MSHSL State Tournament Computer Ranking Predictions

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LSQRANK
Posts: 165
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm

MSHSL State Tournament Computer Ranking Predictions

Post by LSQRANK » Tue Feb 20, 2018 1:54 am

Below are the computer generated rating numbers for the teams in the MSHSL Girls State Hockey Tournament. Each Team's computer ratings are given, and the predicted score differential by both (Transformed) KRACH & LSQRANK.
Enjoy ...

Code: Select all

                                                                              T = TIE &#40;delta' << MOE, i.e. zero is contained in 95% C.I.&#41;
                                                                              0 = BAD &#40;outside   of 95% C.I.&#41; or lower  seed won
                                                                              1 = OK  &#40;contained in 95% C.I.&#41; or higher seed won
																					 
Play-In          = Rnd 0                  delta" = observed  CORR SCORE DIFFERENTIAL                                                          
Quarter-Finals   = RND 1                  delta' = predicted CORR SCORE DIFFERENTIAL                GAME
Semi-Finals      = RND 2                                                                            PREDICTION 
Sectional-Finals = RND 3                  MOE = Margin of Error  = 0.67 goal                        ----------
State_Quarter    = RND 4                                                                                     L 
State_Semis      = RND 5                   C.I = &#91;delta +/- MOE &#93;                                            S 
State_Finals     = RND 6               95% C.I = &#91;delta +/- 0.67&#93;                                      M  K  Q 
                                                                                                       S  R  R 
         COMP                                                        E   P   S   E   P                 H  A  A 
         PRE     MSHSL                             TRANS             S   P   H   N   I     RAW  CORR   S  C  N 
##  RND  W/L CLS SEED  TEAM                        KRACH   LSQRANK   G   G   G   G   M   SCORE  SCORE  L  H  K  Notes  
==  ===  === === ====  ======================  ========= =========  ==  ==  ==  ==  ==   =====  =====  =  =  =  =========================
 1  QTR  W     A    2  Breck                    996.3050  997.1595
           L   A    8  Marshall                 989.1339  988.9223
                                                --------  --------
                                           RUN   +7.1711   +8.2372
 
 2  QTR  W     A    3  RedWing                  994.8104  994.4037
           L   A    6  Proctor/Hermantown       992.8189  993.7825
                                                --------  --------
                                           REG   +1.9915   +0.6212
 
 3  QTR  W     A    1  Warroad                  996.1836  997.0438
           L   A    7  NewUlm                   992.9573  992.9509
                                                --------  --------
                                           REG   +3.2263   +4.0929
 
 4  QTR    L   A    4  Alexandria               994.9503  994.4402
         W     A    5  St.PaulUnited            994.9874  995.0856
                                                --------  -------- 
                                           OT    -0.0371   -0.6454  delta" << MOE &#58; either team could win; 
                                                                    
 5  QTR  W    AA    2  Centennial               999.6622  998.8639
           L  AA    6  LakevilleSouth           996.0700  996.6627
                                                --------  -------- 
                                           REG   +3.5922   +2.2012
 
 6  QTR  W    AA    3  Hill-Murray              998.5009  998.7433
           L  AA    7  Eagan                    996.9765  996.6117
                                                --------  -------- 
                                           REG   +1.5244   +2.1316

 7  QTR  W    AA    1  Edina                   1000.0000 1000.0000
           L  AA    8  Brainerd/LittleFalls     996.7836  995.7490
                                                --------  -------- 
                                           REG   +3.2164   +4.2510
	
 8  QTR  W    AA    4  Andover                  997.2360  997.7869
           L  AA    5  EdenPrairie              996.5704  997.1954
                                                --------  -------- 
                                           OT    +0.6656   +0.5915  delta" << MOE &#58; either team could win; 
                                                                    Edge to EP due to State-2017 experience                                                  

 9  SEMI       A
               A
                                                --------  --------			    
 
 
10  SEMI       A
               A
                                                --------  --------			   


11  SEMI      AA
              AA
                                                --------  --------			  


12  SEMI      AA
              AA
                                                --------  --------			  


13  FINAL      A
               A
                                                --------  --------

14  FINAL     AA
              AA
                                                --------  --------			  


15  3rd        A
               A
                                                --------  --------			   


16  3rd       AA
              AA
                                                --------  --------			  



Computer Rating Profiles 
Updated Feb 19, 2018

SCORE     TRANSFORMED                                                        SCORE
KRACH     KRACH                           KRACH   LSQRANK                    LSQRANK
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1534.556 1000.0000                        Edina   Edina                     1000.0000            
1486.91   999.9482                        Blake   Blake                      999.1663            
1249.413  999.6622                   Centennial   Centennial                 998.8639            
615.998   998.5009                  Hill-Murray   Hill-Murray                998.7433            
383.828   997.7249                   MapleGrove   Andover                    997.7869            
284.85    997.2360                      Andover   MapleGrove                 997.2395            
272.506   997.1633                       Blaine   EdenPrairie                997.1954            
243.137   996.9765                        Eagan   Breck                      997.1595            
216.139   996.7836         Brainerd/LittleFalls   Warroad                    997.0438            
197.534   996.6362                      Wayzata   Blaine                     996.9786            
189.766   996.5704                  EdenPrairie   Farmington                 996.9294            
177.41    996.4602                       Roseau   Wayzata                    996.9139            
165.807   996.3494                   Farmington   LakevilleSouth             996.6627            
161.368   996.3050                        Breck   Eagan                      996.6117            
149.836   996.1836                      Warroad   ForestLake                 996.6016            
139.792   996.0700               LakevilleSouth   Minnetonka                 996.5880            
139.559   996.0672                   ForestLake   Roseau                     995.8901            
118.558   995.8003                   Minnetonka   Brainerd/LittleFalls       995.7490            
80.894    995.1748               LakevilleNorth   Shakopee                   995.6545            
76.447    995.0823                     Shakopee   LakevilleNorth             995.5974            
72.136    994.9874                St.PaulUnited   ElkRiver/Zimmerman         995.3373            
70.518    994.9503                   Alexandria   WhiteBearLake              995.3226            
64.736    994.8104                      RedWing   Anoka                      995.1849            
62.015    994.7402                WhiteBearLake   St.PaulUnited              995.0856            
61.365    994.7230                     St.Cloud   Cretin-DerhamHall          995.0071            
53.775    994.5071         GrandRapids/Greenway   AppleValley                994.9449            
53.304    994.4928                   MoundsView   Eastview                   994.8461            
46.517    994.2702                  SouthStPaul   MoundsView                 994.8427            
46.055    994.2539              ThiefRiverFalls   GrandRapids/Greenway       994.6423            
44.894    994.2121           ElkRiver/Zimmerman   SouthStPaul                994.5073            
44.174    994.1857            Cretin-DerhamHall   Rogers                     994.4985            
36.793    993.8870            NorthWrightCounty   HolyFamily/Waconia         994.4958            
33.689    993.7430                    PriorLake   Alexandria                 994.4402            
31.824    993.6500                  AppleValley   Burnsville                 994.4270            
30.677    993.5901                       Rogers   Hopkins/St.LouisPark       994.4117            
27.876    993.4337               EastGrandForks   RedWing                    994.4037            
27.071    993.3859                        Anoka   NorthWrightCounty          994.2271            
27.019    993.3828                   Burnsville   St.Cloud                   994.1879            
26.853    993.3727         Hopkins/St.LouisPark   PriorLake                  994.0693            
26.56     993.3548           HolyFamily/Waconia   Chaska/Chanhassen          993.9359            
25.919    993.3149                     Eastview   EastRidge                  993.8192            
24.622    993.2311                    EastRidge   ThiefRiverFalls            993.7848            
23.793    993.1752           ParkofCottageGrove   Proctor/Hermantown         993.7825            
20.82     992.9573                       NewUlm   ChamplinPark/CoonRapids    993.7410            
20.538    992.9351            Chaska/Chanhassen   ParkofCottageGrove         993.7361            
19.874    992.8814           Sartell/SaukRapids   Benilde-St.Margaret's      993.6290            
19.145    992.8204                    Mahtomedi   Cambridge-Isanti/Mora/PC   993.3472            
19.127    992.8189           Proctor/Hermantown   NewPrague                  993.3448            
18.865    992.7964               DuluthMarshall   DodgeCounty                993.3418            
18.051    992.7244                RochesterMayo   Stillwater                 993.3087            
17.876    992.7085                    NewPrague   RochesterLourdes           993.3049            
17.568    992.6802              Delano/Rockford   Mahtomedi                  993.2545            
17.414    992.6658     Cambridge-Isanti/Mora/PC   EastGrandForks             993.1561            
15.981    992.5257      ChamplinPark/CoonRapids   Delano/Rockford            993.1419            
15.25     992.4493                   Northfield   DuluthMarshall             992.9758            
14.474    992.3642                  DodgeCounty   NewUlm                     992.9509            
12.555    992.1322                   Stillwater   Orono                      992.9055            
11.717    992.0196             RochesterLourdes   Sartell/SaukRapids         992.8339            
11.645    992.0095                   Hutchinson   Hutchinson                 992.6895            
11.584    992.0009        Benilde-St.Margaret's   Northfield                 992.6313            
10.983    991.9141                    Princeton   Princeton                  992.5097            
10.715    991.8738                  FergusFalls   SpringLakePark             992.4900            
10.202    991.7938                     Moorhead   Roseville                  992.4482            
10.162    991.7874                     Owatonna   FergusFalls                992.3743            
7.957     991.3888       St.Francis/NorthBranch   BloomingtonJefferson       992.3529            
7.811     991.3586                        Orono   Duluth                     992.3326            
7.315     991.2517                   RiverLakes   Hibbing/Chisholm           992.2944            
7.202     991.2263                      Buffalo   Buffalo                    992.2927            
7.062     991.1944         BloomingtonJefferson   Cloquet-Esko-Carlton       992.1663            
7.018     991.1842                       Duluth   St.Francis/NorthBranch     992.1344            
6.836     991.1414           InternationalFalls   RiverLakes                 991.8166            
6.272     991.0011             Hibbing/Chisholm   MoundWestonka              991.7155            
6.13      990.9638               SpringLakePark   Moorhead                   991.6349            
5.364     990.7464                      Willmar   InternationalFalls         991.5502            
4.692     990.5285                    Roseville   RochesterMayo              991.5453            
4.449     990.4419         Cloquet-Esko-Carlton   Owatonna                   991.4873            
4.219     990.3555                    Faribault   Willmar                    991.4001            
3.634     990.1126                MoundWestonka   Hastings                   991.2691            
3.605     990.0995                     Hastings   Simley                     990.8885            
2.55      989.5363                MooseLakeArea   Minneapolis                990.7861            
2.429     989.4572              MinnehahaUnited   MooseLakeArea              990.7472            
2.387     989.4288                 Totino-Grace   NorthSt.Paul/Tartan        990.7219            
2.346     989.4007                 ChisagoLakes   Totino-Grace               990.6241            
2.313     989.3776                  Minneapolis   HolyAngels                 990.5745            
2.151     989.2595                       Simley   Faribault                  990.5665            
1.991     989.1339                     Marshall   ChisagoLakes               990.1331            
1.965     989.1125                   HolyAngels   Osseo/ParkCenter           990.1058            
1.865     989.0276          NorthSt.Paul/Tartan   Rosemount                  989.7780            
1.749     988.9232                    Rosemount   Irondale                   989.6973            
1.405     988.5673                     Irondale   MinnehahaUnited            989.6241            
1.32      988.4659                  MankatoWest   HenrySibley                989.5235            
1.224     988.3432             Osseo/ParkCenter   RobbinsdaleArmstrong/Coope 988.9588           
1.193     988.3016                  MankatoEast   Marshall                   988.9223            
0.973     987.9705                  HenrySibley   Woodbury                   988.8549            
0.971     987.9672              Eveleth-Gilbert   NorthShore                 988.7330            
0.894     987.8330                     Woodbury   Bemidji                    988.5093            
0.852     987.7549  RobbinsdaleArmstrong/Cooper   PrairieCentre              988.4757            
0.846     987.7434                PrairieCentre   Eveleth-Gilbert            988.1537            
0.792     987.6364                      Luverne   NorthernLakes              988.1482            
0.644     987.3006                   NorthShore   MankatoWest                988.0436            
0.608     987.2073                       Austin   MankatoEast                988.0119            
0.603     987.1939                NorthernLakes   Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato   987.9962            
0.558     987.0680               MinnesotaRiver   DetroitLakes               987.5560            
0.483     986.8339        RochesterJohnMarshall   Luverne                    987.2094            
0.411     986.5721                 DetroitLakes   MinnesotaRiver             986.6721            
0.396     986.5118                      Bemidji   RochesterJohnMarshall      986.3972            
0.24      985.7002                       Windom   Austin                     986.3615            
0.218     985.5444     Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato   St.PaulBlades              985.9985            
0.196     985.3721                    AlbertLea   Windom                     985.5512            
0.164     985.0835                       Waseca   Waseca                     985.1958            
0.148     984.9173             RochesterCentury   AlbertLea                  984.5979            
0.141     984.8389                St.PaulBlades   RochesterCentury           983.8151            
0.11      984.4370                  Worthington   Crookston                  983.4160            
0.069     983.6827                   ParkRapids   ParkRapids                 983.3809            
0.028     982.2256                    Crookston   Worthington                982.4974            
0.018     981.5126                     Fairmont   MorrisArea/BensonArea      980.0557            
0.008     980.2052        MorrisArea/BensonArea   Fairmont                   979.7668            
 
Last edited by LSQRANK on Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

zooomx
Posts: 396
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2009 3:34 pm

Post by zooomx » Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:41 am

Interesting, and thanks for posting this. I think for the SPU/Alex game I am unsure if 2017 State Experience is a factor. Both teams played 3 games at state last year, and both won 2 of 3. Alex played Blake just as well as SPU did. Grant it, SPU was in winning bracket and championship game. SPU 4th trip in 5 years, Alexandria 6th straight appearance. So most girls on both teams have been there repeatedly.

Both teams look pretty darn even on paper. I like Alex's ability to keep the puck out of the net. Only one game of 4 goals given up (Maple Grove). Both teams up and down in terms of scoring. The tournament as a whole is intriguing. Should be a fun ride!

LSQRANK
Posts: 165
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm

Post by LSQRANK » Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:57 pm

zooomx wrote:Interesting, and thanks for posting this. I think for the SPU/Alex game I am unsure if 2017 State Experience is a factor. Both teams played 3 games at state last year, and both won 2 of 3. Alex played Blake just as well as SPU did. Grant it, SPU was in winning bracket and championship game. SPU 4th trip in 5 years, Alexandria 6th straight appearance. So most girls on both teams have been there repeatedly.

Both teams look pretty darn even on paper. I like Alex's ability to keep the puck out of the net. Only one game of 4 goals given up (Maple Grove). Both teams up and down in terms of scoring. The tournament as a whole is intriguing. Should be a fun ride!

Good point, I admittedly did not do my homework on ALEX's previous appearances, so I agree, no advantage to either one-way or another on that account.

The KRACH differential is nearly zero, so that is predicting a multi-OT affair.
The LSQRANK differential is right on the borderline between being inside or outside of the Margin of Error... so again a 1 goal score difference at best I think (not incuding ENG's), but might be determined in REG Time.

ghshockeyfan
Posts: 6132
Joined: Thu Jun 05, 2003 2:33 pm
Location: Inver Grove Heights, MN
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Final Totals for state

Post by ghshockeyfan » Sun Feb 25, 2018 10:40 am

Here's the final tally I counted up quickly (predicting winners only, no other factors):

State Tourney Only:

1. KRACH 17 of 22 correct = 77.3%
2. LSQ 16 of 22 correct = 72.7% (only difference between KRACH was the EP/Eagan game)
3. COACH 15 of 22 correct = 68.2%
4. QRF 14 of 22 correct = 63.6%

Image

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