I always had issues with this class comparison. I don't know if the math is the same now, but, when it was initially explained to me a handful of years ago, the only thing that mattered was the class of the team you played. So playing the worst AA team was better than playing the best A team. In hockey/basketball, it generally sorts itself out over the course of a season, but can be a train wreck in football with only 5 games and many conferences with multiple classes.east hockey wrote:Haven't done any comparison against QRF. Lost interest in that system once I learned that they penalize a team for playing Class A competition. So, you get penalized for playing Hermantown but not Cambridge?goldy313 wrote:It is a pretty much a given Page2stat beats the coaches......and congratulations for that! FWIW i think it is a better system than coaches voting and has far less bias than Karl.
Now the question is does Page2stat beat QRF?
QRF has pretty much replaced coaches voting and the AP coaches poll in football and my opinion is that has been a step in the right direction. The next step in hockey would to be move in that direction, but to my eye Page2stat (Hal) is superior.
I think QRF could be good and am intrigued by the idea that it goes to a tie-breaker system if the rating difference between two teams is within a certain threshold. Not sure of a system, tho, which uses a coin flip if the other tie-breakers don't work! Doing something like that with PageStat could be an interesting study for me to undertake, but I think I would stop after head to head. If head to head doesn't break the tie, then revert back to PageStat.
I have a problem with any computerized system, but this may just be the result of my in-bred bias--it doesn't weigh section games heavier than non-section games. I tried to play around with adding a "weight" factor to section games, and the results got really wonky, so I stopped.
PageStat is +4, but at least four disagreements remain, and I don't feel good about who PageStat has picked in any of them. It's picking South over Century, Blaine over Maple Grove, Wayzata over CDH and Brainerd over STMA. But again, maybe PageStat is smarter than my powers of observations. After all, it's been smarter than the coaches (and other computer systems) which seed them.
Oh, before I forget to bring this up--had QRF ignored the tie-breaker, it would have picked Marshall to beat Cloquet. So there is that.
What this shows is that we want a system that is equally biased all the time. How do you compare two 7-1 teams who haven't played? Or how about a 6-2 team that beat the 7-1 team?
It's clear that a computer system is wanted and unfortunate that no one is coming up with one better than QRF.