Section predictions

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moosepaw
Posts: 175
Joined: Tue Oct 18, 2011 5:12 pm

Section predictions

Post by moosepaw » Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:13 am

As I looked back on my earlier predictions for the season I wasn’t to far off:

Here we go-
1AA taking Lakeville South over inconsistent penalty riddled Farmington. Confidence factor 75%
2AA Minnetonka over EP, the best game will be HF getting to the semis and playing EP. lots of emotion in that game.
80% confidence factor in Skippers.
3AA AV over Braves. Confidence factor 70%
4AA Stillwater over the HM, Hill hasn’t played well all year except first game. CF 50%
5AA MG over Blaine triple OT, CF 70%
6AA Edina over Blake, CF 90% Blake has been playing better lately not sure if it was because of the one game MIA for our head coach.
7AA Andover over NWC close game 55%
8AA Roseau over Brainerd, CF 50%

moosepaw
Posts: 175
Joined: Tue Oct 18, 2011 5:12 pm

Re: Section predictions

Post by moosepaw » Sun Feb 02, 2020 9:13 am

Please post them when you get them.

MNHockeyFan
Posts: 7260
Joined: Tue Nov 07, 2006 10:28 pm

Re: Section predictions

Post by MNHockeyFan » Sun Feb 02, 2020 11:47 am

According to QRF:
1AA Lakeville South over Farmington
2AA Minnetonka over Eden Prairie
3AA Apple Valley over Burnsville
4AA Stillwater over Hill-Murray
5AA Maple Grove over Blaine
6AA Edina over Blake
7AA Andover over Forest Lake
8AA Roseau over Brainerd/Little Falls

http://www.minnesota-scores.net./classs ... 10&class=3

Should those rankings prove to be accurate - which they won't because upsets are guaranteed! - the following would be the unseeded teams at the State Tournament:
No. 14 Roseau
No. 9 Apple Valley
No. 8 Stillwater

Eagles93
Posts: 483
Joined: Sat Jan 03, 2004 5:04 pm

Re: Section predictions

Post by Eagles93 » Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:11 pm

According to KRACH:
1AA Lakeville South over Farmington
2AA Eden Prairie over Minnetonka
3AA Apple Valley over Eastview
4AA Hill-Murray over Stillwater
5AA Maple Grove over Blaine
6AA Edina over Blake
7AA Andover over North Wright
8AA Roseau over Brainerd/Little Falls

Seedings at State Tournament:
1 Edina
2 Andover
3 Eden Prairie
4 Maple Grove
5 Hill-Murray
Apple Valley
Lakeville South
Roseau

slowD
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Re: Section predictions

Post by slowD » Sun Feb 02, 2020 2:59 pm

Looking at the 1A teams who will make up the state tourney field...

MNHockeyFan
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Joined: Tue Nov 07, 2006 10:28 pm

Re: Section predictions

Post by MNHockeyFan » Sun Feb 02, 2020 3:57 pm

slowD wrote:
Sun Feb 02, 2020 2:59 pm
Looking at the 1A teams who will make up the state tourney field...
Class A Section winners - per QRF
1A Rochester Lourdes
2A Mound Westonka
3A Luverne
4A South St. Paul
5A Breck
6A Willmar
7A Cloquet-Esko-Carlton
8A Warroad

Unseeded teams: Rochester Lourdes, Luverne & Willmar

State Tournament Matchups - per QRF
(https://legacy.mshsl.org/brackets/brack ... cketId=231)

2/19/20 - 11:00 AM
#2 Warroad vs. Unseeded

2/19/20 - 1:00 PM
#3 Cloquet-Esko-Carlton vs. Unseeded

2/19/20 – 6:00 PM
#1 Breck vs. Unseeded

2/19/20 – 8:00 PM
#5 Mound Westonka vs. #4 South St. Paul


Class A Section winners - per KRACH
1A Rochester Lourdes
2A Mound Westonka
3A Luverne
4A South St. Paul
5A Breck
6A Willmar
7A Proctor/Hermantown
8A Warroad

Unseeded teams: Mound Westonka, Luverne & Willmar

State Tournament Matchups - per KRACH
(https://legacy.mshsl.org/brackets/brack ... cketId=231)

2/19/20 - 11:00 AM
#2 Proctor/Hermantown vs. Unseeded

2/19/20 - 1:00 PM
#3 Warroad vs. Unseeded

2/19/20 – 6:00 PM
#1 Breck vs. Unseeded

2/19/20 – 8:00 PM
#5 Rochester Lourdes vs. #4 South St. Paul

REMEMBER: As always, the games are decided on the ice, and there will be upsets!

Good luck to all the teams!

knights14
Posts: 46
Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:21 pm

Re: Section predictions

Post by knights14 » Sun Feb 02, 2020 4:54 pm

=D> Good luck everyone
Last edited by knights14 on Sun Feb 09, 2020 11:04 am, edited 2 times in total.

jg2112
Posts: 915
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2013 8:36 am

Re: Section predictions

Post by jg2112 » Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:11 am

knights14 wrote:
Sun Feb 02, 2020 4:54 pm
Section 1 is terrible it's like a JV team section. Farmington is ok at best and Lakeville South padded there non conference schedule with a bunch of cream puffs. How is it that you have 2 south suburban team in section 1AA and 6 south suburban teams in section 3AA. Hello earth to MSHSL same could be said for section 6AA what a joke.
Section 1 is further depleted. The Hockey Hub article on Farmington states their sophomore Gopher commit is out now due to hip surgery.

This is right below another article about the East Ridge goalie who recovered from ... hip surgery.
Last edited by jg2112 on Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:42 am, edited 1 time in total.

goaliedad31
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Re: Section predictions

Post by goaliedad31 » Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:27 am

would have liked to see the section seedings done by the Krach ratings.

Eagles93
Posts: 483
Joined: Sat Jan 03, 2004 5:04 pm

Re: Section predictions

Post by Eagles93 » Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:30 pm

goaliedad31 wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:27 am
would have liked to see the section seedings done by the Krach ratings.
I agree, but I also don't think there were too many egregious errors in the seeds. Most of the teams that got a higher seed than another team despite a slightly lower KRACH rating can be explained away by head-to-head results.

The few head-scratchers I notice:

1A:

Code: Select all

Rank  Seed [---------Team------------] State     League Sec         Class      KRACH_Rating              SOS         WL_Ratio    (WW-LL-TT)
  90  4                        RedWing    MN      MNHSL   1             A            0.0422             0.06             0.73    ( 9-12- 1)
  95  5                      AlbertLea    MN      MNHSL   1             A            0.0339             0.04             0.81    (11-13- 0)
  99  3                         Austin    MN      MNHSL   1             A            0.0252             0.03             0.87    (11-12- 0)
Austin jumps ahead of Red Wing and Albert Lea. Austin split with Red Wing, and got pounded by Albert Lea 10-2 in their 1 meeting. Otherwise might not seem like a big deal as these 3 are very even in KRACH, but now Red Wing and Albert Lea meet while Austin basically gets a bye against Waseca.

7A:

Code: Select all

Rank  Seed [---------Team------------] State     League Sec         Class      KRACH_Rating              SOS         WL_Ratio    (WW-LL-TT)
  22  2             Proctor/Hermantown    MN      MNHSL   7             A            285.87           148.08             1.93    (15- 8- 0)
  28  1           Cloquet-Esko-Carlton    MN      MNHSL   7             A            164.95            25.76             6.40    (20- 3- 0)
Split H2H, KRACH clearly says Proctor/Hermantown should have got the #1.

5AA:

Code: Select all

Rank  Seed [---------Team------------] State     League Sec         Class      KRACH_Rating              SOS         WL_Ratio    (WW-LL-TT)
  25  5                     Centennial    MN      MNHSL   5            AA            176.24           182.42             0.97    (11-12- 1)
  27  3        ChamplinPark/CoonRapids    MN      MNHSL   5            AA            169.63           108.14             1.57    (14- 9- 1)
  30  4                         Rogers    MN      MNHSL   5            AA            108.58            69.52             1.56    (13- 8- 3)
Centennial went 1-0-1 against Rogers, much higher KRACH rating and much harder SOS. (CP/CR did sweep Centennial so CP/CR at 3 is at least understandable.)

7AA:

Code: Select all

Rank  Seed [---------Team------------] State     League Sec         Class      KRACH_Rating              SOS         WL_Ratio    (WW-LL-TT)
  10  3              NorthWrightCounty    MN      MNHSL   7            AA           1395.66           730.08             1.91    (15- 8- 1)
  19  2                     ForestLake    MN      MNHSL   7            AA            328.14           101.96             3.22    (19- 6- 0)
These two didn't play. KRACH has NWC as a fairly heavy favorite.

8AA:
No seedings posted yet.

Eagles93
Posts: 483
Joined: Sat Jan 03, 2004 5:04 pm

Re: Section predictions

Post by Eagles93 » Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:45 am

8AA is now posted:

Code: Select all

Rank  Seed [---------Team------------] State     League Sec         Class      KRACH_Rating              SOS         WL_Ratio    (WW-LL-TT)
  34  5                        Buffalo    MN      MNHSL   8            AA             72.23            88.18             0.82    (10-13- 2)
  47  3                     Alexandria    MN      MNHSL   8            AA             15.43             6.74             2.29    (16- 6- 3)
  62  6                       St.Cloud    MN      MNHSL   8            AA            0.6434             0.50             1.28    (13-10- 0)
  64  4             Sartell/SaukRapids    MN      MNHSL   8            AA            0.5595             0.48             1.17    (12-10- 1)
  79  8                        Bemidji    MN      MNHSL   8            AA            0.1042             0.15             0.70    (10-14- 0)
  83  7                       Moorhead    MN      MNHSL   8            AA            0.0915             0.18             0.51    ( 7-14- 1)
This one's a hot mess compared to the KRACH rankings. At least they got the #1 and 2 correct.

BSUBeaver
Posts: 945
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Contact:

Re: Section predictions

Post by BSUBeaver » Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:54 am

Eagles93 wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:45 am
8AA is now posted:

Code: Select all

Rank  Seed [---------Team------------] State     League Sec         Class      KRACH_Rating              SOS         WL_Ratio    (WW-LL-TT)
  34  5                        Buffalo    MN      MNHSL   8            AA             72.23            88.18             0.82    (10-13- 2)
  47  3                     Alexandria    MN      MNHSL   8            AA             15.43             6.74             2.29    (16- 6- 3)
  62  6                       St.Cloud    MN      MNHSL   8            AA            0.6434             0.50             1.28    (13-10- 0)
  64  4             Sartell/SaukRapids    MN      MNHSL   8            AA            0.5595             0.48             1.17    (12-10- 1)
  79  8                        Bemidji    MN      MNHSL   8            AA            0.1042             0.15             0.70    (10-14- 0)
  83  7                       Moorhead    MN      MNHSL   8            AA            0.0915             0.18             0.51    ( 7-14- 1)
This one's a hot mess compared to the KRACH rankings. At least they got the #1 and 2 correct.
It even deviated from the QRF:

No. 13 (1) 1 Roseau (121.1) 8-1-0 18-5-2
No. 19 (2) 2 Brainerd/Little Falls (113.8) 7-3-0 15-9-1
No. 22 (3) 3 Alexandria (104.7) 5-2-0 16-6-3
No. 29 (5) 4 Sartell/Sauk Rapids (92.7) 5-5-1 14-10-1
No. 35 (6) 5 Buffalo/Maple Lake (86.0) 2-1-2 10-13-2
No. 28 (4) 6 St. Cloud (93.1) 3-7-0 15-10-0
No. 49 (8) 7 Moorhead (58.9) 1-7-1 8-16-1
No. 47 (7) 8 Bemidji (60.4) 1-6-0 10-15-0

Lace'emUp
Posts: 359
Joined: Mon Oct 03, 2011 10:37 am

Re: Section predictions

Post by Lace'emUp » Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:36 am

Eagles93 wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:30 pm
5AA:

Code: Select all

Rank  Seed [---------Team------------] State     League Sec         Class      KRACH_Rating              SOS         WL_Ratio    (WW-LL-TT)
  25  5                     Centennial    MN      MNHSL   5            AA            176.24           182.42             0.97    (11-12- 1)
  27  3        ChamplinPark/CoonRapids    MN      MNHSL   5            AA            169.63           108.14             1.57    (14- 9- 1)
  30  4                         Rogers    MN      MNHSL   5            AA            108.58            69.52             1.56    (13- 8- 3)
Centennial went 1-0-1 against Rogers, much higher KRACH rating and much harder SOS. (CP/CR did sweep Centennial so CP/CR at 3 is at least understandable.)
CP/CR dominated Cent in their first game, and was the better of the two in the 2nd match-up. Rogers was the better of the two teams for the first 45-46 min of their first match-up with Cent (their OT loss), and also just recently tied CP/CR. Both have better QRF's than Cent, which is what the coach's traditionally look at for their seeding votes. Thus, I'm not surprised with the seedings. But it also comes down to the eyeball test. If you've watched these teams play, you'd probably agree with the seedings.

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