Class A Rankings 1-24-2016

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Moderators: Mitch Hawker, east hockey, karl(east)

Who is the #2 team in state?

Poll ended at Sun Jan 31, 2016 2:57 am

Breck
20
71%
Hibbing
6
21%
Mahtomedi
1
4%
Someone else
1
4%
 
Total votes: 28

PuckRanger
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Post by PuckRanger » Sun Jan 24, 2016 6:19 pm

stromboli wrote:
howardst wrote:
Who wants to play Virginia right now? Hmmmmm. So 5 quality teams in this section. Not 3. All quality wins no matter the scores
But please, try to use a little bit of perspective. Did you really ask who wants to play Virginia? Citing a team with a losing record against average competition as to how strong 7A is and "quality?"
Perhaps howardst has more perspective than you might think. And this isn't just directed at stromboli because only people who follow northern class A hockey closely might realize this. Here is why he brought this up:

Virginia 5, #16A Little Falls 4 OT
#19AA Brainerd 5, Virginia 3
#4A Hibbing 3, Virginia 2 (Winning goal scored in last minute)
#9A Greenway 4, Virginia 3 OT
(LPH rankings used here)

Other than those 3 tight losses to top ranked teams, and after starting 2-6-2, Virginia has won every game since another overtime loss to Eagan on Dec. 22nd.

Also, their losses are either to quality AA teams (Cloquet, Grand Rapids, Brainerd, Eagan) or ranked class A teams (Denfeld, Greenway-twice, Hibbing) and the other was an early season 2-1 loss to Warroad - who, by the way would be ranked #16 in class A by pagestat. The only team that actually buried them was Grand Rapids... and that game was still 3-2 with a minute left in the 2nd period before the floodgates opened...

The point being their schedule is actually very good for class A. They still have games with Apollo, Cathedral, Hibbing, and Hermantown as well. To say "against average competition" is probably incorrect. They haven't lost to anyone in the "average" part of their schedule.

In fact, if you take the latest pagestat rankings for just class A teams, Virginia comes in just outside the top 20 at #22. I suspect that will improve with the overtime loss to Greenway and a 5-1 win added in on the next run.

Although they have a 7-9-2 record, they are 6 goals away from being 13-5. Don't let the record fool you... Both Hibbing and Greenway will attest to that.

stromboli
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Post by stromboli » Mon Jan 25, 2016 2:21 am

I looked at Virginia's schedule before responding. Not impressed. Saying they'd have a respectable record if they had scored another half a dozen goals... Ummm, ok?

Let's see how they do against Apollo and Hermantown.

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Post by PuckRanger » Mon Jan 25, 2016 3:12 am

stromboli wrote:I looked at Virginia's schedule before responding. Not impressed.
OK.... not sure what it may take to impress you. Literally half of their games are against top 20 teams... :?:
stromboli wrote:Saying they'd have a respectable record if they had scored another half a dozen goals... Ummm, ok?
I'm not saying that... it is a fact. They have had 6 games go into overtime and have lost twice in the last minute of regulation. If you think that losing in this manner makes them weaker and an easier to beat because their win/loss record takes a hit... well, ok then... :roll:
stromboli wrote:Let's see how they do against Apollo and Hermantown.
You do realize that I am not making a case for Virginia to be in the top 10? I am merely pointing out the short-sightedness of your statement about having some perspective. However, I would not be surprised to see these games be close as well. :wink:

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Post by stromboli » Mon Jan 25, 2016 4:58 am

PR,

I realize you're not making a case for them to be a top-ten team, and I agree with much of what you've said.

I was originally responding to Howard asking who wants to play Virginia. I'd say almost half the state would based on where they're ranked as of the last PageStat rankings at #70 (out of 151).

I get that they've lost some close games. That begs a few questions though. Do you believe they've overachieved, played to their ability, or underachieved to date? If they've overachieved, they've come up short despite that and haven't found a way to win against higher ranked teams. If they've underachieved, then they've found a way to lose games they should have won, and are ranked right where they should be until they find a way to win close games.

They've been pretty predictable based on the last PageStat rankings.

They've won and/or tied against:

#58 Little Falls (best win to date)
#82 Hutchinson
#96 I Falls (wind and a tie)
#103 Willmar
#114 Eveleth (win and a tie)
#119 Sauk Rapids
#123 Northern Lakes

That's really what I meant earlier by not being impressed. Not that they don't play any ranked teams. Their wins have come, with one exception, against teams ranked in the bottom half of the state.

Their losses are as follows:

#14 Grand Rapids
#17 Hibbing
#30 Greenway (twice)
#35 Brainerd
#50 Cloquet
#53 Eagan
#55 Warroad
#65 Denfeld


A statistical ranking of about #70 seems right on the money based on who they've beaten and who they've lost to so far.

I don't place stock in what a team's record would have been with a few more goals in a few games. That's like saying Apollo would be undefeated if only they'd scored 3 more goals. It's a fact, but it's also a fact that it didn't happen.

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Post by howardst » Mon Jan 25, 2016 5:52 am

Sad part is you still don't get the improvement this club has made. I saw them play early and even talking to their coach the exchange goalie has improved. This team has the ability to take out about every team in the state in class A except maybe herm n breck. Trust me, you don't want your hometown team to face them in the playoffs and look past them. They will end your season. Not every middle of the pack team can provide the night that this club can bring. Hibb and greenway both can attest to it even after really carrying play the games are one goal affairs and that can be a recipe for disaster. That was my only point not that they should be top ranked but the fact they are playing well at the right time if the year.

stromboli
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Post by stromboli » Mon Jan 25, 2016 6:14 am

howardst wrote:Sad part is you still don't get the improvement this club has made. I saw them play early and even talking to their coach the exchange goalie has improved. This team has the ability to take out about every team in the state in class A except maybe herm n breck. Trust me, you don't want your hometown team to face them in the playoffs and look past them. They will end your season. Not every middle of the pack team can provide the night that this club can bring. Hibb and greenway both can attest to it even after really carrying play the games are one goal affairs and that can be a recipe for disaster. That was my only point not that they should be top ranked but the fact they are playing well at the right time if the year.
I get that they're playing competitively. I'm happy that you can attest to their improvement. My point is that they haven't taken anyone out to date -- not a single one -- not that they couldn't.

Is there any chance that Virginia has closed the gap with Hibbing and Greenway while those teams peaked earlier? Have they peaked? I don't get that sense from what I've seen and heard. What I am sensing is that Hermantown has its hardest road yet to keep its string of state appearances going.

I'm convinced that whichever team comes out of 7A will be the most battle tested team headed to the X, much like it was for 6A last year. Just my opinion.

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Post by Mite-dad » Mon Jan 25, 2016 6:19 am

howardst wrote:Sad part is you still don't get the improvement this club has made. I saw them play early and even talking to their coach the exchange goalie has improved. This team has the ability to take out about every team in the state in class A except maybe herm n breck. Trust me, you don't want your hometown team to face them in the playoffs and look past them. They will end your season. Not every middle of the pack team can provide the night that this club can bring. Hibb and greenway both can attest to it even after really carrying play the games are one goal affairs and that can be a recipe for disaster. That was my only point not that they should be top ranked but the fact they are playing well at the right time if the year.
Fergus Falls is a similar scary team in 6A right now.

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Post by HShockeywatcher » Mon Jan 25, 2016 6:28 am

Virginia is a good example of how important it is to a) look at more than one game schedule and b) that the result of the game does ultimately matter.

Are they just as good as Eveleth or International Falls? Are they 1 goal worse than Hibbing, Eagan, Warroad and Greenway? Or maybe they're way worse than Denfeld and Greenway because they lost to them by 3? Heck, they're clearly better than Hibbing because they scored 2 goals on Grand Rapids, right?Or maybe it's the culmination of all of these things?

Something that is virtually always brought up in discussions of wins/losses, but seems to be absent in the thoughts of "7A supporters," is that ultimately the goal is to win. It doesn't matter if you win by a lot or a little, a win's a win. Teams do different things against different opponents, try new things against lesser opponents, etc, etc. We've all been at games where one team dominated on the ice but didn't win by a lot (or even ended up losing) or vice versa. Which is also why, over the course of a season, you can't look at just a couple results and say "look, they played this one good team close in this one game so they are definitely just as good as them or slightly worse."
This is a huge factor in ranking that so many seem to want to ignore here.


It's also worth noting for those who bring up SOS that it can be a deceiving metric. Luverne's schedule (88, 15.528) is only slightly behind Virginia's (73, 16.233). When you actually look at the schedule's, though, Luverne plays all of 4 noteworthy opponents while Virginia plays at least double that, if not more.

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Post by hawkenjonny » Mon Jan 25, 2016 6:38 am

Oh man HSHW, beware the wrath of the red army. The Luverne SOS isn't their fault you know :wink: , (which it isn't really I guess). The fact that they haven't WON any of those games is. Shocked they are still ranked this high. Hope they loosen the choke collar in time.

howardst
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Post by howardst » Mon Jan 25, 2016 6:40 am

Proving that 7A top three are all in the top 6-8 teams in the state. Herm is what they are, Hibbing only 1 loss, and greenway at 18-3. All top records in the state.

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Post by pekyman » Mon Jan 25, 2016 6:51 am

Virginia has the ultimate opportunity to prove they are for real on Tuesday. Lets see if they can knock Hermantown off of at least give them a good scare. Howardst has sure kicked up the excitement on this game!

howardst
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Post by howardst » Mon Jan 25, 2016 6:56 am

Like I said. Herm and breck are two matchups that I don't see going well for Virginia. Every other team will be a adventure. Yes Hibbing still has Virginia left on the schedule Could be very interesting

pekyman
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Post by pekyman » Mon Jan 25, 2016 7:04 am

howardst wrote:Like I said. Herm and breck are two matchups that I don't see going well for Virginia. Every other team will be a adventure. Yes Hibbing still has Virginia left on the schedule Could be very interesting
Well it's in Virginia and thats a long bus ride for a Tuesday! :)

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Post by howardst » Mon Jan 25, 2016 7:06 am

Nope. Herm is a bad match up. I would not base vir ability to be a thorn in just about any teams side other than herm n breck based on tues game. Watch the remaining games ang it could be a season changer. A Hibbing loss late in the year could be a seeding changer as well

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Post by karl(east) » Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:31 am

Just for comparison's sake, the latest PageStat:

1. Breck
2. Hermantown
3. Delano
4. Hibbing
5. Mahtomedi
6. St. Cloud Apollo
7. Thief River Falls
8. St. Paul Academy
9. Greenway
10. East Grand Forks
11. St. Cloud Cathedral
12. Blake
13. Luverne
14. Litchfield
15. Warroad
16. Sartell
17. Little Falls
18. Orono
19. Totino-Grace
20. Duluth Denfeld

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Post by elliott70 » Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:41 am

karl(east) wrote:Just for comparison's sake, the latest PageStat:

1. Breck
2. Hermantown
3. Delano
4. Hibbing
5. Mahtomedi
6. St. Cloud Apollo
7. Thief River Falls
8. St. Paul Academy
9. Greenway
10. East Grand Forks
11. St. Cloud Cathedral
12. Blake
13. Luverne
14. Litchfield
15. Warroad
16. Sartell
17. Little Falls
18. Orono
19. Totino-Grace
20. Duluth Denfeld
Apparently, Lee's HAL does the single A later in the evening after sipping (or guzzling) a nice Chianti.

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Post by stromboli » Mon Jan 25, 2016 10:07 am

karl(east) wrote:Just for comparison's sake, the latest PageStat:

1. Breck
2. Hermantown
3. Delano
4. Hibbing
5. Mahtomedi
6. St. Cloud Apollo
7. Thief River Falls
8. St. Paul Academy
9. Greenway
10. East Grand Forks
11. St. Cloud Cathedral
12. Blake
13. Luverne
14. Litchfield
15. Warroad
16. Sartell
17. Little Falls
18. Orono
19. Totino-Grace
20. Duluth Denfeld
21. New Prague
22. Virginia
23. Minneapolis
24. St. Cloud Tech
25. Bloomington Kennedy

2A teams at #1, #3, #12, #18, #21, #23, and #25.
7A teams at #2, #4, #9, #20, and #22.

The system must be flawed. 7A is the best and deepest section. That's been said repeatedly on this bored.

Pagestat just doesn't match reality.

(Herb, "That'll get 'em going." Craig, "O yeah. I'll clean up.")

howardst
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Post by howardst » Mon Jan 25, 2016 10:24 am

That's easy enough to add to. My hockey rankings.

Breck
Herm
Delano
Hibbing
Mahtomedi
Apollo
Greenway
SPA
TRF
EGF

So 2,4,7 in sec 7 of top 10
1,3 in sec 2

What is the record in games between the 2 sections? I believe sec 7 is undefeated.

stromboli
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Post by stromboli » Mon Jan 25, 2016 10:36 am

howardst wrote:That's easy enough to add to. My hockey rankings.

Breck
Herm
Delano
Hibbing
Mahtomedi
Apollo
Greenway
SPA
TRF
EGF

So 2,4,7 in sec 7 of top 10
1,3 in sec 2

What is the record in games between the 2 sections? I believe sec 7 is undefeated.
As long as that changes come state tourney time it's all good!

PageStat and MyHockey have tracked pretty closely all year. They must use very similar formulas/weightings. I like the last-ten games feature on MyHockey to see how teams are trending. :wink:

Love the back and forth on the class A teams.

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Post by howardst » Mon Jan 25, 2016 10:44 am

I really believe there are the top two and then 8-10 that could make some noise, to bad of the 8-10, 4-5 are all from two sec. Is what it is. Fun to speculate as none of this is fact. Lol

stromboli
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Post by stromboli » Mon Jan 25, 2016 10:52 am

Agreed.

I'd still put Apollo in that top tier and make it a top three vs. top two conversation. Best overall team defense and great goaltending. They're having a special year in St. Cloud.

I'd like to see Althaus be a Brimsek finalist and get recognition for the crazy numbers they're putting up defensively. Similar to what Headrick did last year at Breck.

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Post by pekyman » Mon Jan 25, 2016 11:32 am

I've been on this forum for 6 years or so and I have never seen the HSHW's rankings with more views and comments than Karl's as far as I can remember.
Even Karl put his 2 cents in which was much appreciated. No doubt Class A sections and State are going to be very interesting.

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Post by CornerBar » Mon Jan 25, 2016 11:37 am

stromboli wrote:Agreed.

I'd still put Apollo in that top tier and make it a top three vs. top two conversation. Best overall team defense and great goaltending. They're having a special year in St. Cloud.

I'd like to see Althaus be a Brimsek finalist and get recognition for the crazy numbers they're putting up defensively. Similar to what Headrick did last year at Breck.
I would definitely agree with Apollo being in the top tier conversation. They took Breck to OT, don't see how Howardst doesn't consider them to be a top tier team. They've only allowed 18 goals in 17 games, I'm pretty sure that's a record pace.

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Post by howardst » Mon Jan 25, 2016 12:27 pm

So by the same logic greenway should be listed as a top tier. 35 goals against with 120 goals for and proved their worth allowing Hermantown only 2 goals and no other class A (and hardly any AA did that- like one of only 4 teams to do it) and could have just as easily tied it as not in the last minute. By your logic there is no way you can not list them there as Apollo has not played a team any better than Hermantown and they have not scored like greenway. Then take Hibbing. 1 loss and it was to a team that is better than any Apollo has played so then the elite conversation is 5 teams? Nope. Elite is just that. Elite. In fact I might question breck being elite after losses to rosemount and st Michael. Hibbings resume is better.

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Post by howardst » Mon Jan 25, 2016 12:28 pm

Oh and green did that through 21 games

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