Bethel Park Pennsylvania 3 Wayzata Minnesota State Champs 2

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Bluewhitefan
Posts: 479
Joined: Thu Jan 13, 2011 10:43 am

Post by Bluewhitefan » Tue Mar 29, 2016 8:24 am

HSHockeyFan08 wrote:
Bluewhitefan wrote:
HSHockeyFan08 wrote:Some of these Jr. Gold posts are ridiculous. There is absolutely zero chance a Jr. Gold "A" team would come close to beating a Top 50 AA team. Zero. None. Sure - the first line of a Jr. Gold "A" team could skate with the second and third lines, but beyond that it wouldn't even be close.
You are an idiot. Top 50? There are years they'd beat the top 25. Sorry, but you absolutely do not know what you're talking about.
Not a chance. Like I said - due to the lack of depth on a Jr. Gold "A" roster they would not beat a Top 50 team. The first line would be able to compete against the AA teams second and third lines, but beyond that it wouldn't be close.
Well, you're right about one thing - It wouldn't be close. Edina or Wayzata JGA would have NO trouble with Rochester Century which, if my count is correct, is the 50th ranked AA team. Again, you don't know what you're talking about.

HSHockeyFan08
Posts: 126
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2007 10:04 am

Post by HSHockeyFan08 » Tue Mar 29, 2016 8:41 am

[quote="Bluewhitefan"][quote="HSHockeyFan08"][quote="Bluewhitefan"][quote="HSHockeyFan08"]Some of these Jr. Gold posts are ridiculous. There is absolutely zero chance a Jr. Gold "A" team would come close to beating a Top 50 AA team. Zero. None. Sure - the first line of a Jr. Gold "A" team could skate with the second and third lines, but beyond that it wouldn't even be close.[/quote]

You are an idiot. Top 50? There are years they'd beat the top 25. Sorry, but you absolutely do not know what you're talking about.[/quote]

Not a chance. Like I said - due to the lack of depth on a Jr. Gold "A" roster they would not beat a Top 50 team. The first line would be able to compete against the AA teams second and third lines, but beyond that it wouldn't be close.[/quote]

Well, you're right about one thing - It wouldn't be close. Edina or Wayzata JGA would have NO trouble with Rochester Century which, if my count is correct, is the 50th ranked AA team. Again, you don't know what you're talking about.[/quote]

Whatever makes you sleep at night.

green4
Posts: 1470
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2011 3:02 am
Location: Edina

Post by green4 » Tue Mar 29, 2016 9:30 am

Again, I dont really care who would win a game between a top JGA team and a AA school ranked around 25-30, because some of you I'm guessing have never seen a game so arguing is senseless.
Since we have been talking about Carlson and his contract he just signed I thought of that edina senior class from 2012. Practicallly all the seniors got cut and as a result the junior gold team was half full of former varsity players who just placed 4th in the state tournament. This was a rare team, but I'm sure it's not the only group that saw a large number of seniors cut with varsity and JV experience.
My point, like last is that there are good players playing in junior gold, kids that could play significant time on varsity at plenty of schools

Bluewhitefan
Posts: 479
Joined: Thu Jan 13, 2011 10:43 am

Post by Bluewhitefan » Tue Mar 29, 2016 9:37 am

HSHockeyFan08 wrote: Whatever makes you sleep at night.
Oh, I sleep fine - this discussion is really about knowledge, not emotion for me. The concept is really no different than the better Bantam A teams beating some of the middle tier Bantam AA teams. In the case of JGA, players often get cut for reasons outside of their talent level. At Edina, and other top AA programs, coaches put kids on varsity for preparation for later in the season, to play a certain role, or to prepare for next year, but they are often not "better" than the last 4-5 kids that got cut. Since it looks like you played varsity somewhere in 2008, it would probably be hard to admit that JGA kids from Edina or Tonka would beat your team. Understandable, but no reason to lose sleep.

Bluewhitefan
Posts: 479
Joined: Thu Jan 13, 2011 10:43 am

Post by Bluewhitefan » Tue Mar 29, 2016 9:42 am

green4 wrote:Again, I dont really care who would win a game between a top JGA team and a AA school ranked around 25-30, because some of you I'm guessing have never seen a game so arguing is senseless.
I've seen plenty, and I don't really care either. It's the de-facto, 100%, no chance argument that is annoying and is very clearly based in a lack of knowledge of Junior Gold or the trickle down in the top programs. BTW Green, your analysis on the Carlson year goalie group is spot on, and, frankly, comes very close to the situation that occurred this year as the best goalie was very likely at JGA.

green4
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Location: Edina

Post by green4 » Tue Mar 29, 2016 9:49 am

Bluewhitefan wrote:
green4 wrote:Again, I dont really care who would win a game between a top JGA team and a AA school ranked around 25-30, because some of you I'm guessing have never seen a game so arguing is senseless.
I've seen plenty, and I don't really care either. It's the de-facto, 100%, no chance argument that is annoying and is very clearly based in a lack of knowledge of Junior Gold or the trickle down in the top programs. BTW Green, your analysis on the Carlson year goalie group is spot on, and, frankly, comes very close to the situation that occurred this year as the best goalie was very likely at JGA.
It helps that I got to play against them all a good amount. I had a tough time scoring on Benjamin, Dalbec and Carlson. The remaining goalie helped me fool even some of the varsity players to think I was much better than I was.

HSHockeyFan08
Posts: 126
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2007 10:04 am

Post by HSHockeyFan08 » Tue Mar 29, 2016 9:56 am

[quote="Bluewhitefan"][quote="HSHockeyFan08"]
Whatever makes you sleep at night.[/quote]

Oh, I sleep fine - this discussion is really about knowledge, not emotion for me. The concept is really no different than the better Bantam A teams beating some of the middle tier Bantam AA teams. In the case of JGA, players often get cut for reasons outside of their talent level. At Edina, and other top AA programs, coaches put kids on varsity for preparation for later in the season, to play a certain role, or to prepare for next year, but they are often not "better" than the last 4-5 kids that got cut. Since it looks like you played varsity somewhere in 2008, it would probably be hard to admit that JGA kids from Edina or Tonka would beat your team. Understandable, but no reason to lose sleep.[/quote]

I understand where you are coming from in your argument, but the fact of the matter is there are only 4-5 Jr. Gold "A" players on Edina and Tonka that would be able to compete against a Top 50 AA team. The remaining players would not be able to keep up with the pace of play. I'm not trying to knock Jr. Gold "A" hockey, but the idea that they could beat a Top 50 AA team is a little absurd in my mind.

green4
Posts: 1470
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2011 3:02 am
Location: Edina

Post by green4 » Tue Mar 29, 2016 10:13 am

HSHockeyFan08 wrote:
Bluewhitefan wrote:
HSHockeyFan08 wrote: Whatever makes you sleep at night.
Oh, I sleep fine - this discussion is really about knowledge, not emotion for me. The concept is really no different than the better Bantam A teams beating some of the middle tier Bantam AA teams. In the case of JGA, players often get cut for reasons outside of their talent level. At Edina, and other top AA programs, coaches put kids on varsity for preparation for later in the season, to play a certain role, or to prepare for next year, but they are often not "better" than the last 4-5 kids that got cut. Since it looks like you played varsity somewhere in 2008, it would probably be hard to admit that JGA kids from Edina or Tonka would beat your team. Understandable, but no reason to lose sleep.
I understand where you are coming from in your argument, but the fact of the matter is there are only 4-5 Jr. Gold "A" players on Edina and Tonka that would be able to compete against a Top 50 AA team. The remaining players would not be able to keep up with the pace of play. I'm not trying to knock Jr. Gold "A" hockey, but the idea that they could beat a Top 50 AA team is a little absurd in my mind.
How many AA teams are there? 60? So in comparison of they were ranked at sections the top JGA teams would be a 7 seed?

Section 8 guy
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Post by Section 8 guy » Tue Mar 29, 2016 12:52 pm

Think about it in this context.

I watched Edinas PeeWee A team (second team) take a top 5 rated PeeWee AA team deep into the third period tied. Did Edinas A team win the game? No. Would they have been able to beat all kinds of PW AA teams in the top 25 on a given day? No doubt about it. Edinas A team won a Bantam AA tournament in Roseau with some top end Bantam AA teams in it a few years ago. Given Some of the larger programs use their JGA team more as their second team than they use their JV team.....would this conversation be that different?

O-townClown
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Location: Typical homeboy from the O-Town

Post by O-townClown » Tue Mar 29, 2016 5:57 pm

Using Wayzata & Edina as examples of a "top" Junior Gold team makes sense. Those two and maybe a few others play at that level.

What is a Top 50 Minnesota HS team? Using the My Hockey rankings, chosen because the site is favorited on my computer...feel free to use any other computer ranking like Lee's or another, here is what we see:

45 - Eastview
46 - Roseau
47 - Hopkins
48 - Woodbury
49 - John Marshall
50 - Duluth Marshall
51 - Spring Lake Park
52 - Rogers
53 - St. Louis Park
54 - Buffalo
55 - Roseville
56 - Eagan
57 - Sartell
58 - Orono
59 - Mounds View
60 - Andover
61 - Warroad
65 - Forest Lake
77 - Holy Angels (also the 50th ranked AA team)

I'm pretty sure the senior-laden Junior Gold teams from huge associations would fare just fine against lower end AA Varsity teams.
Be kind. Rewind.

lsqrank01
Posts: 36
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2014 6:00 pm

Post by lsqrank01 » Tue Mar 29, 2016 7:10 pm

BigCat ... First .. Actually in the reality of AAA Tier 1 hockey, you do find that the very top 16U AAA teams are better than a lot of 18U AAA team, because the best 16U player go onto play Jr A in the USHL/NAHL and other TII Canadian leagues (BCHL,AJHL,CCHL,LHJQ, etc.) as opposed to playing U18 AAA. So the fact that Shattuck's 16U AAA team was so highly rated in the 2014-15 season is real no surprise. Second ... this is not a statistical analysis, the rating scores were produce by a numerical least squares solution of an observation equation that treated the score of a games as thought it were an elevation difference. So if Team A beat Team B beat 3 goals, its like saying that Team A is 3 meters higher in elevation than Team B. Teams across north America play each other such that it is possible to compute a direct relationship between the expected margin of victory between teams from different leagues and regions just like an elevation network in surveying & mapping applications. So long story short, the number are sound when used to predict end of season play-off match-ups, and have beaten the human experts by 7 or 8 percentage points. (Take that to Vegas $ baby) Now, about the arguments made about the best Junior Gold teams beating a certain level of HS team, let me share an experience. Back in 2012-2013, due to the MN HS transfer rule, my kid played on the East Side Hockey "Wessy Boys" which was the last year they fielded a Jr Gold A team. That team was composed of several kids who played varsity HS hockey at their previous schools, plus a number of very good players combined from CDH, HM, Johnson, Sibley and Minnehaha Academy. In fact, I believe the goalie made CDH's varsity team the following year, and one or two kids played Tier 2 Jr A in Canada this past year. It was an interesting year, when all 15 skaters showed up for a game, it was 50/50 whether they won that day. But when the right 8 or 9 skaters showed up (2 lines, 3D and a goalie) they won every time hands down and even soundly beat the eventual State MN Jr Gold A champions in regular season play. Now, lets compare this Wessy Boys team to a particular high school team that I was very, very familiar with in my area, and that was the Highland Park HS, which was mainly composed of kids that came through the Highland Central Association program, specifically almost entirely composed of kids that played on the Bantam C teams or Edgecumbe rec teams. Now, anyone who really knew these two teams could realistically say that this 2012-13 Wessy's Boys team would have beaten the Highland Park HS team by 8 or more goals every time, no question. OK, with that established, let attempt to relate this to the 2014-15 data by reasonably assuming that the Highland Park team in 2012 was similar in strength relative to 2014. Look at HP's ranking score, which equals 983. Now add 8 goals to that score and you get 991, which is approximately the ranking score of both Edina & Wayzata Jr Gold A teams. Therefore, the score numbers that you are seeing associated with each team are very realistic. So to legitimately answer the question of whether the better Jr Gold A teams like Edina Green, Minnetonka, Wayzata or White Bear Lake could/would beat weaker AA and A varsity high school programs ... absolutely, Jah sure U-betcha!

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