Elite league

Discussion of Minnesota Girls High School Hockey

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Mnnstar
Posts: 165
Joined: Mon Jun 27, 2016 8:11 am

Re: Elite league

Post by Mnnstar » Thu Sep 05, 2019 6:10 pm

I see some of the rosters are up for the girls

j4241
Posts: 99
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2015 2:38 pm

Re: Elite league

Post by j4241 » Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:13 pm

Apparently they heard our request for stats - and went hard in the other direction. There are no score updates from this weekend (and there were a lot of games). Anyone know outcomes?

I think:

19 Red vs 16 Grey - 4-4
16 Black vs 16 White - 5-1
16 Black vs Gemini - 4-2
16 White vs 16 Wisconsin - 8-3
16 Red vs 16 White - 10-2
Gemini vs 16 Red - 4-3

Games so far (it’s very early) would suggest at 16s Grey > Black > Gemini > Red > White. That would suggest the 9th graders (Gemini) are pretty legit. Interesting to see over the remainder of the fall if they over achieved, or if that’s real. Attendance was high across the board, so future games may be more a function of who is there as attendance issues come up.

How about:

19 White vs 19 Black
16 Grey vs 19 White
19 Black vs 19 Wisconsin
19 White vs 19 Wisconsin
16 Grey vs 16 Wisconsin
19 Red vs 19 Wisconsin

Roster of that 19 Black team looks impressive - will be interesting to see if they can take down SSM. I would think that Grey at the 16 level has a very good chance of that. Maybe Black, also (not sure how strong SSM 16s are this year).

NORTHWOODS HOCKEY
Posts: 174
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Re: Elite league

Post by NORTHWOODS HOCKEY » Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:30 pm

j4241 wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:13 pm
Apparently they heard our request for stats - and went hard in the other direction. There are no score updates from this weekend (and there were a lot of games). Anyone know outcomes?

I think:

19 Red vs 16 Grey - 4-4
16 Black vs 16 White - 5-1
16 Black vs Gemini - 4-2
16 White vs 16 Wisconsin - 8-3
16 Red vs 16 White - 10-2
Gemini vs 16 Red - 4-3

Games so far (it’s very early) would suggest at 16s Grey > Black > Gemini > Red > White. That would suggest the 9th graders (Gemini) are pretty legit. Interesting to see over the remainder of the fall if they over achieved, or if that’s real. Attendance was high across the board, so future games may be more a function of who is there as attendance issues come up.

How about:

19 White vs 19 Black
16 Grey vs 19 White
19 Black vs 19 Wisconsin
19 White vs 19 Wisconsin
16 Grey vs 16 Wisconsin
19 Red vs 19 Wisconsin

Roster of that 19 Black team looks impressive - will be interesting to see if they can take down SSM. I would think that Grey at the 16 level has a very good chance of that. Maybe Black, also (not sure how strong SSM 16s are this year).
19 White vs 19 Black - 2 to 0 with open net for Black (according to the book - shots 37 to 26 in favor of White)
16 Grey vs 19 White - White 6 to 1 over Grey
19 Black vs 19 Wisconsin - Black 3 to 0 over Wisc.
19 White vs 19 Wisconsin - White 8 to 1 over Wisc (shots 60 to 15 in favor of White)

j4241
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Re: Elite league

Post by j4241 » Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:54 pm

Sounds like the hot take is 19 White is every bit the team 19 Black is - impressive! I would not have guessed that looking at the rosters, but that's why they play the games! Will be fun to watch some of those tilts, and vs SSM.

j4241
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Re: Elite league

Post by j4241 » Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:56 pm

That 2-0 37 save shutout must have been a goaltending gem...

NORTHWOODS HOCKEY
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Re: Elite league

Post by NORTHWOODS HOCKEY » Mon Sep 09, 2019 5:01 pm

j4241 wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:56 pm
That 2-0 37 save shutout must have been a goaltending gem...
IMO, all 4 goalies played extremely well. I believe the only goal was a rebound on the 3rd shift. I thought the play was pretty even. Black carried the play for stretches and white carried the play for stretches. Really fun to watch.

NORTHWOODS HOCKEY
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Re: Elite league

Post by NORTHWOODS HOCKEY » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:08 am

j4241 wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:54 pm
Sounds like the hot take is 19 White is every bit the team 19 Black is - impressive! I would not have guessed that looking at the rosters, but that's why they play the games! Will be fun to watch some of those tilts, and vs SSM.
I believe the below is correct;

Black has 5 current or former U18 team members, 7 U18 Select camp members and 5 Natty camp participants.
White has 4 current U18 team members, 9 U18 Select camp members and 4 Natty camp participants.

IMO, on paper and on the ice, the teams are pretty even. The 27 skaters that were there on Saturday played hard, fast and produced a lot of scoring opportunities, The goalies made a number of excellent saves and it was extremely fun game to watch. That speed and quality of play from high school players is pretty amazing. I believe it was representative of what Elite League is suppose to be.

Grey is very good, very fast and should be able to give SSM 16s all they can handle.

j4241
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Re: Elite league

Post by j4241 » Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:36 am

That’s an incredible collection of talent! I also fully take your point that the teams are well matched, and look forward to watching them play each other at some point.

The only thing I would add is I’m increasingly skeptical of using USA hockey accolades as a barometer of talent. Just as a for example, there are two players on black who are unquestionably two of the best high school forwards in Minnesota, neither of whom would I trade straight up for a forward on any team (which implies I at least think they are THE two best forwards in Minnesota), and they never made the u18 team. I think the merit of my point will be supported if you know who I’m talking about (and I bet you do).

Regarding my skepticism about USA hockey as a barometer, it’s obviously not completely bad. However, I think their evaluations are systematically flawed. It’s hard to prove this from the outside, but I believe politics, college coaching influence, and reputation effects (which is another way of saying confirmation bias) are all forms of systematic bias that USA hockey has not even tried to eliminate, and therefore is visible in the outcomes. Not that I’m naive enough to think that’s fixable, just pointing it out.

NORTHWOODS HOCKEY
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Re: Elite league

Post by NORTHWOODS HOCKEY » Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:43 am

j4241 wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:36 am
That’s an incredible collection of talent! I also fully take your point that the teams are well matched, and look forward to watching them play each other at some point.

The only thing I would add is I’m increasingly skeptical of using USA hockey accolades as a barometer of talent. Just as a for example, there are two players on black who are unquestionably two of the best high school forwards in Minnesota, neither of whom would I trade straight up for a forward on any team (which implies I at least think they are THE two best forwards in Minnesota), and they never made the u18 team. I think the merit of my point will be supported if you know who I’m talking about (and I bet you do).

Regarding my skepticism about USA hockey as a barometer, it’s obviously not completely bad. However, I think their evaluations are systematically flawed. It’s hard to prove this from the outside, but I believe politics, college coaching influence, and reputation effects (which is another way of saying confirmation bias) are all forms of systematic bias that USA hockey has not even tried to eliminate, and therefore is visible in the outcomes. Not that I’m naive enough to think that’s fixable, just pointing it out.

I understand your point and your reasons to be skeptical. I do know the two players you are talking about and I agree, both are excellent players and carry ALL the qualities USA hockey continuously preaches players need to have to be on the team. IMO, both were top 9 forwards in Maine last year and both would have helped the U18 team.

I won't bite to hard on the systematic bias and flawed evaluations of HP/USA Hockey. Not saying your observations are wrong, just not going to beat up something I feel is great for youth hockey players. I think there is room for improvement and USA hockey could clean up the appearance of, as well as the actual systematic bias that is evident, with one simple change. With that said, it is USA hockey's program, the process is right there for everyone to see and when a parent signs their kid up, they are accepting USA Hockey's process. It is not a surprise to me that support for the process really depends on where a player is at in the process. It would be interesting to see if any U18 parents or players feel the process is flawed.

It is pretty awesome that there are these opportunities for these young athletes. There are so many good players in elite league. I hope they all take advantage of it and take what they gain from it, back to their HS teams.

j4241
Posts: 99
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2015 2:38 pm

Re: Elite league

Post by j4241 » Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:06 pm

Well said. I don't mean to beat up on it - I agree it is a good thing for kids to have these opportunities! My point was just that identifying someone as achieving some level of the USA hockey process is not proving to be all that great a demarcator of their ability. But it's fun to watch, it's fun that it bubbles up to selection of a national team, it's good that it's at least superficially impartial (at least daddy-ball isn't part of it), it's a great opportunity for goal setting for kids who achieve high school success at a young age - almost all good!

But what is the one change?

massalsa
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Re: Elite league

Post by massalsa » Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:38 pm

Great couple of posts!!! A couple of thoughts for y'all who have posted and other readers to respond to (opinion alert...OPINION ALERT!!! You know what they say about opinions...):

1. Teams are fairly well matched but I choose Black for the best team. I like their Defense as a whole much better and their Forwards are slightly better in my opinion. Goalies are a push, it depends game to game who shows up and who is hot/cold. I think Black wins on average 2/3 against White but a red hot goalie could change that. Players who are missing any given game it could change the outcome significantly.

2. I think that I know of the 2 forwards you mention j42...like them a lot too but I would also put Mobley (not playing...?) in that category too. She is a game changer with her size, edge, and ability to take the puck to the net. She impresses me nearly every time I see her play.

3. I agree a lot on the USA hockey piece that was discussed by both but your last paragraph j42 was great in your earlier post. I am guessing that Northwoods "one thing" might be removing college coaches from the process of selecting players but that is JUST my guess.

Mnnstar
Posts: 165
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Re: Elite league

Post by Mnnstar » Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:05 pm

Love the intellectual discussion.
The one thing
Make the staff's on all teams full time positions.
Taking away any conflict of interest.

Lake South Alum
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Re: Elite league

Post by Lake South Alum » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:54 pm

I hear Mobley is on Black. Apparently she didn’t register on time and/or didn’t complete her SafeSport training by the weekend.

BeauKnowsHockey
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Location: Woodbury, MN
Contact:

Re: Elite league

Post by BeauKnowsHockey » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:59 pm

I will admit I am not as heavily invested in the girls game as some of you seem to be. I try my best to give it equal coverage on EliteProspects.

That being said. I can’t understate how much I appreciate your conversations about these players. I enjoy seeing a post in the girls forum. I’m happy to see they are being talked about.

I have to say though, I am incredibly disappointed and frustrated that here we are in year three of girls elite league and they still don’t have stats. Not only that, but they can’t even update scores now!?

I have made mention before, but I have contacted this league 3 times in the last 2 years volunteering my assistance to help them with stats. It is disheartening. :(
Minnesota based volunteer for EliteProspects.com

j4241
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Re: Elite league

Post by j4241 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:46 am

I agree. Stats are kept in high school. Stats are kept in HP tier 1. Stats are kept in Spring HP. Stats are kept in showcase tournaments like NAHA. And stats are kept in the Boys Elite league!

The only argument that carries any weight at all for me is the fact that girls elite league includes teams at different age and ability levels, with games happening across those boundaries, so stats would not be apples to apples. But so what?!? Gemini playing U16 black, or u16 white playing a Tradition team - those are MUCH smaller skill gaps than is present in MOST girls high school games, and we proudly celebrate kids with gaudy scoring totals in high school even though they are padded by multi point games against weaker teams. There is a very real thing in hockey that some kids are good playing against weaker teams, but disappear when the speed and skill amps up. The elite league should be a chance for kids to prove - by documenting! - that they can play against better competition. Shouldn’t it?

jg2112
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Re: Elite league

Post by jg2112 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:10 am

Stats are kept for the Elite League, but they aren't published.

The people that need to know the stats (scouts, league administrators) are provided those stats. Worry not. All the people you think are scoring lots of goals ("Shelton," etc) and making lots of saves (Bothun) are doing exactly that.

j4241
Posts: 99
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Re: Elite league

Post by j4241 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:37 am

massalsa wrote:
Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:41 pm
The Grey should beat SSM U16 more often than not despite SSM having systems and PP/PK.
Saw the reference to McKenzie Rich going to SSM so was curious to look at the rosters. She is playing Prep. After looking at the SSM U16 roster, if Grey loses to them it would be a massive upset. I expect more than one of the lower U16 teams to beat them this Fall.

NORTHWOODS HOCKEY
Posts: 174
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Re: Elite league

Post by NORTHWOODS HOCKEY » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:23 am

j4241 wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:06 pm
Well said. I don't mean to beat up on it - I agree it is a good thing for kids to have these opportunities! My point was just that identifying someone as achieving some level of the USA hockey process is not proving to be all that great a demarcator of their ability. But it's fun to watch, it's fun that it bubbles up to selection of a national team, it's good that it's at least superficially impartial (at least daddy-ball isn't part of it), it's a great opportunity for goal setting for kids who achieve high school success at a young age - almost all good!

But what is the one change?
I took your point and didn't think you were bashing HP/USA Hockey - it read to me like you were just listing areas that foster skepticism. I agree that HP and USA Hockey accolades are not a perfect barometer of talent. However, where a player is placed and what team they are placed on for Elite League, is based off those accolades - for the most part. I wasn't sure how you were comparing the rosters in your earlier statement ("Sounds like the hot take is 19 White is every bit the team 19 Black is - impressive! I would not have guessed that looking at the rosters"). IMO and I am lucky enough to get to see these players play quite a bit, the teams looked pretty even. The game proved out to be pretty even. The accolades were only meant as a comparison of the two rosters. Both have very good D, both have very good forwards and obviously they both have very good goalies. The first game was competitive and super fun to watch. I think their games against each other will only gain in intensity from here on out.

j4241
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Re: Elite league

Post by j4241 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:48 am

All good. I've seen almost all those kids play, too, so had my own biases about which team was better. I pride myself on being a good Bayesian, though, so was updating my priors on your feedback about the game - which I appreciated! I look forward to watching them play one of these weekends.

j4241
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Re: Elite league

Post by j4241 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:54 am

One point I will make - if Winny uses USA hockey attainment in placing kids in the elite league - I think that's a mistake. She should make her own judgments. Otherwise an opportunity for independent judgment and evaluation just becomes a circular exercise in self-reinforcement and confirmation bias. Kids who did not make Lake Placid, or the U18 development camp, or U16/17 or U15 national, but who she believes are better than players that did, should not be punished twice for USA hockey mistakes. As a practical matter, I think she probably does a bit, so my point is more academic. But sometimes it's worth being explicit in intent especially when it is aimed at countering bias.

NORTHWOODS HOCKEY
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Re: Elite league

Post by NORTHWOODS HOCKEY » Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:03 am

j4241 wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:54 am
One point I will make - if Winny uses USA hockey attainment in placing kids in the elite league - I think that's a mistake. She should make her own judgments. Otherwise an opportunity for independent judgment and evaluation just becomes a circular exercise in self-reinforcement and confirmation bias. Kids who did not make Lake Placid, or the U18 development camp, or U16/17 or U15 national, but who she believes are better than players that did, should not be punished twice for USA hockey mistakes. As a practical matter, I think she probably does a bit, so my point is more academic. But sometimes it's worth being explicit in intent especially when it is aimed at countering bias.
I believe the process mirrors the boys side. Obviously not exactly, as there are differences in numbers. But from what I can tell, it is set up as close to how the boys side is, as possible.

Wouldn't that be the ultimate conformational bias? One person having complete say with out a set of standards to follow?

j4241
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Re: Elite league

Post by j4241 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:24 am

No - unless that one person is selecting both. I think a thoughtful process is better than an individual, and USA hockey certainly has put together a thoughtful process (albeit one with biases). But one thoughtful process and one independent selection by a knowledgeable individual (even if marred by [her] own biases) may be better than the process alone, particularly if it counteracts some of the biases of the former. Admittedly, that may not be what we have right now. But in theory it's better.

This is probably more digital ink spilt on the topic than necessary. I find your comments thoughtful and obviously rooted in knowledge of both the kids and the game, and enjoy reading them - I don't mean to be argumentative or pedantic.

NORTHWOODS HOCKEY
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Re: Elite league

Post by NORTHWOODS HOCKEY » Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:31 am

j4241 wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:24 am
No - unless that one person is selecting both. I think a thoughtful process is better than an individual, and USA hockey certainly has put together a thoughtful process (albeit one with biases). But one thoughtful process and one independent selection by a knowledgeable individual (even if marred by [her] own biases) may be better than the process alone, particularly if it counteracts some of the biases of the former. Admittedly, that may not be what we have right now. But in theory it's better.

This is probably more digital ink spilt on the topic than necessary. I find your comments thoughtful and obviously rooted in knowledge of both the kids and the game, and enjoy reading them - I don't mean to be argumentative or pedantic.
Hmmmm? Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that affirms one's prior beliefs or hypotheses.

j4241
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Re: Elite league

Post by j4241 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:54 am

We are talking past eachother a bit, which is my fault. My original point was that USA hockey's point of view should not exclusively dominate in identifying the best players because it's biased. You shifted the conversation to express concern about another point of view dominating, with its own biases. You're right there's probably more risk to kids being unfairly excluded (or unjustly included) from the bias you are talking about. I yield.

NORTHWOODS HOCKEY
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Re: Elite league

Post by NORTHWOODS HOCKEY » Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:07 pm

j4241 wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:54 am
We are talking past eachother a bit, which is my fault. My original point was that USA hockey's point of view should not exclusively dominate in identifying the best players because it's biased. You shifted the conversation to express concern about another point of view dominating, with its own biases. You're right there's probably more risk to kids being unfairly excluded (or unjustly included) from the bias you are talking about. I yield.
ahh, I am with ya. I think it is what you indicated/hoped it would be, a thoughtful process with knowledgeable independent selection when warranted.

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