Men's NCAA Division 3 Hockey Rankings

Scores (sorted by team) through January 18, 2015 courtesy of USCHO.com . Disclaimer: The D3 rankings are new and it is unclear to me how well connected the East/West schedules are and therefore still unclear how accurate the relative rankings between regions are. Previous Rankings  New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Maximum Goal Differential = 4 2013 National Champions: Wisconsin-Eau Claire See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,St Norbert,________________________ 13 1 2, 2.4, 7.3, 9.75, 9.41 2,Trinity,___________________________ 12 1 1, 2.0, 7.4, 9.37, 9.28 3,Adrian,____________________________ 12 2 3, 1.8, 7.6, 9.35, 9.16 4,Wisconsin-Stevens Point,___________ 12 4 0, 1.2, 8.1, 9.35, 8.74 5,Norwich,___________________________ 14 2 1, 2.3, 6.9, 9.22, 8.38 6,Wisconsin-Eau Claire,______________ 9 4 2, 1.3, 7.9, 9.21, 10.09 7,Wisconsin-River Falls,_____________ 14 2 1, 1.6, 7.5, 9.15, 8.44 8,Oswego,____________________________ 10 2 3, 1.7, 7.4, 9.11, 8.53 9,Hobart,____________________________ 11 5 0, 1.4, 7.6, 9.04, 9.83 10,St Thomas,_________________________ 9 3 3, 1.2, 7.7, 8.95, 9.74 11,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 12 4 1, 1.3, 7.6, 8.86, 7.87 12,Amherst,___________________________ 10 3 2, 0.9, 7.9, 8.74, 8.89 13,Babson,____________________________ 13 2 2, 2.2, 6.5, 8.67, 8.11 14,Utica,_____________________________ 8 5 3, 0.9, 7.8, 8.66, 8.90 15,Concordia (Minn),__________________ 9 5 3, 0.7, 7.8, 8.51, 9.36 16,St John's,_________________________ 7 5 4, 0.4, 8.0, 8.43, 7.49 17,Bowdoin,___________________________ 8 4 2, 1.3, 7.1, 8.38, 7.52 18,Williams,__________________________ 9 3 2, 0.9, 7.5, 8.37, 8.70 19,Lake Forest,_______________________ 9 3 5, 0.9, 7.4, 8.37, 8.04 20,Elmira,____________________________ 8 5 3, 0.5, 7.8, 8.28, 8.22 21,Massachusetts-Boston,______________ 14 2 1, 1.8, 6.5, 8.26, 7.85 22,Geneseo,___________________________ 7 6 3, 0.6, 7.6, 8.14, 8.32 23,Nazareth,__________________________ 6 6 3, -0.1, 8.2, 8.10, 7.74 24,Hamilton,__________________________ 5 5 4, 0.4, 7.7, 8.06, 8.41 25,Neumann,___________________________ 8 5 3, 0.5, 7.5, 7.98, 7.05 26,Augsburg,__________________________ 7 8 0, 0.0, 7.9, 7.91, 6.91 27,Middlebury,________________________ 6 6 2, -0.1, 8.0, 7.89, 8.66 28,St Mary's,_________________________ 7 6 2, 0.4, 7.4, 7.83, 7.84 29,Brockport,_________________________ 8 6 1, 0.3, 7.4, 7.76, 8.65 30,St Scholastica,____________________ 8 7 2, 0.3, 7.5, 7.75, 7.70 31,Hamline,___________________________ 7 4 4, 0.0, 7.7, 7.73, 8.76 32,Connecticut College,_______________ 6 6 2, 0.0, 7.7, 7.72, 8.08 33,Milwaukee School of Engineering,___ 10 7 0, 0.5, 7.2, 7.70, 9.13 34,Nichols,___________________________ 11 3 2, 1.6, 6.0, 7.52, 9.22 35,Marian,____________________________ 6 11 0, -0.7, 8.1, 7.36, 7.25 36,Wisconsin-Superior,________________ 7 10 0, 0.2, 7.1, 7.29, 7.53 37,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 5 6 6, -0.1, 7.3, 7.28, 7.85 38,Daniel Webster,____________________ 3 0 0, 3.7, 3.3, 7.00 39,Colby,_____________________________ 5 8 2, -0.6, 7.6, 6.99, 7.66 40,Manhattanville,____________________ 6 6 4, -0.3, 7.3, 6.98, 6.88 41,Morrisville,_______________________ 4 7 5, -0.4, 7.3, 6.95, 6.09 42,Curry,_____________________________ 9 5 2, 0.4, 6.5, 6.95, 8.20 43,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 9 6 1, 0.9, 6.0, 6.90, 7.66 44,Cortland,__________________________ 7 7 2, 0.1, 6.8, 6.84, 6.44 45,Buffalo State,_____________________ 6 9 2, -1.1, 7.9, 6.83, 6.49 46,Tufts,_____________________________ 5 8 1, -0.8, 7.5, 6.70, 6.50 47,Potsdam,___________________________ 6 8 2, -0.4, 7.0, 6.61, 5.22 48,Lawrence,__________________________ 6 10 1, -1.1, 7.6, 6.54, 5.51 49,Fredonia,__________________________ 4 7 4, -0.8, 7.3, 6.49, 7.67 50,Salve Regina,______________________ 5 7 2, 0.1, 6.3, 6.49, 6.58 51,St Olaf,___________________________ 4 11 2, -1.2, 7.6, 6.46, 5.76 52,New England College,_______________ 5 8 4, -0.4, 6.8, 6.44, 7.69 53,Wisconsin-Stout,___________________ 5 8 1, -1.1, 7.5, 6.42, 7.60 54,Castleton,_________________________ 5 11 0, -0.6, 7.0, 6.40, 6.73 55,Concordia (Wis),___________________ 6 11 0, -0.8, 7.1, 6.38, 5.49 56,Stonehill,_________________________ 8 4 2, 0.7, 5.6, 6.30, 6.88 57,St Michael's,______________________ 5 8 2, -0.7, 6.9, 6.21, 5.14 58,University of New England,_________ 6 9 1, -0.6, 6.6, 6.05, 6.90 59,Bethel,____________________________ 2 12 2, -1.9, 7.9, 6.03, 6.02 60,Plymouth State,____________________ 6 7 3, -0.1, 6.1, 5.95, 4.96 61,St Anselm,_________________________ 5 10 1, -0.8, 6.7, 5.92, 6.67 62,Suffolk,___________________________ 9 5 1, 0.3, 5.6, 5.85, 5.26 63,Wesleyan,__________________________ 2 12 0, -1.6, 7.5, 5.81, 5.50 64,Canton,____________________________ 5 11 1, -0.9, 6.6, 5.76, 6.52 65,Northland,_________________________ 2 13 2, -1.8, 7.5, 5.68, 6.28 66,So New Hampshire,__________________ 7 8 1, -0.2, 5.7, 5.55, 6.18 67,Wentworth,_________________________ 7 7 2, -0.8, 6.2, 5.46, 5.50 68,Salem State,_______________________ 7 7 1, 0.0, 5.3, 5.34, 4.62 69,Finlandia,_________________________ 3 13 1, -1.9, 7.2, 5.30, 5.26 70,Fitchburg State,___________________ 6 7 2, 0.3, 5.0, 5.23, 5.44 71,Aurora,____________________________ 2 13 1, -1.9, 7.2, 5.23, 6.17 72,Westfield State,___________________ 9 6 0, 0.3, 4.9, 5.20, 3.79 73,Skidmore,__________________________ 3 12 2, -1.6, 6.8, 5.13, 5.74 74,Assumption,________________________ 7 11 0, -0.3, 5.4, 5.12, 5.58 75,Southern Maine,____________________ 3 12 0, -2.2, 6.8, 4.65, 5.15 76,Massachusetts-Dartmouth,___________ 4 9 2, -1.2, 5.8, 4.63, 6.01 77,Becker,____________________________ 4 12 0, -1.4, 5.7, 4.29, 4.13 78,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 3 11 0, -1.9, 5.9, 4.05, 3.47 79,Western New England,_______________ 1 11 2, -2.0, 5.8, 3.76, 3.56 80,Framingham State,__________________ 2 10 2, -1.5, 5.0, 3.49, 2.60 81,Worcester State,___________________ 3 9 2, -1.5, 5.0, 3.46, 2.85 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Trinity,___________________________ 12 1 1, 0.8, 7.2, 7.94, 8.06 2,Wisconsin-Stevens Point,___________ 12 4 0, 0.5, 7.4, 7.85, 7.84 3,St Norbert,________________________ 13 1 2, 0.8, 7.1, 7.85, 7.62 4,Wisconsin-River Falls,_____________ 14 2 1, 0.7, 7.1, 7.85, 7.46 5,Amherst,___________________________ 10 3 2, 0.5, 7.3, 7.78, 7.83 6,Adrian,____________________________ 12 2 3, 0.6, 7.1, 7.73, 7.62 7,Oswego,____________________________ 10 2 3, 0.5, 7.2, 7.70, 7.59 8,Norwich,___________________________ 14 2 1, 0.7, 7.0, 7.70, 7.57 9,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 12 4 1, 0.5, 7.2, 7.69, 7.37 10,Williams,__________________________ 9 3 2, 0.4, 7.2, 7.62, 7.61 11,St Thomas,_________________________ 9 3 3, 0.4, 7.2, 7.61, 8.18 12,Wisconsin-Eau Claire,______________ 9 4 2, 0.3, 7.3, 7.60, 7.77 13,Hobart,____________________________ 11 5 0, 0.4, 7.2, 7.59, 7.84 14,Massachusetts-Boston,______________ 14 2 1, 0.7, 6.8, 7.55, 7.51 15,Babson,____________________________ 13 2 2, 0.6, 6.8, 7.49, 7.12 16,Utica,_____________________________ 8 5 3, 0.2, 7.3, 7.46, 7.85 17,Lake Forest,_______________________ 9 3 5, 0.4, 7.1, 7.46, 7.47 18,Concordia (Minn),__________________ 9 5 3, 0.2, 7.2, 7.45, 7.80 19,Elmira,____________________________ 8 5 3, 0.2, 7.3, 7.45, 7.57 20,Hamline,___________________________ 7 4 4, 0.2, 7.2, 7.42, 7.75 21,Nazareth,__________________________ 6 6 3, 0.0, 7.4, 7.42, 7.35 22,St John's,_________________________ 7 5 4, 0.1, 7.3, 7.40, 7.10 23,Bowdoin,___________________________ 8 4 2, 0.3, 7.1, 7.37, 7.17 24,Middlebury,________________________ 6 6 2, 0.0, 7.4, 7.36, 7.69 25,Neumann,___________________________ 8 5 3, 0.2, 7.2, 7.35, 7.08 26,Brockport,_________________________ 8 6 1, 0.1, 7.2, 7.31, 7.69 27,Connecticut College,_______________ 6 6 2, 0.0, 7.3, 7.28, 7.59 28,Geneseo,___________________________ 7 6 3, 0.1, 7.2, 7.28, 7.29 29,Hamilton,__________________________ 5 5 4, 0.0, 7.3, 7.27, 7.44 30,Augsburg,__________________________ 7 8 0, -0.1, 7.3, 7.21, 6.80 31,Nichols,___________________________ 11 3 2, 0.5, 6.7, 7.17, 7.43 32,St Scholastica,____________________ 8 7 2, 0.1, 7.1, 7.16, 7.12 33,Buffalo State,_____________________ 6 9 2, -0.2, 7.3, 7.14, 7.13 34,Milwaukee School of Engineering,___ 10 7 0, 0.2, 7.0, 7.13, 7.53 35,St Mary's,_________________________ 7 6 2, 0.1, 7.1, 7.13, 7.41 36,Curry,_____________________________ 9 5 2, 0.3, 6.9, 7.13, 7.67 37,Manhattanville,____________________ 6 6 4, 0.0, 7.1, 7.12, 6.99 38,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 5 6 6, -0.1, 7.1, 7.07, 7.13 39,Colby,_____________________________ 5 8 2, -0.2, 7.2, 7.03, 7.40 40,Marian,____________________________ 6 11 0, -0.3, 7.3, 7.01, 6.60 41,Daniel Webster,____________________ 3 0 0, 1.0, 6.0, 7.00 42,Tufts,_____________________________ 5 8 1, -0.2, 7.2, 6.97, 6.74 43,Morrisville,_______________________ 4 7 5, -0.2, 7.1, 6.96, 6.37 44,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 9 6 1, 0.2, 6.8, 6.95, 7.36 45,Cortland,__________________________ 7 7 2, 0.0, 6.9, 6.94, 6.83 46,Fredonia,__________________________ 4 7 4, -0.2, 7.1, 6.91, 7.06 47,Wisconsin-Stout,___________________ 5 8 1, -0.2, 7.1, 6.91, 7.26 48,Lawrence,__________________________ 6 10 1, -0.2, 7.1, 6.91, 6.75 49,Potsdam,___________________________ 6 8 2, -0.1, 7.0, 6.89, 6.28 50,Stonehill,_________________________ 8 4 2, 0.3, 6.6, 6.85, 6.86 51,Suffolk,___________________________ 9 5 1, 0.3, 6.5, 6.80, 6.43 52,St Olaf,___________________________ 4 11 2, -0.4, 7.2, 6.80, 6.67 53,Wisconsin-Superior,________________ 7 10 0, -0.2, 7.0, 6.80, 6.76 54,St Michael's,______________________ 5 8 2, -0.2, 7.0, 6.78, 6.29 55,New England College,_______________ 5 8 4, -0.2, 6.9, 6.75, 7.17 56,Wentworth,_________________________ 7 7 2, 0.0, 6.8, 6.75, 6.79 57,Concordia (Wis),___________________ 6 11 0, -0.3, 7.0, 6.70, 6.53 58,Salve Regina,______________________ 5 7 2, -0.1, 6.8, 6.67, 6.62 59,University of New England,_________ 6 9 1, -0.2, 6.8, 6.66, 7.05 60,Bethel,____________________________ 2 12 2, -0.6, 7.3, 6.65, 6.57 61,Plymouth State,____________________ 6 7 3, -0.1, 6.7, 6.63, 6.34 62,Castleton,_________________________ 5 11 0, -0.4, 7.0, 6.63, 6.72 63,St Anselm,_________________________ 5 10 1, -0.3, 6.9, 6.58, 6.46 64,Canton,____________________________ 5 11 1, -0.4, 6.9, 6.56, 7.13 65,So New Hampshire,__________________ 7 8 1, -0.1, 6.6, 6.53, 6.87 66,Wesleyan,__________________________ 2 12 0, -0.7, 7.2, 6.51, 6.24 67,Westfield State,___________________ 9 6 0, 0.2, 6.3, 6.50, 6.15 68,Salem State,_______________________ 7 7 1, 0.0, 6.5, 6.49, 6.14 69,Northland,_________________________ 2 13 2, -0.6, 7.1, 6.47, 6.45 70,Finlandia,_________________________ 3 13 1, -0.6, 7.0, 6.42, 6.21 71,Skidmore,__________________________ 3 12 2, -0.5, 6.9, 6.40, 6.55 72,Southern Maine,____________________ 3 12 0, -0.6, 6.9, 6.33, 6.62 73,Massachusetts-Dartmouth,___________ 4 9 2, -0.3, 6.6, 6.30, 6.51 74,Assumption,________________________ 7 11 0, -0.2, 6.5, 6.29, 6.61 75,Fitchburg State,___________________ 6 7 2, -0.1, 6.4, 6.29, 6.44 76,Aurora,____________________________ 2 13 1, -0.7, 6.9, 6.26, 6.45 77,Becker,____________________________ 4 12 0, -0.5, 6.6, 6.09, 6.08 78,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 3 11 0, -0.6, 6.6, 6.06, 5.85 79,Western New England,_______________ 1 11 2, -0.7, 6.6, 5.93, 5.94 80,Worcester State,___________________ 3 9 2, -0.4, 6.3, 5.90, 5.90 81,Framingham State,__________________ 2 10 2, -0.6, 6.4, 5.78, 5.45 The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 7. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States  High School National Rankings  New England Prep  Midget Minor AAA  Midget Major AAA  Men's NCAA D1  USHL  NAHL  ACHA College Club

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