Girls MN HS play-offs by the numbers

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LSQRANK
Posts: 415
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm

Girls MN HS play-offs by the numbers

Post by LSQRANK » Sun Feb 13, 2022 12:14 am

Code: Select all

Partial Results of MN HS Girls Play-Offs
----------------------------------------
95% MOE = ~ 1.5 goals

As of Saturday Feb 12, 2022 ...  63 play-off games played

4  upset games where lower seed beat higher seed with score differential outside the 95% C.I.   (rate = 1 in 16)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Owatonna         @  Farmington     predicted FARM win by  1 to 3 goals       OWT 3 - 2 FARM   (-2)   ##
AppleValley      @  Eastview       predicted ESTV win by -1 to 2 goals       APV 3 - 0 ESTV   (-2)   ##
ChamplinPark/CR  @  NorthWrightCty predicted NWC  win by  1 to 3 goals      CPCR 1 - 0 NWC    (-2)   ##
Breck            @  MoundWestonka  predicted MWT  win by  3 to 5 goals       BRK 3 - 2 MWT    (-4)   ##

6 games where lower seed beat higher seed but score differential was within the 95% C.I.     (rate = 1 in 10.5)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   
Owatonna     @  Northfield           predicted NFLD win by -1 to 2 goals     OWT 1 - 0 NFL     (0) 
Rosemount    @  Cretin-DerhamHall    predicted CDH  win by -2 to 1 goals     RSM 6 - 4 CDH     (0)
ElkRiver     @  GrandRapids-Greenway predicted GRG  win by -2 to 1 goals     ELK 3 - 1 GRG     (0)  
Waconia      @  Hutchinson           predicted HUT  win by -1 to 2 goals     WAC 4 - 3 HUT     (0)
Fairmont     @  Windom               predicted WND  win by -1 to 2 goals     FMT 2 - 1 WND     (0)
Hibbing      @  MooseLakeArea          *HIB or MLA  win by -2 to 1 goals     HIB 4 - 2 MLA     (0)

53 games where the higher seed beat the lower seed  (rate = 84%  or  [5 out of 6]) 


 Game score Differential      # of Games
-------------------------- | ------------
Less than    C.I. by (-5)  |     0
Less than    C.I. by (-4)  |     2     3%
Less than    C.I. by (-3)  |     2     3%
Less than    C.I. by (-2)  |     9    14%
Less than    C.I. by (-1)  |     9    14%
INSIDE       C.I.    ( 0)  |    28    44%
Greater than C.I. by (+1)  |     6   9.5%
Greater than C.I. by (+2)  |     3     5%
Greater than C.I. by (+3)  |     3     5%
Greater than C.I. by (+4)  |     0
Greater than C.I. by (+5)  |     1   1.5%

It would appear empirically that the calculated  MOE [ +/- 1.5] is too small
Out of 63 games, one might expect to have 1 in 20 games 
to have a game score differential outside the 95% C.I.  
therefore a more realistic MOE of +/- 3.5 
would seem to be a more appropriate value @ the 95% confidence level



LSQRANK
Posts: 415
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm

Re: Girls MN HS play-offs by the numbers

Post by LSQRANK » Sun Feb 13, 2022 12:15 am

More details ...

Code: Select all

1AA  seedings           1st round  numerical predictions                           [95% CI]          Actual Score      DIF
--------------------   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------         
1 Lakeville South       RochesterCentury @  LakevilleSouth  LVS        win by 11 to 13 goals       ROC 0 - 11 LVS      ( 0)
2 Northfield            RochesterMayo    @  Northfield      NFLD       win by  6 to  8 goals      MAYO 0 - 10 NFLD     (+2)
3 Farmington            Owatonna         @  Farmington      FARM       win by  1 to  3 goals       OWT 3  - 2 FARM     (-2)   ##
4 Lakeville North       DodgeCounty      @  LakevilleNorth *LVN or DC  win by        1 goal in OT  DC  3  - 6 LVN      (+2)
5 Dodge County
6 Owatonna              2nd round  numerical predictions                  [95% CI]                  Actual Score                                                
7 Rochester Mayo        ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 Rochester Century     LakevilleNorth   @   LakevilleSouth  LVS  win by  2 to 4 goals            LVN 4 - 6 LVS         (0)
                        Owatonna         @   Northfield      NFLD win by -1 to 2 goals            OWT 1 - 0 NFL         (0)

                        3rd round  numerical predictions                  [95% CI]                  Actual Score              
                        ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
						Owatonna   @   LakevilleSouth
						
						
						
2AA  seedings         1st round  numerical predictions                              [95% CI]     Actual Score     
----------------      ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Minnetonka          NewPrague             @   Minnetonka   MNTK      win by 7 to 9 goals       NPG 1 - 9 MTK          ( 0)
2 Holy Family         PriorLake             @   HolyFamily   HF        win by 5 to 7 goals       PLK 0 - 3 HLF          (-2)
3 Shakopee            BloomingtonJefferson  @   Shakopee     SKP       win by 1 to 3 goals       BLM 1 - 5 SHK          (+1)
4 Eden Prairie        Chaska/Chanhassen     @   EdenPrairie  EP or CC  win by      1 goal in OT  CCH 1 - 2 EP           ( 0)
5 Chaska/Chanhassen
6 Jefferson           2nd round  numerical predictions                [95% CI]                   Actual Score          
7 Prior Lake          ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 New Prague	      EdenPrairie  @  Minnetonka    MNTK      win by  4 to 6 goals
                      Shakopee     @  HolyFamily    HF        win by  3 to 5 goals
					  
					  
3AA  seedings         1st round  numerical predictions                            [95% CI]                Actual Score     
----------------      ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Burnsville          ParkofCottageGrove     @    Burnsville         BSV   win by  4 to 6 goals          PCG 0 - 6 BNV    ( 0)
2 Cretin-Derham Hall  Hastings               @    Cretin-DerhamHall  CDH   win by  3 to 5 goals          HAS 1 - 7 CDH    (+1)
3 Rosemount           Eagan                  @    Rosemount          RSMT  win by  2 to 4 goals          EAG 2 - 4 RMT    ( 0)
4 Eastview            AppleValley            @   *Eastview           ESTV  win by -1 to 2 goals          APV 3 - 0 ESTV   (-2) ##
5 Apple Valley                                   *95% CI = [ -0.3  to  +2.7 ]                    
6 Eagan                                                          
7 Hastings                                       
8 Park Cottage Grove	                                               
                       2nd round  numerical predictions                  [95% CI]                         Actual Score       
                       ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       AppleValley  @  Burnsville         BSV   win by   2 to 4 goals                     APV 1 - 5 BSV   ( 0)     
                       Rosemount    @  Cretin-DerhamHall  CDH   win by  -2 to 1 goals                     RSM 6 - 4 CDH   ( 0)
					   
					   3rd round  numerical predictions                  [95% CI]                         Actual Score          
					   ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
					   Rosemount    @   Burnsville
					  
					  
						
                     4AA Play-In round:  WhiteBearLake wins by   2 to 3 goals over  Mahtomedi    MAHT 3 - 7 WBLK           (+1)
   
4AA  seedings        1st round  numerical predictions                       [95% CI]              Actual Score       
----------------     ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Gentry Academy       WhiteBearLake        @   GentryAcademy  GA   win by  6 to 8  goals         WBL 0 - 9 GA             (+1)
2 Stillwater           NorthSt.Paul/Tartan  @   Stillwater     STW  win by  4 to 6  goals         NSP 0 - 5 STW            ( 0)
3 Hill-Murray          Woodbury             @   Hill-Murray    HM   win by  3 to 6  goals         WDB 1 - 7 HM             ( 0)
4 Roseville            EastRidge            @  *Roseville      RSV  win by  1 to 2  goals in reg  ESR 1 - 3 RSV            ( 0)
5 East Ridge                                               or  ESR  win by  1       goal in OT     
6 Woodbury             *edge to Roseville                                           
7 North/Tartan         *95% CI [ -0.5  to  +2.5 ]                                             
8 White Bear Lake                                                  
9 Mahtomedi            2nd round  numerical predictions                           [95% CI]          Actual Score 
                       --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------     
                       


5AA  seedings           1st round  numerical predictions                          [95% CI]          Actual Score      
----------------        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1   MapleGrove           Irondale/St.Anthony  @   MapleGrove         MG  win by    8 to 10 goals   IDSA 0 - 6 MG           (-2)
2   Rogers               MoundsView           @   Rogers             ROG win by    2 to  5 goals   MSV  0 - 8 ROG          (+3)
3   Centennial           Osseo/ParkCenter     @   Centennial         CSP win by    2 to  4 goals   OPC  0 - 2 CSP          ( 0)
4   NorthWrightCounty    ChamplinPark/CR      @   NorthWrightCounty  NWC win by    1 to  3 goals   CPCR 1 - 0 NWC          (-2) ##
5   ChamplinPark/CR
6   Osseo/ParkCenter     2nd round  numerical predictions                           [95% CI]          Actual Score        
7   MoundsView           -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
8   Irondale/St.Anthony 



6AA  seedings           1st round  numerical predictions                             [95% CI]       Actual Score     
----------------        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Edina                  BYE                   Edina                  Edina  Bye
2 Wayzata                Hopkins/Park      @   Wayzata                WAY    win by   7 to 9 goals  HP 0 - 6 WAY         (-1)
3 Benilde St Margarets   MinnehahaUnited   @   Benilde-St.Margaret's  BSM    win by   5 to 8 goals  MU 1 - 6 BSM         ( 0)
4 Blake                  Armstrong/Cooper  @   Blake                  BLAKE  win by   4 to 6 goals  AC 0 - 5 BLAKE       ( 0)
5 Armstrong/Cooper
6 United                2nd round  numerical predictions                             [95% CI]       Actual Score  
7 Hopkins/Park          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


                          7AA Play-In round: NorthernTier wins by 3 to 5 goals                 PRC  2 - 3 NT            (-2)

7AA  seedings             1st round  numerical predictions                           [95% CI]   Actual Score      
----------------          ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Andover                 NorthernTier @  Andover               AND     win by  11 to 13 goals  NTR  0 - 16 AND         (+3)
2 Grand Rapids/Greenway   Duluth       @  GrandRapids-Greenway  GRG     win by   3 to  5 goals  DTH  2 - 4  GRG         (-1)
3 Elk River               Anoka        @  ElkRiver/Zimmerman    ERZ     win by   2 to  4 goals  ANK  1 - 2  EKR         (-1)
4 Blaine                  ForestLake   @  Blaine                BLAINE  win by   1 to  2 goals  FLAK 2 - 7  BLN         (+3)
5 Forest Lake
6 Anoka
7 Duluth                  2nd round  numerical predictions                             [95% CI]       Actual Score 
8 Northern Tier           ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 Princeton               Blaine             @  Andover               AND win by   4 to 6 goals     BLN 1 - 6 AND        ( 0)
                          ElkRiver/Zimmerman @  GrandRapids-Greenway  GRG win by  -2 to 1 goals     ELK 3 - 1 GRG        ( 0)
						  
						  
8AA  seedings                1st round  numerical predictions                [95% CI]              Actual Score
----------------            --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1   Moorhead                Bemidji            @  Moorhead     MOOR wins by   3 to 6  goals        BMJ 1 - 7 MOOR        ( 0)
2   Alexandria              Buffalo            @  Alexandria   ALEX wins by   2 to 4  goals        BUF 0 - 3 ALEX        ( 0)
3   Brainerd/LittleFalls    Sartell/SaukRapids @  Brainerd     BRND wins by   2 to 5  goals        SSR 1 - 2 BLF         (-1)
4   Roseau                  St.Cloud           @  Roseau      *ROS  wins by [-1 to 2] goals OT     STC 1 - 2 ROS         ( 0)
5   St.Cloud               
6   Sartell/SaukRapids      *ROS & STC tied T 3-3 in their only H2H meeting @ROS
7   Buffalo                
8	Bemidji                 2nd round  numerical predictions                           [95% CI]       Actual Score   
                            --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
							
							
							
							
1A  seedings             1st round  numerical predictions            [95% CI]         Actual Score
----------------         -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Albert Lea             Winona    @    AlbertLea    ABL     wins by  4 to 7 goals    WIN 0 - 6 ABL                     (0)
2 Austin                 Waseca    @    Austin       AUS     wins by  3 to 5 goals    WSC 1 - 5 AUS                     (0)
3 Waseca
4 Winona                 2nd round  numerical predictions                             [95% CI]       Actual Score 
                         ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


							

2A  seedings          1st round  numerical predictions                           [95% CI]         Actual Score   
----------------      ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Mankato East        BYE          @   MankatoEast                 MKE  BYE
2 Litchfield          BYE          @   Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato    LDC  BYE
3 Minnesota River     MankatoWest  @   MinnesotaRiver              MNR  wins by   3 to 6  goals    MKW 1 - 2 MNR       (-2)
4 Hutchinson          Waconia      @   Hutchinson                  HUT  wins by [-1 to 2] goals    WAC 4 - 3 HUT       ( 0)                    
5 Waconia                                                             
6 Mankato West
                      2nd round  numerical predictions                             [95% CI]         Actual Score   
                      ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      Waconia        @  MankatoEast                MKE  wins by    2 to 5 goals    WAC 1 - 5 MKE        (0)
                      MinnesotaRiver @  Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato   LDC  wins by   -1 to 2 goals    MR  1 - 2 LDC        (0)
					  
					  
3A  seedings          1st round  numerical predictions                [95% CI]          Actual Score       
----------------      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 New Ulm             BYE          @  NewUlm     NewUlm      BYE
2 Luverne             BYE          @  Luverne    Luverne     BYE
3 Marshall            Worthington  @  Marshall   Marshall    wins by    4 to 7  goals    WTG 2 - 3 MSH                 (-3)
4 Windom              Fairmont     @  Windom     Windom      wins by   -1 to 2  goals    FMT 2 - 1 WND                 ( 0)                              
5 Fairmont                                          
6 Worthington
                      2nd round  numerical predictions              [95% CI]              Actual Score      
                      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      Fairmont   @   NewUlm               NU wins by 6 to 9 goals      FMT 0 - 5 NU                    (-1)
                      Marshall   @   Luverne             LUV wins by 3 to 6 goals      MSH 1 - 2 LUV                   (-2)

					  
4A  seedings             1st round  numerical predictions                     [95% CI]       Actual Score    
----------------         ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Simley                 BYE         @  Simley               SIM    BYE
2 South Saint Paul       BYE         @  SouthStPaul          SSP    BYE
3 St Paul/Two Rivers     RedWing     @  TwoRivers/St.Paul    TRSP   wins by 7 to 10 goals   RW  1 - 7 TRSP              (-1)
4 Chisago Lakes          Visitation  @  ChisagoLakes         CHL    wins by 3 to  6 goals   VIS 0 - 7 CHL               (+1)
5 Visitation
6 Red Wing
                         2nd round  numerical predictions                      [95% CI]       Actual Score   
                         ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
						 
						 
5A  seedings         1st round  numerical predictions                       [95% CI]            Actual Score
----------------     ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Orono              BYE            @    Orono             ORO    BYE
2 Holy Angels        PineCityArea   @    HolyAngels        HA     wins by    5 to 8 goals     PCA 0 - 4 HA               (-1)
3 Mound/Westonka     Breck          @    MoundWestonka     MWT    wins by    3 to 5 goals     BRK 3 - 2 MWT              (-4)   ##
4 Minneapolis        Delano         @    Minneapolis       MSP    wins by    1 to 3 goals     DEL 0 - 1 MSP              ( 0)
5 Delano
6 Breck              2nd round  numerical predictions                             [95% CI]       Actual Score 
7 Pine City          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


6A  seedings        1st round  numerical predictions                              [95% CI]        Actual Score     
----------------    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Fergus Falls      BYE                @     FergusFalls        FF     BYE
2 River Lakes       BYE                @     RiverLakes         RL     BYE
3 Northern Lakes    Morris/BensonArea  @     NorthernLakes      NL     wins by   8 to 11 goals    MBA 0 - 4 NLK           (-4)
4 Willmar           PrairieCentre      @     Willmar            WIL    wins by   8 to 10 goals    PC  0 - 8 WIL           ( 0)
5 Prairie Centre
6 Morris-Benson     2nd round  numerical predictions                 [95% CI]                     Actual Score 
                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    Willmar        @   FergusFalls  FF wins by    0 to 3 goals
                    NorthernLakes  @   RiverLakes   RL wins by    1 to 3 goals						  
						  
						  
7A  seedings           1st round  numerical predictions                                [95% CI]           Actual Score   
----------------       ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Proctor/Hermantown   BYE               @  Proctor/Hermantown     P/HT        BYE
2 Duluth Marshall      RockRidge         @  DuluthMarshall         DM          wins by  5 to 8 goals       RR 0 - 2 DM     (-3)
3 CEC                  NorthShore        @  Cloquet-Esko-Carlton   CEC         wins by  5 to 7 goals       NS 0 - 4 CEC    (-1)
4 Moose Lake           Hibbing/Chisholm  @  MooseLakeArea         *HIB or MLA  wins by -1 to 2 goals      HIB 4 - 2 MLA    (-1)
5 Hibbing-Chisholm
6 North Shore                                           *95% MOE ~ 1.5 goals      either team may win
7 Eveleth-Gilbert                                       *95% CI  ~ [ -1 ... 2 ]   Interval includes "0"

                       2nd round  numerical predictions                             [95% CI]       Actual Score          
                       --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       Hibbing/Chisholm      @  Proctor/Hermantown   P/HT  wins by   3 to 6 goals   HIB 1 - 2 P/HT        (-2)
                       Cloquet-Esko-Carlton  @  DuluthMarshall       DML   wins by  -1 to 2 goals   CEC 1 - 5 DML         (+2)


8A  seedings           1st round  numerical predictions                          [95% CI]       Actual Score
----------------       ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1   Warroad             BYE          @  Warroad           WARR  BYE
2   Crookston           BYE          @  Crookston         CRK   BYE
3   EastGrandForks      IFalls       @  EastGrandForks    EGF   wins by 10 to 12 goals      IFalls  0 - 17 EGF            (+5)
4   ThiefRiverFalls     DetroitLakes @  ThiefRiverFalls   TRF   wins by  8 to 10 goals      DLK     1 - 12 TRF            (+1)
5   DetroitLakes
6   InternationalFalls
                       2nd round  numerical predictions                       [95% CI]          Actual Score 
                       ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Eagles93
Posts: 483
Joined: Sat Jan 03, 2004 5:04 pm

Re: Girls MN HS play-offs by the numbers

Post by Eagles93 » Sun Feb 13, 2022 12:58 am

Northfield beat Owatonna 4-1

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