AA Ranking Update for 2/24/13 (State Seeding)

[karl(east)]

Here’s a quick ranking update that omits all eliminated teams; this is largely for State seeding purposes. Your remaining 20 AA teams:

1. Hill-Murray (23-2-1/4AA)
-The Pioneers steamrolled St. Paul Como Park, and now head on to a somewhat more serious challenge, as they face Stillwater. The top seed is theirs to lose.
2. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (22-5/6AA)
-Beat upset-minded Eden Prairie, and will defend their 6AA title against Wayzata, with whom they split two games just after the holidays.
3. Duluth East (23-4/7AA)
-Shut down Cloquet, and will face Grand Rapids on Thursday.
4. Eagan (23-3-1/3AA)
-The Wildcats marched through their first section games, and only Zach Driscoll and Eastview stand between them and a third consecutive trip to State.
5. Edina (21-6/2AA)
-Survived a scare against Bloomington Jefferson, and once again will face Burnsville in the section final. They should be safe in earning a seed at State if they win, but will need some help to get out of the late-night game.
6. Wayzata (20-7/6AA)
-A big win over Minnetonka has the Trojans in the section final against Benilde. If they win that one they’d certainly be seeded at State, but with three losses to Edina this season, they might need some upsets of other teams to go any higher than #5.
7. Blaine (20-5-1/5AA)
-Took care of business against Osseo; Champlin Park is up next, and after that they’ll finally face a big test. They’re on the outside looking in for a seed at State, but a loss from Hill, East, Eagan, or Edina would probably get them there.
8. Grand Rapids (19-4-3/7AA)
-Pulled out the OT victory over Elk River, setting up a grudge match with Duluth East. Like Blaine, they’d need another upset of a team ahead of them to be seeded.
9. Centennial (20-4-2/5AA)
-Beat Coon Rapids 4-1 in their quarterfinal; the goals have not been coming in bunches lately, but given their strong record, a section title and a couple upsets ahead of them could let them snag a seed at State.
10. Burnsville (17-9-1/2AA)
-In one of the few instances where the rankings disagreed with the seeds, higher-ranked but lower-seeded Burnsville pulled out a 2-1 win over Prior Lake. They now get a third straight final against their bête noire over the past few years—Edina, to whom they lost 3-2 in early January. I would have them jump over Centennial in the seeding pecking order if they beat Edina, but reasonable minds can disagree.
11. White Bear Lake (16-9-1/4AA)
-Had a bit of an adventure against St. Paul North, but they pulled it out in the end. They can’t take Roseville for granted either, but with Tartan going down, there’s not much doubt that they should be the #2 team in this section.
12. Maple Grove (16-11/5AA)
-Beat Irondale, as expected; now we’ll see if they can build on that late-season win over Blaine and head back to the section final.
13. Eastview (17-9-1/3AA)
-Benefitted from Apple Valley’s first round upset of Cretin, and shut out their crosstown rival to go to a section title game for the first time since 2004.
14. Moorhead (13-11-2/8AA)
-A strong win over Bemidji has the Spuds in pretty good shape heading into their sixteenth straight section final—an astonishing feat regardless of the strength of their section.
15. Brainerd (21-5/8AA)
-Got by Roseau to make their second straight section title game. While it won’t be easy for the Warriors, this may be the best shot a team has had at breaking through in 8AA in quite a long time.
16. Stillwater (10-14-2/4AA)
-Edged past Mounds View and will now take a crack at Hill-Murray in the 4AA semis.
17. Roseville (12-12-2/4AA)
-The Raiders scored an upset of Tartan, earning a shot at White Bear, whom they beat 4-3 in December before losing 6-3 in the final game of the season. It will be an uphill battle, but they have a shot at a second straight 4AA title game.
18. Lakeville North (10-16-1/1AA)
-It hasn’t exactly been pretty, but 1AA’s top seed is off to its eighth consecutive section final. If they play the way they did in the second regular season meeting, they’ll be in good shape.
19. Lakeville South (11-16/1AA)
-Slipped past Mayo to set up another all-Lakeville section final. If they play the way they did in the first regular season meeting, they’ll be in good shape.
20. Champlin Park (10-13-3/5AA)
-Scraped past Anoka in double OT and will now face Blaine in the semifinals.

[almostashappy]

With karl's rankings and comments, a Wayzata upset of BSM would put them at #5 seed, playing #4 Edina (assuming higher seeds hold serve). Both are Lake Conference teams.

There will also be at least 2 SSC teams at the Tourney (three, if B'ville upsets Edina), and the potential for an all-SSC first round game (if Eagan wins, and gains the three seed or higher).

Somebody once told me that first round pairings from the same conference are avoided when the "blind" seeds are drawn. I can understand the reasoning if this was the case, but it would run against the idea of impartial seeding and blind draws. So can anyone out there confirm this assertion, or point to counter-examples?

[Nostalgic Nerd]

15. Brainerd (21-5/8AA)
-Got by Roseau to make their second straight section title game. While it won’t be easy for the Warriors, this may be the best shot a team has had at breaking through in 8AA in quite a long time.

I'd like to see it happen, along with Burnsville, but I doubt it will happen.

[Nuts&Bolts]

We don't still believe in "blind" seed drawings do we? This last week before St. Paul will be very interesting. Something tells me at least one if not two of Karls top 5 may fall.

[D3Referee]

2. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (22-5/6AA)
-Beat upset-minded Eden Prairie, and will defend their 6AA title against Wayzata, with whom they split two games just after the holidays.

Just a reminder ... Dingman didn't play in the BSM win. When Wayzata and BSM met in the Championship Game at St. Louis Park, Dingman not only played, but was the MVP, stopping 39 of 40 BSM shots in a 7-1 Wayzata blowout. Trojans will win this game.

4. Eagan (23-3-1/3AA)
-The Wildcats marched through their first section games, and only Joey Driscoll and Eastview stand between them and a third consecutive trip to State.

Second time this week I've seen this kids name get butchered. On the Secton 3AA Preview on Hockey Hub they call him Jake Driscoll. They also referred to him as Zachary Driscoll. If you happen to meet him , or are talking about him in conversation ... his actual name (or at least the one he goes by) is Zach Driscoll.

[Nuts&Bolts]

I like the name Zach better so Eastview should move up 3 spots in the rankings because of this. Thanks for the correction?!?!?

[D3Referee]

I like the name Zach better so Eastview should move up 3 spots in the rankings because of this. Thanks for the correction?!?!?

Not a problem. Easy to make corrections for Karl, cuz he doesnt make many mistakes.

Trying to correct all your posts however .... now that's a full time job

[chester1991]

Karl,
Who is St.Paul North? Do you know that it's North St.Paul? Do you know that North ST Paul is a suburb? This is not a high school in St.Paul.

[karl(east)]

A couple of edits made to Zach Driscoll's name ( ), the number of times Wayzata lost to Edina, and Roseville's section. Playoff hockey is eating at my editing skills, apparently.

I did remember the Wayzata goalie situation in the Benilde games, as mentioned in my blurb on the thread for the 6AA title game. We'll see if Dingmann can do it again.

[D3Referee]

A couple of edits made to Zach Driscoll's name ( ), the number of times Wayzata lost to Edina, and Roseville's section. Playoff hockey is eating at my editing skills, apparently.

I did remember the Wayzata goalie situation in the Benilde games, as mentioned in my blurb on the thread for the 6AA title game. We'll see if Dingmann can do it again.

Hair of the Dog Karl . That'll fix ya up

[D3Referee]

It looks like we'll have as many as 7 Class AA 20+ win teams at the Excel. Section 1AA is the only section remaining without a 20+ win team. 6 of the other sections have lower seeds with 20+ games already in Section 8AA, Brainerd has 21 wins already.

I'll go out on a limb and seed the State Tournament from these remaining teams

#1 Hill Murray 24-2-1 Section 4AA Champion
vs.
#- Lakeville North 11-16-1 Section 1AA Champion

(Upset Special - North will be too physical for HM)


#2 Duluth East 24-4 Section 7AA Champion
vs
#- Blaine 22-5-1 Section 5AA Champion

(East defense to much for scrappy Bengals)


#3 Eagan 24-3-1 Section 3AA Champion
vs
#- Brainerd 22-4 Section 8AA Champion

Brainerd will get overpowered by high octane Cats


#4 Edina 22-6 Section 2AA Champion
vs
#5 Wayzata 21-7 Section 6AA Champion

4th time is a charm for Trojans

Semi's

#- Lakeville North 12-16-1 Section 1AA Champion
#5 Wayzata 22-7 Section 6AA Champion

(North gets an up close look at a real elite defense)

#2 Duluth East 25-4 Section 7AA Champion
#3 Eagan 25-3-1 Section 3AA Champion

(Goes to double OT with mirror image teams. Cats edge on deoth pays off late)


'Ship

#5 Wayzata 23-7 Section 6AA Champion
#3 Eagan 25-3-1 Section 3AA Champion

(Trojans Dynasty begins with first of 3 consecutive State Championships)

[slacsap]

It looks like we'll have as many as 7 Class AA 20+ win teams at the Excel. Section 1AA is the only section remaining without a 20+ win team. 6 of the other sections have lower seeds with 20+ games already in Section 8AA, Brainerd has 21 wins already.

I'll go out on a limb and seed the State Tournament from these remaining teams

#1 Hill Murray 24-2-1 Section 4AA Champion
vs.
#- Lakeville North 11-16-1 Section 1AA Champion

(Upset Special - North will be too physical for HM)


#2 Duluth East 24-4 Section 7AA Champion
vs
#- Blaine 22-5-1 Section 5AA Champion

(East defense to much for scrappy Bengals)


#3 Eagan 24-3-1 Section 3AA Champion
vs
#- Brainerd 22-4 Section 8AA Champion

Brainerd will get overpowered by high octane Cats


#4 Edina 22-6 Section 2AA Champion
vs
#5 Wayzata 21-7 Section 6AA Champion

4th time is a charm for Trojans

Semi's

#- Lakeville North 12-16-1 Section 1AA Champion
#5 Wayzata 22-7 Section 6AA Champion

(North gets an up close look at a real elite defense)

#2 Duluth East 25-4 Section 7AA Champion
#3 Eagan 25-3-1 Section 3AA Champion

(Goes to double OT with mirror image teams. Cats edge on deoth pays off late)


'Ship

#5 Wayzata 23-7 Section 6AA Champion
#3 Eagan 25-3-1 Section 3AA Champion

(Trojans Dynasty begins with first of 3 consecutive State Championships)

D3 Ref:
Your picks look pretty good and I could easily Wayzata and Eagan playing in the championship game, as you predict. My only quarrel would be your assertion that Lakeville North is too physical for Hill. That apparently wasn't teh case when Hill beat them 7-0 earlier in the year.

[D3Referee]

D3 Ref:
Your picks look pretty good and I could easily Wayzata and Eagan playing in the championship game, as you predict. My only quarrel would be your assertion that Lakeville North is too physical for Hill. That apparently wasn't teh case when Hill beat them 7-0 earlier in the year.

Yah, fair point. North has been wildly inconsistent though. They have had bad losses like 7-0 to Hill and 8-2 to Eagan and 5-1 to Lakeville South and 8-2 to BSM.

But they've had great wins as well, winning 7-2 over Lakeville South and beating Eden Prairie 4-3.

Additionally, they have had some close losses with great teams, losing 3-2 and 2-1 to Prior Lake, 2-1 to Jefferson, 2-0 to East, 3-2 to Burnsville and 5-4 in OT against Eagan

So they CAN play with the top teams and even pull an upset. Moreover, they seem to do a complete 360 in a 2 game series. Winning big and losing big toLakeville South, for example. Taking Eagan to OT and then getting waxed 8-2.

So the 0-7 loss the first time around doesn't mean much - (probably no more than BSM's 7-1 loss to Wayzata in game 1), but might actually set the table for a North win in the rematch.

On the other side of the coin, no team coming to the Excel will have played quite a soft a schedule as Hill Murray has. They haven't played a quality Class AA opponent since a 3-1 January 12th loss to Wayzata. Since then, the average Hill Murray opponent is ranked 70th in the State. I believe Luverne and Achiever Academy have played tougher schedules. They did sneak a win over Class A STA, but other than that there biggest Class AA win since January 5th has come against 28th ranked Moorhead - and they were lucky to escape that game with the 'W'. 5-4 before an empty-netter as I recall.

So of all the teams that make it, Hill Murray (if they make it), is most primed for the upset IMO.

They may not face Lakeville North, but I would imagine teams who do get there will be hoping to draw the Pioneers, as many are beginning to recognize them as a paper tiger.

They will lose game 1 (if they make it) and it WONT be an upset. You heard it here first.

[D3Referee]

Here’s a quick ranking update that omits all eliminated teams; this is largely for State seeding purposes. Your remaining 20 AA teams:

Questions for ya Karl.

What would happen if Wayzata beats BSM and other #1's hold up.

Strictly by the existing LPH rankings that would seed the top 5 like this;

1 . Hill Murray
2. Duluth East
3. Eagan
4. Edina
5. Wayzata

2 questions based on this scenario.

1.) Would Wayzata get credit for beating Tonka and BSM and be bumped up to the #3 seed?

2.) If not, would they consider re-seeding Edina as #3 and Eagan as #4 to avoid yet another Edina/Wayzata game? These teams have played 3 times already. Wouldn't it be better to get some fresh match ups?

Just curious ... do you remember if this has come up before and how/if they handled it

[karl(east)]

Here’s a quick ranking update that omits all eliminated teams; this is largely for State seeding purposes. Your remaining 20 AA teams:

Questions for ya Karl.

What would happen if Wayzata beats BSM and other #1's hold up.

Strictly by the existing LPH rankings that would seed the top 5 like this;

1 . Hill Murray
2. Duluth East
3. Eagan
4. Edina
5. Wayzata

2 questions based on this scenario.

1.) Would Wayzata get credit for beating Tonka and BSM and be bumped up to the #3 seed?

2.) If not, would they consider re-seeding Edina as #3 and Eagan as #4 to avoid yet another Edina/Wayzata game? These teams have played 3 times already. Wouldn't it be better to get some fresh match ups?

Just curious ... do you remember if this has come up before and how/if they handled it

I really can't remember a situation like this before...after all, this is the first year we've had the 4 vs. 5 guaranteed match-up in the first round. In the past years when we've had two Lake teams make it, they've been in the top 4 seeds, so there was no chance at a first-round game.

In direct response to the questions:
1. I think it's possible, but they do take head-to-head games into account, and those 3 losses to Edina would make it difficult for Wayzata to climb to #3.
2. I think this is a somewhat more likely scenario, if they really want to avoid that Edina-Wayzata match-up. After all, human rankings other than mine have been a bit more skeptical of Eagan, and the coaches may decide to drop the Wildcats a spot if they want to. I don't think that would be very fair to Eagan, but if they wanted a new match-up, that would probably be the way they'd do it.

[D3Referee]

I can see how it would be difficult for Wayzata to leap frog Edina, but I can't see them moving Edina up after they barely squeak by 14th franked Jefferson - a team Eagan has handled easily twice.

Perhaps they would put Blaine in the 5-hole and keep Wayzata at 6. Or, any chance they move Duluth East to #4?

I guess one upset makes this academic anyways.

[karl(east)]

I can see how it would be difficult for Wayzata to leap frog Edina, but I can't see them moving Edina up after they barely squeak by 14th franked Jefferson - a team Eagan has handled easily twice.

Perhaps they would put Blaine in the 5-hole and keep Wayzata at 6. Or, any chance they move Duluth East to #4?

I guess one upset makes this academic anyways.

Again, those options are possible, but not likely. Remember, it's a coaches' vote, and while some may not want a repeat game, they are also not going to risk giving themselves a harder first-round game just so that we don't get Edina-Wayzata again. Getting them all to sign up for one of these scenarios that goes against the current rankings--which pretty much everyone agrees on--would be tough.

And yes, one upset (or a BSM win over Wayzata...much as you may not want to see it ) will take care of all of this.

[D3Referee]

And yes, one upset (or a BSM win over Wayzata...much as you may not want to see it ) will take care of all of this.

Yeah, I was thinking more along the lines of Burnsville, Eastview or Grand Rapids

I'm counting on Wayzata beating BSM again

[Nostalgic Nerd]

It looks like we'll have as many as 7 Class AA 20+ win teams at the Excel. Section 1AA is the only section remaining without a 20+ win team. 6 of the other sections have lower seeds with 20+ games already in Section 8AA, Brainerd has 21 wins already.

I'll go out on a limb and seed the State Tournament from these remaining teams

#1 Hill Murray 24-2-1 Section 4AA Champion
vs.
#- Lakeville North 11-16-1 Section 1AA Champion

(Upset Special - North will be too physical for HM)


#2 Duluth East 24-4 Section 7AA Champion
vs
#- Blaine 22-5-1 Section 5AA Champion

(East defense to much for scrappy Bengals)


#3 Eagan 24-3-1 Section 3AA Champion
vs
#- Brainerd 22-4 Section 8AA Champion

Brainerd will get overpowered by high octane Cats


#4 Edina 22-6 Section 2AA Champion
vs
#5 Wayzata 21-7 Section 6AA Champion

4th time is a charm for Trojans

Semi's

#- Lakeville North 12-16-1 Section 1AA Champion
#5 Wayzata 22-7 Section 6AA Champion

(North gets an up close look at a real elite defense)

#2 Duluth East 25-4 Section 7AA Champion
#3 Eagan 25-3-1 Section 3AA Champion

(Goes to double OT with mirror image teams. Cats edge on deoth pays off late)


'Ship

#5 Wayzata 23-7 Section 6AA Champion
#3 Eagan 25-3-1 Section 3AA Champion

(Trojans Dynasty begins with first of 3 consecutive State Championships)

Just curious. What is it about Wayzata's program that makes you think they will three-peat, underclassmen?

[IMHO]

Perhaps they would put Blaine in the 5-hole

Blaine's got to make it to St. Paul first. They're 1-4 vs. Maple Grove the last couple of years and are not the strongest between the pipes this year.

In My Humble Opinion

[scorekeeper]

Perhaps they would put Blaine in the 5-hole

Blaine's got to make it to St. Paul first. They're 1-4 vs. Maple Grove the last couple of years and are not the strongest between the pipes this year.

In My Humble Opinion

I agree. Maple Grove will win section 5AA. I have seen the Bengals play on a couple occasion, and I still maintain they have the best power play that I have seen, good, but not great when 5-on5.

I think the switch to Cal in goal for Maple Grove is a difference maker. In the Maple Grove game against Benilde, the Crimson carried the play and had the better chances. Sprang stood on his head while the Maple Grove goalie let in some softies.

With the goaltender switch, I believe Maple Grove is the best team in 5AA and will be a legitimate threat at the Tournament. Had Cal been in net against BSM, I think Maple Grove has a chance to win. Tough to win when you only score one, but a tighter game gives a different complexion and Maple Grove did outplay the Red Knights.

They have solid defense and talented forwards 3-deep. They beat Andover twice this year, beat Jefferson, beat Blaine, out-played Benilde and hung tight with Minnetonka, Elk River and Centennial. Seems like they are peaking at the right time and I like their chances of winning the section.

Most of the #2 seeds in Class AA are already done for the season and Centennial is ripe to follow suit, leaving Maple Grove to build on last years 15-1 Bengal beating in the section final. I think the season ending Bengal beat-down by the Crimson a couple of weeks ago was a sign of things to come.

[barry_mcconnell]

Eastview better not be planning on a repeat goal-tending performance from Jacky Driscall. He's solid but you can't expect 60+ saves against Eagan this time around.

[D3Referee]

Just curious. What is it about Wayzata's program that makes you think they will three-peat, underclassmen?

Yep. The underclassmen and the upcoming Bantams. If they all stay, we'll have a good chance to string together a few dominant teams. Freytag is just a sophomore and Zimmer a freshman and Van Ayrens a dominating presence in the net, is just a sophomore. Plus we have Senden coming up and I cross my fingers on a rumor I heard that Pitlick may be returning. They would be unstoppable.

[MHL All-Star]

You are correct D3 ref, but even the Red Knights have a stronger freshmen class than Wayzata. Will Pitlick even come back because he would really be a true asset to the team. I don't want to sound like I'm just full of rumors or any other word you wanna say, but isn't Zimmer thinking about leaving Wayzata because of one of the coaches?

[D3Referee]

You are correct D3 ref, but even the Red Knights have a stronger freshmen class than Wayzata. Will Pitlick even come back because he would really be a true asset to the team. I don't want to sound like I'm just full of rumors or any other word you wanna say, but isn't Zimmer thinking about leaving Wayzata because of one of the coaches?

I hope nobody is thinking about leaving. They seem like a very tight knit group.

As for Benilde, I would just disagree on their strength of freshman class. The best freshman they had is already gone. I don't believe they have any other freshman (besides the one who left) who is on the same level as Zimmer and Senden and I KNOW they don't have a soph as good as Freytag or Vahn Ayrens.

The Top Freshman performers the State are listed here
http://minnesota-high-school-hockey.blo ... _9647.html

Senden would have been a top 5 guy on that list for Wayzata if he played, IMO.

Only Baer is on the list for Benilde and he's gone. Who do they have on the JV team who will step in next year?