Class A Rankings 2-2-14

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Moderators: Mitch Hawker, east hockey, karl(east)

Where should Breck be ranked?

Poll ended at Sun Feb 09, 2014 8:57 am

Top 3
13
41%
Higher
13
41%
Where they are
4
13%
Lower
2
6%
 
Total votes: 32

HShockeywatcher
Posts: 6848
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:21 pm

Class A Rankings 2-2-14

Post by HShockeywatcher » Sun Feb 02, 2014 8:57 am

A couple big upsets this week and some of the teams in the 10-15 range have dropped out of the top 15, likely for the rest of the season. There are many bubble teams who wouldn't be a surprise to see do well in sections, but do not have the body of work and recent success to be ranked above others. With a couple key games remaining for 6A, 7A, and 8A, the rest of the sections' important games are mainly over. With two weeks left in the regular season, the playoffs are almost upon us.

Feedback and input are always appreciated. Enjoy!

1. East Grand Forks (19-2-1)
The Green Wave tied Warroad at home before Christmas, but last week traveled to Warroad and beat the Warriors 5-1. This week they play two good 8AA teams.
This week: Mon @ Bemidji, Fri vs Roseau

2. Warroad (18-3-1)
After not losing 15 games in a row, the Warriors picked up their first Class A loss of the season. This week they are on the road twice and the second time is to play a team they have previously lost to. Can they go without losing until they play East Grand Forks again?
This week: Wed @ Thief River Falls, Thurs @ Bemidji

3. Hermantown (17-3)
The Hawks dominated Totino-Grace this week as they continue to walk through the Class A teams they play. They have three home games this week and Monday play a team they previously needed OT to beat the first time around. Can they go on the road and beat another team Warroad has previously lost to?
This week: Mon @ Denfeld, Wed @ Grand Rapids, Fri @ Brainerd

4. Cathedral (14-6)
The Crusaders will likely be the 1 or 2 seed in section 6A and Thursday’s game this week will determine which they will be. If a top ranking is correct for this team, they should win their games this week and be challenged next week in most of them in getting ready for the playoffs.
This week: Tues vs Achiever Academy, Thurs vs St Cloud Apollo, Sat vs Mound-Westonka

5. Duluth Marshall (12-8-1)
The Hilltoppers rebounded from their close loss to Denfeld. A win in Virginia this week would likely give them to the 2 seed, but a loss would likely drop them down to the 4 seed. This this a team that would not be a surprise to see at state but also could lose in the section semifinals.
This week: Thurs @ Virginia

6. Totino-Grace (10-8-1)
The Eagles were beaten handily by a good Hermantown team. This week they host an even better Benilde team. Likely the top seed of section 4A, two of their remaining 5 games are against top 10 AA teams
This week: Tues vs Benilde-St Margaret’s, Sat vs Irondale

7. Breck (15-5-1)
Another couple conference wins in a week they scored 16 more goals than they allowed, the Mustangs likely won’t lose another game before state. How they will be seeded at state remains a mystery with how they’ve done against some top teams from other sections recently.
This week: Tues vs St Paul Academy, Thurs @ St Paul Johnson

8. New Prague (14-4-3)
The Trojans lost a one goal game to Farmington and their share of the conference lead. With one non-conference game left on their schedule, they will likely not be challenged until they play Mankato West for the opportunity to play in the State Tournament.
This week: Mon @ Holy Angels, Sat vs Rochester Lourdes

9. Mankato West (19-2)
The Scarlets’ four remaining opponents they have previously beaten by a combined score of 17-3. The lost to New Prague at home, what will happen on neutral ice?
This week: Mon @ Austin, Sat vs Rochester Mayo

10. Thief River Falls (12-7)
With 6 of their 7 losses coming to teams in the top 8 in state, the Prowlers are clearly not a bad team. They’ve previously shut out Roseau and been shut out by Warroad. How many wins can they pick up this week?
This week: Mon @ Roseau, Wed vs Warroad, Fri vs Red Lake Falls, Sat vs Moorhead

11. Duluth Denfeld (10-10-1)
The Hunters picked up their first “quality win” of the season beating Marshall this week. They have had an up and down season, but not too many bad losses. Can they play Hermantown as close the second time around as the first?
This week: Mon vs Hermantown

12. Luverne (20-0-1)
The Cardinals continue to win and are the first team in the state to reach 20 wins. All 4 of their remaining opponents have losing records; can they make it through the entire regular season without a loss?
This week: Mon @ Windom, Fri @Hutchinson, Sat vs Breckenridge/Wahpeton

13. Bloomington Kennedy (9-10-1)
The Eagles have been improving as they season has gone on and have one game remaining on the season they will likely lose. It would be great to see them playing Breck in the section final.
This week: Thurs @ St Louis Park, Sat vs Achiever Academy

14. Blake (10-9)
After a 2 goal loss to Breck, the Bears have picked up 3 conference wins which includes a 5-1 thumping of St Paul Academy. They play Breck against to close out the season, and should win the other games on their schedule. With losses to Delano and Orono on their schedule, it’ll be interesting to see how they will be seeded with their recent success.
This week: Thurs @ St Paul Como Park, Sat @ Minnehaha Academy

15. Virginia (15-6-1)
With no “bad losses” on their schedule, the Blue Devils beat a Grand Rapids team this week they previously got beat pretty badly by. There is still speculation, but, as they are undefeated in section play, a win on Thurs would likely wrap up the 2 seed for Virginia…and keep the 1 seed a possibility if Denfeld wins on Monday.
This week: Thurs vs Duluth Marshall, Sat @ Proctor


Teams to watch:

Delano (12-7-1)
This week: Thurs @ Mound-Westonka, Sat @ Holy Family

Alexandria (12-4-3)
This week: Mon vs St Cloud Apollo, Thurs @ River Lakes, Sat @ Little Falls

Orono (14-6)
This week: Mon vs Litchfield, Wed @ Holy Family

Mahtomedi (12-9)
This week: Thurs vs St Thomas Academy, Sat @ Tartan

St Paul Academy (14-6)
This week: Tues @ Breck, Fri vs Providence Academy

blueblood
Posts: 2300
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Location: Tonka

Post by blueblood » Sun Feb 02, 2014 9:28 am

Class A comments:

Section 2A is deepest overall Class A section top to bottom in the state. Blake is too high at #14. You said it yourself, with losses to Orono and Delano,

Based on results to date, my current 2A seedlings are:

1) Breck - decent but beatable.
2) Orono - split w Delano and Better section record. Orono goalie is one of best in state.
3) Delano
4) Kennedy - win over Jags may get them #3 if they play out strong
5) Chaska 3-0-1 in section with tie vs. Kennedy
6) Blake - 1-3 in section. Only quality win is TRF in second gm of season. No wins over any team I have listed above them.

Section 3A HockeyScout
Posts: 358
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Post by Section 3A HockeyScout » Sun Feb 02, 2014 9:36 am

Team to keep an eye on.

Achiever Academy

They have complied a 14-5-2 record. They will play Cathedral on Tuesday and Kennedy on Saturday. I think they can can compete with both. Should they win one or two of those game do they get into the discussion for your poll next week?

Also where do they get seeded in Section 4A because they hardly play any teams in that Section?

HShockeywatcher
Posts: 6848
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:21 pm

Post by HShockeywatcher » Sun Feb 02, 2014 10:35 am

blueblood wrote:Blake is too high at #14. You said it yourself, with losses to Orono and Delano,
They recently beat an SPA team that no one had an issue being just outside the top 10 and many thought should be the top seed in 4A by a score of 5-1.
With two wins over SPA, a win over Mahtomedi and no real "bad losses" they are definitely a hard team to rank.
While I definitely think the games should be used for section seeding, the Delano loss was their first game of the season and the Orono loss was their 7th. They took a 12 day break from games, have since gone 7-5 with their only Class A loss in that time to Breck.
I have never lived by the philosophy that wins are the only way to gauge a team. Losses to good teams are as well

I totally agree they are hard to rank, but I think with the faults of many of the teams ranked last week, including one they beat, they deserve to be mentioned.
blueblood wrote:Section 2A is deepest overall Class A section top to bottom in the state.
Agreed.

Orono will likely be the 2 seed, but I think solid arguments could be made for a lot of different rankings after that. Kennedy does have a solid win over Delano and will likely close the season going 8-1 in their last 9 games.

I'm also curious where St Louis Park will end up. Will their early shut outs of Delano AND Orono simply be discarded because of how they have done since?
Section 3A HockeyScout wrote:Achiever Academy

Also where do they get seeded in Section 4A because they hardly play any teams in that Section?
They have beaten Simley "better" than SSP in either of the games better SSP and Simley. Personally, I don't think the 4 seed is out of the question, while that is more of a testament to the lack of depth in the section, not the quality of AA. Hopefully they are scheduling more 4A teams next year...if they're going to be around.


Just my two cents.

karl(east)
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Post by karl(east) » Sun Feb 02, 2014 11:32 am

Looks pretty good.

I'd give some love for Hermantown to be #2; they've been winning big lately, and while the final scores look similar, they were a lot more convincing in their win over Marshall than Warroad was. The Warriors definitely deserve to be in the top 3, but they've been walking a fine line lately. I suppose a common opponent in Grand Rapids may sort that out, though.

I agree that the biggest question in the top ten is what to do with Breck. I guess I'd be surprised if they make it to State and don't get a top-3 seed, but that doesn't necessarily mean they'd deserve it when they have head-to-head losses to some of the teams right around them. I still think they and Marshall have top-5 talent, but the consistency hasn't been there.

gac85
Posts: 12
Joined: Fri Nov 09, 2012 9:57 pm

Post by gac85 » Sun Feb 02, 2014 11:46 am

I have now seen seven of the top ten teams play and will see Duluth Marshall before the end of the season.

I fully agree with the top ranking of EGF, they are the best team I have seen so far the season.

I would flip Warroad and Hermantown. Hermantown is deeper and seems to have hit their stride as the season progresses. Warroad's top line is dynamic, but it appears their lack of depth may pose issues for them.

I would also put Breck in the fourth spot and move everybody else down one place in the standings.

HShockeywatcher-thanks for all the work you do in posting the Class A rankings every week, I enjoy the read.

HawkeyPower
Posts: 298
Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2008 9:14 am

Post by HawkeyPower » Sun Feb 02, 2014 11:49 am

karl(east) wrote:Looks pretty good.

I'd give some love for Hermantown to be #2; they've been winning big lately, and while the final scores look similar, they were a lot more convincing in their win over Marshall than Warroad was. The Warriors definitely deserve to be in the top 3, but they've been walking a fine line lately. I suppose a common opponent in Grand Rapids may sort that out, though.

I agree that the biggest question in the top ten is what to do with Breck. I guess I'd be surprised if they make it to State and don't get a top-3 seed, but that doesn't necessarily mean they'd deserve it when they have head-to-head losses to some of the teams right around them. I still think they and Marshall have top-5 talent, but the consistency hasn't been there.
There has been numerous like opponents between Warroad and Hermantown.
Warroad beat Denfeld by more.
Hermantown beat Bemidji, Warroad lost
Hermantown beat TRF,SCC and DM by bigger margins then Warroad
Warroad is a talented team and belong at 3. I might be a little bias, but Hermantown belongs at 2. Its crystal clear to most. Just a little cloudy for some.

And according to the poll I believe Breck should be higher and they may well be playing on Saturday in a month.

HShockeywatcher
Posts: 6848
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:21 pm

Post by HShockeywatcher » Sun Feb 02, 2014 3:07 pm

Three main general point to make:
1. I have never intentionally used anything I have seen in person to influence rankings. Even with the teams I have seen, you can't see all the games. I have always used the results of the games played to rank teams.
2. One game doesn't (and can't) make a season. Along with that, beating a team someone else has beaten can't be the only reason to put some team ahead of another. There are too many issues with that; this year is a great example.
3. I try [my best] to rank the team as they are today, not as they were in December. Teams have little control over when they play common opponents relative to other teams, but when they play and what the result is matters.

Breck
Their Class A wins worth noting: Mahtomedi 5-1, Delano 6-3, TRF 9-0, EGF 6-0 and SCC 6-1. 4 of those wins came in the first 8 games of the season and all of those wins came previous to their 3-2 loss to Marshall and their 3-1 loss to Totino. When you beat #1 and #4 (they were much lower at the time) and follow that up with losses to #5 and #6, it's hard to put them ahead of teams they lost to in the last 7 games.
If I were a betting man, I would bet on them to be in the final on Saturday, but I can't ignore what has happened on the ice because of what I think will happen in the future. I'm honestly very curious to see how they end up seeded at state [if they make it]. Depending on who else makes it, I wouldn't be surprised with a seeded of anywhere from 1-4.

Warroad/Hermantown
Just like I didn't agree with Michigan being dropped from #2 when they lost by 3 to #1 Ohio State in 2006, #2 losing to #1 doesn't mean they're not #2.
I find two similar things very curious about the Hermantown supporters. They are very notorious for only pointing out the games that help their team and the same logic that allows them to be ahead of others in their mind is never voiced for other teams to be ahead of them.
Where were the Hermantown faithful calling for New Prague to be ahead of them after the Trojans lost to Eagan "better" than them over the Holiday break?

Common opponents:
Thief River Falls
Hermantown 7-2 W
Warroad 5-0 W

Denfeld
Hermantown 3-2 OT W
Warroad 8-3 W

Duluth Marshall
Hermantown 6-2 W
Warroad 5-2 W

International Falls
Hermantown 10-0 W
Warroad 6-0 W

Cathedral
Hermantown 6-0 W
Warroad 3-0 W

Bemidji
Hermantown 6-2 W
Warroad 3-4 L

Of those comparisons, I'd say 2 go in Warroad's favor, 3 are a wash and 1 goes in Hermantown's favor. Knowing that Warroad's game with Bemidji was 16 games ago, they have been 14-1-1 since and play Bemidji on the road this week, it's hard to take much away from that game for today's rankings.

Let look at the rest of the schedule. I don't care too much about the Wayzata loss; they are a top 5 AA team and it was Hermantown's first game of the season. Hermantown lost to Eagan 1-4 over break and WBL 1-4 recently. In that time, Warroad lost to Rapids 3-5, has beaten Roseau 6-4 and 4-3 home and away, tied EGF and beaten Moorhead 4-3.

I won't speculate on what will happen this week, but I have a hard time using only a common opponent result from a Bemidji team Warroad played 16 games ago to say Hermantown is better. That's really the one thing I take away from the results of their games that's better.
How do you ignore beating Roseau twice and Moorhead?

Anyway, that's just my opinion. I know Hermantown fans love to disagree with me, but that doesn't change my opinion...
HawkeyPower wrote:Hermantown beat TRF,SCC and DM by bigger margins then Warroad
7-2 and 5-0 are the same margin...

The point of the game is to win, it's not to win by more than someone else wins. Without seeing specifically what happened in every game and comparing that, you can't say one team winning by 4 is a better team than a team winning by 3.

Do you really think when two teams shut out a common opponent and one scores a couple more goals, that team is "better" simply because of that?



There's only 9 votes, but if you think Breck should be higher, please give me some feedback on where you'd like them. The two teams ahead of them beat them...

Thanks all. Enjoy the game!

HawkeyPower
Posts: 298
Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2008 9:14 am

Post by HawkeyPower » Sun Feb 02, 2014 5:04 pm

HShockeywatcher wrote:Three main general point to make:
1. I have never intentionally used anything I have seen in person to influence rankings. Even with the teams I have seen, you can't see all the games. I have always used the results of the games played to rank teams.
2. One game doesn't (and can't) make a season. Along with that, beating a team someone else has beaten can't be the only reason to put some team ahead of another. There are too many issues with that; this year is a great example.
3. I try [my best] to rank the team as they are today, not as they were in December. Teams have little control over when they play common opponents relative to other teams, but when they play and what the result is matters.

Breck
Their Class A wins worth noting: Mahtomedi 5-1, Delano 6-3, TRF 9-0, EGF 6-0 and SCC 6-1. 4 of those wins came in the first 8 games of the season and all of those wins came previous to their 3-2 loss to Marshall and their 3-1 loss to Totino. When you beat #1 and #4 (they were much lower at the time) and follow that up with losses to #5 and #6, it's hard to put them ahead of teams they lost to in the last 7 games.
If I were a betting man, I would bet on them to be in the final on Saturday, but I can't ignore what has happened on the ice because of what I think will happen in the future. I'm honestly very curious to see how they end up seeded at state [if they make it]. Depending on who else makes it, I wouldn't be surprised with a seeded of anywhere from 1-4.

Warroad/Hermantown
Just like I didn't agree with Michigan being dropped from #2 when they lost by 3 to #1 Ohio State in 2006, #2 losing to #1 doesn't mean they're not #2.
I find two similar things very curious about the Hermantown supporters. They are very notorious for only pointing out the games that help their team and the same logic that allows them to be ahead of others in their mind is never voiced for other teams to be ahead of them.
Where were the Hermantown faithful calling for New Prague to be ahead of them after the Trojans lost to Eagan "better" than them over the Holiday break?

Common opponents:
Thief River Falls
Hermantown 7-2 W
Warroad 5-0 W

Denfeld
Hermantown 3-2 OT W
Warroad 8-3 W

Duluth Marshall
Hermantown 6-2 W
Warroad 5-2 W

International Falls
Hermantown 10-0 W
Warroad 6-0 W

Cathedral
Hermantown 6-0 W
Warroad 3-0 W

Bemidji
Hermantown 6-2 W
Warroad 3-4 L

Of those comparisons, I'd say 2 go in Warroad's favor, 3 are a wash and 1 goes in Hermantown's favor. Knowing that Warroad's game with Bemidji was 16 games ago, they have been 14-1-1 since and play Bemidji on the road this week, it's hard to take much away from that game for today's rankings.

Let look at the rest of the schedule. I don't care too much about the Wayzata loss; they are a top 5 AA team and it was Hermantown's first game of the season. Hermantown lost to Eagan 1-4 over break and WBL 1-4 recently. In that time, Warroad lost to Rapids 3-5, has beaten Roseau 6-4 and 4-3 home and away, tied EGF and beaten Moorhead 4-3.

I won't speculate on what will happen this week, but I have a hard time using only a common opponent result from a Bemidji team Warroad played 16 games ago to say Hermantown is better. That's really the one thing I take away from the results of their games that's better.
How do you ignore beating Roseau twice and Moorhead?

Anyway, that's just my opinion. I know Hermantown fans love to disagree with me, but that doesn't change my opinion...
HawkeyPower wrote:Hermantown beat TRF,SCC and DM by bigger margins then Warroad
7-2 and 5-0 are the same margin...

The point of the game is to win, it's not to win by more than someone else wins. Without seeing specifically what happened in every game and comparing that, you can't say one team winning by 4 is a better team than a team winning by 3.

Do you really think when two teams shut out a common opponent and one scores a couple more goals, that team is "better" simply because of that?



There's only 9 votes, but if you think Breck should be higher, please give me some feedback on where you'd like them. The two teams ahead of them beat them...

Thanks all. Enjoy the game!
Please point out what I left out to make my argument. you even added a game for me.It sure seems like the Hermantown fans aren't the only ones who use certain games in their favor. Although we can all just discount certain games to fit our argument.
We had this argument already directly and we ended it on having to agree to disagree. You say the loss to Bemidji was 16 games ago, but the close WIN against Denfeld was 16 games ago as well. I think the losses to WBL and Eagan are better losses then Bemidji and Grand Rapids. The same Grand Rapids team that just lost to Virginia.
And a team that scores more goals against a common opponent may not make them better (in your mind) but please tell me how it makes them worse.
And in your list of games above how do you have 2 better games for Warroad. Besides Denfeld (and that WIN was 16 games ago) where is the other. In every game you have listed Hermantown has either won by the same or by more.
Lastly seeing that these are Class A rankings please tell me again who Hermantown has lost to? I know you have a issue with them not playing either EGF or Warroad, but they have pretty much played and beaten everyone else.

As far as Breck is concerned I would have them at #4. They have lost to teams above them but they have a better resume over all, especially with their AA wins.

Juggernaut
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Post by Juggernaut » Sun Feb 02, 2014 5:18 pm

SCC at number 4 seems to be very generous. Other than a recent win over TG, they have no wins against top 10 teams. They are 0-4 against EGF, Warroad, Hermantown and Breck, giving up 18 goals and only scoring 2 against them. I'd have them in the 7 to 10 range on this list.

HawkeyPower
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Post by HawkeyPower » Sun Feb 02, 2014 5:21 pm

You also said in Point#2 that one game can not decide a season. But Hermantown fans should Rank New Prague over Hermantown because they lost to Eagan by more? Despite having a better schedule.
I need to take peoples suggestions better in the future and not react to certain things.

mn miracle man
Posts: 221
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2009 3:51 pm

Post by mn miracle man » Sun Feb 02, 2014 6:36 pm

HawkeyPower wrote:
HShockeywatcher wrote:Three main general point to make:
1. I have never intentionally used anything I have seen in person to influence rankings. Even with the teams I have seen, you can't see all the games. I have always used the results of the games played to rank teams.
2. One game doesn't (and can't) make a season. Along with that, beating a team someone else has beaten can't be the only reason to put some team ahead of another. There are too many issues with that; this year is a great example.
3. I try [my best] to rank the team as they are today, not as they were in December. Teams have little control over when they play common opponents relative to other teams, but when they play and what the result is matters.

Breck
Their Class A wins worth noting: Mahtomedi 5-1, Delano 6-3, TRF 9-0, EGF 6-0 and SCC 6-1. 4 of those wins came in the first 8 games of the season and all of those wins came previous to their 3-2 loss to Marshall and their 3-1 loss to Totino. When you beat #1 and #4 (they were much lower at the time) and follow that up with losses to #5 and #6, it's hard to put them ahead of teams they lost to in the last 7 games.
If I were a betting man, I would bet on them to be in the final on Saturday, but I can't ignore what has happened on the ice because of what I think will happen in the future. I'm honestly very curious to see how they end up seeded at state [if they make it]. Depending on who else makes it, I wouldn't be surprised with a seeded of anywhere from 1-4.

Warroad/Hermantown
Just like I didn't agree with Michigan being dropped from #2 when they lost by 3 to #1 Ohio State in 2006, #2 losing to #1 doesn't mean they're not #2.
I find two similar things very curious about the Hermantown supporters. They are very notorious for only pointing out the games that help their team and the same logic that allows them to be ahead of others in their mind is never voiced for other teams to be ahead of them.
Where were the Hermantown faithful calling for New Prague to be ahead of them after the Trojans lost to Eagan "better" than them over the Holiday break?

Common opponents:
Thief River Falls
Hermantown 7-2 W
Warroad 5-0 W

Denfeld
Hermantown 3-2 OT W
Warroad 8-3 W

Duluth Marshall
Hermantown 6-2 W
Warroad 5-2 W

International Falls
Hermantown 10-0 W
Warroad 6-0 W

Cathedral
Hermantown 6-0 W
Warroad 3-0 W

Bemidji
Hermantown 6-2 W
Warroad 3-4 L

Of those comparisons, I'd say 2 go in Warroad's favor, 3 are a wash and 1 goes in Hermantown's favor. Knowing that Warroad's game with Bemidji was 16 games ago, they have been 14-1-1 since and play Bemidji on the road this week, it's hard to take much away from that game for today's rankings.

Let look at the rest of the schedule. I don't care too much about the Wayzata loss; they are a top 5 AA team and it was Hermantown's first game of the season. Hermantown lost to Eagan 1-4 over break and WBL 1-4 recently. In that time, Warroad lost to Rapids 3-5, has beaten Roseau 6-4 and 4-3 home and away, tied EGF and beaten Moorhead 4-3.

I won't speculate on what will happen this week, but I have a hard time using only a common opponent result from a Bemidji team Warroad played 16 games ago to say Hermantown is better. That's really the one thing I take away from the results of their games that's better.
How do you ignore beating Roseau twice and Moorhead?

Anyway, that's just my opinion. I know Hermantown fans love to disagree with me, but that doesn't change my opinion...
HawkeyPower wrote:Hermantown beat TRF,SCC and DM by bigger margins then Warroad
7-2 and 5-0 are the same margin...

The point of the game is to win, it's not to win by more than someone else wins. Without seeing specifically what happened in every game and comparing that, you can't say one team winning by 4 is a better team than a team winning by 3.

Do you really think when two teams shut out a common opponent and one scores a couple more goals, that team is "better" simply because of that?



There's only 9 votes, but if you think Breck should be higher, please give me some feedback on where you'd like them. The two teams ahead of them beat them...

Thanks all. Enjoy the game!
Please point out what I left out to make my argument. you even added a game for me.It sure seems like the Hermantown fans aren't the only ones who use certain games in their favor. Although we can all just discount certain games to fit our argument.
We had this argument already directly and we ended it on having to agree to disagree. You say the loss to Bemidji was 16 games ago, but the close WIN against Denfeld was 16 games ago as well. I think the losses to WBL and Eagan are better losses then Bemidji and Grand Rapids. The same Grand Rapids team that just lost to Virginia.
And a team that scores more goals against a common opponent may not make them better (in your mind) but please tell me how it makes them worse.
And in your list of games above how do you have 2 better games for Warroad. Besides Denfeld (and that WIN was 16 games ago) where is the other. In every game you have listed Hermantown has either won by the same or by more.
Lastly seeing that these are Class A rankings please tell me again who Hermantown has lost to? I know you have a issue with them not playing either EGF or Warroad, but they have pretty much played and beaten everyone else.

As far as Breck is concerned I would have them at #4. They have lost to teams above them but they have a better resume over all, especially with their AA wins.
Interesting to note:

When Grand Rapids beat Warroad they were 3-0 and coming off a win over Roseau. Not on a stretch going 3-4 where they sit over their last 7 games currently.

When WBL beat Hermantown, they were 1-4 in previous 5 games heading into it (including loss to 8-11 Mounds View). When Eagan beat Hermantown they were 7-4, and on a stretch where they lost 3 of 4 going into that SSP tourney.

If you look at those numbers, you can make the argument that the loss for Warroad to a "bad" GR team may look better than "good" losses to teams like WBL and Eagan.

Aren't numbers fun?

TTpuckster
Posts: 2409
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2006 8:26 am
Location: State of Hockey

Post by TTpuckster » Sun Feb 02, 2014 6:57 pm

These are all good comments and just points out how you could make a case for several teams to be #1 or in the top 5.

I hope this bodes well for great section games and a really good state tournament.

Mankato West and/or Luverne should make the big show a lot more balanced than previous years. I hope it causes a greater attendance for the Class A tourney.

To the great state of hockey. Cheers....
What is a Green Wave anyway?

HawkeyPower
Posts: 298
Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2008 9:14 am

Post by HawkeyPower » Sun Feb 02, 2014 7:19 pm

mn miracle man wrote:
HawkeyPower wrote:
HShockeywatcher wrote:Three main general point to make:
1. I have never intentionally used anything I have seen in person to influence rankings. Even with the teams I have seen, you can't see all the games. I have always used the results of the games played to rank teams.
2. One game doesn't (and can't) make a season. Along with that, beating a team someone else has beaten can't be the only reason to put some team ahead of another. There are too many issues with that; this year is a great example.
3. I try [my best] to rank the team as they are today, not as they were in December. Teams have little control over when they play common opponents relative to other teams, but when they play and what the result is matters.

Breck
Their Class A wins worth noting: Mahtomedi 5-1, Delano 6-3, TRF 9-0, EGF 6-0 and SCC 6-1. 4 of those wins came in the first 8 games of the season and all of those wins came previous to their 3-2 loss to Marshall and their 3-1 loss to Totino. When you beat #1 and #4 (they were much lower at the time) and follow that up with losses to #5 and #6, it's hard to put them ahead of teams they lost to in the last 7 games.
If I were a betting man, I would bet on them to be in the final on Saturday, but I can't ignore what has happened on the ice because of what I think will happen in the future. I'm honestly very curious to see how they end up seeded at state [if they make it]. Depending on who else makes it, I wouldn't be surprised with a seeded of anywhere from 1-4.

Warroad/Hermantown
Just like I didn't agree with Michigan being dropped from #2 when they lost by 3 to #1 Ohio State in 2006, #2 losing to #1 doesn't mean they're not #2.
I find two similar things very curious about the Hermantown supporters. They are very notorious for only pointing out the games that help their team and the same logic that allows them to be ahead of others in their mind is never voiced for other teams to be ahead of them.
Where were the Hermantown faithful calling for New Prague to be ahead of them after the Trojans lost to Eagan "better" than them over the Holiday break?

Common opponents:
Thief River Falls
Hermantown 7-2 W
Warroad 5-0 W

Denfeld
Hermantown 3-2 OT W
Warroad 8-3 W

Duluth Marshall
Hermantown 6-2 W
Warroad 5-2 W

International Falls
Hermantown 10-0 W
Warroad 6-0 W

Cathedral
Hermantown 6-0 W
Warroad 3-0 W

Bemidji
Hermantown 6-2 W
Warroad 3-4 L

Of those comparisons, I'd say 2 go in Warroad's favor, 3 are a wash and 1 goes in Hermantown's favor. Knowing that Warroad's game with Bemidji was 16 games ago, they have been 14-1-1 since and play Bemidji on the road this week, it's hard to take much away from that game for today's rankings.

Let look at the rest of the schedule. I don't care too much about the Wayzata loss; they are a top 5 AA team and it was Hermantown's first game of the season. Hermantown lost to Eagan 1-4 over break and WBL 1-4 recently. In that time, Warroad lost to Rapids 3-5, has beaten Roseau 6-4 and 4-3 home and away, tied EGF and beaten Moorhead 4-3.

I won't speculate on what will happen this week, but I have a hard time using only a common opponent result from a Bemidji team Warroad played 16 games ago to say Hermantown is better. That's really the one thing I take away from the results of their games that's better.
How do you ignore beating Roseau twice and Moorhead?

Anyway, that's just my opinion. I know Hermantown fans love to disagree with me, but that doesn't change my opinion...
HawkeyPower wrote:Hermantown beat TRF,SCC and DM by bigger margins then Warroad
7-2 and 5-0 are the same margin...

The point of the game is to win, it's not to win by more than someone else wins. Without seeing specifically what happened in every game and comparing that, you can't say one team winning by 4 is a better team than a team winning by 3.

Do you really think when two teams shut out a common opponent and one scores a couple more goals, that team is "better" simply because of that?



There's only 9 votes, but if you think Breck should be higher, please give me some feedback on where you'd like them. The two teams ahead of them beat them...

Thanks all. Enjoy the game!
Please point out what I left out to make my argument. you even added a game for me.It sure seems like the Hermantown fans aren't the only ones who use certain games in their favor. Although we can all just discount certain games to fit our argument.
We had this argument already directly and we ended it on having to agree to disagree. You say the loss to Bemidji was 16 games ago, but the close WIN against Denfeld was 16 games ago as well. I think the losses to WBL and Eagan are better losses then Bemidji and Grand Rapids. The same Grand Rapids team that just lost to Virginia.
And a team that scores more goals against a common opponent may not make them better (in your mind) but please tell me how it makes them worse.
And in your list of games above how do you have 2 better games for Warroad. Besides Denfeld (and that WIN was 16 games ago) where is the other. In every game you have listed Hermantown has either won by the same or by more.
Lastly seeing that these are Class A rankings please tell me again who Hermantown has lost to? I know you have a issue with them not playing either EGF or Warroad, but they have pretty much played and beaten everyone else.

As far as Breck is concerned I would have them at #4. They have lost to teams above them but they have a better resume over all, especially with their AA wins.
Interesting to note:

When Grand Rapids beat Warroad they were 3-0 and coming off a win over Roseau. Not on a stretch going 3-4 where they sit over their last 7 games currently.

When WBL beat Hermantown, they were 1-4 in previous 5 games heading into it (including loss to 8-11 Mounds View). When Eagan beat Hermantown they were 7-4, and on a stretch where they lost 3 of 4 going into that SSP tourney.

If you look at those numbers, you can make the argument that the loss for Warroad to a "bad" GR team may look better than "good" losses to teams like WBL and Eagan.

Aren't numbers fun?
You forgot the Bemidji game. 1-2 going into that game. So yes numbers are fun!

hockeydad
Posts: 1379
Joined: Mon Mar 04, 2002 9:57 pm

Post by hockeydad » Sun Feb 02, 2014 10:10 pm

Juggernaut wrote:SCC at number 4 seems to be very generous. Other than a recent win over TG, they have no wins against top 10 teams. They are 0-4 against EGF, Warroad, Hermantown and Breck, giving up 18 goals and only scoring 2 against them. I'd have them in the 7 to 10 range on this list.
SCC also has a win over New Prague, which is a top 10 team. But I agree that No. 4 might be a tad bit high.

mn miracle man
Posts: 221
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2009 3:51 pm

Post by mn miracle man » Sun Feb 02, 2014 10:27 pm

You forgot the Bemidji game. 1-2 going into that game. So yes numbers are fun![/quote]

Their 2 losses were to Grand Rapids (already discussed) and Moorhead (whom Warroad already beat) so a little irrelevant, but Warroad will beat them the second time around so it will be a wash anyways...

Froggy Richards
Posts: 624
Joined: Thu Mar 07, 2013 11:15 am

Post by Froggy Richards » Sun Feb 02, 2014 10:58 pm

HawkeyPower wrote:You also said in Point#2 that one game can not decide a season. But Hermantown fans should Rank New Prague over Hermantown because they lost to Eagan by more? Despite having a better schedule.
I need to take peoples suggestions better in the future and not react to certain things.
Which Private School will Hermantown lose to this year? Will it be in Sections against Marshall, or at State? Breck, perhaps? I think it's pre-ordained, just like the Vikes never making it back to the Super Bowl. I've met Bruce Plante a few times and think he's a great guy. But I have to be honest. I would much rather see his press conference after a loss to a private then if they won. Does that make me a bad guy?????

hockeydad
Posts: 1379
Joined: Mon Mar 04, 2002 9:57 pm

Post by hockeydad » Sun Feb 02, 2014 11:40 pm

Froggy Richards wrote:
HawkeyPower wrote:You also said in Point#2 that one game can not decide a season. But Hermantown fans should Rank New Prague over Hermantown because they lost to Eagan by more? Despite having a better schedule.
I need to take peoples suggestions better in the future and not react to certain things.
Which Private School will Hermantown lose to this year? Will it be in Sections against Marshall, or at State? Breck, perhaps? I think it's pre-ordained, just like the Vikes never making it back to the Super Bowl. I've met Bruce Plante a few times and think he's a great guy. But I have to be honest. I would much rather see his press conference after a loss to a private then if they won. Does that make me a bad guy?????
No, but a bit sadistic perhaps :twisted:

Puck76
Posts: 65
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2011 5:53 am

Post by Puck76 » Mon Feb 03, 2014 5:47 am

hockeydad wrote:
Juggernaut wrote:SCC at number 4 seems to be very generous. Other than a recent win over TG, they have no wins against top 10 teams. They are 0-4 against EGF, Warroad, Hermantown and Breck, giving up 18 goals and only scoring 2 against them. I'd have them in the 7 to 10 range on this list.
SCC also has a win over New Prague, which is a top 10 team. But I agree that No. 4 might be a tad bit high.
Cathedral has wins over Totino, new Prague and Denfield. Say #5 is about right.

Tenoverpar
Posts: 514
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2008 3:40 pm

Let

Post by Tenoverpar » Mon Feb 03, 2014 8:39 am

BRECK will WIN the Class A state title and replace STA as the newly most hated Private...someone cue the "Private School Trash Talk" thread..it's going to heat up

Juggernaut
Posts: 81
Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2010 5:56 am

Post by Juggernaut » Mon Feb 03, 2014 9:37 am

hockeydad wrote:
Juggernaut wrote:
SCC at number 4 seems to be very generous. Other than a recent win over TG, they have no wins against top 10 teams. They are 0-4 against EGF, Warroad, Hermantown and Breck, giving up 18 goals and only scoring 2 against them. I'd have them in the 7 to 10 range on this list.
SCC also has a win over New Prague, which is a top 10 team. But I agree that No. 4 might be a tad bit high.


Cathedral has wins over Totino, new Prague and Denfield. Say #5 is about right.
My mistake. I missed New Prague. Denfield isn't a top 10 team. So I'll change my previous comment to they are in the 6-9 range.

ted2you
Posts: 159
Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 4:02 pm
Location: Chaska

Warroad

Post by ted2you » Mon Feb 03, 2014 12:48 pm

Interesting rankings: By putting Warroad at #2 in spite of losing 5-1 to EGF and being out shot 46-19 on home ice, it sounds as if you are implying that there is a large gap between EGF and the rest of A hockey. I personally felt that loss was bad enough to put Warroad down #3 at the very least behind Hermantown. You can have a field day playing the past match-ups, but I agree when you play someone is critical. Breck hammered EGF and you could make an argument that they have an edge. Some teams match up well against others. IMO Warroad doesn't match up well with EGF, because EGF's Defense can neutralize Warroad's top line and their balance creates a nightmare for Warroad. I don't put any credence in the Breck-EGF game, because EGF played a Saturday afternoon game after beating #1 (at the time) Blaine the night before. I feel EGF is the best team in A hockey with the return of their top scorer has changed their offense and their Defense is by far the best in the state A or AA. At this point in the season EGF is clearly the best team in A. They beat Roseau 8-3, Moorhead 4-1, and have given up a total of 10 goals in their last 10 games. While I would put Hermantown #2, and Warroad #3, perhaps only Breck (when focused) has the depth to play with them and an EGF victory is not a given.

CreaseMonkey
Posts: 124
Joined: Wed Feb 07, 2007 5:17 pm

Post by CreaseMonkey » Mon Feb 03, 2014 7:18 pm

So... If Warroad should drop because they lost to the #1 team in the state, what should happen with Hermantown now that they tied Denfeld? Warroad beat Denfeld 8-3, and they are the most recent common opponent of both teams.

Seriously, none of this means anything... It will all shake out in the playoffs, as it should.

puckbreath
Posts: 692
Joined: Tue Oct 15, 2013 10:08 pm

Post by puckbreath » Mon Feb 03, 2014 11:13 pm

CreaseMonkey wrote:So... If Warroad should drop because they lost to the #1 team in the state, what should happen with Hermantown now that they tied Denfeld? Warroad beat Denfeld 8-3, and they are the most recent common opponent of both teams.

Seriously, none of this means anything... It will all shake out in the playoffs, as it should.
=D>

ted2you
Posts: 159
Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 4:02 pm
Location: Chaska

Playoffs

Post by ted2you » Tue Feb 04, 2014 10:55 am

If speculating wasn't half the fun, why would we bother being here. :D

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