AA Rankings for 2/15/15 and Section Preview

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karl(east)
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AA Rankings for 2/15/15 and Section Preview

Post by karl(east) » Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:33 pm

With 25 games now in the books, it’s time to put all the rankings aside and play our way down to eight State Tournament participants. As always, this calls for a change in format. I’ve listed my top 25 first, then offer comments on each team within their sections.

1. Lakeville North (25-0)
2. Edina (22-1-2)
3. Eden Prairie (16-9)
4. St. Thomas Academy (21-4)
5. Hill-Murray (18-7)
6. Elk River (20-4-1)
7. Blaine (19-5-1)
8. Holy Family (17-6-2)
9. White Bear Lake (20-5)
10. Bemidji (20-3-2)
11. Wayzata (11-11-3)
12. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (14-9-2)
13. Prior Lake (16-8-1)
14. Minnetonka (12-11-2)
15. Moorhead (15-8-2)
16. Grand Rapids (13-10-2)
17. Burnsville (13-10-2)
18. Farmington (17-7-1)
19. Duluth East (11-10-4)
20. Lakeville South (15-9-1)
21. Anoka (16-7-2)
22. Hopkins (12-11-2)
23. Cretin-Derham Hall (14-6-5)
24. Bloomington Jefferson (13-10-2)
25. Centennial (15-9-1)
Honorable Mention: Stillwater, St. Michael-Albertville, Roseville

1AA
1. Lakeville North (25-0/#1)
-Put it in the record books: the Panthers are the fourth undefeated team of the two-class era, and the first since 2007 Roseau. The pressure is on, and there were some adventurous games down the stretch, but they’re sitting pretty, and roughed up their top two section opponents in their most recent meetings. Either one could conceivably give them a game, but it will be a very memorable upset if the Panthers aren’t playing in primetime at the Xcel Center in two and a half weeks.
2. Lakeville South (15-9-1/#20)
-Final week losses to Duluth East and Burnsville drop the Cougars some heading into sections, but they have a couple great players, have beaten Farmington twice, and have the rivalry going for them against North, so they have at least some chance of making this interestin.g
3. Farmington (17-7-1/#18)
-The Tigers had a very solid year, but went winless against the Lakevilles, and are thus relegated to the 3-seed. Beating South isn’t out of the question, and they did give North a good game a long time ago, but that’s a very tough road to travel.
4. Rochester Mayo
5. Rochester Century
6. Rochester John Marshall
7. Owatonna
8. Dodge County

2AA
1. Edina (22-1-2/#2)
-Someone finally gave the Hornets a close game this past week, but if that’s the most we can say against them, they’re in awfully good shape. They seem to be locking down in preparation for the playoffs, and while there are a couple of decent teams here, it will take a lot to deny them a ninth straight Tournament berth.
2. Prior Lake (16-8-1/#13)
-Closed out their season with a decisive 8-1 win over Rosemount, who’d beaten them a month ago. If they can beat Burnsville for a third time, they’ll make their first ever AA section final and get a crack at Edina. Anything beyond that would be miracle material, but it has happened.
3. Burnsville (13-10-2/#17)
-After three straight shutouts, the Blaze settled for a tie with Farmington in their last game. The consistency hasn’t quite been there, but with their strong goalie and defense, they could give Prior Lake and even Edina an interesting run if enough goes right. They have an uphill battle ahead of them, though, and will have to tighten up and pick their spots offensively to pull it off.
4. Bloomington Jefferson (13-10-2/#24)
-Closed out with a tie against Cretin, which doesn’t change much ranking-wise. They’ve been decent all year long, but assuming they get by old friend Holy Angels, Edina will pose an entirely different sort of challenge.
5. Holy Angels
-Have been hovering on the bubble and could give Jefferson a good run.
6. Chanhassen
7. Shakopee

3AA
1. St. Thomas Academy (21-4/#4)
-Dropped a game to Holy Family, and had some issues with sloppy breakouts and an inability to finish. They have plenty of talent, but there are some cracks in the walls, and I dropped them to #4 because I believe Eden Prairie deserves the 3-seed if they come out of 6AA. The Cadets, meanwhile, have the largest ranking gap between the top two teams in a section. That would seem to give them a smooth trip to State, but stranger things have happened.
2. Cretin-Derham Hall (14-6-5/#23)
-Lost a shot at a conference title in the loss to White Bear, and rather fittingly ended things with yet another tie, this one against Bloomington Jefferson. They have the best shot at St. Thomas in the section, but they still face long odds, and will have to work just to get that shot. As so often is the case in the playoffs, defense will be the key.
3. Eastview
-Drop from the top 25 to accommodate other teams, but gave Cretin a one-goal game back in December, and remain relevant here.
4. Rosemount
-Seem equally capable of giving St. Thomas a game or getting blown out.
5. East Ridge
6. Eagan
7. Woodbury
8. Hastings
9. Apple Valley
10. Park

4AA
1. Hill-Murray (18-7/#5)
-Needed overtime to get by Moorhead, but got the job done in the end, and are once again the top seed in 4AA. This defense-first squad is low-scoring enough that Roseville might have a chance of making things interesting in the semis, but all signs point toward a thriller in the final against White Bear.
2. White Bear Lake (20-5/#9)
-The Bears had a few tight games in their final few, but a win over Cretin sealed a Suburban East title, and their only losses since the new year are to top-flight teams. This is the closest they’ve been to Hill talent-wise in a decade, so the time is now if they want to get back to the X. First, they’ll have to get by Stillwater, who was their kryptonite last season.
3. Stillwater (17-8)
-Wrapped up a strong SEC season with a win over Park, but their lone semi-quality win was against Cretin in December, so they look to be an even longer shot for a section title than they were last season. Still, the teams above them are beatable, and if they’ve done it once, they can do it again.
4. Roseville
5. Mounds View
6. Tartan
7. Irondale
8. North St. Paul

5AA
1. Blaine (19-5-1/#7)
-Like most of the Northwest Suburban’s top teams, the Bengals had no trouble finishing off the weaker half of the conference in their final week. They haven’t lost in their last 14, and have a lot of momentum going into sections; still, there have been enough narrow results against non-elite teams to leave some questions over who will come out of 5AA. If they can lock down defensively, they have the talent to do it, and would give this section its best shot at a win at State since 2009.
2. Anoka (16-7-2/#21)
-Like Blaine, the Tornadoes have finished on a strong note, and have earned their highest seed since 2008. They will have to figure out how to beat Centennial, who’s beaten them twice, but if they pull it off, they’ve done well enough against Blaine this season to have a very real shot at a section title. They also have some unfinished business with first-round opponent Rogers, who beat them earlier in the year.
3. Centennial (15-9-1/#25)
-A season-closing tie with Totino-Grace may have cost the Cougars the 2-seed, and disrupts an otherwise quality run down the stretch. Still, it amounts to a rematch with Anoka either way. They haven’t been dominant, but there position right now isn’t all that different from last season’s, and a third straight tournament is a real possibility.
4. Maple Grove (12-13)
-The Crimson’s regular season didn’t really go as expected, though they have done enough to stay fairly relevant, and have split two one-goal games with Blaine, who they’ll likely play in the semis. They have a chance to redeem themselves yet.
5. Osseo
6. Champlin Park
7. Rogers
8. Coon Rapids

6AA
1. Eden Prairie (16-9/#3)
-Shut out in their finale against Edina, but I nudged the Eagles up a spot in the rankings, as they’ve had a somewhat stronger finish to the year than Hill. They’ve been the best 6AA team down the stretch, and with a strong defense and two top-flight forwards, they’re well-built for playoff success so long as they can generate a balanced attack. With 7 teams in the section, they have a bye into the section semifinals against either Holy Family or Benilde; they split with the Red Knights and didn’t see the Fire in the regular season.
2. Minnetonka (12-11-2/#14)
-Gave Edina a pretty good game this week, but failed to put away Duluth East, keeping them from climbing in the rankings. They were also the recipient of a very generous seed here, giving them what should be an easy first round game (though Armstrong/Cooper did beat them in December!). They don’t have any obvious weaknesses and should be right there with everyone else in the section, but even with the helpful seed, the road will not be easy.
3. Wayzata (11-11-3/#11)
-The Trojans continued their enigmatic ways in the final week of the season, pulling out an important win over Benilde but settling for a tie with Hopkins in their finale. They get those Royals again this week, and we’ll see whether the team that tied them or the team that beat them 5-1 shows up. The talent is there, but this group needs to put things together or it will be a long, question-filled offseason.
4. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (14-9-2/#12)
-A narrow loss to Wayzata costs the Red Knights a top-2 seed in the section, and leaves them with a difficult first round opponent. They’ve got the goaltending and depth to make a run in 6AA, but they lack a shutdown defense or the star power of Eden Prairie and Wayzata. They went 1-0-1 against Holy Family this year.
5. Holy Family (17-6-2/#8)
-A big win over St. Thomas Academy has the Fire on fire heading into the playoffs, with an 11-game winning streak that started against Wayzata. For their trouble, they did no better than the 5-seed, leaving them with the hardest path of anyone to State, despite the nice ranking. They’ve got the front-end talent, and they finally look to be playing like a cohesive unit.
6. Hopkins (12-11-2/#22)
-While they were short on wins in the Lake, the Royals were a pest from start to finish, including a season-closing tie with Wayzata. They figure to be much the same in the 6AA playoffs, as they take on the Trojans again in the first round.
7. Armstrong/Cooper

7AA
1. Elk River (20-4-1/#6)
-Like conference rival Blaine, the Elks haven’t done much to put away doubts against the chase pack nipping at their heels, but the record speaks for itself, and they are the clear top seed in 7AA. So long a thin defense and young goalie holds up, they have the horses to win it. They’re the only team in the section to get a real first round pass, but things get interesting after that, as they will face either wily Cloquet or an eager St. Michael-Albertville squad. Time to see if they can put an end to many years of frustration at Amsoil.
2. Grand Rapids (13-10-2/#16)
-Slipped past Duluth Denfeld to wrap up a wild ride of a regular season; one could see them rolling through the section or losing to Forest Lake in the quarterfinals, depending which team shows up. Their keys are similar to Elk River’s; they’ve shown real defensive improvement and have a couple big scorers, and if they can find some confidence and get good contributions from their depth players, they have as good a chance as anyone.
3. Duluth East (11-10-4/#19)
-It wasn’t a banner year for the Hounds, but they closed on a fairly strong note with a win over Lakeville South and another tie against a quality team, Minnetonka. They lack the upper-class stars of the two above them, but they’re probably deeper, and if they can stick with their defensive system and still generate enough offense, they could yet find their way back to St. Paul for a seventh straight year.
4. St. Michael-Albertville
-Hard to gauge given their competition, but they seem to have upped their game in the past few weeks, and are as much in the mix as anyone in this section. We’ll see how they do now that they’re on the big stage. If they beat Cloquet again, the semifinal with Elk River
5. Cloquet
-A loss to St. Michael-Albertville leaves the Jacks on the road, but history suggests they’re a pretty real upset threat here.
6. Andover
-A decent upset threat to Duluth East with their strong goalie and a handful of star skaters.
7. Forest Lake
8. St. Francis (Def. Cambridge 7-1)
9. Cambridge (Eliminated)

8AA
1. Bemidji (20-3-2/#10)
-The Lumberjacks finished off Thief River to secure a 20-win regular season. This is the best shot anyone has had to break up the Moorhead-Roseau rotation in my memory, but the pressure will be on.
2. Moorhead (15-8-2/#15)
-The Spuds have lost to Bemidji twice, but taking Hill-Murray to overtime in their finale is a good sign, and with their defense and goaltender, they’re a serious threat to do some damage in the playoffs.
3. Roseau
-They’ve hung in there fairly well against the top two, but a repeat looks to be a long shot for the Rams.
4. Buffalo
-Like Roseau, they have some chance here and will be an unknown for Bemidji, but it’s a reach to expect a lot here.
5. Brainerd
6. River Lakes
7. St. Cloud Tech
8. Monticello (Def. Becker-Big Lake 4-2)
9. Becker-Big Lake (Eliminated)

We’ll have a quick reset next week with an eye toward State seeding, but other than that, my work here is done. Thanks for following another season of the rankings, and let’s enjoy some playoff hockey.

Clarkkent
Posts: 64
Joined: Sun Dec 15, 2013 11:42 am

Post by Clarkkent » Sun Feb 15, 2015 3:30 pm

So Tonka looses to Moorhead, STA (x2) one game was 9-3, Wayzata, PL and Hopkins. These are all teams that HF beat this year. Plus HF beat them head to head. Since January 22 they are 1-6-1. They also lost to 7th seed AC. So naturally Tonka gets a 2 seed and HF a 5 seed.

Mnhockeys
Posts: 455
Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2011 12:03 pm

Post by Mnhockeys » Sun Feb 15, 2015 3:59 pm

Clarkkent wrote:So Tonka looses to Moorhead, STA (x2) one game was 9-3, Wayzata, PL and Hopkins. These are all teams that HF beat this year. Plus HF beat them head to head. Since January 22 they are 1-6-1. They also lost to 7th seed AC. So naturally Tonka gets a 2 seed and HF a 5 seed.
With a number like that, why should tonka get a "very generous" seed?

mnhockeynut77
Posts: 11
Joined: Sun Feb 15, 2015 4:38 pm

Post by mnhockeynut77 » Sun Feb 15, 2015 4:43 pm

Clarkkent wrote:So Tonka looses to Moorhead, STA (x2) one game was 9-3, Wayzata, PL and Hopkins. These are all teams that HF beat this year. Plus HF beat them head to head. Since January 22 they are 1-6-1. They also lost to 7th seed AC. So naturally Tonka gets a 2 seed and HF a 5 seed.
Tonka goes 2-1 against EP, 1-1 against Wayzata, 1-0 against BSM, 0-1 against HF and Armstrong, 1-1 against Hopkins. Strong enough for a 2 seed? Probably not but BSM and Wayzata don't have much argument to say they're higher. HF got hosed.

Regardless, everyone will have a tough day on Saturday...

WestMetro
Posts: 2906
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 4:08 pm

Post by WestMetro » Sun Feb 15, 2015 5:21 pm

The Section 6 teams have got me so befuddled Id accept almost anything at this point. So Im just posting some thoughts for feedback.

As I stare at EP's sheer W/L record , when was last time a 9 loss team ranked 3rd? Also, fact they had two somewhat close calls with Hopkins in the last month and really didnt even give Edina a decent scare in recent games. I cant help but wonder if the Eagles are a little high

If all the rankers view them that high and if they do win Section 6, then that would likely mean Bemidji, Blaine , and Elk would all be unseeded at state , even though all much much better records that the Eagles. When was the last time that happened?

If Eagles lose Section 6, then the section 6 winner would likely be unseeded at state, along with Bemidji and Blaine, and (I hope) the Elks would probably move up to 5th seed.

To offer an alternative view, one might argue that despite many impressive wins in an unexpectedly great season, the Eagles overall record should place them down below Elk, or Blaine or even below WBL for that matter, in the latter case Id move HF to 10th.

Having said that , Im guessing that Mitches final statistical model and LPH ranking will be closer to what Karl has put forth. But, things are quite bizarre this year.

GOALIEPOPS
Posts: 28
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2014 9:24 am

Post by GOALIEPOPS » Sun Feb 15, 2015 8:37 pm

Clarkkent wrote:So Tonka looses to Moorhead, STA (x2) one game was 9-3, Wayzata, PL and Hopkins. These are all teams that HF beat this year. Plus HF beat them head to head. Since January 22 they are 1-6-1. They also lost to 7th seed AC. So naturally Tonka gets a 2 seed and HF a 5 seed.
I missed that game where Holy Family beat Moorhead??

PSBMedia
Posts: 8
Joined: Wed Dec 10, 2014 5:29 pm

Post by PSBMedia » Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:26 pm

WestMetro wrote:The Section 6 teams have got me so befuddled Id accept almost anything at this point. So Im just posting some thoughts for feedback.

As I stare at EP's sheer W/L record , when was last time a 9 loss team ranked 3rd? Also, fact they had two somewhat close calls with Hopkins in the last month and really didnt even give Edina a decent scare in recent games. I cant help but wonder if the Eagles are a little high

If all the rankers view them that high and if they do win Section 6, then that would likely mean Bemidji, Blaine , and Elk would all be unseeded at state , even though all much much better records that the Eagles. When was the last time that happened?

If Eagles lose Section 6, then the section 6 winner would likely be unseeded at state, along with Bemidji and Blaine, and (I hope) the Elks would probably move up to 5th seed.

To offer an alternative view, one might argue that despite many impressive wins in an unexpectedly great season, the Eagles overall record should place them down below Elk, or Blaine or even below WBL for that matter, in the latter case Id move HF to 10th.

Having said that , Im guessing that Mitches final statistical model and LPH ranking will be closer to what Karl has put forth. But, things are quite bizarre this year.
The 9 losses are high for a top 5 team, but EP did play a very difficult schedule. They're an interesting team when seeding when you consider they beat Elk River with relative ease but also got blown out by Blaine. Even when they lost back to back games to Wayzata and Minnetonka they outshot both teams by 2:1 margins. Outside of the 2 big scorers, their 2nd and 3rd lines can create pressure and chances...but capping off those chances with goals has been an issue at times.

LSQRANK
Posts: 211
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm

LSQRANK computerized predictions

Post by LSQRANK » Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:26 am

Below are some more stats to mull over to help your prediction process. I used the latest run of the boys combo data, and used the rankings to predict the section outcomes and potential state tournament seeding and match-ups. For the most part, the computerized rankings match closely with the coaches section seedings. There are a couple flip-flops within the lower seed order in a couple of sections, but the differences will not affect the predicted eventual winning of the section either way.

The close exceptions are:

section 4AA ( White Bear Lake vs. Hill Murray );
Hill has home ice advantage at Aldrich Arena for the section finals

section 6AA ( Eden Prairie vs Wayzata );
Too close to call

section 6A ( Alexandria vs StCloudCathedral )
LSQRANK has Alexandria tied with StCloudApollo in the rankings, but ALEX will have home ice advantage over SCA and meet before the section finals.

Code: Select all

2015 MSHSL Tournament: LSQRANK Predictions 

Advance from Section Play-offs
---------------------------------------------------------------
Section | Seed | Class 2AA    LSQ  | Seed | Class 1A   LSQ    | 
        |  2A  |                   |  1A  |                   |  
---------------------------------------------------------------
1       |  1   | LakevilleN     1  |   -  | NewPrague      74 |
2       |  2   | Edina          2  |   4  | Breck          27 |
3       |  4   | SaintThomas    6  |   -  | Luverne       101 |
4       |  5   | WhiteBearLake  8  |   3  | Mahtomedi      24 |
5       |  -   | Blaine        16  |   -  | SpringLakePark 93 |
6       |  3   | EdenPrairie    3  |   5  | Alexandria     49 |
7       |  -   | ElkRiver      23  |   1  | Hermantown      7 |
8       |  -   | Bemidji       13  |   2  | EastGrandForks 10 |
---------------------------------------------------------------

Quarter Finals
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seed |  Class 2A                        |    Class 1A                      |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------          
1    |  LakevilleN  over  BL/ER/BJ      |  Hermantown     over  NP/SLP/LU  |
2    |  Edina       over  BL/ER/BJ      |  EastGrandForks over  NP/SLP/LU  |
3    |  EdenPrairie over  BL/ER/BJ      |  Mahtomedi      over  NP/SLP/LU  |
4    |  SaintThomas over  WhiteBearLake |  Breck          over  Alexandria |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Semi Finals
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seed |  Class 2A                        |    Class 1A                      |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------          
1    |  LakevilleN  over  SaintThomas   |  Hermantown     over  Breck      |
2    |  Edina       over  EdenPrairie   |  EastGrandForks over  Mahtomedi  |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------


Finals
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seed |  Class 2A                        |    Class 1A                        |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------          
1st  |  LakevilleN  over  Edina         |  Hermantown   over  EastGrandForks |
3rd  |  SaintThomas over  EdenPrairie   |  Breck        over  Mahtomedi      |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------


                                                       ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
MN Class AA Section 1                                  LSQRank Predictions  THU FEB-26: LakevilleN over Farmington                                       
---------------------------------                      ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Seed           Team  LSQRANK  GD    Coaches Seedings   THU FEB-19                     SAT FEB-21                                               
---------------------------------                     -----------------------------------------------------------------------
 1       LakevilleN   1       0.0   1 LakevilleN       LakevilleN over DodgeCounty    LakevilleN over RochesterCENT
 2       Farmington  19       2.2   2 LakevilleS       Farmington over RochesterJM    Farmington over LakevilleN
 3       LakevilleS  30       2.7   3 Farmington       LakevilleS over Owatona
 4    RochesterCENT  91       4.4   4 RochesterMayo
 5    RochesterMayo 108       4.6   5 RochesterCENT    RochesterCENT over RochesterMayo
 6      RochesterJM 116       4.7   6 RochesterJM
 7         Owatonna 130       4.8   7 Owatonna
 8      DodgeCounty 252       7.0   8 DodgeCounty
                                                       ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
MN Class AA Section 2                                  LSQRank Predictions WED FEB-26:  Edina over Burnsville                                                    
---------------------------------                      ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Seed           Team  LSQRANK  GD    Coaches Seedings   THU FEB-19                  SAT FEB-21                                                                      
---------------------------------                     -----------------------------------------------------------------------
 1            Edina   2       0.2   1 Edina                                        Edina over BloomJeff
 2       Burnsville  20       2.2   2 PriorLake        PriorLake  over Shakopee  
 3        PriorLake  22       2.3   3 Burnsville       Burnsville over Chanhassa   Burnsville over PriorLake
 4        BloomJeff  42       3.2   4 BloomJeff        BloomJeff  over HolyAngels
 5       HolyAngels  47       3.4   5 HolyAngels
 6       Chanhassan  71       4.0   6 Chanhassan
 7         Shakopee 211       6.0   7 Shakopee
                                                       ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
MN Class AA Section 3                                  LSQRank Predictions THU FEB-26: SaintThomas over CDH                                                    
---------------------------------                      ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Seed           Team  LSQRANK  GD    Coaches Seedings   TUE FEB-17  THU FEB-19                 SAT FEB-21                                                  
---------------------------------                     -----------------------------------------------------------------------
 1      SaintThomas   6       1.6   1 SaintThomas                  SaintThomas over Hastings  SaintThomas over Rosemont
 2              CDH  17       2.2   2 CDH                          CDH         over Woodbury  CDH         over Eastview
 3         Rosemont  28       2.5   3 Eastview                     Eastview    over Eagan
 4         Eastview  34       2.8   4 Rosemont                     Rosemont    over EastRidge
 5        EastRidge  43       3.2   5 EastRidge                                              
 6            Eagan  53       3.6   6 Eagan
 7         Woodbury  62       3.7   7 Woodbury         Woodbury over ParkCG
 8         Hastings  67       3.8   8 Hastings         Hastings over AppleValley
 9      AppleValley 146       5.1   9 AppleValley
10           ParkCG 171       5.5  10 ParkCG
                                                       ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
MN Class AA Section 4                                  LSQRank Predictions  FRI FEB-27:  WhiteBearLake over HillMurray                                                   
---------------------------------                      ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Seed           Team  LSQRANK  GD    Coaches Seedings   SAT FEB-21                      TUE FEB-24                                                
---------------------------------                     -----------------------------------------------------------------------
 1    WhiteBearLake   8       1.6   1 HillMurray       HillMurray    over NorthStPaul  HillMurray    over Roseville
 2       HillMurray   9       1.7   2 WhiteBearLake    WhiteBearLake over Irondale     WhiteBearLake over Stillwater
 3       Stillwater  21       2.2   3 Stillwater       Stillwater    over Tartan
 4        Roseville  36       2.9   4 Roseville        Roseville     over MoundsView
 5       MoundsView  45       3.4   5 MoundsView
 6           Tartan  64       3.7   6 Tartan
 7         Irondale 195       5.7   7 Irondale
 8      NorthStPaul 203       5.8   8 NorthStPaul
                                                       ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
MN Class AA Section 5                                  LSQRank Predictions THU FEB-26: Blaine over Centennial                                                    
---------------------------------                      ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Seed           Team  LSQRANK  GD    Coaches Seedings   THU FEB-19                    SAT FEB-21                                                   
---------------------------------                     -----------------------------------------------------------------------
 1           Blaine  16       2.1   1 Blaine           Blaine     over CoonRapids    Blaine over MapleGrove
 2       Centennial  35       2.9   2 Anoka            Anoka      over Rogers
 3            Anoka  37       3.0   3 Centennial       Centennial over ChamplinPark  Centennial over Anoka
 4       MapleGrove  40       3.1   4 MapleGrove       MapleGrove over Osseo
 5            Osseo  75       4.1   5 Osseo
 6     ChamplinPark  99       4.5   6 ChamplinPark
 7           Rogers 128       4.8   7 Rodgers
 8       CoonRapids 169       5.4   8 CoonRapids
                                                       ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
MN Class AA Section 6                                  LSQRank Predictions WED FEB-25 EdenPrairie over Wayzata                                                    
---------------------------------                      ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Seed           Team  LSQRANK  GD    Coaches Seedings   THU FEB-19                  SAT FEB-21                                                       
---------------------------------                     -----------------------------------------------------------------------
 1      EdenPrairie   3       1.2   1 EdenPrairie                                  EdenPrairie over BSM
 2          Wayzata   4       1.5   2 Minnetonka
 3              BSM  12       1.8   3 Wayzata          Wayzata    over Hopkins     Wayzata over Minnetonka
 4       HolyFamily  14       2.0   4 BSM              BSM        over HolyFamily 
 5       Minnetonka  25       2.4   5 HolyFamily       Minnetonka over ArmstrongCooper
 6          Hopkins  41       3.1   6 Hopkins
 7  ArmstrongCooper 117       4.7   7 ArmstrongCooper
                                                       -------------------------------------------------------------------
MN Class AA Section 7                                  LSQRank Predictions   THU FEB-26:    ElkRiver over DuluthEast
---------------------------------                      -------------------------------------------------------------------
Seed           Team  LSQRANK  GD    Coaches Seedings   SAT FEB-14  TUE FEB-17                     SAT FEB-21    
---------------------------------                      ---------------------------------------------------------------------  
 1         ElkRiver  23       2.3   1 ElkRiver                     ElkRiver    over StFrancis     ElkRiver over Cloquet
 2       DuluthEast  26       2.4   2 GrandRapids                  GrandRapids over ForestLake
 3      GrandRapids  29       2.6   3 DuluthEast                   DuluthEast  over Andover       DuluthEast over GrandRapids
 4          Cloquet  32       2.8   4 StMichael
 5        StMichael  44       3.3   5 Cloquet                      Cloquet over StMichael
 6          Andover  60       3.7   6 Andover
 7       ForestLake  66       3.8   7 ForestLake
 8        StFrancis 148       5.2   8 StFrancis        StFrancis over Cambridge
 9        Cambridge 218       6.1   9 Cambridge
                                                       -------------------------------------------------------------------------
MN Class AA Section 8                                  LSQRank Predictions    WED FEB-25:  Bemidji over Moorhead
---------------------------------                      -------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seed           Team  LSQRANK  GD    Coaches Seedings   SAT FEB-14   TUE FEB-17                    SAT FEB-21
---------------------------------                      -------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1          Bemidji  13       1.9   1 Bemidji                       Bemidji  over MAML            Bemidji  over Buffalo
 2         Moorhead  15       2.1   2 Moorhead                      Moorhead over StCloudTech     Moorhead over Roseau
 3           Roseau  48       3.5   3 Roseau                        Roseau   over RiverLakes
 4          Buffalo  86       4.3   4 Buffalo                       Buffalo  over Brainerd 
 5         Brainerd 127       4.8   5 Brainerd
 6      StCloudTech 151       5.2   6 RiverLakes
 7       RiverLakes 163       5.3   7 StCloudTech
 8             MAML 174       5.5   8 MAML             MAML over BigLake
 9          BigLake 275       7.9   9 BigLake



                                                      -----------------------------------------------------------------------
MN Class A Section 1                                  LSQRank Predictions  WED FEB-25  NewPrague over MankatoWest
---------------------------------                     -----------------------------------------------------------------------
Seed          Team  LSQRANK  GD     Coaches Seedings  TUE FEB-17                 THU FEB-19                      SAT FEB-21
---------------------------------                     -----------------------------------------------------------------------
 1        NewPrague  74       4.1   1 NewPrague                                  NewPrague   over RochesterLord  NewPrague   over StPeter
 2    RochesterLord  90       4.4   2 MankatoWest                                MankatoWest over AlbertLea      MankatoWest over Northfield
 3      MankatoWest 104       4.5   3 Northfield                                 Northfield  over RedWing
 4       Northfield 123       4.7   4 Faribault       Faribault     over Austin
 5        AlbertLea 144       5.1   5 StPeter         StPeter       over Winona  StPeter     over Faribault
T6        Faribault 147       5.2   6 RedWing         RedWing       over Waseca
T6          StPeter 153       5.2   7 AlbertLea       AlbertLea     over LaCresant
T8          RedWing 166       5.4   8 RochesterLord   RochesterLord over MankatoEast
T8      MankatoEast 167       5.4   9 MankatoEast
T10          Waseca 188       5.7  10 LaCresant
T10          Austin 194       5.7  11 Waseca
12        LaCresant 202       5.8  12 Winona
13           Winona 232       6.6  13 Austin
                                                     -----------------------------------------------------------------------
MN Class A Section 2                                 LSQRank Predictions THU FEB 26: Breck over Delano
---------------------------------                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Seed          Team  LSQRANK  GD     Coaches Seedings TUE FEB-17 WED FEB-18 THU FEB-19 FRI FEB-20                  TUE FEB-24
---------------------------------                    -----------------------------------------------------------------------
 1            Breck  27       2.4   1 Breck                                           Breck  over Waconia         Breck  over Blake
 2           Delano  31       2.7   2 Delano                                          Delano over MoundWestonka   Delano over Orono
 3            Orono  56       3.6   3 Orono                                Orono over MplsNovas
 4            Blake  96       4.4   4 BloomKENN
 5        BloomKENN  98       4.5   5 Blake                                Blake over BloomKENN
 6        MplsNovas 150       5.2   6 MplsNovas      MplsNovas over Richfield
T7    MoundWestonka 177       5.5   7 StLouisPark
T7      StLouisPark 180       5.5   8 Chaska
 9          Waconia 185       5.6   9 Waconia                   Waconia       over Chaska
10           Chaska 217       6.1  10 MoundWestonka             MoundWestonka over StLouisPark
11        Richfield 287       8.6  11 Richfield
                                                     ------------------------------------------------------------
MN Class A Section 3                                 LSQRank Predictions  WEDS FEB-25:  Luverne over Hutchinson
---------------------------------                    ------------------------------------------------------------
Seed          Team  LSQRANK  GD     Coaches Seedings TUE FEB-17  THU FEB-19                  SAT FEB-21
---------------------------------                    ------------------------------------------------------------
 1          Luverne 101       4.5   1 Luverne                    Luverne    over RedwoodVal  Luverne    over Marshall/LDC
 2       Hutchinson 139       5.1   2 Hutchinson                 Hutchinson over Morris      Hutchinson over NewUlm
 3              LDC 187       5.6   3 NewUlm                     NewUlm     over Willmar
T4         Marshall 191       5.7   4 Marshall                   Marshall   over LDC  (zero +/- margin)
T4           NewUlm 196       5.7   5 LDC
 6          Willmar 212       6.0   6 Willmar        Willmar    over Worthington
 7       RedwoodVal 230       6.6   7 Morris         Morris     over Fairmont
 8           Windom 233       6.7   8 RedwoodVal     RedwoodVal over Windom
 9           Morris 244       6.9   9 Windom
10         Fairmont 268       7.6  10 Fairmont
11      Worthington 280       8.1  11 Worthington
                                                     -----------------------------------------------------------------------
MN Class A Section 4                                  LSQRank Predictions FRI FEB-27:  Mahtomedi over SPA
---------------------------------                    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seed          Team  LSQRANK  GD     Coaches Seedings WED FEB-18  THU FEB-19  FRI FEB-20             WED FEB-25 
---------------------------------                    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1        Mahtomedi  24       2.4   1 Mahtomedi                              Mahtomedi over Sibley  Mahtomedi over TotinoGrace
 2              SPA  57       3.6   2 SPA                                    SPA       over Simley  SPA       over StPaulJohnson
 3      TotinoGrace  79       4.2   3 StPaulJohnson              StPaulJohnson over MHHAunited
 4      SouthStPaul 109       4.6   4 SouthStPaul
 5    StPaulJohnson 125       4.7   5 TotinoGrace                TotinoGrace over SouthStPaul
 6       MHHAunited 133       5.0   6 MHHAunited
 7           Simley 168       5.4   7 Simley         Simley over StPaulHiLandPk
 8           Sibley 210       6.0   8 Sibley         Sibley over StPaulComoPk
 9     StPaulComoPk 228       6.5   9 StPaulComoPk
10   StPaulHiLandPk 283       8.3  10 StPaulHiLandPk
                                                      -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MN Class A Section 5                                  LSQRank Predictions  THU FEB-26: SpringLakePark over ChisagoLakes/Princeton
---------------------------------                     -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seed          Team  LSQRANK  GD     Coaches Seedings  TUE FEB-17   THU FEB-19                       SAT FEB-21
---------------------------------                     -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1   SpringLakePark  93       4.4   1 SpringLakePark              SpringLakePark over PineCity     SpringLakePark over Providence
T2        Princeton 205       5.9   2 ChisagoLakes                ChisagoLakes   over Proctor      ChisagoLakes   over Princeton
T2     ChisagoLakes 206       5.9   3 Princeton                   Princeton      over LegacyChrist
 4          Proctor 213       6.0   4 Mora                        Providence     over Mora
 5       Providence 231       6.6   5 Providence
 6     LegacyChrist 241       6.8   6 LegacyChrist
 7             Mora 245       6.9   7 Proctor        Proctor  over NorthBranch
 8         PineCity 258       7.1   8 PineCity       PineCity over MooseLake
 9        MooseLake 273       7.9   9 MooseLake
10      NorthBranch 278       8.0  10 NorthBranch
                                                     -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MN Class A Section 6                                 LSQRank Predictions  THU FEB-26: Alexandria over StCloudCath
---------------------------------                    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seed          Team  LSQRANK  GD     Coaches Seedings SAT FEB-14   TUE FEB-17                        SAT FEB-21
---------------------------------                    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
T1       Alexandria  49       3.5   1 Alexandria                  Alexandria    over NorthernLakes  Alexandria  over StCloudApollo
T1    StCloudApollo  51       3.5   2 StCloudCath                 StCloudCath   over LittleFalls    StCloudCath over FergusFalls
 3      StCloudCath  69       3.9   3 FergusFalls                 FergusFalls   over SaukRapids
 4          Sartell 115       4.6   4 StCloudApollo               StCloudApollo over Sartell
 5      FergusFalls 119       4.7   5 Sartell
 6       SaukRapids 136       5.0   6 SaukRapids     SaukRapids    over Breckenridge
 7      LittleFalls 179       5.5   7 LittleFalls    LittleFalls   over PrairieCtr
 8    NorthernLakes 264       7.4   8 NorthernLakes  NorthernLakes over Wadena
 9           Wadena 276       7.9   9 Wadena
10       PrairieCtr 277       8.0  10 PrairieCtr
11     Breckenridge 281       8.2  11 Breckenridge
                                                      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MN Class A Section 7                                  LSQRank Predictions  WED FEB-25: Hermantown over DuluthMarshall
---------------------------------                     --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seed          Team  LSQRANK  GD     Coaches Seedings  TUE FEB-17  THU FEB-19                      SAT FEB-21
---------------------------------                     ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1       Hermantown   7       1.6   1 Hermantown                  Hermantown     over Virginia    Hermantown     over Hibbing
 2   DuluthMarshall  33       2.8   2 DuluthMarshall              DuluthMarshall over NorthShore  DuluthMarshall over DuluthDenfeld
 3    DuluthDenfeld  46       3.4   3 DuluthDenfeld               DuluthDenfeld  over Eveleth
 4          Hibbing  65       3.8   4 Hibbing                     Hibbing        over Greenway
T5         Greenway 173       5.5   5 Greenway
T5         Virginia 176       5.5   6 Eveleth
T7       NorthShore 190       5.7   7 NorthShore      NorthShore over Ely
T7           IFALLS 192       5.7   8 Virginia        Virginia   over IFALLS
 9          Eveleth 201       5.8   9 IFALLS
10              Ely 285       8.4  10 Ely
                                                      ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MN Class A Section 8                                  LSQRank Predictions  THU FEB-26:  EastGrandForks over ThiefRiverFalls
---------------------------------                     ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seed          Team  LSQRANK  GD     Coaches Seedings  TUE FEB-17   THU FEB-19                       SAT FEB-21
---------------------------------                     ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1   EastGrandForks  10       1.7   1 EastGrandForks               EastGrandForks  over ParkRapids  EastGrandForks  over DetroitLakes
 2  ThiefRiverFalls  55       3.6   2 ThiefRiverFalls              ThiefRiverFalls over LakeWoods   ThiefRiverFalls over Warroad
T3          Warroad  80       4.2   3 Warroad                      Warroad         over Crookston
T3        Crookston  82       4.2   4 DetroitLakes                 DetroitLakes    over Kittson
 5     DetroitLakes 120       4.7   5 Kittson
 6          Kittson 135       5.0   6 Crookston
 7       ParkRapids 215       6.1   7 LakeWoods       LakeWoods  over Bagley
 8        LakeWoods 222       6.3   8 ParkRapids      ParkRapids over RedLakeFalls
 9     RedLakeFalls 247       6.9   9 RedLakeFalls
10           Bagley 282       8.2  10 Bagley


hockeygirl2
Posts: 111
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Post by hockeygirl2 » Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:14 am

Nice job Karl. Section 6AA looks like it is the one with the most uncertainty to who will come out. Eagles have some scoring but their defence is very suspect. Minnetonka is young and erratic, but has some talent. Wayzata, is well, Wayzata. BSM seems to be a different team each night. HF is the least of the 5, but still has a chance. Should be a great section.

WestMetro
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Post by WestMetro » Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:08 am

Frankly, I look at the closeness of Eden Prairie and Wayzata in the various statistical methodologies as one of the reasons I am questioning the reasoning of Eden Prairie being ranked so high at #3? Why EP but not Wayzata?

And its been acknowledged that Wayzata had the toughest or almost toughest schedule in AA, probably even tougher than EP. So why EP ranked so high but not Wayzata? Seems somewhat inconsistent.

Seemingly such heavy losses should be a factor in top 10 rankings in and of itself. In other words, the W column in large part is what its all about.
Wasnt that the case in assessing Wayzata's final position?

Is EP that much better than Wayzata? After all, they split their 2 contests by close margins, and Wayzata tied Edina and lost to LVN by one goal

Yes, EP beat Elk head to head, but got blownout by Blaine, so those two were somewhat of a wash in final ranking consideration in that they add to the inconsistency issue. Or if you do keep those two games in final consideration, shouldnt Blaine have been higher than EP?

Smith has done a great job getting this team this far and perhaps that is good for higher positioning in and of itself , but questions remain in terms of final ranking at #3 just below Edina:

1) EP first line offense has been shown to be very ineffective against top tier teams

2) Defense and goaltending are more inconsistent than some other top 10 teams, how /why did Hopkins score so much each game?

3) With two recent shutouts by Edina, one cant say theyve shown a consistent final month surge. I might say differently if those games had been a one or two goal margin.

Anyway, it doesnt really matter at this point. Karls opinion is certainly as expert and well founded as anyones.

Im just offering a little bit of a contrasting view. Section 6 teams have been a mystery for the last 2 months. You may as well have flipped coins for the seeding, if you werent going to use pure statistisics. I.E. how in the world did Tonka get seeded #2.

On to the playoffs....my first stop will be SLP arena Thursday night.

karl(east)
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Post by karl(east) » Mon Feb 16, 2015 2:02 pm

WestMetro raises some very fair points about EP. I guess I'd explain it like this: at this point in the season, the rankings become less of a mechanical X-beat-Y system and more about feel than anything. I've also seen 9 of the top 12 in the past 3 weeks, and while I might have caught some of them on good/bad nights, I think I have a decent feel for the way they're trending. (The 3 I haven't seen are LVN, Hill, and Bemidji, and I saw plenty of LVN and Hill earlier in the year.)

For that, we'll start with STA, who had been #3 for most of the season. They have the great record, but their body of work down the stretch--splits with Hill and BSM, loss to Mahtomedi, and that final loss to HF--doesn't inspire much more confidence than what confidence than what other teams in this group has been doing. They're the most talented team outside the top two, but upon viewing them this season, I've always gotten the impression that the whole doesn't quite equal the sum of the parts. Maybe they'll fix that in the playoffs, but...we'll see.

I've been saying for a while now that I think a tight-checking Hill team is the best-built to take down one of the top two. That said, it's not hard to see their faults, and the defensive focus, which would be a strength against top teams, might be a liability in an emotionally charged section final against White Bear. I also don't think there's any way to justify ranking them ahead of STA at the moment.

Blaine is explosive and has some big wins, and on paper might be the hottest team outside the top two. That said, they also looked very wobbly in back when I saw them; giving up 4-6 goals against all the good teams they play is not a championship formula. Elk River has a great record, but I was not especially impressed by their effort against East. Also, the NWSC hasn't won a playoff game of any magnitude against someone outside the conference since 2009. Until that happens, I'm probably going to be a skeptic.

So I'm left with Eden Prairie as #3. Their only losses in their last 8 are to Edina, and 9 losses on their schedule isn't much different from 5 against an easier one. (3 of those losses alone are to Edina.) They're far from perfect, and they have their own little dilemma in whether to play Mittelstadt and Graham on the same line or not. (When they're separate, as they have been recently, they're deeper and can better match up against Edina that way, but lack the scoring punch; when they load up, they score, but the depth suffers.) All that said, I have fewer questions about them right now than anyone else in that tier.

As for the comparison to Wayzata, the computers have them higher, and justifiably so. However, the computers can't see the extent of their struggles to pull things together this season. I could see them marching into the section final, finally being confident, and winning the thing, or I could see them losing to Hopkins on Thursday. But even if they do win it, they had a .500 regular season, and they probably can't do better than a 5-seed or so unless there are lots of upsets. EP, on the other hand, would have a pretty convincing case that as the best team in the toughest section, they deserve a top-3 seed.

hshockeyfan8
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Post by hshockeyfan8 » Mon Feb 16, 2015 2:04 pm

WestMetro wrote:The Section 6 teams have got me so befuddled Id accept almost anything at this point. So Im just posting some thoughts for feedback.

As I stare at EP's sheer W/L record , when was last time a 9 loss team ranked 3rd? Also, fact they had two somewhat close calls with Hopkins in the last month and really didnt even give Edina a decent scare in recent games. I cant help but wonder if the Eagles are a little high

If all the rankers view them that high and if they do win Section 6, then that would likely mean Bemidji, Blaine , and Elk would all be unseeded at state , even though all much much better records that the Eagles. When was the last time that happened?

If Eagles lose Section 6, then the section 6 winner would likely be unseeded at state, along with Bemidji and Blaine, and (I hope) the Elks would probably move up to 5th seed.

To offer an alternative view, one might argue that despite many impressive wins in an unexpectedly great season, the Eagles overall record should place them down below Elk, or Blaine or even below WBL for that matter, in the latter case Id move HF to 10th.

Having said that , Im guessing that Mitches final statistical model and LPH ranking will be closer to what Karl has put forth. But, things are quite bizarre this year.
You're going to argue that a team that makes it out of a section with 5 top 15 teams shouldn't be seeded? A team that has to beat 2 top 15 teams to make it through sections deserves a seed. Perhaps the reason Bemidji/Elk/Blaine have much better records is because of easier, non lake conference schedules. Only one that has an argument to be seeded above EP would be Blaine because of the head to head result.

nahc
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Post by nahc » Mon Feb 16, 2015 2:19 pm

Karl:

As usual a great job!! GO HOUNDS!!!!

Watch out for the Jaugernaut!!

WestMetro
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Post by WestMetro » Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:59 pm

HSHF8

Thats exactly what Im saying if EP goes down in the Sections,

Things could obviously change peoples opinions depending on what happens from here on out.

But being a reasonably neutral West Metro observer and also having seen most of the top teams more than once in the last three months, Id hate to see ANY inconsistent up and down heavy loss west metro team get a possibly undeserving 5th seed at state, thereby forcing a season long consistent and high win Elk, Blaine or Bemidji team to face LV or Edina in the first round.

As to Elk vs Blaine, you make a good point based on the one head to head. But Elk has got two of the top 25 scorers in the state.

(Karl, good counterpoints as usual. Time will tell. Your Jacob Olsen and company comment is a good one, and would apply to HM qtrs as well, for example if they drew either EP or STA . Coach Lechner would also get his usual one goal automatic edge going into the qtrs. If things get that far of course)

OU812
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Post by OU812 » Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:24 pm

Clarkkent wrote:So Tonka looses to Moorhead, STA (x2) one game was 9-3, Wayzata, PL and Hopkins. These are all teams that HF beat this year. Plus HF beat them head to head. Since January 22 they are 1-6-1. They also lost to 7th seed AC. So naturally Tonka gets a 2 seed and HF a 5 seed.


I totally agree; this year's players on HF got a raw deal. How do you explain a #2 seed for Minnetonka and a #5 seed for the Fire?

Memo to Lake Conference 6AA coaches - you have a ton of talent in your proud conference; don't tarnish the section playoffs with seedings a ten year old could see were off. And don't punish players on any of this year's 6AA teams for success in past years by your programs - seedings should be based on this season's games only.

Rankings? Let's Play Hockey, Myhockeyrankings.com, USHSHO, all of them had Holy Family ranked higher than Minnetonka, period - and you put the Fire three spots back of the Skippers?!?! As for the "what have you done for me lately?" theory of seeding, Holy Family was 11-0 since Jan 10th, beating Wayzata, Hopkins, St Thomas, Duluth Marshall, Delano, etc etc. Tonka finished 1-6-1. Sorry, just doesn't look right.

Good luck to all teams anyway.

elliott70
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Post by elliott70 » Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:47 pm

vs. Delano L 5-3 F
at Wayzata W 5-4 F/OT
at Mound Westonka W 7-0 F
at Waconia W 9-2 F
at Orono W 6-2 F
vs. Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato W 12-1 F
at Delano W 6-2 F
at New Prague W 8-1 F
vs. Hopkins W 4-3 F
vs. Duluth Marshall W 4-1 F
at Hutchinson W 9-1 F
vs. St. Thomas Academy W 3-1 F

From Jan 1
not all stellar opposition but good wins.
HF got took.

OTB987
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Post by OTB987 » Mon Feb 16, 2015 5:06 pm

OU812 wrote:
Clarkkent wrote:So Tonka looses to Moorhead, STA (x2) one game was 9-3, Wayzata, PL and Hopkins. These are all teams that HF beat this year. Plus HF beat them head to head. Since January 22 they are 1-6-1. They also lost to 7th seed AC. So naturally Tonka gets a 2 seed and HF a 5 seed.


I totally agree; this year's players on HF got a raw deal. How do you explain a #2 seed for Minnetonka and a #5 seed for the Fire?

Memo to Lake Conference 6AA coaches - you have a ton of talent in your proud conference; don't tarnish the section playoffs with seedings a ten year old could see were off. And don't punish players on any of this year's 6AA teams for success in past years by your programs - seedings should be based on this season's games only.

Rankings? Let's Play Hockey, Myhockeyrankings.com, USHSHO, all of them had Holy Family ranked higher than Minnetonka, period - and you put the Fire three spots back of the Skippers?!?! As for the "what have you done for me lately?" theory of seeding, Holy Family was 11-0 since Jan 10th, beating Wayzata, Hopkins, St Thomas, Duluth Marshall, Delano, etc etc. Tonka finished 1-6-1. Sorry, just doesn't look right.

Good luck to all teams anyway.
Maybe the problem lies with HF's coaching staff ability to argue their position for a higher seed. I agree that HF deserved better but by how much is the question. I would have seeded Sec6 as follows:

EP
Way
BSM
HF
Tonka
Hopkins
Arm

But as others have mentioned Sec6 was a mess and to say that they got it completely wrong is not fair either. I just would have emphasized how Tonka finished down the stretch and the loss to Armstrong is a tough one when dealing with the consensus #7 team in the section.

Regardless of the seed, your team will need a great performance from their goalie to get out of this section. For instance, if EP gets good, but not great goaltending the 1 seed will be meaningless.

Good luck to all the teams - you are going to need it.

Rich Clarke
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Post by Rich Clarke » Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:15 pm

I think that sometimes people used to section seven's seeding of teams based primarily on head to head section games miss the fact that other sections approach seeding differently, and in my opinion, more intelligently. To me, EP and Minnetonka were clearly the top two seeds. EP had the best Lake record in the section and was playing well, having reversed earlier losses to Minnetonka and EP. They also had a strong record overall against a tough schedule. Wayzata was merely .500 and although they played a brutal schedule, they failed to wins games a team of their caliber should have won. They lost 6-2 to Minnetonka down the stretch and Edina 8-0, and tied Hopkins. Despite earlier success, Wayzata has been in such a free fall that only the win over Benilde saved them from the fifth seed. Minnetonka, on the other hand, has been playing well, and appears far more dangerous than Wayzata right now. Again, I have no idea what the story is with Benilde, but they seem to be the only team Wayzata can beat right now and deserves a lower seeding. Hopkins tried hard but failed to beat Wayzata, and its overall record justifies a sixth seed.

That leaves Holy Family. I would have had them third, and possibly second. They lost some bad games, but so did Minnetonka. I agree that there always seems to be some bias against teams from the lesser conferences until they succeed in regions, and I think that happened here. All the same, they have a chance to prove themselves and if they can't beat Benilde, it's likely that the fifth seed was about right.

karl(east)
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Post by karl(east) » Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:47 pm

Rich Clarke wrote:I think that sometimes people used to section seven's seeding of teams based primarily on head to head section games miss the fact that other sections approach seeding differently, and in my opinion, more intelligently. To me, EP and Minnetonka were clearly the top two seeds. EP had the best Lake record in the section and was playing well, having reversed earlier losses to Minnetonka and EP. They also had a strong record overall against a tough schedule. Wayzata was merely .500 and although they played a brutal schedule, they failed to wins games a team of their caliber should have won. They lost 6-2 to Minnetonka down the stretch and Edina 8-0, and tied Hopkins. Despite earlier success, Wayzata has been in such a free fall that only the win over Benilde saved them from the fifth seed. Minnetonka, on the other hand, has been playing well, and appears far more dangerous than Wayzata right now. Again, I have no idea what the story is with Benilde, but they seem to be the only team Wayzata can beat right now and deserves a lower seeding. Hopkins tried hard but failed to beat Wayzata, and its overall record justifies a sixth seed.

That leaves Holy Family. I would have had them third, and possibly second. They lost some bad games, but so did Minnetonka. I agree that there always seems to be some bias against teams from the lesser conferences until they succeed in regions, and I think that happened here. All the same, they have a chance to prove themselves and if they can't beat Benilde, it's likely that the fifth seed was about right.
Ordinarily I'd agree, Rich, but the issue is that Tonka was not playing particularly well down the stretch. They were 1-6-1 in their last eight. The one win was over Wayzata, and I guess it's impressive that they were the one team to give Edina an actual run in Lake play, though they still lost. Other than that, their Lake record was identical to Wayzata save for their results against Hopkins (Tonka 1-1; Wayzata 1-0-1). The tie was against Duluth East, which is not an impressive tie this season. They also lost 5-2 to Prior Lake, which is not pretty.

After the results late in the week, I would have advocated for HF as #2, with Wayzata, BSM, and Minnetonka following in that order, but like you say, it's tough for non-power conference teams to get that respect.

But, these things will happen. Prove yourself on the ice, and you will earn that respect.

observer
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Post by observer » Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:55 pm

Prove yourself on the ice
They did. As stated, Tonka was 1-6-1 in their last 8.

Woulda been fun to be the ol' fly on the wall at that meeting.

OU812
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Post by OU812 » Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:18 pm

Thx guys - all good points.

I'd just add that HF (which opted up voluntarily to class AA despite about one fifth the enrollment of EP and Wayzata, btw) would love to prove it on the ice: at home on Thursday, which they earned IMHO, not on the road where BSM gets to match lines.

This is why I think it's so important to get the seedings correct based on the current season's record/performance; it is the fairest way to treat all the teams's players for that season. You can't tell this year's Fire seniors, for example, that the school has to "earn it" before they can get seeded properly next time. They have no next time.

Again, good luck to all the teams.

WestMetro
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Post by WestMetro » Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:35 pm

Not to mention the fire likely contribution to exiled ones early departure list

karl(east)
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Post by karl(east) » Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:59 pm

My comment wasn't meant to just shrug off the fact that the Fire got jilted, and I would have said the same thing about a Duluth East team that got a lower than expected seed. It sucks, but from the team's standpoint, no point in blaming the system if you lose. Use it as motivation and show the other 6AA coaches how wrong they were.

sanryam
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Post by sanryam » Tue Feb 17, 2015 12:03 am

karl(east) wrote:My comment wasn't meant to just shrug off the fact that the Fire got jilted, and I would have said the same thing about a Duluth East team that got a lower than expected seed. It sucks, but from the team's standpoint, no point in blaming the system if you lose. Use it as motivation and show the other 6AA coaches how wrong they were.
East got a higher than expected seed, Karl. Just ask the mob of STMA fans. :roll:

green4
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Post by green4 » Tue Feb 17, 2015 12:56 am

OU812 wrote:
I'd just add that HF (which opted up voluntarily to class AA despite about one fifth the enrollment of EP and Wayzata, btw)
1/5th the size, yet they do have a goaltender who just transferred from Bemidji so your point seems invalid to me.

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