Code: Select all
MSHSL Girls Hockey Playoff Results Comparison
---------------------------------------------
Updated: WEDS Feb 24, 2018 ; sectional play-offs for State Tournament seedings completed.
The marigin of error (MOE) for KRACH in this analysis is unknown because it is either intentionally
not published or the folks who use this software are unable or unaware how to recover this
staistical value to qualifying the precicison of their rating profile. The MOE for the
LSQRANK rating profile values is approximately +/- two-thirds of a goal (0.6667) at this stage in the season,
which will be assummed that the KRACH has a similar value in magnitude.
For the purposes of comparison, tallys for the two computer rating systems and the human based MSHSL seeding
were computed on a per game basis as follows:
MSHSL SEEDING: +1 point awarded for every higher seed defeating a lower seed;
0 point assigned for every lower seed defeating a higher seed.
KRACH & LSQRANK: +1 point awarded for every numerically higher rated team defeating a lower rated team.
+1 point awarded for predicting a "Tie", i.e. the following 2 criteria was met:
(1) the predicted score differential calculated using its associated rating profile was smaller than the MOE, and
(2) the observed score differential (actual score) was a 1 goal game typical of an overtime victory.
An extreme example of this situation occurred in game #49 (below), a 1st round matchup between the 4th and 5th seeded teams
in section 7A, Cloquet-Esko-Carlton and Hibbing/Chisholm, respectively. KRACH & LSQRANK both predicted a delta of nearly
zero, 0.0771 by KRACH and -0.0303 by LSQRANK. Since this was a play-off game, multiple OT periods are played untill a winner
is determined. H/C beat CEC at the 9:00 mark in OT4. Shots were 37 to 37!!
0 point for all other outcomes
Root-Mean-Square-Errors (RMSE) were computed for both KRACH & LSQRANK. The RMSE is a numerical value that quantifies the closest of
the rating profile's predicted score differentials to that of the observed corrected score. Raw scores are corrected for non-ESG's and ENG's.
RMSE is computed as the square root of the sum of the square of the error differences divided by the total number of games observed.
RMSE = SQRT[ SUM(SQR(delta" - delta'))/(Num_Games) ]
Points
-------
Current Tally GP +1 0 % RMSE
-------------- --- --- --- ---- ----
MSHSL SEEDING : 123 94 29 76.4
KRACH : 123 102 21 82.9 2.48
LSQRANK : 123 105 18 85.4 2.20
U = TIE (delta' << MOE, i.e. Undetermined, zero is contained in 95% C.I.)
0 = BAD (outside of 95% C.I.) or lower seed won
1 = OK (contained in 95% C.I.) or higher seed won
Play-In = Rnd 0 delta" = observed CORR SCORE DIFFERENTIAL
Quarter-Finals = RND 1 delta' = predicted CORR SCORE DIFFERENTIAL GAME
Semi-Finals = RND 2 PREDICTION
Sectional-Finals = RND 3 MOE = Margin of Error = 0.67 goal ----------
State_Quarter = RND 4 L
State_Semis = RND 5 C.I = [delta +/- MOE ] S
State_Finals = RND 6 95% C.I = [delta +/- 0.67] M K Q
S R R
E P S E P H A A
MSHSL TRANS S P H N I RAW CORR S C N
## RND SEC CLS SEED TEAM KRACH LSQRANK G G G G M SCORE SCORE L H K Notes
== === === === ==== ====================== ========= ========= == == == == == ===== ===== = = = ========
1 0 1 AA 8 RochesterJohnMarshall 987.2157 986.7675 1 0 0 0 4 1 1.00 0 0 0 REG_TIME
9 RochesterCentury 984.5932 984.0385 2 0 0 0 0 2 2.00
2.6225 2.7290 delta" = -1.00
2 1 1 AA 1 Farmington 996.2383 996.9257 14 0 0 0 2 14 14.00 1 1 1 RUN_TIME
9 RochesterCentury 984.5932 984.0385 1 0 0 0 0 1 1.00 1:59_2nd
11.6451 12.8872 delta" = 13.00
3 1 1 AA 4 LakevilleNorth 994.9546 996.0242 0 0 1 0 4 1 1.25 1 1 1 REG_TIME
5 Northfield 992.5544 992.7882 0 0 0 0 6 0 0.00
2.4002 3.236 delta" = 1.25
4 1 1 AA 3 RochesterMayo 993.1432 991.8155 2 0 0 0 17 2 2.00 0 0 1 REG_TIME
6 Owatonna 991.5913 991.7560 3 0 0 0 8 3 3.00
1.5519 0.0595 < MOE delta" = -1.00
5 1 1 AA 2 LakevilleSouth 995.5854 996.6326 4 2 0 0 2 6 5.6 1 1 1 REG_TIME
7 DodgeCounty 992.4341 993.5716 1 0 0 0 6 1 1.0
3.1513 3.061 delta" = 4.6
6 1 2 AA 1 EdenPrairie 996.4934 997.1945 2 1 1 0 4 4 4.05 1 1 1 REG_TIME
8 BloomingtonJefferson 991.1515 992.4950 0 0 0 0 12 0 0.0
5.3419 4.6995 delta" = 4.05
7 1 2 AA 4 HolyFamily/Waconia 993.5592 994.7287 0 1 0 0 8 1 0.8 0 1 1 REG_TIME
5 PriorLake 993.6792 994.3075 2 0 0 0 4 2 2.0
-0.1200 0.4212 < MOE delta" = -1.2
8 1 2 AA 3 Shakopee 994.7710 995.7956 3 0 0 0 6 3 3.0 1 1 1 REG_TIME
6 NewPrague 992.7650 993.5615 0 0 0 0 2 2 2.0
2.0060 2.2341 delta" = 1.0
9 1 2 AA 2 Minnetonka 995.7326 996.8947 2 0 0 0 4 2 2.0 1 1 1 OT1_2:43
7 Chaska/Chanhassen 992.9167 994.0125 1 0 0 0 2 1 1.0
2.8159 2.8822 delta" = 1.0
10 1 3 AA 1 Eagan 996.8454 996.9329 3 2 0 0 2 5 4.6 1 1 1 REG_TIME
8 Rosemount 988.8684 989.8959 0 0 0 0 4 0 0.0
7.9770 7.037 delta" = 4.6
11 1 3 AA 4 Burnsville 993.4705 994.7137 1 0 0 0 8 1 1.0 0 0 0 REG_TIME
5 EastRidge 992.6379 993.8037 3 0 0 0 4 3 3.0
0.8326 0.9100 delta" = -2.0
12 1 3 AA 3 ParkofCottageGrove 993.3941 993.9166 1 0 0 0 2 1 1.0 0 0 1 REG_TIME
6 Eastview 992.8980 994.9341 3 0 0 1 2 4 3.0
0.4961 -1.0175 delta" = -2.0
13 1 3 AA 2 AppleValley 993.4750 995.2580 3 0 0 0 4 3 3.0 1 1 1 OT1_7:07
7 Hastings 989.8919 991.3438 1 1 0 0 4 2 1.8
3.5831 3.9142 delta" = 1.2
14 1 4 AA 1 Hill-Murray 998.1818 998.6935 11 2 0 0 8 13 12.6 1 1 1 RUN_TIME
8 Irondale 988.7439 990.1233 0 0 0 0 6 0 0.0 12:16_1st
9.4379 8.5702 delta" = 12.6
15 1 4 AA 4 Stillwater 992.2966 993.5057 0 1 0 0 10 1 0.8 0 0 0 OT3_4:00
5 Roseville 989.986 992.5018 1 1 0 0 12 2 1.8
2.3106 1.0039 delta" = -1.0
16 1 4 AA 3 WhiteBearLake 994.4551 995.2827 6 0 0 0 4 6 6.0 1 1 1 RUN_TIME
6 NorthSt.Paul/Tartan 988.9098 991.0060 0 0 0 0 4 0 0.0 2:35_2nd
5.5453 4.2767 delta" = 6.0
17 1 4 AA 2 MoundsView 994.4195 995.0818 5 0 0 0 2 5 5.0 1 1 1 REG_TIME
7 Woodbury 987.5928 988.9581 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
6.8267 6.1237 delta" = 5.0
18 1 5 AA 4 Rogers 993.5760 994.6876 4 0 0 0 0 4 4.0 1 1 1 REG_TIME
5 ChamplinPark/CoonRapids 992.7112 994.0376 2 0 0 0 0 2 2.0
0.8648 0.6500 < MOE delta" = 2.0
19 1 5 AA 3 Blaine 996.5451 997.1775 1 1 0 0 6 2 1.8 1 1 1 OT1_7:30
6 Anoka 993.3408 995.3465 1 0 0 0 6 1 1.0
3.2043 1.8310 delta" = 0.8
20 1 5 AA 2 MapleGrove 997.7516 997.5522 4 0 0 0 8 4 4.0 1 1 1 REG_TIME
7 SpringLakePark 991.0280 992.7017 0 0 0 0 8 0 0.0
6.7236 4.8505 delta" = 4.0
21 0 6 AA 8 RobbinsdaleArmstrong/C 987.6883 989.2443 1 1 0 0 10 2 1.8 1 0 0 OT2_6:28
9 Osseo/ParkCenter 988.6878 990.4340 1 0 0 0 12 1 1.0
-0.9995 -1.1897 delta" = 0.8
22 1 6 AA 1 Edina 999.4273 1000.0000 10 4 0 0 4 14 13.2 1 1 1 RUN_TIME
8 RobbinsdaleArmstrong/C 987.6883 989.2443 0 0 0 0 13 0 0.0 1:58_2nd
11.7390 10.7557 delta" = 13.2
23 1 6 AA 4 Cretin-DerhamHall 993.6184 995.0980 3 0 0 0 4 3 3.0 1 1 1 REG_TIME
5 Hopkins/St.LouisPark 993.5054 994.5776 2 0 0 0 4 2 2.0
0.1130 0.5204 < MOE delta" = 1.0
24 1 6 AA 3 Wayzata 996.3171 997.1089 1 1 1 0 14 3 3.05 1 1 1 REG_TIME
6 Benilde-St.Margaret's 992.0461 993.6996 2 0 0 0 12 2 2.0
4.2710 3.4093 delta" = 1.05
25 1 6 AA 2 Blake 1000.0000 999.2350 8 0 2 0 6 10 10.50 1 1 1 RUN_TIME
7 MinnehahaUnited 989.4328 989.9771 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 6:12_2nd
10.5672 9.2579 delta" = 10.50
26 1 7 AA 1 Andover 996.843 998.0472 5 1 0 1 4 7 5.6 1 1 1 REG_TIME
8 Duluth 991.1894 992.4445 2 0 0 0 4 2 2.0
5.6536 5.6027 delta" = 3.6
27 1 7 AA 4 ElkRiver/Zimmerman 993.9878 995.3898 3 1 1 0 6 5 5.05 1 1 1 REG_TIME
5 Cambridge-Isanti/Mora/PC 992.8876 993.6594 1 0 0 0 4 1 1.0
1.1002 1.7304 delta" = 4.05
28 1 7 AA 3 GrandRapids/Greenway 994.4621 994.7515 5 0 0 0 12 5 5.0 1 1 1 REG_TIME
6 St.Francis/NorthBranch 991.5247 992.4816 1 0 0 0 6 1 1.0
2.9374 2.2699 delta" = 4.0
29 1 7 AA 2 ForestLake 996.2881 996.8850 1 1 1 0 8 3 3.05 1 1 1 REG_TIME
7 Princeton 992.0224 992.6846 1 0 0 0 8 1 1.0
4.2657 4.2004 delta" = 2.05
30 1 8 AA 1 Roseau 996.7869 996.3239 2 1 1 0 4 4 4.05 1 1 1 REG_TIME
8 Bemidji 986.3606 988.5189 1 0 0 0 12 1 1.0
10.4263 7.8050 delta" = 3.05
31 1 8 AA 4 St.Cloud 994.7823 994.3708 2 0 0 0 6 2 2.0 1 1 1 REG_TIME
5 Sartell/SaukRapids 993.0421 993.0878 0 0 0 0 2 6 0.0
1.7402 1.2830 delta" = 2.0
32 1 8 AA 3 NorthWrightCounty 994.2422 994.6357 0 1 0 0 15 1 0.8 0 0 0 REG_TIME
6 Moorhead 991.455 991.7495 3 0 0 0 4 3 3.0
2.7872 2.8862 delta" = -2.2
33 1 8 AA 2 Brainerd/LittleFalls 996.5406 995.7778 6 0 0 0 6 6 6.0 1 1 1 REG_TIME
7 Buffalo 991.2701 992.5919 1 0 0 0 1 1 1.0
5.2705 3.1859 delta" = 5.0
34 1 1 A 4 Austin 987.0983 986.7468 4 1 0 0 8 5 4.8 1 1 1 REG_TIME
5 AlbertLea 985.4628 984.8881 2 1 0 0 6 3 2.8
1.6355 1.8587 delta" = 2.0
35 1 1 A 3 Faribault 990.4926 990.6293 10 2 0 0 2 12 11.6 1 1 1 RUN_TIME
6 Waseca 985.0429 985.7478 0 0 0 0 10 0 0.0 6:58_2nd
5.4497 4.8815 delta" = 11.6
36 1 2 A 4 MoundWestonka 990.1762 991.9184 5 3 0 0 10 8 7.4 1 1 1 RUN_TIME
5 MinnesotaRiver 987.2107 987.0076 0 1 0 0 6 1 0.8 2:29_3rd
2.9655 4.9108 delta" = 6.6
37 1 2 A 3 NewUlm 992.3898 993.0934 5 0 0 0 6 5 5.0 1 1 1 REG_TIME
6 Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato 985.5887 988.1736 1 0 0 0 8 1 1.0
6.8011 4.9198 delta" = 4.0
38 1 3 A 4 Luverne 987.6959 987.6031 3 0 0 0 8 3 3.0 1 1 1 REG_TIME
5 Worthington 984.4520 982.6384 1 0 0 0 6 1 1.0
3.2439 4.9647 delta" = 2.0
39 1 3 A 3 MankatoEast 988.4340 988.3336 3 0 0 0 4 3 3.0 1 1 1 OT1_2:41
6 Windom 985.7552 985.7399 2 0 0 0 0 2 2.0
2.6788 2.5937 delta" = 1.0
40 1 3 A 2 MankatoWest 988.4781 988.2723 9 0 0 0 4 9 9.0 1 1 1 RUN_TIME
7 Fairmont 981.4617 980.0428 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 15:02_2nd
7.0164 8.2295 delta" = 9.0
41 1 4 A 4 Simley 989.1111 991.0898 3 1 0 0 8 4 3.8 1 1 1 REG_TIME
5 HenrySibley 988.1284 989.7518 1 1 0 0 14 2 1.8
0.9827 1.338 delta" = 2.0
42 1 4 A 3 Mahtomedi 992.8776 993.4987 5 0 0 0 4 5 5.0 1 1 1 REG_TIME
6 St.PaulBlades 984.9163 986.1216 0 0 0 0 8 0 0.0
7.9613 7.3771 delta" = 5.0
43 1 5 A 4 Minneapolis 989.7079 991.1074 0 0 0 0 8 0 0.0 0 0 0 REG_TIME
5 ChisagoLakes 989.2826 990.3799 1 2 0 0 4 3 2.6
0.4253 0.7275 delta" = -2.6
44 1 5 A 3 Totino-Grace 989.7646 990.9973 0 0 0 0 4 0 0.0 0 0 0 REG_TIME
6 HolyAngels 988.9851 990.6957 2 1 0 0 4 3 2.8
0.7795 0.3016 < MO delta" = -2.8
45 1 6 A 4 Willmar 990.7499 991.6271 1 1 0 0 10 2 1.8 1 1 1 REG_TIME
5 PrairieCentre 987.8403 988.5939 1 0 0 0 6 1 1.0
2.9096 3.0332 delta" = 0.8
46 1 6 A 3 RiverLakes 991.0794 992.046 2 0 0 0 13 2 2.0 1 1 1 REG_TIME
6 NorthernLakes 987.2727 988.2167 1 0 0 0 18 1 1.0
3.8067 3.8293 delta" = 1.0
47 1 6 A 2 FergusFalls 992.0778 992.7242 9 1 0 0 2 10 9.8 1 1 1 RUN_TIME
7 MorrisArea/BensonArea 979.7377 980.0565 0 0 0 0 2 0 0.0 5:23_2nd
12.3401 12.6677 delta" = 9.8
48 1 7 A 1 DuluthMarshall 993.1339 993.3110 2 2 0 1 12 5 3.6 1 1 1 REG_TIME
8 NorthShore 987.3231 988.8812 1 0 0 0 10 1 1.0
5.8108 4.4298 delta" = 2.6
49 1 7 A 4 Cloquet-Esko-Carlton 990.6799 992.3972 0 0 0 0 4 0 0.0 0 1 1 OT4_9:00
5 Hibbing/Chisholm 990.6028 992.4275 1 0 0 0 4 1 1.0 shots 37_vs_37 !!
0.0771 -0.0303 < MOE delta" = -1.0
50 1 7 A 3 InternationalFalls 991.0989 991.5933 1 1 1 0 6 3 3.05 1 1 1 REG_TIME
6 MooseLakeArea 989.7022 991.0085 1 0 0 0 6 1 1.0
1.3967 0.5848 < MOE delta" = 2.05
51 1 7 A 2 Proctor/Hermantown 992.5915 994.0229 2 0 1 0 8 3 3.25 1 1 1 REG_TIME
7 Eveleth-Gilbert 987.9683 988.2348 0 0 0 0 6 0 0.0
4.6232 5.7881 delta" = 3.25
52 1 8 A 4 DetroitLakes 987.032 987.8866 4 0 0 0 6 4 4.0 0 0 0 REG_TIME
5 ParkRapids 982.4734 983.4536 2 3 0 0 8 5 4.4 Big_Upset
4.5586 4.433 delta" = -0.4
53 1 8 A 3 EastGrandForks 993.1544 993.3453 6 0 0 0 2 6 6.0 1 1 1 REG_TIME
6 Crookston 981.6184 983.3380 1 0 0 0 2 1 1.0
11.5360 10.0073 delta" = 5.0
54 2 3 AA 1 Eagan 996.8454 996.9329 1 1 0 0 6 2 1.8 1 1 1 REG_TIME
5 EastRidge 992.6379 993.8037 0 0 0 0 6 0 0.0
4.2075 3.1292 delta" = 1.8
55 2 7 AA 1 Andover 996.8430 998.0472 2 1 0 0 8 3 2.8 1 1 1 REG_TIME
4 ElkRiver/Zimmerman 993.9878 995.3898 0 2 0 0 6 2 1.6
2.8552 2.6574 delta" = 1.2
56 2 3 AA 2 AppleValley 993.4750 995.2580 0 0 0 0 2 0 0.0 0 0 0 REG_TIME
5 EastRidge 992.6379 993.8037 1 0 0 0 2 1 1.0
0.8371 1.4543 delta" = -1.0
57 2 7 A 1 DuluthMarshall 993.1339 993.3110 1 0 0 0 12 1 1.0 0 0 0 OT1_0:26
5 Hibbing/Chisholm 990.6028 992.4275 2 0 0 0 6 2 2.0
2.5311 0.8835 delta" = -1.0
58 2 7 AA 2 ForestLake 996.2881 996.8850 2 0 0 1 14 3 2.0 1 1 1 REG_TIME
3 GrandRapids/Greenway 994.4621 994.7515 0 0 0 0 10 0 0.0
1.8260 2.1335 delta" = 2.0
59 2 1 A 1 RedWing 994.8108 994.3981 8 2 0 0 4 10 9.6 1 1 1 RUN_TIME
4 Austin 987.0983 986.7468 0 0 0 0 16 0 0.0 8:49_2nd
7.7125 7.6513 delta" = 9.6
60 2 1 A 2 RochesterLourdes 992.0330 993.4413 2 2 2 0 10 6 6.1 1 1 1 RUN_TIME
3 Faribault 990.4926 990.6293 0 0 0 0 8 0 0.0 15:06_3rd
1.5404 2.8120 delta" = 6.1
61 2 3 A 1 Marshall 988.6180 989.1330 6 0 0 0 4 6 6.0 1 1 1 REG_TIME
4 Luverne 987.6959 987.6031 3 0 0 0 0 3 3.0
0.9221 1.5299 delta" = 3.0
62 2 3 A 2 MankatoWest 988.4781 988.2723 1 5 0 0 8 6 5.0 1 1 1 OT1_1:45
3 MankatoEast 988.4340 988.3336 3 2 0 0 14 5 4.6
0.0441 -0.0613 < MOE delta" = 0.4
63 2 7 A 2 Proctor/Hermantown 992.5915 994.0229 1 1 0 0 4 2 1.8 1 1 1 REG_TIME
3 InternationalFalls 991.0989 991.5933 0 1 0 0 6 1 0.8
1.4926 2.4296 delta" = 1.0
64 2 1 AA 1 Farmington 996.2383 996.9257 4 1 1 0 16 6 6.05 1 1 1 RUN_TIME
4 LakevilleNorth 994.9546 996.0242 0 0 0 0 16 0 0.0 11:59_3rd
1.2837 0.9015 delta" = 6.05
65 2 1 AA 2 LakevilleSouth 995.5854 996.6326 6 1 0 0 4 7 6.8 1 1 1 RUN_TIME
6 Owatonna 991.5913 991.7560 0 0 0 0 2 0 0.0 1:06_3rd
3.9941 4.8766 delta" = 6.8
66 2 8 A 1 Warroad 995.6964 997.1227 13 0 2 0 6 15 15.5 1 1 1 RUN_TIME
5 ParkRapids 982.4734 983.4536 0 0 0 0 4 0 0.0 12:31_1st
13.2230 13.6691 delta" = 15.5
67 2 8 A 2 ThiefRiverFalls 994.4935 994.1193 1 1 0 0 12 2 1.8 0 0 0 REG_TIME
3 EastGrandForks 993.1544 993.3453 5 0 0 0 8 5 5.0
1.3391 0.7740 delta" = -3.2
68 2 4 AA 1 Hill-Murray 998.1818 998.6935 6 0 0 0 8 6 6.0 1 1 1 RUN_TIME
5 Roseville 989.9860 992.5018 0 0 0 0 6 0 0.0 12:59_3rd
8.1958 6.1917 delta" = 6.0
69 2 5 A 2 Orono 991.3181 992.9523 3 0 0 0 14 3 3.0 1 1 1 REG_TIME
6 HolyAngels 988.9851 990.6957 0 0 0 0 8 0 0.0
2.3330 2.2566 delta" = 3.0
70 2 5 AA 1 Centennial 999.3528 999.0344 4 1 0 0 10 5 4.8 1 1 1 REG_TIME
4 Rogers 993.5760 994.6876 0 1 0 0 6 1 0.8
5.7768 4.3468 delta" = 4.0
71 2 8 AA 2 Brainerd/LittleFalls 996.5406 995.7778 5 0 1 0 8 6 6.25 1 1 1 RUN_TIME
6 Moorhead 991.4550 991.7495 0 0 0 0 6 0 0.0 4:07_3rd
5.0856 4.0283 delta" = 6.25
72 2 2 AA 1 EdenPrairie 996.4934 997.1945 4 2 2 0 12 8 8.10 1 1 1 RUN_TIME
5 PriorLake 993.6792 994.3075 1 1 0 0 10 2 1.8 16:29_3rd
2.8142 2.8870 delta" = 6.30
73 2 4 A 1 St.PaulUnited 994.7995 995.2424 5 0 0 0 2 5 5.0 1 1 1 REG_TIME
4 Simley 989.1111 991.0898 0 0 0 0 2 0 0.0
5.6884 4.1526 delta" = 5.0
74 2 2 A 2 Hutchinson 992.1586 992.9285 1 0 0 0 4 1 1.0 0 1 1 REG_TIME
3 NewUlm 992.3898 993.0934 1 1 0 2 2 4 1.8
-0.2312 -0.1649 < MOE delta" = -0.8
75 2 6 A 1 Alexandria 995.0156 994.7384 2 0 0 0 10 2 2.0 1 1 1 REG_TIME
4 Willmar 990.7499 991.6271 0 1 0 0 4 1 0.8
4.2657 3.1113 delta" = 1.2
76 2 6 A 2 FergusFalls 992.0778 992.7242 2 0 0 0 2 2 2.0 0 0 1 OT1_0:57
3 RiverLakes 991.0794 992.0460 2 1 0 0 0 3 2.8
0.9984 0.6782 < MOE delta" = -0.8
77 2 8 AA 1 Roseau 996.7869 996.3239 3 0 0 0 8 3 3.0 1 1 1 REG_TIME
4 St.Cloud 994.7823 994.3708 2 0 0 0 8 2 2.0
2.0046 1.9531 delta" = 1.0
78 2 4 AA 2 MoundsView 994.4195 995.0818 1 0 0 0 6 1 1.0 0 1 1 REG_TIME
3 WhiteBearLake 994.4551 995.2827 3 0 0 0 2 3 3.0
-0.0356 -0.2009 < MOE delta" = -2.0
79 2 2 A 1 Delano/Rockford 992.8134 993.4092 4 0 0 0 4 4 4.0 1 1 1 REG_TIME
4 MoundWestonka 990.1762 991.9184 1 0 0 0 4 1 1.0
2.6372 1.4908 delta" = 3.0
80 2 5 A 1 Breck 996.2255 997.3235 9 0 1 0 8 10 10.25 1 1 1 RUN_TIME
5 ChisagoLakes 989.2826 990.3799 0 0 0 0 6 0 0.0 10:55_2nd
6.9429 6.9436 delta" = 10.25
81 2 5 AA 2 MapleGrove 997.7516 997.5522 1 0 0 0 10 1 1.0 0 0 0 REG_TIME
3 Blaine 996.5451 997.1775 3 0 0 0 6 3 3.0
1.2065 0.3747 < MOE delta" = -2.0
82 2 2 AA 2 Minnetonka 995.7326 996.8947 1 0 0 0 4 1 1.0 0 0 0 REG_TIME
3 Shakopee 994.7710 995.7956 2 0 0 0 2 2 2.0
0.9616 1.0991 delta" = -1.0
83 2 4 A 2 SouthStPaul 994.2171 994.7079 4 1 0 1 4 5 3.8 1 1 1 REG_TIME
3 Mahtomedi 992.8776 993.4987 3 0 0 0 6 3 3.0
1.3395 1.2092 delta" = 0.8
84 2 6 AA 1 Edina 999.4273 1000.0000 4 1 0 0 8 5 4.8 1 1 1 REG_TIME
4 Cretin-DerhamHall 993.6184 995.0980 0 0 0 0 6 0 0.0
5.8089 4.9020 delta" = 4.8
85 2 3 AA 1 Eagan 996.8454 996.9329 4 0 0 0 4 4 4.0 1 1 1 REG_TIME
6 Eastview 992.8980 994.9341 1 2 0 0 8 3 2.6
3.9474 1.9988 delta" = 1.4
86 2 6 AA 2 Blake 1000.0000 999.2350 2 1 0 1 10 4 2.8 1 1 1 REG_TIME
3 Wayzata 996.3171 997.1089 0 2 0 0 4 2 1.6
3.6829 2.1261 delta" = 1.2
87 3 7 A 2 Proctor/Hermantown 992.5915 994.0229 5 0 0 0 8 5 5.0 1 1 1 REG_TIME
5 Hibbing/Chisholm 990.6028 992.4275 1 1 0 0 2 2 1.8
1.9887 1.5954 delta" = 3.2
88 3 3 A 1 Marshall 988.6180 989.1330 1 1 0 0 0 2 1.8 1 1 1 OT1_1:33
2 MankatoWest 988.4781 988.2723 1 0 0 0 0 1 1.0
0.1399 0.8607 delta" = 0.8
89 3 1 AA 1 Farmington 996.2383 996.9257 3 2 0 0 14 5 4.6 0 1 1 REG_TIME
2 LakevilleSouth 995.5854 996.6326 4 1 1 0 14 6 6.05
0.6529 0.2931 < MOE delta" = -1.45
90 3 7 AA 1 Andover 996.843 998.0472 3 0 0 0 8 3 3.0 1 1 1 REG_TIME
2 ForestLake 996.2881 996.8850 0 0 0 0 4 0 0.0
3.9362 2.6924 delta" = 3.0
91 3 6 A 1 Alexandria 995.0156 994.7384 1 1 0 1 10 3 1.8 1 1 1 REG_TIME
3 RiverLakes 991.0794 992.0460 0 0 0 0 6 0 0.0
3.9362 2.6924 delta" = 1.8
92 3 8 A 1 Warroad 995.6964 997.1227 2 1 1 0 6 4 4.05 1 1 1 REG_TIME
3 EastGrandForks 993.1544 993.3453 1 0 0 0 6 1 1.0
2.5420 3.7774 delta" = 3.05
93 3 4 A 1 St.PaulUnited 994.7995 995.2424 0 2 0 0 10 2 1.60 1 1 1 OT1_4:55
2 SouthStPaul 994.2171 994.7079 1 0 0 0 10 1 1.00
0.5824 0.5345 < MOE delta" = 0.60
94 3 1 A 1 RedWing 994.8108 994.3981 3 1 0 0 4 4 3.8 1 1 1 REG_TIME
2 RochesterLourdes 992.0330 993.4413 1 0 0 0 6 1 1.0
2.7770 0.9568 delta" = 2.8
95 3 2 A 1 Delano/Rockford 992.8134 993.4092 2 0 0 0 8 2 2.0 0 0 0 REG_TIME
3 NewUlm 992.3898 993.0934 4 1 0 0 6 5 4.8
0.4236 0.3158 < MOE delta" = -2.8
96 3 5 A 1 Breck 996.2255 997.3235 3 0 0 0 4 3 3.0 1 1 1 OT1_0:56
2 Orono 991.3181 992.9523 1 1 0 0 0 2 1.8
4.9074 4.3712 delta" = 1.2
97 3 2 AA 1 EdenPrairie 996.4934 997.1945 2 1 0 0 8 3 2.8 1 1 1 REG_TIME
3 Shakopee 994.7710 995.7956 0 0 0 0 4 0 0.0
1.7224 1.3989 delta" = 2.8
98 3 4 AA 1 Hill-Murray 998.1818 998.6935 2 2 0 0 10 4 3.6 1 1 1 REG_TIME
3 WhiteBearLake 994.4551 995.2827 0 0 0 0 10 0 0.0
3.7267 3.4108 delta" = 3.6
99 3 5 AA 1 Centennial 999.3528 999.0344 2 1 0 0 4 3 2.8 1 1 1 REG_TIME
3 Blaine 996.5451 997.1775 0 0 0 0 4 0 0.0
2.8077 1.8569 delta" = 2.8
100 3 8 AA 1 Roseau 996.7869 996.3239 0 1 0 0 6 1 0.8 0 1 1 OT3_1:32
2 Brainerd/LittleFalls 996.5406 995.7778 2 0 0 0 10 2 2.0
0.2463 0.5461 < MOE delta" = -1.2
101 3 6 AA 1 Edina 999.4273 1000.0000 2 2 0 0 8 4 3.6 1 0 1 REG_TIME
2 Blake 1000.0000 999.2350 1 1 0 0 10 2 1.8
-0.5727 0.7650 delta" = 1.8
Play-In = Rnd 0 delta" = observed CORR SCORE DIFFERENTIAL
Quarter-Finals = RND 1 predicted CORR SCORE DIFFERENTIAL
Semi-Finals = RND 2
Sectional-Finals = RND 3 MOE = Margin of Error = 0.67 goal
State_Quarter = RND 4 L
State_Semis = RND 5 C.I = [delta +/- MOE ] S
State_Finals = RND 6 95% C.I = [delta +/- 0.67] M K Q s
S R R h
E P S E P H A A o
MSHSL TRANS S P H N I RAW CORR S C N t P
## RND W/L CLS SEED TEAM KRACH LSQRANK G G G G M SCORE SCORE L H K s P Notes
== === === === ==== ====================== ========= ========= == == == == == ===== ===== = = = === === ==============
102 QTR W A 2 Breck 996.3050 997.1595 7 2 0 0 6 9 8.6 1 1 1 54 2-4 RUN_12:23_2nd
L A 8 Marshall 989.1339 988.9223 2 0 0 0 8 2 2.0 15 0-3
-------- -------- --- --
RUN +7.1711 +8.2372 delta" = 6.6 69
103 QTR L A 3 RedWing 994.8104 994.4037 1 0 0 0 10 1 0.83 0 0 0 24 0-4 EAG_@_16:25_3rd
W A 6 Proctor/Hermantown 992.8189 993.7825 2 0 0 1 10 3 2.00 26 0-4 ENG_@_15:11_3rd
-------- -------- ---- --
REG +1.9915 +0.6212 < MOE delta" = -1.17 50
104 QTR W A 1 Warroad 996.1836 997.0438 5 0 0 0 6 5 5.00 1 1 1 35 0-1
L A 7 NewUlm 992.9573 992.9509 0 0 0 0 2 0 0.00 20 0-3
-------- -------- ---- --
REG +3.2263 +4.0929 delta" = 5.0 55
105 QTR W A 4 Alexandria 994.9503 994.4402 3 0 0 0 8 3 3.0 1 1 1 18 0-3
L A 5 St.PaulUnited 994.9874 995.0856 2 0 0 0 6 2 2.0 35 0-4
-------- -------- ---- --
REG -0.0371 -0.6454 < MOE 1.0 53
106 QTR W AA 2 Centennial 999.6622 998.8639 1 1 0 0 6 2 1.8 1 1 1 33 1-5
L AA 6 LakevilleSouth 996.0700 996.6627 0 0 0 0 10 0 0.0 32 0-3
-------- -------- --- --
REG +3.5922 +2.2012 0.8 65
107 QTR L AA 3 Hill-Murray 998.5009 998.7433 1 0 0 0 6 1 1.0 0 0 0 27 0-1
W AA 7 Eagan 996.9765 996.6117 1 1 0 0 2 2 1.8 15
-------- -------- --- --
REG +1.5244 +2.1316 -0.8 42
108 QTR W AA 1 Edina 1000.0000 1000.0000 2 2 0 0 8 4 3.6 1 1 1 32 2-3
L AA 8 Brainerd/LittleFalls 996.7836 995.7490 0 0 0 0 8 0 0.0 10
-------- -------- --- --
REG +3.2164 +4.2510 3.6 42
109 QTR L AA 4 Andover 997.2360 997.7869 0 0 0 0 6 0 0.0 0 1 1 29 0-1
W AA 5 EdenPrairie 996.5704 997.1954 1 0 0 1 2 2 1.0 31 0-3 ENG_@_15:38_3rd
-------- -------- --- ---
REG +0.6656 +0.5915 < MOE -1.0 60
110 SEMI W A 2 Breck 996.3050 997.1595 5 1 0 0 8 6 5.8 1 1 1 44 1-6 RUN_@_9:30_3rd
L A 6 Proctor/Hermantown 992.8189 993.7825 0 0 0 0 12 0 0.0 9 0-4
-------- -------- --- --
RUN 3.4861 3.3770 5.8 53
111 SEMI W A 1 Warroad 996.1836 997.0438 5 2 0 0 4 7 6.6 1 1 1 27 2-4 RUN_@_6:27_3rd
L A 4 Alexandria 994.9503 994.4402 1 0 0 0 8 1 1.0 13
-------- -------- --- --
RUN 1.2333 2.6036 5.6 40
112 SEMI W AA 2 Centennial 999.6622 998.8639 4 2 0 0 12 6 5.6 1 1 1 23 2-5 RUN_@_10:13_3rd
L AA 7 Eagan 996.9765 996.6117 1 0 0 0 10 1 1.0 23 0-6 ESG_@_13:51_3rd
-------- -------- --- --
REG 2.6857 2.2522 4.6 46
113 SEMI W AA 1 Edina 1000.0000 1000.0000 3 0 0 1 4 4 3.0 1 1 1 47 0-1 ENG_@_16:57_3rd
L AA 5 EdenPrairie 996.5704 997.1954 2 0 0 0 2 2 2.0 15 0-2
-------- -------- --- --
REG 3.4296 2.8046 1.0 62
114 FINA L A 1 Warroad 996.1836 997.0438 0 2 0 0 8 2 1.6 0 1 1 27 2-3
W A 2 Breck 996.3050 997.1595 3 0 0 0 8 3 3.0 28 0-3 OT1_@_0:08
-------- -------- ---- --
OT1 -0.1214 -0.1157 < MOE -1.4 56
115 FINA W AA 1 Edina 1000.0000 1000.0000 1 1 0 0 8 2 1.8 1 1 1 27 1-2
L AA 2 Centennial 999.6622 998.8639 0 1 0 0 4 1 0.8 14 1-4
-------- -------- --- --
REG 0.3378 1.1361 1.0 41
116 3rd W A 4 Alexandria 994.9503 994.4402 1 0 0 0 8 1 1.0 1 1 1 21 0-1 ESG_0:18_2nd
L A 6 Proctor/Hermantown 992.8189 993.7825 0 0 0 0 2 0 0.0 18 0-4
-------- -------- --- --
REG 2.1314 0.6577 < MOE 1.0 39
117 3rd L AA 5 EdenPrairie 996.5704 997.1954 0 0 0 0 14 0 0.0 0 1 0 31 0-4
W AA 7 Eagan 996.9765 996.6117 2 1 0 0 10 3 2.8 34 1-6
-------- -------- --- --
REG -0.4061 0.5837 < MOE -2.8 65
118 CONSOL W A 3 RedWing 994.8104 994.4037 6 1 0 0 2 7 6.8 1 1 1 47 1-5 RUN_@_4:42_3rd
L A 8 Marshall 989.1339 988.9223 0 0 0 0 10 0 0.0 21 0-1
-------- -------- --- --
RUN 5.6765 5.4814 6.8 68
119 CONSOL W A 5 St.PaulUnited 994.9874 995.0856 3 2 0 0 14 5 4.6 1 1 1 32 2-5
L A 7 NewUlm 992.9573 992.9509 2 0 0 0 12 2 2.0 23 0-6
-------- -------- --- --
REG 2.0301 2.1347 2.6 55
120 CONSOL L AA 3 Hill-Murray 998.5009 998.7433 0 1 0 0 10 1 1.0 0 0 0 40 1-6
W AA 6 LakevilleSouth 996.0700 996.6627 3 1 0 0 12 4 3.8 32 1-5
-------- -------- --- --
REG 2.4309 2.0806 -2.8 72
121 CONSOL W AA 4 Andover 997.2360 997.7869 4 0 0 0 8 4 4.0 1 1 1 39 0-5 OT1_6:51
L AA 8 Brainerd/LittleFalls 996.7836 995.7490 2 1 0 0 12 3 2.8 24 1-3
-------- -------- --- --
OT1 0.4524 2.0379 1.2 63
122 CONSOL L A 3 RedWing 994.8104 994.4037 2 0 0 0 6 2 2.0 0 1 1 34 0-7
W A 5 St.PaulUnited 994.9874 995.0856 1 1 1 0 14 3 3.05 25 1-3 OT1_PPG_0:42
-------- -------- ---- --
OT1 -0.1770 -0.6819 -1.05 59
123 CONSOL W AA 4 Andover 997.2360 997.7869 5 0 0 0 6 5 5.0 1 1 1 57 0-5 OT3_ESG_3:20
L AA 6 LakevilleSouth 996.0700 996.6627 3 1 0 0 10 4 3.8 34
-------- -------- --- --
OT3 1.1660 1.1242 1.2 91
2018 MSHSL State Tournament Qualifiers
-------------------------------------
1 AA LakevilleSouth
2 AA EdenPrairie
3 AA Eagan
4 AA Hill-Murray
5 AA Centennial
6 AA Edina
7 AA Andover
8 AA Brainerd/LittleFalls
------------------------------
1 A RedWing
2 A NewUlm
3 A Marshall
4 A St.PaulUnited
5 A Breck
6 A Alexandria
7 A Proctor/Hermantown
8 A Warroad