East Side Pioneer Guy wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:06 am
Based on past performance, WB should be unseeded.
The Bears are only 51 minutes away from Mariucci, which apparently is their favorite place to play in March.
Says the Guy or Gal who's team is cleaning out their Section 4AA home locker room
Seriously? Like WB's tournament past comes close to Hills? Even Stillwater has a better tournament history than WB.
This Hill team wasn't going to do any damage next week any way. It's a good year to let the Bears have a weekend, uh, an afternoon in downtown Saint Paul. The only way WB can spend the weekend in Saint Paul is if consolation gets moved to Tria.Which ain't gonna happen.
Section 8 guy wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:59 pm
Those of you that are applauding Pagestat for getting the seedings right need to take a step back and look at the big picture. It’s pretty much unanimous here that the seedings make no sense, yet they match Pagestat. That tells you pretty much everything you need to know about Pagestat.
PageStat nailed the Single A seeding too other than the SCC/Mahtomedi swap.
Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:06 am
Based on past performance, WB should be unseeded.
The Bears are only 51 minutes away from Mariucci, which apparently is their favorite place to play in March.
Says the Guy or Gal who's team is cleaning out their Section 4AA home locker room
Seriously? Like WB's tournament past comes close to Hills? Even Stillwater has a better tournament history than WB.
This Hill team wasn't going to do any damage next week any way. It's a good year to let the Bears have a weekend, uh, an afternoon in downtown Saint Paul. The only way WB can spend the weekend in Saint Paul is if consolation gets moved to Tria.Which ain't gonna happen.
Section 8 guy wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:59 pm
Those of you that are applauding Pagestat for getting the seedings right need to take a step back and look at the big picture. It’s pretty much unanimous here that the seedings make no sense, yet they match Pagestat. That tells you pretty much everything you need to know about Pagestat.
PageStat nailed the Single A seeding too other than the SCC/Mahtomedi swap.
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:06 am
Based on past performance, WB should be unseeded.
The Bears are only 51 minutes away from Mariucci, which apparently is their favorite place to play in March.
Says the Guy or Gal who's team is cleaning out their Section 4AA home locker room
Seriously? Like WB's tournament past comes close to Hills? Even Stillwater has a better tournament history than WB.
This Hill team wasn't going to do any damage next week any way. It's a good year to let the Bears have a weekend, uh, an afternoon in downtown Saint Paul. The only way WB can spend the weekend in Saint Paul is if consolation gets moved to Tria.Which ain't gonna happen.
This reminds me to get the WBL poll set up
Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006
I have lotta respect for PageStat, more than any other statistical model. Rarely has a big outlier, whereas QRF always has a few big outliers.
But this year WBL was an outlier all year long. Lee gave me a lengthy explanation earlier this year on why WBL ranked so low at PS 20+ , with only 4 losses. And curiously that didnt seem to improve much as time went on, whereas STA ends up at PS 6 in his system with 3 losses. Hardly much diff on the W/L record.
Might be helpful to explain that contrast between WBL/STA again, since my intuition is their SOS was not all that much different especially down the stretch in conference play. Perhaps STA margin of victory was consistently higher?
WestMetro wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:19 pm
I have lotta respect for PageStat, more than any other statistical model. Rarely has a big outlier, whereas QRF always has a few big outliers.
But this year WBL was an outlier all year long. Lee gave me a lengthy explanation earlier this year on why WBL ranked so low at PS 20+ , with only 4 losses. And curiously that didnt seem to improve much as time went on, whereas STA ends up at PS 6 in his system with 3 losses. Hardly much diff on the W/L record.
Might be helpful to explain that contrast between WBL/STA again, since my intuition is their SOS was not all that much different especially down the stretch in conference play. Perhaps STA margin of victory was consistently higher?
That final sentence pretty much explains it. PageStat is score-based, STA was +100, WBL +57. STA's SOS was also higher, and that spread was even more when those +6 PageStat margin games are tossed out.
Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006
I tend to wonder about that a little . I only see Bears a couple times a year , but always seems to me they tend to play a defensive low scoring system so they will always be in the game come the third period . But then again , maybe that’s not the explanation for low goal diff against lower ranked or unranked opponents , which I never see . Maybe Zach H can offer insight
West Metro my good friend & colleague...Did WBL beat (a few) of the weaker teams on their schedule 13-0 like STA beat Henry Sibley? It’s likely that simple (the difference) in how these two teams ranked on Pagestat..a great tool no doubt...but like all computers, lacking a human eye...which takes into account raw data...along with critical intangible factors
hockey59 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2019 5:26 pm
West Metro my good friend & colleague...Did WBL beat (a few) of the weaker teams on their schedule 13-0 like STA beat Henry Sibley? It’s likely that simple (the difference) in how these two teams ranked on Pagestat..a great tool no doubt...but like all computers, lacking a human eye...which takes into account raw data...along with critical intangible factors
PageStat has a goal cap of six goals, so those games for STA are thrown out in calculating their rating. This does have the side effect of increasing strength of schedule, but blowout games do not count toward the overall rating.
Section 8 guy wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:59 pm
Those of you that are applauding Pagestat for getting the seedings right need to take a step back and look at the big picture. It’s pretty much unanimous here that the seedings make no sense, yet they match Pagestat. That tells you pretty much everything you need to know about Pagestat.
PageStat nailed the Single A seeding too other than the SCC/Mahtomedi swap.
Lee
Pagestat didn’t nail anything. Matching a result that is inaccurate only shows that the system itself is flawed, probably mostly because of the goal differential issue pointed out above. The pretty much unanimous opinion that the seedings don’t make sense only supports that.
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:06 am
Based on past performance, WB should be unseeded.
The Bears are only 51 minutes away from Mariucci, which apparently is their favorite place to play in March.
Sounds like sour grapes east side. Lechner can get a jump on recruiting next years group of ringers. Had to laugh at the lady waiting for people to arrive on the south side of the arena. Someone finally told her she was on the wrong side.
Not to beat a dead horse, but looking at Bears schedule some more, their 4 losses were to as tough teams as anyone: Deast, Tonka, Andover, Edina. I was at the Tonka game and saw them claw their way back in the 3rd to lose by only 1. Not a single loss to a team lower than 12. On the win side, they had 2 blowouts against MV, but margins against other unrankeds were pretty modest, specially Woodbury and Flake . Nevertheless, they got the job done. They had decent wins against CEC, Hill, CDH and Still. Yes, strength of schedule nowhere near EP, but IMHO they should have had the 4/5 game against EP instead of the unseeded game against Blaine. My alma mater Deast by contrast was embarrassingly up and down like a yoyo after Christmas, with several inexcusable losses, and did not deserve to be seeded due to inconsistency and underachievement. Bears exactly the opposite, starting at beginning of year after graduating huge senior talent and losing Gallatin, and I dont think many pundits had them in top 15-20. No one overperformed this season more than the Bears. Having said all that, should be a good game against the Bengals, and their chances of advancing with an upset are much better than South or Moorhead IMHO. If they beat Blaine, they will have the same semi against EP that they should have had in the qtrs, so I guess anything could happen. I look forward to seeing the Orange Nation at the X again and could very much enjoy their first win, although that BRH trio for Bengals is pretty special too.
Last edited by WestMetro on Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Section 8 guy wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:45 pm
My understanding is there isn’t a coaches call for the State Tourney. That they just submit votes.
In Section 8 the coaches seeding votes are made public. Are the State Tourney votes public. Would just be interesting to see how it played out.
The StarTrib/Hub has an article online about the seedings, including a paragraph about the process:
“Each head coach cast electronic votes for the other seven qualifying teams. The highest and lowest votes for each team were excluded and the five teams with the lowest overall scores were awarded seeds. The remaining three teams were placed by blind draw.”
Section 8 guy wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:45 pm
My understanding is there isn’t a coaches call for the State Tourney. That they just submit votes.
In Section 8 the coaches seeding votes are made public. Are the State Tourney votes public. Would just be interesting to see how it played out.
The StarTrib/Hub has an article online about the seedings, including a paragraph about the process:
“Each head coach cast electronic votes for the other seven qualifying teams. The highest and lowest votes for each team were excluded and the five teams with the lowest overall scores were awarded seeds. The remaining three teams were placed by blind draw.”
Section 8 guy wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:59 pm
Those of you that are applauding Pagestat for getting the seedings right need to take a step back and look at the big picture. It’s pretty much unanimous here that the seedings make no sense, yet they match Pagestat. That tells you pretty much everything you need to know about Pagestat.
PageStat nailed the Single A seeding too other than the SCC/Mahtomedi swap.
Lee
Pagestat didn’t nail anything. Matching a result that is inaccurate only shows that the system itself is flawed, probably mostly because of the goal differential issue pointed out above. The pretty much unanimous opinion that the seedings don’t make sense only supports that.
(yawn)
Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006
In A Greenway was seeded, it seems in sections record matters, at state not so much.
I hated seeding when it started and it seems every year I miss the predetermined draw more and more. Sure on a rare occasion you might have the “top” two teams play each other but you avoided the farce of seeding teams like EP and Greenway based solely on the last weeks results.
goldy313 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:50 pm
In A Greenway was seeded, it seems in sections record matters, at state not so much.
I hated seeding when it started and it seems every year I miss the predetermined draw more and more. Sure on a rare occasion you might have the “top” two teams play each other but you avoided the farce of seeding teams like EP and Greenway based solely on the last weeks results.
The pre-determined draw, as it existed, would result in these quarterfinal matchups in Class A:
(3) New Ulm vs (7) Greenway
(8) East Grand Forks vs (1) Minnesota River
(5) North Branch vs (6) St Cloud Cathedral
(2) Delano vs (4) Mahtomedi
I don't see a particular close game in the quarterfinals, but how much fun would the semis and finals be?!
Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006