Class A Top Twenty - Final Regular Season

[elliott70]

1 Hermantown 7A 20-3-2
2 Mahtomedi 4A 18-6-1
3 St Cloud Cathedral 6A 21-4-0
4 Totino 4A 17-7-0
5 Alexandria 6A 18-5-0

6 East Grand Forks 8A 17-8-0
7 Warroad 8A 13-9-2
8 Thief River Falls 8A 14-8-3
9 Greenway 7A 12-13-0
10 Delano 2A 14-9-2

11 Orono 2A 16-9-0
12 Sartell 6A 17-7-0
13 Monticello 5A 16-8-1
14 Duluth Denfeld 7A 13-8-3
15 Mound 2A 14-10-2

16 Marshall 3A 21-2-1
17 Minnesota River 1A 17-4-0
18 Litchfield 3A 11-11-3
19 North Branch 5A 16-7-2
20 Northfield 4A 15-9-0

Others (in no particular order):
Mankato East 1A 15-9-1
Breck 2A 12-12-0
Albert Lea 1A 15-9-1
Princeton 5A 14-11-0
Lourdes 1A 14-10-0
Chisago Lakes 5A 14-11-0
Virginia 7A 9-15-1
Waconia 2A 12-11-2
Eveleth 7A 12-11-1
Little Falls 6A 13-10-0

[zooomx]

regualr? I was trying to figure out how to pronounce that word and it tied me in knots.

[elliott70]

The French spelling....
or is it the English version...
or is it my inability to type...

[Stang5280]

That's all, folks! The regular season is finished and playoff season is upon us, with 6A and 7A having started the party already with their first round sectional games Saturday night. By now you would think that the rankings would be fairly stable with nearly a season's worth of data points in the books, but the opposite was actually true as I moved teams around more this week than at any point since the holiday tournaments. It's been fun doing these rankings all season, and let's hope for some exciting playoff hockey. I am planning to do a final ranking after the state tournament, FWIW.

[Note: updated to include all QF opponents]

1. Hermantown (20-3-2) (LW 1)
W 5-3 vs Virginia, T 2-2 @ Cloquet, W 5-2 vs Grand Rapids
Not a stellar week by the Hawks' lofty standards, yet they still emerge undefeated and firmly atop the rankings. Hermantown needed a third period comeback to knock off a mediocre Virginia group after going down 3-2 early, and then salvaged a tie against a struggling CEC squad. The Rapids score was also deceiving, as two empty-betters padded the final margin. Hermantown is the one seed in 7A, and a heavy favorite to represent the section at state, but will have to pick up their play to avoid any upsets along their championship march. They start out by hosting Hibbing in the quarterfinals.

2. Mahtomedi (18-6-1) (LW 2)
L 1-2 vs Stillwater, W 4-2 @ Breck, W 9-1 vs Roseville
Similar to Hermantown, the Zephyrs did not have their most impressive week, at least early on, but hold on to their spot in the rankings. They started out the week by mustering only one goal in a loss to an improving Stillwater squad, then fumbled around in the third period and let Breck make things too close for comfort. Mahtomedi closed out the year by ripping poor Roseville to shreds. The Zephyrs are the #2 seed in 4A behind Totino-Grace and face either Gentry or Red Wing in the quarterfinals.

3. St. Cloud Cathedral (21-4-0) (LW 4)
W 6-1 vs Breck, L 5-6 @ Holy Family, W 3-0 vs Monticello
The Crusaders had somewhat of a roller coaster week. Just two days after the tough loss to Mahtomedi, they dispatched Breck with ease, but then turned around the next night and let Holy Family rattle off four straight goals spanning the final two periods, effectively putting the game away despite a late comeback attempt. They had no answer for the Fire's top line. Cathedral put in a workmanlike effort on Friday against Monticello to finish the season, keeping the Moose just out of reach. As the top seed in 6A, the Crusaders will host Breckenridge/Wahpeton in the quarterfinals.

4. Totino-Grace (17-7-0) (LW 2)
L 3-5 vs Centennial, W 5-1 @ Breck
I watched both of the Eagles' games this week and came away nonplussed The loss to Centennial was an ugly affair, as the two teams racked up 22 minor penalties, with 13 whistled on TG. Special teams and defensive lapses killed any shot at victory. The margin over Breck was also deceiving, as the Mustangs controlled play for long stretches, particularly in the third period. The Eagles are very reliant on their talented top two forward groups and goaltending, which isn't necessarily a recipe for consistency. Still, they are the top seed in 4A and unlikely to be challenged until the finals. They start off against Simley or Henry Sibley.

5. Alexandria (18-5-0) (LW 5)
W 4-3 @ St. Cloud
With the cancellation of the Sartell showdown, the Cardinals edged St. Cloud in their final game Tuesday, courtesy of two third period goals. Ben Doherty returning to the lineup was huge, as he netted two goals, including the late tiebreaker. As the third seed in 6A, Alexandria will face Fergus Falls on Tuesday.

6. East Grand Forks (17-8-0) (LW 6)
W 1-0 vs TRF
The Green Wave popped an early goal and managed to make that single tally stand up to break their losing streak. In doing so, they swept the season series against TRF and locked down the top spot in 8A. Next up for EGF is a quarterfinal matchup with Park Rapids or Red Lake Falls.

7. Warroad (13-9-2) (LW 9)
W 7-0 @ Lake of the Woods
In their only game of the week, the Warriors laid waste to Lake of the Woods. There's not much to expound upon regarding that game, but their recent surge, combined with TRF's poor play, has pushed them ahead in the rankings despite losing the season series. Warroad will take on LotW again on the 21st in the #3 vs. #6 game of the 8A quarterfinals.

8. Greenway (12-13-0) (LW 10)
W 5-1 @ I-Falls, W 8-2 vs Eveleth
The Raiders again breezed past two weaker opponents this week without much drama. While the schedule has been much lighter of late, they continue to rise up the rankings simply by avoiding upsets as others falter. Greenway is seeded third in 7A, and hosts North Shore in the quarterfinal round on 2/19.

9. Thief River Falls (14-8-3) (LW 7)
L 0-1 @ EGF, L 1-2 @ Bemidji
The TRF experience was on full display this week, as they only surrendered three goals in two games, yet managed to lose both. The Prowlers have the defense and goaltending to hang around with anyone, but will need more contributions from their offense to have any chance at returning to the X. Speaking of which, TRF is the second seed in 8A and will host the winner of Kittson Central and Bagley/Fosston on 2/21.

10. Orono (16-9-0) [LW 8]
W 8-1 @ Waconia, W 2-0 @ LDC, L 2-3 vs Delano
The Spartans started off the week well enough, walloping Waconia and coming away with a win against LDC. However, the Delano loss is concerning, as they defeated the Tigers by a four goal margin just a few weeks ago, and shows that the road to 2A title might contain some potholes. Thankfully they wouldn't see Delano again until the finals, and start with a quarterfinal matchup against Kennedy or Providence.

11. Monticello (16-8-1) (LW 11)
W 5-4 @ Princeton, L 0-3 @ Cathedral
The Moose started off fast against Princeton with four goals in the first period, but then let the Tigers claw back and had to hold on for the win. Monticello put up a fight versus Cathedral Friday night, and while they couldn't find the back of the net, they kept the outcome in doubt until a late goal. As the top seed in what looks to be a wild 5A bracket, they avoid most of the chaos for a round or two. The Moose host Northern lakes or Becker in the quarterfinals.

12. Sartell-St. Stephen (17-7-0) (LW 13)
W 2-0 vs Little Falls, W 8-1 vs Fergus Falls
Coming off a poor performance against Mankato West, the Sabres toughed out a win against a frisky Little Falls squad, then annihilated Fergus Falls. Sartell snagged the #2 seed in 6A, and plays Prairie Centre, the winner of the preliminary game, on Tuesday.

13. Delano (14-9-2) (LW 16)
W 2-0 vs New Prague, W 3-2 @ Orono, T 3-3 @ Mound
The Tigers pounce into the top 15 after a solid week in which they upset Orono, to split the season series against the Spartans. Prior to the season-ending tie with Mound-Westonka, Delano had won six in a row. After a rough start to the season, this team has been rounding into form at the right time and likely presents the biggest threat to Orono in 2A. Despite rising all the way to the second seed, Delano starts with a potentially problematic game against SWC/Richfield.

14. Duluth Denfeld (13-8-3) (LW 15)
W 4-1 vs Hibbing, W 5-3 @ Duluth Marshall
Denfeld had a good week overall, soundly defeating a Hibbing team that had been playing well, and beating Duluth Marshall for the first time since 2014. For their efforts, the Hunters were voted as the second seed in 7A. They start the playoffs against Ely, the #10 seed who advanced in a mild upset over International Falls.

15. Marshall (21-2–1) (LW 14)
W 3-1 vs Willmar, W 3-1 @ Waseca
The Tigers were less than dominant against two lesser foes, but still managed wins, which is at least enough to keep them in this vicinity of the rankings. The winner of the Willmar/Worthington preliminary game will travel to top-seeded Marshall on Thursday.

Next Five Up (what the heck, let’s rank ‘em):

16. Albert Lea (15-9-1) (LW 20)
W 4-1 vs Red Wing, W 5-4 vs Northfield, L 0-3 @ Mayo

17. Minnesota River (17-4-0) (LW 17)
W 11-1 @ Luverne

18. Mankato East (15-9-1) (LW 12)
L 1-6 vs Owatonna, L 2-6 vs St. Cloud, L 0-4 @ Century

19. Breck (12-13) (LW 18)
L 1-6 @ Cathedral, L 2-4 vs Mahtomedi, L 1-5 vs Totino

20. North Branch (16-7-2) (LW NR)
W 7-0 @ Dodge County, W 6-1 vs Northern Lakes

Out: Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato (LW 19)

A few notes:
- Mankato East takes a tumble after three uncompetitive losses to AA opposition.
- I can't make heads or tails of 1A, hence the cluster of teams at 16 through 18. Albert Lea had the strongest finish to the season, while Mankato East has the most upside. Minnesota River is the wildcard that is hard to judge.
- Breck and North Branch are essentially me throwing up my hands and not finding anyone particularly deserving of the final two spots.
- LDC falls out of the rankings after 2-0 losses to Orono and Waconia. They are definitely an unpredictable group.
- Honorable mentions go to Northfield, LDC, Virginia, Little Falls, and Pine City (in no particular order).
- Even though their season will likely soon be over, Ely's win over International Falls was apparently the first in their program's history, so a special shout-out for that accomplishment.
- Speaking of shout-outs, my partner in crime Elliott deserves one as well. He's an all-around nice guy and a fountain of hockey knowledge.

[Stang5280]

Sectional breakdowns to follow, and I’m sure both of us will chime in. I figure there’s no sense in jumping the gun with speculation just yet until we have matchups set.

[elliott70]

1A
1. Mankato East vs winner 8. Winona vs 9. Waseca
4. Rochester Lourdes vs 5. Mankato West

2. MN River vs winner 7. Austin vs 10. LaCrescent
3. Albert Lea vs 6. Faribault

My prediction:
Semis
East vs West
Mn River vs Albert Lea

Final
East vs MN River

to the X
MN River

[elliott70]

Section 2A
1 Orono vs winner 8 Bloomington Kennedy vs 9 Providence Academy
5 Waconia vs 4 Breck

3 Mound Westonka vs 6 Minneapolis
7 Southwest Christian/Richfield vs 2 Delano

Semis
Orono vs Waconia
Minneapolis vs Delano

Final
Orono vs Delano

to the X
Orono

[elliott70]

Section 3A
1 Marshall vs winner 8 Willmar vs 9 Worthington
5 Hutchinson vs 4 Luverne

2 Litchfield vs winner 7 Redwood Valley vs 10 Fairmont
3 New Ulm vs 6 Windom


Semis
Marshall vs Hutchinson
Litchfield vs New Ulm

Final
Marshall vw Litchfield


To the X
Marshall

[elliott70]

Section 4A
8 Simley vs 9 Henry Sibley winner vs 1 Totino-Grace
5 St. Paul Academy vs 12 St. Paul Highland Park winner vs 4 St. Paul Johnson

6 South St. Paul vs 11 Minnehaha Academy winner vs 3 Northfield
7 Gentry Academy vs 10 Red Wing winner vs 2 Mahtomedi

Semis
St Paul Academy vs Totino
Northfield vs Mahtomedi

Finals
Totino vs Mahtomedi

To the X
Mahtomedi

[elliott70]

Section 5A
8 Northern Lakes vs 9 Becker-Big Lake winner vs 1 Monticello
5 Pine City Area vs 4 Chisago Lakes

6 Sauk Rapids-Rice vs 11 Legacy Christian winner vs 3 Princeton
7 Mora/Milaca vs 10 Moose Lake Area winner vs 2 North Branch

Semis
Monticello vs Chisago Lakes
Princeton vs North Branch

Finals
Chisago Lakes vs North Branch

to the X
North Branch

[MNFinn]

Wow, Elliot isn't a big fan of head to head matchups or Monticello. Delano beat Greenway. If you rank them next to each other, shouldn't Delano be ahead. Then, if Delano, Sartell and Monticello are in the same grouping, shouldn't the 3 goals wins by Monticello over each put them ahead of both.

Hey, to both of you who do these rankings every week - a BIG thank you. I enjoy looking at them and seeing your comments. They are fun to see and occasionally comment on.

[MrBoDangles]

Wow, Elliot isn't a big fan of head to head matchups or Monticello. Delano beat Greenway. If you rank them next to each other, shouldn't Delano be ahead. Then, if Delano, Sartell and Monticello are in the same grouping, shouldn't the 3 goals wins by Monticello over each put them ahead of both.

Hey, to both of you who do these rankings every week - a BIG thank you. I enjoy looking at them and seeing your comments. They are fun to see and occasionally comment on.

Chisago beat Monti by 2 or 3 goals in one of the games... Isn't that head to head? Picks are about going with your gut anyways...

Also pretty sure those two teams don't have the ties and ot games with such weak teams..

[Stang5280]

Wow, Elliot isn't a big fan of head to head matchups or Monticello. Delano beat Greenway. If you rank them next to each other, shouldn't Delano be ahead. Then, if Delano, Sartell and Monticello are in the same grouping, shouldn't the 3 goals wins by Monticello over each put them ahead of both.

Hey, to both of you who do these rankings every week - a BIG thank you. I enjoy looking at them and seeing your comments. They are fun to see and occasionally comment on.

Chisago beat Monti by 2 or 3 goals in one of the games... Isn't that head to head? Picks are about going with your gut anyways...

Also pretty sure those two teams don't have the ties and ot games with such weak teams..

My theory is that you should respect head-to-head results, but not be beholden to them. The passage of time definitely minimizes the impact, as teams change throughout the course of a season. Also, sometimes sports just have fluky results, especially lower scoring ones like hockey where one goal or non-goal has such a big impact.

As an example, Delano just beat Orono and then tied Mound Westonka the next night. How do you sort that out? Should Delano be ranked ahead of Orono? Is Mound as good as both teams? You have to look at their other results and make judgments as to how “legitimate” each of these new data points are. I have watched plenty of Mound hockey this year and know they aren’t a great team, but occasionally can spring up and bite someone, so they are pushed below the other two. Also, Orono has been far more consistent than Delano and has a better overall body of work, so I keep them ahead of Delano despite the loss. It’s definitely an imperfect science and people have different opinions on how to approach rankings.

[MrBoDangles]

Wow, Elliot isn't a big fan of head to head matchups or Monticello. Delano beat Greenway. If you rank them next to each other, shouldn't Delano be ahead. Then, if Delano, Sartell and Monticello are in the same grouping, shouldn't the 3 goals wins by Monticello over each put them ahead of both.

Hey, to both of you who do these rankings every week - a BIG thank you. I enjoy looking at them and seeing your comments. They are fun to see and occasionally comment on.

Chisago beat Monti by 2 or 3 goals in one of the games... Isn't that head to head? Picks are about going with your gut anyways...

Also pretty sure those two teams don't have the ties and ot games with such weak teams..

My theory is that you should respect head-to-head results, but not be beholden to them. The passage of time definitely minimizes the impact, as teams change throughout the course of a season. Also, sometimes sports just have fluky results, especially lower scoring ones like hockey where one goal or non-goal has such a big impact.

As an example, Delano just beat Orono and then tied Mound Westonka the next night. How do you sort that out? Should Delano be ranked ahead of Orono? Is Mound as good as both teams? You have to look at their other results and make judgments as to how “legitimate” each of these new data points are. I have watched plenty of Mound hockey this year and know they aren’t a great team, but occasionally can spring up and bite someone, so they are pushed below the other two. Also, Orono has been far more consistent than Delano and has a better overall body of work, so I keep them ahead of Delano despite the loss. It’s definitely an imperfect science and people have different opinions on how to approach rankings.

I think he was mostly upset that elliot didn't pick Monti to win the section.

[BSUBeaver]

3. St. Cloud Cathedral (21-4-0) (LW 4)
W 6-1 vs Breck, L 5-6 @ Holy Family, W 3-0 vs Monticello
The Crusaders had somewhat of a roller coaster week. Just two days after the tough loss to Mahtomedi, they dispatched Breck with ease, but then turned around the next night and let Holy Family rattle off four straight goals spanning the final two periods, effectively putting the game away despite a late comeback attempt. They had no answer for the Fire's top line. Cathedral put in a workmanlike effort on Friday against Monticello to finish the season, keeping the Moose just out of reach. As the top seed in 6A, the Crusaders will host Wadena in the quarterfinals.

Cathedral will host Breckenridge/Wahpeton, who beay Wadena-Deer Creek 6-3 in the 8/9 hame on Saturday.

[elliott70]

Section 5 is very competitive with solid teams.
Upsets can happen anywhere but this looks looked it could happen because the teams are so close

[elliott70]

Section 5 is very competitive with solid teams.
Upsets can happen anywhere but this looks like it could happen because the teams are so close

[Stang5280]

3. St. Cloud Cathedral (21-4-0) (LW 4)
W 6-1 vs Breck, L 5-6 @ Holy Family, W 3-0 vs Monticello
The Crusaders had somewhat of a roller coaster week. Just two days after the tough loss to Mahtomedi, they dispatched Breck with ease, but then turned around the next night and let Holy Family rattle off four straight goals spanning the final two periods, effectively putting the game away despite a late comeback attempt. They had no answer for the Fire's top line. Cathedral put in a workmanlike effort on Friday against Monticello to finish the season, keeping the Moose just out of reach. As the top seed in 6A, the Crusaders will host Wadena in the quarterfinals.

Cathedral will host Breckenridge/Wahpeton, who beay Wadena-Deer Creek 6-3 in the 8/9 hame on Saturday.

Corrected, thanks. I remember seeing the score last night and noticed that BW won, but for some reason I ended up typing Wadena instead. Oh well, either one ends up being cannon fodder for Cathedral

[Stang5280]

I think he was mostly upset that elliot didn't pick Monti to win the section.

What fun is it if you just pick the favorites?! I have started with my picks, but they are so chalk that I need to rework them. I don’t have nearly enough upsets, which always seem to happen.

Even if Monti does return to state, North Branch is set up for a nice run in 5A, and Elliott may just be a year early.

[Zamman]

SWCR Vs Delano should be interesting. SWCR is pumped to win their first playoff game. But they only have 2 forwards, one Defense and a Super goalie. Getting past him will be the tough part. Last week they were pumped to play Holy Angels. AHA put up 47 shots and got 4 goals. The two goals SWCR got one was a 5 on 3 and the other was a fluke that bounced behind the goalie, I like a number 6 upsetting a number 3, but watch this numer 7 vs number 2

On another note, I hear they have a good group coming in next year so they are going to make some noise.

[elliott70]

SECTION 6A

1 St. Cloud Cathedral VS 9 Breckenridge/Wahpeton
5 River Lakes VS 4 Little Falls

3 Alexandria VS 6 Fergus Falls
7 Prairie Centre VS 2 Sartell-St. Stephen


SEMIS
ST CLOUD CATH VS LITTLE FALLS
ALEX VS SARTELL


FINALS
ST CLOUD CATH VS ALEX

TO THE X
ST CLOUD CATH

[bardown27]

SECTION 6A

1 St. Cloud Cathedral VS 9 Breckenridge/Wahpeton
5 River Lakes VS 4 Little Falls

3 Alexandria VS 6 Fergus Falls
7 Prairie Centre VS 2 Sartell-St. Stephen


SEMIS
ST CLOUD CATH VS LITTLE FALLS
ALEX VS SARTELL


FINALS
ST CLOUD CATH VS ALEX

TO THE X
ST CLOUD CATH

Only disagreement I have is I see River Lakes over Little Falls

[elliott70]

Section 7A
1 Hermantown vs 8 Hibbing/Chisholm
5 Eveleth-Gilbert vs 4 Virginia/Mountain Iron-Buhl

3 Greenway vs 6 North Shore
10 Ely vs 2 Duluth Denfeld

Semis
Hermantown vs Eveleth
Greenway vs Denfeld

Finals
Hermantown vs Denfeld

Tot he X
Hermantown

[elliott70]

Section 8A
1 East Grand Forks vs winner 8 Park Rapids vs 9 Red lake Falls
5 Detroit Lakes vs 4 Crookston

3 Warroad vs 6 Lake of the Woods
2 Thief River Falls vs winner 7 Kittson (Hallock) 10 Bagley

Semis
East Grand Forks vs Crookston
Warroad vs Thief River Falls

Finals
East Grand Forks vs Warroad

Tot he X
East Grand Forks

[elliott70]

So my picks to get the X are:
1 Mn River *
2 Orono
3 Marshall
4 Mahtomedi
5 North Branch *
6 St Cloud Cathedral
7 Hermantown
8 East Grand Forks

* upsets
But looking at it there could be 5 upsets and neither of those being the ones I picked.