.47 37,Tufts,_____________________________ 11 12 2, -0.0, 7.1, 7.06, 7.64 38,Brockport,_________________________ 14 10 3, 0.1, 6.9, 7.06, 6.90 39,Hamilton,__________________________ 9 15 1, -0.2, 7.2, 6.99, 6.86 40,Potsdam,___________________________ 9 12 5, -0.1, 7.1, 6.97, 7.08 41,Mass-Dartmouth,____________________ 16 8 2, 0.3, 6.6, 6.96, 6.52 42,Buffalo State,_____________________ 10 12 4, -0.1, 7.0, 6.95, 6.95 43,St Anselm,_________________________ 10 14 1, -0.2, 7.1, 6.95, 6.91 44,Bethel,____________________________ 11 13 1, -0.1, 7.0, 6.92, 6.98 45,Augsburg,__________________________ 9 16 1, -0.3, 7.2, 6.91, 7.06 46,St John's,_________________________ 10 14 1, -0.2, 7.1, 6.91, 7.03 47,Milw School of Eng,________________ 15 11 2, 0.1, 6.8, 6.90, 7.17 48,Mass-Boston,_______________________ 9 15 2, -0.2, 7.1, 6.87, 7.24 49,Fredonia,__________________________ 6 13 5, -0.3, 7.1, 6.84, 6.89 50,Marian,____________________________ 13 12 3, 0.0, 6.8, 6.83, 6.71 51,Lawrence,__________________________ 16 11 1, 0.2, 6.6, 6.83, 6.70 52,St Michael's,______________________ 9 15 2, -0.2, 7.0, 6.82, 6.57 53,Colby,_____________________________ 6 15 3, -0.4, 7.2, 6.80, 6.51 54,Fitchburg State,___________________ 13 8 5, 0.2, 6.6, 6.80, 7.41 55,Wesleyan,__________________________ 4 17 2, -0.6, 7.3, 6.76, 7.16 56,Cortland,__________________________ 8 15 2, -0.3, 7.0, 6.75, 6.54 57,Lake Forest,_______________________ 5 20 2, -0.6, 7.3, 6.72, 6.86 58,Westfield State,___________________ 11 9 4, 0.1, 6.6, 6.64, 5.93 59,Plymouth State,____________________ 11 12 2, -0.0, 6.7, 6.62, 6.59 60,Becker,____________________________ 11 13 1, -0.1, 6.7, 6.60, 6.41 61,Finlandia,_________________________ 10 13 2, -0.1, 6.7, 6.60, 6.50 62,St Mary's,_________________________ 4 20 1, -0.6, 7.2, 6.57, 6.37 63,Morrisville,_______________________ 5 19 1, -0.6, 7.1, 6.52, 6.22 64,Concordia MN,______________________ 4 19 2, -0.6, 7.1, 6.48, 6.50 65,Suffolk,___________________________ 8 14 3, -0.2, 6.7, 6.45, 7.32 66,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 9 14 3, -0.2, 6.6, 6.44, 6.39 67,So New Hampshire,__________________ 9 12 2, -0.1, 6.6, 6.43, 6.92 68,Stonehill,_________________________ 9 12 1, -0.1, 6.5, 6.39, 6.17 69,Lebanon Valley,____________________ 0 25 0, -1.0, 7.3, 6.32, 6.55 70,Worcester State,___________________ 6 15 3, -0.4, 6.6, 6.22, 5.91 71,Concordia WI,______________________ 4 22 1, -0.7, 6.9, 6.21, 6.11 72,Assumption,________________________ 6 16 4, -0.4, 6.6, 6.17, 6.28 73,Minn-Crookston,____________________ 6 22 0, -0.6, 6.7, 6.17, 6.69 74,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 5 18 2, -0.5, 6.6, 6.06, 5.52 75,Northland,_________________________ 1 25 1, -0.9, 6.9, 6.03, 5.84 76,Western NE College,________________ 3 20 2, -0.7, 6.7, 6.02, 6.11 77,Salve Regina,______________________ 3 17 2, -0.6, 6.6, 5.98, 6.09 78,Framingham State,__________________ 0 21 4, -0.8, 6.7, 5.89, 5.77 Link to the 2005-2006 Final D1 Rankings . The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 7. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States High School National Rankings New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1 USHL NAHL ACHA College Club USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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