Class A Rankings 1-29-12

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When seeding sections, what is most important to look at?

Poll ended at Sun Feb 12, 2012 8:50 am

Only games against section opponents, if possible
7
41%
They played 25 games, look at them all
10
59%
 
Total votes: 17

HShockeywatcher
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Class A Rankings 1-29-12

Post by HShockeywatcher » Sun Jan 29, 2012 8:50 am

Only two teams now who are undefeated in Class A play. With three weeks left before section play, none of the section standing are definitely locked up. There was lots of extreme moving this week. After 3, the next 9 teams are really up to your interpretation; there are also a handful of teams who play mostly weaker competition, so that is difficult to compare week in and week out.

Enjoy!

1. Hermantown (20-0) [12-0]
The #1 seed is the Hawks’ to lose at this point. They have scored the second most goals in the state and allowed the second fewest goals in state. Their next game will likely be the most difficult for them the remainder of the season; two more away games before concluding the season with 3 at home.
This week: Thurs @ Cloquet

2. St Thomas Academy (12-5) [7-0]
A tough loss to the Pioneers take the conference title possibility away from the Cadets and the focus is now on State. Totino has 4 losses to other Class A schools, so it should be a win for the Cadets, but hopefully they aren’t overlooking it. On Saturday they will host a team they shut out while only scoring one goal in the first meeting; can they seal up the top seed in the section and second place in the conference this week?
This week: Tues @ Totino-Grace, Thurs @ Henry Sibley, Sat vs South St Paul

3. Breck (14-2) [10-1]
Breck is tied with Hermantown for the second most goals scored in state, but allowing goals seems to be an issue for them against weak competition. Allowing 5 to Blake doesn’t look good, but it keeps them in the driver’s seat for both their section and conference. They have three home games this week that should be easy wins for them before they host Totino-Grace next week.
This week: Tues vs Providence Academy, Thurs vs St Paul Johnson, Sat vs Rochester Lourdes

4. Thief River Falls (14-3-2) [11-2-1]
Possibly too big of a big, but outside of Hermantown and little Falls, the Prowlers look to be on the biggest role in Class A right now, especially with their away win over Marshall. Thief River Falls should be in line for the top seed in 8A and, at the moment, likely to be seeded if they make it to state.
This week: Tues vs Lake of the Woods, Sat vs Red Wing

5. Duluth Marshall (15-6) [12-4]
The Hilltoppers have two losses in the their last 12 games, both at home to the #1 and #4 teams and in games they outshot the opponent. If TRF makes it to state, Marshall may not be seeded; their 4 Class A losses are to the teams above them. This week they travel across town to get one step closer to securing the number one seed in section 7A. Are they the best Class A team in Duluth?
This week: Thurs @ Denfeld

6. Blake (12-7) [11-2]
Apparently the negative comments about Blake have been for not; the Bears went into Blake’s home arena and scored 5 goals. Those wins over #6 TG and #8 Mahtomedi seem to make more sense now. Conference games this week, Lourdes next week and a home rematch with Breck before sections start; can they upset the top team in 2A?
This week: Tues @ St Paul Academy, Sat vs Minnehaha Academy

7. Totino-Grace (12-6) [9-5]
The Eagles had a little slip up this week against Mounds View; can they rebound and play a good game with the Cadets on Tuesday? The top seed in the section is theirs to take this Tuesday and with Breck and Lourdes remaining on their schedule, a couple wins and a section title would get them a seed at state for sure.
This week: Tues vs St Thomas Academy, Thurs vs Chisago Lakes Area

8. St Cloud Cathedral (14-4) [14-3]
The Crusaders’ defense allowed two goals to each of their opponents this week but they also proved they can score. They host two 6A opponents this week in what should be good games in back to back nights. How will their defense do when Little Falls’ offense comes to the MAC?
This week: Fri vs Fergus Falls, Sat vs Little Falls

9. Mahtomedi (11-8) [7-4]
A good win over up and coming Simley in the CSC and scoring more against Hill-Murray than St Thomas did this week. The Zephyrs are prepping for their section rematch with Totino-Grace to go to the section final; who is the 2nd best team in 4A?
This week: Tues @ Spring Lake Park, Thurs @ North St Paul, Sat vs Henry Sibley

10. Little Falls (14-6) [14-6]
With no AA teams on their schedule, Little Falls plays mostly teams around their area, along with some quality Class A teams beyond. This Tuesday they should wrap up any doubts of who is the top team in section 6A following that up with heading to the MAC on Saturday when they will likely be on a 13 game win streak. In 11 games, they have allowed only 9 goals; only 17 teams have allowed fewer goals this season than the Fliers. Are they a top 5 Class A team? We’ll get a better idea this week.
This week: Tues vs Alexandria, Thurs vs Sauk Rapids-Rice, Sat @ St Cloud Cathedral

11. East Grand Forks (12-8) [8-1]
The Green Wave are victim to their schedule in a different way than others; they are losing games that are tough to compare to other Class A competition. While they have lost 5 of their last 6 games, 3 were to good AA teams, one to a ND team they are 0-3 against this season and the fifth is to #4 TRF. Who is the #2 team in 8A; last time Warroad and EGF played, the Green Wave won in OT; expect a great game in Warroad this weekend.
This week: Tues vs Crookston, Sat @ Warroad

12. Warroad (10-9-1) [7-6]
The Warriors finally got both their overall record and their Class A record over .500; will it be at the end of the week? They beat a Denfeld team that TRF tied to while losing to the Marshall team they beat. This week they host EGF; can they win in regulation to most likely take the #2 seed away from the team who was thought to be the #1 seed all season?
This week: Tues vs Roseau, Sat vs East Grand Forks

13. Delano (14-6) [10-5]
A home loss to a good Holy Family team followed up by an away shut out and a win over Lourdes. The Tigers will likely be the #3 seed in section 2A because of their early loss to #2 Blake; four of their remaining five games should be easily won and Holy Family will be good preparation for sections; can they upset either of the Minneapolis private schools?

14. Rochester Lourdes (12-6) [8-4]
After losing to Delano, the Eagles have both a home and away game this week to prep for playing Breck away, although it will likely be a lopsided game. Will Lourdes walk through 1A like usual or will the slip?
This week: Tues @ Monticello, Thurs vs Albert Lea, Sat @ Breck

15. Rogers (11-6-1) [5-5]
The only blemish on the Royals’ schedule in last 7 games is a tie this past week. It will likely be 3 more this week as they prepare to play Lourdes next week and Cathedral the following week; the #2 seed in 5A should still be up for grabs.
This week: Tues vs St Michael-Albertville, Thurs vs Buffalo, Sat @ Proctor


Section Standings if the season ended today

3A
Marshall (3-2)
New Ulm (1-1)
Luverne (1-1)
Hutchinson (1-2)

Marshall hosts New Ulm this week. If Marshall wins, Luverne should be the top seed in the section, but if New Ulm wins, they will likely get the top seed and the rest is up for speculation. This is also my opinion based on the scores, not having seen them play. I’m pulling for the Cardinals from Luverne who’ve lost none of their last 10 games and don’t seem to have any they can’t win of their remaining games. It will be interesting to see how these teams match up come section time.

6A
Little Falls (2-1)
Alexandria (1-1)
Fergus Falls (1-2)

Whether you look at it from the perspective of Little Falls or Alexandria, the winner of their match up this week should get the top seed in the section, although if Falls wins, Alex will likely get the third seed behind Fergus.




State Seeding if Section Top Seeds Won Their Section Today
#1 Hermantown
#2 St Thomas
#3 Breck
#4 Thief River Falls
(5) Duluth Marshall
(6) Little Falls
(7) Rochester Lourdes
(8] Marshall

rainier
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Post by rainier » Sun Jan 29, 2012 10:42 am

Great job on the rankings HSHW. TRF snatching the #4 seed at state from D. Marshall (assuming they win their sections) was the big news of the week in my view.

The only change I would make is that I would put Hibbing ahead of Delano, or at least just crack your top 15. I am a Hibbing fan, so the bias alarm is sounding, but I think if Warroad is at 12, then Hibbing shouldn't be far behind.

Hibbing is 8-3 vs A teams and, according to PageStat, has the 7th toughest schedule in A, ahead of Hermantown, D.Marshall, TRF, EGF, Lourdes, Blake, SCC, Rogers, Delano, and Little Falls.

They have also played some good AA schools very tough (Tonka 3-1, Roseau 4-3 OT, Lakeville N. 6-5, Cloquet 4-1 en, Rapids 5-2) and Adam Johnson didn't play in either the Cloquet or Rapids games; he is to Hibbing what Judd Peterson is to D. Marshall.

The only real blip on their record is the loss to Mound, a 3-2 game where the Mound goalie was on fire. Yes, the final score of that game is all that really matters, but I watched that game and I think if they played 10 more times, Hibbing would win all 10.

In no way am I saying Hibbing should be top ten, but anywhere in the 13-15 range seems right to me.

Once again, great rankings.

defense
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Post by defense » Sun Jan 29, 2012 11:27 am

No, Alex gets the 3rd seed right now and unless they beat little falls. Not sure what happens when they lose to little falls and beat Fergus. Problem is they
Lost to Apollo. LF has the top seed and the odds now. FF and Alex should battle it out now for 2...which is not that big of a prize in this section this year.

HShockeywatcher
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Post by HShockeywatcher » Sun Jan 29, 2012 1:31 pm

defense wrote:No, Alex gets the 3rd seed right now and unless they beat little falls. Not sure what happens when they lose to little falls and beat Fergus. Problem is they
Lost to Apollo. LF has the top seed and the odds now. FF and Alex should battle it out now for 2...which is not that big of a prize in this section this year.
So if Alex beats Little Falls this week, and is 3-1 against FF and LF (2-0 against LF this season), you think they should be seeded lower than either?

I personally think more should be concentrated on the in section games. In 4A for example, I think if TG beats STA this week, they should be the top seed just like I thought Mahtomedi should've been a couple years ago when they beat STA in the last game of the season. So while LF will have the best resume at the conclusion of the season regardless of what happens, I think it should go to the team who does the best against the top teams. Just my opinion.
I doubt LF will lose, but if it does happen, I don't think they should be the top seed...unless FF beats Alex in the second meeting. :-k

HShockeywatcher
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Post by HShockeywatcher » Tue Jan 31, 2012 9:14 pm

Well, St Thomas seals up the top seed in 4A with a win over Totino-Grace, albiet a 1-0 win. Hat's off to the Eagles for playing it close and out shooting Cadets in the 3rd.

What's up with the two 1-0 games this season?

Little Falls seals up section 6A with a 4-0 shut out of Alex. Alex is probably 3rd in the section at this point although Little Falls has shown they are likely going to walk through the section. Looking forward to their game at the MAc on Saturday.

shins
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Post by shins » Tue Jan 31, 2012 9:39 pm

Little Falls held Alexandria to 7 shots for the game, which included a 6 minute stretch in the 2nd with LF a man short (about 1:30 of that 5x3).

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Post by HShockeywatcher » Tue Jan 31, 2012 9:49 pm

Breck 6
Prov Acad 4
#-o

blacklung
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Post by blacklung » Tue Jan 31, 2012 9:51 pm

HShockeywatcher wrote:Well, St Thomas seals up the top seed in 4A with a win over Totino-Grace, albiet a 1-0 win. Hat's off to the Eagles for playing it close and out shooting Cadets in the 3rd.

What's up with the two 1-0 games this season?

Little Falls seals up section 6A with a 4-0 shut out of Alex. Alex is probably 3rd in the section at this point although Little Falls has shown they are likely going to walk through the section. Looking forward to their game at the MAc on Saturday.
Congrats to St. Thomas and also good job with the rankings HSHW.
Not much to debate this week, but Herm has another common opponent with STA in Totino.

Herm-7
Totino-3
Shots 40-21 Herm
Shots by Totino in First period: 1 (iced the puck on herm goal)

STA -1
Totino-0
Shots 28-24 STA

Herm-5
Marshall-1
STA-4
Marshall-3 OT win.

Redlight
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Post by Redlight » Wed Feb 01, 2012 1:41 am

HShockeywatcher wrote:Breck 6
Prov Acad 4
#-o
What's up with the close games for STA and Breck? Are they simply playing down to their opponents? If they don't get their act together one or both of them might slip up in sections and leave an easy path for Hermantown.

trev2k1
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Post by trev2k1 » Wed Feb 01, 2012 2:18 am

shins wrote:Little Falls held Alexandria to 7 shots for the game, which included a 6 minute stretch in the 2nd with LF a man short (about 1:30 of that 5x3).
well, i attended the wild game tonight(tuesday) geez what a bad loss.
what happened between alex and LF? 39 to 7 sog :shock:

Mite-dad
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Post by Mite-dad » Wed Feb 01, 2012 8:06 am

Little Falls' forecheck was relentless and they moved the puck extremely well last nite. If they had some true goal scorers it could have been 6 or 8 to 0. This team just grinds and grinds; works very hard. Looking forward to the Cathedral game. It will be a good gage to see where the Flyers are truly at.

Camden
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Post by Camden » Wed Feb 01, 2012 8:46 am

The only time Alex had a true scoring opportunity is when they had a 5-3 advantage. When they went back to skating 5-4 it was essentially even strength, you wouldn't have known LF was a man down because they still controlled the puck the majority of the time.

The Alex goalie played well for being under pressure the entire game. Without his stellar play it wouldn't have been nearly as close as it was.

Hockey North
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Post by Hockey North » Wed Feb 01, 2012 10:17 am

rainier wrote:Hibbing is 8-3 vs A teams and, according to PageStat, has the 7th toughest schedule in A, ahead of Hermantown, D.Marshall, TRF, EGF, Lourdes, Blake, SCC, Rogers, Delano, and Little Falls.
According to Pagestat Hibbing does not have a tougher schedule than TRF or D. Marshall.

TRF tying Denfeld doesnt make them a sure bet to stay in the 4th spot.

rainier
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Post by rainier » Wed Feb 01, 2012 11:21 am

Hockey North wrote:
rainier wrote:Hibbing is 8-3 vs A teams and, according to PageStat, has the 7th toughest schedule in A, ahead of Hermantown, D.Marshall, TRF, EGF, Lourdes, Blake, SCC, Rogers, Delano, and Little Falls.
According to Pagestat Hibbing does not have a tougher schedule than TRF or D. Marshall.

TRF tying Denfeld doesnt make them a sure bet to stay in the 4th spot.
Hibbing did when I posted it. But, yes, no longer.

HShockeywatcher
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Post by HShockeywatcher » Wed Feb 01, 2012 11:28 am

blacklung wrote:
HShockeywatcher wrote:Well, St Thomas seals up the top seed in 4A with a win over Totino-Grace, albiet a 1-0 win. Hat's off to the Eagles for playing it close and out shooting Cadets in the 3rd.

What's up with the two 1-0 games this season?

Little Falls seals up section 6A with a 4-0 shut out of Alex. Alex is probably 3rd in the section at this point although Little Falls has shown they are likely going to walk through the section. Looking forward to their game at the MAc on Saturday.
Congrats to St. Thomas and also good job with the rankings HSHW.
Not much to debate this week, but Herm has another common opponent with STA in Totino.

Herm-7
Totino-3
Shots 40-21 Herm
Shots by Totino in First period: 1 (iced the puck on herm goal)

STA -1
Totino-0
Shots 28-24 STA

Herm-5
Marshall-1
STA-4
Marshall-3 OT win.
One game comparisons in which the teams had the same result are hard to read into. Especially when they take place at different times in the season.

With that said (I feel like I've said that before) what do you take away from comparing a 1-0 victory to a 7-3 victory?

I'm not telling or trying to imply anything, because shutouts are difficult to compare to anything. What I see is a team that has been winning all season because of their offense compared to a team who's been winning because of defense.

Any way you slice the numbers, this will be a good close game when they play each other.

blacklung
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Post by blacklung » Wed Feb 01, 2012 12:41 pm

HShockeywatcher wrote:
blacklung wrote:
HShockeywatcher wrote:Well, St Thomas seals up the top seed in 4A with a win over Totino-Grace, albiet a 1-0 win. Hat's off to the Eagles for playing it close and out shooting Cadets in the 3rd.

What's up with the two 1-0 games this season?

Little Falls seals up section 6A with a 4-0 shut out of Alex. Alex is probably 3rd in the section at this point although Little Falls has shown they are likely going to walk through the section. Looking forward to their game at the MAc on Saturday.
Congrats to St. Thomas and also good job with the rankings HSHW.
Not much to debate this week, but Herm has another common opponent with STA in Totino.

Herm-7
Totino-3
Shots 40-21 Herm
Shots by Totino in First period: 1 (iced the puck on herm goal)

STA -1
Totino-0
Shots 28-24 STA

Herm-5
Marshall-1
STA-4
Marshall-3 OT win.
One game comparisons in which the teams had the same result are hard to read into. Especially when they take place at different times in the season.

With that said (I feel like I've said that before) what do you take away from comparing a 1-0 victory to a 7-3 victory?

I'm not telling or trying to imply anything, because shutouts are difficult to compare to anything. What I see is a team that has been winning all season because of their offense compared to a team who's been winning because of defense.
Any way you slice the numbers, this will be a good close game when they play each other.
I agree, you never know with a shut out unless you were there. When I look at the stats it looks like it was a close game to me.
Maybe it was not. I was not there.

I was at the Herm/Totino game. In the 1st period, I have never seen a team shut down like Totino was. Shots were 17-1 Herm with the only shot for Totino an icing attempt that was on goal.
When you see you can dominate a team like that, you play more lines,/kids, ease off, etc. At least Herm does. Again, I was there, it was not even close; like many of Herms games this year.

I think you should do a little research on the Herm defense. I guarantee you do not know what you are talking about.
Along with a great offense, the Herm defense has scored 32 goals this year and only allowed 33.
There have been more than a few games that have been won by goals from the defense and not allowing many.
Ask anybody you know that has actually seen Hermantown play if they think that Herm is winning because of it's offense.
That's Funny. Thay happen be undefeated because of both.

I am not interested in getting into a big debate with you on a team you have not even seen play this year. We have already done that. I know how good this team is and you will find out if/when they meet in March.

Again, good job on the rankings. IMO, I think the Totina results strenghten Hermantown's lock on the #1 Spot for now.
Cheers!

PS-You did see this team play last year in March 2011. They were just a all 1 year younger :D

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Post by HShockeywatcher » Wed Feb 01, 2012 1:15 pm

blacklung wrote: I think you should do a little research on the Herm defense. I guarantee you do not know what you are talking about.
Along with a great offense, the Herm defense has scored 32 goals this year and only allowed 33.
There have been more than a few games that have been won by goals from the defense and not allowing many.
Ask anybody you know that has actually seen Hermantown play if they think that Herm is winning because of it's offense.
That's Funny. Thay happen be undefeated because of both.
There is a huge difference between saying a team has good defense and saying a team has good offensive defensemen (or however you would phrase what you are saying).

Unless you are using some twisted philosophical definition or a variation of saying "the best defense is a good offense" then scoring doesn't come into play when you are discussing defense. Is the better goalie the one who scores more goals or the one who allows fewer? You are mixing up offense and defense.

I don't doubt the offensive abilities of any of the players on the Hermantown team (which is actually what I said) but their ability to defend their goal has been suspect against weaker competition this year. That is all I'm saying.
Can you win games by simply scoring more than the other team? :D

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Post by elliott70 » Wed Feb 01, 2012 1:26 pm

HShockeywatcher wrote:Can you win games by simply scoring more than the other team? :D
Perhaps you are being facetious, but yes that is how you win games.

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Post by elliott70 » Wed Feb 01, 2012 1:29 pm

15 games giving up 2 goals or less.
1 game giving up 4.
4 games giving up 3.

Hermantown = great team defense.

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Post by elliott70 » Wed Feb 01, 2012 1:32 pm

11 2 goals or less
4 3 goal games
1 4 goal game
2 5 goal games

STA = very good defense

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Post by rainier » Wed Feb 01, 2012 1:42 pm

Whether they are offensive or defensive defensemen, Hermantown's D are super talented. Kolquist, LeBlanc, Zeleznikar, and Pionk are the best foursome in the state, A or AA.

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Post by HShockeywatcher » Wed Feb 01, 2012 1:52 pm

elliott70 wrote:
HShockeywatcher wrote:Can you win games by simply scoring more than the other team? :D
Perhaps you are being facetious, but yes that is how you win games.
I am being completely facetious. The Packers weren't in the top HALF of the league in PA but won 15 of their regular season games.

If you ignore SOS, your examples make perfect sense.
But when you can make a statement like "St Thomas allowed the same number of goals to Edina that Hermantown did to New Prague" who sounds better? No, one game doesn't make a season, but a "great team defense" shouldn't be allowing more than one fluke goal to some of the teams they've played.

There have been multiple weeks where I was expecting the Hawks' "best defense in state" to allow a goal or two and put them at #1, but they didn't.

If Hermantown had those same stats with either Breck or St Thomas' schedule, they'd be the #1 team in state, regardless of class. If they were shutting teams out like I thought they would be from how people talked them up, they'd have a similar case. But they aren't.

Anyway, as I seem to keep repeating, I don't dislike the Hawks, just commenting on the schedule. That's it.

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Post by hshockeyfan53 » Wed Feb 01, 2012 2:14 pm

rainier wrote:Whether they are offensive or defensive defensemen, Hermantown's D are super talented. Kolquist, LeBlanc, Zeleznikar, and Pionk are the best foursome in the state, A or AA.
Gotta agree with you there.

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Post by HShockeywatcher » Wed Feb 01, 2012 2:45 pm

hshockeyfan53 wrote:
rainier wrote:Whether they are offensive or defensive defensemen, Hermantown's D are super talented. Kolquist, LeBlanc, Zeleznikar, and Pionk are the best foursome in the state, A or AA.
Gotta agree with you there.
Ditto.

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Post by pekyman » Wed Feb 01, 2012 3:28 pm

HShockeywatcher wrote:
hshockeyfan53 wrote:
rainier wrote:Whether they are offensive or defensive defensemen, Hermantown's D are super talented. Kolquist, LeBlanc, Zeleznikar, and Pionk are the best foursome in the state, A or AA.
Gotta agree with you there.
Ditto.
rainier, you know what you are talking about.

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