AA Rankings for 12/2/18

[karl(east)]

Welcome to the first set of in-season rankings. As usual, the goal here is to be responsive while also not overreacting or being beholden to transitive logic. Your rankings:

1. Minnetonka (3-0)
-One thing, at least, is obvious three games in: the Skippers deserve to remain #1 until someone can knock them off. They’re using their depth to control games, and have given up just two goals against respectable competition. Neither of their opponents this week is likely to challenge them.
This week: Thurs at St. Louis Park, Sat vs. Duluth Marshall

2. Duluth East (2-0)
-Neither win was particularly flashy, but the Hounds beat White Bear Lake after an ugly start and slipped past Wayzata on the road. Everyone behind them also had a result that was either comparable or worse, though, which I think just goes to show that the top few teams (with the possible exception of the Skippers?) just aren’t as far ahead of the field as they were a season ago. A monster matchup with Andover awaits.
This week: Thurs vs. Bemidji, Sat at #3 Andover

3. Andover (3-0)
-The Huskies did need a major penalty in overtime to escape against Moorhead, but with the Spuds cleaning up in 8AA action that may not raise the questions I thought it did at the time. They then steamrolled a couple of Northwest Suburban opponents. Respectable Champlin Park is up first this coming week, but all eyes are on Saturday, when the Huskies will host what is likely their biggest regular season home game in program history. They have never beaten Duluth East.
This week: Thurs at Champlin Park, Sat vs. #2 Duluth East

4. Edina (3-0-1)
-The Hornets couldn’t put away Maple Grove, again raising the questions I had about their scoring depth and goaltending coming into the season. There’s no doubting the talent on defense, though this team just won’t be as dominant as the Hornets were a year ago. As usual, they now have a bye week to prep for the Holiday Classic.
This week: Idle

5. Eden Prairie (1-0)
-A controlling performance in their opener against Cretin nudges the Eagles up a few spots. Their young talents look like they’ll jump right in at the high school level, and when combined with an experienced core, they’re looking like a deep team with no obvious weaknesses. They have a big week ahead, as they face the team immediately below them before a swing northward.
This week: Tues at #6 St. Thomas Academy, Fri at Hermantown, Sat at Brainerd

6. St. Thomas Academy (3-1)
-The Cadets were down a few players in the Opener, so their performance comes with an asterisk, though I expect they still would have lost to Minnetonka and beaten Cloquet, even with a full lineup. They can climb into the top five with a win over Eden Prairie this week.
This week: Tues vs. #5 Eden Prairie, Sat at Holy Family

7. Maple Grove (3-0-1)
-Perhaps no team did more to raise its stock in the early going than the Crimson, who rolled past respectable Wayzata and notched a tie with Edina. The youth infusion seems to be paying immediate dividends, and they have a nice core of talent that can compete with other top teams. The week ahead is a fairly soft one as they gear up for their first showdown with Blaine.
This week: Thurs vs. Armstrong/Cooper, Sat at Anoka

8. Cretin-Derham Hall (0-1)
-The Raiders’ high-flying offense was held in check by Eden Prairie in their home opener; Matt Gleason was predictably all over the place, but they’ll need to show more out of their lower lines to contend for a spot in the top five. I’m curious to see how they match up with a tough-looking White Bear team.
This week: Thurs at Woodbury, Sat vs. #12 White Bear Lake

9. Hill-Murray (1-0)
-Didn’t awe anyone with their performance over Burnsville, but it’s one game and they won, so it’s not going to hurt their standing here. A busy week includes a Class A power and their first real AA test against Wayzata.
This week: Tues at Mahtomedi, Thurs at Simley, Sat at #11 Wayzata

10. Moorhead (2-1)
-The Spuds are an early climber, as they gave Andover a good run and collected two four-goal wins against what might be the second- and third-best teams in 8AA. They continue their run of section games this week.
This week: Tues vs. Bemidji

11. Wayzata (2-2)
-The Trojans were true to form in the early going, as wins over Holy Family and Hermantown offset losses to Maple Grove and Duluth East. They’ve shown they can be competitive with anyone and will be a tough out, as usual. Hill-Murray is up next.
This week: Sat vs. #9 Hill-Murray

12. White Bear Lake (3-1)
-The Bears showed some toughness on their road trip north by playing Duluth East well and knocking off Cloquet. With decent depth and good physicality, they could be a problematic playoff opponent if they can build on this. I’m pushing them to the front of the ugly jumble between spots 12-18 based on their combined performance against quality competition. A big conference battle with Cretin looms on Saturday.
This week: Thurs vs. Forest Lake, Sat at #8 Cretin-Derham Hall

13. Lakeville North (1-1)
-The Panthers put together a good showing in the Opener with a win over Cloquet and a passable performance against Minnetonka despite being down some of their better players. A pair of middling South Suburban teams now awaits them.
This week: Tues vs. Prior Lake, Sat vs. Eastview

14. Chaska (3-1)
-It’s been an adventurous ride for the Hawks in the early going. They clearly have some offensive firepower, with at least four goals in each game, and the star talent is undeniable, even with some injuries. But they also coughed up goals at a worrisome rate, most glaringly in the stunner of a loss to Eveleth. They did bounce back to shut out Cloquet, which is a step in the right direction, but we’ll await more results to back that up. The Rosemount game this week will be very helpful in sorting out the top 15 bubble here.
This week: Thurs at Rosemount, Sat vs. Sartell

15. Blake (3-1)
-With a win over Holy Family and a good showing against Chaska, the Bears are looking like they’re here to contend this season. The win over the Fire probably boosts their section standing as well. Just one game this week.
This week: Tues at Holy Angels.

The Next Ten

Blaine (2-0)
-All systems go so far for the Bengals, and they lead off a group of three teams that I think could easily be ranked, but has yet to accumulate anything resembling a quality win, whereas the teams that are in the bottom few in the top 15 have done so. STMA provides their first semi-test this week, and after that the schedule gets noticeably tougher.

Rosemount (1-0)
-Narrowly escape Bloomington Jefferson, which isn’t an ideal start, but they got the win; perhaps undeservedly, they therefore drop to accommodate teams above them that did things to improve their standing. Chaska headlines a three-game week ahead that also includes section games with Eastview and Burnsville.

Eagan (2-0)
-A convincing opening win over respectable Prior Lake should grab the Wildcats some attention, and they plastered Park as well. A meeting with Cloquet this week gives them a chance to further prove their worth.

Cloquet (0-4)
-It’s a rough opening record for the Lumberjacks, though they were competitive in all four losses to quality teams. The pieces are there to be better, but will they come together? Saturday’s game with Eagan could be telling as to which tier of teams should be their home.

Holy Family (0-3)
-The Fire joins the Lumberjacks in the winless-against-tough-competition pack. They’ll have another chance against a top-end team this week against St. Thomas.

Stillwater (0-0)
-The Ponies get under way against Gentry Academy and Mounds View this week.

Lakeville South (0-1)
-A narrow opening loss to Hermantown neither helps nor hurts the Cougars’ standing. Shakopee and Farmington are up next.

Brainerd (1-1)
-Struggled to hang with Moorhead, which does not bode well for their 8AA chances, but bounced back by hanging nine goals on Bemidji. A busy week ahead includes visits from Benilde and another serious test versus Eden Prairie.

Prior Lake (2-1)
-Beating teams they should beat, but lost by four to Eagan. Lakeville North is their lone opponent this coming week.

Buffalo (1-1)
-Eh, why not? They handled Hopkins without any trouble and stuck around with Moorhead for a while. St. Cloud and Delano are up this week.

[elliott70]

By March Moorhead will be right there at the top!

[WestMetro]

Well done! Excellent reasoning as usual!

[kniven]

Interesting. I didn’t realize Holy Family was 0-3. Makes me feel better about my Lumberjacks. Bloomington Jefferson onnFriday. We always seem to struggle big-time when we play there. I know zero about Eagan except for they are a huge metro high school. Then .....Duluth East at the Heritage Center on Thursday. We beat em there last year, but I honestly think we had a better squad last year versus this year. But...when the Hounds and Lumberjacks meet, my hair is literally on fire the entire time. “Good things” for CEC for sure. I always wish the very best for the kiddos of Cloquet, Esko, and Carlton

[elliott70]

Karl
when will you start doing the sections?

[Sparlimb]

Karl
when will you start doing the sections?

Calm down Elliot. Sections aren't for 3 more months.

[karl(east)]

Karl
when will you start doing the sections?

Calm down Elliot. Sections aren't for 3 more months.

First section rankings will be 12/16, and every other week thereafter until the end of the season. Not enough changes to do it weekly and I want a few more results to work with before starting, which is why I wait a few weeks to do it.

[TheNightman]

Eagan is the biggest surprise for me so far, will be interesting to see how they progress.

[gopherpuck516]

Eagan is the biggest surprise for me so far, will be interesting to see how they progress.

They have a really strong first line, not sure about depth after that. But that top line could all be 50 point scorers this year.

[kniven]

Eagan is the biggest surprise for me so far, will be interesting to see how they progress.

They have a really strong first line, not sure about depth after that. But that top line could all be 50 point scorers this year.

Yikes. And then there is Bloomington Jefferson at home where CEC struggles. 0-6 to start the season is very possible. I think my purple finish the regular season 10-15. But this 10-15 team will be battle tested for a nice playoff run to the section final game.

[HappyHockeyFan]

Rosemount with a nice upset win over Chaska tonight, 5-2.

[karl(east)]

Rosemount with a nice upset win over Chaska tonight, 5-2.

The Irish scrape by Jefferson and Eastview by a goal each, but now they roll past Chaska. The Hawks, meanwhile, are doing a very good job of not making any sense.

Let the ranking fun begin!

[blueblood]

Rosemount over Chaska is not an upset. Both teams with d-1 talent and ranked in the 10 to 15 range which is always in flux at this point of the season

[GoBigorGoHome]

Rosemount over Chaska is not an upset. Both teams with d-1 talent and ranked in the 10 to 15 range which is always in flux at this point of the season

Makes you wonder how good Rosemount would be, if they hadn't lost the four players to Lakeville North... Although, so far Rosemount seems to have gotten the better end of that deal.

[HappyHockeyFan]

Rosemount will only be getting better with the talent coming up at Bantam AA. The win over Chaska would still be considered an upset based on the LPH rankings and Chaska outweighs Rosemount in D1 recruits I believe 3-1.

[WarmUpTheBus]

Rosemount will only be getting better with the talent coming up at Bantam AA. The win over Chaska would still be considered an upset based on the LPH rankings and Chaska outweighs Rosemount in D1 recruits I believe 3-1.

I think Chaska has 4 D1 recruits. Koster (U of M). Pitlick (U of M), Warnert (UNO) and Lavelle (UW)

[WestMetro]

Correct Warm Up

It’s beyond me why snugs is experimenting with a third goalie . When he has a very steady playoff experienced senior goalie who just shutout CEC , and another with a super Bantam career who by most accounts is a top 10 American in his age class

[ryguyMN]

Chaska's slow start really surprises me considering the talent on the roster. Watching an unstable streaming feed from CHBN last night, I thought the wind got knocked out of Chaska's sails against Rosemount once Fletcher was kicked out for spearing in the first period. It's still early yet and time for them to turn things around.

[goldy313]

Chaska underachieving......shocker.....