8AA play-offs

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silentbutdeadly3139
Posts: 474
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 3:50 pm

Post by silentbutdeadly3139 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:12 pm

Green and White Fan wrote:Not very worried at all. Roseau could be from 2nd to 5th, but just fun to speculate. Been having fun speculating on seedings for more than 20 years, probably before STMA had a hockey program. It is a fun time of the year. Instead of getting your undies bunched up, make your predictions and give your reasons and see if you are close. The mom's on here seem to think STMA is a lock at 2nd and I have shown reasons why that could be in doubt. The section is very spread out and it is difficult to play everyone twice. This year, 4 of the better teams happen to be on the north side of the section and by them playing each other twice has benefited STMA who plays the weaker sections teams twice. Nobody can dispute that. Another year the balance of power might be in the southern part, but we are having to seed this year. I am curious, if STMA somehow lost to Rogers tonight (hypothetical) since it is the last game of the season does that put Rogers ahead of STMA?? If you looked at head to head being the factor and the 2nd game being the only one that matters in some eyes, then I guess that would have to be the way it went. My guess is that won't happen, but using the hockey mom's logic, that's the way it would have to go. To question of how to improve this, maybe every section team needs to play each other at least once, preferably mid-January and on. If you play a team twice then the second game is the only one that can be used for seeding purposes to have it somewhat fair.
Sigh not sure why I came back other than you asked for my prediction and reason. I'll use Elliots because it makes sense.
elliott70 wrote:Based on the people I have talked with it will be:

Moorhead
St Mikes
Bemidji
Roseau
Brainerd
Buffalo
Rogers
St Cloud
The reasoning, and feel free to have your husband ( I threw that in there cause you seem to like personal insults) help you understand because you almost made the argument for me : section spread out not knowing yr to yr who is strong in order to make schedules in time etc. but then you made an ignorant statements to try to make your point
if STMA somehow lost to Rogers tonight (hypothetical) since it is the last game of the season does that put Rogers ahead of STMA?? If you looked at head to head being the factor and the 2nd game being the only one that matters in some eyes
Never said the last is the only one that matter but the most recent holds more weight than earlier contests as does body of work. So St. Mike barely over Bemidji because Bemidji beat them recently but STMA body of work including non-section games gives them an very slight edge and STMA and Bemidji over Roseau because of recent head to head results as well as body of work and how the teams are trending. Your right it would be great if section games were towards the end of the yr ... other sports like MLB, college basketball etc. try to play their conference/division games at the end of the year to get the most accurate picture of who is the best at playoff time.

silentbutdeadly3139
Posts: 474
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Post by silentbutdeadly3139 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:15 pm

elliott70 wrote:
Green and White Fan wrote:Not very worried at all. Roseau could be from 2nd to 5th, but just fun to speculate. Been having fun speculating on seedings for more than 20 years, probably before STMA had a hockey program. It is a fun time of the year. Instead of getting your undies bunched up, make your predictions and give your reasons and see if you are close. The mom's on here seem to think STMA is a lock at 2nd and I have shown reasons why that could be in doubt. The section is very spread out and it is difficult to play everyone twice. This year, 4 of the better teams happen to be on the north side of the section and by them playing each other twice has benefited STMA who plays the weaker sections teams twice. Nobody can dispute that. Another year the balance of power might be in the southern part, but we are having to seed this year. I am curious, if STMA somehow lost to Rogers tonight (hypothetical) since it is the last game of the season does that put Rogers ahead of STMA?? If you looked at head to head being the factor and the 2nd game being the only one that matters in some eyes, then I guess that would have to be the way it went. My guess is that won't happen, but using the hockey mom's logic, that's the way it would have to go. To question of how to improve this, maybe every section team needs to play each other at least once, preferably mid-January and on. If you play a team twice then the second game is the only one that can be used for seeding purposes to have it somewhat fair.
Logic dictates
Moorhead (no one seems to argue this one)
Bemidji
St Mikes
Roseau
Brainerd

If St Mikes loses tonight, 3rd is definite and an argument for moving Roseau to 3 could come up (assuming they do not lose tonight).

Of course there is an argument for St Mikes to be 2nd but not likely to happen.
Modified points will be:
Moorhead 56
Bemidji 34
StM 33 (assuming they win tonight)
Roseau (assuming they win tonight) 27
Brainerd 23
Bemidji at 2 and St Mike at 3 would also seem reasonable... no problem with that

Green and White Fan
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Post by Green and White Fan » Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:40 pm

Elliot what is the point system you are using?

grindiangrad-80
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Post by grindiangrad-80 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:53 pm

The reasoning, and feel free to have your husband

Hold it! Somebodies husband is here? Then I need to adjust my numbers from 2-11 people to 3-12. :)

woodstickguy
Posts: 69
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Post by woodstickguy » Thu Feb 16, 2017 2:18 pm

grindiangrad-80 wrote:The reasoning, and feel free to have your husband

Hold it! Somebodies husband is here? Then I need to adjust my numbers from 2-11 people to 3-12. :)
4-13 now! STMA would love to play Brainerd but I have been told that the last two years Brainerd has refused to schedule them. Maybe just a logistical thing?

elliott70
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Post by elliott70 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 2:26 pm

Green and White Fan wrote:Elliot what is the point system you are using?
How the coaches will vote throwing out the high and low score.

backcheck9
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Post by backcheck9 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 2:26 pm

I agree with Elliot as well. It makes the most sense out of a no sense section. A Brainerd/Roseau game would make for a great first round game based on their last meeting.
People go back and forth about who beat who and where they should rank but has anyone in this section been impressive? Moorhead handling HF, GR and Minnetonka is the closet thing to it for me but they also lost to Brainerd and Roseau and tied Breck and STMA. They are definitely number 1 in this section and the favorite to win it, but how confident will you be they will walk through? Most of the teams have had some nice wins and some head scratchers.
Moorhead #1 and draw the rest from the hat! That might work better.

elliott70
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Post by elliott70 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 3:26 pm

mulefarm wrote:Just looked at Roseau's schedule, not very challenging. Pretty hard for them to expect a high seed.[/quote

quote 7timechamp "More challenging than stma schedule by far. Just look at the section records and the teams they schedule. STMA has one win over top section opponents. The rest of their wins are against the bottom three seeds. I'd put them at 5."

Speaking of strength of schedule

Moorhead 17
Bemidji 19
Brainerd 28
Roseau 30
St Michaels 40
Buffalo 42
St Cloud 64
Rogers 70

So I guess Roseau wins that battle.

Green and White Fan
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Post by Green and White Fan » Thu Feb 16, 2017 3:29 pm

Makes sense, my numbers using golf math where smaller is better has:

Moorhead: 7
STMA : 17
Bemidji:19
Roseau : 21
Brainerd: 31

There is movement room as the way I have it, there is only 4 points separating 2-4.

I sure wish they would meet face to face instead of faxing in votes. It would make for a very lively discussion.

Syd Barrett
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Post by Syd Barrett » Thu Feb 16, 2017 4:03 pm

Green and White Fan wrote:Makes sense, my numbers using golf math where smaller is better has:

Moorhead: 7
STMA : 17
Bemidji:19
Roseau : 21
Brainerd: 31

There is movement room as the way I have it, there is only 4 points separating 2-4.

I sure wish they would meet face to face instead of faxing in votes. It would make for a very lively discussion.
I might as well get my 2-cents worth in :^o
If Brainerd had played STMA just once that would of determined the top 4 teams without much argument. Not a real long road trip for either team, I can't understand why the Wizard didn't get them on the schedule ](*,) ](*,)

Cobber
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Post by Cobber » Thu Feb 16, 2017 5:14 pm

All the talk about who has the toughest schedule the real issue is section opponents does anyone know what everyone's record is against section opponents.

elliott70
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Post by elliott70 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 5:16 pm

Cobber wrote:All the talk about who has the toughest schedule the real issue is section opponents does anyone know what everyone's record is against section opponents.

Yes

elliott70
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Post by elliott70 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 5:21 pm

No. 10 Moorhead 6-2-1
No. 12 St. Michael-Albertville 4-2-1
No. 22 Bemidji (96.1) 6-5-0
No. 23 Roseau (95.4) 6-3-0
No. 26 Brainerd (92.7) 5-4-1
No. 29 Buffalo (89.8) 3-5-0
No. 35 Rogers (80.9) 1-5-0
No. 36 St. Cloud (79.8) 1-6-1

Here you go but you are wrong. Section opponents means something but you cannot hang your hat on it. Not everyone plays everyone and not everyone plays teams twice.

If StMA played Moorhead and Bemidji and Brainerd twice they may have been 4-6-1.

Cobber
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Post by Cobber » Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:27 pm

So how about if you take the top 5 teams that are in question and figure what the records are of those teams playing each other being everyone was beating everyone. That would give a fair evaluation of the top 5 teams playing each other.

CornerBar
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Post by CornerBar » Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:53 pm

Cobber wrote:So how about if you take the top 5 teams that are in question and figure what the records are of those teams playing each other being everyone was beating everyone. That would give a fair evaluation of the top 5 teams playing each other.
Against top 5:
Moorhead 4-2-1 57%
Bemidji 3-4 43%
Roseau 4-3 57%
STMA 1-1-1 33%
Brainerd 4-4 50%

This would put the seedings as follows
1. Moorhead - split with Roseau but won the more recent meeting by a landslide
2. Roseau
3. Brainerd
4. Bemidji
5. STMA

CornerBar
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Post by CornerBar » Fri Feb 17, 2017 8:55 am

Official per MSHSL.org
1. Moorhead
2. STMA
3. Roseau
4. Brainerd
5. Bemidji
6. Buffalo
7. St. Cloud
8. Rogers

CornerBar
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Post by CornerBar » Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:00 am

My biggest takeaways from the seedings
1. STMA got rewarded rather than punished for playing everyone only once and some teams not at all.
2 Bemidji got totally hosed. IMO we're a 2 or 3 seed. But if they were gonna be a 4 or 5 they had to be behind Brainerd so I guess I see that.
3. Roseau got rewarded for their hot streak early in the season when they rattled off a few section wins before cooling down later in the year.

We're probably going to see the best game come in the semis between Moorhead and Bemidji if the Jacks can beat Brainerd, which is unfortunate. I don't have a doubt in my mind that Moorhead wins this section now, but I'd like to see someone prove me wrong.

Green and White Fan
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Post by Green and White Fan » Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:16 am

Wow! The logic that the entire season matters played out. I agree, STMA got rewarded for being smart and playing the better teams only once and Bemidji didn't get a lot of credit for the way they are now playing. We will see how it plays out and see if the seeders are right or wrong. Moorhead may be heads and tails ahead of everyone and it may not matter.

elliott70
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Post by elliott70 » Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:30 am

Moorhead vs Rogers
Brainerd vs Bemidji

STMA vs St Cloud
Roseau vs Buffalo

About the only sure pick is the Moorhead game.
The other 3 while not toss ups are surely subject to upset.

Brainerd - Bemidji is probably a toss-up.

I will predict

7TIMECHAMPS
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Post by 7TIMECHAMPS » Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:33 am

I agree with corner bar that it seems like Bemidji was the one that got screwed. I would've had Bemidji/Roseau 2-3(either order) and stma/Brainerd 4-5(either order). When it's this close I would've looked more at who you played in the section as I have said earlier. As a Ram fan I'm obviously happy with Roseau at 3 because I had thought they may slip to 4. One thing I will point out as to Roseau's section hot/cold streak topic is that Roseau's wins early in the year were at home and the losses were on the road. Meaning I think location also played a factor in those games. It wouldn't have seemed fair to give Roseau's wins less weight because they played their early section games at home.

silentbutdeadly3139
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Post by silentbutdeadly3139 » Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:34 am

CornerBar wrote:My biggest takeaways from the seedings
1. STMA got rewarded rather than punished for playing everyone only once and some teams not at all.
2 Bemidji got totally hosed. IMO we're a 2 or 3 seed. But if they were gonna be a 4 or 5 they had to be behind Brainerd so I guess I see that.
3. Roseau got rewarded for their hot streak early in the season when they rattled off a few section wins before cooling down later in the year.

We're probably going to see the best game come in the semis between Moorhead and Bemidji if the Jacks can beat Brainerd, which is unfortunate. I don't have a doubt in my mind that Moorhead wins this section now, but I'd like to see someone prove me wrong.
Why no doubt in your mind with these seeds ? If someone could beat them before seeds they can still beat them now

Green and White Fan
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Post by Green and White Fan » Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:41 am

From what I have gathered, Bemidji and Brainerd ended up tied and they decided it with a coin flip. Not certain if that is true, but only what i am hearing.

mulefarm
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Post by mulefarm » Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:48 am

Definitely different philosophy's between 7 & 8. Cloquet got rewarded for late season surge and Bemidji got hosed. Roseau got rewarded for total season and GR got hosed.

CornerBar
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Post by CornerBar » Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:51 am

silentbutdeadly3139 wrote:
CornerBar wrote:My biggest takeaways from the seedings
1. STMA got rewarded rather than punished for playing everyone only once and some teams not at all.
2 Bemidji got totally hosed. IMO we're a 2 or 3 seed. But if they were gonna be a 4 or 5 they had to be behind Brainerd so I guess I see that.
3. Roseau got rewarded for their hot streak early in the season when they rattled off a few section wins before cooling down later in the year.

We're probably going to see the best game come in the semis between Moorhead and Bemidji if the Jacks can beat Brainerd, which is unfortunate. I don't have a doubt in my mind that Moorhead wins this section now, but I'd like to see someone prove me wrong.
Why no doubt in your mind with these seeds ? If someone could beat them before seeds they can still beat them now
I agree anyone can beat anyone, I just think that they have an easier path to state now. Incase you haven't noticed yet, I've always viewed Bemidji and Brainerd as better teams than St. Mikes and Roseau. Before seedings were released I envisioned Moorhead having to play Brainerd/Roseau in semis, and Bemidji in the final. But now I think that Bemidji is really the only team that could beat them. Playoff games are typically won by who's hot, and who has a hot goalie. The only team that I thought was capable of that was Bemidji with the way they were winning big games down the stretch. But like I said, is like to see someone prove me wrong.

BodyShots
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Post by BodyShots » Fri Feb 17, 2017 10:04 am

mulefarm wrote:Definitely different philosophy's between 7 & 8. Cloquet got rewarded for late season surge and Bemidji got hosed. Roseau got rewarded for total season and GR got hosed.
Great point Mule!

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