Pre-season rankings

[j4241]

Similar to my last post, this is inpired by Breakdown and YHH publishing their own lists. These are:

Breakdown top 15 (AA only)

Andover
Minnetonka
Edina
Gentry
Holy Family
Hill Murray
Maple Grove
Stillwater
Grand Rapids
Blake
Moorhead
Centennial
Rogers
Apple Valley
Northfield

YHH top 10 (AA only)

Andover
Minnetonka
Gentry
Edina
Maple Grove
Hill Murray
Stillwater
Rogers
Benilde
Moorhead

YHH “others:”
Lakeville North
Centennial
Holy Family
Northfield

The top 15 teams (overall, AA and A) in order, sorted by the top returning lines scoring rate vs top 20 teams, from this analysis -https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing:

Andover
Apple Valley
Blake
Gentry
Tonka
Maple Grove
Hill Murray
Warroad
Edina
Holy Family
Stillwater
Centennial
Benilde
Wayzata
Mound

Note I left Procter, Rogers, Lakeville North, Grand Rapids, Northfield and Moorhead off this list when compiling. I’m guessing these are outside a top 10 overall ranking, so I’m going to toss them in the other bucket (though Procter and Rogers may warrant being there). Grand Rapids is a bit of a head scratcher for being on Breakdown’s list. They lost a goalie that faced 588 of the 600 shots their team gave up, and return a lineup that ranked 25 in myhockingrankings last year. (Procter was 19, Moorhead was 26, Northfield 37, Rogers was 9, and Lakeville North was 35). Bischoff has a great hockey name and is a very good young player, but also scores a ton against a pretty low end schedule (SoS ranking in the 50s). She is not enough to make them a top 10 AA team.

Couple other adjustments necessary:

Adjustments for depth:
Andover, Tonka, Gentry, Warroad and Edina will be among few teams that will have a third line that can generate offense. Andover and Tonka are in a class by themselves in this regard, but both Edina and Gentry deserve a bump to reflect that depth, and Warroad (especially given the addition of Bartz). Put them at 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 in that order as a result.

Adjustments to reflect this data overrating certain offenses:
Apple Valley had few top 20 games and those were against weaker teams, on average, than other teams’ top 20 games. I’m going to move them outside my top 10. Lakeville North is not on this list, as they return only one high end scorer (Hansen) and add Addie Bowlby and an unknown number of other Burnsville players. YHH is high on them, but this talent group scored well behind Apple Valley’s - hard to elevate them while bumping AV. Not sure where to put them, but I’m leaving them outside the top 10.

Adjustments for exceptional D and/or Goaltending:
Among teams not already adjusted, notable team advantages here include Maple Grove (Strom), Hill Murray (Zhan), Holy Family (Blair). YHH was dismissive of a Holy Family team that looks a bit like Benilde, but with an outstanding goaltender, better returning senior D, and at least some senior offensive talent that may not be offensively gifted, but are very good players. And they brought in strong young players to round things out. I could swap out Rogers or Procter if pressed, but I'll leave them in the top 10.

These adjustments leave Blake bumped down somewhere - I’d put them at 8 given likely having a top 1 or 2 line in the state, and a senior laden team. They will look like Lakeville South last year, but with a better top line and more depth, and both more tested against top end competition.

That leaves us with the following for my top 10:
Andover
Tonka
Gentry
Warroad
Edina
Maple Grove
Hill Murray
Blake
Holy Family
Stillwater

I would tend to tier them as follows:

Andover
Tonka

Gentry
Warroad

Edina
Maple Grove
Hill Murray

Blake
Holy Family
Stillwater

Others outside the top 10 after adjustments (alphabetical, some of which I did not include in my top returning line analysis but should have):

Apple Valley
Benilde (don’t have Koopman in analysis)
Centennial
Lakeville North (not included because don’t know the roster)
Moorhead (should have included)
Mound (left out of YHH top 5, but have two very good forwards, at least)
Northfield
Procter and
Rogers (should have included both, and both are probably right near that last tier)
Wayzata

[Lace'emUp]

Great breakdown j4241. Unless there are lots of injuries or nuclear war, Andover and Tonka will be in the championship again. Let the grind begin!

[j4241]

Thanks! As you said, all just pre-amble to the two super-teams clashing. Also, I'm not sure it's a great breakdown - the top line scoring as a starting point is a bit flimsy, but I think it got to a list that made sense to me. Regardless, it will be fun to cheer them on!

[InThePipes]

Where would one find rosters posted the earliest, the Hub?

[j4241]

If you’ve got a team in mind in particular, you could check the team Insta or Twitter. Otherwise the Hub.

[Slap Shot]

Similar to my last post, this is inpired by Breakdown and YHH publishing their own lists. These are:

Breakdown top 15 (AA only)

Andover
Minnetonka
Edina
Gentry
Edina
Holy Family
Hill Murray
Maple Grove
Stillwater
Grand Rapids
Blake
Moorhead
Centennial
Rogers
Apple Valley
Northfield

If not for the split voting Edina would have placed higher.

[j4241]

Oops. I don’t have the breakdown book in front of me, so not sure which is right, but not my best editing.

[j4241]

Original post fixed. Corrected Breakdown list here:

Breakdown top 15 (AA only)

Andover
Minnetonka
Edina
Gentry
Holy Family
Hill Murray
Maple Grove
Stillwater
Grand Rapids
Blake
Moorhead
Centennial
Rogers
Apple Valley
Northfield

[girlshockey4ever]

Damn. This is a lot of work. Thank you. Top notch.

[Timber545]

Nice analysis j4241. The guys at youthockeyhub.com also have an 80 minute girls season preview podcast, that is worth a listen.

[j4241]

Definitely worth a listen! (https://www.youthhockeyhub.com/news_art ... ow/1246055)

My Ms Hockey and Pre-season rankings post included their comments as a starting point - FYI.