AA Rankings for 1/1/17

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karl(east)
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AA Rankings for 1/1/17

Post by karl(east) » Sun Jan 01, 2017 4:50 pm

As usual, the week of the holiday tournaments is when this really starts to all come together. Some surprising struggles complicate things here, but at least #1 is easy.

1. Stillwater (11-0)
-The Ponies passed their biggest test to date, outworking Elk River to reinforce their claim to the top spot in the state. They’re taking care of business with no real concerns, and that probably won’t change this week.
This week: Sat at Forest Lake

2. Elk River (10-2)
-Plowed past Benilde and Lakeville North before falling to Stillwater in their St. Louis Park finale. A fairly even game and trouble for many of the teams below them keeps the Elks at #2. Blaine, which has been doing reasonably well lately, looms ahead.
This week: Sat vs. #12 Blaine

3. Grand Rapids (9-1-1)
-Enough other things happened that it didn’t hurt their ranking, but the Thunderhawks had a head-scratcher of a tie against Andover. At this point, it’s just one game, but it bears watching. This week they go on the fourth of their five overnight trips to the Metro, with the headliner coming against limping Holy Family. How do they fare against one of the state’s best defensive corps?
This week: Fri at #10 Holy Family, Sat at Hopkins

4. Edina (8-3)
-Surging cake: the Hornets found a way to win the Schwan Cup Gold, which wasn’t exactly a common pick before the season, or even before the tournament. Things are coming together for this young defense, and the win over Eden Prairie was especially big after that lopsided loss in the Edina Holiday Classic. In a very open race, they’re right there with anyone in the state. They’ve got a three-game week ahead, including one team they played just last week and a White Bear team that can catch a team on a good night.
This week: Tues at Burnsville, Thurs at #15 White Bear Lake, Sat at Holy Angels

5. St. Thomas Academy (8-2-1)
-Looked primed to win the Schwan Cup Gold before stumbling against Edina in the finale. They’re lethal in transition and have good firepower, but good, disciplined teams can still trip them up. Hill-Murray certainly qualifies as a good, disciplined team, so this week’s battle for Metro East supremacy could push them.
This week: Thurs at #8 Hill-Murray, Sat at Tartan

6. Centennial (7-2)
-The Cougars are quietly putting together a very good résumé. Their only losses are to teams ahead of them, and they’ve taken care of a lot of teams in the 10-20 range, plus added a win over Eden Prairie. Thursday’s game with Maple Grove has major section implications
This week: Thurs vs. #13 Maple Grove, Sat vs. Andover

7. Lakeville North (6-2-2)
-A win, a loss, and a tie for the Panthers in St. Louis Park. Their performance pretty much confirms where they were before the tournament started; depth remains a concern, but they clearly belong in the top 10. They now head back to South Suburban play, and on paper look good in this week’s slate.
This week: Thurs at Apple Valley, Sat vs. Rosemount

8. Hill-Murray (6-1-3)
-Remember when the Pioneers were supposed to be down this year? The tie with Eden Prairie shows they’re a serious threat, though they did slip up and suffer their first loss to Minnetonka in the Schwan Cup 3rd place game. They have a big week of Metro East play ahead of them, with games against rival St. Thomas Academy and a Mahtomedi squad that gave them a one-goal game in December.
This week: Thurs vs. #5 St. Thomas Academy, Sat at Mahtomedi

9. Eden Prairie (6-4-2)
-A winless Schwan Cup outing only bolsters the doubts about the Eagles. They’ve scored two goals in their last four games, which is just far too few for a team with this much skill. If they can’t get it together against Prior Lake this week, 2AA starts to get very interesting.
This week: Sat vs. Prior Lake

10. Holy Family (7-3-1)
-The Fire was extinguished in St. Louis Park, as a 2-goal performance in 3 games exposed the Family’s offensive struggles. A tie against Lakeville North in the finale salvaged the jamboree for them somewhat, but they’re going to need more goals, particularly in their game this week, which will help tell us which direction they’re going.
This week: Fri vs. #3 Grand Rapids

11. Minnetonka (7-5)
-A win over Hill-Murray was a nice cap to their Schwan Cup, and gives the Skippers another top win after hitting some bumps along the way. They’re on the road to Duluth this week.
This week: Sat at #14 Duluth East

12. Blaine (7-2-1)
-The Bengals continue to look pretty good of late, as they knocked off White Bear and salvaged a tie against Duluth East. The moment of reckoning awaits: after the Anoka game, they have five straight ranked teams, and begin that run with the best of them all at the moment.
This week: Thurs vs. Anoka, Sat at #2 Elk River

13. Maple Grove (7-3)
-The Crimson had a strong showing in St. Louis Park, with 1-goal wins over Holy Family to avenge an earlier loss and also Prior Lake. The loss to Lakeville North doesn’t really hurt them, either. The Centennial game this week is huge for their standing in 5AA.
This week: Thurs at #6 Centennial

14. Duluth East (5-3-1)
-The Hounds let one slip away against Blaine before settling with a tie; finishing games against top teams hasn’t been their forte to date, despite team depth and good, competitive performances. Another battle with a team in this part of the rankings this week gives them a shot at picking up another quality win.
This week: Fri at Hopkins, Sat vs. #11 Minnetonka

15. White Bear Lake (7-2-1)
-Fell to Blaine, which leaves them 0-2-1 in their last three against higher quality competition. A big test against Edina looms, and they can’t take Woodbury for granted, either.
This week: Thurs vs. #4 Edina, Sat at Woodbury

The Next Ten

Lakeville South (6-3-1)
-Didn’t play this past week, and drop some through no real fault of their own. They’re favorites in both their games this week (Buffalo and Farmington), but good goaltending could create upset threats in both.

St. Michael-Albertville (8-1-1)
-Looking impressive against weaker teams, but only tied Breck in the Schwan Cup Silver title game after beating the Mustangs a week before. More games against quality competition would really help judge them better, but in the meantime we’re left guessing based off of common opponents, and the Knights just need to keep beating the teams they should beat.

Roseau (8-3)
-Overpowered weaker competition in their own holiday tournament. A road trip to Brainerd and St. Cloud this week will be key for 8AA placement, and they can really strengthen their case for a high seed with two more section wins.

Moorhead (7-3-1)
-The Spuds had high points and low points in the St. Louis Park Jamboree, as they roughed up Holy Family for a big win, but turned around and lost to Prior Lake the next day. The potential is there, but the consistency hasn’t been so far. This week they host Thief River Falls and then play a Benilde team they just beat for the second time in two weeks.

Burnsville (4-5-1)
-Not a great team, but they have their moments, with wins over Prior Lake and Wayzata and a tie to Lakeville North. With Eastview struggling some, they’re back in position to be St. Thomas’s greatest threat in 3AA, for whatever that’s worth.

Prior Lake (5-5)
-The win over Moorhead shows some potential, and they didn’t show terribly against Stillwater or Maple Grove, either. Still, they have a little more work to do to climb back into the land of the ranked. Doing something against Eden Prairie this week would certainly provide that opportunity.

Wayzata (3-8)
-The Trojans are showing a remarkable inability to win so far, and went crashing out of the Schwan Cup Gold. The Burnsville loss was the first one to raise any serious red flags, so they stay somewhat relevant here, and it won’t take a lot of things falling into place to turn the corner. For the meantime, though, they limp along, and must deal with Cretin this week.

Cretin-Derham Hall (6-4)
-Their losses haven’t really been close, but were all against good teams, and they have a win over White Bear on there. With Benilde and Wayzata struggling so mightily, it’s not so crazy to talk about the Raiders as a possible 2-seed in 6AA. This week’s game with the Trojans gives them the chance to make their case.

Duluth Marshall (5-5)
-Brainerd is the closest thing they have to a quality win, but they have four reasonably competitive losses to quality teams and generally pass the eye test. A busy week ahead includes a battle with Cloquet that could be key for deciding the 4-seed in 7AA.

Brainerd (7-4-1)
-Lost to Duluth Marshall in the Hilltopper tournament opener, but avenged an early loss to Bemidji, and generally look like a genuine contender in the 8AA madhouse.

And now, sections, with seedings at this point in the year:

1AA
7 Lakeville North
16 Lakeville South
-Not much change here since the start of the season. January 12 brings the first meeting between the top two, which should spice up what has otherwise been a very predictable section so far. Owatonna has a win over Farmington, which has them in play for the 3-seed, but it’s pretty bleak beyond that.

2AA
9 Eden Prairie
10 Holy Family
11 Minnetonka
21 Prior Lake
-We hyped this section as the state’s best before the season, and while it’s still strong, all four contenders have fallen in the rankings since the start. Minnetonka’s win over Prior Lake all but consigns the Lakers to the 4-seed unless they can pull off a big upset. The Minnetonka-EP games down the stretch will carry a lot of weight, and a Prior Lake win over Eden Prairie this Saturday could cause some disruption. With no game between the Eagles and the Family, the Fire’s only road to the top seed requires a win over Minnetonka and some help from the Skippers when they play EP.

3AA
5 St. Thomas Academy
20 Burnsville
-The Cadets are all alone here. Eastview looked like an early upset threat, but recent losses to Eagan and Champlin Park suggest the Lightning are just as likely to lose in the first round. Burnsville is doing enough in some of their games against good teams to look like the Cadets’ greatest threat at the moment. Eastview, Rosemount, and Eagan are battling it out for the 3-5 spots, and potentially East Ridge as well, though the Raptors’ record is pretty bad. Bloomington Jefferson has one win in 11 games; granted, they’ve played a tough schedule, but that’s eye-popping.

4AA
1 Stillwater
8 Hill-Murray
15 White Bear Lake
-Stillwater’s still rolling here, and the Hill-White Bear tie almost assures them of the 2 and 3 spots. If the Bears can do anything against Stillwater other than lose twice, they deserve the 2-seed; otherwise, it’ll come down to body of work between those two. The first of those two meetings is next Saturday. Even Woodbury is off to a pretty good start, and is probably the 4-seed.

5AA
6 Centennial
12 Blaine
13 Maple Grove
-This section’s looking a bit stronger than expected. Centennial and Maple Grove play on Thursday, after which the big three will all have played each other once, with a second round to come later. A win against the Crimson will make it tough to dislodge the Cougars from the top seed, which is valuable in a section with 3 contenders.

6AA
4 Edina
22 Wayzata
23 Cretin-Derham Hall
-The Hornets are sitting pretty here, with big wins over the next two teams in line, and Wayzata and Benilde—last season’s state champ and regular season #1—sitting at a combined 5-16. This week’s Wayzata-Cretin game could well decide the 2-seed, though the Wayzata-Benilde game later this month could influence things, and there are those two Lake Conference Edina-Wayzata games waiting out there.

7AA
2 Elk River
3 Grand Rapids
14 Duluth East
24 Duluth Marshall
-Elk River has the inside track for the top seed, which is valuable in a section where the top 3 have separated themselves somewhat. Beat East, and it’s probably theirs, while Rapids has to beat East and probably get an East win over the Elks to claim that spot. East has probably done enough against the 4-6 teams to guarantee a top 3 seed, and control their own destiny with their two games left against the big guns. That Rapids-East 7AA final rematch takes place next Thursday. Duluth Marshall can all but lock up the 4-seed with wins over Cloquet and Andover this week.

8AA
17 St. Michael-Albertville
18 Roseau
25 Brainerd
19 Moorhead
-This is so wide open and there are so many remaining games that it’s almost not worth trying to seed teams now, but this is my best shot. I’m keeping STMA at #1 despite the Buffalo loss since they’ve been the most consistent team otherwise. Roseau is next in line due to their strong start in section play, while Moorhead, despite its potential, is stuck at #4 right now due to the Roseau and Brainerd losses. Bemidji just misses the top 25, and would be #5 in my book; I think Buffalo needs another good section win to go higher than #6, but we already know they can beat STMA. Things run through the Rams over the next couple of weeks, as they play Brainerd and STMA, plus St. Cloud. We’ll see if those help or just make it more of a mess.

WestMetro
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Post by WestMetro » Sun Jan 01, 2017 7:34 pm

Excellent work Karl, in a thoroughly confusing last couple weeks!

hockey59
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Post by hockey59 » Sun Jan 01, 2017 8:30 pm

As always an excellent job by Karl! I do think an argument can be made that Edina should leapfrog GR & ER to the #2 spot. GR tying Andover merits a small drop - even though Edina lost to GR earlier. And Edina beat ER earlier. And Edina's loss to open the season vs Holy Family looks like an anomoly now, by a young but rising team.

elliott70
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Post by elliott70 » Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:18 am

hockey59 wrote:As always an excellent job by Karl! I do think an argument can be made that Edina should leapfrog GR & ER to the #2 spot. GR tying Andover merits a small drop - even though Edina lost to GR earlier. And Edina beat ER earlier. And Edina's loss to open the season vs Holy Family looks like an anomoly now, by a young but rising team.
ditto

karl(east)
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Post by karl(east) » Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:03 am

hockey59 wrote:As always an excellent job by Karl! I do think an argument can be made that Edina should leapfrog GR & ER to the #2 spot. GR tying Andover merits a small drop - even though Edina lost to GR earlier. And Edina beat ER earlier. And Edina's loss to open the season vs Holy Family looks like an anomoly now, by a young but rising team.
Yeah, I have no objection with anyone putting Edina at #2. They're on a roll, clearly, and the talent is there. A few more losses right now, but I suppose that will happen with their schedule.

observer
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Post by observer » Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:04 am

Go Rosemount

Green and White Fan
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Post by Green and White Fan » Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:16 am

Great rankings. We appreciate the time you put in and the logic you use!

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