AA state tourney seeding

[That guy for that thing]

We don't have to speculate on the #5 being Moorhead or Duluth East...back on Jan. 19 the Spuds shutout the 'Hounds, 4-0.

By this standard, DEast right next to Blaine and EP then so Moorhead should get the 3 seed. That cant happen because EP Thumped Moorhead 6-1.

[Doc Holliday]

Eden Prairie will be seeded.

Defeated both Blaine & Moorhead.

The teams people have above them would most likely have 5 additional losses if they played EP's schedule.

I anticipate them in the 4/5 game; I won't be surprised if they're the 3. Being a Lake Conference team playing a Lake Conference schedule holds weight in the coaches eyes.

[dueling21]

We don't have to speculate on the #5 being Moorhead or Duluth East...back on Jan. 19 the Spuds shutout the 'Hounds, 4-0.

By this standard, DEast right next to Blaine and EP then so Moorhead should get the 3 seed. That cant happen because EP Thumped Moorhead 6-1.

It wasn't a debate amongst anyone else, though, just Moorhead vs. Duluth East for the #5 seed. By that standard, we can use head-to-head (unless, of course, the rest of the body of work is contrary to that head-to-head result).

Once we factor in more teams to the mix, then the head-to-head gets a bit dicier because of the wins-losses amongst each (including that big EP victory over Moorhead, East's tie to Blaine, etc., etc.).

[Doc Holliday]

Regarding Moorhead/Duluth East. I think there's a case for both sides.

Moorhead: Head to Head win.
Duluth East: Different team this point in the season; credit for high ranking win over Andover.

I've made the case that EP should be no worse than the #4.

Question is: would Moorhead & Duluth East really care if they're the #5 or "the # 6" seed, if they really do just seed the bottom 3 & just don't tell anyone? No easier of a game against St. Thomas Academy than Eden Prairie, and you'd be on the opposite side of the bracket from Edina.

[GoldenBear]

Is it really a random draw for unseeded teams vs 1,2 and 3 matchups? I believe they say it is...but.... Lakeville will play Edina. GB

[That guy for that thing]

1) Edina, that's a gimme
2) Blaine, as close to a gimme as possible but tied DEast the day after DE lost to Champlain Park. This will be needed later
3) STA, seems to be the best spot. Blaine is flat out better but STA could give them a scare come semis if both move on
4)EP, A good thumping of Moorhead, they tied STA at the beginning of they year but then had some losses they shouldn't have had against teams like Blake and Stillwater. The Chaska loss at the beginning if the year was odd, but they got Chaska back in sections
5)DE, This is the most difficult as Moorhead shut them out but Moorhead lost to EP, Wayzata and WBL. DE beat Wayzata 3-2 but Wayzata beat Moorhead 5-0, and tied EP. The win over WBL helps if WBL wins tonight, but not so much if Hill wins. The Tie to Blaine also helps DE for a claim at 5. If Hill wins, it makes it a lot tighter, and I would not be surprised to see Moorhead get the 5, but I still think DE should get it.

Moorhead, all of the above
WBL/Hill, neither tea. Has any super big statement games with any team above that is beneficial for them. Hill split the season series with STA but a loss to Moorehead brings them down below. WBL has not beat anyone besides hill on this list. Sadly their Blaine game was canceled as that would have been helpful if it was a W or tie but Blaine has been so good of late that I dont see WBL pulling it out.
LSouth, they have only played 2 teams above and lost both games. No statement wins but a 1-0 loss to Hermantown to begin the season. If we ranked all 8 I could see LSouth maybe about WBL but with no discernable way to easily compare the 2, I'm glad we dont rank them all.

Should be a fun weekend, as we all know anything can happen to anybody, especially if LSouth plays a 1 seed, I'm looking at you Justin Kloos.

[northwoods oldtimer]

WBL, if they make it, could get seed over EP and Moorhead. Currently ranked higher. Tough call, though, on who is odd man out of those three. Duluth East beat WBL but had some questionable losses so likely won’t be seeded. But DE will be tough opening round opponent for whoever draws them.

Love me some East - STA Quarter. So does Danny!

None of this please - my coworker's cousin was on that Hounds team and I still haven't heard the end of that loss.

That was a big upset for sure

[WestMetro]

CakeScout

Guessing at this point that Deast and Edina will set up in opposite brackets, so could shape up to be heckof a final if they both make it through. Would be a repeat of the 1997 championship game where Dan Carlson won it for the Hornets in a 1-0 game. And Randolph is the only coach with a winning record against Edina in State Tourney action.

[yesiplayedhockey]

I'm going with

Edina Vs LS (assuming politics pick LS as the 8 seed)

EP vs DE (4 vs 5)

Moorhead vs STA (6 vs 3)

Hill (predicting they win) vs Blaine (7 vs 2)

Or you could flip flop Hill and Moorhead

Can someone educate me is the 6,7,8 seeds truly a random draw or is it decided in a dark secluded room somewhere

[Doc Holliday]

Looking at it, ever since they switched to the top-5 being seeded, it seems as if they likelihood of the 1 playing "8" has been higher, but something that seems to be more recent.

2018: Tonka vs. Hill-Murray (HM was 13-11, LVN was 16-10, STMA was 23-5)
2017: EP vs. Wayzata (Wayzata was 10-17-1. Regardless of their schedule, that record cannot be justified over the other teams involved)
2016: EP vs. Anoka (Anoka 18-9, Farmington 18-8-1, Burnsville 16-10-2). Perhaps B'Ville should have been the 7. I'm guessing their schedule was more difficult than Anoka's, along with a better section win over STA)

Before that,
2015: Duluth East probably should have been the 8 over Hill-Murray, Bemidji was definitely the highest rated of the unseeded & they got #2 Edina)
2014: Stillwater probably was the 8, they got #1 Edina.
2013: Lakeville North should have been the 8; they got #3 Edina while HM got Eastview, who was probably the top of the unseededs..

10, 11 & 12 were all 1AA reps against the 1 seed, which were pretty justified if they were the 8 (regardless of LS' upset in '12)

The 1 seed only won 50% of their quarterfinals when it was top-4 seeded. Since it's gone to top-5, the 1 seed is 6-0 in quarterfinal games. May not mean anything though since the 2 seed is 5-1 when it was top-4 seeded, and is 5-1 since it became top-5. 3 seed was 3-3 during top-4 seeded, and is 5-1 since top-5 seeded. Seems like the top-3 seeds as a whole have benefited to how it's done now. Thinking back between 07-12 when it was top-4 seeds, probably the only eye popper was when Grand Rapids played Edina in '07.

I think since they seeded 4 & 5, it's probably a little easier to justify simply because there's one less team in the random pool. I'm sure it will raise a few eyebrows if Lakeville South is playing Edina because there seems to be a clear #8 this year. But it's also easier for it to happen than it was during 4 teams seeded.

[CakeScout17]

CakeScout

Guessing at this point that Deast and Edina will set up in opposite brackets, so could shape up to be heckof a final if they both make it through. Would be a repeat of the 1997 championship game where Dan Carlson won it for the Hornets in a 1-0 game. And Randolph is the only coach with a winning record against Edina in State Tourney action.

Odds are yes, but something tells me that the old MSHSL might just assure that 'somebody new' gets in the finals and they place DE in Edina bracket as they did last year...bam! New champion in Tonka. Thats all relative as you still have to actually win. But if DE a #6-8 seed? WOW. Dare I say the strongest most imposing lower seed in years? I don't know. Maybe Im over-reacting to last nights Sec 7AA game...but compared to the other streams I watched last night and the sections at Mariucci - it was just a whole other level of puck. Buckle up, boys!

[elliott70]

I tried to think like each coach and voted

Edina
Blaine
STA
Moorhead
tied EP and DE
WBL
Lakeville

Bottom three do not get a number.
Not much question except 4,5 & 6 are very close.

[greenwayraider]

Regarding Moorhead/Duluth East. I think there's a case for both sides.

Moorhead: Head to Head win.
Duluth East: Different team this point in the season; credit for high ranking win over Andover.

I've made the case that EP should be no worse than the #4.

Question is: would Moorhead & Duluth East really care if they're the #5 or "the # 6" seed, if they really do just seed the bottom 3 & just don't tell anyone? No easier of a game against St. Thomas Academy than Eden Prairie, and you'd be on the opposite side of the bracket from Edina.

I think Edina is more worried than East about being in the same bracket.

[WestMetro]

YesIPlayed

Sticking with my prediction from last nite, below. Last several years, MSHSL has stuck with the Lets Play Hockey final rankings to seed not only the 1-5 but also the 6,7,8 , even though technically they are supposed to be random draw,

If that is the case, Deast will be opposite Edina, setting up potential of a great final game. And for that matter, MH could be opposite Deast for a longshot potential all northern final like 2017

The Blaine Deast game whether it would be Thursday or Friday night would feature the biggest two opposing first lines in the history of MSHSL, will be like watching two opposing NHL size lines on the ice. Rematch of a tie game earlier this year. Brodzinski and Richels are the top two AA scorers in the state. Paine and Cochran and Rabold will have their hands full.

by WestMetro » Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:48 pm

Agree on top 3

Likely pairings

Edina will play Lvs at 6 pm
Blaine will play Deast or Hill at 11
STA will play at 1.30 Deast or MH
8.30 WBL EP or EP MH

[Jeffy95]

Regarding Moorhead/Duluth East. I think there's a case for both sides.

Moorhead: Head to Head win.
Duluth East: Different team this point in the season; credit for high ranking win over Andover.

I've made the case that EP should be no worse than the #4.

Question is: would Moorhead & Duluth East really care if they're the #5 or "the # 6" seed, if they really do just seed the bottom 3 & just don't tell anyone? No easier of a game against St. Thomas Academy than Eden Prairie, and you'd be on the opposite side of the bracket from Edina.

I think Edina is more worried than East about being in the same bracket.

I'm guessing all of the top 3 are hoping East gets a seed.

[hockey59]

YesIPlayed

Sticking with my prediction from last nite, below. Last several years, MSHSL has stuck with the Lets Play Hockey final rankings to seed not only the 1-5 but also the 6,7,8 , even though technically they are supposed to be random draw,

If that is the case, Deast will be opposite Edina, setting up potential of a great final game. And for that matter, MH could be opposite Deast for a longshot potential all northern final like 2017

The Blaine Deast game whether it would be Thursday or Friday night would feature the biggest two opposing first lines in the history of MSHSL, will be like watching two opposing NHL size lines on the ice. Rematch of a tie game earlier this year. Brodzinski and Richels are the top two AA scorers in the state. Paine and Cochran and Rabold will have their hands full.

by WestMetro » Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:48 pm

Agree on top 3

Likely pairings

Edina will play Lvs at 6 pm
Blaine will play Deast or Hill at 11
STA will play at 1.30 Deast or MH
8.30 WBL EP or EP MH

I’m totally up for Blaine vs DE, maybe even Friday night.. and I don’t think the officials at XCEL will let it devolve into a WWE match...like last night at Amsoil

[That guy for that thing]

Regarding Moorhead/Duluth East. I think there's a case for both sides.

Moorhead: Head to Head win.
Duluth East: Different team this point in the season; credit for high ranking win over Andover.

I've made the case that EP should be no worse than the #4.

Question is: would Moorhead & Duluth East really care if they're the #5 or "the # 6" seed, if they really do just seed the bottom 3 & just don't tell anyone? No easier of a game against St. Thomas Academy than Eden Prairie, and you'd be on the opposite side of the bracket from Edina.

I think Edina is more worried than East about being in the same bracket.

I'm guessing all of the top 3 are hoping East gets a seed.

Except Edina. If DE gets a seed, most likely 4/5 which means a win has DE/Edina semi. 2/3 chance DE doesn’t draw Edina if unseeded.

[GettinHiggyWithIt]

CakeScout

Guessing at this point that Deast and Edina will set up in opposite brackets, so could shape up to be heckof a final if they both make it through. Would be a repeat of the 1997 championship game where Dan Carlson won it for the Hornets in a 1-0 game. And Randolph is the only coach with a winning record against Edina in State Tourney action.

Odds are yes, but something tells me that the old MSHSL might just assure that 'somebody new' gets in the finals and they place DE in Edina bracket as they did last year...bam! New champion in Tonka. Thats all relative as you still have to actually win. But if DE a #6-8 seed? WOW. Dare I say the strongest most imposing lower seed in years? I don't know. Maybe Im over-reacting to last nights Sec 7AA game...but compared to the other streams I watched last night and the sections at Mariucci - it was just a whole other level of puck. Buckle up, boys!

I don't much about the history of the tournament, but i'm with you in assuming that there has never been a scarier unseeded team than DE right now, I'm not sure anyone who would want to play them right now, everything is trending up for them, and no Minnetonka in their way this year. Im all In on putting my money on the Hounds come next weekend.

[SquirtC'00]

WBL, if they make it, could get seed over EP and Moorhead. Currently ranked higher. Tough call, though, on who is odd man out of those three. Duluth East beat WBL but had some questionable losses so likely won’t be seeded. But DE will be tough opening round opponent for whoever draws them.

Love me some East - STA Quarter. So does Danny!

Oh god I do not want that match up....

[hockey59]

:

WBL, if they make it, could get seed over EP and Moorhead. Currently ranked higher. Tough call, though, on who is odd man out of those three. Duluth East beat WBL but had some questionable losses so likely won’t be seeded. But DE will be tough opening round opponent for whoever draws them.

Love me some East - STA Quarter. So does Danny!

Oh god I do not want that match up....

Yeah Danny, if they ref it (like) last night, it will be called Wrestle-Mania 2019 And in the tradition of the Duke Bros, I do now owe you $1, although forgiving that debt as a result of the 2 not 3 (prediction debate final result) could possibly be warranted

[pekyman]

Well, here it comes and it's going to ruffle feathers and unleash passive/aggressive vitriol so BRING IT!

Seeding, schmeeding...

This '18-'19 season is a 'down year' overall. Not for entertainment mind you it is hockey after all - don't get me wrong. However, NONE of the regular season top 5 teams nor the state tourney participants can hold a candle to last years' top 5. I know, hard to compare, apples & oranges, players leaving, etc etc. but it's just a step down. It happens, it cycles. It is what it are! (Just wait till next year when it dips bit more...just sayin').

That said, rankings/seeds although 'earned' in a given season are meaningless. Remember this when you tune in or attend the Sat nite championship...
Oh sure, its fun fodder for the armchair folks like us but that's all...1/2 of us are proven right and the other go off crying and contradicting themselves in their daily lives. Folks, the 2019 state hockey championship was played at AmSoil Thursday night between Andover and DE!

END. OF. STORY.

The pace, intensity, raw energy and momentum swings was unlike any I have seen this year except for the DE/Andover matchup in early Dec and the summer showcase from late July - just relentless effort, speed and physicality. Nothing I have seen this season has matched it and I've now seen the entire top 20 live this year - So if DE ends up with a #5 or #6 seed? They will laugh all the way to the final whilst that #1 or #2 seed will have shaky hands as they lace up their skates Sat, March 9.

Early season Tonka was legit but veered off course. Blaine on a roll with 3 studs albeit not a lot of depth. MG just following their unfortunate annual script. Edina seemingly lacking grit yet they just end up outskating teams by middle of 3rd period and keep winning, but I still just dont 'feel it' from them...Andover and DE tho? Seem to possess another compete level. If you witnessed Wed nights sectional games at Mariucci and then caught the Thursday Andover/DE game you would wonder if there is a Class AAA in Minnesota...and, no, I'm not kidding (I actually heard couple of old-timers behind me in Sec 16 at Mariucci talking in their group of 4 and heard this quote, "is this the best these sections have?")...
DE has straightened out their issues, is on a roll and Ricky Lyle is flying as he has something to prove, to earn, if you will, a "ship" of both kinds - 'champion' and 'scholar'.

IMHO, its DE's tourney to lose now. Their speed, grit, preparedness and ability to adapt in-game under the professors' tutelage should propel them to the title they're seeking after last years' title loss to Tonka. Sure, anything can happen and it most assuredly will but I'd put my $ on DE. If DE is in Edina's bracket? Edina plays for 3rd place (again). If not, we might just see an Edina/DE final. If so, you'll see two different styles but it will end much like these two squads semifinal tilt from last March '18. And thus, provide further proof that rankings and seeds mean nothing.

I hope I'm wrong for selfish reasons but I must be objective and admit when I see something brewing. So, in the end, I'll either be the master prognosticator OR I just laid the biggest Costanza curse on DE and Jedi mind-tricked all their brethren. Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock...

East is going to pound their opposition in to submission with their size, skill and speed.
This is EAST's year and even I may pull for them.

[O-townClown]

1 Edina 6
3 Blaine 5
6 St. Thomas 3
7 Eden Prairie 2
11 Duluth East 7
13 Moorhead 8
20 White Bear Lake 4
24 Lakeville South 1

1. Edina
2. Blaine
3. St. T
4. Eden Prairie
5. Duluth E
x. Moorhead
x. White Bear Lake
x. Lakeville S

Reasoning:

Edina is #1 and will probably unanimously be voted as #1 seed
Blaine had a great year and is a solid #2
St. Thomas hasn't lost in forever. #3
Eden Prairie gets a 4 or 5 and won't go unseeded. They fared well this year and faced a very difficult schedule.
So it comes down to Moorhead, White Bear Lake & Duluth East for the 5 spot.

[hockey59]

1 Edina 6
3 Blaine 5
6 St. Thomas 3
7 Eden Prairie 2
11 Duluth East 7
13 Moorhead 8
20 White Bear Lake 4
24 Lakeville South 1

1. Edina
2. Blaine
3. St. T
4. Eden Prairie
5. Duluth E
x. Moorhead
x. White Bear Lake
x. Lakeville S

Reasoning:

Edina is #1 and will probably unanimously be voted as #1 seed
Blaine had a great year and is a solid #2
St. Thomas hasn't lost in forever. #3
Eden Prairie gets a 4 or 5 and won't go unseeded. They fared well this year and faced a very difficult schedule.
So it comes down to Moorhead, White Bear Lake & Duluth East for the 5 spot.

Moorhead beat Duluth East head to head (as I recall) pretty decisively...end of story.

[hockey59]

1 Edina 6
3 Blaine 5
6 St. Thomas 3
7 Eden Prairie 2
11 Duluth East 7
13 Moorhead 8
20 White Bear Lake 4
24 Lakeville South 1

1. Edina
2. Blaine
3. St. T
4. Eden Prairie
5. Duluth E
x. Moorhead
x. White Bear Lake
x. Lakeville S

Reasoning:

Edina is #1 and will probably unanimously be voted as #1 seed
Blaine had a great year and is a solid #2
St. Thomas hasn't lost in forever. #3
Eden Prairie gets a 4 or 5 and won't go unseeded. They fared well this year and faced a very difficult schedule.
So it comes down to Moorhead, White Bear Lake & Duluth East for the 5 spot.

We all know they no longer use a blind draw, so: #1 Edina vs LVS at 6pm, #2 Blaine vs WBL at 11am, #3 STA vs DE at 1pm, #4 EP vs #5 Moorhead at 8pm

[That guy for that thing]

1 Edina 6
3 Blaine 5
6 St. Thomas 3
7 Eden Prairie 2
11 Duluth East 7
13 Moorhead 8
20 White Bear Lake 4
24 Lakeville South 1

1. Edina
2. Blaine
3. St. T
4. Eden Prairie
5. Duluth E
x. Moorhead
x. White Bear Lake
x. Lakeville S

Reasoning:

Edina is #1 and will probably unanimously be voted as #1 seed
Blaine had a great year and is a solid #2
St. Thomas hasn't lost in forever. #3
Eden Prairie gets a 4 or 5 and won't go unseeded. They fared well this year and faced a very difficult schedule.
So it comes down to Moorhead, White Bear Lake & Duluth East for the 5 spot.

Moorhead beat Duluth East head to head (as I recall) pretty decisively...end of story.

But East tied EP, and Blaine. Shouldn't that bring them up to those levels then?