Scoring by top seniors

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j4241
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Scoring by top seniors

Post by j4241 » Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:23 am

I wanted to share some analysis of offensive output by some of the top seniors this year. I’m starting with the kids nominated for YHH - and added others with high point totals and/or that are recognized as top seniors.

My goal in this stemmed from how much focus there is on points in discussing girls hockey, and how hard it is to compare kids’ seasons because of different strength of schedule. How does a 2ppg season by Matthews (against the #3 schedule) compare to a 2.7ppg season by Enright (#31 schedule) or a 3 ppg season by Ryskamp (#42 schedule)? How impressive is Jungels offensive output (#2 schedule) as a D?

Not any clear answers, but I wanted to find some way to normalize, so I thought I’d break down scoring by grouping opponents into three tiers: top 10 teams, 11 to 20 teams, and teams outside the top 20, and I broke out the scoring of each of these kids accordingly. Here is the result (looking at regular season points only):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Jungels will win Ms. Hockey, and Tony probably picks Enright for YHH player of the year just to be different, but I think this is an interesting way to try to normalize who produced against good teams.

If anyone finds this interesting (and even if you don't!), I might do something similar for the top end of the '23 and '24 class, too. The goal is to separate real output from reputation and college commitments - those don't always line up.

j4241
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Re: Scoring by top seniors

Post by j4241 » Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:25 am

I might miss a top 10 Ms. Hockey finalist (Ramirez? Roeske?), but will add them if I did when the list comes out.

Eagles93
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Re: Scoring by top seniors

Post by Eagles93 » Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:41 am

The list just came out:

Allie Franco
Claire Enright
Dani Burgen
Emma Peschel
Whitney Tuttle
Madison Kaiser
Iyla Ryskamp
Sloane Matthews
Vivian Jungels
Maddy Christian

Gotta think Jungels is the heavy favorite.

moosepaw
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Re: Scoring by top seniors

Post by moosepaw » Sat Feb 12, 2022 6:03 am

Looking over the players, I’m not sure if I’m reading it correct.

Jungel, Kaiser, Mathew’s and Tuttle all show that they score consistently against all levels of competition.


Ryskamp for how good they are they not only not play a top 10 team but not even a top 20 team. So they don’t play any of the top 20% in the state!


I just looked at Enright schedule and the same can be said for them. hardly plays a top 20 team.


I wonder if this will show in playoffs, if I do think we will see early exits by LS and Orono. You don’t win championships playing soft schedule only individual recognition.

Jungels and of course my HF Fire Kaiser will show up in the playoffs because they have proven they can produce in tough competition.

I think Orono will lose to P/H because of the poor schedule. LS will lose first game at state if they even make it.

j4241
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Re: Scoring by top seniors

Post by j4241 » Sat Feb 12, 2022 8:28 am

Don't over interpret - some of the subcategories are very small sample sizes. But with respect to points you made - Orono played two top 10 teams (Benilde and Gentry) and Ryskamp had no points in those games. They played two 11-20 teams (Procter and NWC) and she had 3 and 2 against Proctor and 1 and 1 against NWC, for 4 and 3 in two games.

LVS played none against top 10 (so 0 points for Enright), and two games against Burnsville (in the 11-20 group), in which she totaled 2 goals.

There's more to hockey than points, but since points get so much emphasis, I thought it worthwhile to point out that it's more complicated than just looking at the total. This data does show some interesting things, in my opinion:

- Jungels production against top teams - as a D! - is outstanding compared to anybody. In fact, I am pretty sure she tied for the state lead in scoring against top 10 teams (with Boerger from Andover), and her 17 points in those 10 games were almost double the next highest on Edina (Halverson at 9), so she was clearly driving the bus (Boerger's 17 points in their 10 games is also awesome, but it was with more support from her linemates, who had 16 and 14).

- Matthews had far fewer points than Enright, but she scored more against top 10 teams than Enright, more against 11-20 teams than Enright, and more against 21-114, yet Enright scored more in total simply because more of her schedule was against the weakest group.

- Franco's stats look comparable to Peschel's, but given my understanding is she iced far more minutes as a forward than a D this year, they look modest compared to the rest of this group, other than Christian. But Christian's point total was more than 50% higher than the next highest scorer - she was the driver of Elk River. By comparison, Franco is the only one on the list not to lead her team in scoring (or in Peschel's case, within one of the team lead). She is objectively a very good player - not trying to slam her - and her value might be better reflected in areas other than offensive production, including defense and the versatility to play both positions.

- Tuttle, Kaiser and Burgen all had offensive seasons as good as anyone, though Kaiser's stands out a bit given, like Christian, she was more than 50% ahead of Holy Family's next leading scorer.

Sparlimb
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Re: Scoring by top seniors

Post by Sparlimb » Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:10 pm

To be fair, scoring is only one component of being Ms. Hockey. Otherwise a defensemen wouldn't ever win. So there is more than stats to look at.

j4241
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Re: Scoring by top seniors

Post by j4241 » Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:55 pm

True! My message would be - look at the complete player, but if you look at stats, look past the simple totals.

jg2112
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Re: Scoring by top seniors

Post by jg2112 » Sat Feb 12, 2022 5:05 pm

Sparlimb wrote:
Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:10 pm
To be fair, scoring is only one component of being Ms. Hockey. Otherwise a defensemen wouldn't ever win. So there is more than stats to look at.
This is true. Having a good agent is also important.

j4241
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Re: Scoring by top seniors

Post by j4241 » Sun Feb 13, 2022 8:42 pm

Part of the goal is to counteract the super-agent dads who elevate reputation beyond skill, or early college commitments that create an impression of "top of the heap" that isn't backed up on the ice. Points aren't perfect, but they're objective.

jg2112
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Re: Scoring by top seniors

Post by jg2112 » Mon Feb 14, 2022 8:49 am

j4241 wrote:
Sun Feb 13, 2022 8:42 pm
Part of the goal is to counteract the super-agent dads who elevate reputation beyond skill, or early college commitments that create an impression of "top of the heap" that isn't backed up on the ice. Points aren't perfect, but they're objective.
It's a noble effort. I think you've identified all the Ms. Hockey candidates for next year, save any Shattuck or out-of-state move-ins that take the MSHSL by storm.

And I would argue points are not totally objective. You aren't accounting for programs like Warroad, where almost every single goal is padded by 2 assists, no matter the circumstance. That's why either Hendrickson or Johnson will make the Ms. Hockey top 10 next year.

With regard to "super-agent dads," let's be clear. I'm talking about actual agents.

j4241
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Re: Scoring by top seniors

Post by j4241 » Mon Feb 14, 2022 10:53 am

I hope I covered enough to ensure that was the case! (but realize I may have missed someone)

Warroad is pretty brutal in stat padding - and you're right more generally stats aren't objective. Even when they are scrutinized and accurate, they can still mislead. Having stronger teammates surrounding you can mean pedestrian plays get rewarded with assists when a teammate makes a great play. There are some heralded forwards on very strong teams this year that play with talented and productive linemates and offensive defense - yet are not at the top of these lists (the Tonka forward group - both sophomores and juniors, in particular). That was a surprising conclusion for me in looking at all of this. By contrast, Matthews plays a combination of one of the strongest schedules and with a relatively weak supporting cast compared to the other top 10 semifinalists, and still produced as well as anyone.

Regarding Warroad, their forwards point totals are at least as much a function of the barbell schedule - some top teams, and then some very, very weak teams in which they are encouraged to run up the score - I think that's more a factor than phantom assists. (That's also an observation one might make about other teams, like Gentry). And yet Johnson and Hendrickson have produced against very good teams (as have Sajevic and the Gazdik's).

I don't think Shattuck has anyone in the junior class that would come in around the top of this list. Lalonde would be a possibility, but she wasn't one of the best three or four players on the ice when I saw the prep team play MN teams last fall. She would probably contend for a top 10 spot, but not to win. The real strength of the Shattuck program right now is in the freshman and sophomore classes. And an out of state transfer is a possibility, though it's a short list of kids who would contend for the top of that list.

In terms of a '23 winner, there has only been one Ms. Hockey winner in the last 10 years who was not on the U18 team (Mobley), which would sugget Lindsay or Gazdik (who are both fantastic hockey players) are the only contenders. At the same time, there has not been a single winner at forward who wasn't over a goal per game their junior year and 2 points per game, or a D winner who wasn't the runaway scoring leader among their team's D - neither Lindsay nor Gazdik meet that test. Jungels deservedly runs away with it this year. One of those two may run away with it next, but neither has earned it yet, in my opinion.

Seriously, actual agents...?

Iceburg
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Re: Scoring by top seniors

Post by Iceburg » Mon Feb 14, 2022 10:58 am

Thanks for all the hard work. Always a pleasure reading your stuff

j4241
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Re: Scoring by top seniors

Post by j4241 » Mon Feb 14, 2022 11:04 am

That’s nice of you to say - thanks!

girlshockey4ever
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Re: Scoring by top seniors

Post by girlshockey4ever » Mon Feb 14, 2022 11:56 am

Agree, Top notch work. I wonder how this gets selected and who votes for this kind of stuff.

Thoen88
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Re: Scoring by top seniors

Post by Thoen88 » Mon Feb 14, 2022 3:51 pm

This is 100% accurate. After covering MN high school hockey as a writer for 12 years and then watching Dylan and now Emma go through it, my question has always remained the same when it comes to points....especially those kept on the Hub site....don't tell me how many points you have, tell me who you played.

Now some players it doesn't matter, as you stated. Forwards like Sloane, Claire, Dani, etc, will produce regardless who they play with or against. This has shown itself quite a bit the last few years in the Elite League as well, when all of the "top" players are playing with and against each other. You'll have kids with gaudy high school numbers look pedestrian against consistent top competition, and not just in terms of points, but how they look against the rest of the group. It was/is the same way on the boys' side.

And yes, stats can mislead. Just take a look through some boxscores and you'll see top-line, or top-6 forwards collecting points in the 3rd period when their team is already ahead by 8+. Stat-padding is nothing new and will continue as long as score is kept in athletic competitions.
j4241 wrote:
Mon Feb 14, 2022 10:53 am
I hope I covered enough to ensure that was the case! (but realize I may have missed someone)

Warroad is pretty brutal in stat padding - and you're right more generally stats aren't objective. Even when they are scrutinized and accurate, they can still mislead. Having stronger teammates surrounding you can mean pedestrian plays get rewarded with assists when a teammate makes a great play. There are some heralded forwards on very strong teams this year that play with talented and productive linemates and offensive defense - yet are not at the top of these lists (the Tonka forward group - both sophomores and juniors, in particular). That was a surprising conclusion for me in looking at all of this. By contrast, Matthews plays a combination of one of the strongest schedules and with a relatively weak supporting cast compared to the other top 10 semifinalists, and still produced as well as anyone.

Regarding Warroad, their forwards point totals are at least as much a function of the barbell schedule - some top teams, and then some very, very weak teams in which they are encouraged to run up the score - I think that's more a factor than phantom assists. (That's also an observation one might make about other teams, like Gentry). And yet Johnson and Hendrickson have produced against very good teams (as have Sajevic and the Gazdik's).

I don't think Shattuck has anyone in the junior class that would come in around the top of this list. Lalonde would be a possibility, but she wasn't one of the best three or four players on the ice when I saw the prep team play MN teams last fall. She would probably contend for a top 10 spot, but not to win. The real strength of the Shattuck program right now is in the freshman and sophomore classes. And an out of state transfer is a possibility, though it's a short list of kids who would contend for the top of that list.

In terms of a '23 winner, there has only been one Ms. Hockey winner in the last 10 years who was not on the U18 team (Mobley), which would sugget Lindsay or Gazdik (who are both fantastic hockey players) are the only contenders. At the same time, there has not been a single winner at forward who wasn't over a goal per game their junior year and 2 points per game, or a D winner who wasn't the runaway scoring leader among their team's D - neither Lindsay nor Gazdik meet that test. Jungels deservedly runs away with it this year. One of those two may run away with it next, but neither has earned it yet, in my opinion.

Seriously, actual agents...?

Lace'emUp
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Re: Scoring by top seniors

Post by Lace'emUp » Tue Feb 15, 2022 10:51 am

j4241 wrote:
Mon Feb 14, 2022 10:53 am
Regarding Warroad, their forwards point totals are at least as much a function of the barbell schedule - some top teams, and then some very, very weak teams in which they are encouraged to run up the score - I think that's more a factor than phantom assists. (That's also an observation one might make about other teams, like Gentry). And yet Johnson and Hendrickson have produced against very good teams (as have Sajevic and the Gazdik's).
Great job on the numbers. I believe I have agreed with you in the past regarding Warroad and the stat padding. There were a couple really nice players who came out of Warroad over the last 2-4 years. Both now play out east together. Both had huge numbers at the HS level, but neither have never achieved double-digits single season points at the D1 level. Again, nice players, but their team's SOS wasn't all that great (not their fault).

Quickly looking back at the older KRACK SOS topics/threads, Warroad's SOS has been middle of the pack (based on roughly 115-120 teams each year). I only looked at what I found from pre-pandemic 2015/16 through the 2019/20 seasons. Here's Warroad's SOS:
2015/16 = 64
2016/17 = 47
2017/18 = 46
2018/19 = 53
2019/20 = 37
http://www.ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=36829
http://www.ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=37641

j4241
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Re: Scoring by top seniors

Post by j4241 » Tue Feb 15, 2022 11:04 am

That's really helpful - thank you! Certainly seems consistent with what I would have guessed. I think Warroad does a mix - they usually come down to the metro to play good teams, but then also play really weak teams and let their top end kids run up the score.

I looked quickly at 18-19 and 19-20 (Corneliusen and Hendrickson) - Corneliusen (jr) scored 1 and 1 and Hendy (soph) had 0 and 1 in a 4-3 win over 5 ranked Tonka in '18 - I believe their only game against a top 10 team (according to myhockeyrankings). Corn had 5 pts in 2 top 10 games as a senior, and Hendy had 4. So very good performance in small data sets. My takeaway might be that they were among top end players, but so many crappy games against good teams isn't great preparation for D1 hockey. Good for stats, bad for development.

Lace'emUp
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Re: Scoring by top seniors

Post by Lace'emUp » Tue Feb 15, 2022 12:50 pm

j4241 wrote:
Tue Feb 15, 2022 11:04 am
That's really helpful - thank you! Certainly seems consistent with what I would have guessed. I think Warroad does a mix - they usually come down to the metro to play good teams, but then also play really weak teams and let their top end kids run up the score.

I looked quickly at 18-19 and 19-20 (Corneliusen and Hendrickson) - Corneliusen (jr) scored 1 and 1 and Hendy (soph) had 0 and 1 in a 4-3 win over 5 ranked Tonka in '18 - I believe their only game against a top 10 team (according to myhockeyrankings). Corn had 5 pts in 2 top 10 games as a senior, and Hendy had 4. So very good performance in small data sets. My takeaway might be that they were among top end players, but so many crappy games against good teams isn't great preparation for D1 hockey. Good for stats, bad for development.
I think you summed it up perfectly.

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