Section Seeding

Discussion of Minnesota Girls High School Hockey

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massalsa
Posts: 588
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 6:37 pm

Post by massalsa » Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:23 pm

massalsa wrote:
Lace'emUp wrote: If this was the 2018 World Cup soccer group draw, Section 6AA would be this year's "Group of Death" with Blake, Edina and Wayzata. Section 5AA not far behind with Blaine, Centennial, and Maple Grove.
Each one of these teams has above average to elite goalies. Also have at least 1 and as many as 3 almost elite lines of F's. I would add WBL & Hill to this conversation with excellent goalies and some serious offensive firepower.
A super HOT goalie can steal a game or two with just enough offensive power or some puck luck...should be an interesting group of semi final games in most sections!

Mnnstar
Posts: 192
Joined: Mon Jun 27, 2016 8:11 am

Post by Mnnstar » Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:45 pm

massalsa wrote:
massalsa wrote:
Lace'emUp wrote: If this was the 2018 World Cup soccer group draw, Section 6AA would be this year's "Group of Death" with Blake, Edina and Wayzata. Section 5AA not far behind with Blaine, Centennial, and Maple Grove.
Each one of these teams has above average to elite goalies. Also have at least 1 and as many as 3 almost elite lines of F's. I would add WBL & Hill to this conversation with excellent goalies and some serious offensive firepower.
A super HOT goalie can steal a game or two with just enough offensive power or some puck luck...should be an interesting group of semi final games in most sections!
If you look at the Hubs top 10 you have WBL Elite, Top 5 in GAA and % HM Top 10 in both above average Blake in wins Above Average, Cent top 10 average to above don't think she has been overly tested, Blaine average to to above average, Edina and Wayzata slightly above average. Maple Grove Elite Top 5 Flake has the top Metro Goalie she is Elite though she showed she was human against CDH.

MNHockeyFan
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Post by MNHockeyFan » Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:08 pm

TheNightman wrote:Shouldn't 8AA and 4A be out by now?
4A is now up - see first post.

itsfoilcoach
Posts: 153
Joined: Fri Oct 24, 2014 1:02 pm

Post by itsfoilcoach » Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:44 pm

Mnnstar wrote:
massalsa wrote:
massalsa wrote:
Lace'emUp wrote: If this was the 2018 World Cup soccer group draw, Section 6AA would be this year's "Group of Death" with Blake, Edina and Wayzata. Section 5AA not far behind with Blaine, Centennial, and Maple Grove.
Each one of these teams has above average to elite goalies. Also have at least 1 and as many as 3 almost elite lines of F's. I would add WBL & Hill to this conversation with excellent goalies and some serious offensive firepower.
A super HOT goalie can steal a game or two with just enough offensive power or some puck luck...should be an interesting group of semi final games in most sections!
If you look at the Hubs top 10 you have WBL Elite, Top 5 in GAA and % HM Top 10 in both above average Blake in wins Above Average, Cent top 10 average to above don't think she has been overly tested, Blaine average to to above average, Edina and Wayzata slightly above average. Maple Grove Elite Top 5 Flake has the top Metro Goalie she is Elite though she showed she was human against CDH.

Almost...In my opinion –

WB Elite... She has solid numbers, but with only 4 shutouts/perfect games... Elite? More of a very solid goalie than elite. Now myself, I would go with Maple Grove goalie for setting the bar for this discussion. There are more elites out there in my book like the MG goalie, but I surly dont want to take the wind out of your sails. Some of the top five have split the season, and coaches pick and choose teams they play as well, or a combination of the two and together they split the tough games that affect their stats. Some get easy games, and others get ....say Edina or Hill (By the way did she play those two at all?...no) so not the toughest schedule, or test as you put it. Play a full schedule to get my respect. Maybe 10, or 11 shutouts and a upper 930 SV% on a full schedule and you have something.

.
Last edited by itsfoilcoach on Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:19 am, edited 7 times in total.

LSQRANK
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Re: Something needs to change

Post by LSQRANK » Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:17 pm

knights14 wrote:How is it that in section 3 the East Ridge Raptors receive the 5 seed and AV,Park and Burnsville go 2,3,4 respectively. And i get it you eventually have to play the tough games at some point but this is a complete screw job. East Ridge finishes ahead of Park in the conference beats them both times during the season and Park gets the 3 seed? East Ridge played 3 top 15 non conference opponents with #1 and #3 being two of those teams. Burnsville played nobody inside the top 25 for non conference and only won 3 conference games. AV played 1 top 20 non conference team. Common opponents was a tie between AV,Burnsville and East Ridge. Park lost more common opponent games then the other 3. Park beat AV straight up but lost to Burnsville. I would gladly put the top 7 teams in the Suburban East up against the South Suburban any day of the week. I know how it happens you get 5 coaches from the same conference in section 3 and they dictate who goes where. What a JOKE. The KRACH and the QRF are nice tools to have as a guide but they are not accurate enough to seed teams. Common sense needs to come into play at some point and apparently that was missing at the section 3 meeting. I do not have a horse in the race but am a east metro fan. Help me out experts

Code: Select all

    13  MN     HS   996.9276                                 Eagan   MnHSHL   3  AA   26   0.720  0.0860
    24  MN     HS   995.2552                           AppleValley   MnHSHL   3  AA   26   0.723  0.0868
    29  MN     HS   994.9309                              Eastview   MnHSHL   3  AA   25   0.714  0.0847
    33  MN     HS   994.7092                            Burnsville   MnHSHL   3  AA   25   0.730  0.0884
    46  MN     HS   993.9117                    ParkofCottageGrove   MnHSHL   3  AA   25   0.725  0.0873
    47  MN     HS   993.7953                             EastRidge   MnHSHL   3  AA   25   0.722  0.0864
    95  MN     HS   991.3386                              Hastings   MnHSHL   3  AA   25   0.722  0.0864
   128  MN     HS   989.8915                             Rosemount   MnHSHL   3  AA   25   0.723  0.0867	  
East Ridge did not fair very well when it came to score differentials and who they played, compared to the teams rated head of them. Park & ER are interchangable according to the computer ratings, but ER woulf not be rated ahead of eithe BV or EV and definitely not ahead of AV or EAG

itsfoilcoach
Posts: 153
Joined: Fri Oct 24, 2014 1:02 pm

Post by itsfoilcoach » Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:32 am

Mnnstar wrote:
massalsa wrote:
massalsa wrote:
Lace'emUp wrote: If this was the 2018 World Cup soccer group draw, Section 6AA would be this year's "Group of Death" with Blake, Edina and Wayzata. Section 5AA not far behind with Blaine, Centennial, and Maple Grove.
Each one of these teams has above average to elite goalies. Also have at least 1 and as many as 3 almost elite lines of F's. I would add WBL & Hill to this conversation with excellent goalies and some serious offensive firepower.
A super HOT goalie can steal a game or two with just enough offensive power or some puck luck...should be an interesting group of semi final games in most sections!
If you look at the Hubs top 10 you have WBL Elite, Top 5 in GAA and % HM Top 10 in both above average Blake in wins Above Average, Cent top 10 average to above don't think she has been overly tested, Blaine average to to above average, Edina and Wayzata slightly above average. Maple Grove Elite Top 5 Flake has the top Metro Goalie she is Elite though she showed she was human against CDH.
Flake having a couple games against each ... Woodbury,East Ridge, Duluth. Im thinking they are not necessarily your your top ten teams really. Now when they have played a top ten team like Blaine and Andover. A total of 7 goals were scored in two games.. Again ,very strong and stable goalie, but elite, almost, but not really there, still young and will get there. Also did not play a full schedule, which in my mind is a test in itself. I like seeing a goalie playing a full schedule before I think a goalie should have an "elite" goalie status hung on them. Now you cant hide as much if there are areas of a game, or a strong opponent, or durability issues if you play a full schedule. Those are all good questions that a partial schedule cant answer, and to be elite needs to be without question. Now famous sub zero GAA we have been seeing. That one you have to be careful with.... Like the Blake goalie, or Roseau's goalie. That stat could be more about whats in front of you (D1 players), and who they play, than what the goalie does when shes out there. The GAA should be done away with at all levels for many reasons, but thats discussion for a different time. To say ones elite is so much more than looking at a top 10 list at face value.

Everyone of the goalies you mentioned do have the ability to steal a game without a doubt however.

highgloveside
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Post by highgloveside » Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:52 am

Foil talks out of both sides of his mouth. Which is it? Do Stats tell the story since you mention them quite often? or is it Stats don't matter? which is also what you mention quite often. I'm sure the number of shutouts is the only stat that matters for goalies though. In my opinion if a goalie makes ELITE teams every year and will be playing Division 1 hockey when their HS career is over they are ELITE in my estimation and stats don't matter. Bottom line WBL and FLAKE goalies pass your test and mine so stop raggin on the Suburban East goalies.

itsfoilcoach
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Post by itsfoilcoach » Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:03 am

highgloveside wrote:Foil talks out of both sides of his mouth. Which is it? Do Stats tell the story since you mention them quite often? or is it Stats don't matter? which is also what you mention quite often. I'm sure the number of shutouts is the only stat that matters for goalies though. In my opinion if a goalie makes ELITE teams every year and will be playing Division 1 hockey when their HS career is over they are ELITE in my estimation and stats don't matter. Bottom line WBL and FLAKE goalies pass your test and mine so stop raggin on the Suburban East goalies.
Sometimes I guess you have to explain even the easiest of statements I guess. There are good stats out there, just not all of them. I like Save %, or even better, Adj Save %, and yes, even shutouts are a measure of quality as I said. GAA is not one of them, as I said that as well. That doesn’t mean I’m talking out of both sides. I’m not sure that I’m ragging on anyone just because I’m not saying their “elite” ...yet, but strong indeed as I said. But I also said in due time as well in becoming an elite goalie. So lighten up Mary. Do you also give participation trophes? Also google at your convenience and maybe you’ll have some understanding on why GAA isn’t a good stat.... read slow though so not to misinterpret. For instance — GAA is just a goalie’s save percentage combined with the number of shots the team in front of her allowed. That makes it a dirty stat and not a true measurement . A goaltender has no influence on the number of initial shots. GAA is just save percentage plus a bunch of factors outside of a goalie’s control, it pales in comparison to save percentage as a superior statistic for measuring goalie performance. GAA adds nothing that save percentage doesn’t already cover, and the addition of noise only serves to obscure a goalie’s true talent.

highgloveside
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Post by highgloveside » Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:33 am

Spoken like a true goalie parent who really knows their stuff. Your questioning "ELITE" IS in fact saying they are not ELITE. I'm sure your goalie is ELITE though, for the 2 factors I set forth previously and only 1 of the 2 factors need apply.

MNHockeyFan
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Post by MNHockeyFan » Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:42 am

Section 8AA is now posted and completes the seeding process.

For easier navigating you may find the Hub to be more user-friendly. Just use the "Choose Division" drop-down.

http://www.mngirlshockeyhub.com/bracket ... son=483397

Lace'emUp
Posts: 359
Joined: Mon Oct 03, 2011 10:37 am

Post by Lace'emUp » Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:47 pm

massalsa wrote:
massalsa wrote:
Lace'emUp wrote: If this was the 2018 World Cup soccer group draw, Section 6AA would be this year's "Group of Death" with Blake, Edina and Wayzata. Section 5AA not far behind with Blaine, Centennial, and Maple Grove.
Each one of these teams has above average to elite goalies. Also have at least 1 and as many as 3 almost elite lines of F's. I would add WBL & Hill to this conversation with excellent goalies and some serious offensive firepower.
A super HOT goalie can steal a game or two with just enough offensive power or some puck luck...should be an interesting group of semi final games in most sections!
Agreed, a hot goalie can be a game changer for a 2 or 3 game section playoff run, or a run in state. It's not sustainable for a long duration though. It's something that gets you by if other parts are struggling.

There is talk about WBL and their goalie. I think she does what she can and has held them in games. Need to throw out the games from 12/29-1/13 since she was in Russia. But before that, I look to 4 key games. Blake, Forest Lake, CDH, and the FL rematch. In all 4 games, WBL was outshot. In 3 of them it was a significant differential. The WBL goalie had to make a lot of stops, but it appears WBL's defense was failing them. Thus, even if you have a hot or great goalie, the dam will break at some point. Nevertheless, I feel they can get by Mounds View, but I'm not yet convinced they can take down Hill Murray. WBL will need to score more than just a couple goals to win that game.

For FL, the concerning situation for me would be not enough games played against top teams. It appears they only have 3 games against top 10 teams, then ended the season with losses to a up-and-coming Mounds View (hot goalie that night for MV) and giving up 5 to CDH to finish the season. Top 10 teams finish off and beat teams below them, not end with a clunk. So I'm concerned how they might fair against a high powered offense like Andover.

Over in 5AA, Maple Grove's goalie has kept them in A LOT of games this year, and I don't see that ending. The first grudge match will be the semi-final game against Blaine. Two very good goalies who both have the ability to get hot (or hotter) at any given moment. Blaine has a better top line, but Maple Grove has more depth. I take Maple Grove in that one. Good teams have shown that if you blanket one of Centennial's top players, the other top player struggles. Maple Grove started that trend with a 1-1 tie against them near mid-season. Blake has shut them down twice. Hill Murray did it, and Andover did too (notice who scored Cent's goals). My prediction is a Maple Grove / Centennial final. If Centennial tries to press with too much individual effort, Maple Grove will win with their goalie and a frustrating defense against the duo. IF Centennial can play smart defensively and their duo can find their open teammates (one will always be open if Maple Grove tries to blanket), then Centennial will win.

Mnnstar
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Post by Mnnstar » Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:10 am

Lace'emUp wrote:
massalsa wrote:
massalsa wrote:
Lace'emUp wrote: If this was the 2018 World Cup soccer group draw, Section 6AA would be this year's "Group of Death" with Blake, Edina and Wayzata. Section 5AA not far behind with Blaine, Centennial, and Maple Grove.
Each one of these teams has above average to elite goalies. Also have at least 1 and as many as 3 almost elite lines of F's. I would add WBL & Hill to this conversation with excellent goalies and some serious offensive firepower.
A super HOT goalie can steal a game or two with just enough offensive power or some puck luck...should be an interesting group of semi final games in most sections!
Agreed, a hot goalie can be a game changer for a 2 or 3 game section playoff run, or a run in state. It's not sustainable for a long duration though. It's something that gets you by if other parts are struggling.

There is talk about WBL and their goalie. I think she does what she can and has held them in games. Need to throw out the games from 12/29-1/13 since she was in Russia. But before that, I look to 4 key games. Blake, Forest Lake, CDH, and the FL rematch. In all 4 games, WBL was outshot. In 3 of them it was a significant differential. The WBL goalie had to make a lot of stops, but it appears WBL's defense was failing them. Thus, even if you have a hot or great goalie, the dam will break at some point. Nevertheless, I feel they can get by Mounds View, but I'm not yet convinced they can take down Hill Murray. WBL will need to score more than just a couple goals to win that game.

For FL, the concerning situation for me would be not enough games played against top teams. It appears they only have 3 games against top 10 teams, then ended the season with losses to a up-and-coming Mounds View (hot goalie that night for MV) and giving up 5 to CDH to finish the season. Top 10 teams finish off and beat teams below them, not end with a clunk. So I'm concerned how they might fair against a high powered offense like Andover.

Over in 5AA, Maple Grove's goalie has kept them in A LOT of games this year, and I don't see that ending. The first grudge match will be the semi-final game against Blaine. Two very good goalies who both have the ability to get hot (or hotter) at any given moment. Blaine has a better top line, but Maple Grove has more depth. I take Maple Grove in that one. Good teams have shown that if you blanket one of Centennial's top players, the other top player struggles. Maple Grove started that trend with a 1-1 tie against them near mid-season. Blake has shut them down twice. Hill Murray did it, and Andover did too (notice who scored Cent's goals). My prediction is a Maple Grove / Centennial final. If Centennial tries to press with too much individual effort, Maple Grove will win with their goalie and a frustrating defense against the duo. IF Centennial can play smart defensively and their duo can find their open teammates (one will always be open if Maple Grove tries to blanket), then Centennial will win.
Some real good points you make. This is very simple it comes down to goaltending consistency. Playoffs are a mind set and the intensity level amps up big time. You want consistency and experience in big games. Blaines goalie has been there before so has Flakes, White Bears has been in a final and played on the world stage. Maple Groves goalie it is the first time in the pressure cooker that is The Mn playoffs being she transferred in from ND.
The blue print to beat Andover is the same to beat Cent. Hill's goalie has been there too.
In 4 WBL #2 goalie in metro over HM #4 goalie in Metro
In 5 Cent #5 Goalie In Metro over Maple Grove #3 goalie in metro
IN 7 FLAKE #1 Goalie in Metro over Andover goalie is average

knights14
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bitter coaches seeding teams

Post by knights14 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:06 am

Well there you go nice job of seeding teams section 3 next time leave your egos and your bitterness for other coaches at home and do the right thing. Meaning have some integrity for the game and the process. Good luck Eagan,AV,East Ridge and Eastview should be fun. As far as KRACH,QRF,and LSQ go they are only tools that can be looked at for some guidance they are not the solution or the answer. None of the above factor in 4th line play when way up or down in a game,backup goalies playing,injuries during the season ect... ect... Coaches paying attention to section opponents throughout the season and doing their homework before a meeting is the way to get it right.

Mnnstar
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Re: bitter coaches seeding teams

Post by Mnnstar » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:10 am

knights14 wrote:Well there you go nice job of seeding teams section 3 next time leave your egos and your bitterness for other coaches at home and do the right thing. Meaning have some integrity for the game and the process. Good luck Eagan,AV,East Ridge and Eastview should be fun. As far as KRACH,QRF,and LSQ go they are only tools that can be looked at for some guidance they are not the solution or the answer. None of the above factor in 4th line play when way up or down in a game,backup goalies playing,injuries during the season ect... ect... Coaches paying attention to section opponents throughout the season and doing their homework before a meeting is the way to get it right.
=D>

highgloveside
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Post by highgloveside » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:12 am

Knights14, I take it you are pleased with the results thus far?

knights14
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Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:21 pm

Post by knights14 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:55 am

highgloveside wrote:Knights14, I take it you are pleased with the results thus far?

Still confused by the process, like i said earlier you eventually are going to have to play the best team at some point and this year in section 3 Eagan is the clear #1. So i do believe that getting the 2 or 3 seed was a big deal in that section and hopefully avoiding the #1 untill the finals. Let another team try and bump off Eagan in the semifinals. Bottom line you still have to play them all but in the end section 3 seedings were a joke. Pleased would be the wrong word not one bit surprised works for me. Plus #2 AV had to go to OT against the #7. Give me a break.

thegreatone99
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Post by thegreatone99 » Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:01 pm

knights14 wrote:
highgloveside wrote:Knights14, I take it you are pleased with the results thus far?

Still confused by the process, like i said earlier you eventually are going to have to play the best team at some point and this year in section 3 Eagan is the clear #1. So i do believe that getting the 2 or 3 seed was a big deal in that section and hopefully avoiding the #1 untill the finals. Let another team try and bump off Eagan in the semifinals. Bottom line you still have to play them all but in the end section 3 seedings were a joke. Pleased would be the wrong word not one bit surprised works for me. Plus #2 AV had to go to OT against the #7. Give me a break.
Hey Knight, did ER win?

knights14
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Post by knights14 » Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:45 pm

Yes they beat Burnsville the # 4 seed 3-1 and outshot them 42-26. Lost today to the #1 seed 2-0 with shots even at 27-27. #2 AV lost to the # 6 seed. Played out exactly like I said #2,#3,#4 wrongly seeded. East Ridge is a much better team then park, AV, and Burnsville. Should have been
Eagan
East Ridge
Eastview
Park
AV
Burnsville
Hastings
Rosemount
I always said Eagan was the clear #1 but East Ridge gave them everything they could handle.

highgloveside
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Post by highgloveside » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:31 am

Imagine that, Eastview in the section final with Eagan. Knights was right the section was poorly seeded but that's why you play the games. it's also why you should watch the games if you want to know what you're talking about.

nu2hockey
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Post by nu2hockey » Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:16 pm

Consensus was EAGAN #1 in 3AA, the rest of the section is comprised of a homogenous group of middle-of-the-road teams this year. I also thought that ER & EV might be a touch better than the rest, however, not enough to complain. In fact the seeding served ER and EV well. It gave them both the opportunity to play EAGAN, it doesn't matter when you play. EAGAN has more to complain about, they have to play what arguably is the true #2&#3 teams in the section. In an 8 team bracket that shouldn't happen. ER couldn't get the job done, EV is next up.


GOOD LUCK!

MNHockeyFan
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Post by MNHockeyFan » Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:15 pm

Lakeville South comes back from a 3-5 deficit to score all three goals in the 3rd period to top #1 seeded Farmington 6-5 at the Owatonna Four Seasons Center. Emily Fischler scored both the tying and winning goals, her second coming short-handed, for the victory sending the Cougars to State.

nu2hockey
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Post by nu2hockey » Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:44 pm

MNHockeyFan wrote:Lakeville South comes back from a 3-5 deficit to score all three goals in the 3rd period to top #1 seeded Farmington 6-5 at the Owatonna Four Seasons Center. Emily Fischler scored both the tying and winning goals, her second coming short-handed, for the victory sending the Cougars to State.
Even crazier, is that the 3 goals came on 6 shots. The last being a shorty. Penalty filled game, 14 total penalties with 7 penalties in the 1st period.

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