Men's NCAA Division 3 Hockey Rankings

Scores (sorted by team) through March 1, 2015 courtesy of USCHO.com . Disclaimer: The D3 rankings are new and it is unclear to me how well connected the East/West schedules are and therefore still unclear how accurate the relative rankings between regions are. Previous Rankings  New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Maximum Goal Differential = 4 2013 National Champions: Wisconsin-Eau Claire See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Adrian,____________________________ 22 3 3, 2.1, 7.6, 9.71, 10.71 2,Wisconsin-Stevens Point,___________ 21 5 1, 1.6, 8.1, 9.65, 10.34 3,Wisconsin-Eau Claire,______________ 18 7 2, 1.3, 8.2, 9.43, 9.34 4,St Norbert,________________________ 20 5 2, 1.9, 7.5, 9.41, 9.49 5,Trinity,___________________________ 21 3 1, 2.0, 7.3, 9.30, 8.78 6,Norwich,___________________________ 23 3 1, 2.6, 6.7, 9.29, 8.93 7,Hobart,____________________________ 20 6 0, 1.4, 7.7, 9.16, 9.80 8,Oswego,____________________________ 18 3 4, 1.9, 7.3, 9.16, 8.38 9,Amherst,___________________________ 19 4 2, 1.4, 7.6, 9.04, 10.63 10,Wisconsin-River Falls,_____________ 19 7 1, 1.1, 8.0, 9.03, 8.77 11,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 19 5 2, 1.7, 7.4, 9.01, 9.49 12,St Thomas,_________________________ 16 6 4, 1.2, 7.8, 8.97, 7.47 13,Lake Forest,_______________________ 15 7 5, 0.9, 7.6, 8.49, 7.50 14,Neumann,___________________________ 14 8 4, 0.8, 7.7, 8.46, 9.97 15,Concordia (Minn),__________________ 13 9 4, 0.6, 7.8, 8.37, 8.20 16,Nazareth,__________________________ 12 10 5, 0.2, 8.1, 8.31, 7.29 17,Babson,____________________________ 19 5 3, 1.6, 6.7, 8.24, 7.77 18,St John's,_________________________ 11 9 5, 0.4, 7.9, 8.23, 7.68 19,Massachusetts-Boston,______________ 22 4 1, 1.6, 6.6, 8.22, 8.38 20,St Mary's,_________________________ 15 9 2, 0.6, 7.6, 8.22, 8.22 21,Utica,_____________________________ 11 10 5, 0.2, 7.9, 8.17, 7.29 22,Bowdoin,___________________________ 14 8 3, 1.0, 7.2, 8.17, 7.77 23,Milwaukee School of Engineering,___ 17 11 0, 0.6, 7.5, 8.12, 8.47 24,Geneseo,___________________________ 12 10 4, 0.6, 7.5, 8.06, 7.85 25,Connecticut College,_______________ 14 9 2, 0.4, 7.6, 8.02, 8.04 26,Hamline,___________________________ 13 10 4, -0.1, 8.1, 8.00, 8.83 27,Elmira,____________________________ 12 12 3, 0.0, 8.0, 8.00, 8.17 28,Williams,__________________________ 15 8 2, 0.4, 7.6, 7.98, 6.85 29,St Scholastica,____________________ 12 13 3, 0.3, 7.7, 7.97, 7.80 30,Augsburg,__________________________ 12 14 0, -0.2, 8.0, 7.87, 7.67 31,Hamilton,__________________________ 9 10 6, 0.3, 7.5, 7.75, 8.30 32,Marian,____________________________ 14 12 1, 0.0, 7.7, 7.66, 8.40 33,Middlebury,________________________ 10 12 3, -0.3, 7.9, 7.65, 7.56 34,Nichols,___________________________ 19 3 3, 1.9, 5.6, 7.56, 7.67 35,Brockport,_________________________ 13 12 2, 0.1, 7.3, 7.46, 7.34 36,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 8 9 8, -0.2, 7.6, 7.44, 7.52 37,Wisconsin-Superior,________________ 9 18 1, -0.5, 7.9, 7.41, 7.77 38,Buffalo State,_____________________ 12 12 3, -0.4, 7.7, 7.34, 9.32 39,Potsdam,___________________________ 12 11 3, -0.1, 7.1, 7.03, 8.59 40,Wisconsin-Stout,___________________ 8 17 1, -1.0, 7.9, 6.95, 6.46 41,Manhattanville,____________________ 7 14 5, -0.8, 7.7, 6.90, 6.08 42,Tufts,_____________________________ 9 14 2, -0.8, 7.6, 6.84, 7.75 43,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 15 10 1, 1.0, 5.7, 6.73, 7.43 44,St Olaf,___________________________ 6 16 3, -1.0, 7.7, 6.68, 6.74 45,Castleton,_________________________ 11 16 0, -0.3, 6.9, 6.67, 6.67 46,Salve Regina,______________________ 11 9 3, 0.5, 6.1, 6.61, 7.02 47,Morrisville,_______________________ 7 12 5, -0.8, 7.3, 6.53, 5.25 48,Colby,_____________________________ 5 16 3, -1.0, 7.5, 6.50, 5.32 49,Curry,_____________________________ 15 9 2, 0.4, 6.0, 6.46, 7.56 50,Cortland,__________________________ 9 13 3, -0.5, 6.9, 6.41, 6.02 51,New England College,_______________ 9 12 5, -0.2, 6.6, 6.39, 6.29 52,Concordia (Wis),___________________ 8 19 0, -1.2, 7.5, 6.30, 6.34 53,Bethel,____________________________ 4 19 2, -1.8, 8.0, 6.22, 7.46 54,University of New England,_________ 9 14 2, -0.6, 6.8, 6.18, 6.72 55,Lawrence,__________________________ 7 19 1, -1.8, 7.9, 6.11, 5.03 56,Stonehill,_________________________ 14 6 4, 1.0, 5.0, 6.08, 6.02 57,St Anselm,_________________________ 11 13 3, -0.4, 6.4, 6.07, 6.26 58,Northland,_________________________ 3 18 4, -1.7, 7.7, 6.05, 6.08 59,Plymouth State,____________________ 14 8 3, 0.6, 5.4, 6.00, 5.68 60,Fredonia,__________________________ 4 16 5, -1.4, 7.3, 5.87, 4.84 61,St Michael's,______________________ 9 16 2, -0.7, 6.5, 5.80, 5.55 62,Finlandia,_________________________ 5 19 1, -1.7, 7.5, 5.80, 6.13 63,Wesleyan,__________________________ 3 21 0, -1.9, 7.6, 5.70, 5.98 64,Canton,____________________________ 8 16 1, -0.8, 6.3, 5.53, 4.55 65,Skidmore,__________________________ 4 19 3, -1.6, 7.0, 5.36, 4.93 66,Wentworth,_________________________ 11 12 3, -0.6, 5.9, 5.33, 5.05 67,Salem State,_______________________ 12 10 3, 0.3, 5.0, 5.29, 5.08 68,Suffolk,___________________________ 11 13 2, -0.4, 5.6, 5.17, 4.15 69,Southern Maine,____________________ 6 19 1, -1.9, 7.0, 5.15, 6.33 70,Aurora,____________________________ 1 15 1, -2.4, 7.5, 5.13, 4.64 71,So New Hampshire,__________________ 10 12 2, -0.3, 5.3, 4.96, 4.54 72,Fitchburg State,___________________ 10 13 3, -0.1, 4.8, 4.64, 3.87 73,Assumption,________________________ 8 16 0, -0.5, 5.1, 4.55, 3.31 74,Massachusetts-Dartmouth,___________ 8 15 3, -0.9, 5.4, 4.50, 4.60 75,Westfield State,___________________ 12 12 2, -0.3, 4.7, 4.42, 3.71 76,Western New England,_______________ 5 16 3, -1.5, 5.8, 4.35, 4.53 77,Worcester State,___________________ 9 15 2, -0.5, 4.7, 4.20, 5.96 78,Becker,____________________________ 5 20 0, -1.8, 5.8, 3.99, 4.01 79,Framingham State,__________________ 6 16 2, -1.2, 4.9, 3.66, 4.52 80,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 3 20 1, -2.2, 5.7, 3.50, 3.62 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Wisconsin-Stevens Point,___________ 21 5 1, 0.6, 7.3, 7.89, 8.08 2,Trinity,___________________________ 21 3 1, 0.7, 7.1, 7.86, 7.43 3,Adrian,____________________________ 22 3 3, 0.7, 7.2, 7.84, 8.10 4,Amherst,___________________________ 19 4 2, 0.6, 7.2, 7.83, 8.28 5,Hobart,____________________________ 20 6 0, 0.5, 7.3, 7.79, 8.21 6,Wisconsin-Eau Claire,______________ 18 7 2, 0.4, 7.4, 7.77, 7.80 7,Wisconsin-River Falls,_____________ 19 7 1, 0.4, 7.3, 7.72, 7.43 8,Oswego,____________________________ 18 3 4, 0.6, 7.1, 7.72, 7.68 9,St Norbert,________________________ 20 5 2, 0.6, 7.2, 7.71, 7.82 10,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 19 5 2, 0.5, 7.1, 7.68, 7.75 11,Norwich,___________________________ 23 3 1, 0.7, 6.9, 7.67, 7.54 12,St Thomas,_________________________ 16 6 4, 0.4, 7.2, 7.62, 7.28 13,Massachusetts-Boston,______________ 22 4 1, 0.7, 6.9, 7.55, 7.57 14,Williams,__________________________ 15 8 2, 0.3, 7.2, 7.48, 7.17 15,Neumann,___________________________ 14 8 4, 0.2, 7.2, 7.47, 7.94 16,Lake Forest,_______________________ 15 7 5, 0.3, 7.2, 7.46, 7.27 17,Nazareth,__________________________ 12 10 5, 0.1, 7.4, 7.46, 6.95 18,Babson,____________________________ 19 5 3, 0.5, 6.9, 7.44, 7.61 19,Hamline,___________________________ 13 10 4, 0.1, 7.3, 7.43, 7.58 20,Connecticut College,_______________ 14 9 2, 0.2, 7.2, 7.42, 7.45 21,Concordia (Minn),__________________ 13 9 4, 0.2, 7.2, 7.39, 7.17 22,St Mary's,_________________________ 15 9 2, 0.2, 7.2, 7.39, 8.01 23,Utica,_____________________________ 11 10 5, 0.0, 7.3, 7.37, 7.05 24,Bowdoin,___________________________ 14 8 3, 0.2, 7.1, 7.36, 7.06 25,St John's,_________________________ 11 9 5, 0.1, 7.3, 7.35, 7.02 26,Elmira,____________________________ 12 12 3, 0.0, 7.3, 7.34, 7.34 27,Milwaukee School of Engineering,___ 17 11 0, 0.2, 7.1, 7.32, 7.33 28,Geneseo,___________________________ 12 10 4, 0.1, 7.2, 7.26, 7.11 29,Middlebury,________________________ 10 12 3, -0.1, 7.3, 7.26, 7.36 30,Augsburg,__________________________ 12 14 0, -0.1, 7.3, 7.25, 6.99 31,Marian,____________________________ 14 12 1, 0.1, 7.2, 7.24, 7.71 32,Buffalo State,_____________________ 12 12 3, 0.0, 7.2, 7.23, 7.57 33,Nichols,___________________________ 19 3 3, 0.6, 6.6, 7.20, 7.32 34,St Scholastica,____________________ 12 13 3, -0.0, 7.2, 7.16, 6.85 35,Brockport,_________________________ 13 12 2, 0.0, 7.1, 7.16, 7.32 36,Hamilton,__________________________ 9 10 6, -0.0, 7.2, 7.15, 7.32 37,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 8 9 8, -0.0, 7.2, 7.14, 7.21 38,Potsdam,___________________________ 12 11 3, 0.0, 7.1, 7.09, 7.72 39,Tufts,_____________________________ 9 14 2, -0.2, 7.2, 7.02, 7.39 40,Manhattanville,____________________ 7 14 5, -0.3, 7.3, 7.00, 6.59 41,Wisconsin-Superior,________________ 9 18 1, -0.3, 7.3, 6.97, 7.50 42,Curry,_____________________________ 15 9 2, 0.2, 6.7, 6.95, 7.34 43,Wisconsin-Stout,___________________ 8 17 1, -0.3, 7.3, 6.92, 6.43 44,Morrisville,_______________________ 7 12 5, -0.2, 7.1, 6.91, 6.65 45,St Olaf,___________________________ 6 16 3, -0.4, 7.2, 6.83, 6.53 46,Salve Regina,______________________ 11 9 3, 0.1, 6.7, 6.82, 7.03 47,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 15 10 1, 0.2, 6.6, 6.82, 6.93 48,Cortland,__________________________ 9 13 3, -0.2, 7.0, 6.81, 6.53 49,Lawrence,__________________________ 7 19 1, -0.4, 7.3, 6.81, 6.68 50,Castleton,_________________________ 11 16 0, -0.2, 7.0, 6.80, 6.95 51,New England College,_______________ 9 12 5, -0.1, 6.9, 6.77, 6.80 52,Colby,_____________________________ 5 16 3, -0.5, 7.2, 6.76, 6.39 53,St Anselm,_________________________ 11 13 3, -0.1, 6.8, 6.74, 7.04 54,University of New England,_________ 9 14 2, -0.2, 6.9, 6.73, 6.66 55,Bethel,____________________________ 4 19 2, -0.6, 7.3, 6.72, 7.12 56,Concordia (Wis),___________________ 8 19 0, -0.4, 7.1, 6.71, 6.78 57,Plymouth State,____________________ 14 8 3, 0.2, 6.5, 6.70, 6.70 58,Stonehill,_________________________ 14 6 4, 0.3, 6.4, 6.69, 6.70 59,Fredonia,__________________________ 4 16 5, -0.5, 7.1, 6.63, 6.31 60,Wentworth,_________________________ 11 12 3, -0.0, 6.6, 6.61, 6.57 61,Northland,_________________________ 3 18 4, -0.6, 7.2, 6.59, 6.60 62,St Michael's,______________________ 9 16 2, -0.3, 6.8, 6.58, 6.32 63,Finlandia,_________________________ 5 19 1, -0.6, 7.1, 6.56, 6.48 64,Wesleyan,__________________________ 3 21 0, -0.8, 7.3, 6.51, 6.82 65,Southern Maine,____________________ 6 19 1, -0.5, 7.0, 6.50, 6.68 66,Suffolk,___________________________ 11 13 2, -0.1, 6.5, 6.47, 6.05 67,Canton,____________________________ 8 16 1, -0.3, 6.8, 6.45, 6.19 68,Salem State,_______________________ 12 10 3, 0.1, 6.4, 6.44, 6.30 69,Skidmore,__________________________ 4 19 3, -0.6, 7.0, 6.43, 6.08 70,So New Hampshire,__________________ 10 12 2, -0.1, 6.4, 6.34, 6.03 71,Aurora,____________________________ 1 15 1, -0.8, 7.1, 6.31, 6.18 72,Westfield State,___________________ 12 12 2, 0.0, 6.2, 6.24, 5.83 73,Massachusetts-Dartmouth,___________ 8 15 3, -0.3, 6.5, 6.21, 6.34 74,Western New England,_______________ 5 16 3, -0.5, 6.6, 6.18, 6.30 75,Fitchburg State,___________________ 10 13 3, -0.1, 6.3, 6.16, 5.80 76,Assumption,________________________ 8 16 0, -0.3, 6.4, 6.05, 5.70 77,Worcester State,___________________ 9 15 2, -0.2, 6.3, 6.03, 6.90 78,Becker,____________________________ 5 20 0, -0.6, 6.6, 6.01, 6.16 79,Framingham State,__________________ 6 16 2, -0.4, 6.3, 5.88, 6.11 80,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 3 20 1, -0.7, 6.5, 5.84, 5.79 The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 7. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States  High School National Rankings  New England Prep  Midget Minor AAA  Midget Major AAA  Men's NCAA D1  USHL  NAHL  ACHA College Club

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