AA Rankings for 12/9/18

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AA Rankings for 12/9/18

Post by karl(east) » Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:51 am

If early returns are any hint, this season will be messier than usual. The separation between teams just is not large. But, here we go:

1. Minnetonka (5-0)
-Duluth Marshall gave the Skippers a surprisingly good run, which goes to show just how convoluted this season is going to be. That result was the first thing resembling a wrench in an otherwise dominant start, but they got the win, and have yet to allow more than a single goal in a game. Things get a little more difficult this week, though the bigger stuff will come after Christmas.
This week: Thurs at Blake, Sat vs. #10 Moorhead

2. Andover (5-0)
-We have good clarity for #2 now, too: the Huskies picked up the big win they needed over Duluth East, as they finished off their section rival and to stake an early claim to the top spot in 7AA. Now they’re off and running into Northwest Suburban play, which on paper shouldn’t pose a challenge this week.
This week: Tues vs. Anoka

3. Duluth East (3-1)
-An overtime loss on the road in December is hardly cause for concern for the Hounds; their depth can match anyone’s, but they’re in need of a little more offensive production from their big guns. The wins over White Bear and Wayzata are also aging well given the success of those teams so far. Their game this week is as mysterious a matchup with an archrival as a game can be.
This week: Thurs vs. Cloquet

4. Edina (3-0-1)
-Had their usual week of rest ahead of the Holiday Classic. The 7AA field in the round robin is down this year, so they should roll the first two nights, but the Saturday showdown with Eden Prairie is a huge one.
This week: Edina Holiday Classic—Thurs vs. Grand Rapids, Fri vs. Elk River, Sat vs. #8 Eden Prairie

5. Maple Grove (5-0-1)
-The Crimson collected comfortable wins against middling conference competition, and with an undefeated record and a tie to the team immediately above them, they’re sliding on up. Just one game this week, but it’s a huge one, as it’s the first of two meetings between the two 5AA frontrunners.
This week: Sat at #15 Blaine

6. St. Thomas Academy (4-1-1)
-The Cadets pulled out a tie against Eden Prairie and a narrow win over Holy Family. It wasn’t exactly an explosive week offensively, but they’re not alone among highly ranked teams who control games but not score much. Next up: a young Benilde team fresh off a big win.
This week: Tues vs. Benilde-St. Margaret’s

7. White Bear Lake (5-1)
-Things are coming together nicely for the Bears, who edged Cretin in overtime to continue their strong start to the season. On paper they should roll through their next few conference games before the all-important clash with Hill, but these sorts of games have tripped up past Bears teams.
This week: Thurs vs. Mounds View, Sat at East Ridge

8. Eden Prairie (2-1-1)
-This week ran the gamut for the Eagles. They looked strong against St. Thomas but came away only with a tie, and also beat Brainerd. The loss to Hermantown, while not horrible, is also probably not something a top-5 contender should be doing, especially with the Hawks going down to Benilde on Saturday. With the young talent they’ve added to the mix, they have the potential for a big season. The focal point of their Holiday Classic will, of course, be Saturday night against Edina.
This week: Edina Holiday Classic—Thurs vs. Elk River, Fri vs. Grand Rapids, Sat vs. #4 Edina

9. Wayzata (3-2)
-The Trojans continue to plug along with respectable showings after a 3-1 win over Hill. While this group doesn’t have many household names, they do appear to be in form already, instead of struggling to find that defensive groove as they have at times. A juicy section battle looms on Saturday.
This week: Thurs at St. Louis Park, Sat at #11 Cretin-Derham Hall

10. Moorhead (3-1)
-The Spuds handled Bemidji in their lone game this past week. They’ll put on the miles this week as they wrap up a run of section games with a visit to Roseau and head south for a couple of metro tests, including the top-ranked Skippers.
This week: Tues at Roseau, Fri at Benilde, Sat at #1 Minnetonka

11. Cretin-Derham Hall (1-2)
-The Raiders are now 0-for-2 against ranked competition following an overtime loss to conference foe White Bear, and could really use a healthy Nick Davidson. They’ll continue their routine of facing one good team a week when they visit Wayzata for a rematch of last year’s tight semifinal that will again have big seeding implications.
This week: Thurs vs. Forest Lake, Sat at #9 Wayzata

12. Hill-Murray (3-1)
-The Pioneers have been consistently a little short of the top teams so far, as they needed to mount a big comeback to get past Mahtomedi and were held in check by Wayzata. They should collect a couple of conference wins this week.
This week: Thurs vs. South St. Paul, Sat at Henry Sibley

13. Lakeville North (3-1)
-The Panthers methodically took care of Prior Lake and Eastview, which qualifies as a successful week in the parity-filled South Suburban Conference. Burnsville has been thorny so far, so that game could be of some interest on Tuesday.
This week: Tues at Burnsville, Sat vs. Apple Valley

14. Rosemount (4-0)
-The Irish got a solid victory over Chaska, though that seems to be all the rage these days. That was their only non-one-goal victory so far, but as with North, they’re taking care of things in the South Suburban. More respectable conference competition is up this week.
This week: Tues vs. Prior Lake, Sat at Lakeville South

15. Blaine (4-0)
-The Bengals had an adventure against STMA, but pulled it out to stay unbeaten. Now they get into some bigger names on the schedule, and while longtime rival Centennial is not the threat it has been, that Saturday contest with Maple Grove will make or break their early ranking.
This week: Thurs vs. Centennial, Sat vs. #5 Maple Grove

The Next Ten

Benilde-St. Margaret’s (4-1)
-The Red Knights are taking steps in the right direction following a win over Brainerd and an impressive showing against Hermantown. They’ll have a chance to climb higher with a positive result against either of their two opponents this week, St. Thomas and Moorhead.

Blake (2-1)
-Took care of business against Holy Angels, though the loss to Chaska isn’t exactly helping their standing right now. They’ve got #1 this week, and an interesting one with Greenway after that.

Lakeville South (2-1)
-Beat a couple of teams they should beat this past week. Rosemount offers up the next test on Saturday.

Stillwater (2-0)
-No complaints for the Ponies in the early going. It should be continued easier pickings with Park and Roseville up next.

Brainerd (2-3)
-The Warriors didn’t have a stellar showing against Eden Prairie or Benilde, but I’ll keep them in the 2-spot in 8AA until someone else makes a play for it. They have the coming week off.

Burnsville (1-3)
-The record isn’t great, but the Blaze was competitive against Hill and Rosemount, and got a win over Eagan, which is another team in this general zone. Lakeville North offers them another chance to prove themselves this week.

Holy Family (1-4)
-Keeping it competitive against the likes of Wayzata and St. Thomas keeps the Fire on the list, but winning a few games really would help things. Playing Delano this week will probably give them one.

Eagan (2-2)
-Not a great week for the Wildcats, who lost to Burnsville and previously winless Cloquet. We’ll see if they rebound against Eastview and Farmington.

Bloomington Jefferson (3-1)
-A narrow loss to Rosemount and a win over Cloquet gets the Jags back into the picture. If they’re legit, they could collect a few more wins over Park and Eastview this week.

St. Michael-Albertville (3-1)
-This is the part where I just shrug and toss out some names, but the Knights gave Blaine a good run and are otherwise undefeated, even if it’s been an adventure at times.

WestMetro
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Re: AA Rankings for 12/9/18

Post by WestMetro » Sun Dec 09, 2018 9:45 am

Excellent work as usual.

I will be very interested in Saturday MG vs BL game at Fogarty. My gut feel is there are not 10 ranks difference between the two teams.

Trivia question. When is last time two preseason top 10 teams were out of the top 25 by Week 4?

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Re: AA Rankings for 12/9/18

Post by MWS coach » Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:36 am

Always a great read I look forward to on Sunday morning, one clarification.

Andover does not play Elk River on Saturday, they play Tuesday the 18th.

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Re: AA Rankings for 12/9/18

Post by elliott70 » Sun Dec 09, 2018 7:14 pm

I am thinking Edina at 2

TheNightman
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Re: AA Rankings for 12/9/18

Post by TheNightman » Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:27 pm

elliott70 wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 7:14 pm
I am thinking Edina at 2
Agree, I'd have them above East for sure.

hockey59
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Re: AA Rankings for 12/9/18

Post by hockey59 » Sun Dec 09, 2018 9:31 pm

TheNightman wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:27 pm
elliott70 wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 7:14 pm
I am thinking Edina at 2
Agree, I'd have them above East for sure.
Why? Edina was tied by MG (and lost the shootout). Based on that result alone, they belong behind Tonka & Andover, and arguably DE too ☝️

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Re: AA Rankings for 12/9/18

Post by CakeScout17 » Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:30 pm

Seen all 5 of 'top 5 play' this early season...
I would put FLIP Edina & MG! Not only based on logic but the basic eye test, whereas three observations are clear (IMHO);

1. I simply do not see aggressive checking in all zones, all game. That relentless pursuit & grit is not there...yet. Mtka, Andover, DE & MG have this.
2. Secondly, as good as the potential of the sophomore goalie, Hogg, is - he's young and there's a steadiness that's not there...yet. Staying square and discerning when to be more judicial w/ coming out of the crease versus when to stay home. But it will come. The top 4 have exp & depth at G
3. Edina, when looking with an outside lens, appears to be same style, same strategy each game, each season. And thats great. But its that same "If you can skate with us ok lets go, majority can't and we will wear you down in the 3rd and pull away' profile. But? If you simply move your feet and don't watch Edina cycle in the corners and you get that 1st goal? Uh-oh...Hornet in trouble. And what's disturbing is it seems Edina will never a pull a goalie, never a different strategy or tonality to the team. Maybe I'm wrong? But its palpable.

They'll get better as season goes on, but these other top teams? Will ONLY get stronger and grittier as well - they just buckle up and FLY! Very aggressive and relentless. EP surely will be on 12/15! Time for the HORNET to do the same. It's the only way come late Feb.

1. Tonka
2. Andover
3. DE
4. MG
5. Edina

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Re: AA Rankings for 12/9/18

Post by ryguyMN » Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:15 am

I gave respect to White Bear Lake and Moorhead too this week as they made my top 10. Perhaps I punished EP too much, but vs. Hermantown was a winnable game.

1. Minnetonka (5-0)
2. Andover (5-0)
3. Duluth East (3-1)
4. Edina (3-0-1)
5. St. Thomas Academy (4-1-1)
6. Maple Grove (5-0-1)
7. White Bear Lake (5-1)
8. Moorhead (3-1)
9. Wayzata (3-2)
10. Eden Prairie (2-1-1)
Ryan

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Re: AA Rankings for 12/9/18

Post by Slap Shot » Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:41 am

Without knowing the SOS for each of the following it's interesting to see some solid W-L records for some of the lower ranked teams which possibly speaks to a decent amount of depth across the state. Not arguing against their rankings at all just hoping this is a sign for a competitive season across sections:

12. Hill-Murray (3-1)
13. Lakeville North (3-1)
14. Rosemount (4-0)
15. Blaine (4-0)

The Next Ten
Benilde-St. Margaret’s (4-1)
Blake (2-1)
Lakeville South (2-1)
Stillwater (2-0)

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Re: AA Rankings for 12/9/18

Post by elliott70 » Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:08 pm

QRF
1 Minnetonka (5-0) 81.7
2 Blaine (4-0) 75.9
3 Maple Grove (6-0) 73.2
4 Andover (5-0) 70.6
5 Rosemount (4-0) 70.3
6 Duluth East (3-1) 65.5
7 Edina (3-1) 58.6
8 White Bear Lake (5-1) 58.5
9 Benilde-St. Margaret's (4-1) 55.0
10 Elk River/Zimmerman (3-1) 54.9
11 Lakeville South (2-1) 54.4
12 Stillwater Area (2-0)52.9
13 Moorhead (2-1) 52.7
14 Lakeville North (3-1) 52.0
15 St. Michael-Albertville (3-1)

6AAGuy
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Re: AA Rankings for 12/9/18

Post by 6AAGuy » Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:13 pm

CakeScout17 wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:30 pm
Seen all 5 of 'top 5 play' this early season...
I would put FLIP Edina & MG! Not only based on logic but the basic eye test, whereas three observations are clear (IMHO);

1. I simply do not see aggressive checking in all zones, all game. That relentless pursuit & grit is not there...yet. Mtka, Andover, DE & MG have this.
2. Secondly, as good as the potential of the sophomore goalie, Hogg, is - he's young and there's a steadiness that's not there...yet. Staying square and discerning when to be more judicial w/ coming out of the crease versus when to stay home. But it will come. The top 4 have exp & depth at G
3. Edina, when looking with an outside lens, appears to be same style, same strategy each game, each season. And thats great. But its that same "If you can skate with us ok lets go, majority can't and we will wear you down in the 3rd and pull away' profile. But? If you simply move your feet and don't watch Edina cycle in the corners and you get that 1st goal? Uh-oh...Hornet in trouble. And what's disturbing is it seems Edina will never a pull a goalie, never a different strategy or tonality to the team. Maybe I'm wrong? But its palpable.

They'll get better as season goes on, but these other top teams? Will ONLY get stronger and grittier as well - they just buckle up and FLY! Very aggressive and relentless. EP surely will be on 12/15! Time for the HORNET to do the same. It's the only way come late Feb.

1. Tonka
2. Andover
3. DE
4. MG
5. Edina
Solid analysis on Hornet, Cake.
Does anyone know what happened to EP this weekend? Lost to Hermantown, soundly I've heard.....Huh?

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Re: AA Rankings for 12/9/18

Post by Slap Shot » Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:29 pm

6AAGuy wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:13 pm
CakeScout17 wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:30 pm
Seen all 5 of 'top 5 play' this early season...
I would put FLIP Edina & MG! Not only based on logic but the basic eye test, whereas three observations are clear (IMHO);

1. I simply do not see aggressive checking in all zones, all game. That relentless pursuit & grit is not there...yet. Mtka, Andover, DE & MG have this.
2. Secondly, as good as the potential of the sophomore goalie, Hogg, is - he's young and there's a steadiness that's not there...yet. Staying square and discerning when to be more judicial w/ coming out of the crease versus when to stay home. But it will come. The top 4 have exp & depth at G
3. Edina, when looking with an outside lens, appears to be same style, same strategy each game, each season. And thats great. But its that same "If you can skate with us ok lets go, majority can't and we will wear you down in the 3rd and pull away' profile. But? If you simply move your feet and don't watch Edina cycle in the corners and you get that 1st goal? Uh-oh...Hornet in trouble. And what's disturbing is it seems Edina will never a pull a goalie, never a different strategy or tonality to the team. Maybe I'm wrong? But its palpable.

They'll get better as season goes on, but these other top teams? Will ONLY get stronger and grittier as well - they just buckle up and FLY! Very aggressive and relentless. EP surely will be on 12/15! Time for the HORNET to do the same. It's the only way come late Feb.

1. Tonka
2. Andover
3. DE
4. MG
5. Edina
Solid analysis on Hornet, Cake.
Does anyone know what happened to EP this weekend? Lost to Hermantown, soundly I've heard.....Huh?
Hermantown won 5-3 with an empty netter and shots were 32-30 H. On that alone it sounds close but I didn't see the game and stats can sometimes lie.

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Re: AA Rankings for 12/9/18

Post by WestMetro » Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:42 pm

Lee- when will we be seeing a PageStat update?

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Re: AA Rankings for 12/9/18

Post by east hockey » Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:56 pm

WestMetro wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:42 pm
Lee- when will we be seeing a PageStat update?
Next Sunday or Monday.

Lee
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Egomaniac since 2006

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Re: AA Rankings for 12/9/18

Post by elliott70 » Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:58 pm

Lee
You are not busy tonight get on it.

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Re: AA Rankings for 12/9/18

Post by east hockey » Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:30 pm

elliott70 wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:58 pm
Lee
You are not busy tonight get on it.
Married. "Not busy" has not been in my vocabulary for quite some time. :shock:

Lee
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Egomaniac since 2006

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Re: AA Rankings for 12/9/18

Post by karl(east) » Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:18 pm

MWS coach wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:36 am
Always a great read I look forward to on Sunday morning, one clarification.

Andover does not play Elk River on Saturday, they play Tuesday the 18th.
Thanks, correction made.

On why Edina is still at #4, the short answer is that none of their wins are against teams currently in the top 15. I admittedly haven't seen them, but the early reviews haven't been overwhelming, either. Still plenty good, of course, but there are question marks, and their one game against a top 15 team ended in disappointment. (And sure, Maple Grove has risen to #5, but that's mostly on the strength of that Edina tie and other people not winning...it's a tenuous ranking at the moment.) If they win convincingly over Eden Prairie this week, I might buy them at #2, but I need more.

Both Andover and East, meanwhile, have two wins over teams in the top ten, which is a good signal that they belong there for now. (Doesn't look like Moorhead will be staying in the top ten, though. Pending results later this week, we'll likely be welcoming Roseau somewhere to the top 25 next Sunday!)

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Re: AA Rankings for 12/9/18

Post by muckandgrinder65 » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:26 pm

CEC we love you!
Just saying!
Blaze orange fanny pack for you and north woods!

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Re: AA Rankings for 12/9/18

Post by elliott70 » Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:32 am

MYHovckkey
1 Maple Grove HS 5-0-1
2 Minnetonka HS 5-0-0
3 Andover HS 5-0-0
4 Eagan HS 3-2-0
5 Wayzata HS 3-2-0
6 Moorhead HS 3-2-0
7 White Bear Lake HS 5-1-0
8 Lakeville North HS
9 Rosemount HS 4-1-0
10 Burnsville HS 1-4-0
11 St Michael Albertville HS 4-1-0
12 St Thomas Academy 6-4-1
13 Chaska HS 4-3-0
14 Prior Lake HS 3-2-0
15 Holy Family Catholic HS 1-4-0
16 Centennial HS 4-2-0
17 Benilde St Margarets HS 4-2-0
18 Roseau HS 3-2-1
19 Brainerd HS 2-3-0
20 Cloquet HS 1-5-0

Duluth East at 3-1 is not ranked - need 5 games per their methodology.
Blaine, Blake, Edina, Eden Prairie, Hill Murray among others

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Re: AA Rankings for 12/9/18

Post by old goalie85 » Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:05 am

STA record is 5-1-1. Tough road coming up though with HM, StillH2O and Edina

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Re: AA Rankings for 12/9/18

Post by MWS coach » Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:16 am

elliott70 wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:32 am
MYHovckkey
1 Maple Grove HS 5-0-1
2 Minnetonka HS 5-0-0
3 Andover HS 5-0-0
4 Eagan HS 3-2-0
5 Wayzata HS 3-2-0
6 Moorhead HS 3-2-0
7 White Bear Lake HS 5-1-0
8 Lakeville North HS
9 Rosemount HS 4-1-0
10 Burnsville HS 1-4-0
11 St Michael Albertville HS 4-1-0
12 St Thomas Academy 6-4-1
13 Chaska HS 4-3-0
14 Prior Lake HS 3-2-0
15 Holy Family Catholic HS 1-4-0
16 Centennial HS 4-2-0
17 Benilde St Margarets HS 4-2-0
18 Roseau HS 3-2-1
19 Brainerd HS 2-3-0
20 Cloquet HS 1-5-0

Duluth East at 3-1 is not ranked - need 5 games per their methodology.
Blaine, Blake, Edina, Eden Prairie, Hill Murray among others
Computer ranking that does not include teams until they have 5 games. The computer while does an ok job of ranking does have some interesting programing in determining rankings. It places a lot of value on goal differential (even against much lower ranked teams) and does not give much credit to recent games or from what I can tell any relavence on head to head. Still fun to see and is what it is, a computer ranking!

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Re: AA Rankings for 12/9/18

Post by O-townClown » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:00 pm

Adding teams with less than 5 games played.

1 Maple Grove HS 5-0-1
2 Minnetonka HS 5-0-0
Edina 95.34
3 Andover HS 5-0-0
Blaine 94.42
Duluth East 94.36
4 Eagan HS 3-2-0
Stillwater 93.77
5 Wayzata HS 3-2-0
Eden Prairie 93.45
Lakeville South 93.42
Hill-Murray 93.27
6 Moorhead HS 3-2-0
7 White Bear Lake HS 5-1-0
Cretin 92.80
8 Lakeville North HS
Blake 92.56
Champlin Park 92.49
9 Rosemount HS 4-1-0
10 Burnsville HS 1-4-0
Buffalo 92.07
11 St Michael Albertville HS 4-1-0
12 St Thomas Academy 6-4-1
13 Chaska HS 4-3-0
14 Prior Lake HS 3-2-0
15 Holy Family Catholic HS 1-4-0
16 Centennial HS 4-2-0
17 Benilde St Margarets HS 4-2-0
18 Roseau HS 3-2-1
19 Brainerd HS 2-3-0
20 Cloquet HS 1-5-0
Be kind. Rewind.

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Re: AA Rankings for 12/9/18

Post by elliott70 » Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:38 pm

Just sorting into top 10 then every 5
Adding teams with less than 5 games played.

1 Maple Grove HS 5-0-1
2 Minnetonka HS 5-0-0
Edina 95.34
3 Andover HS 5-0-0
Blaine 94.42
Duluth East 94.36
4 Eagan HS 3-2-0
Stillwater 93.77
5 Wayzata HS 3-2-0
Eden Prairie 93.45

Lakeville South 93.42
Hill-Murray 93.27
6 Moorhead HS 3-2-0
7 White Bear Lake HS 5-1-0
Cretin 92.80

8 Lakeville North HS
Blake 92.56
Champlin Park 92.49
9 Rosemount HS 4-1-0
10 Burnsville HS 1-4-0


(21)Buffalo 92.07
11 St Michael Albertville HS 4-1-0
12 St Thomas Academy 6-4-1
13 Chaska HS 4-3-0
14 Prior Lake HS 3-2-0

15 Holy Family Catholic HS 1-4-0
16 Centennial HS 4-2-0
17 Benilde St Margarets HS 4-2-0
18 Roseau HS 3-2-1
19 Brainerd HS 2-3-0


20 Cloquet HS 1-5-0

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Re: AA Rankings for 12/9/18

Post by O-townClown » Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:30 pm

We're getting a real bad rating for St. Thomas. It includes 4 games in error.

L 0-4 Loyola Academy Gold
L 3-7 Providence Catholic
L 0-4 Stevenson
W 4-2 Santa Margarita Catholic

Their rating should be 93.50 which puts them next to Wayzata
Be kind. Rewind.

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Re: AA Rankings for 12/9/18

Post by TheNightman » Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:54 am

They haven't played anyone, and won't until STA on the 27th, but Stillwater is looking much improved from last year.

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