Class A Rankings 12-30-12

[HShockeywatcher]

Lots of fun tournaments this past week. Very few head to head games still. So, there is a lot that is still a guessing game at this point. Many of the top teams end up playing each other through out the next month or so; by the end of the season I'm sure most will agree on things. Between now and then, I'd appreciate some feedback.

A couple comments:
-There could be a case made for the teams #2-#6 to be in any order, or even for #2 to be #1.
-#7 and #8 are the only two other teams I'm convinced deserve to be ranked, not only from results, but from comments I've been given.
-#9 thru #15 are the next 7 that deserve to be ranked in my opinion, in the order I think is best. But it's not perfect. I could see a case made for any of the teams I have on the outside as high as #9.

Thanks for all the feedback; keep it coming. Happy New Year!

1. [1] Saint Thomas Academy (8-1-1)
The Cadets lost a shootout to rival Hill-Murray after tying in the Schwan Cup Championship game. They had a great week with typical defensive Cadet hockey; in 3 games 2 were 1 goal games and 2 went to OT. Beating Edina was a huge accomplishment, though they followed that up with playing Breck very close, showing that a good goalie/defense can keep a game close with them.
This week: Thurs @ Mahtomedi, Sat vs Tartan

2. [2] East Grand Forks (9-0-2)
The Green Wave are an interesting story and still hard to rank. There could be legitimate arguments made for having them as high as #1 because of being the lone undefeated team in the state or as low as #6 because of their lack of competition. They play one of the teams who tied them, Red River, two more times this season, including this coming week.
This week: Thurs vs Grand Forks Red River, Sat vs Lake of the Woods

3. [2] Breck (6-2)
Breck played an amazing Schwan Cup, with a win over East, a close loss to St Thomas and followed that up with a tie with Burnsville. They had three close wins and a loss before the holiday, so maybe they’ve figured things out. They hop back to close to where they started the season because of shutting out a good AA team and playing the Cadets very close. They play 10 of their next 13 games on the road and play Lourdes, Totino and Moorhead in the next two weeks, which will be great to see if they can stay on top.
This week: Thurs @ Rochester Lourdes, Sat vs Providence Academy

4. [12] Hermantown (8-1-1)
The Hawks get two wins and a tie against Eagan this week, which is why they bounce back into the mix in the top after their drop last week. I’m not sold on the Hawks being as good as many claim they are. Despite the offensive showing, they have allowed 3 or more goals in 4 (40%) of their games so far, and who 3 of those teams are should be alarming. Starting with a 5-0 lead and ending up tying a team is not a good sign; I’m concerned about defense as they go forward and play some top teams in the remainder of their schedule. Maybe their offense will be good enough to make up for the defense; can they win at home against Marshall this week?
This week: Thurs vs Duluth Marshall, Sat vs International Falls

5. [3] Totino-Grace (6-1-1)
While most other teams were playing three more games, the Eagles were sitting Idle, so there isn’t much to say about them. They make the trek up to Duluth this coming week to play a good Marshall team this Saturday. Much will be learned about both of these teams and likely where each should be ranked. Nothing is being held against them, but they are dropping because of their crushing loss to Holy Family, while those ahead of them have wins/ties to top AA teams.
This week: Sat @ Duluth Marshall

6. [10] Duluth Marshall (7-4)
The only thing disappointing about the Hilltopper Holiday Classic for Duluth Marshall was not getting to play any MN teams. Aside from that, they dismantled some of the top teams from WI while coming in second in their home tournament. Aside of the game against Superior next week, all of the Hilltoppers’ next 8 games are against ranked opponents. They have the potential to climb as high as #1 in the next few weeks, or the potential to fall out of the Top 10. Marshall clearly has offense and defense.
This week: Thurs @ Hermantown, Sat vs Totino-Grace

7. [4] Rochester Lourdes (7-2)
After getting beat by St Thomas to start the season, the Eagles jumped after their home win over Cathedral. After another loss and some question marks around Cathedral, there is less definitive about Lourdes. They host Breck this week and play both Mankato West and Delano next week, so we’ll see more of what they can do in the coming weeks. There could be serious arguments made for them to be lower, but slipping 3 spots after going 2-1 in their holiday tournament is good for now. Their next 6 games are against notable teams, so how good they really are will be sorted out in the next month.
This week: Thurs vs Breck, Sat @ Eau Claire Memorial

8. [9] Little Falls (9-2)
As the Fliers go 2-1 in their Holiday Invitational, Little Falls is leading the teams that are outside the top teams. They started the season beating three 7A teams, got upset by Princeton and beat Rogers. Allowing 3 goals to Hutchinson is alarming, as well as being shut out to a team like Mound-Westonka. Of their remaining 14 games, only 4 will likely not be dominating wins by Little Falls; Hermantown, Cathedral x2 and Tech. If they drop any more games outside of the 4 notable teams on their schedule, we may have to forget about their early season wins and drop them out of the rankings.
This week: Thurs vs Northern Lakes

9. [-] Hibbing (6-6)
The Bluejackets had a slow start to the season but have won 4 of their last 5 games. An early OT loss to Marshall shows they can play. They play 8 of their next 9 games on the road, which will be a great test for sectional play. It will be interesting to see how their season progresses.
This week: Fri @ Rochester Mayo, Sat @ Albert Lea

10. [-] Mahtomedi (7-4)
The Zephyrs have started the season well with a 1 goal loss to Hibbing recently and an earlier OT loss to Breck. Tartan will give them a run for their money, but Mahtomedi will likely end up getting 3rd place in the Classic Suburban Conference. In addition to their conference schedule, they play Totino-Grace at home in just over a month.
This week: Thurs vs Saint Thomas Academy

11. [11] Denfeld (9-4)
Before their loss in the final of the Heritage Holiday Classic, the Hunters won 5 in a row, including 3 in a row over Virginia, Hermantown and International Falls. The Hunters play a schedule that will still allow them the ability to get the top seed in section7A and play many games on the road. They have the schedule to prove to be a top 5 team by the end of the season; we will see.
This week: Sat @ Buffalo

12. [5] Warroad (8-2-1)
The Warriors fall after 2-0-1 in their own holiday tournament, tying International Falls in the conclusion. While they don’t have any flashy wins on their schedule, they have done what only half of the teams ahead of them have done: not lost in games they should’ve won. Their two losses are to Rapids and EGF. With another game against both TRF and EGF, they likely control their own destiny for section seeding in a section where there is a huge advantage to be #1 over being #2.
This week: Fri @ St Cloud Cathedral, Sat @ St Cloud Tech

13. [15] International Falls (4-3-4)
After two losses to start the season, the Broncos have lost one of their last 9 games. It is interesting to see that they tied both Eveleth and Virginia, yet also tied Warroad and beat Thief River Falls. They will likely fall back to to .500 this week but have a mostly mediocre, and mainly sectional, schedule for the rest of the season. They aren’t a team I’d expect to make it out of section 7A but the only game I’d bet against them in is the final. They likely won’t get the top seed, but the #2 seed seems to be up for grabs.
This week: Sat @ Hermantown

14. [-] Thief River Falls (5-6)
The Prowlers lost 1 goal games to both St Thomas and Breck in the state tournament to get 4th place at State and had high hopes for this season. They had 8 players with over 10 points last season; 6 of them graduated, as well as their starting goalie. Their goalie this year is a junior who had a 2.04 GAA in 9 games last year, which included their games with Totino and Hermantown. This squad seems to be good but not great, but considering that they have only 6 seniors as well as 5 freshmen, the future looks bright. They lost to Warroad by 1, who also lost to section favorite by 1; this season isn’t lost. They will likely end this week .500; can they turn it around?
This week: Thurs vs Kittson Central

15. [7] St. Cloud Cathedral (8-4)
The Crusaders do have an upset win over Breck, but they also have losses to EGF, Lourdes, Princeton and now Tech. They play a good schedule and have an opportunity to get back into the swing of things. They will likely be a top 3 seed in section 5A, and, just like with Hermantown and Princetown, which of those seeds they get will be the result of how they do against the other two.
This week: Fri vs Warroad, Sat vs Holy Family Catholic


On the outside looking in:

[6] Princeton (11-1)
A loss to Sartell allowing 6 goals tells us the fairy tale is over, but nothing more. Whether the wins were flukes or not, the Tigers did upset both Little Falls and Cathedral in the same week. They play both Cathedral and Little Falls again this season, as well as Rogers, Tartan and Delano. This team has the #2 seed in section 5A and it is theirs to lose. Do they go to sections with more than 20 wins?
This week: Thurs @ Pine City

[14] Mankato West (11-2)
The Scarlets are an interesting story this year, and after beating a Delano team 9-4 that lost to Breck by 2 goals, they are clearly capable of playing with good teams. It would be nice to see more difficult games on their schedule though. They play Lourdes in two weeks, Mayo (the only MN team who’s beaten them) in a months and no one else who has a legitimate shot at beating them. Even if they lose to Lourdes, they could go into sectional play with 21 or 22 wins as the #2 seed in section 1A with a shot at making it to state.
This week: Idle

[13] Delano (8-4)
The Tigers are a team that is tough to access. They have 2 goal losses to both Breck and Cathedral as well as a loss to West, but no quality wins on their schedule. They play a good Wright County Conference schedule, as well as Lourdes and will be well prepared for another shot at Breck in the section 2A final.
This week: Thurs vs Holy Family Catholic

Orono (7-3-1)
With a win over Denfeld to start the season, the Spartans have put together some nice wins despite not playing many quality opponents. After this week they conclude their season with Wright County Conference play and it will be a three team race with them, Delano and Holy Family. The second seed in section 2A will likely be the Tigers or the Spartans.
This week: Thurs vs Hutchinson, Sat @ Hopkins

[Iranger33]

Little Falls went 2-1 in there home tournament, losing against Mound 2 to 0

[DKS1962]

I appreciate the time and effort you put into the rankings but Little Falls lost to Mound West Tonka 2-0.

[defense]

Hey hshw,
very nice. But, don't apologize for EGF, they deserve to be that high. I also wouldn't put them 1, but only because they need to prove they can beat the all stars of the tc area.

[goldy313]

Past years would allow a private school bias but this year I don't think that 's the case. The lack if any respect you give Mankato West is striking, they beat New Prague by more than Lourdes, lose to Wisconsin's #1 team by one on a late goal, then ND beats Duluth Marshall by 3 yet still West can't get a break over a private school.

[MHGr8ness]

I think the top of the rankings are as accurate as can be at this point. By the way after the Schwan Cup I don't see anyone taking #1 away from the Cadets. However doing class A as a whole is very difficult because of the different schedules, so I think you've done a pretty good job here. I would tweak a few things though and I don't need a comment back telling my why, I'm just saying my thoughts. I wouldn't have knocked Princeton off the map completely just yet, I wouldn't lower Cathedral so much considering they were without their best (and Division I) player, I wouldn't lower Warroad that far either because it was just a tie to a pretty good team and I would raise Mankato West up a bit. It's all just speculation and that's what I would go with. Don't need to defend yourself. Thanks for giving us something to read.

[HShockeywatcher]

Little Falls went 2-1 in there home tournament, losing against Mound 2 to 0

Thank you for the note. I have made the change in the record and the comments. With the teams they beat at the beginning of the season (notably Hibbing) it makes sense to still keep them above the group outside the top 7 in my opinion.

[Hockey North]

Past years would allow a private school bias but this year I don't think that 's the case. The lack if any respect you give Mankato West is striking, they beat New Prague by more than Lourdes, lose to Wisconsin's #1 team by one on a late goal, then ND beats Duluth Marshall by 3 yet still West can't get a break over a private school.

Edit: No similar games, my bad.
Marshall played ND without one of their top forwards and a D.

[OU812]

First of all, HS HockeyWatcher, thanks for all the work on these rankings. They are a blast to read.

As Mankato West fans, we had a good time in Duluth for the DMarshall tournament. Having said that, I too would probably rank West higher overall than you did, based on the West victories over top 20 teams New Prague and Delano (6-2 and 9-4), but the teams you have ahead of West on your list have played well too. West gets Lourdes next Tuesday so that will tell a lot.

As for comparing DMarshall and West and how they both did against Wisc #1 team Notre Dame (West lost 2-1, DM lost 6-3), I thought ND was the best team West played all season, bar none. Both DM and West were tied with ND in the third period, so how you look at the final score probably depends a bit on what team you root for.

Overall, thanks HSHW, and please keep it up.

Btw, North guy, Mankato West did not play Breck this year.

[HShockeywatcher]

Past years would allow a private school bias but this year I don't think that 's the case. The lack if any respect you give Mankato West is striking, they beat New Prague by more than Lourdes, lose to Wisconsin's #1 team by one on a late goal, then ND beats Duluth Marshall by 3 yet still West can't get a break over a private school.

So Marshall lost by one goal to Breck (a game they could have easily won) and Mankato lost to Breck by 2. Marshall played ND without one of their top forwards and a D.

West has not played Breck.

West's various rankings:
3 - QRF
8 - KRACH
9 - FTP
13 - USCHO
16 - LPH
16 - PageStat
17 - HUB

Last week my poll was about where West should be ranked. Of the 21 votes, 38% were for 11-15 and 52% were for unranked.

No bias, just hard to rank with their schedule. They are similar to Little Falls of the past and Princeton now. It'd similarly be difficult to argue with a top 5 ranking considering that the two teams they have lost to are a 9-2 AA team and a WI team.
They have two skaters with more than 30 points (#3 and #7 in state in scoring), they're both juniors, and neither goalie is a senior. In fact, none of their top 7 scorers are seniors. That said, they only have 9 skaters with more than 3 points...
With only 3 seniors logging points this season, their future definitely has promise, especially because many of the players are freshmen and sophomores.

They are idle this week. They could benefit from losses from above, or comments from others who have seen them play.
What scares me about them is their GA. Despite racking up wins, they allowed 3 to Albert Lea, 4 to Faribault, 4 to Delano and 3 to a team Marshall allowed 1 to.
It's not an exact science, but if these numbers were less it would be easier to have them much higher with a schedule that has a total of two quality MN opponents all season.

[OU812]

Once again, nice job HShw. Thanks. Looking forward to the rest of the season.

[HShockeywatcher]

Breck beats Lourdes and Hermantown beats Marshall. Any analysis/feedback/thoughts from people on games they have seen or rankings?

Thanks