AA state tourney seeding

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goldy313
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by goldy313 » Sat Mar 02, 2019 11:19 pm

Assuming the same section matchups in AA...

(3) STA vs (7) Duluth East
(8) Moorhead vs (1) Lakeville South
(5) Blaine vs (6) Edina
(2) Eden Praire vs (4) White Bear Lake

Blaine and Edina meet but at least in prime time.

Greenway had all of zero good wins, had a losing record prior to last week. AND lost to Delano!

Eden Prairie didn’t even have to beat Minnetonka and they get a #3 seed because they beat Blaine?

I agree, MN River could give EGF a game.

LASERBLUE135
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by LASERBLUE135 » Sat Mar 02, 2019 11:23 pm

If you really look into it. Moorhead is the team that got “screwed” the most. They were certainly deserving of a seed. Played great down the stretch and were very competitive with the toughest teams in the state. Had some bad loses to odd teams, but you could certainly say the same with seeded EP and DE. Their overall body of work is as good as DE and EP.

If Moorhead is seeded their road to the title is MUCH easier potentially. Being unranked forces them to take on the clear #1 Edina. Instead of any other team in the tournament.

East Side Pioneer Guy
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy » Sun Mar 03, 2019 7:13 am

The Bears are only 51 minutes away from Mariucci, which apparently is their favorite place to play in March.
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Sounds like sour grapes east side. Lechner can get a jump on recruiting next years group of ringers. Had to laugh at the lady waiting for people to arrive on the south side of the arena. Someone finally told her she was on the wrong side.😎
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Hill-Murray accomplished more in it's first state tournament game than White Bear has since 1945.

Hope the Bears fans enjoy Thursday afternoon. And if you want to get rid of those consolation tickets, offer them to someone in the WB section during the 3rd period.

greenwayraider
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by greenwayraider » Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:06 am

goldy313 wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 11:19 pm
Assuming the same section matchups in AA...

(3) STA vs (7) Duluth East
(8) Moorhead vs (1) Lakeville South
(5) Blaine vs (6) Edina
(2) Eden Praire vs (4) White Bear Lake

Blaine and Edina meet but at least in prime time.

Greenway had all of zero good wins, had a losing record prior to last week. AND lost to Delano!

Eden Prairie didn’t even have to beat Minnetonka and they get a #3 seed because they beat Blaine?

I agree, MN River could give EGF a game.
I’m a firm believer that head-to-head should carry the most weight and I would have voted for Delano to be the #4 seed. However Greenway did have two good wins in Alexandria and Hermantown. The best other good win for Delano is Orono. Not a strong resume either.

Usthockey13
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by Usthockey13 » Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:32 am

DadsMoney wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 5:11 pm
Is KSTP going to have free stream this year or do you still have to pay?
Looks like it will be streamed for free online with Channel
45 and consolation round on prepspotlight

StanleyCup55
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by StanleyCup55 » Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:50 am

Was just looking at the tourney again and can’t help but think that it looks like they had the section pre-seeded again like the old days with that EP-South game.

Just wanted to call out the BS again today. So blatantly obvious that there is corruption. It’s funny how we want kids to stay in MN and finish HS yet we let things like this happen. Not helping the situation.

Why in tarnation would they let the coaches vote? To me that is like having presidential candidates vote for who they think should be in office and not the people. Coaches should have absolutely no say in seedlings not even in sections. It’s beyond my realm of thinking that anyone thinks this is a good idea.

It shouldn’t be hard to have a committee that can honestly look at teams schedules/results without bias and put together a fair ranking for the tourney.

HappyHockeyFan
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by HappyHockeyFan » Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:06 pm

Well not that it matters obviously but this is how my ranking formula would have seeded the AA tournament and I think it would have been a nice quarterfinal round with some interesting possible semi-final matchups:

2 Blaine
7 White Bear Lake

3 Moorhead
6 Duluth East

1 Edina
8 Lakeville South

4 Eden Prairie
5 St Thomas Academy
It's not the Best players, it's the Right players! HB

Slap Shot
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by Slap Shot » Mon Mar 04, 2019 11:51 am

Section 8 guy wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:59 pm
Those of you that are applauding Pagestat for getting the seedings right need to take a step back and look at the big picture. It’s pretty much unanimous here that the seedings make no sense, yet they match Pagestat. That tells you pretty much everything you need to know about Pagestat.
Would people be freaking out as much if LS and Moorhead were swapped?

WBL had a nice record but how many quality wins do they have against the 29th rated SOS? They beat HM2x by Hill had the 24th rated SOS. They lost by 3 to DE, by 3 to Andover and by 5 to Edina. They played closer against a Tonka team that was in a downward spiral since HDM. Their resume just isn't impressive in the least.

The only complaints should come from Edina (not getting LS) and from STA and DE not getting the 3 and 4. After than it's a crapshoot 5-7.

hockey59
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by hockey59 » Mon Mar 04, 2019 12:33 pm

Slap Shot wrote:
Mon Mar 04, 2019 11:51 am
Section 8 guy wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:59 pm
Those of you that are applauding Pagestat for getting the seedings right need to take a step back and look at the big picture. It’s pretty much unanimous here that the seedings make no sense, yet they match Pagestat. That tells you pretty much everything you need to know about Pagestat.
Would people be freaking out as much if LS and Moorhead were swapped?

WBL had a nice record but how many quality wins do they have against the 29th rated SOS? They beat HM2x by Hill had the 24th rated SOS. They lost by 3 to DE, by 3 to Andover and by 5 to Edina. They played closer against a Tonka team that was in a downward spiral since HDM. Their resume just isn't impressive in the least.

The only complaints should come from Edina (not getting LS) and from STA and DE not getting the 3 and 4. After than it's a crapshoot 5-7.
DE lost to Brainerd, Champlin Park, Prior Lake, Moorhead (like 5-0) Andover & Tonka...they didn’t deserve to be seeded, but were the best of the unseeded teams. STA should of been seeded #3. In other words, STA & DE were destined to play this year 😉 but the game should have been the 2nd afternoon session game instead of the 2nd evening session game ☝️🥅

That guy for that thing
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by That guy for that thing » Mon Mar 04, 2019 1:11 pm

hockey59 wrote:
Mon Mar 04, 2019 12:33 pm
Slap Shot wrote:
Mon Mar 04, 2019 11:51 am
Section 8 guy wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:59 pm
Those of you that are applauding Pagestat for getting the seedings right need to take a step back and look at the big picture. It’s pretty much unanimous here that the seedings make no sense, yet they match Pagestat. That tells you pretty much everything you need to know about Pagestat.
Would people be freaking out as much if LS and Moorhead were swapped?

WBL had a nice record but how many quality wins do they have against the 29th rated SOS? They beat HM2x by Hill had the 24th rated SOS. They lost by 3 to DE, by 3 to Andover and by 5 to Edina. They played closer against a Tonka team that was in a downward spiral since HDM. Their resume just isn't impressive in the least.

The only complaints should come from Edina (not getting LS) and from STA and DE not getting the 3 and 4. After than it's a crapshoot 5-7.
DE lost to Brainerd, Champlin Park, Prior Lake, Moorhead (like 5-0) Andover & Tonka...they didn’t deserve to be seeded, but were the best of the unseeded teams. STA should of been seeded #3. In other words, STA & DE were destined to play this year 😉 but the game should have been the 2nd afternoon session game instead of the 2nd evening session game ☝️🥅
I dont think its just cut and dry that Moorhead should have been over DE. Moorhead did lose to Wayzata 5-0 and DE beat Wayzata. Moorhead also lost to Roseau.

Also, how many times does it need to be repeated that Randolph doesn't care about team wins and losses during the regular season? He tinkers with his liens all year. For the first 17-20 games of the season, he has different lines every night. There is no way that the DE from Jan 19th is the same team as right now. No way in hell.

And EP over STA. STA is 0-1-1 to teams in the tournament. They don't have a very tough schedule, and that's a whole other discussion, but they haven't beaten a team in the tournament so far this year. EP, on the other hand, is 2-3-2 against tournament teams, with all 3 losses coming to Edina. explain to me how they should be below a team they tied, and that same team has only beaten 1 top 10 teams and is 1-2-1 in total top 10 games. I have no clue how they are 3 in the rankings on Hockey hub. Play someone that you don't beat 15/16-0.

hockey59
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by hockey59 » Mon Mar 04, 2019 1:40 pm

I really dont care if STA & EP were flipped, but DE lost decisively to Moorhead head to head in a January game that wasn’t a throw away game, despite the mad scientists experimentation. Accordingly, to win State, DE will likely need to beat the top 3 seeds (to do it). That seems only fitting...when the mad scientist doesn’t prioritize regular season wins & losses 😉

elliott70
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by elliott70 » Mon Mar 04, 2019 1:46 pm

In Bemidji the student body chants "We hate Moorhead" even when they are not playing Moorhead.

Come Thursday I will be cheering for Moorhead, we hate Edina more.

And STA, also, so go Hounds.

Oh, and go WBL because it is time to move beyond the QF game.

Green and White Fan
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by Green and White Fan » Mon Mar 04, 2019 3:39 pm

Duluth East seeded above Moorhead is wrong. I am old school, I miss the predetermined quarter final rotation. That takes the bias out of it. So on a rare occasion you see the state championship game in the quarter final round. You still got to see it!
We've got 7 yes we do, we've got 7, how about you!

East Side Pioneer Guy
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy » Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:56 pm

elliott70 wrote:
Mon Mar 04, 2019 1:46 pm

Come Thursday I will be cheering for Moorhead, we hate Edina more.

And STA, also, so go Hounds.
DEast: L'Edina del Norte.

CakeScout17
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by CakeScout17 » Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:02 pm

East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:56 pm
elliott70 wrote:
Mon Mar 04, 2019 1:46 pm

Come Thursday I will be cheering for Moorhead, we hate Edina more.

And STA, also, so go Hounds.
DEast: L'Edina del Norte.

ESPG! YOU are the sine qua non of the truth...!

East Side Pioneer Guy
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy » Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:41 pm

CakeScout17 wrote:
Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:02 pm
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:56 pm
elliott70 wrote:
Mon Mar 04, 2019 1:46 pm

Come Thursday I will be cheering for Moorhead, we hate Edina more.

And STA, also, so go Hounds.
DEast: L'Edina del Norte.

ESPG! YOU are the sine qua non of the truth...!
Yeah, I get that all the time.

mnmouth
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by mnmouth » Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:48 pm

East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:41 pm
CakeScout17 wrote:
Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:02 pm
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:56 pm


DEast: L'Edina del Norte.

ESPG! YOU are the sine qua non of the truth...!
Yeah, I get that all the time.
Bravo! =D>

green4
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by green4 » Thu Mar 07, 2019 1:33 pm

I think the issue with the seeding process is that they don't rank all eight teams. It is easy to notice that EP is ranked too high, but if they ranked all eight teams then EP would probably be playing Moorhead in this scenario, which would be a good game and maybe the game you were meant to see in the 4 vs 5 game.
They will probably always have a team in the wrong spot, but it really only becomes a problem when a team in ranked a bit too high gets lucky and gets what everyone basically agrees would be the eight seed.

This year you could make an argument on where to rank EP, STA, Moorhead and Duluth East, maybe even WBL but if you ranked all eight teams then I think you would have a really good 3 v 6 game and a 4 v 5.

East Side Pioneer Guy
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy » Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:40 am

Well the world looks different in hindsight, does it not?

But first, the seeding conspiracy theory. For many seasons the conspiracy was that MSHSL secretly seeding the tourney 1 - 8. Remember that? I never got that one. There is no reason to conspire unless there is a benefit to conspirators. And that conspiracy was of no benefit to the MSHSL; they could have just changed it to 1 - 8 if they wanted. But at any rate, that theory seems to have been put to rest, at least for the time being.

From my perspective, I saw several teams that didn't have many quality wins at all, and didn't play a lot of games against tournament teams. That made comparisons difficult. It also looked like several of the teams could be thrown in a hat. The quarter finals were all reasonably close games this year, which bears that out. I think there are a lot of years that that Blaine squad doesn't get a #2 seed, the beneficiaries of a couple of sectional upsets.

So was it wildly inaccurate to rank EP #3? Doesn't seem like it, they gave the #1 seed a better game than anyone else, by far.

Those who swore off the tournament because of a seeding charade (which I pronounce "sha-rod" to sound annoyingly intellectual) may be having a slice of humble pie for breakfast today.

hockey59
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by hockey59 » Sun Mar 10, 2019 8:42 am

East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:40 am
Well the world looks different in hindsight, does it not?

But first, the seeding conspiracy theory. For many seasons the conspiracy was that MSHSL secretly seeding the tourney 1 - 8. Remember that? I never got that one. There is no reason to conspire unless there is a benefit to conspirators. And that conspiracy was of no benefit to the MSHSL; they could have just changed it to 1 - 8 if they wanted. But at any rate, that theory seems to have been put to rest, at least for the time being.

From my perspective, I saw several teams that didn't have many quality wins at all, and didn't play a lot of games against tournament teams. That made comparisons difficult. It also looked like several of the teams could be thrown in a hat. The quarter finals were all reasonably close games this year, which bears that out. I think there are a lot of years that that Blaine squad doesn't get a #2 seed, the beneficiaries of a couple of sectional upsets.

So was it wildly inaccurate to rank EP #3? Doesn't seem like it, they gave the #1 seed a better game than anyone else, by far.

Those who swore off the tournament because of a seeding charade (which I pronounce "sha-rod" to sound annoyingly intellectual) may be having a slice of humble pie for breakfast today.
Just cause they did random draw it THIS YEAR doesn’t mean the pairings weren’t manipulated in a few of the previous 5-6 seasons, simply comparing how things got seeded in those years to “statistical” probability tells even us common folk that the way things came out (in some of those years) was statistically...highly improbable ☝️

dherman8
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by dherman8 » Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:48 am

East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:40 am
Well the world looks different in hindsight, does it not?

But first, the seeding conspiracy theory. For many seasons the conspiracy was that MSHSL secretly seeding the tourney 1 - 8. Remember that? I never got that one. There is no reason to conspire unless there is a benefit to conspirators. And that conspiracy was of no benefit to the MSHSL; they could have just changed it to 1 - 8 if they wanted. But at any rate, that theory seems to have been put to rest, at least for the time being.

From my perspective, I saw several teams that didn't have many quality wins at all, and didn't play a lot of games against tournament teams. That made comparisons difficult. It also looked like several of the teams could be thrown in a hat. The quarter finals were all reasonably close games this year, which bears that out. I think there are a lot of years that that Blaine squad doesn't get a #2 seed, the beneficiaries of a couple of sectional upsets.

So was it wildly inaccurate to rank EP #3? Doesn't seem like it, they gave the #1 seed a better game than anyone else, by far.

Those who swore off the tournament because of a seeding charade (which I pronounce "sha-rod" to sound annoyingly intellectual) may be having a slice of humble pie for breakfast today.
I will no doubt get ripped for saying this, but the seedings were still off going in. Hindsight is always 20/20, but like everyone was saying before the tournament started, EP ended up with an easy draw in which they were very close to playing in Mariucchi on Friday after they could have very well lost to the "weakest" team in the draw. If you want to say EP deserved it going in, then you also have to say Lakeville South was better than Moorhead and WBL. Moorhead also gave Edina a game. Props to everything the EP kids did, I sure never saw it coming. Very impressive to come out and handle Blaine the way they did and the fight they took to Edina. Hindsight doesn't do it in this case though. They almost fell to the team that was consensus number 8 of 8, dominated Blaine, then finally gave a team that whooped them 3 previous times a game. 25% is not a good average in anything though (0% win) and even with how EP played against Edina it always seemed like Edina just wouldn't lose that game.

East Side Pioneer Guy
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy » Sun Mar 10, 2019 11:05 am

dherman8 wrote:
Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:48 am
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:40 am
I will no doubt get ripped for saying this, but the seedings were still off going in. Hindsight is always 20/20, but like everyone was saying before the tournament started, EP ended up with an easy draw in which they were very close to playing in Mariucchi on Friday after they could have very well lost to the "weakest" team in the draw. If you want to say EP deserved it going in, then you also have to say Lakeville South was better than Moorhead and WBL. Moorhead also gave Edina a game. Props to everything the EP kids did, I sure never saw it coming. Very impressive to come out and handle Blaine the way they did and the fight they took to Edina. Hindsight doesn't do it in this case though. They almost fell to the team that was consensus number 8 of 8, dominated Blaine, then finally gave a team that whooped them 3 previous times a game. 25% is not a good average in anything though (0% win) and even with how EP played against Edina it always seemed like Edina just wouldn't lose that game.
Did we see the same championship game? The one where Edina couldn't do squat for 34 minutes, and were only in the game because of their goalie? They were lucky they only dug themselves a one goal hole.

So who played Edina better when it counted most? Moorhead or EP? I see one quality win for Moorhead (DEast), and a whooping by EP. There just weren't many quality wins by EP, Moorhead, WBL, Lake S, or STA. EP did beat Blaine 7-6.

As far as EP barely surviving Lake South, I've seen a lot of championship teams need OT in the quarters and still win the whole thing.

I think seeding-wise it was just an odd year. It could easily have gone a different way.

dherman8
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by dherman8 » Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:10 pm

East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Sun Mar 10, 2019 11:05 am
dherman8 wrote:
Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:48 am
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:40 am
I will no doubt get ripped for saying this, but the seedings were still off going in. Hindsight is always 20/20, but like everyone was saying before the tournament started, EP ended up with an easy draw in which they were very close to playing in Mariucchi on Friday after they could have very well lost to the "weakest" team in the draw. If you want to say EP deserved it going in, then you also have to say Lakeville South was better than Moorhead and WBL. Moorhead also gave Edina a game. Props to everything the EP kids did, I sure never saw it coming. Very impressive to come out and handle Blaine the way they did and the fight they took to Edina. Hindsight doesn't do it in this case though. They almost fell to the team that was consensus number 8 of 8, dominated Blaine, then finally gave a team that whooped them 3 previous times a game. 25% is not a good average in anything though (0% win) and even with how EP played against Edina it always seemed like Edina just wouldn't lose that game.
Did we see the same championship game? The one where Edina couldn't do squat for 34 minutes, and were only in the game because of their goalie? They were lucky they only dug themselves a one goal hole.

So who played Edina better when it counted most? Moorhead or EP? I see one quality win for Moorhead (DEast), and a whooping by EP. There just weren't many quality wins by EP, Moorhead, WBL, Lake S, or STA. EP did beat Blaine 7-6.

As far as EP barely surviving Lake South, I've seen a lot of championship teams need OT in the quarters and still win the whole thing.

I think seeding-wise it was just an odd year. It could easily have gone a different way.
We no doubt saw the same game. I gave EP credit for what they did the first two periods, but why is no one mentioning that Edina may have just expected to come in and stomp EP again being they did it 3 times already this year. I think there was something there that kept Edina flat for a while along with EP's play. After you absolutely destroy a team 3 times and have to get up to play them again, I could see that being tough, even in a championship. (Insert ripping here)

You are making all the cases in hindsight. Going into this tournament STA, DE, Moorhead, and WBL all had as good of cases for the 3 seed as EP if not better. Your argument is like saying Virginia college basketball last year lost to a 16 seed in the first round so they should've been what, a 10 seed? Should've Loyola been a 2 seed? Switching gears should've Mahtomedi been a 3 or 4 seed? No way!

I do agree with you seeding wise if any other one of those teams were seeded differently the whole tournament would've been drastically different. I am just saying in tournaments like these you can't look in hindsight.

East Side Pioneer Guy
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy » Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:21 pm

When it was seeded 1 - 4 and all the seeds lost in the first round, there was a lot of carping about what a joke seeding is. Seeding is an estimate of the relative strength of the teams involved, and is supposed to be predictive. #1 finished 1, #2 finished 3, #3 finished 2, #4 finished 4, #5 finished 5. It's tough to get much better than that. Two unseeded teams went two and out, the other went 1-2. The top 4 survived the first round.

I'm just glad we will no longer hear about the "they really secretly seed it 1 -8" conspiracy again. Well at least for another year any way.

Section 8 guy
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by Section 8 guy » Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:30 am

The answer is no. That a batch of close games went a certain way doesn't change that the original seedlings based on an entire seasons body of work were flawed.

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