GOALIE SV%... Here We Go Again. A race for the best.

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itsfoilcoach
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GOALIE SV%... Here We Go Again. A race for the best.

Post by itsfoilcoach » Sat Nov 25, 2017 10:56 pm

This was from a posting last year - Thanks zoommx.
zooomx wrote:High School Goalie Stats =/< worthless.

The data getting entered in the front end is worthless to start. Shots on goals being judged by mostly random volunteers, who often are quick, or slow on the shot button. Also, the angle at which the scoring table sits makes it impossible to even correctly judge shots on the long side of each net.

I feel for goalie parents, as people probably do judge many of our goalies first off of stats. Scouts still go and watch, but are they overlooking goalies on bad teams who are facing higher quality shots and easier tap ins?

Watching goalies this season, some of the "elite" goalies did not pass the eye test and were way shakier than their stats would indicate. Other "weaker" goalies via stats were pretty darn solid.


From A Hub article today 11/25/17.

“One of our goals is to have one of the lowest goals-against average or the highest save percentage average,” Kwapick said.

'So far, the White Bear Bears (2-1-1) are surrendering an average of two goals a game, while posting a 94.5 save percentage through four games."
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Now their goalies are averaging out to about 40 shots a game, or 200 for the season in just 5 games. That equates to a 1000 shot regular season for WB. I think for a top ranked (12) team it seems a bit excessive if the trend stays true. WB ranks 29 on the SOS. At some point you would think a lower ranking on the SOS scale would equate to a smaller shot count when a “ranked team” plays a easier schedule. It looks like there is no consistency (or whatever you want to call it) when counting these shots around the league. Now Im not saying these numbers are legit or not. Just an example here.

So now as I look around the league I've seen many shot counts this year in the upper 50s 60s and 70s count range, and 80 being the highest so far ?? Now I am sure the majority are dong their best to accurately account for shots.... But I just wish there was a better system so these outliers can be substantiated, as well as not to take away from others who are doing well with the 25-30 shot counts, and the more realistic SV% and earning it.
Last edited by itsfoilcoach on Sun Nov 26, 2017 3:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.

nu2hockey
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Post by nu2hockey » Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:21 am

coach, this was brought to my attention also, and I had hoped to let it play out longer to see if maybe it was only an anomaly...or just silliness

1 caveat is that none of this is on the kids, lets keep that in mind..

The same team was mentioned, how at home, a couple of games there seemed to be 1 period where the team would fail miserably at defense and allow 24-25 shots in that one period.( according to the hub stats) ...

One game in particular the shot totals for the game 5-25-7 for the losing team seem strange. Strange for a team that hasn't come close to 25 shots in a period , I would hate to be a parent of a goalie, every goalie parent I know counts shots during the game and then is unhappy....

There are easier ways to pad goalie stats, than piling shots into one period, and that's why I believe this to be just an anomaly.

That doesn't mean I don't think it happens. As silly as it may sound, fudging shot totals does matter to many. Getting the player listed on the home page of the HUB in the leader categories drives a lot of this nonsense.

This drive for individual recognition in a decidedly team sport will continue as long as the game is played. What should be more concerning this early in the season is the overall lack of quality play through the ranks...It's still early so hopefully play will improve.

meridian90
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Post by meridian90 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:08 am

nu2hockey wrote:coach, this was brought to my attention also, and I had hoped to let it play out longer to see if maybe it was only an anomaly...or just silliness

1 caveat is that none of this is on the kids, lets keep that in mind..

The same team was mentioned, how at home, a couple of games there seemed to be 1 period where the team would fail miserably at defense and allow 24-25 shots in that one period.( according to the hub stats) ...

One game in particular the shot totals for the game 5-25-7 for the losing team seem strange. Strange for a team that hasn't come close to 25 shots in a period , I would hate to be a parent of a goalie, every goalie parent I know counts shots during the game and then is unhappy....

There are easier ways to pad goalie stats, than piling shots into one period, and that's why I believe this to be just an anomaly.

That doesn't mean I don't think it happens. As silly as it may sound, fudging shot totals does matter to many. Getting the player listed on the home page of the HUB in the leader categories drives a lot of this nonsense.

This drive for individual recognition in a decidedly team sport will continue as long as the game is played. What should be more concerning this early in the season is the overall lack of quality play through the ranks...It's still early so hopefully play will improve.
Being that I have been at all the WBL home games this year, I can say those shots appear accurate.

If you look at the shots in the game following the 5-25-7 game, you can see that the opposing team in the next game literally had 0 shots registered in the third period, so clearly the scorers are not efforting to pad a certain goalies stats. Also, in the 5-25-7 game, it was a very uneven game if you look at the WB shots as well, it was mostly balanced in the first, tilted to the WB goal in the second, and tilted the other way in the third.

The specific goalie mentioned here, has had several games (home and away) in the past two years where she has faced 40-50 shots allowing only 1 or fewer goals. There is a reason she is on some of the USA teams.

itsfoilcoach
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Post by itsfoilcoach » Fri Dec 01, 2017 5:01 pm

meridian90 wrote:
nu2hockey wrote:coach, this was brought to my attention also, and I had hoped to let it play out longer to see if maybe it was only an anomaly...or just silliness

1 caveat is that none of this is on the kids, lets keep that in mind..

The same team was mentioned, how at home, a couple of games there seemed to be 1 period where the team would fail miserably at defense and allow 24-25 shots in that one period.( according to the hub stats) ...

One game in particular the shot totals for the game 5-25-7 for the losing team seem strange. Strange for a team that hasn't come close to 25 shots in a period , I would hate to be a parent of a goalie, every goalie parent I know counts shots during the game and then is unhappy..


..

There are easier ways to pad goalie stats, than piling shots into one period, and that's why I believe this to be just an anomaly.

That doesn't mean I don't think it happens. As silly as it may sound, fudging shot totals does matter to many. Getting the player listed on the home page of the HUB in the leader categories drives a lot of this nonsense.

This drive for individual recognition in a decidedly team sport will continue as long as the game is played. What should be more concerning this early in the season is the overall lack of quality play through the ranks...It's still early so hopefully play will improve.
Being that I have been at all the WBL home games this year, I can say those shots appear accurate.

If you look at the shots in the game following the 5-25-7 game, you can see that the opposing team in the next game literally had 0 shots registered in the third period, so clearly the scorers are not efforting to pad a certain goalies stats. Also, in the 5-25-7 game, it was a very uneven game if you look at the WB shots as well, it was mostly balanced in the first, tilted to the WB goal in the second, and tilted the other way in the third.

The specific goalie mentioned here, has had several games (home and away) in the past two years where she has faced 40-50 shots allowing only 1 or fewer goals. There is a reason she is on some of the USA teams.
That’s what’s great about forums, everyone is untitled to their perceptions.

By the way. Talking about the USA U 18 team. Who is the Head Coach again, and where is he from?? Just wondering.

MNHockeyFan
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Post by MNHockeyFan » Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:10 pm

itsfoilcoach wrote:By the way. Talking about the USA U 18 team. Who is the Head Coach again, and where is he from?? Just wondering.
http://teamusa.usahockey.com/news_artic ... id=2356612

Mnnstar
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Post by Mnnstar » Sat Dec 02, 2017 8:21 am

Regardless of where the U18 coach is from you can't argue with his results.
The WBL goalie deserves to be on that team. She has worked extremely hard and proven herself over time. What would be interesting would be to find out more about the other two goalies on the u-18 roster.
The one girl from out east played very well in the fall series against Canada.
The Rochester goalie I know is playing boys HS and is a Gopher commit.

oldgoalie85
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Post by oldgoalie85 » Sat Dec 02, 2017 10:54 pm

Forest Lake Super Soph is looking great so far.Save % at 96/97

woody
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Post by woody » Mon Dec 04, 2017 4:58 pm

oldgoalie85 wrote:Forest Lake Super Soph is looking great so far.Save % at 96/97
Well maybe if FLAKE played a competitive schedule that might change. They haven't played a quality team yet. Talk about a week schedule! Toughest games this year is WBL and Andover. Neither team is a top 5 team and probably not even a top 10. So nice snowflake scheduled the coach set up to make the team look good. #FLAKEISOVERATED!!!!

Mnnstar
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Post by Mnnstar » Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:04 am


woody
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Post by woody » Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:13 am

Current strength of schedule #72 out of 117 teams in state. Drop the mic!

http://www.mghca.com/page/show/427559-k ... e-rankings :oops: :lol: :lol: :roll:

itsfoilcoach
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Post by itsfoilcoach » Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:56 am

124 shots ! Really?... In the Proctor/Red Wing game total between the two teams. Is this even physically possible? Some more numbers that make you question the validity of SOG thoroughout the league. If it is true it must of been a site to behold. It would of been an end to end rapid firing extravaganza with no set up, no break outs, no neutral zone ice play, just skating back and forth shooting at goalies for 51 minutes. Who knows I could be off my rocker here too.

IceHiker
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Post by IceHiker » Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:33 pm

woody wrote:
oldgoalie85 wrote:Forest Lake Super Soph is looking great so far.Save % at 96/97
Well maybe if FLAKE played a competitive schedule that might change. They haven't played a quality team yet. Talk about a week schedule! Toughest games this year is WBL and Andover. Neither team is a top 5 team and probably not even a top 10. So nice snowflake scheduled the coach set up to make the team look good. #FLAKEISOVERATED!!!!
Well Woody, sounds like you have so much influence on the hockey community. Please tell all the top ranked teams that you feel Forest Lake should play to schedule games with them. Unless you know something special that the rest of us do not, it does not work that way.

Myself, along with every other hockey enthusiast would love to watch the top teams play each other all season long. When MSHSL lets that happen it will be a great season. Until then we will have to settle with teams playing other teams in their Conference and Section for seeding reasons.

This week will be a great test for the FL goalies. As this thread is a goalie thread lets keep it that way.

Mnnstar
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Post by Mnnstar » Sun Dec 10, 2017 7:29 pm

That White Bear Forest Lake Game should be a great one.
Looking at the Leaders both Goalies are in the top 10 in goals against and save percentage. This one is worth the price of admission.

itsfoilcoach
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Post by itsfoilcoach » Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:18 pm

Mnnstar wrote:That White Bear Forest Lake Game should be a great one.
Looking at the Leaders both Goalies are in the top 10 in goals against and save percentage. This one is worth the price of admission.


Tell us more Uncle Mnnstar. We like hearing stories.... I cant wait to see shot tallies and SV% on this one. The problem here isn't the kids, their solid. Its parents, coaching staff, and the league not taking responsibility for these completely silly stats. Cant believe stats from many of these games you see these past few weeks, or the hub reported numbers, and there lies the problem. How good are some of these "top ten goalies" statistically? Frankly there are a few teams that keep popping up since the season has started that contribute to this issue. Maybe will see a new high today. I'm thinking will see 150 total shots and a 98 SV% between the two just so they can beat the Red Wing/Proctor game of 124/97%, and elevate some stats. The parents/coaches don't want to fall behind for god sakes. Its getting ridicules frankly. Its making a mockery of the Goalie HUB stats, and that's really too bad. Hope I'm wrong on this one...
Last edited by itsfoilcoach on Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Mnnstar
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Post by Mnnstar » Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:38 pm

If you look at the last common opponent which was East Ridge, FlL played at Woodbury and WBL at Vadnais.
White Bear was out shot in the first period East Ridge had 5 on 3 for a full two minutes after that it was pretty evenly played.
East Ridge and FL, FL out shot East Ridge.
I am just going on what I see on the hub. FlL's goalie has not played as many games as WBL's both are D1 commits on Paper this should be a great match-up.

itsfoilcoach
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Post by itsfoilcoach » Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:43 pm

itsfoilcoach wrote:
Mnnstar wrote:That White Bear Forest Lake Game should be a great one.
Looking at the Leaders both Goalies are in the top 10 in goals against and save percentage. This one is worth the price of admission.


Tell us more Uncle Mnnstar. We like hearing stories.... I cant wait to see shot tallies and SV% on this one. The problem here isn't the kids, their solid. Its parents, coaching staff, and the league not taking responsibility for these completely silly stats. Cant believe stats from many of these games you see these past few weeks, or the hub reported numbers, and there lies the problem. How good are some of these "top ten goalies" statistically? Frankly there are a few teams that keep popping up since the season has started that contribute to this issue. Maybe will see a new high today. I'm thinking will see 150 total shots and a 98 SV% between the two just so they can beat the Red Wing/Proctor game of 124/97%, and elevate some stats. The parents/coaches don't want to fall behind for god sakes. Its getting ridicules frankly. Its making a mockery of the Goalie HUB stats, and that's really too bad. Hope I'm wrong on this one...

nu2hockey
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Post by nu2hockey » Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:27 pm

Mnnstar wrote:That White Bear Forest Lake Game should be a great one.
Looking at the Leaders both Goalies are in the top 10 in goals against and save percentage. This one is worth the price of admission.

I actually believe Blaine v Cent and TRF v EGF are way more compelling ...with a lot more on the line, i.e. section seeding...

oldgoalie85
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Post by oldgoalie85 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:16 pm

Looks like both of the kids played well in the battle of the lakes. WBL goalie stopped 94 %, FL sophomore 92 % . Forest Lake will keep getting better they are quite young.

itsfoilcoach
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Post by itsfoilcoach » Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:16 am

SOS... period. A pylon would get 90% in that conference.

Mnnstar
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Post by Mnnstar » Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:13 am

itsfoilcoach wrote:SOS... period. A pylon would get 90% in that conference.
Went FLAKE-WBL game last night.
This game was a microcosm of everything that is great about HS sports.
This game had everything including.
1. A super effort by both sides.
2. Speed, Grit, Passion,
3. Some fantastic talent on both sides. (7 D1 Commits)
4. Great play making.
Finally superior goal tending for both teams. Say what you want. Those two girls make their teams better. They give their teams a chance every night.
More importantly make their coaches look good.
Listening to the parents of both teams I heard the same complaints.
Why are they playing their 3rd lines?
Why are they playing their 5th and 6th D?
They can because they have superior goal tending.
Both goalies cover up for any mistakes that those bubble kids make.

woody
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Post by woody » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:19 am

itsfoilcoach wrote:SOS... period. A pylon would get 90% in that conference.
Please enlighten us on what conferences are so much better in state?

nu2hockey
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Post by nu2hockey » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:41 am

woody wrote:
itsfoilcoach wrote:SOS... period. A pylon would get 90% in that conference.
Please enlighten us on what conferences are so much better in state?
Lake,Greater Mn,IMAC,Northwest Suburban north, South Suburban ....all can be said to be better for one reason or another

woody
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Post by woody » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:13 am

nu2hockey wrote:
woody wrote:
itsfoilcoach wrote:SOS... period. A pylon would get 90% in that conference.
Please enlighten us on what conferences are so much better in state?
Lake,Greater Mn,IMAC,Northwest Suburban north, South Suburban ....all can be said to be better for one reason or another
I will give you that Lake doesn't have any weak teams but after Edina the teams are slightly above average and no better than the top 3 teams in the Suburban East. So basically there are 2 more better teams in this conference than what the East has.

There is 6 teams in the Suburban East that are as good if not better than any team in the Greater MN. Case in point Mounds View (who is a lower quality team in the east) split with 2 of their better teams this season. Please refer to the teams in this conference on their SOS as well. Way at the bottom!

IMAC has one team Blake, is that team better than any team in the east? Yes they are, but after that this conference has nothing. There is a lot more quality teams in the east. Not sure how you call 4 teams a conference anyways.

I would agree the Northwest Suburban North is better and probably the best conference in the state. But with the addition of Northwest Suburban West to their schedule for conference games that makes the Northwest Suburban conference as a whole pretty soft. The west has 6 teams that are just as bad as the Suburban Easts worst team.

Suburban South has 3 teams in the top 20 rankings. So does the Suburban East. The Suburban East has 2 teams ranked higher than any team in the South. Not sure where you see this conference is any better. I would say they are pretty close in strength.

Moral of the story is itsfoilcoach saying the Suburban East is weak and that is the only reason the goalies have good stats is comical. Suburban East is just a legit as any conference in state. One thing I do know most people that call for conspiracy theories are normally on the outside looking in and trying to find excuses why they are not in. That would be my guess on why itsfoilcoach is making all these accusations of padding stats and claiming the U18 goalie was selected because of place of residence.

massalsa
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Post by massalsa » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:29 am

Meanwhile, on the west side last night...pretty remarkable performance by Carly Greene, a 9th grader from Benilde. Saved 49 of 52 shots in a 3-2 OT loss to Blake.

Lace'emUp
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Post by Lace'emUp » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:33 am

Mnnstar wrote:Went FLAKE-WBL game last night.
This game was a microcosm of everything that is great about HS sports.

Listening to the parents of both teams I heard the same complaints.
Why are they playing their 3rd lines?
Why are they playing their 5th and 6th D?
I don't mean to take you out of context, just highlighting what's not great about HS sports. Both teams will get better by trying to integrate 3rd lines, right now, like last night. Not because their goalie can cover for them. They will need those players later this year and in the coming years. That's what will make coaching look better, not a good goaltender. The goalies make themselves look good, because they are good. Coaches cannot make saves, but they can put the right line sets on the ice.

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