Scoring by top sophomores

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j4241
Posts: 533
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2015 2:38 pm

Scoring by top sophomores

Post by j4241 » Mon Feb 14, 2022 10:06 am

As promised:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

None of the sophmores near the 1, 2 and 3 ppg pace against the three categories, but some strong performances against good schedules. Will be interesting to see how this group does with the college process starting June 15th.

Again, if I've omitted any sophomores that I shouldn't have, no slight is intended. Please let me know and I'll throw them in the table.

j4241
Posts: 533
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2015 2:38 pm

Re: Scoring by top sophomores

Post by j4241 » Fri Jun 17, 2022 9:16 am

No one seems to be paying attention to this board, but I thought I'd elevate this as the '24 class is in the thick of recruiting. As a reminder, the original post included a list of "top" (I'm sure I've missed some) '24s and their regular season scoring from last year broken out vs. top 10 ranked teams from last year, the next 10 (11-20) and the rest. Boreen, Halvorsen and St. Martin are the only three to have scored more than 2 goals vs. top 10 teams, which is a surprisingly small number.

(For comparison, in the '23 class, during their sophomore years (shortened by Covid), I believe Morrison, Higuchi, Broz, Sajevic, Lindsay, and Sadura did, and I'm guessing some or all of Boerger, Brown, Goettl, Retrum and O'Hara would have if they'd been allowed to play more top 10 teams during the regular season.)

The '24 class is the first class to have had absolutely zero early recruiting (the '23 class had 8th grade commits from Lindsay, Kleppinger and Corniea). It will be interesting to see how much frenzy there is around the relatively small number of kids who are recognized producers against top high school competition.

D obviously have different criteria than straight scoring, but Lang, Mumm and Humphrey are the few who contributed meaningful offense against top teams.

girlshockey4ever
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Re: Scoring by top sophomores

Post by girlshockey4ever » Sat Jun 18, 2022 9:55 pm

I'm paying attention. Good work here. One thing that is deceiving about numbers, and trust me I'm a numbers guy, is that with some of these teams I'm guessing that these sophomore girls might not be on the first power-play. For example St. Martin, Halvorson and Boreen run the power-plays for their respective teams. In the state tournament, it was interesting to see the three tonka sophomores listed here were not on the power play with Sadura, Lindsay, and the others. That will make a big difference.

I haven't seen any commitments yet, but then again I haven't been looking! Anyone see anything?

j4241
Posts: 533
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2015 2:38 pm

Re: Scoring by top sophomores

Post by j4241 » Sat Jun 18, 2022 11:03 pm

I agree - lots of context that's missing from this. Power play time is a big one (which is why I looked at 5v5 scoring in some of the other stuff I assembled, although not for the '24 class). Lines/roles is also a big factor - Halvorson, St. Martin and Boreen played on top lines - perhaps the Tonka kids a bit less. But if mintues are similar that cuts both ways - you're playing against opponents second lines. The Tonka kids benefited from playing with elite offensive D, which pads their stats with the more frequent easy assist, and the overall team quality provides a tailwind relative to St. Martin, Boreen, Shipley and others. And Halvorson benefited from playing with arguably one of the great offensive D in MN high school hockey history.

Regardless, these are all on their way to being elite high school players. In terms of their potential future value as college players, there are other factors involved in the transition to a heavier more physical game - particularly size, but also team play. Based on size, St. Martin and Boreen might face headwinds, Avar and Distad might be comparatively better in college than they are in high school. Puck-dominant players like Halvorson or Avar may find they need to learn to change their games more at the collegiate level. And some of the differences between them will just be what makes a market - there is probably some variety in how different colleges appreciate these kids different attributes.

But the spreadsheet I made is at least objective and transparent - there is no hidden methodology. Part of my motivation for parsing this data is to try to provide some objectivity around reputation. There is so much evaluative junk (Neutral Zone, Breakdown Medias books), or lightweight evaluation (team selection for Futures/Prospects and, candidly, HP/USA Hockey), or heavily biased evaluation (all-state selections dependent on whether a kid has been on TV in the state tournament, or internet/social media outlets promoting kids that agree to DM or interview, or who play in their pay-to-play tournaments), or evaluation anchored in the past (the best 8th graders don't necessarily make the best seniors - just ask colleges that committed a bunch of 8th graders a few years ago)... But, to your point, this is just a tool - more goes into evaluating player value and potential than this.

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