Pridictability of Class AA - state

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green4
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by green4 » Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:47 am

northwoods oldtimer wrote:
Wed Mar 20, 2019 2:50 pm
yesiplayedhockey wrote:
Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:16 pm
My crystal ball says this (and it's right 50% of the time...The other 50% of the time it's wrong)

Over the next 3,5,10 years I think you will see the same 4-6 teams dominating the class AA tournament

Yes we all know 8 teams get invited and yes a team like a Lakeville South or say Burnsville will occasionally make it to state. But I predict that 70-80% of the time the class AA winner will be one of those same 4-6 teams.. I predict we may never see a state FINAL that didn't at least have one of those 4-6 teams in it

Right now AAA parents are whispering to each other "what if we could keep this AAA team together in the winter? What if we all went there...or here. or or or.

AAA hockey, for all it's good, has actually helped private schools (and some public schools) build their business...I mean team...

I see the trend continuing and growing. I see more and more "high schools" becoming all star teams. Yes the state tournament will still have 8 schools. Yes some schools like LS will get there 1 out every 10 years. But if you're asking me, I believe more time than not, the winner of the state tournament will most likely come from that elite group of same schools.
@yesiplayedhockey NAILED IT!!!


Not sure I would call this nailing it. He claimed Lakeville South might get to the state tournament 1 out of 10 years after they just went three times this decade and probably the favorite for next year in that section.

But also predicting that the same 4-6 teams will dominate for the next ten years is an easy prediction. Someone wrote how many teams made state in each decade, but not the champions or runners up. So if we want to predict that 4-6 teams will be in every final for the next ten years lets look at the past.

The 1950's

6 different teams won Championships: Eveleth, Hibbing, St. Paul Johnson, Thief River, International Falls, Roseau
9 different teams in a championship game
Every championship game featured Eveleth, St. Paul Johnson, Thief River or Roseau.
Evelath 2 championships and two runner ups
Johnson and Roseau each had two championships and one runner up
Thief River had two championships
International Falls had 1 runner up

The 1960's

6 teams won Championships: Duluth East, Roseau, International Falls, St Paul Johnson, Greenway, Edina
10 different teams in the championship game
From 1962-1968 those 7 champioship games featured either International Falls or Greenway. Roseau won 1 championship and had 2 runner ups in the decade. Johnson had 1 Championship and 2 runner ups. The 60's were dominated by those 4 teams. The only two title games they were not featured in was 1960 where East beat St. Paul Washington and then 1969 which is when Edina wins their first title and become a powerhouse over warroad.
International Falls had 4 championships and one runner up
Greenway had two championships
Johnson and Roseau 1 championship and two runner ups

The 1970's

Again 6 teams win championships: Minneapolis Southwest, Edina/Edina East, International Falls, Hibbing, Grand Rapids, Rochester John Marshall.
10 different teams in the championship game
For 9 of the 10 years every state championship game featured either Edina or Grand Rapids. The one outlier is in 1974 when Hibbing beat Roseville Alexander Ramsey. Minneapolis Southwest and John Marshall each had a championship and a runner up trophy, but this decade was literally dominated by two teams. 2!
Edina four championships and two runner ups
Grand Rapids two championships and two runner ups
Southwest and JM with 1 championship and 1 runner up

The 1980's

6 teams again won championships, seems to be a trend. Those teams were: Grand Rapids, Jefferson, Edina, Hill-Murray, Burnsville and Bloomington Kennedy.
9 different teams in the state championship game
Every state championship game this decade had at least one of Jefferson, Edina, Hill-Murray or Burnsville in it. So four team dominated it.
Edina with three titles
Burnsville with two championships and two runner ups
Jefferson with two championships
Hill with 1 championship and four runner ups
Kennedy with 1 championship and 1 runner up

The 1990's

I am only counting AA and Tier I

Can you believe it? 6 teams again won championships. Roseau, Hill-Murray, Jefferson, Duluth East, Edina, Apple Valley
10 different teams in the championship game
Every championship game featured Roseau, Jefferson, Duluth East or Apple Valley.
Jefferson with three titles
Roseau with two
East with two and a runner up
Apple Valley, Edina and Hill all with 1 championship and 1 runner up.
Moorhead with 3 runner ups.
Probably the most diverse decade yet, but still, depending on how you want to break it down, only 4-6 teams dominated the 10 years.


The 2000's

The most amount of champions yet with 9 teams. Blaine, Elk River Holy Angels, Anoka, Centennial, Cretin-Derham Hall, Roseau, Hill Murray, Eden Prairie.
In the ten state title games there are 14 different teams featured, which is the most for a decade by a good amount in comparison.
But I still only need 5 teams to make up every state championship game: Blaine, Moorhead, Hill-Murray, Anoka, Grand Rapids.
Holy Angels has two championships
Hill Murray has one and a runner up
Blaine, Elk River, Anoka, Centennial, Roseau, Cretin and EP all get one
Moorhead has four runner ups
Grand Rapids has two runner ups.
The weird thing about this decade is that if you were gonna pick a team that was most dominating you might go with Moorhead even though they never won. Besides that you have a Holy Angels Team that quickly rose but the program kinda disappeared by the end of the decade and after four straight appearances from 2002-2005, have not made it back since. After them you have a lot of teams that only won one championship and never got back to a title game.
Obviously the most parity of any decade so far.

The 2010's

7 teams won state this decade: Edina, Eden Prairie, Benilde, Lakeville North, Wayzata, Grand Rapids and Minnetonka
10 different teams are in the state title game
4 are in every game besides one: Minnetonka, Eden Prairie, Hill Murray, Lakeville North (the fact that I didn't have to include Edina or East in this shows how useless this stat is and how easy it is to manipulate.) The one outlier year was Grand Rapids over Moorhead in 2017.
Edina with four titles was the best team this decade.
EP with one and two runner ups
Tonka and Lakeville North with one championship and one runner up
Benilde, Wayzata and Grand Rapids with one championship
Duluth East with three runner ups
Hill with two runner ups
This decade was basically dominated by one team, and then like the previous decade, a second tier of teams that consistently got second like East.
I would say Edina then EP then maybe Duluth East dominated this decade. Unlike the 60's, 70's, 80's and 90 we aren't seeing multiple teams winning a lot of championships, which makes it hard to see if we have a dominant team outside of Edina.


Obviously the 2000's were the least predictable or had the most parity, but we act like it has been more predictable of late. Looking through the years, I would say 2010's is either the 2nd or 3rd least predictable. I would say it is 2nd, but you could flip flop it with the 90's and that would be fine with me. 2010's bigger issue was that the same teams has been coming out sections. But 2010's has been less predictable than 50's or 60's where it was basically 4-5 teams trading off championships and clearly better than the 70's and 80's where it seemed even more predictable than the previous two decades.


In recap
The 1950s were dominated by 4-5 teams: Evelath, Johnson, Roseau, Thief River and maybe International Falls

The 60's were dominated by 4 teams: International Falls, Greenway, Roseau and Johnson

The 70's were dominated by two in Edina/Edina East and Grand Rapids

The 80's were dominated by Edina, Burnsville, Jefferson and Hill-Murray

The 90's were dominated by Jefferson, East and Roseau and then maybe a second tier of Apple Valley, Moorhead, Edina and Hill

The 2000's was all over the board but maybe you can argue Holy Angels and then maybe Moorhead as the most dominant

The 2010's were all Edina and then maybe EP and a second tier of East, Tonka and Lakeville North.



But my point in all this is that making a prediction that 4-6 teams will dominate and be in every state championship game is such an easy prediction because that has happened in every decade besides one.
Last edited by green4 on Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:13 am, edited 1 time in total.

green4
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by green4 » Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:01 am

All the talk about going back to 1 class seems odd too when you think about how everyone loved the Greenway story this year. If we are in a one class system, for Greenway to get to state, not only do they have to beat Hermantown, but also a Elk River/Cloquet quality opponent and then probably East. Seems like quite the challenge. If you are sick of seeing Edina and Eden Prarie going back to one class won’t change that, they will still make it. Like Karl said, the only difference would probably be Hermantown competing with East and section 8 having a little more variety.

GoldenBear
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by GoldenBear » Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:19 am

Green4, thanks for an awesome summary! GB

Mite-dad
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by Mite-dad » Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:56 am

elliott70 wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:59 pm
Mite-dad wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:48 pm
Here's a potential solution. Take the top two teams from each section for the AA tournament, start it on Tuesday. Leave the A tournament the same. This would get more new teams into the AA tournament. It might also lure some of the bigger A schools into AA. I could see an Alexandria, EGF, Hermantown, Mahtomedi, SCC, etc. jumping to AA if they would sniff a state tourney once in awhile at the AA level. Just a thought.
So this year we would have had

Moorhead - Brainerd
Duluth East - Andover
Edina - Benilde
Blaine - Maple Grove
White Bear - Hill Murray
STA - Eagan
Eden Prairie - Holy Family
Lakeville N & S

And to keep DJ happy seed them based on QRF.
I think it's worth doing just for Syd! Imagine how fired up he'd be!

northwoods oldtimer
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by northwoods oldtimer » Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:18 am

karl(east) wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:41 pm
Interesting backstory on the A/AA split and its advocates. (I was in diapers when that happened. We're at the point now where a couple generations have no memory of single-class hockey.)

It made me wonder how many more teams would've gone to state over the past decade if we still had single class hockey. Hermantown, East Grand Forks probably back in its Class A title seasons, maybe(??) Lourdes out of Section 1 at the very start of the decade when the Lakevilles were going with sub-.500 regular season records...but that's about it. Obviously it would depend on how sections are drawn; maybe Elk River and Andover snag one or two if they're not in a section with East and Grand Rapids, and maybe Cathedral this year depending where they are, and Breck at the start of the decade might have gone if not stuffed in a section with Lake Conference teams. But we're talking 2-3 more teams maybe.

I'm not in favor of a 3-class system or anything that expands the field either, really. Going to State should be an achievement. I think section finals are as fun, if not more fun, than State at times, and if they become the equivalent of current section semis, or if teams only need to win two games to get there, sections start to lose their luster. Anyone who worships the Tourney but ignores everything that comes before that misses half the fun.

I realize there are a bunch of AA schools that can't compete with what we might call the elite tier of schools, and I don't think blocking opt-ups would strengthen the Class A tournament since it would really just strengthen the Class A sections that are already the best sections. One thing I think they could do is limit AA to 64 teams and bump low-enrollment schools down to A to accommodate the opt-ups.

If I sound like I'm just I'm just defending the status quo, it's probably because I'm skeptical of the long-term effectiveness of any administrative switch to address trends whose root causes are far beyond the control of a high school league. The MSHSL isn't exactly at the top of my Christmas card list these days, but it isn't the reason or that inner city schools looking nothing like they did 50 years ago, or the reason some suburbs have come to have stunning concentrations of wealth relative to others, or the reason that school choice/free agency has become widespread (though I do think the two-class split accelerated that for hockey reasons), or the reason the mines on the Iron Range now produce the same amount of ore they did 40 years ago with one third of the workforce. This is the world we live in.
I have to agree with the A/AA brethren that todays split is best option as much as my nostalgic mind long for the single class system. Economics of hockey and changing demographics have altered the hockey landscape. Back in the single class days. towns like Anoka, Bloomington Kennedy, Grand Rapids had the hockey numbers and the school enrollment numbers as did places like South St. Paul. Those days are gone, never to return as much as I wish they could. Kudos to all who manage the time and resources to commit to such a sport from mites thru HS (junior also).

Mite-dad
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by Mite-dad » Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:34 am

The Single A Quarterfinals could be made much better with very little imagination in the section reassignment process. It might water down the section final games though in some sections.

green4
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by green4 » Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:09 am

northwoods oldtimer wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:18 am
karl(east) wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:41 pm
Interesting backstory on the A/AA split and its advocates. (I was in diapers when that happened. We're at the point now where a couple generations have no memory of single-class hockey.)

It made me wonder how many more teams would've gone to state over the past decade if we still had single class hockey. Hermantown, East Grand Forks probably back in its Class A title seasons, maybe(??) Lourdes out of Section 1 at the very start of the decade when the Lakevilles were going with sub-.500 regular season records...but that's about it. Obviously it would depend on how sections are drawn; maybe Elk River and Andover snag one or two if they're not in a section with East and Grand Rapids, and maybe Cathedral this year depending where they are, and Breck at the start of the decade might have gone if not stuffed in a section with Lake Conference teams. But we're talking 2-3 more teams maybe.

I'm not in favor of a 3-class system or anything that expands the field either, really. Going to State should be an achievement. I think section finals are as fun, if not more fun, than State at times, and if they become the equivalent of current section semis, or if teams only need to win two games to get there, sections start to lose their luster. Anyone who worships the Tourney but ignores everything that comes before that misses half the fun.

I realize there are a bunch of AA schools that can't compete with what we might call the elite tier of schools, and I don't think blocking opt-ups would strengthen the Class A tournament since it would really just strengthen the Class A sections that are already the best sections. One thing I think they could do is limit AA to 64 teams and bump low-enrollment schools down to A to accommodate the opt-ups.

If I sound like I'm just I'm just defending the status quo, it's probably because I'm skeptical of the long-term effectiveness of any administrative switch to address trends whose root causes are far beyond the control of a high school league. The MSHSL isn't exactly at the top of my Christmas card list these days, but it isn't the reason or that inner city schools looking nothing like they did 50 years ago, or the reason some suburbs have come to have stunning concentrations of wealth relative to others, or the reason that school choice/free agency has become widespread (though I do think the two-class split accelerated that for hockey reasons), or the reason the mines on the Iron Range now produce the same amount of ore they did 40 years ago with one third of the workforce. This is the world we live in.
I have to agree with the A/AA brethren that todays split is best option as much as my nostalgic mind long for the single class system. Economics of hockey and changing demographics have altered the hockey landscape. Back in the single class days. towns like Anoka, Bloomington Kennedy, Grand Rapids had the hockey numbers and the school enrollment numbers as did places like South St. Paul. Those days are gone, never to return as much as I wish they could. Kudos to all who manage the time and resources to commit to such a sport from mites thru HS (junior also).
I don't know much about Anoka or Grand Rapids, but South St.Paul and Kennedy are still big schools enrollment size, they are only in single A because of the reduced/free lunch numbers. Hockey's rising expensives and inability to be affordable has taken a lot of these schools out of contention and should be a source of blame. Online it says South St. Paul has an enrollment of 1700, on par with the lakeville schools, but with free/reduced lunch they measure in at 750. If hockey ever found away to become somewhat affordable and started to attract lower class families and minorities, you might see a resurgence with some of these schools.

bodyup88
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by bodyup88 » Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:55 am

way off on South St. Paul numbers. Their enrollment is 799, not 1700.

green4
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by green4 » Fri Mar 22, 2019 11:15 am

bodyup88 wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:55 am
way off on South St. Paul numbers. Their enrollment is 799, not 1700.
I see, I didn't realize they counted 6-12 grade in the enrollment numbers I saw. Regardless, I think the point still stands that hockey is too expensive and the fact that numerous first ring suburbs can't field a team shows this.

StanleyCup55
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by StanleyCup55 » Fri Mar 22, 2019 11:44 am

green4 wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:01 am
All the talk about going back to 1 class seems odd too when you think about how everyone loved the Greenway story this year. If we are in a one class system, for Greenway to get to state, not only do they have to beat Hermantown, but also a Elk River/Cloquet quality opponent and then probably East. Seems like quite the challenge. If you are sick of seeing Edina and Eden Prarie going back to one class won’t change that, they will still make it. Like Karl said, the only difference would probably be Hermantown competing with East and section 8 having a little more variety.
I’m not one saying we should go back to one class. I do like to A and AA system but I think Hermantown, Mahtomedi, EGF, Alex and Cathedral should be up in AA. I usually then get accused of creating Tier 1 and Tier 2 again but the way I see it is you give a Greenway story every year without Hermantown in 7A. Yes, these moves will “dilute” the class A tourney talent level but you will have better, more competitive games. And you won’t see blowouts in QF round. I don’t like going to a 3 class system I would rather keep it the way it is than go that direction. I’m just saying that if I was in charge I would make a rule to force these 4 northern teams up move ER and Andover to 5AA, and Mahtomedi to 4AA. It would strengthen 7AA and 8AA because EGF and Alex will be able to compete with Moorhead and Brainerd most years and that is all that should matter because there are a lot of teams who have absolutely no chance. EGF and Alex would have had a darn good chance to beat Moorhead, Bemidji or STMA in 8AA the past few years. Everyone knows Hermantown should be AA.

The league needs to recognize that the northern sections are important to the AA state tourney’s success. Also that there is a problem with the Class A QF round. The semis are great and so is the championship but how is attendance at those games? Would they really make that much less money if you moved a few teams out and had a “weaker” tournament.

If the tourney becomes all metro then it’s done. And don’t mean if Andover and STMA make it to state then it’s doomed. I mean that if Moorhead and Duluth East are the only two teams in Class AAA then it’s doomed. Ticket sales, tradition and fan excitement is gone.

It’s called the Minnesota State Tournament. Not the Twin Cities State Tournament. Once it’s not the Minnesota State Tournament anymore I think it’s done.

7TIMECHAMPS
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by 7TIMECHAMPS » Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:54 pm

Alex and EGF vs Moorhead the last four years 0-5-1

The two years that Bemidji went I think they went like 1-4-1 against Bemidji or something like that.

A previous post of mine went over the bantam results this year in which both teams got mopped up by their top would be competitors in 8AA. You are right that they could compete with Brainerd but that is only because Brainerd’s program is trending down.

EGF’s back to back state champs teams would have had a good chance but after that I would say a solid decade for sure where neither sniffs a state tournament. And neither of those programs has a group like that EGF group coming anytime soon.

I want to see them move up as well to make it a northern section but saying they have to move up because they could win 8AA for the most part just isn’t true.

Also, the further you dilute the A tournament actually the easier it is for a school to have a special group and blow teams out in the quarters and sections. Watch EGF and Alex get moved up and see what Warroad’s current bantam team does in sections in a few years (and state). Don’t believe me go check the results. Regions scores of 9-0, 7-1, and 5-2(against EGF who we theoretically moved up for being too good). So do we just move them up too even though they then won’t sniff a tournament for years? My point is you can’t just move up every decent program. They aren’t all Hermantown and can win their AA sections very often(although Hermantown doesn’t dominate AA at youth anymore either).

Finally, just going to throw out there that there is no Greenway upset story without Hermantown either.

Slap Shot
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by Slap Shot » Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:58 pm

green4 wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:47 am
But my point in all this is that making a prediction that 4-6 teams will dominate and be in every state championship game is such an easy prediction because that has happened in every decade besides one.
You're contradicting your own facts:
The 2000's - 9 different champions
The 2010's - 7 teams won state this decade
80% of the titles went to a different team making it less predictable than during previous eras and as I noted previously 10 different teams made the title game this decade. J

green4
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by green4 » Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:09 pm

Slap Shot wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:58 pm
green4 wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:47 am
But my point in all this is that making a prediction that 4-6 teams will dominate and be in every state championship game is such an easy prediction because that has happened in every decade besides one.
You're contradicting your own facts:
The 2000's - 9 different champions
The 2010's - 7 teams won state this decade
80% of the titles went to a different team making it less predictable than during previous eras and as I noted previously 10 different teams made the title game this decade. J
Yeah, I think we are on the same page? I said this decade was only behind 2000’s for most Unpredictable. I even counted how many different teams made a title game for each decade.

I also don’t think I’m contradicting my own facts by being critical of a statement that says “4-6 teams will dominate a decade and that makes high school hockey boring” when 6 out of 7 decades has shown that that is typical. I could have worded it better, but hardly a contradiction in the grand scheme of things

But again, I think the two of us are on the same team for this arguement.

Edinahopkins
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by Edinahopkins » Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:17 pm

I think if you go to the state tournament in A four years in a row or so many trips in a 6 year frame you’re program is forced AA for two years then you can go back down if you want to. I still think the high school league should have hockey start first and end last play 20 minuet periods 30-35 regular season games try something.

WestMetro
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by WestMetro » Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:12 pm

A few recent memories....

- 2019 - first time A champ
-2018 - first time AA champ
First time A champ
-2017- all northern final
- 2016 - first time AA champ
- 2015 - first time AA champ

Also in recent years , didn’t we have first STMA appearance , 2 Bemidji appearances after long absence , a Farmington appearance , a couple Stillwater appearances , and a Bville and Anoka appearance after long absences?

Seems to me there is still some unpredictability left at the X
Last edited by WestMetro on Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.

zooomx
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by zooomx » Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:27 pm

StanleyCup55 wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 11:44 am
green4 wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:01 am
All the talk about going back to 1 class seems odd too when you think about how everyone loved the Greenway story this year. If we are in a one class system, for Greenway to get to state, not only do they have to beat Hermantown, but also a Elk River/Cloquet quality opponent and then probably East. Seems like quite the challenge. If you are sick of seeing Edina and Eden Prarie going back to one class won’t change that, they will still make it. Like Karl said, the only difference would probably be Hermantown competing with East and section 8 having a little more variety.
I’m not one saying we should go back to one class. I do like to A and AA system but I think Hermantown, Mahtomedi, EGF, Alex and Cathedral should be up in AA. I usually then get accused of creating Tier 1 and Tier 2 again but the way I see it is you give a Greenway story every year without Hermantown in 7A. Yes, these moves will “dilute” the class A tourney talent level but you will have better, more competitive games. And you won’t see blowouts in QF round. I don’t like going to a 3 class system I would rather keep it the way it is than go that direction. I’m just saying that if I was in charge I would make a rule to force these 4 northern teams up move ER and Andover to 5AA, and Mahtomedi to 4AA. It would strengthen 7AA and 8AA because EGF and Alex will be able to compete with Moorhead and Brainerd most years and that is all that should matter because there are a lot of teams who have absolutely no chance. EGF and Alex would have had a darn good chance to beat Moorhead, Bemidji or STMA in 8AA the past few years. Everyone knows Hermantown should be AA.

The league needs to recognize that the northern sections are important to the AA state tourney’s success. Also that there is a problem with the Class A QF round. The semis are great and so is the championship but how is attendance at those games? Would they really make that much less money if you moved a few teams out and had a “weaker” tournament.

If the tourney becomes all metro then it’s done. And don’t mean if Andover and STMA make it to state then it’s doomed. I mean that if Moorhead and Duluth East are the only two teams in Class AAA then it’s doomed. Ticket sales, tradition and fan excitement is gone.

It’s called the Minnesota State Tournament. Not the Twin Cities State Tournament. Once it’s not the Minnesota State Tournament anymore I think it’s done.
I remember a time not too long ago, when I said as soon as Hermantown moves up people would call for the next Hermantown to move up. I was called crazy. Well, crazy is here in full force. The topic is Predictability of Class AA - state, and just how would moving your 5 target team up change the Predictability of Class AA - state. It is beyond ridiculous to say the top 5 teams in A should move up. Can we start a Hermantown, EGF, Alexandria, Cathedral, Mahtomedi bashing thread??

spamtownusa
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by spamtownusa » Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:59 pm

“Finally, just going to throw out there that there is no Greenway upset story without Hermantown either.”
—-

Completely agree with this. Take away all the Goliaths and no one cares about the Davids. Why water down class A? I agree with what a couple people have said before... eliminate the opt-up option. Boost the quality of the A tournament and it will become way more exciting. Hell... then let the A champ play the AA champ. With no opt-ups, the A champ would win more times than we might think.

BleedGreen5
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by BleedGreen5 » Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:48 pm

7TIMECHAMPS wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:54 pm
Alex and EGF vs Moorhead the last four years 0-5-1

The two years that Bemidji went I think they went like 1-4-1 against Bemidji or something like that.

A previous post of mine went over the bantam results this year in which both teams got mopped up by their top would be competitors in 8AA. You are right that they could compete with Brainerd but that is only because Brainerd’s program is trending down.

EGF’s back to back state champs teams would have had a good chance but after that I would say a solid decade for sure where neither sniffs a state tournament. And neither of those programs has a group like that EGF group coming anytime soon.

I want to see them move up as well to make it a northern section but saying they have to move up because they could win 8AA for the most part just isn’t true.

Also, the further you dilute the A tournament actually the easier it is for a school to have a special group and blow teams out in the quarters and sections. Watch EGF and Alex get moved up and see what Warroad’s current bantam team does in sections in a few years (and state). Don’t believe me go check the results. Regions scores of 9-0, 7-1, and 5-2(against EGF who we theoretically moved up for being too good). So do we just move them up too even though they then won’t sniff a tournament for years? My point is you can’t just move up every decent program. They aren’t all Hermantown and can win their AA sections very often(although Hermantown doesn’t dominate AA at youth anymore either).

Finally, just going to throw out there that there is no Greenway upset story without Hermantown either.
Watch EGF and Alex get moved up and see what Warroad’s current bantam team does in sections in a few years (and state). Don’t believe me go check the results. Regions scores of 9-0, 7-1, and 5-2(against EGF who we theoretically moved up for being too good).

Just so you know EGF's best two Bantam Eligible players played in the top 6 D for the High School this year and ran the 1st and 2nd powerplays.

Alex and EGF vs Moorhead the last four years 0-5-1

They were competetive games though, not blowouts. Roseau has the same problem as EGF, "Depth" we need 3 classes to reach that depth

BleedGreen5
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by BleedGreen5 » Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:51 pm

spamtownusa wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:59 pm
“Finally, just going to throw out there that there is no Greenway upset story without Hermantown either.”
—-

Completely agree with this. Take away all the Goliaths and no one cares about the Davids. Why water down class A? I agree with what a couple people have said before... eliminate the opt-up option. Boost the quality of the A tournament and it will become way more exciting. Hell... then let the A champ play the AA champ. With no opt-ups, the A champ would win more times than we might think.
Class A's problem was 5 of the Top 10 teams weren't at the State Tourney, beaten in Sectional play.

Stang5280
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by Stang5280 » Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:34 pm

BleedGreen5 wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:51 pm
spamtownusa wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:59 pm
“Finally, just going to throw out there that there is no Greenway upset story without Hermantown either.”
—-

Completely agree with this. Take away all the Goliaths and no one cares about the Davids. Why water down class A? I agree with what a couple people have said before... eliminate the opt-up option. Boost the quality of the A tournament and it will become way more exciting. Hell... then let the A champ play the AA champ. With no opt-ups, the A champ would win more times than we might think.
Class A's problem was 5 of the Top 10 teams weren't at the State Tourney, beaten in Sectional play.
Based on Karl’s final regular season rankings, the exact same thing occurred in AA. Sure, Class A has a few weaker sections, which made the quarterfinals largely noncompetitive this year, but the semis and final were fantastic. That’s just the nature of geographically aligned sections; you almost certainly aren’t going to have the best eight teams in the tournament.

pekyman
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by pekyman » Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:52 pm

The current structure of the MSHSL does not work.Having a structure where a team falls within the guidelines to compete at the designated level only to be attacked and disparaged because they are too good for that level is ridiculous. What other sport in high school opens it up to public opinion about what level a team plays at. I agree with the posters that think we should go with 3 classes, maybe even 4 with the privates in there own class:
Private
AAA
AA
A
How this would be done can be debated but there is absolutely a way to categorize the teams into these classes. 2 is not enough.
Sorry northern MN, there are only 2 AAA HS teams north of Hinckley: East and Moorhead...

goldy313
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by goldy313 » Fri Mar 22, 2019 11:18 pm

O-townClown wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:51 am
goldy313 wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:07 am
Opinion.....the Texas high school football tournament is now the best. Football doesn’t lose their “top” players to crap junior leagues. Hockey loses some players to the USHL or NTDP but still lose some to tier 2 and tier 3 leagues.
Do you watch it? I'm curious because it has SO MANY DIVISIONS, which makes sense because every community has football and it is a massive state. No matter where you live a school nearby is in the state final at some level. A great spectacle for sure, but it isn't anything like the Minnesota HS tournament.

Colby will be remembered for 50 years as the kid that buried the OT winner. Spehar will never be forgotten. Boucha. Which guy on which team in which division in Texas is the one that history remembers?

It is a different animal entirely. Give me the state tourney from the X with tv coverage across most or all of Minnesota.
I couldn’t give you Colby’s name before you mentioned it
now and I was there. Boucha is remembered because he was hurt, same as Joe Thiesman..... great player or not, the injury is their defining moment.

Hockey is a niche sport. Football is not. Attend both as I have, Minnesota hockey is not what it was. Some, it is a niche sport, some is it is deemed an elitist sport, some is the way the Wild run their arena built with public tax dollars. At any rate hockey at the AA level does not engage the community in general, rather it engages the hockey community, which is fairly small on relation to the community in general.

The NHL can barely make network television while college football is prevalent on all networks and the NFL is the ratings king. There is no way outside Minnesota or the rabid hockey community anyone thinks the Minnesota high school hockey tournament is the premier high school event anymore. Heck even in the NCAA wrestling will far outdraw hockey in terms of ratings and attendance.... how many nights are wrestling on ESPN vs hockey?

7TIMECHAMPS
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by 7TIMECHAMPS » Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:02 am

goldy313 wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 11:18 pm
O-townClown wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:51 am
goldy313 wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:07 am
Opinion.....the Texas high school football tournament is now the best. Football doesn’t lose their “top” players to crap junior leagues. Hockey loses some players to the USHL or NTDP but still lose some to tier 2 and tier 3 leagues.
Do you watch it? I'm curious because it has SO MANY DIVISIONS, which makes sense because every community has football and it is a massive state. No matter where you live a school nearby is in the state final at some level. A great spectacle for sure, but it isn't anything like the Minnesota HS tournament.

Colby will be remembered for 50 years as the kid that buried the OT winner. Spehar will never be forgotten. Boucha. Which guy on which team in which division in Texas is the one that history remembers?

It is a different animal entirely. Give me the state tourney from the X with tv coverage across most or all of Minnesota.
I couldn’t give you Colby’s name before you mentioned it
now and I was there. Boucha is remembered because he was hurt, same as Joe Thiesman..... great player or not, the injury is their defining moment.

Hockey is a niche sport. Football is not. Attend both as I have, Minnesota hockey is not what it was. Some, it is a niche sport, some is it is deemed an elitist sport, some is the way the Wild run their arena built with public tax dollars. At any rate hockey at the AA level does not engage the community in general, rather it engages the hockey community, which is fairly small on relation to the community in general.

The NHL can barely make network television while college football is prevalent on all networks and the NFL is the ratings king. There is no way outside Minnesota or the rabid hockey community anyone thinks the Minnesota high school hockey tournament is the premier high school event anymore. Heck even in the NCAA wrestling will far outdraw hockey in terms of ratings and attendance.... how many nights are wrestling on ESPN vs hockey?
What’s your point in this post? Comparing high school hockey to NCAA wrestling? That’s cool. NHL to NFL? What does that have to do with anything? Maybe I should say that football is a niche sport on the world stage. Nobody outside the US cares about football and therefore it is not a big deal. We should all watch soccer. That is the sport of the world. By the way how many people are at those wrestling matches you talked about? And how many people outside the state of Texas care about Texas high school football? None. I couldn’t name a single high school football team in Texas. And I am a football fan actually.......point is the MN state hockey tournament is special because the people of MINNESOTA are passionate and care about it. Not because other people care about it.

Stang5280
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by Stang5280 » Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:04 am

goldy313 wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 11:18 pm
I couldn’t give you Colby’s name before you mentioned it
now and I was there.
I was only watching on TV, but that was my first instinct as well when O-town wrote that line regarding his instant legend status.
goldy313 wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 11:18 pm
Hockey is a niche sport. Football is not. Attend both as I have, Minnesota hockey is not what it was. Some, it is a niche sport, some is it is deemed an elitist sport, some is the way the Wild run their arena built with public tax dollars. At any rate hockey at the AA level does not engage the community in general, rather it engages the hockey community, which is fairly small on relation to the community in general.
I hope I didn’t accidentally kick off this tangential debate. Many posts back now I referred to Minnesota having the premier state high school hockey tournament, not the premier high school sports championship overall.
goldy313 wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 11:18 pm
Heck even in the NCAA wrestling will far outdraw hockey in terms of ratings and attendance.... how many nights are wrestling on ESPN vs hockey?
Wrestling: 3, Hockey 6. Hockey for the win! :wink: Both are still relatively small potatoes, to be sure.

Jeffy95
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by Jeffy95 » Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:08 am

zooomx wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:27 pm
StanleyCup55 wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 11:44 am
green4 wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:01 am
All the talk about going back to 1 class seems odd too when you think about how everyone loved the Greenway story this year. If we are in a one class system, for Greenway to get to state, not only do they have to beat Hermantown, but also a Elk River/Cloquet quality opponent and then probably East. Seems like quite the challenge. If you are sick of seeing Edina and Eden Prarie going back to one class won’t change that, they will still make it. Like Karl said, the only difference would probably be Hermantown competing with East and section 8 having a little more variety.
I’m not one saying we should go back to one class. I do like to A and AA system but I think Hermantown, Mahtomedi, EGF, Alex and Cathedral should be up in AA. I usually then get accused of creating Tier 1 and Tier 2 again but the way I see it is you give a Greenway story every year without Hermantown in 7A. Yes, these moves will “dilute” the class A tourney talent level but you will have better, more competitive games. And you won’t see blowouts in QF round. I don’t like going to a 3 class system I would rather keep it the way it is than go that direction. I’m just saying that if I was in charge I would make a rule to force these 4 northern teams up move ER and Andover to 5AA, and Mahtomedi to 4AA. It would strengthen 7AA and 8AA because EGF and Alex will be able to compete with Moorhead and Brainerd most years and that is all that should matter because there are a lot of teams who have absolutely no chance. EGF and Alex would have had a darn good chance to beat Moorhead, Bemidji or STMA in 8AA the past few years. Everyone knows Hermantown should be AA.

The league needs to recognize that the northern sections are important to the AA state tourney’s success. Also that there is a problem with the Class A QF round. The semis are great and so is the championship but how is attendance at those games? Would they really make that much less money if you moved a few teams out and had a “weaker” tournament.

If the tourney becomes all metro then it’s done. And don’t mean if Andover and STMA make it to state then it’s doomed. I mean that if Moorhead and Duluth East are the only two teams in Class AAA then it’s doomed. Ticket sales, tradition and fan excitement is gone.

It’s called the Minnesota State Tournament. Not the Twin Cities State Tournament. Once it’s not the Minnesota State Tournament anymore I think it’s done.
I remember a time not too long ago, when I said as soon as Hermantown moves up people would call for the next Hermantown to move up. I was called crazy. Well, crazy is here in full force. The topic is Predictability of Class AA - state, and just how would moving your 5 target team up change the Predictability of Class AA - state. It is beyond ridiculous to say the top 5 teams in A should move up. Can we start a Hermantown, EGF, Alexandria, Cathedral, Mahtomedi bashing thread??
There is no "Next Hermantown." You cannot sustain success in Class A the way Hermantown has unless you get multiple, high end transfers to your program. Hermantown averages two future D1 transfers/open-enrollees on every team. Do you think that makes a difference in Class A? Nobody transfers to Mahtomedi, Alex, or EGF for hockey so they are free to do what they want.

But Alex and Mahtomedi are going to get to AA by enrollment soon either way. Alex is over 1200 and a fast growing, wealthy community. Not sure if the Founding Fathers of the A/AA split envisioned teams like them and Mahtomedi in Class A or not. You would have to ask them.

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