PageStat 2018-19

[WestMetro]

Wow , that WBL goal differential must be a big factor, cause Blaine’s s sos is pretty low too ?

[east hockey]

Wow , that WBL goal differential must be a big factor, cause Blaine’s s sos is pretty low too ?

The SOS I've posted for the teams is for all the games they've played. I should probably adjust that to include only those games which aren't thrown out because the SOS difference between the two teams is over six points. WBL has no such games, but Blaine has five (Irondale, Spring Lk Pk, Roseville, Anoka (2)). This takes what looks like a not-so-strong SOS for Blaine of 18.711 and bumps it up to 20.172.

The reason I don't toss those out when calculating SOS for that web page you're referring to is it's a pain in the butt. If I can figure out a way to not have to manually do that (and since those games can change, especially when a given two teams are close to the 6 pt. PageStat threshold), then I'll make the change this weekend.

There is also the momentum thing which I've spoken of which states that more recent games are weighted more heavily than earlier games. Blaine's six goal win over Andover was very recent. Both their losses occurred before 1/1. Two of White Bear's losses came after 1/1. This has an impact, but not a big one. In fact, if I take out the momentum factor completely and rerun the ratings, Blaine is still #3. White Bear moves up only one position. As I said, not a big difference.

Getting back to recalculating the SOS thing--it just occurred to me that there is an easy way to do this in Excel. Gotta love spreadsheets

Lee

[east hockey]

The SOS for each team has been recalculated to only include games which aren't "thrown out" because of the difference in PageStat being too high. The SOS page has been updated.

http://minnhock.com/strength.htm

So, getting back to the Blaine vs. WBL comparison, you can now see how Blaine's SOS has jumped. And it was easier than I thought to redo this.

Lee

[karl(east)]

The SOS for each team has been recalculated to only include games which aren't "thrown out" because of the difference in PageStat being too high. The SOS page has been updated.

http://minnhock.com/strength.htm

So, getting back to the Blaine vs. WBL comparison, you can now see how Blaine's SOS has jumped. And it was easier than I thought to redo this.

Lee

In the future, do you think you could include columns with both the PageStat calculation SOS and the overall SOS that still includes games that have been thrown out? I find both useful in their own ways.

[east hockey]

The SOS for each team has been recalculated to only include games which aren't "thrown out" because of the difference in PageStat being too high. The SOS page has been updated.

http://minnhock.com/strength.htm

So, getting back to the Blaine vs. WBL comparison, you can now see how Blaine's SOS has jumped. And it was easier than I thought to redo this.

Lee

In the future, do you think you could include columns with both the PageStat calculation SOS and the overall SOS that still includes games that have been thrown out? I find both useful in their own ways.

Boy, you just really want me to break my hands doing that extra HTML coding, dontcha? Yeah, it can be done.

Lee

[WestMetro]

Ok , thanks for info .

I will just say that WBL has beaten and come very close to beating some pretty good teams . One of best games I saw this year was Bears late rally clawback to come close to Tonka

And probably 50/50 to be Section 4 Champ .

First time in my admittedly imperfect memory I can remember such a big outlier between PS and either Karls or LPH rankings . (Unlike QRF which always seems to have a lot of oddball outliers )

On other hand , this is a year where more pundits and coach polls were really wrong on more/many teams early on . Both way over and way under estimating their potential . Both Bears and Blaine 2 examples of the latter.

[blueblood]

FWIW - A teams schedule is their schedule.

Throwing out games with the 6-pt difference now creates a perception that a team like Blaine has a "strong" schedule, but in reality they don't.

[east hockey]

FWIW - A teams schedule is their schedule.

Throwing out games with the 6-pt difference now creates a perception that a team like Blaine has a "strong" schedule, but in reality they don't.

Throwing away games with a higher than 6-pt difference is necessary for the reason I stated in an earlier post. It makes no sense to penalize a team, regardless of result, when simply playing the game hurts their PageStat rating. It's a math thing.

I should probably put it into the FAQ on my site and point people to that who have questions which I've already answered here and in email on numerous occasions.

The other solution is to remove all caps and reward teams for running up the score. That has proven to result in PageStat ratings which are contrary to the stated goal of the system; to create ratings which are more accurate in predicting section tournament games results than the seedings are. PageStat has more than met that goal.

Lee

[blueblood]

I’m not debating their pagestat value.

Blaine’s SOS is not even close to any Lake team when the entire body of work is taken into consideration. Not some arbitrary subset of games.

[east hockey]

I’m not debating their pagestat value.

Blaine’s SOS is not even close to any Lake team when the entire body of work is taken into consideration. Not some arbitrary subset of games.

The question came up regarding Blaine's SOS vs White Bear Lake's, wondering how Blaine could be so much higher in PageStat. While their complete SOS isn't up to Lake standards, as you said, when considering the games which comprise their PageStat rating, it's much closer.

Lee

[zooomx]

I’m not debating their pagestat value.

Blaine’s SOS is not even close to any Lake team when the entire body of work is taken into consideration. Not some arbitrary subset of games.

The question came up regarding Blaine's SOS vs White Bear Lake's, wondering how Blaine could be so much higher in PageStat. While their complete SOS isn't up to Lake standards, as you said, when considering the games which comprise their PageStat rating, it's much closer.

Lee

Maybe alter scores to only show a 5 or 6 goal differential. That way, games are not thrown out at all and no team gets the benefit of an inflated goal differential.

[Section 8 guy]

I’d suggest throwing out goal differential altogether. It’s a double penalty for teams that play a steady diet of difficult teams with few blowout opportunities and a double reward for teams that play a steady diet of easier teams (the win and the padded goal totals).

At a minimum, cap the goal differential as suggested above.

[Slap Shot]

I’d suggest throwing out goal differential altogether. It’s a double penalty for teams that play a steady diet of difficult teams with few blowout opportunities and a double reward for teams that play a steady diet of easier teams (the win and the padded goal totals).

At a minimum, cap the goal differential as suggested above.

I'm not against goal differential being capped, but SOS isn't hurting most of the top teams. 9 of the Top 15 rated teams on PageStat have a Top 10 SOS, and per SOH.com all ten teams with a Top 10 SOS are ranked in the Top 15.

[BodyShots]

I’d suggest throwing out goal differential altogether. It’s a double penalty for teams that play a steady diet of difficult teams with few blowout opportunities and a double reward for teams that play a steady diet of easier teams (the win and the padded goal totals).

At a minimum, cap the goal differential as suggested above.

I'm not against goal differential being capped, but SOS isn't hurting most of the top teams. 9 of the Top 15 rated teams on PageStat have a Top 10 SOS, and per SOH.com all ten teams with a Top 10 SOS are ranked in the Top 15.

Your missing the point. WBL who is 15 - 3 - 1 is not a top 20 team in PageStat because of their SOS rating. Every other ranking system has them in the top 10.

What amazes me is that WBL has played Tonka when they were #1 and lost by a goal. Played DE when they were ranked #2 and lost by 3 with 2 EN goals. Lost to Andover when they were ranked #2 and were tied heading into the 3rd. What's killing their SOS is playing in the SEC and playing a bunch of 7AA teams when that section is having a down year. Beating Cloquet, Rapids, and even HM doesn't help the SOS this year as much as it has in the past. On the other hand, if they would have lost to these teams, their SOS would have looked better.

[east hockey]

I’d suggest throwing out goal differential altogether. It’s a double penalty for teams that play a steady diet of difficult teams with few blowout opportunities and a double reward for teams that play a steady diet of easier teams (the win and the padded goal totals).

At a minimum, cap the goal differential as suggested above.

I'm not against goal differential being capped, but SOS isn't hurting most of the top teams. 9 of the Top 15 rated teams on PageStat have a Top 10 SOS, and per SOH.com all ten teams with a Top 10 SOS are ranked in the Top 15.

Your missing the point. WBL who is 15 - 3 - 1 is not a top 20 team in PageStat because of their SOS rating. Every other ranking system has them in the top 10.

What amazes me is that WBL has played Tonka when they were #1 and lost by a goal. Played DE when they were ranked #2 and lost by 3 with 2 EN goals. Lost to Andover when they were ranked #2 and were tied heading into the 3rd. What's killing their SOS is playing in the SEC and playing a bunch of 7AA teams when that section is having a down year. Beating Cloquet, Rapids, and even HM doesn't help the SOS this year as much as it has in the past. On the other hand, if they would have lost to these teams, their SOS would have looked better.

On the other hand, explaining PageStat in the FAQ might not help. I call it the "Whoosh" factor.

Lee

[Slap Shot]

I’d suggest throwing out goal differential altogether. It’s a double penalty for teams that play a steady diet of difficult teams with few blowout opportunities and a double reward for teams that play a steady diet of easier teams (the win and the padded goal totals).

At a minimum, cap the goal differential as suggested above.

I'm not against goal differential being capped, but SOS isn't hurting most of the top teams. 9 of the Top 15 rated teams on PageStat have a Top 10 SOS, and per SOH.com all ten teams with a Top 10 SOS are ranked in the Top 15.

Your missing the point.

Not within the post I actually responded to no. Most of the top rated teams have also played a difficult SOS and therefore didn't suffer for it.

As for WBL they were rated #6 in the Jan 23rd LPH rating. The rest of the season and sections will (no pun intended) bear more out.

[east hockey]

As of now, there are six disagreements between PageStat and the various section seedings:

Section 2AA quarterfinals: (5) Holy Family over (4) Prior Lake
Section 3AA first round: (9) East Ridge over (8) Apple Valley
Section 4AA quarterfinals: (5) Woodbury over (4) Irondale
Section 6AA first round: (9) St Louis Park over (8) Hopkins
Section 7AA quarterfinals: (5) Elk River over (4) Forest Lake
Section 3A quarterfinals: (5) Hutchinson over (4) Luverne

There could (and probably will) be more as the rounds progress.

Lee

[Stang5280]

As of now, there are six disagreements between PageStat and the various section seedings:

Section 2AA quarterfinals: (5) Holy Family over (4) Prior Lake
Section 3AA first round: (9) East Ridge over (8) Apple Valley
Section 4AA quarterfinals: (5) Woodbury over (4) Irondale
Section 6AA first round: (9) St Louis Park over (8) Hopkins
Section 7AA quarterfinals: (5) Elk River over (4) Forest Lake
Section 3A quarterfinals: (5) Hutchinson over (4) Luverne

There could (and probably will) be more as the rounds progress.

Lee

That seems like a low number of disparities with seeding. Any idea how that stacks up on average? Perhaps the coaches are improving their seeding processes and taking a deeper into SOS and similar factors.

[east hockey]

As of now, there are six disagreements between PageStat and the various section seedings:

Section 2AA quarterfinals: (5) Holy Family over (4) Prior Lake
Section 3AA first round: (9) East Ridge over (8) Apple Valley
Section 4AA quarterfinals: (5) Woodbury over (4) Irondale
Section 6AA first round: (9) St Louis Park over (8) Hopkins
Section 7AA quarterfinals: (5) Elk River over (4) Forest Lake
Section 3A quarterfinals: (5) Hutchinson over (4) Luverne

There could (and probably will) be more as the rounds progress.

Lee

That seems like a low number of disparities with seeding. Any idea how that stacks up on average? Perhaps the coaches are improving their seeding processes and taking a deeper into SOS and similar factors.

Not really low. Here are the disagreements by year. The first number is the number of disagreements in the first round and quarterfinals, the second number (in parenthesis) is the total. It's not known yet how many total disagreements there will be, of course. I'll probably take a look at how many possible disagreements there are left after the first round games are complete.

2018: 6 (11)
2017: 9 (12)
2016: 9 (6)
2015: 7 (13)
2014: 3 (7)

And to toss out the earliest results:

1999: 6 (12)

Lee

[east hockey]

If Greenway beats North Shore tonight, PageStat picks (3) Greenway over (2) Denfeld in 7A.

Lee

[goldy313]

How anyone could vote 2-22 Apple Valley ahead of anyone is a head scratcher. (Yea, they beat Eastridge but using one game ). Eastridge was 10-14-1, had tied WBL and beat Hastings.

That was a layup for pagestat. A 38 place difference

[east hockey]

How anyone could vote 2-22 Apple Valley ahead of anyone is a head scratcher. (Yea, they beat Eastridge but using one game ). Eastridge was 10-14-1, had tied WBL and beat Hastings.

That was a layup for pagestat. A 38 place difference

PageStat up one game after tonight, with Elk River beating Forest Lake. I was wondering that about Apple Valley too, goldy. But St Louis Park lost in overtime to Hopkins, so it wasn't a three-game sweep for old HAL tonight. At least five more upcoming games are in disagreement.

(5) Holy Family over (4) Prior Lake in 2AA
(5) Woodbury over (4) Irondale in 4AA
(3) Brainerd over (2) Roseau in 8AA
(5) Hutchinson over (4) Luverne in 3A
(3) Greenway over (2) Denfeld in 7A

Gotta say I like the Greenway and Holy Family picks. Not sure about Woodbury and I really don't like PageStat picking Brainerd and Hutchinson. But too many times when I think "that's a good pick, that's a bad pick", the opposite happens. So we'll see.

Lee

[hockey9011]

How anyone could vote 2-22 Apple Valley ahead of anyone is a head scratcher. (Yea, they beat Eastridge but using one game ). Eastridge was 10-14-1, had tied WBL and beat Hastings.

That was a layup for pagestat. A 38 place difference

PageStat up one game after tonight, with Elk River beating Forest Lake. I was wondering that about Apple Valley too, goldy. But St Louis Park lost in overtime to Hopkins, so it wasn't a three-game sweep for old HAL tonight. At least five more upcoming games are in disagreement.

(5) Holy Family over (4) Prior Lake in 2AA
(5) Woodbury over (4) Irondale in 4AA
(3) Brainerd over (2) Roseau in 8AA
(5) Hutchinson over (4) Luverne in 3A
(3) Greenway over (2) Denfeld in 7A

Gotta say I like the Greenway and Holy Family picks. Not sure about Woodbury and I really don't like PageStat picking Brainerd and Hutchinson. But too many times when I think "that's a good pick, that's a bad pick", the opposite happens. So we'll see.

Lee

How close is (3) Alexandria over (2) Sartell from joining that list? Seems like most people think that Alexandria is the better team in that game despite Sartell taking the first matchup 1-0

[east hockey]

How anyone could vote 2-22 Apple Valley ahead of anyone is a head scratcher. (Yea, they beat Eastridge but using one game ). Eastridge was 10-14-1, had tied WBL and beat Hastings.

That was a layup for pagestat. A 38 place difference

PageStat up one game after tonight, with Elk River beating Forest Lake. I was wondering that about Apple Valley too, goldy. But St Louis Park lost in overtime to Hopkins, so it wasn't a three-game sweep for old HAL tonight. At least five more upcoming games are in disagreement.

(5) Holy Family over (4) Prior Lake in 2AA
(5) Woodbury over (4) Irondale in 4AA
(3) Brainerd over (2) Roseau in 8AA
(5) Hutchinson over (4) Luverne in 3A
(3) Greenway over (2) Denfeld in 7A

Gotta say I like the Greenway and Holy Family picks. Not sure about Woodbury and I really don't like PageStat picking Brainerd and Hutchinson. But too many times when I think "that's a good pick, that's a bad pick", the opposite happens. So we'll see.

Lee

How close is (3) Alexandria over (2) Sartell from joining that list? Seems like most people think that Alexandria is the better team in that game despite Sartell taking the first matchup 1-0

That game now joins the list.

Lee

[Slap Shot]

As of now, there are six disagreements between PageStat and the various section seedings:

Section 2AA quarterfinals: (5) Holy Family over (4) Prior Lake
Section 3AA first round: (9) East Ridge over (8) Apple Valley
Section 4AA quarterfinals: (5) Woodbury over (4) Irondale
Section 6AA first round: (9) St Louis Park over (8) Hopkins
Section 7AA quarterfinals: (5) Elk River over (4) Forest Lake
Section 3A quarterfinals: (5) Hutchinson over (4) Luverne

There could (and probably will) be more as the rounds progress.

Lee

Might be a dumb question, but this is a list of disparities between how PageStat would seed vs. how the sections actually ended up being seeded? So PageStat would have seeded HF 4th and PL 5th but actual seeding was reversed?