AA Rankings for 1/7/18

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karl(east)
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AA Rankings for 1/7/18

Post by karl(east) » Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:06 am

What chaos: the top four are obvious but could be drawn out of a hat, and after a pretty clear #5, there are a lot of different cases that could be made. Here’s my attempt:

1. Duluth East (8-0-3)
-The Hounds made a statement with a solid win over previous #1 Minnetonka, and are undefeated against a pretty good schedule. There are obviously some caution flags in their ties and narrow wins; there’s very, very little separating the top four, and there’s enough parity this season that a bad night could drop them behind all this group. But for now, undefeated is undefeated, and this team can be as complete as anyone in the state when they’re on. Their second half schedule is noticeably easier than the first, with a lot of teams beyond the top ten but capable of upsets if enough goes right. Hard to know what to make of their coming week, which features some down teams that are nonetheless rivals and a skilled team in a tailspin.
This week: Mon vs. Duluth Denfeld, Thurs at Grand Rapids, Sat at #14 Eden Prairie

2. Minnetonka (11-1-2)
-The Skippers suffered their first loss of the season at the hands of the Greyhounds. I’d still rank their depth and puck movement on par with anyone’s, but they couldn’t match East’s physical play or top line firepower, and need Josh Luedtke back. Still, the rest of their résumé is hard to argue with, so they hold true at #2, and a have a couple possibly interesting games this week to warm them up for Lake play.
This week: Thurs vs. Blaine, Sat vs. Hermantown

3. St. Thomas Academy (9-1-1)
-The Cadets took care of Mahtomedi in their lone game this past week, which keeps them hovering right behind Minnetonka. They don’t quite have the collection of quality wins of some of these other teams, but they are taking care of business, and like East, they don’t have anyone who’s really on their talent level for the rest of the regular season. Eden Prairie did give them a one-goal game the first time around, so who knows what to expect in that one.
This week: Tues vs. #14 Eden Prairie, Thurs vs. Hastings

4. Edina (13-1)
-The Hornets’ overtime win over White Bear again added to the sense that they’re not on some other level from other top teams, but it was a win, and if Curt Giles’ return can instill some discipline, the talent is still there to roll through this field. But, based on recent results, they have to fall toward the back of these top four. Just one game this week, and it comes against a team they should beat, but could make things interesting if enough goes right.
This week: Sat vs. Blaine

5. Holy Family (12-2-1)
-As expected, the Fire had a strong trip up north, and are now knocking on the door of the clear top four. They’ve lost both their games against that group and they weren’t especially close, but aside from the Orono tie they’ve taken care of everyone else, including some quality competition. Their only game this week is against suddenly interesting Lakeville South.
This week: Thurs vs. Lakeville South

6. Cretin-Derham Hall (10-2-1)
-The Raiders continued their strong streak against Suburban East competition, and while their list of quality wins is not that of a #6 team, no one else is making anything resembling a good claim to this spot. They play one of their more important conference games this week when they host Stillwater.
This week: Thurs vs. Stillwater, Sat vs. Park of Cottage Grove

7. White Bear Lake (8-2-2)
-The Bears made it look like they belonged in the top five with a very good showing against Edina, then turned around and coughed one up against Rochester Century. Three goals on eight shots in a game right after a big one generally screams “fluke,” so I’m not knocking them too much, but another result like this will certainly drop them. If they can avoid such debacles in the future, they have a pretty good shot of running the table in the regular season from here, with Cretin the only ranked team left on their calendar. They can effectively clinch the top seed in 4AA with a win over Stillwater this week.
This week: Tues vs. Stillwater, Thurs vs. Park of Cottage Grove, Sat at Woodbury

8. Duluth Marshall (10-3-1)
-The Hilltoppers took care of business against Maple Grove, and with much ugliness around them in the rankings, they’re sliding on up. Much like Cretin, the quality win list isn’t phenomenal (their best is probably over Brainerd), but they are winning when others aren’t. This week’s Cloquet game is significant for gauging 7AA.
This week: Tues at Cloquet, Sat at Champlin Park

9. Centennial (8-3-2)
-I was feeling pretty good about the Cougars’ top ten credentials after comfortable wins over Brainerd and Maple Grove, and then they went and laid an egg against Andover. That was their first loss to a lower-ranked team, and we’ll see where this sudden Andover buzzsaw goes from here. They stay this high largely on the strength of that early win over Elk River, so if the tables turn in the rematch, they’ll probably exit the top ten.
This week: Thurs vs. Anoka, Sat vs. #10 Elk River

10. Elk River (10-4)
-The Elks are showing serious improvement, particularly in the defensive end, as they gave up just one goal in wins over two quality conference opponents, Andover and Blaine. If they can do something in their Centennial rematch, they can firm up a top ten slot and start turning some heads here.
This week: Tues at Champlin Park, Sat at #9 Centennial

11. Moorhead (10-5)
-The Spuds held true to their early season script this past week: domination against 8AA completion as they rolled over St. Michael-Albertville, but little traction against quality teams elsewhere in the state, as they fell in overtime to Wayzata. Deeper, capable defensive teams are able to shut them down. A rematch with Brainerd this week will tell us if anyone has any prayer of beating them in the section.
This week: Thurs at #15 Brainerd, Sat vs. Breck

12. Wayzata (6-6-1)
-Trojans gonna be Trojans: Wayzata lost to St. Louis Park and then beat Moorhead. Ranking them with any sanity before February is a futile cause, it seems. On paper they’re better than their opponents this week, which means they’ll probably lose to both of them.
This week: Thurs at Hill-Murray, Sat at Delano

13. Andover (10-3)
-Add the Huskies to the list of incomprehensible teams so far: after a loss to Forest Lake and a fairly weak showing against Elk River, they turned around and blasted Cloquet and, even more impressively, Centennial. That allows them to make a significant jump, and well I have some reservations about that, it’s not like anyone else in here is making a great case for this spot. They can solidify their contender status with a good showing against Maple Grove this week.
This week: Thurs vs. Maple Grove

14. Eden Prairie (5-6-1)
-The Eagles had a very ugly week, with a shellacking at the hands of Lakeville South and a loss to Prior Lake that may prove costly come section seeding time. They still have a bunch of quality wins that keep them from going off the cliff, but they’ll need to show something, and soon. It doesn’t get any easier this week, with games against two of the big four and a mystery Cloquet team sandwiched in between.
This week: Tues at #3 St. Thomas Academy, Fri vs. Cloquet, Sat vs. #1 Duluth East

15. Brainerd (8-4)
-They’ve got a win over Wayzata and none of their losses are to bad teams, so the Warriors continue to lurk around here. The Moorhead rematch is their chance to make a statement, but they can’t sleep on a decent-looking St. Cloud team two days before that, either.
This week: Tues at St. Cloud, Thurs vs. #11 Moorhead

The Next Ten

Eastview (10-3)
-This Lightning squad is plugging along and collecting wins, admittedly against a fairly soft schedule. The Lakeville South game this week could bring some intrigue.

Hill-Murray (5-4-4)
-The Pioneers got a decent win over Benilde, but hardly one to make me reassess to my placement of them just on the verge of the top 15. An interesting week awaits, as they face enigmatic Wayzata and a Mahtomedi team that gave them one of those four ties.

Cloquet (9-5-1)
-The Jacks crashed and burned against Andover, which continues a hard to read run of games and drops them further amid the 7AA chase pack. The week ahead is an important one for attaining any level of consistency, with a big game against Marshall and a talented but struggling opponent in Eden Prairie.

St. Michael-Albertville (7-4)
-The Knights got blown out by Moorhead, which continues their struggles against higher-ranked competition. All their wins are over teams below them, and all their losses are to teams above them, which makes this blessedly simple. There isn’t a whole lot of middle ground in this schedule, and it goes back to the easier side this week, with Buffalo and St. Francis.

Chaska (7-5)
-I’m inclined to cut this team some slack given its rash of missing important players, and it still managed to be fairly competitive with Benilde. St. Louis Park this week will be interesting.

St. Louis Park (6-5-1)
-A win over Wayzata is another step in the right direction for the Orioles. Games with Chaska and Blake this week will say a lot more about them.

Lakeville South (7-4-1)
-After meandering through the wilderness for much of the past month, the Cougars came roaring out with a big win over Eden Prairie. We’ll see if they can build on that against two quality opponents, Eastview and Holy Family, this coming week.

Blaine (3-5-3)
-Lost to Anoka, which gives them a second ugly result. They’ve had their flashes in quality ties, but this team has only one remotely quality win (over fading Maple Grove) and hasn’t shown a whole lot of burst. That record probably isn’t getting any better this week, with games against Minnetonka and Edina.

Lakeville North (5-6-1)
-Took care of Farmington in their lone game. Like Blaine, they’ve shown flashes of quality against higher-ranked teams, but also have had their share of clunkers. Another one-game week awaits, with Rosemount looking to make a statement here.

Rosemount (10-2)
-I’ll reward the Irish’s winning run and nudge them into the top 25; they’ve done reasonably well against teams hovering in this tier. The week ahead, which features Eagan (who just miss here) and Lakeville North, could lend some clarity to the mess of South Suburban teams hovering in here.
Last edited by karl(east) on Sun Jan 07, 2018 6:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.

elliott70
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Post by elliott70 » Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:50 am

St. Michael-Albertville (7-4)
-The Knights got blown out by Moorhead, which continues their struggles against higher-ranked competition. All their wins are over teams above them, and all their losses are to teams below them, which makes this blessedly simple. There isn’t a whole lot of middle ground in this schedule, and it goes back to the easier side this week, with Buffalo and St. Francis.

It appears I am reading this wrong or maybe, just maybe, you wrote it backwards.
St Michael has lost to teams rated higher than them.

ryguyMN
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Post by ryguyMN » Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:39 am

My weekly rankings, or attempt to dissect the madness:

1. Duluth East
2. Minnetonka
3. St. Thomas Academy
4. Edina
5. Holy Family
6. Cretin-Derham Hall
7. Duluth Marshall
8. White Bear Lake
9. Elk River
10. Moorhead

I don't have any strong feelings for teams after Cretin, the gap between teams becomes so narrow, it's splitting hairs at this point until we can get some more definition.

More:
http://www.minnpuck.com/2018/01/minn-pu ... -1718.html
Ryan

WestMetro
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Post by WestMetro » Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:12 pm

Excellent work as usual Karl! Agree with top 4, I’m surprised you moved the Hounds all the way up there so quickly! Thought you’d be more cautious . All I know is, I got the feeling the Hounds and the hornets will meet in the championship game, rematch of the 1-0 1997 championship . I Told Mrs Cochran I’d see here there!

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Post by O-townClown » Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:55 pm

1-4. Duluth East, Minnetonka, St. Thomas Academy, Edina

5. Holy Family

6-8. Cretin-Derham Hall, Duluth Marshall, White Bear Lake

9+. Wide open

Seems to be agreement from everyone on this right now.
Be kind. Rewind.

karl(east)
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Post by karl(east) » Sun Jan 07, 2018 6:05 pm

I've corrected the dyslexia in the STMA comment.

WestMetro, you know me well...I don't particularly like throwing East up at the top, but any other logic seemed more tortured than what I have here. I'm not going to be afraid to yank teams around in that top four if they start trending up or down, even if they're not necessarily losing. At this point in time, I like East a little more than the others in the top four.

Seems like we have general agreement on the top 10-ish teams, in some order within two different tiers. The Centennial-Elk River game this week should be helpful. And I think Wayzata and (especially) Moorhead have the talent to be a little higher, but just aren't showing it right now. After that, it's a bunch of teams who can probably beat each other on any given night.

CakeScout17
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A flawless ranking, Karl

Post by CakeScout17 » Sun Jan 07, 2018 7:05 pm

Perfect rankings and backed with logic and feel. So fun to read.
Ok, thats enough kissing up.

From the games Ive attended Tonka, although down Luedtke, met its match physically in DE and ended up simply bit over-powered as game went on. This is exactly what Tonka did to Edina. Drawing parallels, St Thomas and Tonka could've switched sweaters at intermission during Schwan's Cup finale and nobody would've known - thats what makes this weeks' rankings spot on in my mind. Edina definitely a clear 4th to the Top 3. Although HF is young with a 'weaker' season-long SOS they ARE getting better, more confident and gritty - they'll prove interesting test in Sections for sure as Rahn builds them up. They are a solid 5th. To me? after #5 is where there's a clear drop and will be fluid as season rambles on.

Depending on the State brackets it feels like a Tonka/DE rematch. Edina must first unseat the recent Wayzata sectional curse. Albeit not sure Wayzata actually plays hockey in sections versus Edina, but wins are wins - be physical, forecheck entire game and collapse the D between the dots. That's their formula and they are sticking with it till proven otherwise (see Tonka and now everybody versus Edina).

Now - here's some comparative measurables for overall team upperclassmen, size & experience regarding Karl's current Top 5 rankings with a snapshot at the strong back-to-back Edina titles teams of '13 & '14 and the eye-opening correlation to the current #1;


Most Seniors: 1) Mtka 2) DE 3) Edina & St T (tie)

Most Upperclassmen: 1) DE 2) St T 3) Tonka 4) Edina

Average age: 1) DE - 17.96 2) Mtka - 17.56 3) HF - 17.46 4) Edina - 17.12
5) St T - 16.91

Average height: 1) DE - 6' 2) Mtka - 5' 9 1/2" 3) Edina - 5' 9"
4) HF - 5' 8 1/2" 5) St T - 5' 8 1/4"

Average weight: 1) DE - 180 lbs 2) Mtka - 172 lbs 3) St T - 170 lbs
4) HF - 166 lbs 5) Edina - 162 lbs

Total Games Played (team exp) : 1) DE - 806 2) St T - 722 3) Edina - 718
4) Mtka - 681 5) HF - 560

Look back:
*2012-13 Edina averaged 6' / 180 lbs (see 2017-18 DE)
2013-14 Edina averaged 5'11" / 176 lbs
2017-18 Edina averages 5'9" / 162 lbs

Of course, injuries, upsets and the one thing you can't measure - the HEART of a CHAMPION - but interesting nonetheless. Time will tell...but I'll put $ on talent + grit + coaching/motivation on Tonka & DE meeting again.
Edina notch below although perhaps the most entertaining view.

Its gonna be fun - Good luck and health to all![/b]

northwoods oldtimer
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/7/18

Post by northwoods oldtimer » Sun Jan 07, 2018 7:06 pm

karl(east) wrote:What chaos: the top four are obvious but could be drawn out of a hat, and after a pretty clear #5, there are a lot of different cases that could be made. Here’s my attempt:

1. Duluth East (8-0-3)
-The Hounds made a statement with a solid win over previous #1 Minnetonka, and are undefeated against a pretty good schedule. There are obviously some caution flags in their ties and narrow wins; there’s very, very little separating the top four, and there’s enough parity this season that a bad night could drop them behind all this group. But for now, undefeated is undefeated, and this team can be as complete as anyone in the state when they’re on. Their second half schedule is noticeably easier than the first, with a lot of teams beyond the top ten but capable of upsets if enough goes right. Hard to know what to make of their coming week, which features some down teams that are nonetheless rivals and a skilled team in a tailspin.
This week: Mon vs. Duluth Denfeld, Thurs at Grand Rapids, Sat at #14 Eden Prairie

2. Minnetonka (11-1-2)
-The Skippers suffered their first loss of the season at the hands of the Greyhounds. I’d still rank their depth and puck movement on par with anyone’s, but they couldn’t match East’s physical play or top line firepower, and need Josh Luedtke back. Still, the rest of their résumé is hard to argue with, so they hold true at #2, and a have a couple possibly interesting games this week to warm them up for Lake play.
This week: Thurs vs. Blaine, Sat vs. Hermantown

3. St. Thomas Academy (9-1-1)
-The Cadets took care of Mahtomedi in their lone game this past week, which keeps them hovering right behind Minnetonka. They don’t quite have the collection of quality wins of some of these other teams, but they are taking care of business, and like East, they don’t have anyone who’s really on their talent level for the rest of the regular season. Eden Prairie did give them a one-goal game the first time around, so who knows what to expect in that one.
This week: Tues vs. #14 Eden Prairie, Thurs vs. Hastings

4. Edina (13-1)
-The Hornets’ overtime win over White Bear again added to the sense that they’re not on some other level from other top teams, but it was a win, and if Curt Giles’ return can instill some discipline, the talent is still there to roll through this field. But, based on recent results, they have to fall toward the back of these top four. Just one game this week, and it comes against a team they should beat, but could make things interesting if enough goes right.
This week: Sat vs. Blaine

5. Holy Family (12-2-1)
-As expected, the Fire had a strong trip up north, and are now knocking on the door of the clear top four. They’ve lost both their games against that group and they weren’t especially close, but aside from the Orono tie they’ve taken care of everyone else, including some quality competition. Their only game this week is against suddenly interesting Lakeville South.
This week: Thurs vs. Lakeville South

6. Cretin-Derham Hall (10-2-1)
-The Raiders continued their strong streak against Suburban East competition, and while their list of quality wins is not that of a #6 team, no one else is making anything resembling a good claim to this spot. They play one of their more important conference games this week when they host Stillwater.
This week: Thurs vs. Stillwater, Sat vs. Park of Cottage Grove

7. White Bear Lake (8-2-2)
-The Bears made it look like they belonged in the top five with a very good showing against Edina, then turned around and coughed one up against Rochester Century. Three goals on eight shots in a game right after a big one generally screams “fluke,” so I’m not knocking them too much, but another result like this will certainly drop them. If they can avoid such debacles in the future, they have a pretty good shot of running the table in the regular season from here, with Cretin the only ranked team left on their calendar. They can effectively clinch the top seed in 4AA with a win over Stillwater this week.
This week: Tues vs. Stillwater, Thurs vs. Park of Cottage Grove, Sat at Woodbury

8. Duluth Marshall (10-3-1)
-The Hilltoppers took care of business against Maple Grove, and with much ugliness around them in the rankings, they’re sliding on up. Much like Cretin, the quality win list isn’t phenomenal (their best is probably over Brainerd), but they are winning when others aren’t. This week’s Cloquet game is significant for gauging 7AA.
This week: Tues at Cloquet, Sat at Champlin Park

9. Centennial (8-3-2)
-I was feeling pretty good about the Cougars’ top ten credentials after comfortable wins over Brainerd and Maple Grove, and then they went and laid an egg against Andover. That was their first loss to a lower-ranked team, and we’ll see where this sudden Andover buzzsaw goes from here. They stay this high largely on the strength of that early win over Elk River, so if the tables turn in the rematch, they’ll probably exit the top ten.
This week: Thurs vs. Anoka, Sat vs. #10 Elk River

10. Elk River (10-4)
-The Elks are showing serious improvement, particularly in the defensive end, as they gave up just one goal in wins over two quality conference opponents, Andover and Blaine. If they can do something in their Centennial rematch, they can firm up a top ten slot and start turning some heads here.
This week: Tues at Champlin Park, Sat at #9 Centennial

11. Moorhead (10-5)
-The Spuds held true to their early season script this past week: domination against 8AA completion as they rolled over St. Michael-Albertville, but little traction against quality teams elsewhere in the state, as they fell in overtime to Wayzata. Deeper, capable defensive teams are able to shut them down. A rematch with Brainerd this week will tell us if anyone has any prayer of beating them in the section.
This week: Thurs at #15 Brainerd, Sat vs. Breck

12. Wayzata (6-6-1)
-Trojans gonna be Trojans: Wayzata lost to St. Louis Park and then beat Moorhead. Ranking them with any sanity before February is a futile cause, it seems. On paper they’re better than their opponents this week, which means they’ll probably lose to both of them.
This week: Thurs at Hill-Murray, Sat at Delano

13. Andover (10-3)
-Add the Huskies to the list of incomprehensible teams so far: after a loss to Forest Lake and a fairly weak showing against Elk River, they turned around and blasted Cloquet and, even more impressively, Centennial. That allows them to make a significant jump, and well I have some reservations about that, it’s not like anyone else in here is making a great case for this spot. They can solidify their contender status with a good showing against Maple Grove this week.
This week: Thurs vs. Maple Grove

14. Eden Prairie (5-6-1)
-The Eagles had a very ugly week, with a shellacking at the hands of Lakeville South and a loss to Prior Lake that may prove costly come section seeding time. They still have a bunch of quality wins that keep them from going off the cliff, but they’ll need to show something, and soon. It doesn’t get any easier this week, with games against two of the big four and a mystery Cloquet team sandwiched in between.
This week: Tues at #3 St. Thomas Academy, Fri vs. Cloquet, Sat vs. #1 Duluth East

15. Brainerd (8-4)
-They’ve got a win over Wayzata and none of their losses are to bad teams, so the Warriors continue to lurk around here. The Moorhead rematch is their chance to make a statement, but they can’t sleep on a decent-looking St. Cloud team two days before that, either.
This week: Tues at St. Cloud, Thurs vs. #11 Moorhead

The Next Ten

Eastview (10-3)
-This Lightning squad is plugging along and collecting wins, admittedly against a fairly soft schedule. The Lakeville South game this week could bring some intrigue.

Hill-Murray (5-4-4)
-The Pioneers got a decent win over Benilde, but hardly one to make me reassess to my placement of them just on the verge of the top 15. An interesting week awaits, as they face enigmatic Wayzata and a Mahtomedi team that gave them one of those four ties.

Cloquet (9-5-1)
-The Jacks crashed and burned against Andover, which continues a hard to read run of games and drops them further amid the 7AA chase pack. The week ahead is an important one for attaining any level of consistency, with a big game against Marshall and a talented but struggling opponent in Eden Prairie.

St. Michael-Albertville (7-4)
-The Knights got blown out by Moorhead, which continues their struggles against higher-ranked competition. All their wins are over teams below them, and all their losses are to teams above them, which makes this blessedly simple. There isn’t a whole lot of middle ground in this schedule, and it goes back to the easier side this week, with Buffalo and St. Francis.

Chaska (7-5)
-I’m inclined to cut this team some slack given its rash of missing important players, and it still managed to be fairly competitive with Benilde. St. Louis Park this week will be interesting.

St. Louis Park (6-5-1)
-A win over Wayzata is another step in the right direction for the Orioles. Games with Chaska and Blake this week will say a lot more about them.

Lakeville South (7-4-1)
-After meandering through the wilderness for much of the past month, the Cougars came roaring out with a big win over Eden Prairie. We’ll see if they can build on that against two quality opponents, Eastview and Holy Family, this coming week.

Blaine (3-5-3)
-Lost to Anoka, which gives them a second ugly result. They’ve had their flashes in quality ties, but this team has only one remotely quality win (over fading Maple Grove) and hasn’t shown a whole lot of burst. That record probably isn’t getting any better this week, with games against Minnetonka and Edina.

Lakeville North (5-6-1)
-Took care of Farmington in their lone game. Like Blaine, they’ve shown flashes of quality against higher-ranked teams, but also have had their share of clunkers. Another one-game week awaits, with Rosemount looking to make a statement here.

Rosemount (10-2)
-I’ll reward the Irish’s winning run and nudge them into the top 25; they’ve done reasonably well against teams hovering in this tier. The week ahead, which features Eagan (who just miss here) and Lakeville North, could lend some clarity to the mess of South Suburban teams hovering in here.
Karl, puts the stamp of approval on section 7AA teams trending up at this point of the season. Shaping up to be another exciting section 7AA season! I don't think much else needs to be stated.

goldy313
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Post by goldy313 » Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:46 pm

3 win Blaine has to move up, holding on to lose by 9 to a team East just beat is gutsy. Those 3 wins look better and better each day.

Centennial ties Anoka, another win for Blaine

kniven
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Post by kniven » Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:05 pm

goldy313 wrote:3 win Blaine has to move up, holding on to lose by 9 to a team East just beat is gutsy. Those 3 wins look better and better each day.

Centennial ties Anoka, another win for Blaine
This year is kind of nutty! A large number of squads all over the map to this point in the season. What does it take for young kids to right the ship on so many squads this year.

goldy313
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Post by goldy313 » Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:23 pm

I don't know if it is that nutty or just some teams have a name on the front if the jersey and an assumption is made on whether they are good or not. My opinion....the South Suburban is the best conference.....but they are being punished because no SSC teams are in 7AA.

I agree with stang on the A rankings thread; at some point you have reward teams for winning instead of rewarding them because of the name on the jersey. Tartan, Irondale Rosemount, Rochester Century, Eastview, Brainerd, etc. are winning yet a whole bunch of sub .500 teams with losses to unranked teams are ranked lower. Maybe those aforementioned teams have bad losses and deserve to be dropped but cross that bridge then. Don't keep propping up losing teams becsuse they tied Duluth East or played a close game here or there but nearly get put in running time by Lakeville South.

Traxler
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Post by Traxler » Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:32 am

goldy313 wrote:I don't know if it is that nutty or just some teams have a name on the front if the jersey and an assumption is made on whether they are good or not. My opinion....the South Suburban is the best conference.....but they are being punished because no SSC teams are in 7AA.

I agree with stang on the A rankings thread; at some point you have reward teams for winning instead of rewarding them because of the name on the jersey. Tartan, Irondale Rosemount, Rochester Century, Eastview, Brainerd, etc. are winning yet a whole bunch of sub .500 teams with losses to unranked teams are ranked lower. Maybe those aforementioned teams have bad losses and deserve to be dropped but cross that bridge then. Don't keep propping up losing teams becsuse they tied Duluth East or played a close game here or there but nearly get put in running time by Lakeville South.
Just because you're winning doesn't mean you deserve to be higher in the rankings. Let's take Rosemount as an example. We don't really know how good they are since they don't have many opponents in common with those ranked higher than them. It's like UCF in college football this year. They kept winning, but no one really knew if they could beat any real competition until they played them in a bowl game. Maybe Rosemount is the UCF of high school hockey, and we won't really find out how good they are until sections when they take down STA.

GopherHockey
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Post by GopherHockey » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:13 am

goldy313 wrote:I don't know if it is that nutty or just some teams have a name on the front if the jersey and an assumption is made on whether they are good or not. My opinion....the South Suburban is the best conference.....but they are being punished because no SSC teams are in 7AA.

I agree with stang on the A rankings thread; at some point you have reward teams for winning instead of rewarding them because of the name on the jersey. Tartan, Irondale Rosemount, Rochester Century, Eastview, Brainerd, etc. are winning yet a whole bunch of sub .500 teams with losses to unranked teams are ranked lower. Maybe those aforementioned teams have bad losses and deserve to be dropped but cross that bridge then. Don't keep propping up losing teams becsuse they tied Duluth East or played a close game here or there but nearly get put in running time by Lakeville South.
You realize these rankings don’t mean a whole hell of a lot? Create your own rankings and put your team wherever you want to see them.

elliott70
Posts: 13590
Joined: Thu Jan 08, 2004 3:47 pm
Location: Bemidji

Post by elliott70 » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:23 am

GopherHockey wrote:
goldy313 wrote:I don't know if it is that nutty or just some teams have a name on the front if the jersey and an assumption is made on whether they are good or not. My opinion....the South Suburban is the best conference.....but they are being punished because no SSC teams are in 7AA.

I agree with stang on the A rankings thread; at some point you have reward teams for winning instead of rewarding them because of the name on the jersey. Tartan, Irondale Rosemount, Rochester Century, Eastview, Brainerd, etc. are winning yet a whole bunch of sub .500 teams with losses to unranked teams are ranked lower. Maybe those aforementioned teams have bad losses and deserve to be dropped but cross that bridge then. Don't keep propping up losing teams becsuse they tied Duluth East or played a close game here or there but nearly get put in running time by Lakeville South.
You realize these rankings don’t mean a whole hell of a lot? Create your own rankings and put your team wherever you want to see them.

1 Bemidji
2 Intl Falls
3 Hermantown
4 Hill
5 Edina
6 Roseau
7 Bagley
8 Grand Rapids
9 CEC
10 Moorhead
11 Rochester Century
12 Luverne
98 Erskine
99 Brainerd
(did not want Syd, Bader, Slappy and the Wild Bunch to be left out)

O-townClown
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Location: Typical homeboy from the O-Town

Post by O-townClown » Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:16 am

elliott70 wrote: 1 Bemidji
2 Intl Falls
3 Hermantown
4 Hill
5 Edina
6 Roseau
7 Bagley
8 Grand Rapids
9 CEC
10 Moorhead
11 Rochester Century
12 Luverne
98 Erskine
99 Brainerd
No respect for Brainerd. I'm surprised there's that much love for Bagley and Hermantown, for many, occupies a villain's role like Edina (the Yankees of Minnesota hockey) or Hill-Murray (evil recruiters on the East Side).

You are definitely selling Minnetonka short. Even with just one farmer on the team they would school Luverne any day of the week. Except Sunday.
Be kind. Rewind.

elliott70
Posts: 13590
Joined: Thu Jan 08, 2004 3:47 pm
Location: Bemidji

Post by elliott70 » Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:48 am

O-townClown wrote:
elliott70 wrote: 1 Bemidji
2 Intl Falls
3 Hermantown
4 Hill
5 Edina
6 Roseau
7 Bagley
8 Grand Rapids
9 CEC
10 Moorhead
11 Rochester Century
12 Luverne
98 Erskine
99 Brainerd
No respect for Brainerd. I'm surprised there's that much love for Bagley and Hermantown, for many, occupies a villain's role like Edina (the Yankees of Minnesota hockey) or Hill-Murray (evil recruiters on the East Side).

You are definitely selling Minnetonka short. Even with just one farmer on the team they would school Luverne any day of the week. Except Sunday.
I love the Yankees.

Syd Barrett
Posts: 651
Joined: Thu Nov 16, 2006 7:37 pm

Post by Syd Barrett » Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:52 pm

elliott70 wrote:
GopherHockey wrote:
goldy313 wrote:I don't know if it is that nutty or just some teams have a name on the front if the jersey and an assumption is made on whether they are good or not. My opinion....the South Suburban is the best conference.....but they are being punished because no SSC teams are in 7AA.

I agree with stang on the A rankings thread; at some point you have reward teams for winning instead of rewarding them because of the name on the jersey. Tartan, Irondale Rosemount, Rochester Century, Eastview, Brainerd, etc. are winning yet a whole bunch of sub .500 teams with losses to unranked teams are ranked lower. Maybe those aforementioned teams have bad losses and deserve to be dropped but cross that bridge then. Don't keep propping up losing teams becsuse they tied Duluth East or played a close game here or there but nearly get put in running time by Lakeville South.
You realize these rankings don’t mean a whole hell of a lot? Create your own rankings and put your team wherever you want to see them.

1 Bemidji
2 Intl Falls
3 Hermantown
4 Hill
5 Edina
6 Roseau
7 Bagley
8 Grand Rapids
9 CEC
10 Moorhead
11 Rochester Century
12 Luverne
98 Erskine
99 Brainerd
(did not want Syd, Bader, Slappy and the Wild Bunch to be left out)
Elliott; Did you purposely rate Erskine ahead of Brainerd to keep Slappy Happy [-X

elliott70
Posts: 13590
Joined: Thu Jan 08, 2004 3:47 pm
Location: Bemidji

Post by elliott70 » Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:15 pm

Syd Barrett wrote:
elliott70 wrote:
GopherHockey wrote:
goldy313 wrote:I don't know if it is that nutty or just some teams have a name on the front if the jersey and an assumption is made on whether they are good or not. My opinion....the South Suburban is the best conference.....but they are being punished because no SSC teams are in 7AA.

I agree with stang on the A rankings thread; at some point you have reward teams for winning instead of rewarding them because of the name on the jersey. Tartan, Irondale Rosemount, Rochester Century, Eastview, Brainerd, etc. are winning yet a whole bunch of sub .500 teams with losses to unranked teams are ranked lower. Maybe those aforementioned teams have bad losses and deserve to be dropped but cross that bridge then. Don't keep propping up losing teams becsuse they tied Duluth East or played a close game here or there but nearly get put in running time by Lakeville South.
You realize these rankings don’t mean a whole hell of a lot? Create your own rankings and put your team wherever you want to see them.

1 Bemidji
2 Intl Falls
3 Hermantown
4 Hill
5 Edina
6 Roseau
7 Bagley
8 Grand Rapids
9 CEC
10 Moorhead
11 Rochester Century
12 Luverne
98 Erskine
99 Brainerd
(did not want Syd, Bader, Slappy and the Wild Bunch to be left out)
Elliott; Did you purposely rate Erskine ahead of Brainerd to keep Slappy Happy [-X
Better Slappy happy than Bader.

Stang5280
Posts: 1176
Joined: Wed Jun 28, 2017 1:12 pm

Post by Stang5280 » Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:33 pm

Traxler wrote:Just because you're winning doesn't mean you deserve to be higher in the rankings. Let's take Rosemount as an example. We don't really know how good they are since they don't have many opponents in common with those ranked higher than them. It's like UCF in college football this year. They kept winning, but no one really knew if they could beat any real competition until they played them in a bowl game. Maybe Rosemount is the UCF of high school hockey, and we won't really find out how good they are until sections when they take down STA.
The UCF comparison falls flat in certain respects. If you look back at the initial college football playoff rankings (about two-thirds through the season), UCF was ranked 18th, and slowly rose to 12th by the time of the final rankings. Their AP poll rankings followed a similar trend over the same period, rising from 15th to 10th. The Knights finished 6th in the final AP poll after defeating Auburn.

The point is that “those in the know” recognized that UCF was a good team well before the end of the season, despite the weaker level of competition. That is one of the inherent problems in relying heavily on SOS - a team can only play the opponents on their schedule, for better or worse. Bringing this back to high school hockey, is there any harm in throwing a bone toward teams that are consistently winning, even against weaker competition, rather than rewarding traditionally strong programs even after we have realized they are having a mediocre (or worse) season? Sure, we don’t know that a team like Rosemount could beat a CEC or Hill Murray, but we also can’t rule out the possibility, either.

karl(east)
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Contact:

Post by karl(east) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:11 pm

Stang5280 wrote:
Traxler wrote:Just because you're winning doesn't mean you deserve to be higher in the rankings. Let's take Rosemount as an example. We don't really know how good they are since they don't have many opponents in common with those ranked higher than them. It's like UCF in college football this year. They kept winning, but no one really knew if they could beat any real competition until they played them in a bowl game. Maybe Rosemount is the UCF of high school hockey, and we won't really find out how good they are until sections when they take down STA.
The UCF comparison falls flat in certain respects. If you look back at the initial college football playoff rankings (about two-thirds through the season), UCF was ranked 18th, and slowly rose to 12th by the time of the final rankings. Their AP poll rankings followed a similar trend over the same period, rising from 15th to 10th. The Knights finished 6th in the final AP poll after defeating Auburn.

The point is that “those in the know” recognized that UCF was a good team well before the end of the season, despite the weaker level of competition. That is one of the inherent problems in relying heavily on SOS - a team can only play the opponents on their schedule, for better or worse. Bringing this back to high school hockey, is there any harm in throwing a bone toward teams that are consistently winning, even against weaker competition, rather than rewarding traditionally strong programs even after we have realized they are having a mediocre (or worse) season? Sure, we don’t know that a team like Rosemount could beat a CEC or Hill Murray, but we also can’t rule out the possibility, either.
I won't deny my rankings tend to be fairly conservative in that I don't move teams around much unless they give me good reasons to do so, and winning a lot with few quality wins doesn't really do that for me. Historically, I've found this is safer and saner than launching a team upward on the strength of some good wins only to drop them all the way back down again when they finally face good competition and get killed. The downside is that I can be slow to pick up on the ones that are legit. Speaking to Rosemount specifically, they did get a pretty good win over Eagan earlier this week, so should be on the way up, and will be even further up if they beat North tomorrow. The difference between Rosemount and some of the other non-traditional powers that have already cracked the top 15 (Andover, Brainerd) is that those two have some legitimate good wins.

The other thing that can take a while to flush out are teams that I had ranked highly in the preseason that do log a few quality results. (As Blaine has, not only vs. East but also the Hill and EP ties...I realize they're both down, but that has also taken some time to become obvious, and both have had flashes too.)

I also think one can read plenty into results, even when a team is playing a poor schedule. If Rosemount were blowing out Eastview, Lakeville South, and Eagan, I'd really be paying attention. As it is, they lost 5-1 to Eastview (though that was early) and have one-goal wins over the other two, and their bodies of work do not put them in the top 20. On the flip side, a team can have a bad record, but if they're losing narrowly to good teams, they stay high because we know they don't need that many things to go right to beat a top-flight team.

All ranking attempts are an attempt to make up for a lack of information; no one can watch every game. (Well, I guess that's at least plausible with video now, but come on; and even if we could, people don't always interpret games the same ways.) Computerized algorithms solve this by cutting out a lot of stuff and focusing just on wins/losses and goals for/against. It has the benefit of cleanliness, but sacrifices helpful explanations like injuries or suspensions, etc., and there are a lot of human decisions on what to value or not value that go into them. The LPH poll uses many different sets of eyes and tries to mash that all together into something coherent. I just try to rely on pre-existing knowledge and adjust, both as I watch and collect others' accounts on games and follow things like PS2.

tl;dr I have a system that usually works and I'm sticking with it, much to goldy's delight. :lol:

blueblood
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HHF

Post by blueblood » Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:38 pm

HHF: your wording In last post iseems to infer Blaine beat East, which it didn’t do.
Play Like a Champion Today

goldy313
Posts: 3459
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2002 11:56 am

Post by goldy313 » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:06 pm

Blaine has 3 wins; Spring Lake Park, Robbinsdale, and Maple Grove. Those are quality wins? Irondale beat the first two and hasn't played Maple Grove yet.....and they beat Blaine!

Blaine got beat by 9, EP just about had running time put on them by an unranked South team. I don't think you should worry so much about putting a team winning games in the bottom of your rankings and "getting killed" because your traditional teams below .500 in the rankings are already "getting killed".

Everyone is entitled to have a bad game, WBL lost to Century and you let that slide, what would be so wrong with letting Rosemount, Tartan, or Irondale losing by 3 or 4 to a top 10 team go?

I like your rankings but as I said, at some point you actually have to win some games.....no matter the competition.

karl(east)
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Post by karl(east) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:42 pm

goldy313 wrote:Blaine has 3 wins; Spring Lake Park, Robbinsdale, and Maple Grove. Those are quality wins? Irondale beat the first two and hasn't played Maple Grove yet.....and they beat Blaine!

Blaine got beat by 9, EP just about had running time put on them by an unranked South team. I don't think you should worry so much about putting a team winning games in the bottom of your rankings and "getting killed" because your traditional teams below .500 in the rankings are already "getting killed".

Everyone is entitled to have a bad game, WBL lost to Century and you let that slide, what would be so wrong with letting Rosemount, Tartan, or Irondale losing by 3 or 4 to a top 10 team go?

I like your rankings but as I said, at some point you actually have to win some games.....no matter the competition.
I don't disagree. Blaine, assuming they get blasted by Edina tomorrow, is probably gone from the land of the ranked. (Them and the rest of 5AA while we're at it.) I'm not going to defend them anymore, and despite the tie they sure didn't pass the eye test against East (WBL, and to a lesser extent Cloquet, did). They got some benefit of the doubt due to ties and a solid group of incoming bantams, but clearly that hasn't translated at the HS level.

I will defend Eden Prairie some, even though I've spent my evening watching and mostly critiquing them. EP's result against South was obviously bad, as was the Prior Lake loss. But, they do have a win over Brainerd (who's looking like a borderline top 10 team after the Moorhead win) and Hermantown, who's tops in my book in Class A. Their other losses are to good teams, and they have other passable results against bubble teams (tie vs. Hill, win over STMA). They have two very narrow losses to St. Thomas, who no one disputes is a top 5 team in the state. Unless they beat East tomorrow they're probably not a top 15 team anymore after tonight, but they're probably still top 20.

I've covered Rosemount already, but based on the others you mentioned, it really comes down to the whole body of work. Tartan's best win is over Anoka, plus two losses to no one near a two-class ranking, PS2#43...nah. Irondale? Best wins are Blaine and Rochester Century, losses to Mounds View, Tartan, and something named New Richmond, plus a tie to North St. Paul, PS2 #56...nah.

A useful exercise, especially when dealing with a team that seems inconsistent, is to write off a team's best and worst performances to see how things look, and then their second-best and second-worst performances, and so on...sooner or later, things tend to settle in to the mean.

WestMetro
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Post by WestMetro » Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:18 pm

I’ve been trying to schedule to make sure see each of top 20 in person at least once against quality opponent

But Karl keeps moving teams in and out of top 20 ! No fair! 🤷‍♂️

Karl , any chance you can take my schedule into account as a legitimate ranking factor ? Or speak to Mrs West Metro so I can go to more games ? 😀

Looks like I’ll be taking a long road trip up Hansen Blvd to Andover Arena for first time since Maddie Rooney era

kniven
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Location: Duluth area

Post by kniven » Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:08 pm

Metro does have some valid points there Karl...

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