Class A Rankings 12-25-11

[HShockeywatcher]

1. St Thomas Academy (4-1) [2-1]
The Cadets continue their rebound from their early conference loss to Hill Murray in beating longtime rival Cretin-Derham Hall. Their toughest week of the regular season is coming up and is promising it will start with a win against struggling Holy Angels, then everything is up in the air.
This week: Mon vs Holy Angels, Tues vs Duluth East/Burnsville, Wed vs HM/Tonka/Blaine/Edina

2. Hermantown (7-0) [5-0]
The Hawks continue to roll showing they are the premier Class A team north of 494. This week they have at least one quality opponent to prepare them for their trip to play Duluth Marshall right after the new year. They are still struggling to stay out of the box; no doubt they would win against almost any team in the state with 5 guys on the ice the whole game.
This week: Tues @ Thief River Falls, Wed vs Crookston, Thurs vs Bottineau

3. Breck (7-0) [6-0]
Two convincing wins against private school teams this week and the Mustangs should be ready to play in both Blaine and at the X this week in route to a probably Silver Division championship of the Schwan Cup. They will likely play 3 quality AA opponents this week making a name for themselves on the state scene.
This week: Mon vs Apple Valley, Tues vs Lakeville South/Stillwater, Wed vs Bemidji/Forest Lake/Roseville/Blake

4. Duluth Marshall (5-4) [4-2]
The Hilltoppers have one of the tougher Class A schedules and lost another close game to a top AA team this week. They host their annual tournament and open with Delano who recently lost to Breck by the same margin they did early in the season. It should be a great opening game to a good tournament.
This week: Tues vs Delano, Wed vs TBD, Thurs vs TBD

5. East Grand Forks (7-1) [7-0]
The Green Wave have a huge presence in the state as they have yet to lose a class A game. They play three games this week against teams in Grand Forks.
This week: Wed vs TBD, Thurs vs TBD, Fri vs TBD

6. Blake (5-2) [4-1]
The early season loss to Cretin isn’t looking that great at the moment now, but beatings the Zephyrs reaffirms where they are. They have the opportunity to play some quality AA teams this week in the Silver Division and possibly end up meeting up with conference/section rival Breck.
This week: Mon vs Roseville, Tues vs Bemidji/Forest Lake, Wed vs Lakeville South/Stillwater/Breck/Apple Valley

7. Mahtomedi (5-3) [2-2]
A close loss to the Bears shows these two are very close in ability. This coming week they will be on the road to most likely play at least 2 close games.
This week: Tues @ Hibbing, Wed @ Virginia, Thurs @ Grand Rapids

8. Totino-Grace (5-4) [4-3]
The Eagles have one game this week which should prove very little, but help them prepare for a week playing Mahtomedi at home after the new year. They play all of Mahtomedi, Marshall, St Thomas, Breck, and Lourdes in a 5 week time span, so we will all see where they belong on the state scene.
This week: Fri vs Red Wing

9. Thief River Falls (6-1-1) [4-1]
The Prowlers are one of the top teams in the state, but should they be considered top 4? They will attempt to prove that this week with a home game against Hermantown.
This week: Tues vs Hermantown, Wed vs TBD, Thurs vs Crookston

10. Orono (3-2-1) [3-2]
The Spartans prepare for a good showing in the Bronze division of the Schwan Cup this week. How will they do against good competition on their road to the X. The loss to 1-8 Chaska really doesn’t look good, but everyone has an off game; maybe the coming weeks will prove so was the early game against Warroad.
This week: Mon vs Rogers, Tues vs Cretin-Derham Hall/Providence Academy, Wed vs Hudson/MV/CP/Sartell

11. Warroad (4-4) [3-3]
Losing a good game with TRF and the Warriors are still a good team and plan to continue to show that with their 3 home games this week.
This week: Wed vs Grafton/Park River, Thurs vs Osseo, Fri vs International Falls

12. Duluth Denfeld (6-2-1) [2-1-1]
Losing to Hermantown doesn’t show much negative about Denfeld at this point, especially being that 7 of their first 9 games have been on the road. They host the Heritage Classic this week and will play at least one Class A team before 5 games on the road after the new year.
This week: Tues vs St Louis Park, Wed vs TBD, Thurs vs TBD

13. Rochester Lourdes (6-3) [5-2]
As it did last year, Lourdes’ schedule allows them to amass many wins without proving much about being a top team. They play in the Class A Bracket of the Kiwanis Festival in Rochester this week, starting things off against Richfield, in preparation to host Duluth Marshall next week.
This week: Wed vs Richfield, Thurs vs TBD, Fri vs TBD

14. St Cloud Cathedral (7-2) [7-2]
With their last 3 wins shut outs against below average competition, the Crusaders got two wins against below against competition and have this week off before a good week after the new year. Hopefully they use the week to rest and are ready after new years.
This week: Idle

15. St Louis Park (6-0) [5-0]
Playing in section 2A, any section finals hopes are probably out of the question, but it is conceivable this team has only 2 losses outside of the holiday tournament and could make things interesting. Three good games this week starting with a game Tuesday against a Denfeld team many think isn’t very good. A win to get on the winner’s side of the bracket would be a great way to rise in next week’s rankings.
This week: Tues vs Duluth Denfeld, Wed vs TBD, Thurs vs TBD

Watch list

Hibbing/Chisholm (5-4) [5-2]
The Bluejackets improved their record last week and hope to continue doing so this week. Can they compete with Mahtomedi at home?
This week: Tues vs Mahtomedi, Wed vs St Francis, Thurs vs Lakeville North

Rogers (3-4) [3-4]
The loss to Little Falls doesn’t look great, but they played Hermantown very close for two periods, so they will be competitive down the stretch. Can the Royals beat the Spartans to start off their week playing in the Schwan Cup?
This week: Mon vs Orono, Tues vs Cretin/Providence Academy, Wed vs Hudson/MV/CP/Sartell

South St Paul (4-1-1) [3-0-1]
The Packers’ first round game in the South St Paul Premier Tournament they host is their first conference match up with North St Paul. If they can keep up their winning, maybe they can play host to top AA team Eagan eventually.
This week: Idle

Virginia (4-3) [4-2]
The Blue Devils host 3 teams that will help us get a better picture of how good they really are this week.
This week: Tues vs Lakeville North, Wed vs Mahtomedi, Thurs vs St Francis

[Puck76]

Cathedral is 7-2.

[HShockeywatcher]

Notable Monday games:

#1 St Thomas vs Holy Angels

#3 Breck vs Apple Valley

#6 Blake vs Roseville

#10 Orono vs Rogers

Cathedral is 7-2.

You are correct sir. Not sure how that happened two weeks in a row for them. Wasn't a factor in their ranking.

[mnhockeybum]

St. Cloud Cathedral's schedule is a joke!

Why did they switch conferences?

What is the Granite Ridge conference? 3 teams in a conference?

Nice 14-0 win over the superpower Mora/Hinckley.
Nice game to pad your stats!

Can't wait until the Wadena/Deer Creek and Litchfield games.

Cathedral shouldn't even be in the top 20 based on their pathetic schedule

[HShockeywatcher]

St. Cloud Cathedral's schedule is a joke!

Why did they switch conferences?

What is the Granite Ridge conference? 3 teams in a conference?

Nice 14-0 win over the superpower Mora/Hinckley.
Nice game to pad your stats!

Can't wait until the Wadena/Deer Creek and Litchfield games.

Cathedral shouldn't even be in the top 20 based on their pathetic schedule

Good catch on the schedule change; I had no idea why they were playing those teams.

This type of conversation has come up with AHA in the Missota many times in the past. Generally, you change conferences in all sports, not just one. For whatever reason, they switched to a conference with few schools with hockey programs.

They seem to be playing one of each of the schools from the Wright County conference schedule they had last year. My guess is their schedule will be much different next year.

[Hershaw09]

Well they switched to gr because every other sport there is in that and hockey was the only odd sport out. And a joke schedule? Breck, h town, little falls(2), rogers, warroad, duluth marshall, lourdes, orono, delano. Might not be the toughest but def not the easiest.

[mnhockeybum]

Cathedral is basically playing an independent schedule since only 2 other teams in their conference. They had the chance to really upgrade their schedule but coach knew that the team wouldn't be very good this year so he scheduled a bunch of patsies.

Litchfield, Wadena, Mora, Sauk Rapids-Rice, Hutchinson, Proctor, Princeton,
Providence Academy, Sartell?

Come on Man!

[HShockeywatcher]

Sounds like someone's really upset here...maybe you're right. Maybe they suck and they are playing "patsies" to win more games than they should. Entirely possible you're right. Then this team you seem not to like will be under-prepared for sections and lose anyway, don't worry.

Speaking to that;
1. How far in advance are schedules finalized?
2. How often are coaches with finalized schedules willing to change them later?

I don't know the answer to these questions, but I find it hard to believe that for this year they'd be able to find too many teams much better who don't have a full schedule AND a replacement game for the team they would end up not playing.

Also, have you taken a look at the schedule from last year? The non-conference additions from last year were Crookston, Wadena-Deer Creek, Apollo, Sauk Rapids-Rice and the Dultuh Marshall Tournament. They lost one game against each team in the Wright, lost the Tech Tournament and picked up GF teams. Really not all that bad.

Those teams you mention; LF was in Wright, Mora/ Princeton are in new conference, Hutch/Sartell was on their schedule last year and Providence Academy wasn't a team they scheduled, they played them in a tournament.
Sure, Sauk Rapids-Rice, Proctor and Wadena don't seem like the best choices, but it would seem like they couldn't find others.

But in the end I'm sure they're saddened you don't approve of their schedule and will probably try hard to change it for next year. Hopefully you just ignore their next 5 games...

[defense]

Lf actually was in clc last year. They actually switched as one of the smallest schools in the clc.
Aside from wadena and maybe one or two others the teams mentioned as weak on sccs schedule reply don't look that bad

[mnhockeybum]

All I was trying to do is point out the fact that their schedule is very weak this year. Hopefully, they will try to improve their schedule next year for the kids sake.

Happy New Year

Go Cadets!!!

[SlapShotGuy]

It seems somewhat ironic that a Cadet fan would call out another school for padding their stats. Considering, the Cadets probably have well over double the amount of boys as Cathedral has boys and girls students and the Cadets choose to play in class A.

If I am not mistaken the Cadets have way more boys than Hill, Cretin and Benilde and they all choose to play AA.

I'm not say'n, I'm just say'n, but talk about padding your trophy case.

[Redlight]

It seems somewhat ironic that a Cadet fan would call out another school for padding their stats. Considering, the Cadets probably have well over double the amount of boys as Cathedral has boys and girls students and the Cadets choose to play in class A.

If I am not mistaken the Cadets have way more boys than Hill, Cretin and Benilde and they all choose to play AA.

I'm not say'n, I'm just say'n, but talk about padding your trophy case.

Gotta agree!

[defense]

I ll have to respectfully disagree, Imho cathedrals schedule is definitely not weak. Ya, it ain't 20 games against the top ten, but thet definitely have to show up in 90 % of their games.

[WHAFightingSaints]

Blake 0-2 so far in Schwans Silver losing to two respectable AA teams. Only had 14 skaters dressed today, missing some players from first round game.

[HShockeywatcher]

It seems somewhat ironic that a Cadet fan would call out another school for padding their stats. Considering, the Cadets probably have well over double the amount of boys as Cathedral has boys and girls students and the Cadets choose to play in class A.

If I am not mistaken the Cadets have way more boys than Hill, Cretin and Benilde and they all choose to play AA.

I'm not say'n, I'm just say'n, but talk about padding your trophy case.

Gotta agree!

There is another thread that has already gotten way off topic, not sure we should "ruin" two threads.
1. There is a huge difference between "padding your stats" and the class you play in.

2. The only significance your class has is in the post season play you play in, not any regular season.

3a. Since the state has different classifications for boys and girls, I don't understand why it uses numbers that represent the total student body instead of the individual genders. That being said, not including co-ops, St Thomas is the largest private school behind Cretin.

3b.Enrollments:
Saint Thomas Academy 533 (doubled to 1066)
Benilde-St. Margaret's School 930
Academy of Holy Angels 741
Hill-Murray School 705
Not a huge difference.

3c. Anyone know; how do they do numbers for schools like Burnsville that are 10-12?

[HShockeywatcher]

Can I get some thoughts on the play/results of Breck vs St Thomas in their Schwan Cups from people?

Breck beat Lakeville South 6-4, which required 4 PP goals, in the semi's in the Silver Cup.
St Thomas played East closer than anyone else has, is one of two teams to out shoot them this year and lost to them 4-5, lost to Edina 2-3 after being up 2-1 and lost 1-2 to Hill Murray. Their 3 losses are one goal losses to AA teams.

In all of LPH, PageStat, Ushsho, hub, and FTP:
-East and Edina are both top 5 in all 5 of them.
-Hill is between 11 and 14 in all 15. #13 in 3 of them.
-Lakeville South is top 7 in both of the computerized rankings, and is 13, 15, and 16 in the other 3 poll rankings.

Breck beat Marshall 7-5, St Thomas won 4-3 in OT.
Breck Bear Holy Angels 8-2, St Thomas won 9-3.

If you believe the computers, losing close games to top teams is more impressive than needing 4 PP goals to beat a lower team. If you believe the polls, then beating a top team in Lakeville, regardless of how, is much more impressive than losing close games to anyone.

I haven't seen Breck play and have only seen 4 periods of play of the teams the Cadets played, so it is very tough to judge. Thoughts?

Thanks

[Redlight]

I've seen the Cadets on three occasions and there is no doubt they are a good team as reflected in one goal losses to 2 good and one very good (DE) AA teams. What I don't get though is why are you looking for comparisons on these two when the real question I think should be, how do Breck and Hermantown compare?

I have seen Breck play 2 games (LS and FL) and they looked very good in both. The comment about it took 4 PP goals to win by two is a bit odd without mentioning LS also scored one, if not 2 PP goals. In my view, Breck had that game won as soon as they went up 5-1 part way through the 3rd period but got a bit sloppy and let Kloos get them back in it. The game against FL was never in question as they outshot them 2-1.

The real question is how good is Hermantown? I think at this stage you have to consider the 2 undefeated 10-0 teams are at the top and put STA back to 3.

[HShockeywatcher]

The real question is how good is Hermantown? I think at this stage you have to consider the 2 undefeated 10-0 teams are at the top and put STA back to 3.

I disagree, respectfully though.

I'm asking about the two I consider as the top two teams.

LPH started with STA as the top team and still (before the week started) has them as the top team. They are the only system. Both computerized systems and the other two published poll systems have Breck at #1, with St Thomas at #2 in both computerized systems. So, with the exception of FTP, the question comes down to Cadets/Mustangs (which has an Iron Range bias).

After the analysis I did of last years' graduating players, worth a read (spent about 5 hours on ita couple weeks ago in my past rankings) and it's very informative, I concluded I should have never moved Hermantown ahead of Breck at the beginning of the season from my bias.

Hermantown has a very good program and I disagree with those who would say that putting them #3 is putting them down is anyway, similar to how saying Tonka is #3 in AA is not putting their program down. If you have read any of my posts, you would know that I believe if the Hawks would stay out of the box, they will probably win it all in March. Maybe they are getting their aggression out now to foul us...if that's true, they walk to a title.
That being said, I don't have a webcam set up on their goalie's head, and what I've seen to actually analyze what they've done this season said they are playing some very close games with teams in the 8-15 range of class A, which equates to much lower of the whole state, while both Breck and St Thomas are leaving those games in no doubt despite Breck playing close games they are ahead in close and St Thomas losing close games against much better teams. Which is very hard to evaluate? Who is better; the guy who loses to top 5 guys or the guys who beats top 30 guys then beats one top 10 guy?
It's like all the international boxers out there; it's really speculation of who'd win if they played. Up to this point I have simply gone with St Thomas because LPH said they were #1 to start and no one had impressed me enough to say they weren't.

Hermantown is like the an amazing sprinter who chooses to carry 10lb weights when he sprints so you don't know how fast he could be if he didn't, but, despite your pleading, he refuses to put them down so you don't know how fast he could actually be. With their schedule, I've thought more than zero times about moving them higher, but their scores hurt them. I initially just looked at scores, but the more I was accused of using bias, I started to look at the data and determined that I was actually being too generous to them, so now I'll stop now that I'm more informed.

So that's why I'm asking about St Thomas vs Breck. I've seen them play. I've seen them play better than the #1 team in AA (because I only watched them in the 3rd period). I watched a whole game of them dominating a team similar to the best team Breck has played and losing because of a hot goalie. I know they can play with the best teams in the state of MN and while Breck probably can, I have no idea of it and haven't seen it happen. Which is why I asked for information on both parties.

I have more than once been blamed for not using the polls to influence my following rankings. Polls are for fun, as they are around elections, as this week's is evidence of. They also generally do not have enough people respond to have big enough sample size to mean much were I to actually use them for any real data.

Just about every week the first handful of posts complain that I am showing bias by having St Thomas at #1 (being consistent is now bias apparently) but that I should raise Hermantown based on what I can't see because I'm not at games even though what I can see doesn't tell the whole story. It makes me laugh but then when I ask these people for more I get no response.

So, in short, I personally thought I'd keep St Thomas at #1 this week despite two undefeated teams (who have each played 20% more games than them) below them, so I asked for input.

Two things you said:
1. I used the 4 PP goals about Breck because it was one the Hub's front page. I don't know if they meant to use it as bias or not, but it was put there for a reason. I'm on vacation (as are most readers). I read the headline and asked a question.
2. To say I should be looking at Hermantown simply because they are undefeated is silly. I was questioned when I included Virginia high in my early season rankings. I didn't have SLP in my rankings til this week and it was shown they didn't belong soon after.
I remember a few years back when Morris/Benson was undefeated longer than any team in the state and no one was giving them any credit. And rightly so. Now a legitimately good team wants to be considered "the best" team in the state because of numbers instead of merit? I have gotten a PM about them along with people saying comments being hurtful because the boys play hard and comments about how they keep winning. I'm not good at hockey, but I could probably outskate some of the best 4 (or 5 maybe) year olds in the metro. That doesn't mean I'm good, by any means, it just means I'm better than those worse that me .
The logic of simply winning, with no merit attached to it, seems quite silly to me.

That's just me though. It seems like a third of those that post on my rankings are family or friends of Hawks players and are personally insulted that a person who hasn't personally seen them play only has them at #2 in the state

[east hockey]

That's just me though. It seems like a third of those that post on my rankings are family or friends of Hawks players and are personally insulted that a person who hasn't personally seen them play only has them at #2 in the state

Yeah, that must be it. No other reason.

Lee

[observer]

Let me shorten this up a little for you.

Breck is better than STA.

[MrBoDangles]

It seems somewhat ironic that a Cadet fan would call out another school for padding their stats. Considering, the Cadets probably have well over double the amount of boys as Cathedral has boys and girls students and the Cadets choose to play in class A.

If I am not mistaken the Cadets have way more boys than Hill, Cretin and Benilde and they all choose to play AA.

I'm not say'n, I'm just say'n, but talk about padding your trophy case.

Gotta agree!

There is another thread that has already gotten way off topic, not sure we should "ruin" two threads.
1. There is a huge difference between "padding your stats" and the class you play in.

2. The only significance your class has is in the post season play you play in, not any regular season.

3a. Since the state has different classifications for boys and girls, I don't understand why it uses numbers that represent the total student body instead of the individual genders. That being said, not including co-ops, St Thomas is the largest private school behind Cretin.

3b.Enrollments:
Saint Thomas Academy 533 (doubled to 1066)
Benilde-St. Margaret's School 930
Academy of Holy Angels 741
Hill-Murray School 705
Not a huge difference.

3c. Anyone know; how do they do numbers for schools like Burnsville that are 10-12?

NO, there's a huge difference, they're smaller and play AA!

[Saywhat?03]

Let me shorten this up a little for you.

Breck is better than STA.

Thank you for the insight Nostradamus!

[HShockeywatcher]

Let me shorten this up a little for you.

Breck is better than STA.

Go on...

That's just me though. It seems like a third of those that post on my rankings are family or friends of Hawks players and are personally insulted that a person who hasn't personally seen them play only has them at #2 in the state

Yeah, that must be it. No other reason.

Lee

Glad to see you agree with me

It seems somewhat ironic that a Cadet fan would call out another school for padding their stats. Considering, the Cadets probably have well over double the amount of boys as Cathedral has boys and girls students and the Cadets choose to play in class A.

If I am not mistaken the Cadets have way more boys than Hill, Cretin and Benilde and they all choose to play AA.

I'm not say'n, I'm just say'n, but talk about padding your trophy case.

You were the first person in this thread to comment on padding stats...just say'n

To enrollment. I doubt half of enrollments are boys, so I still don't understand why they don't use gender specific enrollments. My opinion is they should also factor in the # of sports offered that season. If you assume half are boys:
SCC 219 (6, 37)
HM 353 (4, 89)
AHA 371 (3, 124)
BSM 465 (6, 78 )
STA 533 (6, 89)
In parenthasis are the # of winter sports offered, and the boys divided by that number.

NO, there's a huge difference, they're smaller and [choose to] play AA!

The only [possible] complaining about forcing any or all private schools up would be from public school supporters complaining that more hockey players are "not being loyal" and "leaving their communities."
Very few within private school communities would complain.

It is a choice for everyone, right? If Roseau wants to play in the same class they did when the split first happened, they can choose not to opt up the next time the classes are decided.

As I brought up in another thread, why not do what you can to help the more unsuccessful communities become more successful instead of simply trying to get those with success out? The only issue people seem to have with private schools is their success.