Class A Rankings 12-23-12

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Where do you think Mankato West should be ranked?

Poll ended at Sun Dec 30, 2012 12:54 am

Top 5
1
5%
6-10
1
5%
11-15
8
38%
Unranked
11
52%
 
Total votes: 21

HShockeywatcher
Posts: 6848
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:21 pm

Class A Rankings 12-23-12

Post by HShockeywatcher » Sun Dec 23, 2012 12:54 am

Happy Holidays Everyone!
This week brought a couple pieces of confusion along with many of the teams in the top 15 not playing each other until early to Mid-January.

The biggest surprise to most this week was Hermantown's loss. I don't know that I am honestly convinced they are not a top 5 team but if you ignore preseason polls and look at both their schedule and that of the team that beat them, it is really hard to justify ranking either above too many of the teams above them now. So this is how things worked out for this week.

As I noted above, many teams are in a much different position than I expect them to finish the season. This is because there have been few match ups early in the season with teams that will happen later in the season. This week there are few holiday tournaments where we will learn much more about many of the teams; only one guaranteed game between top 15 teams this week.
There are also some teams to watch that could definitely be ranked in the coming weeks.

Please continue to provide feedback. I don't have all of the answers and I'm always interested in hearing what people think about teams that are difficult for me to compare based on their schedules.

Enjoy! Happy Holidays to all! Safe travels to everyone.

1. [1] Saint Thomas Academy (6-1)
The Cadets had two conference games this week, a shut out against NSP and a solid win over SSP. Their second best opponent of the season is coming up this week as they play their first of three games this week against Edina.
This week: Wed vs Edina, Thurs vs TBD, Fri vs TBD

2. [3] East Grand Forks (7-0-1)
The Green Wave are the only undefeated team left in class A, and by the end of the week could likely be the only undefeated team in the state. They play games this week they will likely win; it's been 4 games since they had a shut out, maybe they can get another over the holiday week.
This week: Thurs vs Bismarck Century, Fri vs TBD, Sat vs TBD

3. [4] Totino-Grace (6-1-1)
The Eagles added three more to the win column this week against teams in which no one expected the games to be close. They likely won't move this week in the rankings but their next game is against Duluth Marshall, so both team will be tested.
This week: Idle

4. [5] Rochester Lourdes (5-1)
The Eagles' one game this past week was canceled, so they don't have much to lose. They play in a holiday tournament where it is likely they will get three wins, and if they don't it will be to a team from outside MN so difficult to compare. The Eagles host Breck the following week, so that will be the time the we will get to see how more of the 3-12 team should be ranked.
This week: Thurs vs Northland Pines, Fri vs TBD, Sat vs TBD

5. [6] Warroad (6-2)
An OT win over TRF this week keeps Warroad where they're ranked and shows close section 8 teams play each other year after year. It has been 4 years since Warroad's dropped a game during their holiday tournament when Osseo beat them 3-1 during the 07-08 season. It wouldn't surprise anyone to see them 9-2 at the end of the week. Hopefully they aren't looking passed any of the games this week to their game at Cathedral the following week or the Grafton team who tied them last year may surprise them.
This week: Thurs vs Grafton, Fri vs Osseo, Sat vs #15 International Falls

6. [7] Princeton (8-1)
Princeton is this year's version of Little Falls from many years past, except they have two very notable wins on their schedule through the first seven games of the season. The Tigers play in a holiday tournament it is likely they will win, and two of the 4 notable foes on the second half of the schedule are the two notable teams they've beaten thus far. It will be great to see how Princeton continues to grow as a program.
This week: Wed vs Fairmont, Thurs vs TBD, Fri vs TBD

7. [8] St. Cloud Cathedral (6-3)
The Crusaders add two away wins to their schedule, including a shut out, this week. Three games on their home ice this week that no one would expect to see them lose, although Apollo and Tech will do their best to take one of the first two from them.
This week: Wed vs St Cloud Apollo, Thurs vs St Cloud Tech, Fri vs Sauk Rapids-Rice

8. [9] Breck (4-1)
The early season is telling us the Mustang's game on Thursday against East may actually turn out to be a good game. Following that with a game against either Edina or St Thomas will make for a good week of games regardless of the result. The Mustangs could remain in the same spot next week, or possibly jump some spots.
This week: Thurs vs Duluth East, Fri vs TBD, Sat vs TBD

9. [10] Little Falls (7-1)
The Flyers grab a win over Rogers this past week before they host three teams they should sweep this week. How long can Stumpf allow no more than 2 goals a game?
This week: Thurs vs Hutchinson, Fri vs Willmar, Sat vs Mound-Westonka

10. [11] Duluth Marshall (5-3)
The Hilltoppers lost to the Red Knights this week, but that was expected. Now they play host to their holiday tournament and open against one of WI's top teams. It should be a good week for them.
This week: Thurs vs Madison Edgewood, Fri vs TBD, Sat vs TBD

11. [-] Duluth Denfeld (7-3)
The Hunters beat the Hawks of Hermantown by 1 goal this week. Looking at both of the schedule and who they've each played thus far it's hard to bring Denfeld much higher. There is a good chance they will play a good Cloquet team this coming week, and they play many of the top Class A teams so they will have the opportunity to prove themselves as the season goes on.
This week: Thurs vs Detroit Lakes, Fri vs TBD, Sat vs TBD

12. [2] Hermantown (6-1)
The Hawks drop 10 spots as they drop a one goal game across town. Their schedule will allow them to climb as high as is appropriate for them, but until they play some better teams and win, they will stay low after losing to a team no one has ranked. I predict they play Eagan in the final of a tournament neither team is challenged during the first two games of...
This week: Wed vs Anoka, Thurs vs TBD, Fri vs TBD

13. [13] Delano (7-2)
A case could be made that the Tigers should be as high as 9th as the only blemishes on their schedule are 2 goal losses to Cathedral and Breck. This week they will be challenged, though, as they play Superior Thursday and have the opportunity to play each of Marhsall and Mankato West, so this week should tell us more about them.
This week: Thurs vs Superior, Fri vs TBD, Sat vs TBD

14. [-] Mankato West (9-1)
The Scarlets continue to win. It is tough to know much about them and it will likely be all season. Depending on how this coming week goes in the holiday tournament, there is a good chance they win 20 games this season despite possibly being the second best teams in their section. This week and their game with Lourdes in early 2013 will be some good measuring sticks for them.
This week: Thurs vs Notre Dame, Fri vs TBD, Sat vs TBD

15. [-] International Falls (3-3-2)
The Broncos knock the Prowlers off the rankings this week. They started the year with a two losses then didn't lose their next five following that up with a close loss to Denfeld. They have teams on their schedule to prove to be a force in their section or the state, or show us they aren't one. This week should be a good test.
This week: Thurs vs Osseo, Fri vs Grafton, Sat @ #5 Warroad


Some teams to watch:

Thief River Falls (2-6)
This week: Thurs vs Irondale, Fri vs Chanhassen, Sat vs Crookston

Orono (5-2-1)
This week: Wed vs St Paul Academy, Thurs vs TBD, Fri vs TBD

Mahtomedi (6-2)
This week: Thurs @ Grand Rapids, Fri @ Hibbing, Sat @ Virginia

St Cloud Apollo (6-3)
This week: Wed vs Cathedral, Thurs vs Sauk Rapids-Rice, Fri vs St Cloud Tech

MHGr8ness
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Post by MHGr8ness » Sun Dec 23, 2012 3:28 am

I'm sorry but Hermantown is better than 12. I understand (and you've awknowledged) that it's messy from around 3-12, but does your gut really tel you that there are 11 class A teams better than them? They deserve to be dropped but not that low. Maybe around 6-7?

Princeton is also a nice story but 6 is too high for me. I'm not buying it. They have two big wins, but even last year Princeton (not really even considered for ranking) took down Little Falls twice, once by 4 goals.

6 goals and a loss to St. Francis?
Barely beating Chisago Lakes?
I'm thinking around 10 is more fitting for them right now.

joris016
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Post by joris016 » Sun Dec 23, 2012 4:18 am

MHGr8ness, did you watch the Htown game against Denfeld? Even during the warmups, it appeared that the Hawks weren't in the game. That was a HUGE upset, and their drop for this week to number 12 seems fair.

BobSaget
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Post by BobSaget » Sun Dec 23, 2012 10:13 am

I'm excited to watch Apollo/Cathedral...this rivalry has lacked close games in the last decade and I think Apollo is better than advertised. With Poganski playing in the U17 tourney this week, I anticipate some competitive intra-city games...

HShockeywatcher
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Post by HShockeywatcher » Sun Dec 23, 2012 11:00 am

MHGr8ness, while I totally understand the criticism (as you acknowledge I ackowledged :mrgreen: ), at this point in the season where many of the ranked teams have only played other ranked teams a couple times, how would you, for example, put Princeton at 10?
With their wins over LF and SCC, those two would have to be lower than 10, which puts Breck and Marshall even farther down and leaves a big gap.

Also, Hermantown just lost to a team that they should've beaten easily (if the rankings were correct). They haven't played anyone tough and Denfeld (who beat them) has lost to unranked teams. I could understand putting Warroad just about anywhere above 15 as they haven't beaten any ranked teams and went to OT with TRF.

Right now there are simply too many "team A beat team B and has no other significant losses so they should be ahead of team B" scenarios. Two weeks from now that will all go away and the teams that are high will be the ones that are consistent.
BobSaget wrote:I'm excited to watch Apollo/Cathedral...this rivalry has lacked close games in the last decade and I think Apollo is better than advertised. With Poganski playing in the U17 tourney this week, I anticipate some competitive intra-city games...
This is why I have Apollo as a team to watch. They haven't done anything to justify being ranked yet in my opinion, but they could go 3-0 this coming week and jump into the middle of the ranking as none of their losses are really that bad. I'm excited to see them doing well.


Also, my making this post will be the exact same number of posts on my rankings from last week. I do use feedback from people and the results of my polls, but the feedback I've been getting has been very limited. If people think I did something wrong and I can justify changing it, I will.

Thanks for the comments everyone!

scarlethockey33
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Post by scarlethockey33 » Sun Dec 23, 2012 12:00 pm

Hermantown's drop to 12 is mighty steep to me. Season is still relatively young, and they have the schedule to bring them back up.

Princeton seems high for my taste I understand wins over SCC and Little Falls is the main reason for their placement. With their weak schedule aside from Tartan and round two with Little Falls and SCC. I would expect a drop outside of the top 10 as other teams are playing stronger schedules as the season progresses.

Also a little insight on Mankato West. Good team speed, lacks in size, one real good line, young team, goaltending is still yet to be gauged; both goaltender's varsity experience is minimal to none coming into the season. As for their schedule Lourdes, Hilltopper's Classic (Notre Dame, possibly Duluth Marshall), Northfield and Rochester Mayo are the games to look out for. I've said it already, but the team is young; the skill/talent is there though to be a strong contender. There's always been talks about Mankato West's next best chance to get to the state tournament, and those talks would always lead into talking about this up and coming class. Will be exciting to see how they develop this year. As for ranking West, I think it's fair to say top 15 at best; still a lot to show before deserving much higher.
"Once a Scarlet, Always a Scarlet"

MHGr8ness
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Post by MHGr8ness » Sun Dec 23, 2012 8:04 pm

joris016 wrote:MHGr8ness, did you watch the Htown game against Denfeld? Even during the warmups, it appeared that the Hawks weren't in the game. That was a HUGE upset, and their drop for this week to number 12 seems fair.
They weren't "in" that game? To me that means they lost focus one game and it was a fluke. Should they be lowered for that lapse? Yes. All the way to twelve? No.

MHGr8ness
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Post by MHGr8ness » Sun Dec 23, 2012 8:14 pm

HShockeywatcher wrote:MHGr8ness, while I totally understand the criticism (as you acknowledge I ackowledged :mrgreen: ), at this point in the season where many of the ranked teams have only played other ranked teams a couple times, how would you, for example, put Princeton at 10?
With their wins over LF and SCC, those two would have to be lower than 10, which puts Breck and Marshall even farther down and leaves a big gap.

Also, Hermantown just lost to a team that they should've beaten easily (if the rankings were correct). They haven't played anyone tough and Denfeld (who beat them) has lost to unranked teams. I could understand putting Warroad just about anywhere above 15 as they haven't beaten any ranked teams and went to OT with TRF.

Right now there are simply too many "team A beat team B and has no other significant losses so they should be ahead of team B" scenarios. Two weeks from now that will all go away and the teams that are high will be the ones that are consistent.
BobSaget wrote:I'm excited to watch Apollo/Cathedral...this rivalry has lacked close games in the last decade and I think Apollo is better than advertised. With Poganski playing in the U17 tourney this week, I anticipate some competitive intra-city games...
This is why I have Apollo as a team to watch. They haven't done anything to justify being ranked yet in my opinion, but they could go 3-0 this coming week and jump into the middle of the ranking as none of their losses are really that bad. I'm excited to see them doing well.


Also, my making this post will be the exact same number of posts on my rankings from last week. I do use feedback from people and the results of my polls, but the feedback I've been getting has been very limited. If people think I did something wrong and I can justify changing it, I will.

Thanks for the comments everyone!
I'm looking at things more as a whole and my gut feeling on teams, not so much team A beat B and will have to be above them now.

Hermantown
-beat Sauk Rapids by 13
-Orono by 8
-a decent AA team in Hopkins (beat Cloquet and Chisago by 4)
-both TRF and Virginia by 6
-Rogers by 9

They're basically smashing everyone and have one blemish against a rival. To me, that game appears to be a fluke more than anything.

Princeton
-scraped by Chisago in OT
-lost giving up 6 to St. Francis
-game against Little Falls means less to me since they beat them last year twice when they weren't considered a threat (they seem to have their number)

Basically, I think Hermantown has done better against a tougher schedule, but even if you don't agree with that... if they were to meet head-to-head, would you really bet on Princeton?

HShockeywatcher
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Post by HShockeywatcher » Sun Dec 23, 2012 9:55 pm

MHGr8ness wrote:They're basically smashing everyone and have one blemish against a rival. To me, that game appears to be a fluke more than anything.
"Smashing everyone" can mean a lot of things. As can going to OT.
Hermantown beat Orono, Orono beat Denfeld, Denfeld beat Hermantown.
I wasn't at the game, but I read the comments about it and have heard from multiple people who were. Hermantown may be the better team overall, but it doesn't sound like a fluke.
MHGr8ness wrote:Basically, I think Hermantown has done better against a tougher schedule, but even if you don't agree with that... if they were to meet head-to-head, would you really bet on Princeton?
My rankings are not a predictor of future games, they are a ranking of what has happened in the past. Maybe they'd be different if I were able to see more teams play and could assess them all equally, but I can't. I judge based on who they play and how they do.
But to answer your question; no. I also wouldn't bet on a few of the teams ranked ahead of Breck either, but they are where they are because of the results of the games they have played.

http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS.htm

I don't totally understand the numbers here, but it has Hermantown at 63 and Princeton at 73. Hermantown does play the tougher schedule, yes, I wouldn't deny that, although Princeton has played more better teams thus far. They each have a game someone could call a "fluke" and Princeton has two wins over ranked opponents, Hermantown has none.

Hermantown would still be at #2 if they didn't have a loss now. I would add to this that the #2 team in the state wouldn't have the loss they do.
Bottom line, if they continue to win and prove that loss was a fluke, they'll be back up in no time, but right now I want to go by more than my gut on a team who has only "smashed" lower teams outside of their "fluke loss."

Anyway, thanks for your comments. Hopefully we see some good hockey this week.
Happy holidays!

MHGr8ness
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Post by MHGr8ness » Sun Dec 23, 2012 11:58 pm

HShockeywatcher wrote:
MHGr8ness wrote:They're basically smashing everyone and have one blemish against a rival. To me, that game appears to be a fluke more than anything.
"Smashing everyone" can mean a lot of things. As can going to OT.
Hermantown beat Orono, Orono beat Denfeld, Denfeld beat Hermantown.
I wasn't at the game, but I read the comments about it and have heard from multiple people who were. Hermantown may be the better team overall, but it doesn't sound like a fluke.
MHGr8ness wrote:Basically, I think Hermantown has done better against a tougher schedule, but even if you don't agree with that... if they were to meet head-to-head, would you really bet on Princeton?
My rankings are not a predictor of future games, they are a ranking of what has happened in the past. Maybe they'd be different if I were able to see more teams play and could assess them all equally, but I can't. I judge based on who they play and how they do.
But to answer your question; no. I also wouldn't bet on a few of the teams ranked ahead of Breck either, but they are where they are because of the results of the games they have played.

http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS.htm
So would you say your "rankings" are more similar to standings if they're based strictly on the past?

PuckRanger
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Post by PuckRanger » Mon Dec 24, 2012 2:55 am

HShockeywatcher wrote:"Smashing everyone" can mean a lot of things. As can going to OT.
Hermantown beat Orono, Orono beat Denfeld, Denfeld beat Hermantown.
I wasn't at the game, but I read the comments about it and have heard from multiple people who were. Hermantown may be the better team overall, but it doesn't sound like a fluke.
I've gotta chime in on this one. Hermantown dropping 10 spots is absurd. Dropping a spot or two, I could understand, but ten???

I watched this game and I also watched both teams play Virginia in the past 10 days. I can say without a doubt in my mind from what I have seen with my own two eyes, that Hermantown is far and away the superior team. This one loss was definitely a fluke. Denfeld's goaltender stole that game for them. If they played 4 more times, Hermantown wins all 4, probably with relative ease. As poorly as some people are saying Hermantown played in this game (and I'll admit they weren't as sharp as I have seen them before, but it wasn't horrible), they still dominated time in the offensive zone and outshot the Hunters 46-19. A couple of opportunistic goals, a couple of powerplay goals and one very poor pass by a Hermantown D-man was pretty much all Denfeld had to offer for offense. Denfeld had very little sustained pressure in the offensive zone.

I've also had a chance to see Warroad, Little Falls, Hibbing, International Falls, and Crookston play this year. None of these teams are as deep as or near the skill level of Hermantown. Denfeld is more on the level with Virginia and International Falls, but their goalie will steal a few games. Hermantown is still a top 3 team, probably still as good as it gets behind STA. I am not a big Hermantown fan at all, but I'd be lying if I didn't say I am confident that this will become obvious as time goes by.
HShockeywatcher wrote:My rankings are not a predictor of future games, they are a ranking of what has happened in the past. Maybe they'd be different if I were able to see more teams play and could assess them all equally, but I can't. I judge based on who they play and how they do.
What you are doing then is modified standings, not rankings. Rankings actually should be fairly accurate at predicting future results. That is the whole point of them.

Take this example for instance:
A few years ago, Greenway won 4 games all season, yet their goaltender made 60 some saves in a game against then a top 10 ranked Virginia team and ended up pulling out a 3-2 win. Virginia won 20+ games and went on to the state tournament that year, Greenway lost to Ely in the opening round of section play. But using your logic, at that time (about 2 weeks before playoffs) Greenway should have been ranked one spot ahead of Virginia and Virginia should havve dropped out of the rankings entirely because Greenway wasn't ranked. That's what you just did to Hermantown.

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Post by MNpuckBlog » Mon Dec 24, 2012 10:05 am

Did Princeton move down or is HockeyHub wrong? HockeyHub has them listed as being in 7AA...regardless, good for Princeton to finally climb into the rankings. Call it a fluke, but the win over SCC looks good, as does the LF win. May need to tighten up, giving 6 up to St. Francis.

pekyman
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Post by pekyman » Mon Dec 24, 2012 10:44 am

PuckRanger wrote:
HShockeywatcher wrote:"Smashing everyone" can mean a lot of things. As can going to OT.
Hermantown beat Orono, Orono beat Denfeld, Denfeld beat Hermantown.
I wasn't at the game, but I read the comments about it and have heard from multiple people who were. Hermantown may be the better team overall, but it doesn't sound like a fluke.
I've gotta chime in on this one. Hermantown dropping 10 spots is absurd. Dropping a spot or two, I could understand, but ten???

I watched this game and I also watched both teams play Virginia in the past 10 days. I can say without a doubt in my mind from what I have seen with my own two eyes, that Hermantown is far and away the superior team. This one loss was definitely a fluke. Denfeld's goaltender stole that game for them. If they played 4 more times, Hermantown wins all 4, probably with relative ease. As poorly as some people are saying Hermantown played in this game (and I'll admit they weren't as sharp as I have seen them before, but it wasn't horrible), they still dominated time in the offensive zone and outshot the Hunters 46-19. A couple of opportunistic goals, a couple of powerplay goals and one very poor pass by a Hermantown D-man was pretty much all Denfeld had to offer for offense. Denfeld had very little sustained pressure in the offensive zone.

I've also had a chance to see Warroad, Little Falls, Hibbing, International Falls, and Crookston play this year. None of these teams are as deep as or near the skill level of Hermantown. Denfeld is more on the level with Virginia and International Falls, but their goalie will steal a few games. Hermantown is still a top 3 team, probably still as good as it gets behind STA. I am not a big Hermantown fan at all, but I'd be lying if I didn't say I am confident that this will become obvious as time goes by.
HShockeywatcher wrote:My rankings are not a predictor of future games, they are a ranking of what has happened in the past. Maybe they'd be different if I were able to see more teams play and could assess them all equally, but I can't. I judge based on who they play and how they do.
What you are doing then is modified standings, not rankings. Rankings actually should be fairly accurate at predicting future results. That is the whole point of them.

Take this example for instance:
A few years ago, Greenway won 4 games all season, yet their goaltender made 60 some saves in a game against then a top 10 ranked Virginia team and ended up pulling out a 3-2 win. Virginia won 20+ games and went on to the state tournament that year, Greenway lost to Ely in the opening round of section play. But using your logic, at that time (about 2 weeks before playoffs) Greenway should have been ranked one spot ahead of Virginia and Virginia should havve dropped out of the rankings entirely because Greenway wasn't ranked. That's what you just did to Hermantown.
Excellent post and spot on. =D> =D> =D> =D>

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Post by HShockeywatcher » Mon Dec 24, 2012 12:32 pm

So Breck loses one game [to a ranked team], drops from 2 at the start of the season to 8 now despite beating a ranked team and no one cares?
Then Hermantown loses one game [to an unranked team], drops from 3 at the start of the season to 12 now, hasn't beaten any ranked teams and everyone gets their panties in a bundle?

6 spots is fine if you've beaten and been beaten by someone ranked. But 9 spots isn't if you've been beaten by and beaten only unranked teams?
#-o

Also surprised that no one has even commented on Warroad rising so much from the beginning of the season...
PuckRanger wrote:What you are doing then is modified standings, not rankings. Rankings actually should be fairly accurate at predicting future results. That is the whole point of them.
This may be a personal definition, but it is not one that the USCHO, NCAA or any other major organizations I can find share. Just about everywhere I saw with a google search as well used the words standings and rankings interchangably.

Everyone from karl to the NCAA to ESPN to anyone else that creates rankings uses the results of past games to do them. Yes, how teams do in the past generally help determine how they will do in the future, but not always. Vegas, for example, often predicts that teams who are lower ranked will win games.
NCAA basketball and football (and even hockey) are a prime examples of this; teams with good records often get ranked high because of their record despite their competition. There are often times [higher] ranked teams in all three sports are predicted to lose to "worse" teams.

So what do you do if you actually go to games and know multiples wins were "fluke" wins? Do you simply ignore them?
Aren't "flukes" generally the result of one (or both) team playing better or worse than usual?
PuckRanger wrote:Take this example for instance:
A few years ago, Greenway won 4 games all season, yet their goaltender made 60 some saves in a game against then a top 10 ranked Virginia team and ended up pulling out a 3-2 win. Virginia won 20+ games and went on to the state tournament that year, Greenway lost to Ely in the opening round of section play. But using your logic, at that time (about 2 weeks before playoffs) Greenway should have been ranked one spot ahead of Virginia and Virginia should havve dropped out of the rankings entirely because Greenway wasn't ranked. That's what you just did to Hermantown.
Did you actually read everything I've said in this thread and conclude this from it?
Hermantown plays an amazing Class A schedule, as they do every year.
Hermantown's top opponents are later in their schedule, as they are every year.
They simply haven't played anyone ranked yet. If you ignore the preseason ranking and base rankings solely on results (which I do and have always done), then I have no way of knowing much. The team they lost to also isn't one with no losses and wins against bad teams, they have lost to teams Hermantown has beaten for example.

This isn't the end of the season. It isn't clearly a "fluke" or "bad game" based on a season of results. I have never dropped a team many spots late in the season based on the results of one game and I won't be starting this season.
Early in the season, though, it could indicate where they were ranked was too high. Tought to know. Good thing the season isn't over now.

Additionally, this early in the season I put the teams ahead of other teams they have beaten if possible. It's pretty easy to justify Denfeld ahead of Hermantown now, but pretty hard to justify Denfeld being much higher in the rankings.

Instead of simply telling me that I did something wrong, offering a solution and why I should go against how I've always done things would be great. Where would you have team X and why?

Thanks for all of the discussion this week! Happy holidays everyone!

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Post by MHGr8ness » Mon Dec 24, 2012 12:54 pm

HShockeywatcher wrote:So Breck loses one game [to a ranked team], drops from 2 at the start of the season to 8 now despite beating a ranked team and no one cares?
Then Hermantown loses one game [to an unranked team], drops from 3 at the start of the season to 12 now, hasn't beaten any ranked teams and everyone gets their panties in a bundle?

6 spots is fine if you've beaten and been beaten by someone ranked. But 9 spots isn't if you've been beaten by and beaten only unranked teams?
#-o

Also surprised that no one has even commented on Warroad rising so much from the beginning of the season...
PuckRanger wrote:What you are doing then is modified standings, not rankings. Rankings actually should be fairly accurate at predicting future results. That is the whole point of them.
This may be a personal definition, but it is not one that the USCHO, NCAA or any other major organizations I can find share. Just about everywhere I saw with a google search as well used the words standings and rankings interchangably.

Everyone from karl to the NCAA to ESPN to anyone else that creates rankings uses the results of past games to do them. Yes, how teams do in the past generally help determine how they will do in the future, but not always. Vegas, for example, often predicts that teams who are lower ranked will win games.
NCAA basketball and football (and even hockey) are a prime examples of this; teams with good records often get ranked high because of their record despite their competition. There are often times [higher] ranked teams in all three sports are predicted to lose to "worse" teams.

So what do you do if you actually go to games and know multiples wins were "fluke" wins? Do you simply ignore them?
Aren't "flukes" generally the result of one (or both) team playing better or worse than usual?
PuckRanger wrote:Take this example for instance:
A few years ago, Greenway won 4 games all season, yet their goaltender made 60 some saves in a game against then a top 10 ranked Virginia team and ended up pulling out a 3-2 win. Virginia won 20+ games and went on to the state tournament that year, Greenway lost to Ely in the opening round of section play. But using your logic, at that time (about 2 weeks before playoffs) Greenway should have been ranked one spot ahead of Virginia and Virginia should havve dropped out of the rankings entirely because Greenway wasn't ranked. That's what you just did to Hermantown.
Did you actually read everything I've said in this thread and conclude this from it?
Hermantown plays an amazing Class A schedule, as they do every year.
Hermantown's top opponents are later in their schedule, as they are every year.
They simply haven't played anyone ranked yet. If you ignore the preseason ranking and base rankings solely on results (which I do and have always done), then I have no way of knowing much. The team they lost to also isn't one with no losses and wins against bad teams, they have lost to teams Hermantown has beaten for example.

This isn't the end of the season. It isn't clearly a "fluke" or "bad game" based on a season of results. I have never dropped a team many spots late in the season based on the results of one game and I won't be starting this season.
Early in the season, though, it could indicate where they were ranked was too high. Tought to know. Good thing the season isn't over now.

Additionally, this early in the season I put the teams ahead of other teams they have beaten if possible. It's pretty easy to justify Denfeld ahead of Hermantown now, but pretty hard to justify Denfeld being much higher in the rankings.

Instead of simply telling me that I did something wrong, offering a solution and why I should go against how I've always done things would be great. Where would you have team X and why?

Thanks for all of the discussion this week! Happy holidays everyone!
I have offered where I would put them and why multiple times now.

I also disagree that it's easy to justify Denfeld ahead of Hermantown. I bet every site, source, and almost every individual person will have Hermantown ahead by a substantial amount.

DKS1962
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Post by DKS1962 » Tue Dec 25, 2012 1:32 am

Who cares about the privates.recruiter city. Rank the small A schools. That is what A is intended. Small communities putting some quality kids on the ice with not a lot of depth.
That's why some posts chastise A.
I love small out state communities. Home town kids. Multi-sport athletes, not the Metro opportunities at skating all year.
I always cheer for the small home town associations.
Nobody moves in to play hockey but kids leave to greener pastures that don't always justify leaving.

goldy313
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Post by goldy313 » Tue Dec 25, 2012 9:07 am

PuckRanger wrote:
HShockeywatcher wrote:My rankings are not a predictor of future games, they are a ranking of what has happened in the past. Maybe they'd be different if I were able to see more teams play and could assess them all equally, but I can't. I judge based on who they play and how they do.
What you are doing then is modified standings, not rankings. Rankings actually should be fairly accurate at predicting future results. That is the whole point of them.
No they shouldn't. In NCAA basketball Kentucky started the season in the top 7, they are now unranked because they lost to #1 Duke, Baylor, and Notre Dame. Duke and Notre Dame were legitimate losses, Baylor not so much. Nobody expects Kentucky to be unranked in a month, nobody would say Kentucky deserves to be a top 20 team based on what has happened this season either.

Look at Minnesota, they're ranked #11, does anyone really believe in the future Minnesota will be #11? They've played 1 team in the top 25 and were beaten by 18. They play #19 Michigan State next and guess who is favored? Not the #11 team which would be the case if rankings were indications of future results.

Rankings are a snapshot, in two weeks they'll be completely different because they're a snap shot not a predictor of fututre results.

Rankings are based on the past, period.

HShockeywatcher
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Post by HShockeywatcher » Tue Dec 25, 2012 3:04 pm

MHGr8ness wrote:
HShockeywatcher wrote: Instead of simply telling me that I did something wrong, offering a solution and why I should go against how I've always done things would be great. Where would you have team X and why?

Thanks for all of the discussion this week! Happy holidays everyone!
I have offered where I would put them and why multiple times now.
I guess one is now multiple; you said Hermantown "maybe around 6-7" and said Princeton "around 10."

That doesn't touch on the why or the why I should do things differently than I have for all the years I have been ranking:

If you put Princeton at 10, where do you put Little Falls and Cathedral?
If lower, what do you do with the three vacancies left in the top 10?
If higher, how do you justify having a team with two top 10 wins lower than both the teams it beat?

I rank teams based on the results of the games they play so as to not show bias toward one team or another; I can't see everyone play. What has Hermantown done with their schedule to justify a place at 6 or 7? And where would you put Denfeld?

As you will see as you answer the questions, it is a little more complicating than just "move team X down 3 spots because they lost."

Merry Christmas!

Mite-dad
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Post by Mite-dad » Tue Dec 25, 2012 4:12 pm

Just switch Hermantown and Warroad and it should be about right.

MHGr8ness
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Post by MHGr8ness » Tue Dec 25, 2012 6:14 pm

HShockeywatcher wrote:
MHGr8ness wrote:
HShockeywatcher wrote: Instead of simply telling me that I did something wrong, offering a solution and why I should go against how I've always done things would be great. Where would you have team X and why?

Thanks for all of the discussion this week! Happy holidays everyone!
I have offered where I would put them and why multiple times now.
I guess one is now multiple; you said Hermantown "maybe around 6-7" and said Princeton "around 10."

That doesn't touch on the why or the why I should do things differently than I have for all the years I have been ranking:

If you put Princeton at 10, where do you put Little Falls and Cathedral?
If lower, what do you do with the three vacancies left in the top 10?
If higher, how do you justify having a team with two top 10 wins lower than both the teams it beat?

I rank teams based on the results of the games they play so as to not show bias toward one team or another; I can't see everyone play. What has Hermantown done with their schedule to justify a place at 6 or 7? And where would you put Denfeld?

As you will see as you answer the questions, it is a little more complicating than just "move team X down 3 spots because they lost."

Merry Christmas!
I offered where once. I listed reasons multiple times... go up and check. Just as I said.

urban iceman
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Post by urban iceman » Tue Dec 25, 2012 8:30 pm

DKS1962 wrote:Who cares about the privates.recruiter city. Rank the small A schools. That is what A is intended. Small communities putting some quality kids on the ice with not a lot of depth.
That's why some posts chastise A.
I love small out state communities. Home town kids. Multi-sport athletes, not the Metro opportunities at skating all year.
I always cheer for the small home town associations.
Nobody moves in to play hockey but kids leave to greener pastures that don't always justify leaving.
HERE HERE!! I couldn't agree more.

scorekeeper
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Post by scorekeeper » Tue Dec 25, 2012 8:32 pm

DKS1962 wrote:Who cares about the privates.recruiter city. Rank the small A schools. That is what A is intended. Small communities putting some quality kids on the ice with not a lot of depth.
That's why some posts chastise A.
I love small out state communities. Home town kids. Multi-sport athletes, not the Metro opportunities at skating all year.
I always cheer for the small home town associations.
Nobody moves in to play hockey but kids leave to greener pastures that don't always justify leaving.
TJ Oshie?

urban iceman
Posts: 388
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2010 8:40 am

Post by urban iceman » Tue Dec 25, 2012 8:36 pm

scorekeeper wrote:
DKS1962 wrote:Who cares about the privates.recruiter city. Rank the small A schools. That is what A is intended. Small communities putting some quality kids on the ice with not a lot of depth.
That's why some posts chastise A.
I love small out state communities. Home town kids. Multi-sport athletes, not the Metro opportunities at skating all year.
I always cheer for the small home town associations.
Nobody moves in to play hockey but kids leave to greener pastures that don't always justify leaving.
TJ Oshie?
He started out playing Roller Hockey, I doubt any Privates had him on the recruiting radar.

HShockeywatcher
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Post by HShockeywatcher » Tue Dec 25, 2012 9:25 pm

MHGr8ness wrote:I offered where once. I listed reasons multiple times... go up and check. Just as I said.
So you offered where once, you suggested why once (as well as gaving a list of their season results) and have yet to suggest why I should change up how I have done things since I started the rankings multiple years ago to suit your wants...

Multiple sounds good to me =D>

scorekeeper
Posts: 569
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2011 1:08 am

Post by scorekeeper » Tue Dec 25, 2012 9:32 pm

urban iceman wrote:
scorekeeper wrote:
DKS1962 wrote:Who cares about the privates.recruiter city. Rank the small A schools. That is what A is intended. Small communities putting some quality kids on the ice with not a lot of depth.
That's why some posts chastise A.
I love small out state communities. Home town kids. Multi-sport athletes, not the Metro opportunities at skating all year.
I always cheer for the small home town associations.
Nobody moves in to play hockey but kids leave to greener pastures that don't always justify leaving.
TJ Oshie?
He started out playing Roller Hockey, I doubt any Privates had him on the recruiting radar.
Good recruiters did. There was a good buzz on him through 10 years playing hockey in USA Hockey, most notably as an impact player in USA Hockey's Tier 1 AAA Tournaments with the Northwest Admirals through PeeWee and Bantam.

His family thought he would get the most exposure in Warroad, Minnesota, where they had relatives.

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