Ms. Hockey 2023

Discussion of Minnesota Girls High School Hockey

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j4241
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Ms. Hockey 2023

Post by j4241 » Mon Mar 07, 2022 12:21 am

My final project for the year. This is a long intro post for the link that follows - feel free to not read if you're not interested in clicking. :-)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

I was inspired by an earlier comment about favorites for Ms. Hockey for next year, so wanted to look at how the ’23 group compared to the junior year seasons of past Ms. Hockey winners. This remains a very points (and goals) focused analysis, and there’s more to hockey than points. Also, obviously, the play next year will be the dominant factor in who wins the award, but I thought it would be interesting to see what the standard is and how the current ‘23s measured up. I included:

Reputation
- making the U18 team
- ’21-22 all state honors
Raw scoring (regular season only)
- goals/game
- assists/game
- pts/game
- % of a team’s offense
--- goals as % of team total
--- pts as a % of team total
--- (adjusted if a player missed games)
Strength of schedule adjusted scoring (regular season only)
- G and Pts/G vs top 10 teams
- G and Pts/G vs top 20 teams
- G and Pts/G vs teams ranked 21 and higher

All of these stats were from this year for the ‘23s, and the Ms. Hockey winners’ stats were from THEIR junior year (and the SoS based on rankings from that year’s top 10 and top 20 teams - all from historical myhockeyrankings.com data). They are also separated by position (the 8 past forwards that won are compared to the ’23 forwards, and the 3 past D that won compared to the ’23 D).

The Ms. Hockey winners stats (available on the Data tab) are summarized with Minimum, Median and Maximum values. The ’23s stats were then put into a “heat map.” Each player’s stat is color coded as follows:
- RED - players stat is below the minimum value of any Ms. Hockey winner (at that position)
- YELLOW - players stat is between the minimum and the median
- GREEN - players stat is greater than the median (but less than the max)
- BRIGHT GREEN - players stat is greater than or equal to the max value

For All state, the color coding is the same as my earlier spreadsheet - dark green is AA all state, bright green is A all state, orange is AA HM, and tan is A HM.

For the U18 column, since past Ms Hockey winners have failed to make a US U18 team, players that did not make it are orange, and players that did (Lindsay and Jenessa Gazdik) are green.

This color coding is summarized by assigning values of 100 for green (or bright green), 10 for yellow (or orange/tan) and 1 for red (the “hidden values”). The “rep” score adds these hidden values for all-state and U18, “raw” adds hidden values for the 5 raw scoring stats, and the “SoS” adds hidden values for the 6 SoS adjusted scoring stats. “Total” adds those three scores together. This is not intended to be a “score,” though - it’s just a way to numerically summarize the heat map. For simplicity, lots of green means a season that compares favorably to past Ms. Hockey winners’ junior years. Lots of reds means a season that falls well below.

A few interesting takeaways:

No Ms. Hockey winner (from the last 11 years) has failed to be named all-state their junior year. If that’s a requirement, Morrison, Brown, Retrum, Higuchi, O’Hara, Lindsay, Broz and others would be OUT.

No Ms. Hockey winner at forward has scored less than 1 goal per game as a junior - if that holds true, Goettl, Sadura and many others would be OUT.

The standard for a D winning has been very high in terms of offensive output, and none of the current crop are really close to the standard set by Jungels, Wethington and Baldwin.

There are a number of stats highlighted in bright green - better than any previous Ms. Hockey winner. These are worth a comment.
- VanBatavia’s (explained by an unusually weak SoS)
- Assists / game by some forwards on strong teams:
--- Brown, O’Hara and Lindsay coupled their high assists with modest goal totals - likely reflecting being involved in scoring, but at an overall point per game total that is not quite as exceptional.
--- Hendrickson played on a team that played a weaker schedule and on a line with an exceptional goal scorer.
- Wendorf’s goal/game vs top 20 is based on 1 goal in 2 games - a tiny sample.
- Finally, Boerger’s 2 pts/game vs top 20 teams was just exceptional relative to the Ms. Hockey field.

One other note - All of the past Ms. Hockey winners but Heise and Cameranesi played top 8 schedules. My takeaway - it takes an exceptional player to win the award and not play one of the toughest schedules in the state. That would seem to suggest the Warroad and Gentry kids might be facing an uphill battle, unless they have point totals next year way past kids that play top 10 schedules.

The four forward seasons that are meaningfully differentiated from the rest in this analysis (think lots of greens) are Boerger, Johnson, Sajevic and Morrison (other than the last not being named all-state). Retrum and Hendrickson also aren’t far behind that group, with Retrum playing a top 10 schedule.

This is a lot to digest - I realize I’m in the small minority in having an interest in exploring and discussing at this depth. But I’d be curious to hear any reactions.

Lace'emUp
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Re: Ms. Hockey 2023

Post by Lace'emUp » Mon Mar 07, 2022 9:48 am

One intangible to look at is who Ms. Hockey has gone onto play for in college. Of the 27 winners, 20 have gone onto play for the Gophers. I know, 2 of the last 3 have or will not do that, but it's something to keep in mind. Only one time has back-to-back Ms. Hockey winners NOT gone onto play for the Gophers (06 Thunstrum, 07 Chute). With Jungels winning it this year (WI), if you're looking at an intangible to push a prediction one way or the other, look to who is committed to playing for the Gophers in 23/24.

j4241
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Re: Ms. Hockey 2023

Post by j4241 » Mon Mar 07, 2022 9:56 am

Good point about college commitment - I added that column.

j4241
Posts: 533
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2015 2:38 pm

Re: Ms. Hockey 2023

Post by j4241 » Mon Mar 07, 2022 9:58 am

Though I think that's been true in the past because all of the best kids went to the Gophers. This year is unusual - end of early recruiting and COVID muddled things - I'm not sure all the best went to the Gophers in this class (though all four Gopher commits are clearly very good players).

j4241
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Re: Ms. Hockey 2023

Post by j4241 » Wed Mar 09, 2022 1:57 pm

I went back and added three columns to the spreadsheet (all still available at the original link) - primary points per game (counting goals and first assists only), and goals and points per game 5v5 and SH (eliminating powerplay goals and assists). Secondary assists provide a tailwind to kids who play on better teams. Sometimes second assists are the key plays in creating goals, but overall, second assists are more dependent on the quality of your teammates than are goals and firsts. And power play points are more team events than individual ones, on average. You may disagree with the importance of these stats, but I was curious to add them and compare them to past Ms. Hockey winners. All of the supporting detail is available on the worksheet.

There is a lot of data here - it may be confusing to look at. But I believe the data is fairly summarized in the heat map, and I think that gives a good overview of who the best offensive forwards and D are in Minnesota in the '23 class (again, this is an entirely points focused analysis, so ignores defensive play of both D and centers, which is obviously very important).

Takeaways from the added data - there were a few bright green data points (better than any prior Ms. Hockey winner's junior year) - in 5v5/SH pts/game: Morrison, Johnson, Sajevic and Hendrickson, and Morrison in 5v5 G/G. The highest Ms. Hockey winner's stats in these categories were Heise's, who compiled hers against the 87th hardest schedule that year - so there isn't a strength of schedule argument - those four kids just put up very impressive numbers compared to any prior Ms. Hockey winner - with SoS for Warroad (36), Gentry (20), and Blake (5). On the D side of things, Ju Gazdik, Hause, Eikos and Chamernick scored goals at 5v5/SH at a higher rate than any previous winner (M. Wethington set that bar).

j4241
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Re: Ms. Hockey 2023

Post by j4241 » Thu Nov 03, 2022 12:13 pm

Very long note, some of you don’t like my comments - feel free to ignore!

Also, hockey is a team game, and I’m personally most excited to watch team results this year. I will throw out my thoughts on teams I expect to do well in a separate note.

That said, Breakdown and YHH have recently come out with their list of Ms. Hockey candidates for ’23, and both are lists with a ton of overlap and a lot of familiar names (and great hockey players). I thought I’d throw my two cents in based on the data I compiled from last year, and from watching a lot of elite league play, with a particular nod to kids I thought might have been overlooked.

First, their lists:

Breakdown (from their 9 skaters featured on the cover):
Boerger (Andover/St. Thomas)
Goettl (Andover/Gophers)
Retrum (Maple Grove/Penn State)
O’Hara (Centennial/Gophers)
Johnson (Warroad/Bemidji)
Lindsay (Tonka/Gophers)
Klepinger (Tonka/Gophers)
Sadura (Tonka/UMD)
Van Batavia (Luverne/Mankato)

YHH (they said it was 11, but I only heard these 10):
Boerger
Goettl
Lindsay
Sajevic (Gentry/St. Thomas)
Van Batavia
Johnson
Bartz (Warroad/St. Thomas)
Sadura
Retrum
Brown (Andover/St. Thomas)

One observation I think is interesting is that I believe every single one of the kids on these lists has appeared on TV for the state tournament (Bartz in North Dakota), which is a form of exposure that is more a function of team success (depth, D quality, goaltending, etc) and section alignment (some teams have much easier paths to this attention than others) than it does individual excellence (though obviously the latter is a component), and draws A LOT more attention by casual fans. There are certainly precedents for kids not playing in state to not only be on the top 10 list, but to win (Grace Zumwinkle never played in a SINGLE A state tournament). Both Breakdown and YHH make a solid effort, but I’d describe their attention to any individual class of hockey players as casual (at best, for Breakdown), and studied, but limited (in the case of YHH). Tony and Pete watch a TON of hockey, but bring some interesting biases and watch a decade+ worth of age groups every year, both boys and girls, which makes it tough to get really dialed in to a specific class. And in addition to their bias in favor of kids they see at state every year (and perhaps an anti-private bias), they also seem to have a bias in favor of customers (both advertising and attendance at their tourneys). PETE and TONY - THAT IS NOT A CRITICISM (if anything, maybe an ad for your tourneys). I enjoy reading your content and hearing your thoughts on the podcast. And I get it, I would have that bias if I were running their business, too. Just worth being aware of for anyone consuming their content.

So, I won’t presume to propose a list of 10 (I have biases of my own, obviously), but I think there are some kids on both of these lists that I saw play elite league hockey and rarely were able to create offense against high end opponents. There were also kids left off both lists (in particular, the Blake trio - Morrison, Higuchi and Broz, but also Sajevic (left off Breakdown)), who consistently created offense against the very best teams in North America. There was extremely limited D representation (Klep only on one list), which is silly. I think it would be a disservice to the game not to have at least 2 or 3 in the list of 10. I would note Hause (in particular - probably the leading offensive threat for Tradition), Hemp, and both Gazdiks as D who were consistently outstanding during elite league play. This is a high school hockey award, so maybe Elite League play is not relevant, but kids I thought were outstanding that were left off also had junior year seasons that are consistent with the scoring output I saw this fall. I think it’s striking to see kids who were outstanding against the best high school players in North America overlooked, and conversely kids lauded who (were marginally effective?/struggled?/disappeared?) against that level of competition.

A quick aside about elite league play - the Northern Elite team (roughly half Warroad) had one win against Empowers and Tradition. There are very good players, with Bartz and Kirkeby, in particular to me, being noticeable. And that team will be outstanding this year in high school - way too much depth and ability not to be a top 3 or 4 overall team. But I did not think any of the other forwards played at the level of the very top metro kids. Johnson and Hendrickson are good hockey players, but not among the 10 best in Minnesota, in my opinion. Bartz is close (Kirkeby is good, but outside the top metro D, in my opinion), but it’s hard to imagine a North Dakota transplant being nominated for an award over more talented kids that have had long and outstanding high school careers. Regarding Empowers and Tradition, Tradition’s offense seemed to be driven by Hause, and also as much by Halvorsen (Edina/Wisconsin) and Avar (Tonka/Cornell), as by the senior forwards prominently represented on the above lists (Lindsay, Sadura, O'Hara, Retrum). (O’Hara was named only by Breakdown.) Mumm (Andover/St. Thomas) may have been their next most effective D, in my opinion.

Just to tie some of these comments back to some of the scoring analysis last year (which, as a reminder, I believe includes nearly all players that performed at a top level), a couple data points (all presented in order for the stats, and names of ‘23s not on 0 or only 1 of the above lists are bolded):

Top 5 points (not per game) vs last year’s AA tournament field (including players from all grades, regular season games only - data available here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing):

Morrison (Blake/Dartmouth)
Tuttle (’22) (Rosemount/Mankato)
Boerger
Higuchi (Blake/Yale)
Matthews (’22) (Wayzata/Ohio State)

Top 5 pts/game vs top 10 opponents (’23s only for the rest, and all data from here - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing):

Boerger
Morrison
Brown
Goettl
Retrum

Top 5 pts/game vs top 20 opponents

Boerger
Morrison
Brown
Sajevic
Goettl

Top 5 pts/game overall

Van Batavia
Hendrickson
Johnson
Sajevic
Boerger

Top 5 goals/game vs top 10

Morrison/Boerger tied
Retrum
Johnson
Sajevic

Top 5 goals/game vs top 20

Sajevic
Morrison
Boerger
Retrum
Julianna Gazdik (Gentry/Mankato)

Top 5 goals/game overall

Van Batavia
Midtbo (Minneapolis/unknown)
Sajevic
Johnson
Morrison

Top 5 assists/game vs top 10

Brown
Goettl
Hendrickson
Higuchi
Morrison
/Retrum (tied)

Top 5 assists/game vs top 20

Brown
Lindsay
Goettl
Boerger
Higuchi

Top 5 assists/game vs overall

Hendrickson
Van Batavia
Boerger
Johnson
Lindsay

These stats are from last year, and this is a senior year award. Or perhaps it’s a lifetime achievement award (as Tony said), in which case maybe the kids with the best 7th, 8th and 9th grade years have the inside track. These are also scoring only. An outstanding two way center (like Broz) does not have her value fully represented by a list like this. (It is also not a good way to look at the D, though I think a top 3 would need to consider Hause, Hemp, and both Gazdik’s in addition to Klepinger, all based both on elite league play and stats last year.)

That said, these are pretty reasonable ways to zero in on the best forwards, and I think paint a picture of some kids clearly overlooked on lists so far.

Lace'emUp
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Re: Ms. Hockey 2023

Post by Lace'emUp » Thu Nov 03, 2022 4:58 pm

From all that, I gather an early top 3 list of being Boerger, Morrison, and Sajevic. Two going to St. Thomas and the other going to Dartmouth. With that said, there's always a future Gopher in the running. Therefore, I'll put Goettl and Lindsay in the group to round out the top 5.

Slap Shot
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Re: Ms. Hockey 2023

Post by Slap Shot » Fri Nov 04, 2022 8:41 am

Interesting to see a lot of future STU players on those lists. Could they be an up and coming program on the ladies side? Yes I realize that question is a bit out of place here.

j4241
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Re: Ms. Hockey 2023

Post by j4241 » Fri Nov 04, 2022 8:55 am

No doubt. More generally, Covid, post-graduate players and transfers, lots of moving parts - I think college hockey will be more wide open over the next few years than usual. And I’d take St Thomas’ classes of ‘23 and ‘24s over just about anybody.

j4241
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Re: Ms. Hockey 2023

Post by j4241 » Thu Dec 08, 2022 12:45 pm

This CBS interview with Lindsay tells me the Ms. Hockey campaign is in full swing, and wanted to share a few early thoughts (many more games to come). I am offering this as a counterpoint to that sales pitch, but this is not intended to be a criticism of her - she is a fantastic hockey player, clearly one of the best in Minnesota. She was, in my mind, also clearly the best 8th grade forward in Minnesota in the '23 class, which helps explain why Frost grabbed her early. His strategy for a long time was to verbally commit the best 8th graders in Minnesota before the rule changed, and it mostly worked (though it derailed a few kids, and he was wrong about a few kids). She's also highly thought of by USA Hockey given being a two time member of the U18 team. I don't think he was wrong about Lindsay - if the '23 class were re-recruited, I'm sure she would be high on his and others' lists.

That said, Cassano saying she has vision like no one she's ever seen seems a little odd given she's tied for her team lead in assists. The best ever? And her overall point total at a bit over 2ppg so far is very impressive, but behind at least one kid who has played a harder schedule so far (Sajevic at Gentry), similar but slightly ahead of kids playing a meaningfully harder schedule (Higuchi and Broz at Blake - more than 1 goal per game harder than Tonka's schedule), and slightly ahead of some playing a harder schedule (Delmonico, Agerter and both Gazdik's at Gentry), and well behind a couple kids playing slightly easier schedules (all three Warroad forwards - Bartz, Hendrickson and Johnson, and Retrum at Maple Grove), not to mention several kids she is way behind, albeit playing a much easier schedule (like Oien at Owatonna and Van Batavia at Luverne). This performance is also reminiscent of last year - very good, but clearly not among the best.

As I explored in analysis from last year, I also think it's most relevant to look at performances vs top end opponents, and some of these kids have done very well in that regard - Sajevic has 4 goals and 2 assists in 2 games vs top 10 teams, Je Gazdik has 1 and 1 in 2 games, Ju Gazdik has 1 and 2 in 2, Agerter has 1 and 2 in 2, uncommitted Delmonico has 3 and 1 in 2, including a hat trick against Andover. Higuchi at Blake has 4 goals and 1 assists in 5 games vs top 10 teams. Goettl has 6 assists in 3 games vs top 10 teams. By contrast, Lindsay has been more dependent on big scoring totals versus weak teams. She has played two top 10 teams - and produced 0 points - and those were in losses to Andover and a near-loss to a Moorhead team that's good, but not so good they stopped Higuchi or Broz. Lindsay's 5 goal game vs. Stillwater was very impressive, and they're outside the top 10 but not by much. Still - blanked in their two close games is performance worth noting when considering who is among the best.

And this analysis ignores the two others I thought were top 3 candidates - Boerger and Morrison. Morrison has a longer term injury - yet to play this winter - which seems likely to eliminate her from contention regardless of how much she scores when she returns. Boerger, however, seems likely to get substantial consideration - her scoring is good (1.7ppg), she plays a much more difficult schedule than Tonka (1.7 goals/game harder than Tonka's), she is outstanding defensively as a center (like Broz), an area that Lindsay is much less exceptional than she is offensively, and she's the best player on what has been the best high school team over the last few years.

Again, this is not meant as a criticism of Lindsay, but the promotionalism of that interview made me think a gentle counterpoint might have some value.

Eagles93
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Re: Ms. Hockey 2023

Post by Eagles93 » Thu Dec 08, 2022 3:19 pm

Interesting quote from Lindsay: "We have all the talent, we have all the skill, but just overall like the discipline, and being able to to be mentally disciplined and also just finish games out, being able to stay in control and poised is something that's really gonna help us succeed this year"

Are the coaches actually emphasizing this, or is it a dig at teammates?

I think Lindsay is as big a shoo-in for Ms. Hockey as anyone in recent years. Not necessarily the most deserving, I agree with you that it's definitely debatable. But given how this award goes usually, I'd be shocked if Lindsay doesn't win, barring any long-term injury.

j4241
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Re: Ms. Hockey 2023

Post by j4241 » Thu Dec 08, 2022 4:32 pm

No way - Jungels was a bigger shoe in, Maddie Wethington, Hemp, at least. Not to mention Brandt, camerenisi.

But the gap between the likelihood of her winning and the degree to which she deserves it is as big as anyone. She deserves to be a candidate. Was the best 8th grader. Clearly no longer the best ‘23, and tarnished by the forum shopping.

j4241
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Re: Ms. Hockey 2023

Post by j4241 » Thu Dec 08, 2022 4:45 pm

Oh yikes - and Zumwinkle? Automatic

I think the closest comp would be Norby - highly promoted for years, very good player but clearly not as good as Bullock. There isn’t a single obvious candidate this year like here was that, but that’s because Norby was probably the second best player. This year there are several better.

j4241
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Re: Ms. Hockey 2023

Post by j4241 » Fri Dec 09, 2022 9:13 am

Eagles93 wrote:
Thu Dec 08, 2022 3:19 pm
Interesting quote from Lindsay: "We have all the talent, we have all the skill, but just overall like the discipline, and being able to to be mentally disciplined and also just finish games out, being able to stay in control and poised is something that's really gonna help us succeed this year"

Are the coaches actually emphasizing this, or is it a dig at teammates?
I actually think this is impressive of her to say. It is said in a relatively positive way, but acknowledges the deficiency, while a bunch of adults around her seem unable to. But in terms of a dig, if anything it's at her coaches. Team discipline is up to the coaching staff, and they seem to be coming up short.

Eagles93
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Re: Ms. Hockey 2023

Post by Eagles93 » Fri Dec 09, 2022 11:47 am

j4241 wrote:
Fri Dec 09, 2022 9:13 am
I actually think this is impressive of her to say. It is said in a relatively positive way, but acknowledges the deficiency, while a bunch of adults around her seem unable to. But in terms of a dig, if anything it's at her coaches. Team discipline is up to the coaching staff, and they seem to be coming up short.
I agree, the recent suspensions suspensions of 7 and 14 (slap on the wrist for the latter) were probably fresh in her head when she made the comment. I'm sure she was just as disappointed at the undisciplined incidents dating to the championship game last year as others.

As for Ms Hockey, I'm certainly not saying Lindsay is as good as Wethington, Hemp, Jungels, Zumwinkle, etc. I'm saying she is as big of a shoo-in because of who is in the rest of the field and the trends of this particular award. (State tourneys/championships, lifetime achievement, Gopher commit, etc.) I like the work you put in to break down the numbers and compare who does best against better competition to find the most "worthy" winner but in the end, the voters don't go that deep into the weeds, and who else really has the resume? Maybe I'm wrong but...

No way a winner comes from Gentry.
Nor an out-state transfer like Reetz.
Boerger and Goettl somewhat cancel each other out. (I realize you could technically say this about the other Tonka girls with Lindsay.)
Reetz hurts Johnson's chances.
The only true dark horse in my opinion is Van Batavia as she'll end up with 100+ points again and well over 400 for her career.

And to be clear, if Lindsay wins, I wouldn't be upset. She's definitely one of the top few seniors in HS hockey. And of course, it's early December, things can change but assuming Tonka doesn't completely melt down this year or Lindsay get injured, it's her award to lose.

j4241
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Re: Ms. Hockey 2023

Post by j4241 » Fri Dec 09, 2022 11:59 am

All certainly reasonable (and I appreciate your thoughtful time), but I also think that reflects something like the consensus. The award should go to the best senior, and, in my opinion, that’s not her (enough so that I think it’s a hard case to make, outside of reputation). Consensus and wrong seems worth tilting against, as far as windmills go.

jg2112
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Re: Ms. Hockey 2023

Post by jg2112 » Fri Dec 09, 2022 12:53 pm

Reetz is the athletic director for (I think) Prior Lake.

Bartz is who you're thinking of.

Eagles93
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Re: Ms. Hockey 2023

Post by Eagles93 » Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:11 pm

Hah, no idea why I wrote Reetz, yes I meant Bartz. We're on the same page, is Lindsay THE best senior in HS hockey this year? Debatable, I'd argue along with you that the answer is no. If I'm a D1 coach and can pick any 2023 girl right now, she wouldn't be the one for me. Again, NOT a dig on her, she's still a heck of a player and will be a productive Gopher. But like a lot of awards in various fields, the "bigger picture" is usually factored in.

jg2112
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Re: Ms. Hockey 2023

Post by jg2112 » Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:58 pm

Eagles93 wrote:
Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:11 pm
Hah, no idea why I wrote Reetz, yes I meant Bartz. We're on the same page, is Lindsay THE best senior in HS hockey this year? Debatable, I'd argue along with you that the answer is no. If I'm a D1 coach and can pick any 2023 girl right now, she wouldn't be the one for me. Again, NOT a dig on her, she's still a heck of a player and will be a productive Gopher. But like a lot of awards in various fields, the "bigger picture" is usually factored in.
I'm sure what you're alluding to in the "bigger picture" include promotion and agents. Yes, even for girls' hockey. Breck did extensive PR for Zumwinkle, Wethington had the Fox Sports special on Hockey Day and the family connections and, yes, there are agents working behind the scenes for certain players. I have little doubt the player being discussed here has that support this year.

Eagles93
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Re: Ms. Hockey 2023

Post by Eagles93 » Fri Dec 09, 2022 6:37 pm

jg2112 wrote:
Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:58 pm
I'm sure what you're alluding to in the "bigger picture" include promotion and agents. Yes, even for girls' hockey. Breck did extensive PR for Zumwinkle, Wethington had the Fox Sports special on Hockey Day and the family connections and, yes, there are agents working behind the scenes for certain players. I have little doubt the player being discussed here has that support this year.
That's some of it, of course. In other news, WCCO sure got the scoop that Tonka has a good girls hockey team this year and the Captain has experience winning state titles.

j4241
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Re: Ms. Hockey 2023

Post by j4241 » Sat Dec 10, 2022 8:52 am

If championship pedigree were the deciding criteria, I don't think three single A wins in 7th, 8th and 9th grades as a role player (with Mobley and goaltending driving the bus for those teams - and Mobley accounting for a high percentage of Lindsay's point totals as a young player) would rank as highly in my estimation as Boerger's two (possibly going on 3?) AA titles, with the last two (if they win this year) as the star and point leader, to consider just one alternative candidate.

Lindsay also won a u16 tier 1 national championship last year - another significant career team accomplishment (though she finished tied with four other players for fifth on her team in scoring in that event - another data point about how much the teams she's been on being a factor in her career team success).

Tonka plays a much easier schedule this year than usual for a top 2 or 3 AA team (looking like barely a top 20 schedule right now). If she puts up 70 or 80 points in the regular season (adjusted down for games she misses for the u18s - by comparison, Mobley had 73 in 25 games against the 19th hardest schedule her senior year), and either wins gold at 18s (while contributing) or Tonka finally beats Andover this year, I might change my tune.

Anyway, the goal isn't to tear her down - she's a terrific player. I would much prefer not to apply evaluative attention to a single player. But the idea that it's just an automatic for her requires injecting some balance, because it is unfair to other players and not supportable.

Cookster
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Re: Ms. Hockey 2023

Post by Cookster » Sun Dec 11, 2022 7:29 am

I have been fortunate enough to broadcast a number of the girls games so far this season, and I have seen Tonka, Edina, Maple Grove, Blake, & Hill Murray among others. I hope to do a gentry game later in the season.

There is no question that Lindsay is extremely talented. I just wonder what would happen if you switched her with some of these top players on different teams. Would she have the same level of production? It would be great to see how she would fare if she played on a team like Chaska Chan going up against the rest of the Tonka squad. Granted I know that can't happen, but I am trying to figure if she is just that good, or if she really benefits from what is around her. No question she helps makes Tonka great.

Again, is this a lifetime award, or an award for just 2023. Those voting on the award need to keep that in mind.

Well Driller
Posts: 40
Joined: Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:43 am

Re: Ms. Hockey 2023

Post by Well Driller » Sun Dec 11, 2022 9:02 am

Uma is clearly NOT the best senior goalie. Put her on a weaker team and she's not even part of the discussion.

Lindsay is a terrific player - deserving of Ms. Hockey consideration. Put her on a weaker team and she's still part of the discussion.

Comparing Lindsay to Mobley is apples to oranges. As noted, Mobley had 73 points during the regular season. She also had another 23 points in sections and state according to the MN Hub. She could have easily had another 30 points if Breck had kept shooting in 3rd periods, but their coach constantly pulled the reigns in during blowout games. Mobley was head and shoulders above everyone her senior year. Class A or AA. Lindsay isn't.

Eagles93
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Re: Ms. Hockey 2023

Post by Eagles93 » Sun Dec 11, 2022 11:17 am

Well Driller wrote:
Sun Dec 11, 2022 9:02 am
Uma is clearly NOT the best senior goalie. Put her on a weaker team and she's not even part of the discussion.
Interesting take. I disagree, she certainly passes the "eye test" for me. She has definitely had great teams in front of her but she's also a large part of the reason those teams were great. There are other goalies that benefit a ton from the team in front of them and probably get too much credit.

Curious which senior goalie(s) you think are clearly better than Uma?

j4241
Posts: 533
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2015 2:38 pm

Re: Ms. Hockey 2023

Post by j4241 » Sun Dec 11, 2022 11:18 am

If memory serves you've commented knowledgeably about Breck in the past, so I assume there's some history in your remarks. That said, I think you're wide of the mark. Both Corniea and Lindsay have had - let's just say carefully managed careers. Neither would ever have been allowed to play on a weaker team.

But whatever you think about the choices made, Corniea, right now, is a very strong goalie - big, fairly technically sound (prone to over-glove a bit), good lateral quickness, good glove, good depth management, physically strong to control her crease, competes hard. Her high school track record certainly benefits from elite talent around her but she's literally never had a bad game for Edina (never given up more than 3 goals, I believe), and I've seen her win elite league games (or keep games close) against elite national opponents with depleted rosters in front of her. I've also seen other candidates for best senior goalie get lit up in similar circumstances. Lindsay, by contrast, is a top player - certainly deserves Ms Hockey consideration (not just handed to her, as the PR campaign is hoping). But on a weaker team? She doesn't score as much on probably the most talent heavy high school team against top opponents as some kids that play with less talent do. She has a high offensive hockey IQ and very good vision, outstanding edges and escapability in tight areas, good hands (but not elite, other than her toe drag), is quick but not explosive, fast but not elite speed, a fairly quick release with good power on both a wrist and slap shot, high compete but average strength and bite. All of this adds up to her being a very good offensive player, but not at the highest level in creating chances against top end opponents. Her point totals are also pretty dependent on the PP, which is a testament to the quality and skill of the Tonka D. In 5v5 scoring chance creation, she is meaningfully behind some of her peers. That said, the goal she scored against Edina yesterday was slick!

And I won't re-litigate Mobley vs. Delianedis - both are awesome, both consistently overlooked by USA Hockey, both having roughly point per game college careers so far.

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