I would maybe word that "the hottest goalie come playoff time will get their team through the section", because I can name at least three different very good goalies in this section. That being said, IMO this section is New Prague's to lose because they have the best all around team in front of their tendy of those three.grandmeadowhockeyfan wrote:I think that more than any other section in the state that it will come down to goaltending. There is one maybe two proliferic scoring teams in the section, so the team with a great goaltender will get hot and run through the section.
Section 1A
Moderators: Mitch Hawker, east hockey, karl(east)
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Kinda_Normal_Tendy
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curtiscurve
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So, bear with me here as I am going to do my best to look into my crystal ball and predict how this section will pan out and where everyone will be seeded.
1 - New Prague- 10-5 (5-0 in the section); Predicted finish 18-7 (6-0). With only one section game remaining, They have the #1 locked up (win or lose in my mind). I do believe they will win that game vs Lourdes and finish strong going 8-2 in their last 10. They are the favorite here, but if they play like they did vs Delano, they may not even reach the finals.
2 - Faribault- 10-3-1 (5-2-1); Predicted finish 16-9-1 (10-5-1). Really having a nice season so far. They have 8 remaining section games and 11 overall. They should finish out strong even though they have some tough games on the road. Very well coached team and if they continue to play the way they have since correcting a slow start, the Falcons could be a scary team come play-offs.
3 - Albert Lea - 8-7 (3-5); Predicted finish 16-9 (9-6). I realize this is a bold prediction, but the Roy Nystrom factor has to be taken into consideration. Looking at their final 10 games, I see them at worse going 8-2 (and could very possibly win out). They will clean up their section record by going 6-1 in their final 7 section games with their only loss when they visit Faribault, which will keep them out of the 2 spot. It would not suprise me one bit if the Tigers are representing 1A in St. Paul come March.
4 - Northfield - 7-5-2 (4-2-1); Predicted finish 15-8-2 (9-4-1). Northfield has 11 games remaining and 7 of those games being section games. I predict they will finish strong going 7-2 in the section with their only losses coming to Albert Lea and Faribault, both on the road. Their loss against Winona sticks out like a sore thumb and will de the trump card for Faribault and Albert Lea's argument for being seeded higher than the Raiders. Yes that was early in the season and a fluke, but it still counts. Regardless of where they end up, Northfield is the real deal and has proven they can play with anyone. They are very familiar with New Prague and if they get to the semi-finals, a match-up against the Trojans will be a classic rivalry game which I think benefits the underdog.
5. Mankato West - 8-5-2 (7-3-2): Predicted finish 13-10-2 (10-5-2). If the season ended today, West would probably earn the 3 seed. But since it doesn't and they have a rough remaining schedule, they will get jumped by Northfield and Albert Lea. I believe they will go 3-2 in their final 5 section games, losing to both teams that will jump them. They will be a tough opponent come play-offs. The Scarlett's know how to win and that could give them the advantage in the play-offs, but making a run will be more difficult by having to play on the road in the quarter finals.
6. Waseca - 10-4-1 (3-0-1); Predicted finish 18-7-1 (7-0-1). This is by far the best Waseca team in, possibly ever. They have 4 section games remaining and should win them all. Unfortunately for them, none of the section wins will come against the top 5 teams. They made a statement in their 3-3 tie with Faribault and as long as they get the win over East, they should be seeded here at 6.
7. Mankato East - 9-8 (7-3): Predicted finish 12-13 (9-6). East has had a nice first half of the year. Pulling off some big wins and especially a sweep of Albert Lea. They have 5 remaining section games and unfortunately for them, the 3 big games are on the road. They will drop those games to Faribault, Waseca and LSPH which will drop them to #7. They have beat a lot of the teams ahead of them, so they should have confidence going into the play-offs Getting such a low seed with a respectable over all and section record will be good motivation and should light a fire under the Cougars, which will play to their advantage.
8. Rochester Lourdes - 3-11-2 (0-2-1); Predicted finish 6-17-2 (1-4-1). I believe Lourdes is probably a top 5 team in the section, but since they have a limited number of section games, it is hard to argue for them to be any higher than 8. Yes, they play a difficult schedule, but they continue to lose and their record is not good. If they were to be a .500 team with their schedule, I could see the argument to be seeded higher, but unless they rattle off 7 wins in their last 9 games, they do not belong ahead of the teams in the top 7. With that said, a quarter final match up with New Prague could be the best 1 vs 8 game in the state.
9. LeSueur-Henderson/St. Peter - 10-4 (2-1); Predicted finish 15-10 (4-4). This is a pretty good team. They beat West, but unless they can get a win over Faribault and Waseca, the body of work just does not justify a top 8 seed. They are a step ahead of seed 10-13, but they will have a tough match-up in the play-in game to advance to the quarters.
10. Red Wing - 2-14-1 (1-6-1); Predicted finish 3-21-1 (2-11-1) Let's be real here, their record is not good. With that said, They beat Winona in their only meeting and tied Austin. I see them beating Austin when they play them again, but that will be it for their wins. Leaving them with only 3, but they will be against the teams below them so it is a no brainer seeding them ahead of Austin and Winona. I am giving them the nod over LaCrescent based on LaCrescent's limited action in the section (only wins against Austin and Winona) and the fact that the Wingers have played some very close games with the section opponents. Could be a tough match-up for East in the 7-10 play-in game.
11. LaCrescent - 10-6 (2-1); Predicted finish 15-10 (2-3). Hard to get a good idea of what type of team they have or how they will match up with other teams in the section. They have only played Austin, Winona, and Waseca thus far. They do have LHSP and Waseca left, but I do not see them winning either of those games.
12. Winona - 4-13 (3-5); Predicted finish 6-19 (3-9). Pretty simple here. Winona beat Austin twice, and even picked up a win over Northfield. There is even a possibility where Winona plays Northfield (if Northfield drops to 5) in the play-in game giving the Winhawks a boost knowing they can beat them.
13. Austin - 3-12-1 (0-10-1); Predicted finish 3-21-1 (0-16-1). Going winless in the section leaves no seeding options but 13th. They do have 6 section games remaining, but I do not see the Packers picking up a W in any of those games. Austin played West tough and if West moves up to 4, they would be the Packers first round opponent. Just like the possible Winona/Northfield match-up, a West/Austin meeting would provide much needed confidence to Austin after a dismal season.
Hopefully I didn't offend anyone while providing some analysis on the section and the upcoming playoffs. Should be a great section tournament where all 4 quarter final games should be very competitive.
1 - New Prague- 10-5 (5-0 in the section); Predicted finish 18-7 (6-0). With only one section game remaining, They have the #1 locked up (win or lose in my mind). I do believe they will win that game vs Lourdes and finish strong going 8-2 in their last 10. They are the favorite here, but if they play like they did vs Delano, they may not even reach the finals.
2 - Faribault- 10-3-1 (5-2-1); Predicted finish 16-9-1 (10-5-1). Really having a nice season so far. They have 8 remaining section games and 11 overall. They should finish out strong even though they have some tough games on the road. Very well coached team and if they continue to play the way they have since correcting a slow start, the Falcons could be a scary team come play-offs.
3 - Albert Lea - 8-7 (3-5); Predicted finish 16-9 (9-6). I realize this is a bold prediction, but the Roy Nystrom factor has to be taken into consideration. Looking at their final 10 games, I see them at worse going 8-2 (and could very possibly win out). They will clean up their section record by going 6-1 in their final 7 section games with their only loss when they visit Faribault, which will keep them out of the 2 spot. It would not suprise me one bit if the Tigers are representing 1A in St. Paul come March.
4 - Northfield - 7-5-2 (4-2-1); Predicted finish 15-8-2 (9-4-1). Northfield has 11 games remaining and 7 of those games being section games. I predict they will finish strong going 7-2 in the section with their only losses coming to Albert Lea and Faribault, both on the road. Their loss against Winona sticks out like a sore thumb and will de the trump card for Faribault and Albert Lea's argument for being seeded higher than the Raiders. Yes that was early in the season and a fluke, but it still counts. Regardless of where they end up, Northfield is the real deal and has proven they can play with anyone. They are very familiar with New Prague and if they get to the semi-finals, a match-up against the Trojans will be a classic rivalry game which I think benefits the underdog.
5. Mankato West - 8-5-2 (7-3-2): Predicted finish 13-10-2 (10-5-2). If the season ended today, West would probably earn the 3 seed. But since it doesn't and they have a rough remaining schedule, they will get jumped by Northfield and Albert Lea. I believe they will go 3-2 in their final 5 section games, losing to both teams that will jump them. They will be a tough opponent come play-offs. The Scarlett's know how to win and that could give them the advantage in the play-offs, but making a run will be more difficult by having to play on the road in the quarter finals.
6. Waseca - 10-4-1 (3-0-1); Predicted finish 18-7-1 (7-0-1). This is by far the best Waseca team in, possibly ever. They have 4 section games remaining and should win them all. Unfortunately for them, none of the section wins will come against the top 5 teams. They made a statement in their 3-3 tie with Faribault and as long as they get the win over East, they should be seeded here at 6.
7. Mankato East - 9-8 (7-3): Predicted finish 12-13 (9-6). East has had a nice first half of the year. Pulling off some big wins and especially a sweep of Albert Lea. They have 5 remaining section games and unfortunately for them, the 3 big games are on the road. They will drop those games to Faribault, Waseca and LSPH which will drop them to #7. They have beat a lot of the teams ahead of them, so they should have confidence going into the play-offs Getting such a low seed with a respectable over all and section record will be good motivation and should light a fire under the Cougars, which will play to their advantage.
8. Rochester Lourdes - 3-11-2 (0-2-1); Predicted finish 6-17-2 (1-4-1). I believe Lourdes is probably a top 5 team in the section, but since they have a limited number of section games, it is hard to argue for them to be any higher than 8. Yes, they play a difficult schedule, but they continue to lose and their record is not good. If they were to be a .500 team with their schedule, I could see the argument to be seeded higher, but unless they rattle off 7 wins in their last 9 games, they do not belong ahead of the teams in the top 7. With that said, a quarter final match up with New Prague could be the best 1 vs 8 game in the state.
9. LeSueur-Henderson/St. Peter - 10-4 (2-1); Predicted finish 15-10 (4-4). This is a pretty good team. They beat West, but unless they can get a win over Faribault and Waseca, the body of work just does not justify a top 8 seed. They are a step ahead of seed 10-13, but they will have a tough match-up in the play-in game to advance to the quarters.
10. Red Wing - 2-14-1 (1-6-1); Predicted finish 3-21-1 (2-11-1) Let's be real here, their record is not good. With that said, They beat Winona in their only meeting and tied Austin. I see them beating Austin when they play them again, but that will be it for their wins. Leaving them with only 3, but they will be against the teams below them so it is a no brainer seeding them ahead of Austin and Winona. I am giving them the nod over LaCrescent based on LaCrescent's limited action in the section (only wins against Austin and Winona) and the fact that the Wingers have played some very close games with the section opponents. Could be a tough match-up for East in the 7-10 play-in game.
11. LaCrescent - 10-6 (2-1); Predicted finish 15-10 (2-3). Hard to get a good idea of what type of team they have or how they will match up with other teams in the section. They have only played Austin, Winona, and Waseca thus far. They do have LHSP and Waseca left, but I do not see them winning either of those games.
12. Winona - 4-13 (3-5); Predicted finish 6-19 (3-9). Pretty simple here. Winona beat Austin twice, and even picked up a win over Northfield. There is even a possibility where Winona plays Northfield (if Northfield drops to 5) in the play-in game giving the Winhawks a boost knowing they can beat them.
13. Austin - 3-12-1 (0-10-1); Predicted finish 3-21-1 (0-16-1). Going winless in the section leaves no seeding options but 13th. They do have 6 section games remaining, but I do not see the Packers picking up a W in any of those games. Austin played West tough and if West moves up to 4, they would be the Packers first round opponent. Just like the possible Winona/Northfield match-up, a West/Austin meeting would provide much needed confidence to Austin after a dismal season.
Hopefully I didn't offend anyone while providing some analysis on the section and the upcoming playoffs. Should be a great section tournament where all 4 quarter final games should be very competitive.
I like what you've done here, and agree with it except I think Lourdes gets better than an 8 seed, how much better though? I have no idea.
I do think the Big Nine teams will be seeded in order of conference finish with the rest put in along the way. At least that's what has happend in the past.
I also agree with your take on Albert Lea.
I do think the Big Nine teams will be seeded in order of conference finish with the rest put in along the way. At least that's what has happend in the past.
I also agree with your take on Albert Lea.
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Chalk_Talk
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This is a big section seeding game today.
West (8-5-2) travels to Northfield (7-5-2). 7:30 pm
These 2 teams tied the last time they met.
West is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games, their last game was a 7-2 win over Winona.
Northfield is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games, their last game was a 3-2 win over Albert Lea
Any thoughts or insight?
West (8-5-2) travels to Northfield (7-5-2). 7:30 pm
These 2 teams tied the last time they met.
West is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games, their last game was a 7-2 win over Winona.
Northfield is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games, their last game was a 3-2 win over Albert Lea
Any thoughts or insight?
I still think the Big Nine teams get seeded by conference standings and those could change dramatically in the next week or so, West has a backlog of 4 point games to play still. New Prague is still pretty much a lock at #1 but after that it's a crap shoot with West probably in there somewhere. The Big Nine teams keep beating each other while LeSeuer is picking up wins and I'd put them in the top 4 as of now because they beat West and have a win over a pretty good Hutchinson squad, they play East soon as well as Faribault and Waseca twice so they control their own destiny. East and Northfield the other two teams I think that are in the mix for a top 4 seed.
Lourdes has a couple of key section games remaining with Albert Lea and New Prague, a couple of wins would go a long ways to improving their lot come sections otherwise they might be heading on the road come playoffs. The other tough team to seed to me is Faribault, they have a nice record, beat West but lost to East and tied Waseca.
Even at the bottom, Austin is playing much better. 9 of the 13 teams should end up with winning records and it's likely a team with 15 or more wins goes on the road for a first round game.
Lourdes has a couple of key section games remaining with Albert Lea and New Prague, a couple of wins would go a long ways to improving their lot come sections otherwise they might be heading on the road come playoffs. The other tough team to seed to me is Faribault, they have a nice record, beat West but lost to East and tied Waseca.
Even at the bottom, Austin is playing much better. 9 of the 13 teams should end up with winning records and it's likely a team with 15 or more wins goes on the road for a first round game.
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urban iceman
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A lot of parity in this section this year. I still see NP as the team to beat but they are, like a lot of teams in the section, very vunerable to upsets due to heavy graduation's from previous year. I still think Lourdes and Faribault will challenge along with Northfield, who seems to always turn it up a notch come sections! Darkhorse-LSP.
fwiw regarding faribault think hub has the wrong score regarding east game last night. faribault daily news reports "Tyler Becker scored just 10 seconds into overtime as the Falcons topped Mankato East/Loyola 5-4 in a Big 9 Conference game on Thursday at Faribault Ice Arena. " it does look like hub has faribault losing to east early in the season though
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grandmeadowhockeyfan
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There have been so many one goal games in section makes it even harder to seed. Wow! Every time I look at teams and think I have them pretty well figured out a high seeded team plays a one goal game with a low seeded team. Good teams should be able to win by wider margins . But the better teams don't. Also watch the new Prague rank on LPH keeps on dropping! They will be unranked by the time the playoffs start! If Lourdes beats them will they be ranked?
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urban iceman
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No team in 1A or 3A should be ranked come the end of season, like I said it's a down year for these teams losing so many to grads. But the section tourneys will be entertaining in both!grandmeadowhockeyfan wrote:There have been so many one goal games in section makes it even harder to seed. Wow! Every time I look at teams and think I have them pretty well figured out a high seeded team plays a one goal game with a low seeded team. Good teams should be able to win by wider margins . But the better teams don't. Also watch the new Prague rank on LPH keeps on dropping! They will be unranked by the time the playoffs start! If Lourdes beats them will they be ranked?
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Section 3A HockeyScout
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Great point.urban iceman wrote:No team in 1A or 3A should be ranked come the end of season, like I said it's a down year for these teams losing so many to grads. But the section tourneys will be entertaining in both!grandmeadowhockeyfan wrote:There have been so many one goal games in section makes it even harder to seed. Wow! Every time I look at teams and think I have them pretty well figured out a high seeded team plays a one goal game with a low seeded team. Good teams should be able to win by wider margins . But the better teams don't. Also watch the new Prague rank on LPH keeps on dropping! They will be unranked by the time the playoffs start! If Lourdes beats them will they be ranked?
Still some good young clubs and great that unlike in AA class A always to Southern Town (Hopefully not Lourdes) a chance to get to the Tourney and GROW their program
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GopherPuck15
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GopherPuck15
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Ready2GoYet
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I agree with previous comments, I think there are a number of teams that could emerge from 1A, from New Prague and West to Northfield, Albert Lea, Faribault, and Lourdes, and even a shot for East who have really come a ways the last couple years. I don't see anyone being seeded at State. From the teams I have gotten to watch, I've seen some good top lines, but not a lot of depth on any. As such, in addition to goaltending and discipline (staying out of the box), I think seeding for the playoffs will also be a factor to get favorable match-ups.
Northfield-Faribault no score after 1 period.
Northfield-Faribault no score after 1 period.
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grandmeadowhockeyfan
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GopherPuck15
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Whoever wins the Albert Lea vs. Lourdes game will likely determine the seed mixed in with big 9 standings. So, if Lourdes wins, they're ahead of Albert Lea by one seed, if AL wins, they're one sees ahead of RL.grandmeadowhockeyfan wrote:I have heard a lot about seedings correlating closely with the big nine standings. That is fine but the big question is where would you seed a roch Lourdes team. record is awful, do play a tough schedule, keep every game real close when they do lose. Thoughts?
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grandmeadowhockeyfan
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GopherPuck15
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If they beat New Prague that would be something.grandmeadowhockeyfan wrote:So you are guessing what seed number after the albert lea game. What if the beat new Prague also
They're 0-1-1 currently in the Section. Let's say the win out in the section, 3-1-1. Wins over New Prague, Albert Lea, and Red Wing..
5 seed maybe? 6 if Faribault finishes strong?
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GopherPuck15
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grandmeadowhockeyfan
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Of the teams in section one I think Lourdes will be the most difficult to seed. They don't play as many in section games, they play harder competition. Seems like the last few years their record has been bad but still got a pass because of the competition. I think if you ask 100 people where to rank them you would get some with them as high as three and others with them at seven or eight. I am far from a Lourdes backer but I would place them at five seed.
I would be fairly confident that they end up still playing on semifinal Saturday in section one. The speed with which they have had to play when playing these good teams will make them a step quicker to react during a game and their goalie is not incredible like last year, but is still very good.
I would be fairly confident that they end up still playing on semifinal Saturday in section one. The speed with which they have had to play when playing these good teams will make them a step quicker to react during a game and their goalie is not incredible like last year, but is still very good.
Seems like goaltending is usually a key come playoffs. If so this year, I'd pick New Prague to win section 1A.
IMHO New Prague didn't graduate their most important player from last year, G Connor Wagner. Last season in the playoffs Wagner came up huge, with back to back shutouts in the first two rounds, followed by a spectacular showing in a 3-2 win against West in the final, despite NP being outshot 34-15. As NP Coach Lonke said in an interview afterwards, "If it wasn't for Wagner, we aren't having this conversation".
This year Wagner has a 1.93 GAA and a .919 save pct, both big improvements over 2013-14, despite NP joining the Wright County conference, which gave them 2 games each vs Holy Family and Delano (the Trojans also played non-conf games vs. #1 Hermantown and Jefferson).
Lots of good teams in 1A again this year, just saying if Wagner takes it up a notch for the playoffs like he did last year, hard to see how anybody else in Sec 1A goes to state.
IMHO New Prague didn't graduate their most important player from last year, G Connor Wagner. Last season in the playoffs Wagner came up huge, with back to back shutouts in the first two rounds, followed by a spectacular showing in a 3-2 win against West in the final, despite NP being outshot 34-15. As NP Coach Lonke said in an interview afterwards, "If it wasn't for Wagner, we aren't having this conversation".
This year Wagner has a 1.93 GAA and a .919 save pct, both big improvements over 2013-14, despite NP joining the Wright County conference, which gave them 2 games each vs Holy Family and Delano (the Trojans also played non-conf games vs. #1 Hermantown and Jefferson).
Lots of good teams in 1A again this year, just saying if Wagner takes it up a notch for the playoffs like he did last year, hard to see how anybody else in Sec 1A goes to state.
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grandmeadowhockeyfan
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grandmeadowhockeyfan
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