Minnesota falls to #2 State in NHLers, after 11 years at #1

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Mitch Hawker
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Minnesota falls to #2 State in NHLers, after 11 years at #1

Post by Mitch Hawker » Thu Apr 16, 2015 4:06 pm

By birthplace according to http://www.quanthockey.com/TS/TS_USPlayers.php

Michigan was #1 in 2014-15 with 17.2% of the American born NHLers, this is the first year that Michigan has been #1 in this metric since 1970-71 when the grand total of 9 Americans who played in the NHL that season consisted of 3 from Michigan, 2 from Mass, 2 from Ohio, 1 from NY. and 1 from Minnesota (Tom Williams).

Minnesota # 2 at 16.7%

New York #3 at 11.8%

Massachusetts #4 at 7.2%

The graph is pretty interesting, going all the way back to 1970-71 when, as mentioned above, there were only 9 American born NHLers (there were ~240 American born players this season).

Minnesota was #1 from 1971-72 season until 1984-85.

Mass took over at #1 in 1985-86 basically through 2002 -2003 season with Minnesota close behind the whole time (Minnesota was actually #1 in 86-87 and tied for #1 in 94-95), then Minnesota was #1 from 2003-2004 through 2013-2014.

Massachusetts has fallen from 22% in 02-03 to 7.2% this season! Meanwhile, Michigan has steadily climbed from 11.2% in 01-02 to 17.2% this season.

The difference between Michigan and Minnesota this year amounts to one more Michigan born player who played in the NHL this year, 40 for Michigan, 39 for Minnesota. Obviously, the birthplace metric is imperfect as e.g. TJ Oshie was born in Washington.

The nationality chart on that site is also informative.
http://www.quanthockey.com/TS/TS_Player ... lities.php

The NHL is now "only" 50.3% Canadian. Next year will likely be the year that the league is under 50% Canadian for the first time.

Meanwhile, Americans are poised to top 25% for the first time.
Last edited by Mitch Hawker on Fri Apr 17, 2015 11:32 am, edited 3 times in total.

Sats81
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Re: Minnesota falls to #2 State in NHLers, after 11 years at

Post by Sats81 » Thu Apr 16, 2015 4:16 pm

Mitch Hawker wrote:By birthplace according to http://www.quanthockey.com/TS/TS_USPlayers.php

Michigan was #1 in 2014-15 with 17.2% of the American born NHLers, this is the first year that Michigan has been #1 in this metric since 1970-71 when the the grand total of 9 Americans who played in the NHL that season consisted of 3 from Michigan, 2 from Mass, 2 from Ohio, 1 from NY. and 1 from Minnesota (Tom Williams).

Minnesota # 2 at 16.7%

New York #3 at 11.8%

Massachusetts #4 at 7.2%

The graph is pretty interesting, going all the way back to 1970-71 when, as mentioned above, there were only 9 American born NHLers.

Minnesota was #1 from 1971-72 season until 1984-85.

Mass took over at #1 in 1985-86 basically through 2002 -2003 season with Minnesota close behind the whole time (Minnesota was actually #1 in 86-87 and tied for #1 in 94-95), then Minnesota was #1 from 2003-2004 through 2013-2014.

Massachusetts has fallen from 22% in 02-03 to 7.2% this season! Meanwhile, Michigan has steadily climbed from 11.2% in 01-02 to 17.2% this season.

The difference between Michigan and Minnesota this year amounts to one more Michigan born player who played in the NHL this year, 42 for Michigan, 41 for Minnesota. Obviously, the birthplace metric is imperfect as e.g. TJ Oshie was born in Washington.

The nationality chart on that site is also informative.
http://www.quanthockey.com/TS/TS_Player ... lities.php

The NHL is now "only" 50.3% Canadian. Next year will likely be the year that the league is under 50% Canadian for the first time while Americans are poised to crack 25% for the first time.
Very interesting

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Post by Mitch Hawker » Thu Apr 16, 2015 4:30 pm

FWIW

Minnesota is still #1 in D1 College players by a good margin....according to College Hockey Inc

http://sportdesigns.com/chinc/links/201 ... ia_Kit.pdf

Minnesota – 203
Michigan – 151
Massachusetts – 112
New York – 81
Illinois – 61
Pennsylvania, New Jersey – 52
California – 50

WestMetro
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Post by WestMetro » Thu Apr 16, 2015 5:13 pm

This data should remind Minn youth hockey suits that Minn cant rest on its laurels.

Minn "organic" youth hockey growth rate is pretty small. We need to constantly work the organic base just to maintain, much less grow.

So, we need to find ways to expand the youth hockey base beyond that.
Minn needs to attract more mobile hockey oriented families to move here with their youngsters. Scandinavia, Midwest/Western USA, Western Ontario and Manitoba would be some natural markets to pursue.. Notable hockey families have already come to Minnesota from all those locations but we need more.

To do so requires a comprehensive MinnHock & all public/private affilliates aggressive marketing plan to attract more mobile families into Minnesota youth hockey. Also, retaining and further improving facilities, and retaining best youth, high school and AAA coaches and attracting new ones as elder statesmen retire. Need to make it worthwhile for the coaches. And they need way more administrative support nowadays compared to the elder statesman, who typically came from a one worker family with less overall family activities going on.

It would help if the Wild, Gophers, UMD, Mankato, St Cloud,Bemidji could get even deeper into playoffs every year. This would increase the national publicity and reputation of Minnesota for attracting more young hockey families.

Would help to convince USA Hockey that NTDP is better marketed from thriving and full employment Minnesota, compared to the southern Michigan bankrupt rustbelt and its overhyped university town.

Would also help if Greater Rochester metro, with above average median income, could rejumpstart/rejuvenate youth hockey to match the competitive teams of the past. Relocation of NTDP to Rochester could be a huge part of that jump start. $5 billion in Rochester infrastructure funding exists as part of the downtown Mayo expansion. Just imagine Mayo putting its logo on a brand new NTDP hockey facility in downtown Rochester or near downtown location.

LuVerne has been a great example of what can be achieved if everything goes right. Greater SouthWest Minnesota should figure out how to permanently capitalize on that momentum

Just a few rambling thoughts....I hate to see Michigan pass us up. I hope their are some mistakes in the data. Or maybe a few up them are from the UP, in which case doesnt hurt as much

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Post by goldy313 » Thu Apr 16, 2015 9:53 pm

WestMetro wrote:
Would also help if Greater Rochester metro, with above average median income, could rejumpstart/rejuvenate youth hockey to match the competitive teams of the past. Relocation of NTDP to Rochester could be a huge part of that jump start. $5 billion in Rochester infrastructure funding exists as part of the downtown Mayo expansion. Just imagine Mayo putting its logo on a brand new NTDP hockey facility in downtown Rochester or near downtown location.
No chance, Rochester is following the same path Minneapolis has in terms of hockey. There is a growing disparity between the have and have not, 20 years ago the F/R lunch rates were in the single digits and now they're around 33%, the middle school rates are 40%. IBM families historically have produced the most hockey players and IBM is pretty much gone now. The Mayo expansion will largely be in service sector jobs, low paying low benefit jobs, not high paying Mayo jobs, though there will be some of those as well but probably no where near the number of good paying jobs lost through IBM downsizing.

The pool of families that can support hockey is shrinking rather alarmingly, whether Century can survive alone another 3 years is pretty debatable right now. Lourdes numbers aren't overwhelming either. Wrestling is growing as is basketball at the youth levels, hockey and football are on the decline. Bringing in any type of advanced hockey program won't change that metric, hockey is just not affordable to the growing segment of families in Olmsted County. The Mayo Clinic families who can afford hockey are, generally, not your traditional hockey families and never have been, they're from elsewhere, either out of state or out of country and gravitate towards swimming or soccer.....the swim clubs are growing so fast they need to rent hotel pools for a place to swim right now.

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Post by hockeyfan893 » Fri Apr 17, 2015 2:20 am

What follows will of course be a rather unpopular sentiment, but I hope what I have to say might prove cogent to the few rational thinkers that populate this forum.

This revelation should mean absolutely nothing for Minnesota Youth Hockey, whatever that generic term encompasses. The goal of 'Minnesota youth hockey' is not to produce cannon fodder for division one or NHL hockey. Nor should the metric for Minnesota youth hockey be the number of eventual NHL players that happen to have played, at a point early in their personal and athletic development, had their parents sign them up for youth hockey.

Youth hockey in Minnesota should strive to be nothing more than an affordable and enjoyable opportunity for kids and their families to participate in a sport loved by many in our state. Why on earth should the goal of youth hockey be to attract families to the state? The very notion is absurd. Youth hockey is not, nor should it be, responsible for poaching 'talent' from other countries or states. Seriously? A coordinated effort that spans youth leagues, private schools, and public schools to aggressively market youth hockey to families outside of the state? What kind of nonsense is this?

I have much to say on this, and look forward to presenting my thoughts on this through continued discussion.

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Post by InigoMontoya » Fri Apr 17, 2015 7:25 am

The task of USA Hockey is a tough one.
They administer youth hockey across the country.
They develop a national team that can compete on a global scale.
Focus on the former drives success on the latter; focus on the latter can undermine the success of the former.

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Post by Mitch Hawker » Fri Apr 17, 2015 8:20 am

Sad to see and hear the state of Rochester hockey. It was a great hockey town at one time with Graham Arena absolutely packed for high school games.

There were a lot of 2nd generation players, sons of players from the old Rochester Mustangs Semi-Pro team (e.g. Johannson, Reichart, Strobel, Teal, Aikens) that elevated the level of play. There were future Olympians (Yurkovich, Brooks,..), future pros (Nanne, Gambucci, ...), a future state championship coach (Sack), the future MSHSL coaching wins leader (Grosso), and even a future 'Miracle' worker on those Rochester Mustang Semi-Pro teams.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leag ... 71963.html

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Post by The Exiled One » Fri Apr 17, 2015 11:13 am

A few facts to consider regarding this topic...

• For players appearing in the NHL this season, the average draft position of a MN forward is 65.9
• The average draft position of a MI forward is 88.6
• The career average PPG for a MN forward is 0.54
• The career average PPG for a MI forward is 0.41
• The average draft position of a MN defenseman is 66.7
• The average draft position of a MI defenseman is 94.5
• The career average PPG for a MN defenseman is 0.34
• The career average PPG for a MI defenseman is 0.30
• The career aggregate +/- for MN skaters is +160
• The career aggregate +/- for MI skaters is +8
Last edited by The Exiled One on Fri Apr 17, 2015 11:45 am, edited 1 time in total.

Mitch Hawker
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Post by Mitch Hawker » Fri Apr 17, 2015 11:36 am

The Exiled One wrote:A few facts to consider regarding this topic...

• Goligoski is listed as a MI player. Flip him to MN, and we take back the lead.
Goligoski is on the Minnesota list:
http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/us-state ... stats.html

Oshie, as mentioned above, is not.

Minnesotans did score almost twice as many goals this year as Michiganders
http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/state-to ... stats.html

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Post by The Exiled One » Fri Apr 17, 2015 11:49 am

Mitch Hawker wrote:Goligoski is on the Minnesota list
Oops, fixed. I used this list which has slightly different data.

Still though, just wanted to make the point that the quality of Minnesota hockey is better in aggregate. We simply have fewer marginal players this year than Michigan has.

WestMetro
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Post by WestMetro » Fri Apr 17, 2015 2:39 pm

My whole point in responding to the original data was to precipitate some discussion about the current and future trends in youth hockey and high school and AAA hockey in Minnesota. Re regarding Rochester, I know the state of the demographics within the city itself, but you will notice I mentioned greater Rochester and southeast Minnesota area. For example Pine Island is rapidly transitioning from a farm Community to a bedroom community with very high land prices and higher than average incomes. With some marketing efforts, Minn Hock and related public and private affiliates should be able to attract existing familiesand promote newly relocating families Into youth hoc

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Post by WestMetro » Fri Apr 17, 2015 2:56 pm

Hockey fan 893. Would you object if Lou Nanne helped fill a Minneapolis bank executive vacancy with an individual from Toronto who has hockey playing kids? Would you object if a Hockey dad physician assisted mayo clinic in filling a RoChester Doctor Vacancy with individual from Finland who has hockey playing kids? Would you object if the Stillwater or Chan Hassan chamber of commerce solicited small businesses owners in St. Louis, Phoenix, orange county to relocate to Minnesota, if they happen to have young hockeyplayers in their family and also friends who might move as well?

Sats81
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Post by Sats81 » Fri Apr 17, 2015 3:18 pm

WestMetro wrote:This data should remind Minn youth hockey suits that Minn cant rest on its laurels.

Minn "organic" youth hockey growth rate is pretty small. We need to constantly work the organic base just to maintain, much less grow.

So, we need to find ways to expand the youth hockey base beyond that.
Minn needs to attract more mobile hockey oriented families to move here with their youngsters. Scandinavia, Midwest/Western USA, Western Ontario and Manitoba would be some natural markets to pursue.. Notable hockey families have already come to Minnesota from all those locations but we need more.

To do so requires a comprehensive MinnHock & all public/private affilliates aggressive marketing plan to attract more mobile families into Minnesota youth hockey. Also, retaining and further improving facilities, and retaining best youth, high school and AAA coaches and attracting new ones as elder statesmen retire. Need to make it worthwhile for the coaches. And they need way more administrative support nowadays compared to the elder statesman, who typically came from a one worker family with less overall family activities going on.

It would help if the Wild, Gophers, UMD, Mankato, St Cloud,Bemidji could get even deeper into playoffs every year. This would increase the national publicity and reputation of Minnesota for attracting more young hockey families.

Would help to convince USA Hockey that NTDP is better marketed from thriving and full employment Minnesota, compared to the southern Michigan bankrupt rustbelt and its overhyped university town.

Would also help if Greater Rochester metro, with above average median income, could rejumpstart/rejuvenate youth hockey to match the competitive teams of the past. Relocation of NTDP to Rochester could be a huge part of that jump start. $5 billion in Rochester infrastructure funding exists as part of the downtown Mayo expansion. Just imagine Mayo putting its logo on a brand new NTDP hockey facility in downtown Rochester or near downtown location.

LuVerne has been a great example of what can be achieved if everything goes right. Greater SouthWest Minnesota should figure out how to permanently capitalize on that momentum

Just a few rambling thoughts....I hate to see Michigan pass us up. I hope their are some mistakes in the data. Or maybe a few up them are from the UP, in which case doesnt hurt as much
I think you have officially lost your mind.

Sats81
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Post by Sats81 » Fri Apr 17, 2015 3:20 pm

hockeyfan893 wrote:What follows will of course be a rather unpopular sentiment, but I hope what I have to say might prove cogent to the few rational thinkers that populate this forum.

This revelation should mean absolutely nothing for Minnesota Youth Hockey, whatever that generic term encompasses. The goal of 'Minnesota youth hockey' is not to produce cannon fodder for division one or NHL hockey. Nor should the metric for Minnesota youth hockey be the number of eventual NHL players that happen to have played, at a point early in their personal and athletic development, had their parents sign them up for youth hockey.

Youth hockey in Minnesota should strive to be nothing more than an affordable and enjoyable opportunity for kids and their families to participate in a sport loved by many in our state. Why on earth should the goal of youth hockey be to attract families to the state? The very notion is absurd. Youth hockey is not, nor should it be, responsible for poaching 'talent' from other countries or states. Seriously? A coordinated effort that spans youth leagues, private schools, and public schools to aggressively market youth hockey to families outside of the state? What kind of nonsense is this?

I have much to say on this, and look forward to presenting my thoughts on this through continued discussion.
Excellent post. Everything you have said here is spot on.

hockeyfan893
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Post by hockeyfan893 » Sat Apr 18, 2015 1:58 am

WestMetro wrote:Hockey fan 893. Would you object if Lou Nanne helped fill a Minneapolis bank executive vacancy with an individual from Toronto who has hockey playing kids? Would you object if a Hockey dad physician assisted mayo clinic in filling a RoChester Doctor Vacancy with individual from Finland who has hockey playing kids? Would you object if the Stillwater or Chan Hassan chamber of commerce solicited small businesses owners in St. Louis, Phoenix, orange county to relocate to Minnesota, if they happen to have young hockeyplayers in their family and also friends who might move as well?
If you will, please try to keep up. I have no patience for willful idiocy.

1) If said bank executive from Toronto has hockey playing kids is not the most capable, intelligent, deserving, qualified individual for his employment as a bank executive, then absolutely I would have a problem with it. 100%.

2) If said M.D. from Finland is not the most capable, intelligent, humanitarian, deserving, qualified individual for his position at Mayo - and speaking as an applicant to Mayo medical school - I absolutely would have a problem with it. 100%.

3) If the aforementioned chambers of commerce solicited small business owners in St. Louis, Phoenix, and Orange County to relocate to Minnesota, and their businesses did not surpass the stringent meritocratic qualifications independent of hockey playing children, then absolutely I would have a problem with it. 100%.

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