7A Rankings

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rainier
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7A Rankings

Post by rainier »

Now that holiday tournaments are over, the teams in 7A reach the part of the schedule where they play each other more often. Here are my rankings as they head into the second half of the season. (Section record in parentheses.)

1. Hermantown 10-2 (3-0): The Hawks vaporized any doubt about who would get the #1 seed with their 6-2 beating of Duluth Marshall. The chances of the two teams meeting again for the 7A crown are high, so we should be treated to a high-stakes rematch in late February. The only section games remaining for the Hawks are vs Hibbing and Denfeld.

2. Duluth Marshall 7-5-1 (1-1): Despite the Hermantown loss, Marshalll is still firmly the #2 team and as long as they take care of business vs Hibbing, Denfeld, and Virginia they will get that #2 seed no matter how they do vs the rest of their difficult schedule. The rest of the Hilltoppers' season is essentially one long training session to prepare for a Hermantown rematch in the 7A title game.

3. Hibbing 7-5-1 (3-0): Hibbing, Virginia, and Denfeld are all a significant step behind the top two, and they all seem to be evenly matched with each other, thus any of these three teams could be ranked 3 ,4,or 5 and an argument could be made for it. For example,
-Virginia beat Denfeld 4-0.
-Versus common opponents, Hibbing is 5-2-1 with a combined score of 25-12 while Virginia is 5-3 with a combined score of 24-25.
-Versus common opponents, Hibbing is 2-2 with a score of 8-10 while Denfeld is 3-1 with a score of 24-8.

So, Virginia is better than Denfeld, Hibbing is better than Virginia, and Denfeld is better than Hibbing. I'll jut bypass the chicken or egg nature of this circle and go with my Blue Jackets. Fortunately, Hibbing plays both Virginia and Denfeld in the next eight days, so perhaps some clarity will come soon.

This team plays solid defense and gets decent goaltending, but their lack of scoring punch keeps them from pulling away from the 7A teams behind them.

4. Virginia 7-5-1 (3-0-1): Virginia's 4-0 win over Denfeld keeps them ahead of the Hunters, and if the Blue Devils beat Hibbing next weekend then the #3 seed is likely theirs to lose. Even if they lose to Hibbing, a good showing vs Marshall and a win vs Hibbing at the end of the reg. season could get them in the 3 spot.

Virginia appears to be defensively limited, but their top line has put up decent points and their goalie can always steal a game, such as the win over Cloquet. In Class A, a good 1st line and goalie can give you a puncher's chance against almost any team.

5. Duluth Denfeld 6-7 (2-2): The Hunters played a one goal game vs Hermantown and also beat a good Superior team, but the Virginia loss sets them back. However, they still play Marshall, Hibbing, and Hermantown again, so they could potentially pass Virginia and even get the #2 seed if they beat Marshall and at least play Hermantown tough again.

Denfeld's schedule the rest of the way is not easy (East, CEC, Superior, TRF, Warroad, Marshall, Hermantown, and Rapids), so their record may not shine, but this team should be well-drilled come playoff time.

6. Eveleth-Gilbert 7-3-1 (3-0-1): Here the next tier of 7A teams begin. The Golden Bears' only real statement is the tie vs Virginia; other than that they don't have much that would suggest they could be in the mix with the 3-5 teams. Still, they stay ahead of I-Falls and North Shore and with a whopping 9 more section games to play, the Bears have a chance to lock in at 6 and perhaps get to 5 with an upset or two.

7. International Falls 4-9 (1-5): The Broncos 5 section losses have come to the #1-5 teams, thus even if they win their 3 games vs E-G and NS they can't get higher than #6. I-Falls hasn't been a deep team for a while, but now they also lack the top end talent that always kept them in games. If they can grab the #6 seed, then perhaps they could upset whoever the #3 seed is, but any lower and they will suffer a quarterfinal blowout loss.

8. North Shore 6-4-1 (1-1): Can get up to 6 with wins over E-G and I-Falls.

9. Greenway 1-12-1 (0-6): It's hard to qualify a 1-12 team as "improving", but it does seem the Raiders are more competitive, and given that their team is mostly freshmen and sophomores they could be on their way to being a top 6 7A team in the near future.

10. Ely: Clearly the worst team in 7A.

With Hermantown and Marshall as clear favorites. the rest of 7A is hoping for a magical playoff upset to make things interesting. While such upsets seem to happen almost every year, I wouldn't put any money on it.
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Post by elliott70 »

Nice.
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Post by PuckRanger »

Dead on, rainier.
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Post by PuckRanger »

My take on the section after a few key section games have now played out. Still a ways to go, but I think this is where it sits as of right now. Overall records follow each team with section records in parenthesis.

1 - HERMANTOWN 12-2 (3-0)
The Hawks have only played 3 section opponents (Duluth Denfeld, Duluth Marshall, & International Falls), but they are clearly competing with just one other team for the top seed and they won that game handily. They have 2 section opponents remaining with Hibbing/Chisholm and the rematch with Denfeld. Even with a loss in one of those, they still probably hold on to the top spot.

2 - DULUTH MARSHALL 9-5-1 (1-1)
The Hilltoppers, like Hermantown, have only played a couple of section games. They defeated International Falls and lost to Hermantown. Section games with Eveleth-Gilbert, Virginia, Hibbing/Chisholm, Greenway, and Duluth Denfeld still remain, so they could drop with a couple of stumbles, but not likely to happen. They don't catch Hermantown without a lot of help and a big run down the stretch.

3 - VIRGINIA 10-5-1 (6-0-1)
The Blue Devils have won more section games than anybody else, but did stumble with a tie in Eveleth and a home overtime win over North Shore. Their position here is vulnerable. Wins over Duluth Denfeld, Hibbing/Chisholm, Greenway, International Falls (2), North Shore should keep them in the top 4. Games with Greenway, Eveleth-Gilbert, Duluth Marshall and Hibbing/Chisholm still remain. Wins in all of them could squeeze them into the #2 spot. They do not have Hermantown on the schedule this year, so common opponent scores and results will probably prevent them from getting the top seed in the unlikely event they run the table on the rest of their games.

4 - DULUTH DENFELD 8-8 (3-2)
The Hunters started section play with an ugly 4-0 loss to Virginia and then an overtime loss to Hermantown. They have won 3 straight since with victories over International Falls, Greenway, and Hibbing/Chisholm. The Virginia loss keeps them behind Virginia unless the Blue Devils stumble. Section games remain with Eveleth-Gilbert, Duluth Marshall, Hermantown, and North Shore, so there is opportunity to move up a spot or maybe even two with some help.

5 - EVELETH-GILBERT 9-3-1 (5-0-1)
The Golden Bears join Virginia and Hermantown as the only other undefeated team in section play. Right now the tie with Virginia and no losses in the section keep them ahead of Hibbing/Chisholm. They have beaten Greenway (2), International Falls, North Shore, and Ely, so the wins are not as impressive as the four teams ahead of them. A rematch with Virginia and games with Hibbing/Chisholm and Duluth Denfeld will ultimately determine where they finish. They also have games remaining with International Falls, North Shore, Ely, and Duluth Marshall so the section journey is no where near complete. The Bears play more section games than any other teams. Losses to middle and lower half section 8 teams Kittson Central, Lake of the Woods, and Crookston magnify the importance of section head-to-head games for this team.

6 - HIBBING/CHISHOLM 7-7-1 (3-2)
The Blue Jackets fell a bit down the seeding ladder after consecutive losses to Virginia and Duluth Denfeld. They will pass Eveleth-Gilbert for the #5 spot with a win when they meet later in the season. They have defeated Greenway, International Falls and North Shore, and games remain with teams above them including Hermantown, Duluth Marshall, Virginia, and Eveleth-Gilbert - along with a game against International Falls. They will probably need to win 4 out of those five with the one loss being to Marshall or Hermantown to have a chance at a home playoff game. Winning them all could get them as high as #2 with some help.

7 - NORTH SHORE 6-6-1 (1-3)
The Storm are improved and have stayed in games with the three teams they've played above them, but did not manage to win any. A win over Ely is not nearly enough to overcome losses to Hibbing, Virginia, and Eveleth-Gilbert. They have 6 section games remaining, but four of those games are to the three teams below them (2 with Greenway, a rematch with Ely, and one against International Falls), so there is not a lot of chances for improving their position. The two chances the do have are against Eveleth-Gilbert and the season finale against Duluth Denfeld. Even if they win them both, a road game is still likely as they probably won't have enough on the resume to move up more than a spot or two.

8 - INTERNATIONAL FALLS 4-11-1 (1-7-1)
The Broncos have only managed one section win in 9 games and that was followed up with a scoreless overtime tie against that same team which is just barely below them (Greenway). Losses to Virginia (2), Hibbing/Chisholm, Duluth Marshall, Duluth Denfeld, Hermantown, and Eveleth-Gilbert will prevent them from getting out of a play-in game situation. Games remain with Ely, North Shore, Hibbing/Chisholm, and Eveleth-Gilbert. A stumble against Ely or an upset from Greenway could put the Broncos on the road in a play-in game.

9 - GREENWAY 1-12-2 (0-5-1)
The Raiders are probably better than their 1 win record shows, but that won't help with their seeding. A tie with International Falls is all they have to work with at this point and losses to Virginia, Hibbing/Chisholm, International Falls, Eveleth-Gilbert (2), and Duluth Denfeld have pretty much locked them into the bottom four. They have games left against Virginia, Ely, North Shore, and Duluth Marshall. Any non-Ely win could bump them up into a home play-in game spot.

10 - ELY 0-10 (0-2)
As usual, the Timberwolves bring up the rear. Nothing new or surprising here. The Timberwolves will be playing at the #7 seed to start section playoffs.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

One thing is for sure this year, two quarterfinal games will be entertaining and two will not. Also interesting is if this is how things actually play out, Hibbing will face Virginia in a 7A quarterfinal game... which has never happened before.
rainier
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Post by rainier »

Can't really disagree with any of your rankings, but I sure hope Hibbing doesn't finish behind E-G, although a Hib-Vir quarterfinal would be fun. I also hope some of DeCenzo's late season magic rubbed off on Versich from their coaching days together, otherwise it will be the earliest playoff exit for Hibbing in their Class A history. (I think)

Hermantown appears to be getting stronger as the season progresses, so hopes of an upset by any 7A team are growing dimmer.
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Post by PuckRanger »

rainier wrote:Can't really disagree with any of your rankings, but I sure hope Hibbing doesn't finish behind E-G, although a Hib-Vir quarterfinal would be fun. I also hope some of DeCenzo's late season magic rubbed off on Versich from their coaching days together, otherwise it will be the earliest playoff exit for Hibbing in their Class A history. (I think)

Hermantown appears to be getting stronger as the season progresses, so hopes of an upset by any 7A team are growing dimmer.
Yes, it would be their earliest exit in class A. They have always made the semis or the finals. I agree that its looking tough for anyone to take out Hermantown. Its looking like it will take a red hot goalie and probably more than a couple of fortunate bounces in order for someone to pull that off.
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Section records

Post by HockeyStorm »

Are sectionn records the sole determination for seeding or does the entire body of work have a part in it as well?
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Post by Immigrant Fan »

It appears to me that the importance of section record versus overall body of work depends on how any individual's team did during the current year. But, let the debate begin...
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Re: Section records

Post by PuckRanger »

HockeyStorm wrote:Are sectionn records the sole determination for seeding or does the entire body of work have a part in it as well?
Historically in this section, results of section games have carried more weight. There is obviously some consideration given to the overall body of work - or Duluth Marshall and Hermantown would have a tough time climbing to the top since they do not play everyone in the section. This is why you see Marshall holding the #2 spot, despite a 1-1 section record. Ultimately its how the coaches vote, but in that meeting, a head-to-head win over somebody is hard to argue with unless it clearly shows itself as an anomaly. Most of these teams play enough common opponents and play among themselves to allow for this to happen. Not the same for say 7AA where that is not the case. 7A has been fairly easy to predict over the years and I don't see any reason why this year would be any different.
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Post by PuckRanger »

Updated after this weekend's games... Overall records follow each team with section records in parenthesis.

1 - HERMANTOWN 15-3 (3-0)
Nothing new here. The Hawks have still only played 3 section opponents (Duluth Denfeld, Duluth Marshall, & International Falls), but they are clearly competing with just one other team for the top seed and they won that game handily. They have 2 section opponents remaining with Hibbing/Chisholm and the rematch with Denfeld. Even with a loss in one of those, they still probably hold on to the top spot because of their wins over other highly ranked class A teams.

2 - DULUTH MARSHALL 12-7-1 (2-1)
The Hilltoppers, like Hermantown, have only played three section games. They defeated International Falls and Hibbing/Chisholm, but lost to Hermantown. Section games with Eveleth-Gilbert, Virginia, Greenway, and Duluth Denfeld still remain, so they could drop with a couple of stumbles, but not likely to happen. They still don't catch Hermantown without a lot of help and a big run down the stretch. Recent wins over Breck and Thief River Falls keep them in the conversation for the top seed, but still a long shot.

3 - VIRGINIA 14-5-1 (8-0-1)
The Blue Devils have won more section games than anybody else and have emerged as the clear #3 seed with the second best overall record in the section. Their position here is now probably locked in. Wins over Duluth Denfeld, Hibbing/Chisholm, Eveleth-Gilbert/Mesabi East, Greenway(2), International Falls (2), North Shore should keep them here. Games with Duluth Marshall and Hibbing/Chisholm still remain. Wins in both of them could squeeze them into the #2 spot. As mentioned before, they do not have Hermantown on the schedule this year, so common opponent scores and results will probably prevent them from getting the top seed in the unlikely event they run the table on the rest of their games.

4 - DULUTH DENFELD 9-10-1 (3-2)
The Hunters started section play with an ugly 4-0 loss to Virginia and then an overtime loss to Hermantown. They have won 3 straight since with victories over International Falls, Greenway, and Hibbing/Chisholm. The Virginia loss keeps them behind Virginia. Four of their five remaining games are with section opponents (Eveleth-Gilbert, Duluth Marshall, Hermantown, and North Shore) so there is a slight chance for them to drop out of a home playoff spot with a bad stumble.

5 - HIBBING/CHISHOLM 8-9-1 (3-3)
The Blue Jackets bounce back up to the #5 spot, despite adding another section loss to their record (Duluth Marshall) thanks to Eveleth-Gilbert's recent struggles. All of their losses are to the teams ahead of them, including Virginia and Duluth Denfeld. They will hold off Eveleth-Gilbert for the #5 spot with a win when the two meet later in the season. They have defeated Greenway, International Falls and North Shore. Section games remain with Hermantown, Virginia, Eveleth-Gilbert, and International Falls. They will probably need to win all of them to have a chance at a home playoff game. Losses to both Eveleth-Gilbert and Virginia will drop them back down to #6 and a road playoff game in Virginia.

6 - EVELETH-GILBERT 10-7-1 (5-2-1)
The Golden Bears have stumbled of late, losing four of their last five games. Two of those losses were to section opponents and the one win was over the bottom team in 7A. They have beaten Greenway (2), International Falls, North Shore, and Ely (2), so the wins are not as impressive as the five teams ahead of them. Losses to North Shore and a 4-0 shutout at the hands of Virginia while allowing 60 shots on goal drop the Bears behind Hibbing. Games with Hibbing and Duluth Denfeld will ultimately determine where they finish. They also have games remaining with International Falls, and Duluth Marshall. The #5 seed is not out of the question, but it will take winning all four of those remaining section games for them to be considered for a home playoff spot and the #4 seed.


7 - NORTH SHORE 8-8-1 (2-4)
The Storm managed a win in their rematch with Eveleth-Gilbert that has them threatening to move up and out of a play-in game scenario. The loss to Greenway prevents that as of now, however. Their only other section win was over Ely. Their losses are to Hibbing, Virginia, Eveleth-Gilbert, and Greenway. They have 4 section games remaining, but three of those games are to the three teams below them (Greenway, Ely, International Falls), so there is not a lot of chances for improving their position. The one chance they do have is in the season finale against Duluth Denfeld. They won't move up past the #6 spot unless one of the top five completely unravels down the stretch.

8 - INTERNATIONAL FALLS 4-13-1 (1-7-1)
The Broncos have only managed one section win in 9 games and that was followed up with a scoreless overtime tie against that same team which is just barely below them (Greenway). Losses to Virginia (2), Hibbing/Chisholm, Duluth Marshall, Duluth Denfeld, Hermantown, and Eveleth-Gilbert will prevent them from getting out of a play-in game situation. The Broncos have been shutout 9 times this season and have scored just 23 goals in 18 games... and more than half of those goals came in just 3 different games. Still, they are clinging to a home play-in game and could lock that in with win or two in their remaining section games (North Shore, Hibbing, Eveleth, and Ely)

9 - GREENWAY 3-13-3 (1-7-1)
The Raiders are showing signs of improvement and have tripled their overall win total and have matched International Falls in section play. A tie with Broncos and a win over North Shore is not quite enough to get them a home play-in game at this point, mainly due to the head-to-head loss to International Falls. Other losses to Virginia(2), Hibbing/Chisholm, Eveleth-Gilbert (2), and Duluth Denfeld have pretty much locked them into the bottom four. They have games left against Ely, North Shore, and Duluth Marshall. Another win over North Shore or a huge uspest of Marshall would probably bump them up into a home play-in game spot.

10 - ELY 0-14 (0-3)
As usual, the winless Timberwolves bring up the rear. Nothing new or surprising here. The Timberwolves will be playing at the #7 seed to start section playoffs.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here is how I think it will play out:

#10 Ely will play at #7 North Shore in one play-in game. North Shore will win relatively easily and be rewarded with a trip to #2 Duluth Marshall for the quarters.

#9 International Falls will play at #8 Greenway in the other play-in game (Yes, I think Greenway and I Falls eventually flip seeds). Greenway will win that game, which will be a battle, and then head to top seeded Hermantown in their quarterfinal match up.

#6 Eveleth-Gilbert will travel all of four miles to face off with #3 Virginia once again in quarterfinal number three.

#5 Hibbing/Chisholm will head down to Duluth to take on #4 Denfeld in the other quarterfinal.

The top four seeds will all advance, with only the Hibbing/Denfeld game being in question. Don't see an upset in the semi's either, although Denfeld did give Hermantown a run earlier this year and Virginia has a goalie that could give Marshall fits if he is on. Still, a Duluth Marshall/Hermantown final seems imminent. Who wins that is a coin flip.
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Post by Hibbing01 »

otherwise it will be the earliest playoff exit for Hibbing in their Class A history. (I think)

Hibbing was eliminated from the quarterfinal in their own building by Hermantown in 2002, the first year they dropped down to "A"

They'll be lucky if they're in their own building this time around.
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Denfeld

Post by HockeyStorm »

Does Denfeld's win against Marshall move them up at all? I can't see how it would yet, because Virginia beat Denfeld 4-0. The Marshall/Virginia game will be a pivotal one, if Marshall takes care of business they should be locked into the #2 spot.

With Hibbing's loss to I. Falls, I think that pretty much cements the top 4 in the section seedings.
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Re: Denfeld

Post by elliott70 »

HockeyStorm wrote:Does Denfeld's win against Marshall move them up at all? I can't see how it would yet, because Virginia beat Denfeld 4-0. The Marshall/Virginia game will be a pivotal one, if Marshall takes care of business they should be locked into the #2 spot.

With Hibbing's loss to I. Falls, I think that pretty much cements the top 4 in the section seedings.
Hermantown will argue to put Denfeld at 3, Marshall will want them at 4.
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7A

Post by blueblood »

1) Hermantown - beat Denfeld and Marshall
2) Virgina - win over Denfeld
3) Denfeld - win over Marshall lost to Htown
4) Marshall - losses to Htown and Denfeld
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Re: Denfeld

Post by TheInsider »

HockeyStorm wrote:Does Denfeld's win against Marshall move them up at all? I can't see how it would yet, because Virginia beat Denfeld 4-0. The Marshall/Virginia game will be a pivotal one, if Marshall takes care of business they should be locked into the #2 spot.

With Hibbing's loss to I. Falls, I think that pretty much cements the top 4 in the section seedings.
If I had to guess, I think it would. But I'm not sure, Virginia did beat Denfeld 4-0 so im sure they wouldnt be too happy with the 4 seed.
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Re: Denfeld

Post by rainier »

TheInsider wrote:
HockeyStorm wrote:Does Denfeld's win against Marshall move them up at all? I can't see how it would yet, because Virginia beat Denfeld 4-0. The Marshall/Virginia game will be a pivotal one, if Marshall takes care of business they should be locked into the #2 spot.

With Hibbing's loss to I. Falls, I think that pretty much cements the top 4 in the section seedings.
If I had to guess, I think it would. But I'm not sure, Virginia did beat Denfeld 4-0 so im sure they wouldnt be too happy with the 4 seed.
I agree that the Marshall/VMIB game will be a big one, but I do think Denfeld moved up to the #2 spot for now. With the win over Marshall, Denfeld's body of work begins to look better than both Marshall and VMIB. They played Hermantown and East tough, and also beat Superior twice while VMIB lost to them and Marshall split with them. If recency of success counts for anything during the seeding process, then Denfeld may have done enough to overcome their early season loss to VMIB.

For Denfeld to get the #2 seed, they must play Hermantown and Grand Rapids tough and hope VMIB doesn't upset Marshall or Rapids.

For VMIB to get the #2 seed, they must beat Hibbing again and at least play Marshall and Rapids tough. (And not have Denfeld upset Htown or GR.)

For Marshall to get the #2 seed, they must have VMIB lose to Hibbing and get beaten soundly by GR, along with Denfeld getting beaten soundly by Htown and GR.

Being a private school, Marshall wont have many coaches deciding in their favor and indeed many would probably want to see a Herm/Marshall semi to give Denfeld or VMIB a chance to play for the 7A title.

On a side note, E-G is now in the driver's seat for the #5 seed, and Hibbing will have to beat them if the Bluejackets want to avoid #6.

If I had to guess how it will all shake out, I would put it:
1. Htown
2. Denfeld
3. Marshall
4. VMIB
5. Hibbing
6. E-G
7. I-Falls
8. North Shore

Should be fun to see how it works out!

:D
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Post by rainier »

Wow. Huge statement game for Virginia as far as 7A is concerned. Murray gets it done against an excellent team. They could give Marshall a real run.
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Post by TheInsider »

How I see it...

For Duluth Marshall to get #2-3 seed: They must beat Virgina.
For Virgina to get the #2-3 seed: They either must beat Marshall, or hope for 2 Denfeld losses vs Grand Rapids and Hermantown.
For Denfeld to get the #2-3 seed: They need to upset either Hermantown or Grand Rapids, or Virginia beats Marshall.
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Re: Denfeld

Post by PuckRanger »

rainier wrote:I agree that the Marshall/VMIB game will be a big one, but I do think Denfeld moved up to the #2 spot for now. With the win over Marshall, Denfeld's body of work begins to look better than both Marshall and VMIB. They played Hermantown and East tough, and also beat Superior twice while VMIB lost to them and Marshall split with them. If recency of success counts for anything during the seeding process, then Denfeld may have done enough to overcome their early season loss to VMIB.

For Denfeld to get the #2 seed, they must play Hermantown and Grand Rapids tough and hope VMIB doesn't upset Marshall or Rapids.

For VMIB to get the #2 seed, they must beat Hibbing again and at least play Marshall and Rapids tough. (And not have Denfeld upset Htown or GR.)

For Marshall to get the #2 seed, they must have VMIB lose to Hibbing and get beaten soundly by GR, along with Denfeld getting beaten soundly by Htown and GR.

Being a private school, Marshall wont have many coaches deciding in their favor and indeed many would probably want to see a Herm/Marshall semi to give Denfeld or VMIB a chance to play for the 7A title.

On a side note, E-G is now in the driver's seat for the #5 seed, and Hibbing will have to beat them if the Bluejackets want to avoid #6.

If I had to guess how it will all shake out, I would put it:
1. Htown
2. Denfeld
3. Marshall
4. VMIB
5. Hibbing
6. E-G
7. I-Falls
8. North Shore

Should be fun to see how it works out!

:D
Looking at Denfeld's overall quality wins, I'm not sure this one win is enough to give them #2 at this point. 6 of their 10 wins are against the likes of Cambridge-Isanti, Proctor, St. Francis, International Falls, Greenway, and Owattona. The win against Hibbing helps, but given Hibbing's struggles within the section, not that much since the other top teams all have that win as well. The only other two teams they have beaten are Superior and Marshall. Its hard to put them ahead of Virginia who has wins over some of the same teams along with Grand Rapids, Cloquet, and the head to head win over Denfeld. The only thing that throws it for a loop is Superior, which defeated Virginia. It seems to me the overall body of work are too similar to discard the head-to-head result, even though that did take place in December... it still counts.

Its a mess now, no doubt. And it will be hard to predict things, especially if there are more fuzzy results. But right now, I'd seed it this way:
1. Hermantown
2. Virginia
3. Denfeld
4. Marshall
5. Winner of Eveleth/Hibbing game
6. Loser of Eveleth/Hibbing game
7. North Shore
8. International Falls
9. Greenway
10. Ely

(North Shore and I Falls could easily be swapped.)

Of course the Virginia/Marshall game looms large for the 2-4 spots. If Marshall wins big, Virginia drops back to #4 and its a crap shoot for #2 & #3, if Virginia wins, they hold #2 and Denfeld probably gets #3. If Marshall wins in a close game, I think it will be anyone's guess.

This is assuming, of course, that Virginia can win in Hibbing, which history has proven is no given. It also assumes Denfeld does not stumble against Eveleth/North Shore or upset Hermantown. Still a lot in play here in the final two weeks. Even for the lower seeds.
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Re: Denfeld

Post by rainier »

PuckRanger wrote:
rainier wrote:I agree that the Marshall/VMIB game will be a big one, but I do think Denfeld moved up to the #2 spot for now. With the win over Marshall, Denfeld's body of work begins to look better than both Marshall and VMIB. They played Hermantown and East tough, and also beat Superior twice while VMIB lost to them and Marshall split with them. If recency of success counts for anything during the seeding process, then Denfeld may have done enough to overcome their early season loss to VMIB.

For Denfeld to get the #2 seed, they must play Hermantown and Grand Rapids tough and hope VMIB doesn't upset Marshall or Rapids.

For VMIB to get the #2 seed, they must beat Hibbing again and at least play Marshall and Rapids tough. (And not have Denfeld upset Htown or GR.)

For Marshall to get the #2 seed, they must have VMIB lose to Hibbing and get beaten soundly by GR, along with Denfeld getting beaten soundly by Htown and GR.

Being a private school, Marshall wont have many coaches deciding in their favor and indeed many would probably want to see a Herm/Marshall semi to give Denfeld or VMIB a chance to play for the 7A title.

On a side note, E-G is now in the driver's seat for the #5 seed, and Hibbing will have to beat them if the Bluejackets want to avoid #6.

If I had to guess how it will all shake out, I would put it:
1. Htown
2. Denfeld
3. Marshall
4. VMIB
5. Hibbing
6. E-G
7. I-Falls
8. North Shore

Should be fun to see how it works out!

:D
Looking at Denfeld's overall quality wins, I'm not sure this one win is enough to give them #2 at this point. 6 of their 10 wins are against the likes of Cambridge-Isanti, Proctor, St. Francis, International Falls, Greenway, and Owattona. The win against Hibbing helps, but given Hibbing's struggles within the section, not that much since the other top teams all have that win as well. The only other two teams they have beaten are Superior and Marshall. Its hard to put them ahead of Virginia who has wins over some of the same teams along with Grand Rapids, Cloquet, and the head to head win over Denfeld. The only thing that throws it for a loop is Superior, which defeated Virginia. It seems to me the overall body of work are too similar to discard the head-to-head result, even though that did take place in December... it still counts.

Its a mess now, no doubt. And it will be hard to predict things, especially if there are more fuzzy results. But right now, I'd seed it this way:
1. Hermantown
2. Virginia
3. Denfeld
4. Marshall
5. Winner of Eveleth/Hibbing game
6. Loser of Eveleth/Hibbing game
7. North Shore
8. International Falls
9. Greenway
10. Ely

(North Shore and I Falls could easily be swapped.)

Of course the Virginia/Marshall game looms large for the 2-4 spots. If Marshall wins big, Virginia drops back to #4 and its a crap shoot for #2 & #3, if Virginia wins, they hold #2 and Denfeld probably gets #3. If Marshall wins in a close game, I think it will be anyone's guess.

This is assuming, of course, that Virginia can win in Hibbing, which history has proven is no given. It also assumes Denfeld does not stumble against Eveleth/North Shore or upset Hermantown. Still a lot in play here in the final two weeks. Even for the lower seeds.
Agreed. With the win over Marshall, I thought Denfeld had done enough to overcome their earlier loss to Virginia, but the Virginia win over Rapids puts the Blue Devils back ahead of the Hunters IMO.

Virginia can make this easy by beating Marshall and dropping them to #4 for sure. But a convincing Marshall win would make it very tough to put Virginia ahead of them.

Virginia can get the #2 seed if: They beat Marshall, plain and simple. Even a Denfeld upset of Hermantown wouldn't get them to #2 in that case.

Denfeld can get the #2 seed if: Virgina loses to Marshall and the Hunters upset Hermantown and/or Rapids.

Marshall can get the #2 seed if: They beat Virginia solidly and Denfeld gets beaten solidly by Rapids and Hermantown.

I think Hibbing is an interesting wild card if they get matched up with Denfeld or Virginia in the QF, as a win over either of those teams wouldn't be a huge upset.
TheInsider
Posts: 112
Joined: Thu Dec 26, 2013 7:00 pm

Re: Denfeld

Post by TheInsider »

rainier wrote:
PuckRanger wrote:
rainier wrote:I agree that the Marshall/VMIB game will be a big one, but I do think Denfeld moved up to the #2 spot for now. With the win over Marshall, Denfeld's body of work begins to look better than both Marshall and VMIB. They played Hermantown and East tough, and also beat Superior twice while VMIB lost to them and Marshall split with them. If recency of success counts for anything during the seeding process, then Denfeld may have done enough to overcome their early season loss to VMIB.

For Denfeld to get the #2 seed, they must play Hermantown and Grand Rapids tough and hope VMIB doesn't upset Marshall or Rapids.

For VMIB to get the #2 seed, they must beat Hibbing again and at least play Marshall and Rapids tough. (And not have Denfeld upset Htown or GR.)

For Marshall to get the #2 seed, they must have VMIB lose to Hibbing and get beaten soundly by GR, along with Denfeld getting beaten soundly by Htown and GR.

Being a private school, Marshall wont have many coaches deciding in their favor and indeed many would probably want to see a Herm/Marshall semi to give Denfeld or VMIB a chance to play for the 7A title.

On a side note, E-G is now in the driver's seat for the #5 seed, and Hibbing will have to beat them if the Bluejackets want to avoid #6.

If I had to guess how it will all shake out, I would put it:
1. Htown
2. Denfeld
3. Marshall
4. VMIB
5. Hibbing
6. E-G
7. I-Falls
8. North Shore

Should be fun to see how it works out!

:D
Looking at Denfeld's overall quality wins, I'm not sure this one win is enough to give them #2 at this point. 6 of their 10 wins are against the likes of Cambridge-Isanti, Proctor, St. Francis, International Falls, Greenway, and Owattona. The win against Hibbing helps, but given Hibbing's struggles within the section, not that much since the other top teams all have that win as well. The only other two teams they have beaten are Superior and Marshall. Its hard to put them ahead of Virginia who has wins over some of the same teams along with Grand Rapids, Cloquet, and the head to head win over Denfeld. The only thing that throws it for a loop is Superior, which defeated Virginia. It seems to me the overall body of work are too similar to discard the head-to-head result, even though that did take place in December... it still counts.

Its a mess now, no doubt. And it will be hard to predict things, especially if there are more fuzzy results. But right now, I'd seed it this way:
1. Hermantown
2. Virginia
3. Denfeld
4. Marshall
5. Winner of Eveleth/Hibbing game
6. Loser of Eveleth/Hibbing game
7. North Shore
8. International Falls
9. Greenway
10. Ely

(North Shore and I Falls could easily be swapped.)

Of course the Virginia/Marshall game looms large for the 2-4 spots. If Marshall wins big, Virginia drops back to #4 and its a crap shoot for #2 & #3, if Virginia wins, they hold #2 and Denfeld probably gets #3. If Marshall wins in a close game, I think it will be anyone's guess.

This is assuming, of course, that Virginia can win in Hibbing, which history has proven is no given. It also assumes Denfeld does not stumble against Eveleth/North Shore or upset Hermantown. Still a lot in play here in the final two weeks. Even for the lower seeds.
Agreed. With the win over Marshall, I thought Denfeld had done enough to overcome their earlier loss to Virginia, but the Virginia win over Rapids puts the Blue Devils back ahead of the Hunters IMO.

Virginia can make this easy by beating Marshall and dropping them to #4 for sure. But a convincing Marshall win would make it very tough to put Virginia ahead of them.

Virginia can get the #2 seed if: They beat Marshall, plain and simple. Even a Denfeld upset of Hermantown wouldn't get them to #2 in that case.

Denfeld can get the #2 seed if: Virgina loses to Marshall and the Hunters upset Hermantown and/or Rapids.

Marshall can get the #2 seed if: They beat Virginia solidly and Denfeld gets beaten solidly by Rapids and Hermantown.

I think Hibbing is an interesting wild card if they get matched up with Denfeld or Virginia in the QF, as a win over either of those teams wouldn't be a huge upset.
End of story, the difference between the 2-3 seed doesnt matter too much but no one wants the 4 seed.
PuckRanger
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Re: Denfeld

Post by PuckRanger »

TheInsider wrote:End of story, the difference between the 2-3 seed doesnt matter too much but no one wants the 4 seed.
Other than just for the sake of the non-glory that comes with that, I'm not so sure about that now...

Nobody wants to draw Hermantown, but Denfeld has given them all they can handle. 6 periods and two overtimes and Hermantown has only scored just the one OT goal more than the Hunters head to head. Their 6-2 win over Marshall wasn't as lopsided as the score indicated, either. The Hilltoppers had their chances in that game and actually had more shots on goal in two of the 3 periods. I'm not sure why these teams don't play twice since they are highly competitive and in the same conference.

Denfeld is on fire. Beating Duluth Marshall and tying Hermantown in the last week is enough to scare you away from a playoff matchup with them. Their loss to Virginia can't be ignored, but it was 7 weeks ago.

Marshall has proven they can play with the state's best, with wins over Breck, Totino-Grace, Grand Rapids, Cloquet, and Thief River Falls and has played close games with Benilde-St. Maragaret's, and St. Thomas Academy. Not a great draw either.

Virginia shut out Denfeld 4-0 and more recently shut down Grand Rapids. They have also beaten Cloquet, which just knocked off Duluth East tonight. Not sure anyone wants to play them right now, either.

3 weeks ago, I had Hermantown and Marshall as clear favorites. Now I definitely would include Denfeld to that mix, and its hard to count out Virginia. The Virginia/Marshall game on Thursday will tell us how real of a threat Virginia will be. But right now, I would think you want a #1 or #2 seed just to get the last change advantage in the semifinal game, not to avoid any specific opponent.

After seeing Hibbing get manhandled by Grand Rapids tonight, I don't think they are a real threat in the quarterfinals anymore, especially since they will be away from the Memorial Building. I don't think Eveleth is really there either, as their early season tie with Virginia appears to be more a rivalry fluke than a realistic predictor, although that tie may be the factor that drops Virginia down to the #4 seed if things play out right.

It has been many years since we've had the top 4 in this section all gummed up like they are this year. It does not help that Virginia and Hermantown did not play each other for the first time in probably 30+ years.

It looks like a lot hinges on the Virginia/Marshall game along with the Grand Rapids' games with Denfeld and Hermantown. Barring an upset, the only other game left that might impact the top 4 seeding is Marshall's game with St. Cloud Cathedral, but I'm not 100% sure that game will be played before the seeding meeting, which might be earlier that morning.
TheInsider
Posts: 112
Joined: Thu Dec 26, 2013 7:00 pm

Re: Denfeld

Post by TheInsider »

PuckRanger wrote:
TheInsider wrote:End of story, the difference between the 2-3 seed doesnt matter too much but no one wants the 4 seed.
Other than just for the sake of the non-glory that comes with that, I'm not so sure about that now...

Nobody wants to draw Hermantown, but Denfeld has given them all they can handle. 6 periods and two overtimes and Hermantown has only scored just the one OT goal more than the Hunters head to head. Their 6-2 win over Marshall wasn't as lopsided as the score indicated, either. The Hilltoppers had their chances in that game and actually had more shots on goal in two of the 3 periods. I'm not sure why these teams don't play twice since they are highly competitive and in the same conference.

Denfeld is on fire. Beating Duluth Marshall and tying Hermantown in the last week is enough to scare you away from a playoff matchup with them. Their loss to Virginia can't be ignored, but it was 7 weeks ago.

Marshall has proven they can play with the state's best, with wins over Breck, Totino-Grace, Grand Rapids, Cloquet, and Thief River Falls and has played close games with Benilde-St. Maragaret's, and St. Thomas Academy. Not a great draw either.

Virginia shut out Denfeld 4-0 and more recently shut down Grand Rapids. They have also beaten Cloquet, which just knocked off Duluth East tonight. Not sure anyone wants to play them right now, either.

3 weeks ago, I had Hermantown and Marshall as clear favorites. Now I definitely would include Denfeld to that mix, and its hard to count out Virginia. The Virginia/Marshall game on Thursday will tell us how real of a threat Virginia will be. But right now, I would think you want a #1 or #2 seed just to get the last change advantage in the semifinal game, not to avoid any specific opponent.

After seeing Hibbing get manhandled by Grand Rapids tonight, I don't think they are a real threat in the quarterfinals anymore, especially since they will be away from the Memorial Building. I don't think Eveleth is really there either, as their early season tie with Virginia appears to be more a rivalry fluke than a realistic predictor, although that tie may be the factor that drops Virginia down to the #4 seed if things play out right.

It has been many years since we've had the top 4 in this section all gummed up like they are this year. It does not help that Virginia and Hermantown did not play each other for the first time in probably 30+ years.

It looks like a lot hinges on the Virginia/Marshall game along with the Grand Rapids' games with Denfeld and Hermantown. Barring an upset, the only other game left that might impact the top 4 seeding is Marshall's game with St. Cloud Cathedral, but I'm not 100% sure that game will be played before the seeding meeting, which might be earlier that morning.
Hermantown is still the clear favorite and the #1 team in the section.
HockeyStorm
Posts: 157
Joined: Fri Oct 03, 2008 10:42 pm

Post by HockeyStorm »

I think Denfeld's tie with Hermantown last night locks them in at the #2 seed. Winner of the Virginia/Marshall game will be the #3 seed, and loser #4.
curtiscurve
Posts: 330
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2010 6:14 am

Post by curtiscurve »

HockeyStorm wrote:I think Denfeld's tie with Hermantown last night locks them in at the #2 seed. Winner of the Virginia/Marshall game will be the #3 seed, and loser #4.
I really do not think you can say a tie with H-Town gives Denfeld the #2. If Virginia can beat Marshall and Hibbing they will end with a 18-6-1 record with 0 section losses. That would lock them in at #2 in my mind. Denfeld is very dangerous and I would love to see them make it to the tournament, but that does not mean they deserve a higher seed.

1- Hermantown
2- Virginia MIB
3- Denfeld
4- Marshall
5- Hibbing
6- Eveleth-Gilbert
7- North Shore
8- International Falls
9- Greenway
10- Ely
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