2004-2005 NCAA Division 1 Hockey Rankings

Link to the 2003-2004 Final Ranking . Scores through April 9, 2005 from USCHO.com . New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed below. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 7. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. Links to other ratings: CT  IA  IL  IN  MA  MD  MD-VA  ME  MI  MN  MN-WI-ND  MO  ND  Northeast  NH  NJ  NY  WNY Club  OH  PA-E  PA-W  RI  VA  VT  WI  wWI  USA  New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1  Receive email when this page changes

Maximum Goal Differential = 7

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RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Denver,____________________________ 32 9 2, 1.5, 8.2, 9.74, 10.99 2,Colorado College,__________________ 31 9 3, 1.4, 8.2, 9.54, 9.13 3,Minnesota,_________________________ 28 15 1, 1.0, 8.3, 9.36, 8.01 4,Michigan,__________________________ 31 8 3, 1.7, 7.6, 9.29, 9.44 5,North Dakota,______________________ 25 15 5, 0.7, 8.3, 9.02, 10.64 6,Wisconsin,_________________________ 23 14 4, 0.9, 8.1, 8.95, 7.49 7,Cornell,___________________________ 27 5 3, 1.9, 6.9, 8.78, 9.19 8,New Hampshire,_____________________ 26 11 5, 1.2, 7.5, 8.77, 9.25 9,Boston College,____________________ 26 7 7, 1.3, 7.5, 8.73, 8.57 10,Maine,_____________________________ 20 13 7, 1.1, 7.6, 8.69, 9.93 11,Ohio State,________________________ 27 11 4, 1.1, 7.4, 8.47, 8.08 12,Michigan State,____________________ 20 17 4, 0.5, 7.8, 8.27, 8.41 13,Northern Michigan,_________________ 22 11 6, 0.7, 7.5, 8.20, 7.25 14,Harvard,___________________________ 21 10 3, 1.0, 7.2, 8.19, 8.10 15,Minnesota-Duluth,__________________ 15 17 6, 0.0, 8.1, 8.17, 7.20 16,Boston University,_________________ 23 14 4, 0.2, 7.8, 8.03, 6.36 17,Mass-Lowell,_______________________ 20 12 4, 0.6, 7.3, 7.91, 6.08 18,Miami,_____________________________ 15 18 5, 0.4, 7.5, 7.88, 7.56 19,Dartmouth,_________________________ 20 13 2, 1.0, 6.8, 7.82, 7.04 20,Minnesota State,___________________ 13 19 6, -0.6, 8.4, 7.80, 7.90 21,St Cloud State,____________________ 14 23 3, -0.5, 8.3, 7.73, 6.70 22,Vermont,___________________________ 21 14 4, 0.6, 7.1, 7.68, 7.35 23,Northeastern,______________________ 15 18 5, -0.2, 7.7, 7.58, 6.79 24,Nebraska-Omaha,____________________ 19 16 4, 0.2, 7.3, 7.51, 5.64 25,Colgate,___________________________ 25 11 3, 0.8, 6.7, 7.51, 8.81 26,Bowling Green,_____________________ 16 16 4, 0.0, 7.4, 7.44, 5.69 27,Michigan Tech,_____________________ 8 25 3, -1.3, 8.7, 7.41, 6.12 28,Alaska-Anchorage,__________________ 12 19 6, -0.9, 8.3, 7.39, 7.69 29,Alaska-Fairbanks,__________________ 17 16 4, -0.3, 7.6, 7.29, 9.73 30,St Lawrence,_______________________ 17 19 2, -0.0, 7.3, 7.23, 8.55 31,Bemidji State,_____________________ 23 13 1, 0.8, 6.3, 7.06, 9.12 32,Ferris State,______________________ 13 22 4, -0.4, 7.5, 7.03, 7.19 33,Brown,_____________________________ 16 14 3, 0.1, 6.8, 6.83, 5.80 34,Alabama-Huntsville,________________ 18 10 4, 0.8, 6.0, 6.81, 5.75 35,Western Michigan,__________________ 14 21 2, -0.8, 7.6, 6.77, 7.14 36,Lake Superior,_____________________ 9 22 7, -0.9, 7.5, 6.67, 6.44 37,Providence,________________________ 12 21 4, -0.6, 7.3, 6.67, 7.94 38,Clarkson,__________________________ 13 23 3, -0.7, 7.0, 6.24, 6.07 39,Massachusetts,_____________________ 13 23 2, -1.3, 7.5, 6.19, 6.15 40,Niagara,___________________________ 15 19 2, -0.1, 6.2, 6.13, 5.69 41,Rensselaer,________________________ 14 22 2, -0.4, 6.5, 6.07, 4.94 42,Wayne State,_______________________ 14 17 4, 0.0, 6.0, 6.05, 6.94 43,Notre Dame,________________________ 5 27 6, -2.0, 7.9, 5.94, 6.28 44,Union,_____________________________ 13 22 2, -0.9, 6.8, 5.92, 5.85 45,Merrimack,_________________________ 8 26 2, -1.7, 7.4, 5.67, 4.12 46,Princeton,_________________________ 8 20 3, -1.3, 6.7, 5.44, 5.03 47,Mercyhurst,________________________ 18 16 4, 0.2, 5.0, 5.20, 6.53 48,Yale,______________________________ 5 25 2, -2.1, 7.2, 5.10, 5.09 49,Quinnipiac,________________________ 21 13 3, 0.5, 4.5, 5.03, 5.96 50,Air Force,_________________________ 14 19 3, -0.7, 5.7, 5.02, 4.46 51,Holy Cross,________________________ 16 14 6, 0.2, 4.7, 4.91, 5.24 52,Canisius,__________________________ 16 15 4, 0.0, 4.8, 4.83, 4.01 53,Robert Morris,_____________________ 8 21 4, -1.4, 5.9, 4.49, 4.00 54,Sacred Heart,______________________ 13 21 1, -1.1, 5.1, 3.99, 2.47 55,Connecticut,_______________________ 11 23 3, -1.0, 5.0, 3.96, 3.49 56,Army,______________________________ 7 21 3, -1.2, 4.6, 3.41, 3.06 57,Bentley,___________________________ 8 20 6, -1.3, 4.7, 3.41, 3.50 58,American Int'l,____________________ 4 23 4, -1.7, 4.5, 2.81, 2.04 722 predicted correctly 256 predicted incorrectly Ties 108 Predict Pct 0.73824 The Goal Diff Limit is set at 7
The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Note that the current spread between #1 and #58 is about 2.1 . Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH .

Maximum Goal Differential = 1

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RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Denver,____________________________ 32 9 2, 0.5, 7.4, 7.94, 8.60 2,Colorado College,__________________ 31 9 3, 0.5, 7.4, 7.89, 7.91 3,Minnesota,_________________________ 28 15 1, 0.3, 7.4, 7.73, 7.43 4,Michigan,__________________________ 31 8 3, 0.5, 7.1, 7.69, 7.95 5,North Dakota,______________________ 25 15 5, 0.2, 7.4, 7.64, 8.30 6,Boston College,____________________ 26 7 7, 0.5, 7.2, 7.64, 7.78 7,Wisconsin,_________________________ 23 14 4, 0.2, 7.4, 7.58, 7.21 8,Cornell,___________________________ 27 5 3, 0.6, 6.9, 7.57, 7.89 9,New Hampshire,_____________________ 26 11 5, 0.4, 7.2, 7.54, 7.72 10,Boston University,_________________ 23 14 4, 0.2, 7.3, 7.47, 6.96 11,Ohio State,________________________ 27 11 4, 0.4, 7.1, 7.45, 7.06 12,Northern Michigan,_________________ 22 11 6, 0.3, 7.1, 7.39, 7.15 13,Maine,_____________________________ 20 13 7, 0.2, 7.2, 7.38, 7.53 14,Harvard,___________________________ 21 10 3, 0.3, 7.1, 7.38, 7.47 15,Minnesota-Duluth,__________________ 15 17 6, -0.1, 7.4, 7.32, 7.50 16,Mass-Lowell,_______________________ 20 12 4, 0.2, 7.1, 7.31, 6.53 17,Minnesota State,___________________ 13 19 6, -0.2, 7.4, 7.28, 7.33 18,Michigan State,____________________ 20 17 4, 0.1, 7.2, 7.28, 7.37 19,Colgate,___________________________ 25 11 3, 0.4, 6.9, 7.26, 7.48 20,Alaska-Anchorage,__________________ 12 19 6, -0.2, 7.4, 7.24, 7.02 21,St Cloud State,____________________ 14 23 3, -0.2, 7.4, 7.19, 6.96 22,Vermont,___________________________ 21 14 4, 0.2, 7.0, 7.19, 7.04 23,Alaska-Fairbanks,__________________ 17 16 4, 0.0, 7.2, 7.18, 7.91 24,Northeastern,______________________ 15 18 5, -0.1, 7.3, 7.18, 7.07 25,Nebraska-Omaha,____________________ 19 16 4, 0.1, 7.1, 7.13, 6.89 26,Dartmouth,_________________________ 20 13 2, 0.2, 6.9, 7.13, 6.68 27,Bowling Green,_____________________ 16 16 4, 0.0, 7.1, 7.08, 6.40 28,Michigan Tech,_____________________ 8 25 3, -0.5, 7.6, 7.08, 6.72 29,Bemidji State,_____________________ 23 13 1, 0.3, 6.8, 7.04, 7.44 30,Miami,_____________________________ 15 18 5, -0.1, 7.1, 7.03, 6.93 31,St Lawrence,_______________________ 17 19 2, -0.1, 7.0, 6.99, 7.21 32,Brown,_____________________________ 16 14 3, 0.1, 6.9, 6.98, 6.78 33,Western Michigan,__________________ 14 21 2, -0.2, 7.1, 6.93, 6.99 34,Alabama-Huntsville,________________ 18 10 4, 0.3, 6.7, 6.92, 6.83 35,Massachusetts,_____________________ 13 23 2, -0.3, 7.2, 6.90, 7.06 36,Ferris State,______________________ 13 22 4, -0.2, 7.1, 6.88, 7.04 37,Providence,________________________ 12 21 4, -0.2, 7.1, 6.88, 7.47 38,Lake Superior,_____________________ 9 22 7, -0.3, 7.1, 6.80, 6.19 39,Clarkson,__________________________ 13 23 3, -0.3, 7.0, 6.72, 6.83 40,Union,_____________________________ 13 22 2, -0.2, 6.9, 6.68, 6.61 41,Notre Dame,________________________ 5 27 6, -0.6, 7.2, 6.66, 6.52 42,Niagara,___________________________ 15 19 2, -0.1, 6.8, 6.65, 6.31 43,Merrimack,_________________________ 8 26 2, -0.5, 7.1, 6.63, 6.16 44,Rensselaer,________________________ 14 22 2, -0.2, 6.8, 6.63, 6.23 45,Wayne State,_______________________ 14 17 4, -0.1, 6.7, 6.62, 6.64 46,Princeton,_________________________ 8 20 3, -0.4, 6.9, 6.51, 6.49 47,Quinnipiac,________________________ 21 13 3, 0.2, 6.3, 6.47, 6.60 48,Mercyhurst,________________________ 18 16 4, 0.1, 6.4, 6.46, 7.15 49,Air Force,_________________________ 14 19 3, -0.1, 6.6, 6.45, 6.47 50,Yale,______________________________ 5 25 2, -0.6, 7.0, 6.41, 6.34 51,Holy Cross,________________________ 16 14 6, 0.1, 6.3, 6.39, 6.21 52,Canisius,__________________________ 16 15 4, 0.0, 6.4, 6.39, 6.11 53,Robert Morris,_____________________ 8 21 4, -0.4, 6.6, 6.24, 6.16 54,Sacred Heart,______________________ 13 21 1, -0.2, 6.4, 6.20, 5.45 55,Connecticut,_______________________ 11 23 3, -0.3, 6.4, 6.07, 5.90 56,Bentley,___________________________ 8 20 6, -0.4, 6.3, 5.96, 6.00 57,Army,______________________________ 7 21 3, -0.5, 6.3, 5.85, 5.71 58,American Int'l,____________________ 4 23 4, -0.6, 6.3, 5.66, 5.42 731 predicted correctly 247 predicted incorrectly Ties 108 Predict Pct 0.74744 The Goal Diff Limit is set at 1


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