2018-19 KRACH RANK - MGHCA WEBSITE - Updated 2/24 (8098) - FINAL

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jg2112
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Re: 2018-19 KRACH RANK - MGHCA WEBSITE - Updated 1/27 (5877)

Post by jg2112 » Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:02 am

Going into the last week of the season, here is what KRACH declares should be the 8 state tournament representatives for AA:

Blake; Forest Lake; Edina; Andover; Wayzata; Roseau; Brainerd / LF; Eden Prairie

If form holds, here's the group of teams that will be in St. Paul:

Lakeville North (20); Eden Prairie (8); Eagan (13); Hill-Murray (9); Maple Grove (10); Blake (1); Forest Lake (2); Roseau (6)

A couple of thoughts on this:

Sections 1AA, 3AA and 4AA are not strong. Section 4AA has one team with a record above .500, whereas Section 2AA has one team with a record below .500.

The idea that one of Blake, Edina or Wayzata will not play in the 6AA Section final is absurd.

MNHockeyFan
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Re: 2018-19 KRACH RANK - MGHCA WEBSITE - Updated 1/27 (5877)

Post by MNHockeyFan » Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:17 am

Some things never change, unfortunately.

Lace'emUp
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Re: 2018-19 KRACH RANK - MGHCA WEBSITE - Updated 1/27 (5877)

Post by Lace'emUp » Mon Jan 28, 2019 11:41 am

Same argument / assessment comes up every year. If they eliminated sections and had a 64 team tournament, there would still be upsets and a couple of those teams might not make the final eight (examples of Edina losing to Blaine earlier this year and Brainerd just losing to Buffalo). Even if it was a final 16 team tournament with no sections, upsets can still happen. No system is perfect unless you have no playoff system and simply want the KRACH or coaches vote on the final 8.

However, going back over the last 5 years, the State Tournament championship game has never included anyone below 5th place in end-of-regular season posted KRACH data. Again, this is at the end-of-the regular season data. Back in 2014-15, Hill Murray was 5th in the KRACH data, then ended up winning it. Same goes for Eden Prairie the next year. But no matter what playoff format you want to run, look at the KRACH top 5 at the end-of-regular season and there's a strong chance the champion will come from that group. With 2 sections dominating the top 5, it still can happen. Last year sections 5AA and 6AA had 4 of the top 5 in KRACH and they both still sent teams to the championship game.



ghshockeyfan
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2/6 (6866) - one reg season game left tonight...

Post by ghshockeyfan » Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:42 pm

One regular season game is left tonight. Tomorrow this will be final for the regular season.

Section is updated with the Section Seeds by coaches.

Amazing what a difference the Roseau/Warroad tie made in the overall rankings.

Most Recent Ranking Links:
==========================================
OVERALL:
http://www.bgoski.com/KRACH_OA_20190206.htm
CLASS AA:
http://www.bgoski.com/KRACH_AA_20190206.htm
CLASS A:
http://www.bgoski.com/KRACH_A_20190206.htm
SECTION:
http://www.bgoski.com/KRACH_SEC_20190206.htm
SOS (Strength-Of-Schedule) is at:
http://www.bgoski.com/KRACH_SOS_20190206.htm
==========================================
Image

MNHockeyFan
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Re: 2018-19 KRACH RANK - MGHCA WEBSITE - Updated 2/6 (6866)

Post by MNHockeyFan » Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:24 am

Interesting that there are only two exceptions where the No. 1 ranked team, according to KRACH, is not the actual No. 1 seeded team. Those are in 1AA and 8AA.
1AA - Lakeville North over Farmington?
8AA - Roseau over Brainerd/Little Falls?

bodyup88
Posts: 261
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:58 am

Re: 2018-19 KRACH RANK - MGHCA WEBSITE - Updated 2/6 (6866)

Post by bodyup88 » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:25 am

Thanks for putting this together all year, ghshockeyfan - great information. A couple interesting observations on the seeding vs. the KRACH ranking.

1) 1AA saw the most changes from the KRACH rankings, with only 3 of the 9 seeds in their KRACH spots
2) 5AA was interesting with CP/CR jumping from the 6 KRACH ranking to the #3 seed. A real balanced section behind Maple Grove.
3) How about North Wright County in section 8AA? Their conference title, 20-5 record and #13 overall KRACH ranking probably entitles them to take the 317 mile trip from Albertville to Roseau on Tuesday, Feb 12 as the #3 seed vs. the #2 Rams. Should be a very good game as they lost at the Ram Center 5-4 on Dec 8, squandering a 3-1 lead after two periods before Santl and Stoskopf got loose for 4 goals in the third. The Riverhawks other 4 losses came at Cambridge (which they later avenged), at Brainerd 4-2 and vs. Brainerd 3-2 in the Edina Christmas tourney and at Eden Prairie 4-2, their only loss in their last 11 games.

bodyup88
Posts: 261
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:58 am

Re: 2018-19 KRACH RANK - MGHCA WEBSITE - Updated 2/6 (6866)

Post by bodyup88 » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:45 am

One other note: the loser of the potential Roseau vs. NWC game (as well as the loser of the potential Wayzata vs. Edina semi-final game in 6AA) will get exactly as many post-season games (2) as Rochester John Marshall, the 64th ranked AA team (out of 65) with a KRACH rating of 0.369, just ahead of Mayo's 0.362.

Lace'emUp
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Re: 2018-19 KRACH RANK - MGHCA WEBSITE - Updated 2/6 (6866)

Post by Lace'emUp » Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:39 am

MNHockeyFan wrote:
Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:24 am
Interesting that there are only two exceptions where the No. 1 ranked team, according to KRACH, is not the actual No. 1 seeded team. Those are in 1AA and 8AA.
1AA - Lakeville North over Farmington?
8AA - Roseau over Brainerd/Little Falls?
1-seed Farmington beat 2-seed LN twice head-to-head in the regular season. Farm had a stronger SOS.
1-seed Brainerd beat 2-seed Roseau twice head-to head in the regular season. Brainerd had a stronger SOS.
Due to that, the seeding make complete sense, IMO.

MNHockeyFan
Posts: 7260
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Re: 2018-19 KRACH RANK - MGHCA WEBSITE - Updated 2/6 (6866)

Post by MNHockeyFan » Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:27 pm

Lace'emUp wrote:
Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:39 am
MNHockeyFan wrote:
Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:24 am
Interesting that there are only two exceptions where the No. 1 ranked team, according to KRACH, is not the actual No. 1 seeded team. Those are in 1AA and 8AA.
1AA - Lakeville North over Farmington?
8AA - Roseau over Brainerd/Little Falls?
1-seed Farmington beat 2-seed LN twice head-to-head in the regular season. Farm had a stronger SOS.
1-seed Brainerd beat 2-seed Roseau twice head-to head in the regular season. Brainerd had a stronger SOS.
Due to that, the seeding make complete sense, IMO.
Yeah, I wasn't questioning the seeding, but just pointing out that in all other sections the highest rated team in their section (according to KRACH) got the No. 1 seed, whereas in these two that was not the case.


ghshockeyfan
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2/10 (7277)

Post by ghshockeyfan » Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:36 am

Most Recent Ranking Links:
==========================================
OVERALL:
http://www.bgoski.com/KRACH_OA_20190210.htm
CLASS AA:
http://www.bgoski.com/KRACH_AA_20190210.htm
CLASS A:
http://www.bgoski.com/KRACH_A_20190210.htm
SECTION:
http://www.bgoski.com/KRACH_SEC_20190210.htm
SOS (Strength-Of-Schedule) is at:
http://www.bgoski.com/KRACH_SOS_20190210.htm
==========================================
Image

WBLPuck99
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon Jan 07, 2019 9:46 am

Re: 2018-19 KRACH RANK - MGHCA WEBSITE - Updated 1/27 (5877)

Post by WBLPuck99 » Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:34 pm

jg2112 wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:02 am
Going into the last week of the season, here is what KRACH declares should be the 8 state tournament representatives for AA:

Blake; Forest Lake; Edina; Andover; Wayzata; Roseau; Brainerd / LF; Eden Prairie

If form holds, here's the group of teams that will be in St. Paul:

Lakeville North (20); Eden Prairie (8); Eagan (13); Hill-Murray (9); Maple Grove (10); Blake (1); Forest Lake (2); Roseau (6)

A couple of thoughts on this:

Sections 1AA, 3AA and 4AA are not strong. Section 4AA has one team with a record above .500, whereas Section 2AA has one team with a record below .500.

The idea that one of Blake, Edina or Wayzata will not play in the 6AA Section final is absurd.
If you go back to the 2008-2014ish era, section 4AA typically housed 4 top 10-15ish teams in the state, including multiple state championships. It's cyclical. Ultimately, the recession seemed to have hit schools in the 4AA section pretty hard and caused a major drop in numbers for the current 13-17 year old age bracket. Only Hill has remained strong through that age level and they obviously have slightly different circumstances.



MNHockeyFan
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Joined: Tue Nov 07, 2006 10:28 pm

Re: 2018-19 KRACH RANK - MGHCA WEBSITE - Updated 2/24 (8098) - FINAL

Post by MNHockeyFan » Sun Feb 24, 2019 10:31 am

It sure would have been fun to see "No. 1 Overall" Blake in the AA tourney. All three of their games vs. Edina, including the 6AA section final, were decided by one goal. And No. 3 Forest Lake did not get in the tournament either.

But in Class A all of the Top 5, and 7 of the Top 9, made it into the tournament, so that was fun to see.

Thanks again, Brian, for posting the KRACH rankings this season.

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