AA state tourney seeding

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East Side Pioneer Guy
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy » Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:03 pm

highgloveside wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:43 pm
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:06 am
Based on past performance, WB should be unseeded.

The Bears are only 51 minutes away from Mariucci, which apparently is their favorite place to play in March.
Says the Guy or Gal who's team is cleaning out their Section 4AA home locker room =D>
Seriously? Like WB's tournament past comes close to Hills? Even Stillwater has a better tournament history than WB.

This Hill team wasn't going to do any damage next week any way. It's a good year to let the Bears have a weekend, uh, an afternoon in downtown Saint Paul. The only way WB can spend the weekend in Saint Paul is if consolation gets moved to Tria.Which ain't gonna happen.
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east hockey
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by east hockey » Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:06 pm

Section 8 guy wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:59 pm
Those of you that are applauding Pagestat for getting the seedings right need to take a step back and look at the big picture. It’s pretty much unanimous here that the seedings make no sense, yet they match Pagestat. That tells you pretty much everything you need to know about Pagestat.
PageStat nailed the Single A seeding too other than the SCC/Mahtomedi swap. :mrgreen:

Lee
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northwoods oldtimer
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by northwoods oldtimer » Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:10 pm

East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:03 pm
highgloveside wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:43 pm
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:06 am
Based on past performance, WB should be unseeded.

The Bears are only 51 minutes away from Mariucci, which apparently is their favorite place to play in March.
Says the Guy or Gal who's team is cleaning out their Section 4AA home locker room =D>
Seriously? Like WB's tournament past comes close to Hills? Even Stillwater has a better tournament history than WB.

This Hill team wasn't going to do any damage next week any way. It's a good year to let the Bears have a weekend, uh, an afternoon in downtown Saint Paul. The only way WB can spend the weekend in Saint Paul is if consolation gets moved to Tria.Which ain't gonna happen.
You lost haha!!

mnmouth
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by mnmouth » Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:12 pm

east hockey wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:06 pm
Section 8 guy wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:59 pm
Those of you that are applauding Pagestat for getting the seedings right need to take a step back and look at the big picture. It’s pretty much unanimous here that the seedings make no sense, yet they match Pagestat. That tells you pretty much everything you need to know about Pagestat.
PageStat nailed the Single A seeding too other than the SCC/Mahtomedi swap. :mrgreen:

Lee
PageStat rules! The draw rules!

east hockey
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by east hockey » Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:14 pm

East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:03 pm
highgloveside wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:43 pm
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:06 am
Based on past performance, WB should be unseeded.

The Bears are only 51 minutes away from Mariucci, which apparently is their favorite place to play in March.
Says the Guy or Gal who's team is cleaning out their Section 4AA home locker room =D>
Seriously? Like WB's tournament past comes close to Hills? Even Stillwater has a better tournament history than WB.

This Hill team wasn't going to do any damage next week any way. It's a good year to let the Bears have a weekend, uh, an afternoon in downtown Saint Paul. The only way WB can spend the weekend in Saint Paul is if consolation gets moved to Tria.Which ain't gonna happen.
This reminds me to get the WBL poll set up :mrgreen:

Lee
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WestMetro
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by WestMetro » Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:19 pm

I have lotta respect for PageStat, more than any other statistical model. Rarely has a big outlier, whereas QRF always has a few big outliers.

But this year WBL was an outlier all year long. Lee gave me a lengthy explanation earlier this year on why WBL ranked so low at PS 20+ , with only 4 losses. And curiously that didnt seem to improve much as time went on, whereas STA ends up at PS 6 in his system with 3 losses. Hardly much diff on the W/L record.

Might be helpful to explain that contrast between WBL/STA again, since my intuition is their SOS was not all that much different especially down the stretch in conference play. Perhaps STA margin of victory was consistently higher?

east hockey
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by east hockey » Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:19 pm

Speaking of "the draw", what would the pairings look like if it was still the seven-year rotation in effect way back when?

(7) Duluth East vs (3) St Thomas Academy
(8) Moorhead vs (1) Lakeville South
(5) Blaine vs (6) Eden Prairie
(2) Edina vs (4) White Bear Lake

Lee
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east hockey
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by east hockey » Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:22 pm

WestMetro wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:19 pm
I have lotta respect for PageStat, more than any other statistical model. Rarely has a big outlier, whereas QRF always has a few big outliers.

But this year WBL was an outlier all year long. Lee gave me a lengthy explanation earlier this year on why WBL ranked so low at PS 20+ , with only 4 losses. And curiously that didnt seem to improve much as time went on, whereas STA ends up at PS 6 in his system with 3 losses. Hardly much diff on the W/L record.

Might be helpful to explain that contrast between WBL/STA again, since my intuition is their SOS was not all that much different especially down the stretch in conference play. Perhaps STA margin of victory was consistently higher?
That final sentence pretty much explains it. PageStat is score-based, STA was +100, WBL +57. STA's SOS was also higher, and that spread was even more when those +6 PageStat margin games are tossed out.

Lee
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WestMetro
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by WestMetro » Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:32 pm

I tend to wonder about that a little . I only see Bears a couple times a year , but always seems to me they tend to play a defensive low scoring system so they will always be in the game come the third period . But then again , maybe that’s not the explanation for low goal diff against lower ranked or unranked opponents , which I never see . Maybe Zach H can offer insight

DadsMoney
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by DadsMoney » Sat Mar 02, 2019 5:11 pm

Is KSTP going to have free stream this year or do you still have to pay?

hockey59
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by hockey59 » Sat Mar 02, 2019 5:26 pm

West Metro my good friend & colleague...Did WBL beat (a few) of the weaker teams on their schedule 13-0 like STA beat Henry Sibley? It’s likely that simple (the difference) in how these two teams ranked on Pagestat..a great tool no doubt...but like all computers, lacking a human eye...which takes into account raw data...along with critical intangible factors 🥅

deacon
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by deacon » Sat Mar 02, 2019 5:53 pm

Lee - I haven't seen DE play at all and I've only seen my Cadets play once. Whats your take on the game?

northwoods oldtimer
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by northwoods oldtimer » Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:11 pm

Proof hockey is a snob white collar rich mans sport!

No more miracle runs from the 'Cinderella story' team outta nowhere.

(7) Duluth East vs (3) St Thomas Academy
(8) Moorhead vs (1) Lakeville South

(5) Blaine vs (6) Eden Prairie
(2) Edina
vs (4) White Bear Lake

What a shame Hill didn't make it. Would have made for a real edge of your seat tournament.

BORING same teams every flipping year!!!

Spice this AA beeeeoooch up with some Tier 2 will ya already

MSHSL could care less as long as the lemmings (none of the aficionados here of course) keep cranking the turnstiles.

GO BEARS!!!

GO BENGALS

Stang5280
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by Stang5280 » Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:21 pm

hockey59 wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 5:26 pm
West Metro my good friend & colleague...Did WBL beat (a few) of the weaker teams on their schedule 13-0 like STA beat Henry Sibley? It’s likely that simple (the difference) in how these two teams ranked on Pagestat..a great tool no doubt...but like all computers, lacking a human eye...which takes into account raw data...along with critical intangible factors 🥅
PageStat has a goal cap of six goals, so those games for STA are thrown out in calculating their rating. This does have the side effect of increasing strength of schedule, but blowout games do not count toward the overall rating.

Section 8 guy
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by Section 8 guy » Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:24 pm

east hockey wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:06 pm
Section 8 guy wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:59 pm
Those of you that are applauding Pagestat for getting the seedings right need to take a step back and look at the big picture. It’s pretty much unanimous here that the seedings make no sense, yet they match Pagestat. That tells you pretty much everything you need to know about Pagestat.
PageStat nailed the Single A seeding too other than the SCC/Mahtomedi swap. :mrgreen:

Lee
Pagestat didn’t nail anything. Matching a result that is inaccurate only shows that the system itself is flawed, probably mostly because of the goal differential issue pointed out above. The pretty much unanimous opinion that the seedings don’t make sense only supports that.

SEC Scotty
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by SEC Scotty » Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:29 pm

East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:06 am
Based on past performance, WB should be unseeded.

The Bears are only 51 minutes away from Mariucci, which apparently is their favorite place to play in March.
Sounds like sour grapes east side. Lechner can get a jump on recruiting next years group of ringers. Had to laugh at the lady waiting for people to arrive on the south side of the arena. Someone finally told her she was on the wrong side.😎

WestMetro
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by WestMetro » Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:59 pm

Not to beat a dead horse, but looking at Bears schedule some more, their 4 losses were to as tough teams as anyone: Deast, Tonka, Andover, Edina. I was at the Tonka game and saw them claw their way back in the 3rd to lose by only 1. Not a single loss to a team lower than 12. On the win side, they had 2 blowouts against MV, but margins against other unrankeds were pretty modest, specially Woodbury and Flake . Nevertheless, they got the job done. They had decent wins against CEC, Hill, CDH and Still. Yes, strength of schedule nowhere near EP, but IMHO they should have had the 4/5 game against EP instead of the unseeded game against Blaine. My alma mater Deast by contrast was embarrassingly up and down like a yoyo after Christmas, with several inexcusable losses, and did not deserve to be seeded due to inconsistency and underachievement. Bears exactly the opposite, starting at beginning of year after graduating huge senior talent and losing Gallatin, and I dont think many pundits had them in top 15-20. No one overperformed this season more than the Bears. Having said all that, should be a good game against the Bengals, and their chances of advancing with an upset are much better than South or Moorhead IMHO. If they beat Blaine, they will have the same semi against EP that they should have had in the qtrs, so I guess anything could happen. I look forward to seeing the Orange Nation at the X again and could very much enjoy their first win, although that BRH trio for Bengals is pretty special too.
Last edited by WestMetro on Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Duluthguy
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by Duluthguy » Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:19 pm

Section 8 guy wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:45 pm
My understanding is there isn’t a coaches call for the State Tourney. That they just submit votes.

In Section 8 the coaches seeding votes are made public. Are the State Tourney votes public. Would just be interesting to see how it played out.
The StarTrib/Hub has an article online about the seedings, including a paragraph about the process:

“Each head coach cast electronic votes for the other seven qualifying teams. The highest and lowest votes for each team were excluded and the five teams with the lowest overall scores were awarded seeds. The remaining three teams were placed by blind draw.”

The entire article is here:
https://www.mnhockeyhub.com/news_articl ... sable=true

WestMetro
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by WestMetro » Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:34 pm

Here is the original article, and the fan tirade comments at the end of the article pretty much mirrors all the comments in this six page thread.

https://www.mnhockeyhub.com/news_article/show/1000250

northwoods oldtimer
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by northwoods oldtimer » Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:10 pm

Pagestat analyze all you want this AA is getting old and tired. Same teams year after year after year after year.
BORING!!!!!!

If you are a hockey fan you are pulling for the BEARS or the BENGALS. =D> =D> =D>

northwoods oldtimer
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by northwoods oldtimer » Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:16 pm

Duluthguy wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:19 pm
Section 8 guy wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:45 pm
My understanding is there isn’t a coaches call for the State Tourney. That they just submit votes.

In Section 8 the coaches seeding votes are made public. Are the State Tourney votes public. Would just be interesting to see how it played out.
The StarTrib/Hub has an article online about the seedings, including a paragraph about the process:

“Each head coach cast electronic votes for the other seven qualifying teams. The highest and lowest votes for each team were excluded and the five teams with the lowest overall scores were awarded seeds. The remaining three teams were placed by blind draw.”

The entire article is here:
https://www.mnhockeyhub.com/news_articl ... sable=true
PATHETIC!!!!

It's a rigged MSHSL system. I am DONE giving these clowns my hard earned cash! D-O-N-E!!!

DadsMoney
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by DadsMoney » Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:52 pm

Are people usually this fussy about the seedings? Gonna be great hockey in every game aside from LVS-EP.

east hockey
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by east hockey » Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:33 pm

Section 8 guy wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:24 pm
east hockey wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:06 pm
Section 8 guy wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:59 pm
Those of you that are applauding Pagestat for getting the seedings right need to take a step back and look at the big picture. It’s pretty much unanimous here that the seedings make no sense, yet they match Pagestat. That tells you pretty much everything you need to know about Pagestat.
PageStat nailed the Single A seeding too other than the SCC/Mahtomedi swap. :mrgreen:

Lee
Pagestat didn’t nail anything. Matching a result that is inaccurate only shows that the system itself is flawed, probably mostly because of the goal differential issue pointed out above. The pretty much unanimous opinion that the seedings don’t make sense only supports that.
(yawn)

Lee
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goldy313
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by goldy313 » Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:50 pm

In A Greenway was seeded, it seems in sections record matters, at state not so much.

I hated seeding when it started and it seems every year I miss the predetermined draw more and more. Sure on a rare occasion you might have the “top” two teams play each other but you avoided the farce of seeding teams like EP and Greenway based solely on the last weeks results.

east hockey
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by east hockey » Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:58 pm

goldy313 wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:50 pm
In A Greenway was seeded, it seems in sections record matters, at state not so much.

I hated seeding when it started and it seems every year I miss the predetermined draw more and more. Sure on a rare occasion you might have the “top” two teams play each other but you avoided the farce of seeding teams like EP and Greenway based solely on the last weeks results.
The pre-determined draw, as it existed, would result in these quarterfinal matchups in Class A:

(3) New Ulm vs (7) Greenway
(8) East Grand Forks vs (1) Minnesota River
(5) North Branch vs (6) St Cloud Cathedral
(2) Delano vs (4) Mahtomedi

I don't see a particular close game in the quarterfinals, but how much fun would the semis and finals be?!

Lee
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