WEEK 15: Girls HS Hockey Computerized Ratings Feb 20th, 2022

Discussion of Minnesota Girls High School Hockey

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LSQRANK
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Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm

WEEK 15: Girls HS Hockey Computerized Ratings Feb 20th, 2022

Post by LSQRANK » Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:45 pm

Here are the pre-State Tournament ratings according to the Least-square algorithm.

It will be interesting to see what type of state politics are involved in the seeding process of the state tournament brackets for the class "single" A. Win/Loss/tie records really mean very little compared to the strength of schedule. This applies to Burnville in the Class AA brackets, BSV should be one of the bottom 3 seeds that get randomly assigned to play the top 3 seeds.

enjoy, - Doc

Code: Select all

WEEK 15: Feb 20, 2022
Girls HS Hockey Computerized Ratings

*All game score results are weighted equally

Global Snot = 2.447
                                                                                                   MSHSL State
LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx     Tournament Qualifiers
================================================================================================================== 
     1   MN 1000.0000                    Andover  MSHSL   7 AA     27  (27- 0- 0)  0.000   0.0000  Sec 7AA Champ
     2   MN  999.2172                      Edina  MSHSL   6 AA     27  (25- 2- 0)  0.668   0.0745  Sec 6AA Champ
     3   MN  998.9385                 Minnetonka  MSHSL   2 AA     28  (22- 6- 0)  0.651   0.0708  Sec 2AA Champ
     4   MN  997.5083                    Warroad  MSHSL   8  A     27  (23- 3- 1)  0.667   0.0742  Sec 8A  Champ
     5   MN  997.3281                 HolyFamily  MSHSL   2 AA     28  (22- 5- 1)  0.675   0.0761
     6   MN  997.2845      Benilde-St.Margaret's  MSHSL   6 AA     28  (20- 6- 2)  0.668   0.0745
     7   MN  997.2438                    Wayzata  MSHSL   6 AA     27  (17- 9- 1)  0.666   0.0741
     8   MN  996.9853              GentryAcademy  MSHSL   4 AA     28  (22- 6- 0)  0.664   0.0736   Sec 4AA Champ
     9   MN  996.7373                 MapleGrove  MSHSL   5 AA     28  (20- 6- 2)  0.643   0.0690   Sec 5AA Champ
    10   MN  996.6816                      Orono  MSHSL   5  A     27  (24- 3- 0)  0.696   0.0808   Sec 5A  Champ
	
    11   MN  996.4805                Hill-Murray  MSHSL   4 AA     28  (18- 9- 1)  0.662   0.0731
    12   MN  996.4695                     Rogers  MSHSL   5 AA     27  (20- 5- 2)  0.662   0.0732
    13   MN  996.4510             LakevilleSouth  MSHSL   1 AA     28  (25- 3- 0)  0.706   0.0833
    14   MN  996.0000  Centennial/SpringLakePark  MSHSL   5 AA     28  (18- 9- 1)  0.654   0.0715
    15   MN  995.9294                      Blake  MSHSL   6 AA     26  (15-11- 0)  0.676   0.0763
    16   MN  995.8678                 Stillwater  MSHSL   4 AA     27  (14-11- 2)  0.674   0.0759
    17   MN  995.8530                 Burnsville  MSHSL   3 AA     28  (22- 5- 1)  0.707   0.0834   Sec 3AA Champ
    18   MN  995.6288          NorthWrightCounty  MSHSL   5 AA     26  (14-11- 1)  0.685   0.0783
    19   MN  995.5572         Proctor/Hermantown  MSHSL   7  A     27  (18- 7- 2)  0.674   0.0759   Sec 7A  Champ
    20   MN  995.0727         ElkRiver/Zimmerman  MSHSL   7 AA     28  (14-13- 1)  0.643   0.0690
	
    21   MN  994.9738                  Rosemount  MSHSL   3 AA     28  (19- 9- 0)  0.708   0.0838
    22   MN  994.8122                     Blaine  MSHSL   7 AA     27  (12-12- 3)  0.649   0.0703
    23   MN  994.6552          Cretin-DerhamHall  MSHSL   3 AA     27  (17- 8- 2)  0.688   0.0791
    24   MN  994.5914                 HolyAngels  MSHSL   5  A     28  (22- 5- 1)  0.692   0.0800
    25   MN  994.3950       GrandRapids-Greenway  MSHSL   7 AA     27  (18- 9- 0)  0.672   0.0754
    26   MN  994.2182                   Moorhead  MSHSL   8 AA     29  (20- 9- 0)  0.684   0.0780
    27   MN  994.0826                  Roseville  MSHSL   4 AA     27  (16- 9- 2)  0.684   0.0782
    28   MN  993.9692              MoundWestonka  MSHSL   5  A     26  (19- 7- 0)  0.699   0.0816
    29   MN  993.9521    ChamplinPark/CoonRapids  MSHSL   5 AA     27  (14-12- 1)  0.660   0.0728
    30   MN  993.8346                EdenPrairie  MSHSL   2 AA     27  (10-17- 0)  0.683   0.0779
	
    31   MN  993.8071                 Alexandria  MSHSL   8 AA     26  (14-11- 1)  0.704   0.0828
    32   MN  993.7979                   Shakopee  MSHSL   2 AA     27  (11-16- 0)  0.708   0.0838
    33   MN  993.7216                     Simley  MSHSL   4  A     26  (18- 5- 3)  0.704   0.0827
    34   MN  993.6457             LakevilleNorth  MSHSL   1 AA     27  (12-14- 1)  0.718   0.0860
    35   MN  993.6053                   Eastview  MSHSL   3 AA     25  (11-13- 1)  0.728   0.0885
    36   MN  993.5766                 Northfield  MSHSL   1 AA     27  (19- 5- 3)  0.706   0.0832   Sec 1AA Champ
    37   MN  993.5029       Brainerd/LittleFalls  MSHSL   8 AA     28  (17-11- 0)  0.692   0.0800   Sec 8AA Champ
    38   MN  993.2188          Chaska/Chanhassen  MSHSL   2 AA     26  (11-15- 0)  0.703   0.0826
    39   MN  993.1802                 Farmington  MSHSL   1 AA     26  (11-15- 0)  0.720   0.0865
    40   MN  993.0894             DuluthMarshall  MSHSL   7  A     25  (17- 8- 0)  0.709   0.0839
	
    41   MN  993.0360                SouthStPaul  MSHSL   4  A     27  (15-10- 2)  0.693   0.0803    Sec 4A Champ
    42   MN  993.0229                  EastRidge  MSHSL   4 AA     26  (14-11- 1)  0.700   0.0818
    43   MN  993.0160           Osseo/ParkCenter  MSHSL   5 AA     26  (11-15- 0)  0.670   0.0749
    44   MN  993.0073                     Roseau  MSHSL   8 AA     27  (15-10- 2)  0.697   0.0811
    45   ND  992.9119                FargoDavies  NDHSL   0  A     23  (21- 1- 1)  0.910   0.1384
    46   MN  992.7181                 ForestLake  MSHSL   7 AA     26  (13-13- 0)  0.679   0.0771
    47   MN  992.6554                AppleValley  MSHSL   3 AA     27  (11-14- 2)  0.715   0.0853
    48   MN  992.6433                DodgeCounty  MSHSL   1 AA     27  (15-12- 0)  0.694   0.0805
    49   MN  992.4702               ChisagoLakes  MSHSL   4  A     28  (13-14- 1)  0.681   0.0773
    50   MN  992.3822                 MoundsView  MSHSL   5 AA     26  (12-14- 0)  0.691   0.0798
	
    51   MN  992.3227                   St.Cloud  MSHSL   8 AA     26  (14-10- 2)  0.711   0.0843
    52   ND  992.3107           FargoNorth/South  NDHSL   0  A     23  (16- 6- 1)  0.909   0.1381
    53   MN  992.2167                FergusFalls  MSHSL   6  A     27  (19- 6- 2)  0.706   0.0833
    54   MN  992.0255                      Anoka  MSHSL   7 AA     26  ( 7-19- 0)  0.669   0.0748
    55   MN  991.9737                      Eagan  MSHSL   3 AA     26  ( 5-20- 1)  0.720   0.0866
    56   MN  991.9495                Minneapolis  MSHSL   5  A     26  ( 8-17- 1)  0.704   0.0828
    57   MN  991.8755                  PriorLake  MSHSL   2 AA     26  ( 6-19- 1)  0.718   0.0861
    58   MN  991.8174       Cloquet-Esko-Carlton  MSHSL   7  A     27  (19- 7- 1)  0.695   0.0806
    59   MN  991.7741                    Luverne  MSHSL   3  A     25  (22- 3- 0)  0.754   0.0950   Sec 3A Champ
    60   MN  991.7680                   Woodbury  MSHSL   4 AA     26  (14-12- 0)  0.698   0.0813
	
    61   MN  991.7422                   Owatonna  MSHSL   1 AA     27  (16- 9- 2)  0.706   0.0833
    62   MN  991.6738       BloomingtonJefferson  MSHSL   2 AA     26  (12-14- 0)  0.703   0.0824
    63   MN  991.5353                     NewUlm  MSHSL   3  A     27  (23- 4- 0)  0.730   0.0891
    64   WI  991.5288                    BayArea   WIAA   2  A     24  (21- 2- 1)  0.860   0.1234
    65   MN  991.5086                 RiverLakes  MSHSL   6  A     28  (16-12- 0)  0.702   0.0822    Sec 6A Champ
    66   MN  991.3300              MooseLakeArea  MSHSL   7  A     26  (18- 7- 1)  0.709   0.0840
    67   WI  991.2482             FoxCitiesStars   WIAA   2  A     24  (20- 3- 1)  0.859   0.1232
    68   MN  991.1004           Hibbing/Chisholm  MSHSL   7  A     27  (12-13- 2)  0.697   0.0812
    69   MN  991.0906           Armstrong/Cooper  MSHSL   6 AA     26  (11-14- 1)  0.671   0.0752
    70   MN  991.0548        NorthSt.Paul/Tartan  MSHSL   4 AA     26  (15-11- 0)  0.707   0.0835
	
    71   MN  991.0500          TwoRivers/St.Paul  MSHSL   4  A     27  (14-12- 1)  0.696   0.0809
    72   MN  990.9450                    Buffalo  MSHSL   8 AA     26  ( 5-19- 2)  0.691   0.0797
    73   MN  990.9265            MinnehahaUnited  MSHSL   6 AA     26  (18- 8- 0)  0.708   0.0837
    74   MN  990.8679                  NewPrague  MSHSL   2 AA     26  (10-13- 3)  0.707   0.0835
    75   MN  990.5342                      Breck  MSHSL   5  A     24  ( 3-20- 1)  0.708   0.0837
    76   MN  990.5048            Delano/Rockford  MSHSL   5  A     27  (14-12- 1)  0.694   0.0805
    77   WI  990.4422           CentralWisconsin   WIAA   1  A     23  (20- 3- 0)  0.853   0.1214
    78   MN  990.3799                    Willmar  MSHSL   6  A     27  (14-13- 0)  0.715   0.0854
    79   MN  990.3289                  Crookston  MSHSL   8  A     26  (15- 9- 2)  0.721   0.0869
    80   MN  990.3115                     Duluth  MSHSL   7 AA     25  ( 6-19- 0)  0.702   0.0822
	
    81   ND  990.2973                   Bismarck  NDHSL   0  A     23  (13- 5- 5)  0.906   0.1371
    82   ND  990.2461                      Minot  NDHSL   0  A     22  (13- 9- 0)  0.926   0.1432
    83   MN  990.2349                MankatoEast  MSHSL   2  A     26  (21- 5- 0)  0.729   0.0887   Sec 2A Champ
    84   MN  990.1628              WhiteBearLake  MSHSL   4 AA     27  ( 6-20- 1)  0.685   0.0783
    85   MN  990.1305                   Hastings  MSHSL   3 AA     26  ( 8-17- 1)  0.702   0.0824
    86   MN  990.0878         ParkofCottageGrove  MSHSL   3 AA     26  ( 8-18- 0)  0.702   0.0824
    87   WI  989.9652           WesternWisconsin   WIAA   1  A     25  (18- 7- 0)  0.786   0.1032
    88   MN  989.9468         Sartell/SaukRapids  MSHSL   8 AA     26  ( 6-18- 2)  0.710   0.0842
    89   ND  989.7355            WestFargoUnited  NDHSL   0  A     23  (14- 6- 3)  0.914   0.1394
    90   WI  989.6834                  MetroLynx   WIAA   2  A     23  (20- 3- 0)  0.891   0.1326
	
    91   ND  989.6309                     Mandan  NDHSL   0  A     21  (12- 8- 1)  0.962   0.1546
    92   MN  989.5762               Hopkins/Park  MSHSL   6 AA     26  ( 7-19- 0)  0.690   0.0795
    93   MN  989.5387                    Bemidji  MSHSL   8 AA     26  ( 4-20- 2)  0.703   0.0826
    94   MN  989.0921             EastGrandForks  MSHSL   8  A     22  ( 7-14- 1)  0.767   0.0982
    95   MN  988.9876              NorthernLakes  MSHSL   6  A     27  (15-11- 1)  0.711   0.0843
    96   WI  988.9042                   Onalaska   WIAA   2  A     25  (21- 4- 0)  0.832   0.1156
    97   WI  988.8228               HaywardCo-Op   WIAA   1  A     25  (16- 9- 0)  0.812   0.1102
    98   WI  988.6989                   Warbirds   WIAA   2  A     24  (15- 8- 1)  0.864   0.1247
    99   WI  988.6715             St.CroixValley   WIAA   1  A     24  (14-10- 0)  0.809   0.1094
   100   WI  988.3759                     Hudson   WIAA   1  A     24  (11-13- 0)  0.765   0.0977
   
   101   MN  988.3290            ThiefRiverFalls  MSHSL   8  A     25  ( 6-17- 2)  0.723   0.0873
   102   MN  988.2350               PineCityArea  MSHSL   5  A     25  ( 9-15- 1)  0.713   0.0850
   103   MN  988.2261            MNIceCougars19U   NGHL   0 T1      5  ( 5- 0- 0)  1.818   0.5517
   104   ND  988.1660                 GrandForks  NDHSL   0  A     23  ( 8-14- 1)  0.916   0.1402
   105   ND  988.0552                  Jamestown  NDHSL   0  A     23  (11- 9- 3)  0.954   0.1519
   106   MN  988.0509   Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato  MSHSL   2  A     27  (12-14- 1)  0.712   0.0847
   107   MN  988.0105                 Visitation  MSHSL   4  A     26  (12-13- 1)  0.709   0.0839
   108   WI  987.9439                  CFMSabers   WIAA   1  A     24  (12-12- 0)  0.821   0.1125
   109   MN  987.9214        Irondale/St.Anthony  MSHSL   5 AA     26  ( 4-21- 1)  0.695   0.0807
   110   MN  987.6296               NorthernTier  MSHSL   7 AA     26  ( 6-20- 0)  0.683   0.0779
   
   111   MN  987.5270                   Marshall  MSHSL   3  A     27  (12-14- 1)  0.735   0.0903
   112   MN  987.4830                  Mahtomedi  MSHSL   4 AA     25  ( 3-22- 0)  0.706   0.0833
   113   MN  987.4018                  AlbertLea  MSHSL   1  A     25  (14-10- 1)  0.739   0.0911    Sec 1A Champ
   114   SD  987.1767                 SiouxFalls  SDAHA   0  A     23  (19- 4- 0)  1.257   0.2637
   115   WI  987.1716                USMWildcats   WIAA   2  A     24  (14- 9- 1)  0.830   0.1150
   116   MN  987.1303                 Hutchinson  MSHSL   2  A     25  ( 3-21- 1)  0.713   0.0850
   117   WI  987.0566           SuperiorSpartans   WIAA   1  A     24  ( 8-16- 0)  0.751   0.0942
   118   MN  986.7973                    Waconia  MSHSL   2  A     26  ( 5-20- 1)  0.709   0.0839
   119   MN  986.7287                  RockRidge  MSHSL   7  A     24  ( 7-17- 0)  0.722   0.0871
   120   MN  986.6943             MinnesotaRiver  MSHSL   2  A     26  (13-13- 0)  0.743   0.0923
   
   121   WI  986.5920              EauClaireArea   WIAA   1  A     25  ( 5-19- 1)  0.828   0.1145
   122   WI  986.5688                  Lightning   WIAA   2  A     22  ( 9-12- 1)  0.888   0.1318
   123   MN  986.3940                     Austin  MSHSL   1  A     26  (15-11- 0)  0.745   0.0926
   124   WI  986.3148                    Viroqua   WIAA   2  A     22  (12- 9- 1)  0.903   0.1360
   125   WI  986.2962            BlackRiverFalls   WIAA   1  A     25  (10-15- 0)  0.832   0.1157
   126   MN  986.2739                 NorthShore  MSHSL   7  A     26  ( 7-19- 0)  0.716   0.0857
   127   MN  985.9634              RochesterMayo  MSHSL   1 AA     26  ( 9-17- 0)  0.731   0.0893
   128   WI  985.8691             NorthlandPines   WIAA   1  A     19  (11- 8- 0)  0.906   0.1369
   129   WI  985.7798                   Icebergs   WIAA   2  A     22  ( 9-12- 1)  0.904   0.1366
   130   WI  985.5262             CapCityCougars   WIAA   2  A     25  (13-11- 1)  0.880   0.1294
   
   131   SD  985.3435                   Mitchell  SDAHA   0  A     18  (16- 2- 0)  1.371   0.3141
   132   NE  985.0451      OmahaLadyJrLancers19U   NGHL   0 T1      4  ( 1- 3- 0)  1.887   0.5948
   133   ND  984.8418                  Williston  NDHSL   0  A     22  ( 4-17- 1)  0.960   0.1539
   134   MN  984.6959      Breckenridge-Wahpeton  MSHSL   6  A     11  ( 6- 5- 0)  0.925   0.1429
   135   MN  984.6841           RochesterCentury  MSHSL   1 AA     25  ( 6-18- 1)  0.730   0.0890
   136   MN  984.6770                     Windom  MSHSL   3  A     23  ( 8-15- 0)  0.773   0.0998
   137   WI  984.6549                 RockCounty   WIAA   2  A     25  ( 7-16- 2)  0.877   0.1283
   138   MN  984.2664                   Fairmont  MSHSL   3  A     24  ( 7-14- 3)  0.765   0.0976
   139   ID  984.2530        IdahoFallsEagles19U   NGHL   0 T2      4  ( 3- 0- 1)  1.975   0.6511
   140   MN  984.1931                  Princeton  MSHSL   7 AA     26  ( 2-24- 0)  0.702   0.0824
   
   141   WI  983.7809                 Brookfield   WIAA   2  A     24  ( 6-17- 1)  0.868   0.1259
   142   ND  983.6543                  Dickinson  NDHSL   0  A     20  ( 4-16- 0)  0.978   0.1596
   143   MN  983.1123      MinnetonkaSkippers19U   MAHA   0  B      7  ( 3- 2- 2)  2.139   0.7643
   144   WI  983.0603            BadgerLightning   WIAA   2  A     22  ( 8-14- 0)  0.909   0.1380
   145   ID  983.0565           SunValleySuns19U   NGHL   0 T2      4  ( 3- 0- 1)  2.112   0.7447
   146   MN  983.0046                    RedWing  MSHSL   4  A     24  ( 4-20- 0)  0.733   0.0897
   147   ND  982.8895                 Langdon19U  NDAHA   0  B     20  (17- 3- 0)  1.320   0.2909
   148   WI  982.8812                  Arrowhead   WIAA   2  A     22  ( 6-16- 0)  0.892   0.1328
   149   SD  982.8746                   Aberdeen  SDAHA   0  A     22  (14- 8- 0)  1.268   0.2684
   150   WI  982.8369               NorthernEdge   WIAA   1  A     15  ( 3-12- 0)  0.946   0.1495
   
   151   WI  982.7864             WisValleyUnion   WIAA   1  A     24  ( 3-21- 0)  0.849   0.1203
   152   MN  982.6317                MankatoWest  MSHSL   2  A     25  ( 4-20- 1)  0.744   0.0923
   153   MN  982.5513           BlaineIceCats19U   MAHA   0  B     15  ( 8- 5- 2)  1.924   0.6180
   154   MN  982.4517                     Waseca  MSHSL   1  A     25  ( 4-19- 2)  0.750   0.0939
   155   MN  982.3121                Worthington  MSHSL   3  A     25  ( 5-20- 0)  0.755   0.0953
   156   MT  982.2918      FlatheadLadyFusion19U   NGHL   0 T2      4  ( 2- 1- 1)  1.983   0.6566
   157   ND  982.2832               Bottineau19U  NDAHA   0  B     30  (17-12- 1)  1.188   0.2356
   158   ND  982.2001                   Minot19U  NDAHA   0  B     14  (12- 2- 0)  1.369   0.3131
   159   UT  981.8626       UtahLadyGrizzlies19U   NGHL   0 T2      5  ( 2- 2- 1)  2.029   0.6877
   160   MN  981.7271              PrairieCentre  MSHSL   6  A     23  ( 5-17- 1)  0.748   0.0935
   
   161   MN  981.6873                     Winona  MSHSL   1  A     19  ( 0-19- 0)  0.797   0.1061
   162   ND  981.4850               Williston19U  NDAHA   0  B     20  (14- 6- 0)  1.312   0.2876
   163   MN  981.4782            EdinaHornets19U   MAHA   0  B      7  ( 2- 5- 0)  2.173   0.7887
   164   ND  981.2428                  Mandan19U  NDAHA   0  B     22  (12- 9- 1)  1.301   0.2828
   165   ND  980.9687                 DevilsLake  NDHSL   0  A     22  ( 2-20- 0)  0.944   0.1487
   166   MT  980.9318          MissoulaBruins19U   NGHL   0 T2      7  ( 2- 5- 0)  1.817   0.5516
   167   IL  980.8435            ChicagoHawks16U   NIHL   0 T2      4  ( 3- 0- 1)  1.931   0.6225
   168   ND  980.8155                  Crosby19U  NDAHA   0  B     18  ( 8- 9- 1)  1.342   0.3005
   169   MT  980.7084          BozemanIcedogs19U   NGHL   0 T2      4  ( 2- 2- 0)  1.983   0.6566
   170   SD  980.3882                  Brookings  SDAHA   0  A     19  (10- 9- 0)  1.342   0.3008
   
   171   NE  980.3435      OmahaLadyJrLancers16U   NGHL   0 T2      4  ( 2- 1- 1)  1.931   0.6225
   172   SD  980.3435                       Oahe  SDAHA   0  A     18  ( 4-11- 3)  1.371   0.3141
   173   WY  980.1398        JacksonLadyMoose19U   NGHL   0 T2      4  ( 1- 3- 0)  2.112   0.7447
   174   ND  979.9904             WatfordCity19U  NDAHA   0  B     22  ( 8-14- 0)  1.266   0.2677
   175   MN  979.9551          Morris/BensonArea  MSHSL   6  A     23  ( 2-20- 1)  0.750   0.0939
   176   SD  979.7343                SiouxCenter  SDAHA   0  A     19  ( 5-13- 1)  1.364   0.3108
   177   ND  979.5234                Bismarck19U  NDAHA   0  B     18  ( 4-14- 0)  1.336   0.2979
   178   SD  979.0935                  Watertown  SDAHA   0  A     22  (11-11- 0)  1.359   0.3083
   179   MN  979.0079               DetroitLakes  MSHSL   8  A     24  ( 4-20- 0)  0.740   0.0914
   180   SD  978.7435                   Rushmore  SDAHA   0  A     18  ( 6-12- 0)  1.371   0.3141
   
   181   WI  978.7331                    Medford   WIAA   1  A     18  ( 2-16- 0)  0.918   0.1408
   182   SD  978.6435                      Huron  SDAHA   0  A     18  ( 5-12- 1)  1.371   0.3141
   183   MN  977.7253         InternationalFalls  MSHSL   8  A     21  ( 0-21- 0)  0.760   0.0965
   184   SD  977.5935                    Yankton  SDAHA   0  A     22  ( 1-20- 1)  1.359   0.3083
   185   ND  976.7808               Northwood19U  NDAHA   0  B     21  ( 3-18- 0)  1.318   0.2900
   186   WI  976.1940                  BeaverDam   WIAA   2  A     19  ( 0-19- 0)  0.939   0.1471
   187   MN  975.2428                  Duluth19U   MAHA   0  B      1  ( 0- 1- 0)  2.772   1.2828
   188   ND  975.1491                Richland19U  NDAHA   0  B     21  ( 2-19- 0)  1.318   0.2899


LSQRANK
Posts: 415
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm

Re: WEEK 15: Girls HS Hockey Computerized Ratings Feb 20th, 2022

Post by LSQRANK » Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:46 pm

Below are the 16 State tournament qualifers

Code: Select all

LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx     Tournament Qualifiers
======================================================================================================================== 
     1   MN 1000.0000                    Andover  MSHSL   7 AA     27  (27- 0- 0)  0.000   0.0000  Sec 7AA Champ
     2   MN  999.2172                      Edina  MSHSL   6 AA     27  (25- 2- 0)  0.668   0.0745  Sec 6AA Champ
     3   MN  998.9385                 Minnetonka  MSHSL   2 AA     28  (22- 6- 0)  0.651   0.0708  Sec 2AA Champ
     8   MN  996.9853              GentryAcademy  MSHSL   4 AA     28  (22- 6- 0)  0.664   0.0736  Sec 4AA Champ
     9   MN  996.7373                 MapleGrove  MSHSL   5 AA     28  (20- 6- 2)  0.643   0.0690  Sec 5AA Champ
    17   MN  995.8530                 Burnsville  MSHSL   3 AA     28  (22- 5- 1)  0.707   0.0834  Sec 3AA Champ
    36   MN  993.5766                 Northfield  MSHSL   1 AA     27  (19- 5- 3)  0.706   0.0832  Sec 1AA Champ
    37   MN  993.5029       Brainerd/LittleFalls  MSHSL   8 AA     28  (17-11- 0)  0.692   0.0800  Sec 8AA Champ

     4   MN  997.5083                    Warroad  MSHSL   8  A     27  (23- 3- 1)  0.667   0.0742  Sec 8A  Champ
    10   MN  996.6816                      Orono  MSHSL   5  A     27  (24- 3- 0)  0.696   0.0808  Sec 5A  Champ
    19   MN  995.5572         Proctor/Hermantown  MSHSL   7  A     27  (18- 7- 2)  0.674   0.0759  Sec 7A  Champ
    41   MN  993.0360                SouthStPaul  MSHSL   4  A     27  (15-10- 2)  0.693   0.0803  Sec 4A  Champ
    59   MN  991.7741                    Luverne  MSHSL   3  A     25  (22- 3- 0)  0.754   0.0950  Sec 3A  Champ
    65   MN  991.5086                 RiverLakes  MSHSL   6  A     28  (16-12- 0)  0.702   0.0822  Sec 6A  Champ
    83   MN  990.2349                MankatoEast  MSHSL   2  A     26  (21- 5- 0)  0.729   0.0887  Sec 2A Champ
   113   MN  987.4018                  AlbertLea  MSHSL   1  A     25  (14-10- 1)  0.739   0.0911  Sec 1A Champ


LSQRANK
Posts: 415
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm

Re: WEEK 15: Girls HS Hockey Computerized Ratings Feb 20th, 2022

Post by LSQRANK » Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:49 pm

In case you are interested in calculating the margin-of-victory confidence intervals for each state tournament game,
below is an instructional HOW-TO:

Code: Select all

C.I.  =  MOV  +/-  MOE 

MOE = ([t(alpha)] * Snot * Sqrt( Qii + Qjj  - 2Qij ))

Use Qij = 0.031  for all future game predictions

Confidence
Level         Alpha     t-value
--------------------------------
68%           0.32       1.000
90%           0.10       1.645
95%           0.05       1.960
99%           0.01       2.575 

Example
-------
Calculate a 90% Confidence Interval for the score differential between a first round
playoff game for section 1AA between Lakeville_South and Rochester_Century

Ratings for both teams are:

Lakeville_South      996.8110           Qii = 0.0934
Rochester_Century    984.8070           Qjj = 0.0970
                     --------
     Predicted MOV =  12.004   ===> 12 goals           
	 
	 MOE =  (1.645)(2.442)* Sqrt( 0.0934 + 0.0970 - 2*(0.031) )  =  1.44
	 
Answer:  90% C.I.  =   [ 10.564 ... 13.444 ]
         95% C.I.  =   [ 10.288 ... 13.720 ]

Interpretation :  We are 90% confident that the interval from [10.564 to 13.444] will contain
                  the true value of the game score differential for the future girls HS
				  ice  hockey game between Lakeville_South and Rochester_Century 	 


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