AA Rankings for 2/3/18

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karl(east)
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AA Rankings for 2/3/18

Post by karl(east) » Sun Feb 03, 2019 7:55 am

Weather wreaked havoc on the high school season for just about everyone not named Roseau in AA this week, but we still had a bit of separating happen between contenders and pretenders. The top four are building some separation now, while the bottom end is an interesting debate between the consistently good-but-not-great and the inconsistent-but-capable-of-beating-anyone.

1. Edina (17-2-1)
-The Hornets withstood a strong test from Wayzata, which goes to show that 6AA is no foregone conclusion. They got the win, though, on the strength of their explosive top line, and will look to ride that offense as far as it can take them. The hits keep coming this week, as they face a pesky White Bear team before a rematch with Minnetonka that will have a huge say in next week’s rankings.
This week: Tues at #7 White Bear Lake, Sat vs. #3 Minnetonka

2. Blaine (14-2-2)
-Weather took out the Bengals’ game with White Bear Lake, which deprived them of another chance at a quality opponent, but they did nothing to jeopardize their position here with a thumping of Elk River. They have an interesting three-day run of games this week, including one two against teams that are capable of pulling upsets on good nights.
This week: Thurs vs. Totino-Grace, Fri vs. Brainerd, Sat vs. Coon Rapids

3. Minnetonka (19-1-2)
-The Skippers escaped with an overtime win over Eden Prairie; the tests keep coming, but this team has a way of pulling them out. They haven’t played scored more than three goals in any of their last four games, which is a mild concern offensively, but they continue to win, and will have their chance to reclaim the top ranking on Saturday.
This week: Thurs vs. Hopkins, Sat at #1 Edina

4. Andover (19-2-1)
-An impressive performance in a win over Maple Grove keeps the pressure on the teams immediately above the Huskies. The Totino game this week could be interesting; after that, they’re unlikely to be tested until a later round in sections.
This week: Sat vs. Totino-Grace

5. St. Thomas Academy (18-3-1)
-The Cadets avenged an earlier loss to Hill with a convincing performance, and should be locked into the top ten the rest of the way. They’re now on a 12-game winning streak over the course of which they’ve given up just nine goals. Is this the season they finally get the defensive performance they need to make a deep AA run?
This week: Tues vs. Mahtomedi, Sat vs. Henry Sibley

6. Eden Prairie (11-7-2)
-The Eagles are a frustrating team to rank, as they continue to push the top teams in the state to the brink and yet continue to not win. They have the depth and the front-end talent to compete with anyone, so the question now becomes one of whether they’re slowly putting it together or they’re still just a step behind the Minnetonkas and Edinas of the world. They avoid those top-end teams this week, but still face a couple of legitimate tests that should decide whether they should continue to stay this high despite their record.
This week: Tues at Stillwater, Thurs vs. #13 Wayzata, Sat vs. #8 Benilde-St. Margaret’s

7. White Bear Lake (17-3-1)
-The Bears methodically continued their progression through the Suburban East, but lost their chance at a game with Blaine that could have really let them make a splash. Just one game this week, but it gives them a shot at the top team in the state.
This week: Tues vs. #1 Edina

8. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (15-5)
-The Red Knights made up for an earlier loss with a win over Jefferson on Saturday. This week will be the true test of this team’s top ten ranking, as they face unpredictable Chaska and their old friend Eden Prairie.
This week: Thurs vs. Chaska, Sat at #6 Eden Prairie

9. Maple Grove (14-4-1)
-The Crimson were shut down by Andover and are trending in the wrong direction in their games against top-end competition. They’ll have a busy final two weeks with three games in each; Duluth East is the only ranked opponent in that stretch, though Elk River did give them a game in their first meeting.
This week: Tues at Elk River, Thurs at Coon Rapids, Sat vs. Osseo

10. Moorhead (15-6-1)
-The Spuds ran their winning streak to six with a couple of wins over competition their north. They’re plugging along solidly now, and with others hitting some bumps, edge upwards in the rankings. They should keep up the momentum in their only game this week.
This week: Fri at St. Cloud

11. Rosemount (17-3)
-Weather left the Irish with only a layup against Shakopee this past week. A rematch with Eagan, which could decide the 2-seed in 3AA, looms this week; while that may not seem momentous, it could be helpful in the quarterfinals given the depth of respectable teams in this section.
This week: Tues vs. Apple Valley, Sat vs. Eagan

12. Hill-Murray (12-6-2)
-The Pioneers looked listless in a loss to St. Thomas, and while a healthy Nick Pierre would certainly help the cause, they’ll need a lot more production to get past White Bear Lake in 4AA. The Hastings game this week could have a little intrigue to it.
This week: Tues at Tartan, Thurs vs. Hastings, Sat vs. Duluth Marshall

13. Wayzata (11-7-3)
-What to make of the Trojans, who looked good in giving an Edina a serious test before turning around and losing to 7-15 Grand Rapids? I think the simple truth is that, like Duluth East, teams that put defense first position themselves well for strong playoff runs and beating teams with more talent, but leave themselves vulnerable to some odd upsets. Such is life for the Trojans, who will look to avenge their earlier loss to Eden Prairie this week.
This week: Thurs at #6 Eden Prairie, Sat at Hopkins

14. Duluth East (13-6-2)
-The Hounds flattened Elk River in their only action; now, the question is whether they can play that way consistently. I’ve reassessed the Hounds and Chaska upward somewhat since I think they have a bit more potential than the two teams battling for the 4-seed in 6AA; between Wayzata, East, and Chaska, there’s an awful lot of inconsistency in this portion of the rankings. The Cloquet game this week will be an interesting bellwether, and a likely preview of a 7AA semifinal.
This week: Mon at Cloquet, Thurs at Lakeville South

15. Chaska (14-7)
-The Hawks are rolling over easier competition, which I suppose is an improvement over their performance in such games at certain points this season. Things ramp back up again this week, though, as they get a second crack at Benilde and also face respectable Jefferson. This is their chance to climb back into the top 15 before sections start.
This week: Thurs at #8 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat vs. Bloomington Jefferson

The Next Ten

Blake (13-6-1)
-The Bears did what they needed to do against some of their metro private school brethren. A three-game week that includes respectable Buffalo awaits.

Cretin-Derham Hall (13-6-1)
-The Raiders took care of business against a couple of conference foes, and will look to do the same again this week; Stillwater could pose a mild test. I’ve gone back and forth on this team some over the past two weeks, but at the end of the day their best win right now is over Holy Family, and that tie to Hill is looking less impressive of late. They just don’t have the credentials of a top 15 team.

Eagan (14-6)
-The Wildcats pulled out a win over Lakeville North, a showing that keeps them ahead of the muddle behind but doesn’t make a case for a move up, either. Lakeville South, who beat them a month ago, leads off this week before a big section battle with Rosemount. Can this team make a move?

Roseau (14-4-2)
-While it was impressive that the Rams’ game with Warroad even happened, the ultimate result—a 2-2 tie after a 5-0 win a few weeks earlier—wasn’t a great sign. They did, however, beat Brainerd in a crucial section game, and are now in good position to claim the 2-seed in 8AA, which would mean the benefit of a home semifinal. They face some of 8A’s finest this week in Thief River Falls and East Grand Forks.

Brainerd (13-7)
-A narrow loss to Roseau makes a top-2 seed unlikely for the Warriors, who have a rare four-game week ahead of them. It includes a rescheduled key section game with St. Michael-Albertville, a rematch with a team that beat them earlier in Alexandria, and a test against an elite opponent, Blaine.

Cloquet (12-9)
-The Lumberjacks got pushed to the limit by Forest Lake, but got a valuable win to all but assure themselves the 3-seed in 7AA. Does this team have a legitimate shot at playing for the 7AA championship, or are they just the best of the rest in a down section? Monday’s game with Duluth East will give us the answer.

Buffalo (12-6-2)
-The Bison are back in the top 25 after posting five consecutive shutouts; while they’re not exactly playing a Lake Conference schedule, that’s still a pretty impressive feat. They have a chance to prove they belong up here with games against Blake and St. Michael-Albertville this week.

Lakeville North (11-9)
-The Panthers plod along through the South Suburban, losing to better teams and beating weaker ones. They should add a few more wins against Farmington and Shakopee this week.

Hastings (16-4)
-The Raiders took care of business this past week, and climb back in as other teams fall. The week ahead includes a section game against Rochester Mayo, a legitimate quality test against Hill-Murray, and a decent 1A team in Albert Lea.

Lakeville South (10-8-1)
-The Cougars round out this 1AA pile-up at the back end of the top 25. The tie to Burnsville hurts them a little here, though not a whole lot given that the Blaze aren’t too far behind them. They have a three-game week upcoming, and none of it is easy, as they face Eagan and Duluth East, plus an Eastview team that beat them the first time around.

elliott70
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/3/18

Post by elliott70 » Sun Feb 03, 2019 11:07 am

DEast at 14 - when is the last time you had them that low?

Usthockey13
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/3/18

Post by Usthockey13 » Sun Feb 03, 2019 11:22 am

Last week when they were at 16 :D

elliott70
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/3/18

Post by elliott70 » Sun Feb 03, 2019 12:37 pm

Usthockey13 wrote:
Sun Feb 03, 2019 11:22 am
Last week when they were at 16 :D
OK to clarify - other than this year?

blueblood
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/3/18

Post by blueblood » Sun Feb 03, 2019 12:44 pm

#2AA Blaine vs. karl's current Top 15 & Top 25: 2-2-2 / 2-2-2

#3AA Tonka vs. karl's current Top 15 & Top 25: 10-1-1 / 13-1-1

:roll: #-o [-X :shock: ](*,)
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SpreadOut!
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/3/18

Post by SpreadOut! » Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:15 pm

I agree that Maple Grove is trending in the wrong direction at the wrong time but can’t see them dropping to #9 behind WBL, EP and BSM considering the collective resumes. MG’s 4 losses are to Tonka, Andover (twice) and Blaine (they also beat Blaine). Their tie is to Edina. All MG’s blemishes are against the top 4 teams. It doesn’t really matter in the end as they’ll need to beat Blaine to get to state but their big drop in rankings this week seems off.

Stang5280
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/3/18

Post by Stang5280 » Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:28 pm

blueblood wrote:
Sun Feb 03, 2019 12:44 pm
#2AA Blaine vs. karl's current Top 15 & Top 25: 2-2-2 / 2-2-2

#3AA Tonka vs. karl's current Top 15 & Top 25: 10-1-1 / 13-1-1

:roll: #-o [-X :shock: ](*,)
Rankings involve more than just looking at records and opponents. Recent performance is also a significant component, and during the past few weeks Blaine has decisive wins over MG (5-3) and Andover (8-2, in a real game). So it’s not crazy to have them above Minnetonka, though you could certainly argue for Tonka based on overall performance and schedule strength, as you just did.

karl(east)
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/3/18

Post by karl(east) » Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:51 pm

As Stang says, recent results say a lot, and I'm also catching bits and pieces of many of these teams and passing judgment on their performance using the eye test. In retrospect I may have been a bit harsh on MG, though with some of the games the teams that are now ahead of them have this upcoming week, it could be relatively easy to rectify that next week. In Tonka's case, they've got their shot to reclaim #1 with a win this week. Even if they lose to Edina a second time, I don't think they drop given their win over Andover.

And Elliott, prior to this season, East was certainly out of the top 15 for much of the 14-15 season, and also for a bit in the 15-16 season, I believe. Possibly even in 16-17, though off the top of my head I don't think they quite fell out. It's not all that rare.

WestMetro
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/3/18

Post by WestMetro » Sun Feb 03, 2019 3:45 pm

Still dont quite understand Blaine at 2 instead of Tonka.

But, I will say Richels has definitely overperformed as much as anyone in AA this year, and will likely be a Mr. Hockey finalist next year.

blueblood
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/3/18

Post by blueblood » Mon Feb 04, 2019 9:24 am

WM - neither does bb.

Blaine vs. Andover, EP, Duluth East, and Maple Grove: 2-2-2
Minnetonka vs. Andover, EP, Duluth East and Maple Grove: 5-0-0
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O-townClown
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/3/18

Post by O-townClown » Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:14 pm

blueblood wrote:
Mon Feb 04, 2019 9:24 am
Blaine vs. Andover, EP, Duluth East, and Maple Grove: 2-2-2
Minnetonka vs. Andover, EP, Duluth East and Maple Grove: 5-0-0
This is actually the point in the season that the Happy rankings start to make sense. (Never thought I'd say something like that! LOL)
Be kind. Rewind.

BodyShots
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/3/18

Post by BodyShots » Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:59 pm

O-townClown wrote:
Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:14 pm
blueblood wrote:
Mon Feb 04, 2019 9:24 am
Blaine vs. Andover, EP, Duluth East, and Maple Grove: 2-2-2
Minnetonka vs. Andover, EP, Duluth East and Maple Grove: 5-0-0
This is actually the point in the season that the Happy rankings start to make sense. (Never thought I'd say something like that! LOL)
#-o :lol: :lol: :lol:

HappyHockeyFan
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/3/18

Post by HappyHockeyFan » Mon Feb 04, 2019 8:24 pm

O-townClown wrote:
Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:14 pm
blueblood wrote:
Mon Feb 04, 2019 9:24 am
Blaine vs. Andover, EP, Duluth East, and Maple Grove: 2-2-2
Minnetonka vs. Andover, EP, Duluth East and Maple Grove: 5-0-0
This is actually the point in the season that the Happy rankings start to make sense. (Never thought I'd say something like that! LOL)
YES!! :lol: =D> Take a look at them, I think you will like what you see!
It's not the Best players, it's the Right players! HB

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