2021-22 MN Girls HS Computerized Rankings

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LSQRANK
Posts: 415
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm

2021-22 MN Girls HS Computerized Rankings

Post by LSQRANK » Tue Nov 16, 2021 2:55 pm

Hi all,

I'll be attempting to keep a steady stream of computerized rankings flowing for both the Boys & Girls side of things this season. As in past years, the overall ranking/rating profiles will include North Dakota & Wisconsin Teams because of their interlocking schedules, which is fine because these additional games create a stronger mathematical network. There are two distinct algorithms that I will use in the Sportsoft package to compute the ratings profiles: (1) Least-Squares (LSQRank) and, (2) KRACH is based upon Bradley-Terry rankings, which is a probabilistic model for pairwise comparison. There are pros and cons to both methods. The pros when using a least-squares method is that (a) the results of the rating profile is easier to interpret for the average fan, (b) a numerical value for the uncertainty (standard error/deviation) is easily generated and reported, (c) individual and groups of games can be weighted differently, and (d) a reasonable estimate of a score differential can be predicted for future (unplayed) games based upon an earlier rating profile. The cons when using a least-squares method is that one does need actual game scores to process, which sometimes could introduce misleading data when the raw scores are not adjusted for game-time attributes such as power-play goals, empty-net goals, reduction in game length due to running time rules, etc. The pros when using the KRACH method are that one doe not need precise game scores, but only which team won, lost, or tied. The cons are that the KRACH rating profile is much harder to interpret since the rating profile numbers indicate a ratio with respect to expected outcomes (ie. if Team A were to play Team B a certain number of times, then Team A would win X games out of N). Also, there is not any good way to generate a numerical estimate of the uncertainty value in the KRACH profile. Both methods have a connectivity requirement, that is to say, that each team must be interconnected (indirectly) into the greater network by means of games played outside of their local conference or micro-network. This property allows us to generate a meaningful profile that includes all three states (MN, ND & WI) in the same rating profile.

As with all computerized numerical methods, the rating profiles become more precise as the hockey season advances toward the February playoffs and state tournaments. The first rating profile will not be able to be produced until state-wide connectivity is achieved, which is usually met by the time each team has played a minimum of 4 or 5 games each. The initial rating profiles will change incrementally week by week until each team has played 13 or so games. Towards the end of the season, game score differentials become much more predictable.

-enjoy the season, Doc

LSQRANK
Posts: 415
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm

Re: 2021-22 MN Girls HS Computerized Rankings

Post by LSQRANK » Wed Nov 17, 2021 12:54 am

Need someone to double-check me on the list of teams for the Mn Girls.
I got 115 teams this year in the 16 sections combined, Is that correct?

Also , where does Fergus Falls land? in 8A or 8AA ?

Code: Select all

                       AlbertLea     HS    MN    1   A      MSHSL
                          Austin     HS    MN    1   A      MSHSL
                       Faribault     HS    MN    1   A      MSHSL
                          Waseca     HS    MN    1   A      MSHSL
                          Winona     HS    MN    1   A      MSHSL
                      Hutchinson     HS    MN    2   A      MSHSL
        Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato     HS    MN    2   A      MSHSL
                     MankatoEast     HS    MN    2   A      MSHSL
                     MankatoWest     HS    MN    2   A      MSHSL
                  MinnesotaRiver     HS    MN    2   A      MSHSL
                         Waconia     HS    MN    2   A      MSHSL                                             
                        Fairmont     HS    MN    3   A      MSHSL
                         Luverne     HS    MN    3   A      MSHSL
                        Marshall     HS    MN    3   A      MSHSL
                          NewUlm     HS    MN    3   A      MSHSL
                          Windom     HS    MN    3   A      MSHSL
                     Worthington     HS    MN    3   A      MSHSL
                    ChisagoLakes     HS    MN    4   A      MSHSL
                         RedWing     HS    MN    4   A      MSHSL
                          Simley     HS    MN    4   A      MSHSL
                     SouthStPaul     HS    MN    4   A      MSHSL
               TwoRivers/St.Paul     HS    MN    4   A      MSHSL
                      Visitation     HS    MN    4   A      MSHSL
                      HolyAngels     HS    MN    5   A      MSHSL
                           Breck     HS    MN    5   A      MSHSL
                 Delano/Rockford     HS    MN    5   A      MSHSL
                     Minneapolis     HS    MN    5   A      MSHSL
                   MoundWestonka     HS    MN    5   A      MSHSL
                           Orono     HS    MN    5   A      MSHSL                                                  
                    PineCityArea     HS    MN    5   A      MSHSL
           Breckenridge/Wahpeton     HS    MN    6   A      MSHSL                                                  
               Morris/BensonArea     HS    MN    6   A      MSHSL
                   PrairieCentre     HS    MN    6   A      MSHSL
                   NorthernLakes     HS    MN    6   A      MSHSL
                      RiverLakes     HS    MN    6   A      MSHSL
                          Wilmar     HS    MN    6   A      MSHSL
            Cloquet-Esko-Carlton     HS    MN    7   A      MSHSL
                       RockRidge     HS    MN    7   A      MSHSL
                Hibbing/Chisholm     HS    MN    7   A      MSHSL
                  DuluthMarshall     HS    MN    7   A      MSHSL
                   MooseLakeArea     HS    MN    7   A      MSHSL
              Proctor/Hermantown     HS    MN    7   A      MSHSL
                      NorthShore     HS    MN    7   A      MSHSL
                       Crookston     HS    MN    8   A      MSHSL
                    DetroitLakes     HS    MN    8   A      MSHSL
                  EastGrandForks     HS    MN    8   A      MSHSL
                     FergusFalls     HS    MN    8   A      MSHSL
               IternationalFalls     HS    MN    8   A      MSHSL                                                              
                 ThiefRiverFalls     HS    MN    8   A      MSHSL
                         Warroad     HS    MN    8   A      MSHSL
                      Farmington     HS    MN    1   AA     MSHSL
                     DodgeCounty     HS    MN    1   AA     MSHSL                                                
                  LakevilleNorth     HS    MN    1   AA     MSHSL
                  LakevilleSouth     HS    MN    1   AA     MSHSL
                      Northfield     HS    MN    1   AA     MSHSL
                        Owatonna     HS    MN    1   AA     MSHSL
                RochesterCentury     HS    MN    1   AA     MSHSL
                   RochesterMayo     HS    MN    1   AA     MSHSL
            BloomingtonJefferson     HS    MN    2   AA     MSHSL
               Chaska/Chanhassen     HS    MN    2   AA     MSHSL
                     EdenPrairie     HS    MN    2   AA     MSHSL
                      HolyFamily     HS    MN    2   AA     MSHSL
                      Minnetonka     HS    MN    2   AA     MSHSL
                       NewPrague     HS    MN    2   AA     MSHSL
                       PriorLake     HS    MN    2   AA     MSHSL
                        Shakopee     HS    MN    2   AA     MSHSL
                     AppleValley     HS    MN    3   AA     MSHSL
                      Burnsville     HS    MN    3   AA     MSHSL
               Cretin-DerhamHall     HS    MN    3   AA     MSHSL
                           Eagan     HS    MN    3   AA     MSHSL
                        Eastview     HS    MN    3   AA     MSHSL
                        Hastings     HS    MN    3   AA     MSHSL
              ParkofCottageGrove     HS    MN    3   AA     MSHSL
                       Rosemount     HS    MN    3   AA     MSHSL
                       EastRidge     HS    MN    4   AA     MSHSL
                   GentryAcademy     HS    MN    4   AA     MSHSL
                     Hill-Murray     HS    MN    4   AA     MSHSL
                       Mahtomedi     HS    MN    4   AA     MSHSL
             NorthSt.Paul/Tartan     HS    MN    4   AA     MSHSL
                       Roseville     HS    MN    4   AA     MSHSL
                      Stillwater     HS    MN    4   AA     MSHSL
                   WhiteBearLake     HS    MN    4   AA     MSHSL
                        Woodbury     HS    MN    4   AA     MSHSL
       Centennial/SpringLakePark     HS    MN    5   AA     MSHSL
         ChamplinPark/CoonRapids     HS    MN    5   AA     MSHSL
             Irondale/St.Anthony     HS    MN    5   AA     MSHSL
                      MapleGrove     HS    MN    5   AA     MSHSL
                      Moundsview     HS    MN    5   AA     MSHSL
                Osseo/ParkCenter     HS    MN    5   AA     MSHSL
                          Rogers     HS    MN    5   AA     MSHSL
               NorthWrightCounty     HS    MN    5   AA     MSHSL
           Benilde-St.Margaret's     HS    MN    6   AA     MSHSL
                           Blake     HS    MN    6   AA     MSHSL
                           Edina     HS    MN    6   AA     MSHSL
                    Hopkins/Park     HS    MN    6   AA     MSHSL
                 MinnehahaUnited     HS    MN    6   AA     MSHSL
                Armstrong/Cooper     HS    MN    6   AA     MSHSL
                         Wayzata     HS    MN    6   AA     MSHSL
                         Andover     HS    MN    7   AA     MSHSL
                           Anoka     HS    MN    7   AA     MSHSL
                          Blaine     HS    MN    7   AA     MSHSL
                          Duluth     HS    MN    7   AA     MSHSL
              ElkRiver/Zimmerman     HS    MN    7   AA     MSHSL
                      ForestLake     HS    MN    7   AA     MSHSL
            GrandRapids-Greenway     HS    MN    7   AA     MSHSL
                       Princeton     HS    MN    7   AA     MSHSL
                    NorthernTier     HS    MN    7   AA     MSHSL
                      Alexandria     HS    MN    x   AA     MSHSL
                         Bemidji     HS    MN    x   AA     MSHSL
            Brainerd/LittleFalls     HS    MN    x   AA     MSHSL
                         Buffalo     HS    MN    x   AA     MSHSL
                        Moorhead     HS    MN    x   AA     MSHSL
                          Roseau     HS    MN    x   AA     MSHSL
              Sartell/SaukRapids     HS    MN    x   AA     MSHSL
                        St.Cloud     HS    MN    x   AA     MSHSL


BSUBeaver
Posts: 945
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2010 3:24 pm
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Re: 2021-22 MN Girls HS Computerized Rankings

Post by BSUBeaver » Wed Nov 17, 2021 8:32 am

LSQRANK wrote:
Wed Nov 17, 2021 12:54 am

Also , where does Fergus Falls land? in 8A or 8AA ?
Fergus Falls is 6A

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