PageStat 2018-19

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PageStat 2018-19

Post by east hockey » Sat Dec 29, 2018 8:38 am

As usual, full weekly ratings will be posted at http://minnhock.com/ps2019.htm

I will be posted interim Top 20 in this thread.

How they stand after yesterday's (Dec. 28) games:

1. Edina
2. Minnetonka
3. Maple Grove
4. Hermantown
5. Andover
6. Eden Prairie
7. Wayzata
8. Stillwater
9. Duluth East
10. St. Thomas Academy
11. Eagan
12. Hill-Murray
13. Benilde-St Margaret's
14. Lakeville South
15. Blaine
16. Holy Family
17. Rosemount
18. Blake
19. Moorhead
20. White Bear Lake

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Slapper Al
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Re: PageStat 2018-19

Post by Slapper Al » Sat Dec 29, 2018 11:14 am

I think they are missing some games for CDH. They are 4-4-1

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Re: PageStat 2018-19

Post by east hockey » Sat Dec 29, 2018 11:55 am

Slapper Al wrote:
Sat Dec 29, 2018 11:14 am
I think they are missing some games for CDH. They are 4-4-1
If you're referring to the link you clicked on, that was as of 12/22 (it's noted at the top of the page). They were 3-4 as of that date, 4-4-1 through yesterday.

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elliott70
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Re: PageStat 2018-19

Post by elliott70 » Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:04 pm

DEast looks a little high.

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Re: PageStat 2018-19

Post by blueblood » Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:24 pm

HF:

0-6-0 vs AA teams.
Play Like a Champion Today

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Re: PageStat 2018-19

Post by Stang5280 » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:43 pm

I was about to ask where Hermantown was, then I realize that they have crept up all the way up to #4 after beating two more quality AA teams. The PS rating gap between the Hawks and the next A teams is ridiculous at this point, but we’ll find soon enough if that is justified when they face Cathedral next Friday.

As for HF, I am guessing that some of the computer love for them is based on destroying two strong A teams in Greenway and Orono.

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Re: PageStat 2018-19

Post by hockey59 » Sat Dec 29, 2018 3:06 pm

Stang5280 wrote:
Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:43 pm
I was about to ask where Hermantown was, then I realize that they have crept up all the way up to #4 after beating two more quality AA teams. The PS rating gap between the Hawks and the next A teams is ridiculous at this point, but we’ll find soon enough if that is justified when they face Cathedral next Friday.

As for HF, I am guessing that some of the computer love for them is based on destroying two strong A teams in Greenway and Orono.
I watched HT play Blake & Brainerd (the past 2 days). While I don’t think they have the depth to beat a Tonka or Edina, aside from those two, any other AA team they’d have a good chance beating, they already beat EP.

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Re: PageStat 2018-19

Post by east hockey » Sat Dec 29, 2018 3:46 pm

Stang5280 wrote:
Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:43 pm
I was about to ask where Hermantown was, then I realize that they have crept up all the way up to #4 after beating two more quality AA teams. The PS rating gap between the Hawks and the next A teams is ridiculous at this point, but we’ll find soon enough if that is justified when they face Cathedral next Friday.

As for HF, I am guessing that some of the computer love for them is based on destroying two strong A teams in Greenway and Orono.
I think a big part of this is that their schedule hasn't been as week as some had thought--their SOS based on PageStat is currently sitting at #20.

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Re: PageStat 2018-19

Post by goldy313 » Sun Dec 30, 2018 12:02 am

Why is Hastings so low? They beat #5 Eagan, lost to Mahtomedi by 1. Their other loss was to Park, a bad loss in their first game after a long football season.

Hibbing behind Redwood Falls, Dodge County, and Windom? While probably deserved it it is still shocking.

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Re: PageStat 2018-19

Post by east hockey » Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:15 am

New weekly ratings posted at http://minnhock.com/ps2019.htm

PageStat SOS rankings are at http://minnhock.com/strength.htm

Top 20 in PageStat:

1. Minnetonka
2. Edina
3. Maple Grove
4. Hermantown
5. Andover
6. Eden Prairie
7. Chaska
8. Wayzata
9. Duluth East
10, Hill-Murray
11. Eagan
12. St. Thomas Academy
13. Blaine
14. Benilde-St. Margaret's
15. Holy Family
16. Stillwater
17. Rosemount
18, Moorhead
19. Blake
20. Lakeville North

Outside of Hermantown, Class A is a jumble near the top with Mahtomedi, East Grand Forks and St. Cloud Cathedral occupying the #22-24 spots.

When was the last time section 7A and 7AA had three teams (Hibbing, Ely & Cambridge) in the bottom 10? I'd have to research this but I wouldn't be surprised if this was the first time.

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Re: PageStat 2018-19

Post by east hockey » Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:40 am

First, the normal weekly complete ratings are at http://minnhock.com/ps2019.htm

As are the updated Strengh of Schedule ratings at http://minnhock.com/strength.htm

I reran the rankings after last night's games because I was interested in how East's narrow victory over Denfeld affected their ratings. As it turned out, quite a bit evidenced by the new Top 20:

1. Minnetonka
2. Edina
3. Maple Grove
4. Hermantown
5. Andover
6. Eden Prairie
7. Blaine
8. St Thomas Acad
9. Wayzata
10. Holy Family
11. Chaska
12. Duluth East
13. Hill-Murray
14. Benilde-St Margarets
15. St Cloud Cathedral
16. East Grand Forks
17. Lakeville South
18. Rosemount
19. Blake
20. Cloquet

East dropped six places! What is interesting about this is that, if Denfeld's PageStat had been much lower coming into the game, the result wouldn't have changed East's rating. Why? Because PageStat ignores games between teams where their PageStat rating difference is higher than six points. This is to keep a game against a bad opponent from affecting your rating. It has to do with the "goal cap" where a win higher than the cap (it's set at six goals) has no further impact on your rating. And vice versa, of course. The cap was implemented to prevent a team from running up the score to a ridiculous level (Moorhead 26, Monticello 0--remember that one?) being rewarded for it.

So, with the cap, here is an example of what I just wrote.

Team A Rating is 20.00
Team B Rating is 10.00

Team A beats Team B by the expected ten goals. But the PageStat "game score" looks like:

((20+10)/2)+(6/2)=18.00

"6" is the goal cap, so 10 (the actual margin) isn't used. You can see that Team A's new PageStat rating is hurt by playing a very bad opponent. The opposite would be true for the worse team, of course.

This is why those games are ignored when calculating PageStat for teams.

How often does this happen? Of the 980 games played so far this season, 78 games have been thrown out because of the PageStat Goal Cap.

If I had time, I could rerun the ratings, ignoring the goal cap and show how it affects the Top 20. Perhaps I'll do this on Wednesday when I have more time.

More data? Okay. Here is how many games each team in the Top 20 have had "tossed out"

Andover--3
Benilde--0
Blaine--1
Blake--0
Chaska--0
Cloquet--1
Duluth East--0
East Grand Forks--2
Eden Prairie--0
Edina--1
Hermantown--2
Hill-Murray--3
Holy Family--1
Lake South--1
Maple Grove--1
Minnetonka--3
Rosemount--1
St Cloud Cathedral--5
St Thomas Academy--0
Wayzata--0

On the flip side, Hibbing has had all but three of their games so far this season tossed out. This is what happens when you have a team perform terribly while playing a fairly decent slate of opponents. Hibbing's SOS is 17.08, very good by Class A standards.

I don't know if I addressed this issue in the PageStat FAQ--I haven't updated that information in a few years. I should take another look at that because the goal cap is essential to how PageStat works.

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elliott70
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Re: PageStat 2018-19

Post by elliott70 » Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:46 am

I quit listening after
"20. Cloquet".

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Re: PageStat 2018-19

Post by elliott70 » Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:47 am

But thank you.
It is the best computer model in existence.


I would like to see an eyeball ranking from westmetro, otown, and others (without any or limited bias),

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Re: PageStat 2018-19

Post by WestMetro » Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:51 am

Very interesting

I’m starting to think Hounds outside top ten might be reality at least for now , until we start seeing more pucks in net

Elliott - hard to disagree with Pagestat top 20 as a group. Tonka and Edina definitely 1 and 2 ImHO . After that , things get murky quickly .
Holy Family looks high .

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Re: PageStat 2018-19

Post by massalsa » Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:09 pm

Would it be difficult to run this on the Girls HS side? Would be interesting to see their rankings vs KRACH, QRF, etc.

Thanks!

On the boys side how is Chaska not in the top 20? They beat Blake who beat HF, EP, and also beat Edina & EP themselves. Is it the couple of bad losses?

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Re: PageStat 2018-19

Post by kniven » Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:11 pm

massalsa wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:09 pm
Would it be difficult to run this on the Girls HS side? Would be interesting to see their rankings vs KRACH, QRF, etc.

Thanks!

On the boys side how is Chaska not in the top 20? They beat Blake who beat HF, EP, and also beat Edina & EP themselves. Is it the couple of bad losses?
Chaska is #11
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Re: PageStat 2018-19

Post by east hockey » Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:28 pm

massalsa wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:09 pm
Would it be difficult to run this on the Girls HS side? Would be interesting to see their rankings vs KRACH, QRF, etc.

Thanks!

On the boys side how is Chaska not in the top 20? They beat Blake who beat HF, EP, and also beat Edina & EP themselves. Is it the couple of bad losses?
I did run the girls' ratings for a few years and then stopped. It was a time issue for me. Brian Gorsky (I think that's his name) does a great job with KRACH.

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Re: PageStat 2018-19

Post by massalsa » Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:33 pm

kniven wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:11 pm
massalsa wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:09 pm
Would it be difficult to run this on the Girls HS side? Would be interesting to see their rankings vs KRACH, QRF, etc.

Thanks!

On the boys side how is Chaska not in the top 20? They beat Blake who beat HF, EP, and also beat Edina & EP themselves. Is it the couple of bad losses?
Chaska is #11
My bad...thanks for pointing it out.

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Re: PageStat 2018-19

Post by BigTen » Tue Jan 08, 2019 3:19 pm

east hockey wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:40 am
First, the normal weekly complete ratings are at http://minnhock.com/ps2019.htm

As are the updated Strengh of Schedule ratings at http://minnhock.com/strength.htm

I reran the rankings after last night's games because I was interested in how East's narrow victory over Denfeld affected their ratings. As it turned out, quite a bit evidenced by the new Top 20:

1. Minnetonka
2. Edina
3. Maple Grove
4. Hermantown
5. Andover
6. Eden Prairie
7. Blaine
8. St Thomas Acad
9. Wayzata
10. Holy Family
11. Chaska
12. Duluth East
13. Hill-Murray
14. Benilde-St Margarets
15. St Cloud Cathedral
16. East Grand Forks
17. Lakeville South
18. Rosemount
19. Blake
20. Cloquet

East dropped six places! What is interesting about this is that, if Denfeld's PageStat had been much lower coming into the game, the result wouldn't have changed East's rating. Why? Because PageStat ignores games between teams where their PageStat rating difference is higher than six points. This is to keep a game against a bad opponent from affecting your rating. It has to do with the "goal cap" where a win higher than the cap (it's set at six goals) has no further impact on your rating. And vice versa, of course. The cap was implemented to prevent a team from running up the score to a ridiculous level (Moorhead 26, Monticello 0--remember that one?) being rewarded for it.

So, with the cap, here is an example of what I just wrote.

Team A Rating is 20.00
Team B Rating is 10.00

Team A beats Team B by the expected ten goals. But the PageStat "game score" looks like:

((20+10)/2)+(6/2)=18.00

"6" is the goal cap, so 10 (the actual margin) isn't used. You can see that Team A's new PageStat rating is hurt by playing a very bad opponent. The opposite would be true for the worse team, of course.

This is why those games are ignored when calculating PageStat for teams.

How often does this happen? Of the 980 games played so far this season, 78 games have been thrown out because of the PageStat Goal Cap.

If I had time, I could rerun the ratings, ignoring the goal cap and show how it affects the Top 20. Perhaps I'll do this on Wednesday when I have more time.

More data? Okay. Here is how many games each team in the Top 20 have had "tossed out"

Andover--3
Benilde--0
Blaine--1
Blake--0
Chaska--0
Cloquet--1
Duluth East--0
East Grand Forks--2
Eden Prairie--0
Edina--1
Hermantown--2
Hill-Murray--3
Holy Family--1
Lake South--1
Maple Grove--1
Minnetonka--3
Rosemount--1
St Cloud Cathedral--5
St Thomas Academy--0
Wayzata--0

On the flip side, Hibbing has had all but three of their games so far this season tossed out. This is what happens when you have a team perform terribly while playing a fairly decent slate of opponents. Hibbing's SOS is 17.08, very good by Class A standards.

I don't know if I addressed this issue in the PageStat FAQ--I haven't updated that information in a few years. I should take another look at that because the goal cap is essential to how PageStat works.

Lee
Could this game potentially be eliminated from the calculation further into the season if the Hounds' rating increased and the Hunter's rating decreased far enough? Or is it forever included?

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Re: PageStat 2018-19

Post by east hockey » Tue Jan 08, 2019 3:34 pm

BigTen wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 3:19 pm
east hockey wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:40 am
First, the normal weekly complete ratings are at http://minnhock.com/ps2019.htm

As are the updated Strengh of Schedule ratings at http://minnhock.com/strength.htm

I reran the rankings after last night's games because I was interested in how East's narrow victory over Denfeld affected their ratings. As it turned out, quite a bit evidenced by the new Top 20:

1. Minnetonka
2. Edina
3. Maple Grove
4. Hermantown
5. Andover
6. Eden Prairie
7. Blaine
8. St Thomas Acad
9. Wayzata
10. Holy Family
11. Chaska
12. Duluth East
13. Hill-Murray
14. Benilde-St Margarets
15. St Cloud Cathedral
16. East Grand Forks
17. Lakeville South
18. Rosemount
19. Blake
20. Cloquet

East dropped six places! What is interesting about this is that, if Denfeld's PageStat had been much lower coming into the game, the result wouldn't have changed East's rating. Why? Because PageStat ignores games between teams where their PageStat rating difference is higher than six points. This is to keep a game against a bad opponent from affecting your rating. It has to do with the "goal cap" where a win higher than the cap (it's set at six goals) has no further impact on your rating. And vice versa, of course. The cap was implemented to prevent a team from running up the score to a ridiculous level (Moorhead 26, Monticello 0--remember that one?) being rewarded for it.

So, with the cap, here is an example of what I just wrote.

Team A Rating is 20.00
Team B Rating is 10.00

Team A beats Team B by the expected ten goals. But the PageStat "game score" looks like:

((20+10)/2)+(6/2)=18.00

"6" is the goal cap, so 10 (the actual margin) isn't used. You can see that Team A's new PageStat rating is hurt by playing a very bad opponent. The opposite would be true for the worse team, of course.

This is why those games are ignored when calculating PageStat for teams.

How often does this happen? Of the 980 games played so far this season, 78 games have been thrown out because of the PageStat Goal Cap.

If I had time, I could rerun the ratings, ignoring the goal cap and show how it affects the Top 20. Perhaps I'll do this on Wednesday when I have more time.

More data? Okay. Here is how many games each team in the Top 20 have had "tossed out"

Andover--3
Benilde--0
Blaine--1
Blake--0
Chaska--0
Cloquet--1
Duluth East--0
East Grand Forks--2
Eden Prairie--0
Edina--1
Hermantown--2
Hill-Murray--3
Holy Family--1
Lake South--1
Maple Grove--1
Minnetonka--3
Rosemount--1
St Cloud Cathedral--5
St Thomas Academy--0
Wayzata--0

On the flip side, Hibbing has had all but three of their games so far this season tossed out. This is what happens when you have a team perform terribly while playing a fairly decent slate of opponents. Hibbing's SOS is 17.08, very good by Class A standards.

I don't know if I addressed this issue in the PageStat FAQ--I haven't updated that information in a few years. I should take another look at that because the goal cap is essential to how PageStat works.

Lee
Could this game potentially be eliminated from the calculation further into the season if the Hounds' rating increased and the Hunter's rating decreased far enough? Or is it forever included?
It could be eliminated based on what happens in future games. I start each team's rating at 15.00 when the calculations begin and then run a couple hundred iterations on them until they reach a point where running the numbers further no longer has an effect on the ratings (other than a couple thousandths of a point, that is :) )

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Re: PageStat 2018-19

Post by east hockey » Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:14 pm

The weekly ratings will be posted in full tomorrow, but here's something of interest for 7AA fans:

14. Cloquet
15. Duluth East

I watched the margin between the two shrink last weekend after East's trip to hell (Brainerd and Moorhead). Last night's Hounds loss to Prior Lake tightened it further but tonight finally edged Cloquet ahead of East.

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Re: PageStat 2018-19

Post by BodyShots » Mon Jan 28, 2019 10:23 am

Where is WBL? #-o

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Re: PageStat 2018-19

Post by WestMetro » Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:10 pm

Lee- A bit surprised WBL at 15-3 is down at 23rd on PS this week? What factors are causing that?

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Re: PageStat 2018-19

Post by east hockey » Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:50 pm

WestMetro wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:10 pm
Lee- A bit surprised WBL at 15-3 is down at 23rd on PS this week? What factors are causing that?
From what I'm seeing, they're not down:

12/29--25th
1/5--21st
1/12--23rd
1/19--25th
1/26--23rd

Their record is good but it's been done against a less than stellar slate of opponents per PageStat SOS, which rates 31st as of now. Also, their adjusted goal differential of +33 (winning margins are capped at six goals to prevent being rewarded by running up the score to an insane level), while good, against isn't good enough in light of their SOS to put them higher. Those two things (not great SOS, not great Goal Differential) combine for what you see.

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Re: PageStat 2018-19

Post by east hockey » Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:51 pm

BodyShots wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 10:23 am
Where is WBL? #-o
Right where they are. :mrgreen:

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