AA Rankings for 2/7/10

[karl(east)]

Time for another set of rankings from our nation’s snowbound capital. Of course it looks like a normal winter day for a kid who grew up in Duluth, instead of the “Snowpocalypse,” as the DCites have termed it. I am having a lot of fun at their expense.

Speaking of fun, it’s time for the oft-repeated disclaimer to return: these rankings are done in the spirit of fun and to provide some good discussion. Let’s all keep that in mind. Last week’s died a bit prematurely, so let’s keep it going.

There are two added features this week. First, there’s a second record next to the team names; that’s the team’s record in games decided by 2 goals or less. In a perfect world I’d have included 3-goal EN losses, but I’m afraid I don’t have them recorded. The second, back by popular demand, is the “need” feature, which I hope is self-explanatory. As usual, these additions don’t necessarily mean anything in terms of the rankings; they’re just there as something to mull over.

1. Minnetonka (20-0-1/3-0-1)
-*Yawn.*
Need: To take control of games. For as great a team as they are, Tonka really doesn’t control play the way one might expect; good teams can clearly win the possession battle against them. If this team loses, I suspect it will be a low-scoring game in which the other team spends a lot of time in their zone and gets a few good bounces.
This week: Thurs at #9 Edina, Sat at Armstrong

2. Wayzata (16-2-2/8-2-2)
-Three wins over Edina in a season is most impressive and gives the high ranking even more legitimacy. Three games they should win this week in preparation for the second showdown with Tonka.
Need: Mental readiness for the Tonka rematch. That I have to dig that far to find a need is a very good sign.
This week: Tues vs. Lakeville North, Thurs vs. Armstrong, Sat vs. Buffalo

3. Blaine (15-3-3/7-3-3)
-Win over Elk River keeps them unbeaten in the conference, which is a considerable achievement considering its strength. Still some loseable games over the last few weeks, though, the first of which will be Saturday at their biggest rival. A win there would probably cement them the top seed.
Need: Stronger defensive play
This week: Thurs vs. North Metro, Sat at #12 Centennial

4. Bloomington Jefferson (16-3-2/4-3-2)
-Wins over Eagan and Moorhead continue their hot streak and push them into the top 5. A win over EP would ice the cake nicely and lock them in up here.
Need: Quality play from defensemen not named Faust or Pauluk. The goaltending switch looks like it was the right move.
This week: Tues at Eastview, Thurs vs. #6 Eden Prairie

5. Burnsville (12-6-3/5-4-3)
-Just how far am I going to ride this bandwagon? All the way into the top 5, evidently. This is where you ignore the early record and go with what they’ve been doing lately, and since what they’ve been doing lately includes wins over the two teams immediately below them, this was the logical place to go. The next three games will all be prep for the huge season finale against Jefferson.
Need: To keep on working the magic they’ve found over the past month.
This week: Thurs vs. Eastview, Sat vs. Bloomington Kennedy

6. Eden Prairie (15-4-1/6-4-1)
-Rough week for the defending champs as they go down to Burnsville and tie Duluth East. But with the Lake crown on the line on Thursday, there’s no time to look back. Now would be the time to bring back the memories of last year lest the climb they face get even tougher.
Need: Same as last time--production out of the 2nd and 3rd lines. No top team is as reliant on a top few select players.
This week: Thurs at #4 Bloomington Jefferson, Sat vs. Rosemount

7. Eagan (16-4-1/8-2-1)
-I saw them for the first time this week and, despite the loss, I was impressed; they’ve got no obvious weaknesses and have some good potential. Should ride out the season with 4 straight wins and collect the top seed in 3AA.
Need: More scoring punch, I suppose.
This week: Tues at Park (CG), Sat at Eastview

8. Hill-Murray (18-2-1/7-2-1)
-This might look like an overreaction to a loss to a very good STA team, but the Pioneers’ list of achievements on the statewide level this year is not all that long. The win over DE was impressive, and they deserve some credit for the early win over Burnsville, though it’s hard to say how much. But beyond that, they haven’t done much to earn a very high rank. I think they’re better than this, but they need to go back to playing like it, and when the Pioneer faithful starts to express concern, I take note.
Need: A few come to mind--getting healthy, having their experienced players step up in big spots, and regaining their swagger in general.
This week: Thurs at Tartan, Sat vs. Richfield

9. Edina (13-6-2/5-5-2)
-Missed a chance to right the ship and fell for the 3rd time to Wayzata. Don’t completely overlook their matchup with Tonka this week; they gave the Skippers a great run the first time around, and if Tonka takes them for granted after the second meeting, they may be in for a surprise. But this team needs a big win soon, or things might snowball out of control.
Need: To go back to how they were playing around Christmas. The stars on this team need to step up and score some big goals.
This week: Thurs vs. #1 Minnetonka, Sat at Hopkins

10. Duluth East (13-5-4/6-2-4)
-It was a big week for the Hounds; the offense broke out against Apple Valley, then they pulled off their second tie against an elite AA team. That’s enough to nudge them up a few spots for now. Only one game this week, but it has a chance to be a little more interesting than it should be if East isn’t careful.
Need: Same old, same old--find a way to turn more of those scoring chances into goals.
This week: Tues at Cloquet

11. Elk River (13-6-2/6-3-2)
-Locked up the #1 seed in 7AA with a second win over Andover, though the loss to Blaine wasn’t as close as the first one and sets them back a little bit. Big game in the conference standings against Centennial this week.
Need: More contributions from the underclassmen; the scoring is incredibly senior-heavy.
This week: Thurs at #12 Centennial, Sat vs. Coon Rapids

12. Centennial (13-5-2/4-4-2)
-Continued their strong recent play by avenging their earlier loss to Maple Grove. Very big week ahead as they face the other two top-tier NWSC teams. Perhaps the busiest schedule remaining for any team and in good position to make a leap; would be higher had they not lost head-to-head to the two teams in front of them.
Need: To sustain the momentum of recent weeks and avoid falling back into their earlier inconsistencies.
This week: Tues at North Metro, Thurs vs. #11 Elk River, Sat vs. #3 Blaine

13. Holy Angels (13-7-1/1-4-1)
-Served notice to the rest of the state with their near-win over SSM. Could they be a top-10 team? Maybe. But when you play a very unbalanced schedule, you need to take care of business against certain teams, and AHA couldn’t do that against WBL or DE. And since all three MSHSL teams played SSM pretty well, one might argue that Shattuck isn’t quite as good as they normally are. At any rate, I’m keeping them at #13 for now, and it’s back to the Missota for a bit now for AHA.
Need: Hard to say; they basically need to keep on plugging along and developing themselves for a run through sections.
This week: Tues at Prior Lake

14. Andover (14-5-2/5-4-2)
-Lost to Elk River again, but responded by taking out their anger on Champlin Park. One important NWSC game this week before a very tough final week in the conference. Something of a dropoff in terms of achievements between them and the teams above them, but they can earn their way to a higher rank with a quality end to the season.
Need: Scoring from people not on the top line.
This week: Thurs at Maple Grove, Sat vs. Anoka

15. Moorhead (9-8-2/3-1-2)
-Nothing too surprising in the Jefferson result, but they stay in the rankings since they convincingly beat the team immediately below them a week ago. Face a pair of huge section tests this week; though they’ve already beaten both this season, a slip-up could cost them their rank and a top seed. Warroad also looms in there as a chance for a big win.
Need: More scoring punch.
This week: Tues vs. Bemidji, Thurs at Warroad, Sat at Brainerd

After that…
Benilde-St. Margaret’s (14-5-2)
-Played Shattuck pretty well, which has to count for something. But with a weak schedule and poor showings against top competition over the past month, they remain on the outside looking in.

Brainerd (17-2)
-Win over Roseau was a big step in the right direction as they continue to climb upwards. Pity their schedule doesn’t let them prove much. Time to see if they can grab the top seed.

Maple Grove (11-7-3)
-Continue to putter along as a good-but-not-great team in both the NWSC and 5AA. Two other opponents at about their level (Andover and Osseo) this week give them the chance to prove something.

Osseo (12-6-3)
-Coon Rapids? Really? Probably the ugliest loss of the year by a team considered for a ranking; keeping them up here is in fact a bit charitable. Results of late have not been all that impressive, but two 1-goal losses to Blaine say they shouldn’t be written off just yet.

White Bear Lake (14-7-1)
-The suddenly streaking Bears are back in the picture; if you throw out the suspension games, they’ve won 8 straight. They’re not exactly setting the world on fire, but in this year’s SEC, they’re doing enough to turn a few heads. Two huge conference games this week with Woodbury and CDH; if they win both, Hill had better start checking their rear-view mirror. If not, this conference just gets even more muddled from a ranking standpoint.

Roseau (15-4-1)
-Loss to Brainerd hurts; all they can do now is regroup and look to close out the season on a high note. Important game against Bemidji Monday.

Forest Lake (13-6-2)
-Making waves in the SEC, but there are enough head-scratchers on the record to keep them out of the top 20. Should probably win out from here.

Lakeville South (13-8)
-Win over AV gives 1AA’s finest the title of ‘best of the rest’ in the Lake.

Cretin-Derham Hall (15-7)
-State’s most inconsistent team keeps up its act. They’re dangerous, but too unreliable to go any higher.

Apple Valley (12-9)
-Slumping through the tough part of their schedule; loss streak should end this week before a tough final week.

After that…
Woodbury
Stillwater
Tartan
Grand Rapids
Bemidji

Two weeks til sections. We’re in the home stretch.

[my2cents]

By jove I think you've nailed it on the head.

Again.

[Slap Shot]

Karl, I think you're not giving Tonka enough credit. Both the New Orleans Saints and the Indianopolis Colts this season had several close games and even some come from behind wins, but the fact is they are playing today in the SB. As someone that has watched them a dozen times this season, imho the only games that have been close have been when they haven't given 100%. Now that's a legitimate knock on them because if they pick the wrong game to not bring it it could result in a loss, but nobody controls play against them if they fully come to play and the fact is they have yet to lose. Also they've had enough blowout wins against average to better than average teams to back up that thought and I'll be surprised if Wayzata stays within 2 or 3 the next time they play.

[mulefarm]

Not a lot love for Brainerd.

[HShockeywatcher]

Hill Murray - Karl, while I agree with where they are now, I have thought that's about where they should have been all along. The first game against the Cadets was an upset. It is tough to say where they should be as they have only lost to Blaine (#3) and St Thomas (would be top 5).

Edina - Are you really putting them down that far for their one loss to a pretty good Cretin team? Of their 6 losses, two are to your #1 and three are to your #2. All three games to Wayzata by only 4 goals total. They are definitely a top 5 team in my book.

Holy Angels - In their last 12 games have 2 losses to non-MSHSL teams, a tie to your #9 team and an OT loss to your #8 team, earlier lost to your #10 team and beat your #11 team but are at 13? I agree all they have done with top teams is lose and they are in a tough conference for rankings, but they should be at 11, or at least 12 above Centennial .

Not a lot love for Brainerd.

How do you figure? They beat Roseau who they are above now. If they were to beat Moorhead, I'm sure they'll be top 15. They are probably a good team, but like many around the state don't have a great schedule.

Like always, great rankings Karl. Knowing how long it takes me and how much more you have on yours I can't imagine how long this takes you.

[MrBoDangles]

Dead on rankings......

[halla]

Karl, I think you're not giving Tonka enough credit. Both the New Orleans Saints and the Indianopolis Colts this season had several close games and even some come from behind wins, but the fact is they are playing today in the SB. As someone that has watched them a dozen times this season, imho the only games that have been close have been when they haven't given 100%. Now that's a legitimate knock on them because if they pick the wrong game to not bring it it could result in a loss, but nobody controls play against them if they fully come to play and the fact is they have yet to lose. Also they've had enough blowout wins against average to better than average teams to back up that thought and I'll be surprised if Wayzata stays within 2 or 3 the next time they play.

Yeah, come on, Karl. Minnetonka should ranked higher.

[WBLHockeyfan04]

I guess ranking them #1 isn't high enough

[rinkrat555]

gotta love that bville ranking

[wtbearlk1111]

#1 and will not make it to state.

[HockeyMN1]

What has BJ done to be ranked higher than EP? They lost their only head to head matchup to EP. They lost to LV North who EP beat 7-2, and they are 1-1 against Eagan as is EP. They tied Centennial who is comparable to DE. They tied Burnsville who EP is 1-1 against. They have a big win over Wayzata but EP has a big win over......Bloomington Jefferson! If you are going by what has happened this season I just don't see how you have these two teams this way.

[breakout]

#1 and will not make it to state.

Bold statement, but you may be right. Especially in a one and done environment.

Their D, at times is over aggressive offensively. A couple of years ago against Benilde an over aggressive D move resulted in a coughed up puck and an ensuing goal. The final result was a loss in the Sectional Championship game.

[karl(east)]

Hill Murray - Karl, while I agree with where they are now, I have thought that's about where they should have been all along. The first game against the Cadets was an upset. It is tough to say where they should be as they have only lost to Blaine (#3) and St Thomas (would be top 5).

Edina - Are you really putting them down that far for their one loss to a pretty good Cretin team? Of their 6 losses, two are to your #1 and three are to your #2. All three games to Wayzata by only 4 goals total. They are definitely a top 5 team in my book.

Holy Angels - In their last 12 games have 2 losses to non-MSHSL teams, a tie to your #9 team and an OT loss to your #8 team, earlier lost to your #10 team and beat your #11 team but are at 13? I agree all they have done with top teams is lose and they are in a tough conference for rankings, but they should be at 11, or at least 12 above Centennial .

Not a lot love for Brainerd.

How do you figure? They beat Roseau who they are above now. If they were to beat Moorhead, I'm sure they'll be top 15. They are probably a good team, but like many around the state don't have a great schedule.

Like always, great rankings Karl. Knowing how long it takes me and how much more you have on yours I can't imagine how long this takes you.

Not quite sure how you figure the first Hill win over STA was an upset, based on what we knew at the time. But we agree for now, so no reason to argue over that one.

The Cretin loss hurts, Edina, and so does the Hopkins tie--Tonka beat them 11-1 last night. I agree they could be higher on record alone, but they've only won 3 of their last 10. Also, I would think that a top-5 team would, given 3 meetings against another top 5 team that has been proven mortal this season, manage to win at least once.

I definitely see your argument for AHA. But I think we still need to factor in the WBL loss--neither ER nor Centennial has such a poor result on their schedule. Unfortunately, when you play a weak schedule, a loss like that stands out more than it might otherwise.

And I agree on Brainerd. They're ahead of everyone they've beaten and behind the team they lost to--they're actually quite easy to rank, given what we know.

As for the Tonka "need" comment, I didn't intend to sound like I was down on them. I was just digging around for a flaw, and that's what I found. And I don't think we disagree, really--if they grow complacent and think their defense is going to bail them out, they just might lose. Hence the need to control games.

Why is Jefferson higher than EP? Mostly because they don't have two losses and a tie over the past two weeks. Jefferson is playing well now, while EP's hit a bump in the road. If EP beats Jefferson again, they'll certainly be back up near the top. And though EP has done well against common opponents, against both Eagan and Burnsville they won the first time and lost the second time around. That's not a good sign. Jefferson, on the other hand, avenged its earlier loss to Eagan.

[HShockeywatcher]

Hill Murray - Karl, while I agree with where they are now, I have thought that's about where they should have been all along. The first game against the Cadets was an upset. It is tough to say where they should be as they have only lost to Blaine (#3) and St Thomas (would be top 5).

Edina - Are you really putting them down that far for their one loss to a pretty good Cretin team? Of their 6 losses, two are to your #1 and three are to your #2. All three games to Wayzata by only 4 goals total. They are definitely a top 5 team in my book.

Holy Angels - In their last 12 games have 2 losses to non-MSHSL teams, a tie to your #9 team and an OT loss to your #8 team, earlier lost to your #10 team and beat your #11 team but are at 13? I agree all they have done with top teams is lose and they are in a tough conference for rankings, but they should be at 11, or at least 12 above Centennial .

Not a lot love for Brainerd.

How do you figure? They beat Roseau who they are above now. If they were to beat Moorhead, I'm sure they'll be top 15. They are probably a good team, but like many around the state don't have a great schedule.

Like always, great rankings Karl. Knowing how long it takes me and how much more you have on yours I can't imagine how long this takes you.

Not quite sure how you figure the first Hill win over STA was an upset, based on what we knew at the time. But we agree for now, so no reason to argue over that one.

The Cretin loss hurts, Edina, and so does the Hopkins tie--Tonka beat them 11-1 last night. I agree they could be higher on record alone, but they've only won 3 of their last 10. Also, I would think that a top-5 team would, given 3 meetings against another top 5 team that has been proven mortal this season, manage to win at least once.

I definitely see your argument for AHA. But I think we still need to factor in the WBL loss--neither ER nor Centennial has such a poor result on their schedule. Unfortunately, when you play a weak schedule, a loss like that stands out more than it might otherwise.

And I agree on Brainerd. They're ahead of everyone they've beaten and behind the team they lost to--they're actually quite easy to rank, given what we know.

As for the Tonka "need" comment, I didn't intend to sound like I was down on them. I was just digging around for a flaw, and that's what I found. And I don't think we disagree, really--if they grow complacent and think their defense is going to bail them out, they just might lose. Hence the need to control games.

Why is Jefferson higher than EP? Mostly because they don't have two losses and a tie over the past two weeks. Jefferson is playing well now, while EP's hit a bump in the road. If EP beats Jefferson again, they'll certainly be back up near the top. And though EP has done well against common opponents, against both Eagan and Burnsville they won the first time and lost the second time around. That's not a good sign. Jefferson, on the other hand, avenged its earlier loss to Eagan.

Yes, upset was the wrong word, it was an evenly played game with Hill outshooting STA 29-24.

Karl, with the exception of Hill, Tonka and Eagan, all good teams in the state have losses to teams below them. I would also say, in my opinion, it is very difficult to hold ties against anyone. To me they are mute games showing just they can play with the team.

Not at all trying to rip you, as I'm simply giving my opinions to stir up discussion, but it seems to me some losses/ties really hurt teams while others hurt teams.

Holy Angels and Edina have all of one bad loss on their schedule.
Wayzata has TWO, including a tie to your #19 team, yet they sit at #2.
Blaine has THREE ties, to your #10, #12, and #18 and yet they sit at #3.

I don't disagree with Wayzata being where they are because of how they've done recently. I would say that Tonka is in a league of their own, Wayzata is near them and probably in their own separate league. Edina is definitely not as good as either team, but not 7 spots worse.

[Gov78]

#1 and will not make it to state.

Bold statement, but you may be right. Especially in a one and done environment.

Their D, at times is over aggressive offensively. A couple of years ago against Benilde an over aggressive D move resulted in a coughed up puck and an ensuing goal. The final result was a loss in the Sectional Championship game.

I'd say that the error that game was more the result of shortening the bench and over-playing a few kids who ended up not having enough left in the tank at the end and that allowed BSM to get back into the game and eventially win it. It should be a good lesson learned for Urick as he heads into section play this year with a stronger and deeper team.

[Papa Bergundy]

Hill Murray - Karl, while I agree with where they are now, I have thought that's about where they should have been all along. The first game against the Cadets was an upset. It is tough to say where they should be as they have only lost to Blaine (#3) and St Thomas (would be top 5).

Edina - Are you really putting them down that far for their one loss to a pretty good Cretin team? Of their 6 losses, two are to your #1 and three are to your #2. All three games to Wayzata by only 4 goals total. They are definitely a top 5 team in my book.

Holy Angels - In their last 12 games have 2 losses to non-MSHSL teams, a tie to your #9 team and an OT loss to your #8 team, earlier lost to your #10 team and beat your #11 team but are at 13? I agree all they have done with top teams is lose and they are in a tough conference for rankings, but they should be at 11, or at least 12 above Centennial .
How do you figure? They beat Roseau who they are above now. If they were to beat Moorhead, I'm sure they'll be top 15. They are probably a good team, but like many around the state don't have a great schedule.

Like always, great rankings Karl. Knowing how long it takes me and how much more you have on yours I can't imagine how long this takes you.

Not quite sure how you figure the first Hill win over STA was an upset, based on what we knew at the time. But we agree for now, so no reason to argue over that one.

The Cretin loss hurts, Edina, and so does the Hopkins tie--Tonka beat them 11-1 last night. I agree they could be higher on record alone, but they've only won 3 of their last 10. Also, I would think that a top-5 team would, given 3 meetings against another top 5 team that has been proven mortal this season, manage to win at least once.

I definitely see your argument for AHA. But I think we still need to factor in the WBL loss--neither ER nor Centennial has such a poor result on their schedule. Unfortunately, when you play a weak schedule, a loss like that stands out more than it might otherwise.

And I agree on Brainerd. They're ahead of everyone they've beaten and behind the team they lost to--they're actually quite easy to rank, given what we know.

As for the Tonka "need" comment, I didn't intend to sound like I was down on them. I was just digging around for a flaw, and that's what I found. And I don't think we disagree, really--if they grow complacent and think their defense is going to bail them out, they just might lose. Hence the need to control games.

Why is Jefferson higher than EP? Mostly because they don't have two losses and a tie over the past two weeks. Jefferson is playing well now, while EP's hit a bump in the road. If EP beats Jefferson again, they'll certainly be back up near the top. And though EP has done well against common opponents, against both Eagan and Burnsville they won the first time and lost the second time around. That's not a good sign. Jefferson, on the other hand, avenged its earlier loss to Eagan.

Yes, upset was the wrong word, it was an evenly played game with Hill outshooting STA 29-24.

Karl, with the exception of Hill, Tonka and Eagan, all good teams in the state have losses to teams below them. I would also say, in my opinion, it is very difficult to hold ties against anyone. To me they are mute games showing just they can play with the team.

Not at all trying to rip you, as I'm simply giving my opinions to stir up discussion, but it seems to me some losses/ties really hurt teams while others hurt teams.

Holy Angels and Edina have all of one bad loss on their schedule.
Wayzata has TWO, including a tie to your #19 team, yet they sit at #2.
Blaine has THREE ties, to your #10, #12, and #18 and yet they sit at #3.

I don't disagree with Wayzata being where they are because of how they've done recently. I would say that Tonka is in a league of their own, Wayzata is near them and probably in their own separate league. Edina is definitely not as good as either team, but not 7 spots worse.

Is losing to the number 4 team in the rankings by one goal considered a bad loss? Tonka is a very rare case in the sense that regardless of how good a team is, they are bound to lose some games. Rarely any team can bring their "A" game to every big game and sometimes they get beat.

But you nailed on the head exactly why Wayzata and Burnsville are where they are, and why Edina is where they belong; what they have done recently. Wayzata hasn't lost in 9 games including the big tie with undefeated Tonka. Burnsville is the hottest team in the state and their only loss in that stretch was a squeaker to Wayzata. They are playing much like how Edina was in December. Edina, however, has lost to Cretin, Wayzata twice, blown out by Tonka, and tied an average (only because of their goalie) Hopkins team. I think this poor stretch of games puts them right where Karl has them.

Additionally, I will directly quote you as saying, "I would also say, in my opinion, it is very difficult to hold ties against anyone. To me they are mute games showing just they can play with the team". So are you saying Hopkins and Edina are about in the same league then? And then you use Blaine's three ties against them as proof they are overrated. Make up your mind, buddy.

[HShockeywatcher]

Additionally, I will directly quote you as saying, "I would also say, in my opinion, it is very difficult to hold ties against anyone. To me they are mute games showing just they can play with the team". So are you saying Hopkins and Edina are about in the same league then? And then you use Blaine's three ties against them as proof they are overrated. Make up your mind, buddy.

My mind is made up. I don't hold ties against either team. They are a means to bring a lower team up but not bring a higher team down, imo.

I pointed it out because I think Edina is being hit hard because of theirs while Blaine, Hill and others aren't. Personally, I would put Edina at #3 and Blaine right behind them; Edina has beaten Blaine twice.

Ties and OT games don't put a team down, but simply don't make this overwhelming statement that a team is amazing.

But you nailed on the head exactly why Wayzata and Burnsville are where they are, and why Edina is where they belong; what they have done recently. Wayzata hasn't lost in 9 games including the big tie with undefeated Tonka. Burnsville is the hottest team in the state and their only loss in that stretch was a squeaker to Wayzata. They are playing much like how Edina was in December. Edina, however, has lost to Cretin, Wayzata twice, blown out by Tonka, and tied an average (only because of their goalie) Hopkins team. I think this poor stretch of games puts them right where Karl has them.

Holy Angels lost in OT to Hill and tied Edina, while their WBL loss was their 3rd quality opponent of the year. So, we bring some teams way up because of what they have done lately ignoring early losses, while uses those early losses to keep others down.

[starmvp]

Holy Angels lost in OT to Hill and tied Edina, while their WBL loss was their 3rd quality opponent of the year. So, we bring some teams way up because of what they have done lately ignoring early losses, while uses those early losses to keep others down.

Totally hearing you on this one... A great point...

[Goldfishdude]

I also think when one factors in the main teams in the SEC (CDH, FLake, WBL and Woodbury) that Karls mentions, their schedules include two more easy wins this year with the addition of East Ridge. I know in WBL's case, the two games that East Ridge replaced from a year ago (the Fargo and Moorhead trip) were losses.

These SEC teams have had "ok" success outside of conference play... WBL had an upset win over AHA but losses to EAST, H-M twice and blown out by STA.

Cretin with wins over BSM and Edina, but awful losses to STA, Lakeville South and Burnsville.

Woodbury with losses to Tonka, Edina, Centennial, Wayzata and Elk River with no real quality non-conference win.

FLake with decent wins over Rapids and St. Francis, and competitive loss vs East, but was blown out by Andover.

I think if any SEC advances to state it will be more by virtue of a good fortune than being a better team.

[karl(east)]

Additionally, I will directly quote you as saying, "I would also say, in my opinion, it is very difficult to hold ties against anyone. To me they are mute games showing just they can play with the team". So are you saying Hopkins and Edina are about in the same league then? And then you use Blaine's three ties against them as proof they are overrated. Make up your mind, buddy.

My mind is made up. I don't hold ties against either team. They are a means to bring a lower team up but not bring a higher team down, imo.

I pointed it out because I think Edina is being hit hard because of theirs while Blaine, Hill and others aren't. Personally, I would put Edina at #3 and Blaine right behind them; Edina has beaten Blaine twice.

Ties and OT games don't put a team down, but simply don't make this overwhelming statement that a team is amazing.

But you nailed on the head exactly why Wayzata and Burnsville are where they are, and why Edina is where they belong; what they have done recently. Wayzata hasn't lost in 9 games including the big tie with undefeated Tonka. Burnsville is the hottest team in the state and their only loss in that stretch was a squeaker to Wayzata. They are playing much like how Edina was in December. Edina, however, has lost to Cretin, Wayzata twice, blown out by Tonka, and tied an average (only because of their goalie) Hopkins team. I think this poor stretch of games puts them right where Karl has them.

Holy Angels lost in OT to Hill and tied Edina, while their WBL loss was their 3rd quality opponent of the year. So, we bring some teams way up because of what they have done lately ignoring early losses, while uses those early losses to keep others down.

We'll have to agree to disagree on how to rate ties. I don't knock teams down much because of a tie to a good team (Maple Grove, Benilde, etc.), but I think we have to draw the line somewhere. Top-5 teams have no business tying Hopkins this year, IMO.

Another reason I put Edina where I did was a recent common opponent with Hill-AHA. Hill beat them, Edina didn't. It was close, but the edge goes to Hill. I'd also add that the gap between Edina and most of the teams in front of them is quite small, while there is a gulf between them and East. They have nowhere to go but up.

And if we're going to use the what-have-you-done-lately argument to try to raise AHA, we also need to look at what the teams right in front of AHA--Centennial and ER--have done lately. Centennial is 7-0-1 in their last 8, with 4 wins over top-20 teams and a tie against #3 Blaine. They're red-hot. ER is also playing very well; they're at 7-1 in the last 8 with 3 quality wins and the loss to Blaine.

[schwang17]

I can recollect a few weeks back a certain guy saying Burnsville and Jefferson were too low and Osseo, East and Roseau were too high. And what has happened since? It's like magic, I tell you.

I'm on the Burnsville wagon, too, but I think #5 is a bit of a reach. Hill had a slight glitch and from the sounds of it appear to be reeling but 1 loss shouldn't drop them that far down. Edina is also reeling but against very good competition. I'm still not sold on Blaine but as you said they have the credentials to be where they are.

Good work as always, though, Karl.

Right now here's how my top 10 go:

1. Tonka
2. Wayzata
3. Blaine
4. EP
5. Hill
6. Jefferson
7. Eagan
8. Edina
9. Burnsville
10. East

[Papa Bergundy]

Additionally, I will directly quote you as saying, "I would also say, in my opinion, it is very difficult to hold ties against anyone. To me they are mute games showing just they can play with the team". So are you saying Hopkins and Edina are about in the same league then? And then you use Blaine's three ties against them as proof they are overrated. Make up your mind, buddy.

My mind is made up. I don't hold ties against either team. They are a means to bring a lower team up but not bring a higher team down, imo.

I pointed it out because I think Edina is being hit hard because of theirs while Blaine, Hill and others aren't. Personally, I would put Edina at #3 and Blaine right behind them; Edina has beaten Blaine twice.

Ties and OT games don't put a team down, but simply don't make this overwhelming statement that a team is amazing.

But you nailed on the head exactly why Wayzata and Burnsville are where they are, and why Edina is where they belong; what they have done recently. Wayzata hasn't lost in 9 games including the big tie with undefeated Tonka. Burnsville is the hottest team in the state and their only loss in that stretch was a squeaker to Wayzata. They are playing much like how Edina was in December. Edina, however, has lost to Cretin, Wayzata twice, blown out by Tonka, and tied an average (only because of their goalie) Hopkins team. I think this poor stretch of games puts them right where Karl has them.

Holy Angels lost in OT to Hill and tied Edina, while their WBL loss was their 3rd quality opponent of the year. So, we bring some teams way up because of what they have done lately ignoring early losses, while uses those early losses to keep others down.

So you're saying that Edina tying Hopkins only makes Hopkins look better, but shouldn't bring Edina down in the rankings? Where you find logic like that is beyond me.

[schwang17]

I agree, you can't logically put Edina at #3 right now.


As has been said before, I believe it's Tonka and everybody else at this point.

2AA and 6AA playoffs will really be something to watch.

[Teak]

Lakeville South (13-8)

Nice summary. But, please notice, when you use the number 8 with either a left ( or right ) parenthesis, you get a smiley face. One needs to use brackets [] with the number 8.

(8) = smiley face;
[8] = eight, or use a space ( 8 )

[schwang17]

4. Bloomington Jefferson (16-3-2/4-3-2)
-Wins over Eagan and Moorhead continue their hot streak and push them into the top 5. A win over EP would ice the cake nicely and lock them in up here.
Need: Quality play from defensemen not named Faust or Pauluk. The goaltending switch looks like it was the right move.
This week: Tues at Eastview, Thurs vs. #6 Eden Prairie

We shall see about the goaltending move. Moorhead scored 3 but only scored 1 vs. EGF - who got ran out of the arena by Warroad the other night. The Jags success will be determined by their defense and goaltending.