Pridictability of Class AA - state

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northwoods oldtimer
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by northwoods oldtimer » Wed Mar 20, 2019 8:10 pm

Stang5280 wrote:
Wed Mar 20, 2019 4:22 pm
StanleyCup55 wrote:
Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:06 am
I’ll also have to repcestully disagree with Karl and Stang about those percentages.
Lakeville North/South 90% of the time compared to Burnsville at 50%? I know north and south are two different teams but it’s the same town. Still, you have Duluth East at 80%, Hill at 60%. The percentages from the 80s are higher which prove Elliott’s point. I also took it a step further and looked up how many different teams actually qualified for state in each decade dating back to the 80s.

1980-1989
37 different teams made state

1990-1999
32 different teams made state

2000-2009
33 different teams made state

2010-2019
26 different teams made state

Looks to me like it’s going the way of the same teams. Both the %’s and the number of teams support that. Yet people are on here saying that it’s the same when the numbers clearly show they’re not! This boggles my mind just like the fact that Hermantown is still in Class A, Elk River and Andover are still in Section 7AA and the league allows AA caliber teams to play A hockey. I really do wonder who is in charge over at the MSHSL.
I won't bother addressing the A/AA alignments, since that is a horse that has been beaten to death already and both sides basically have their heels dug in and aren't budging on their stances.

Here few points I do feel are worth addressing, however. First, 1AA presents almost an unsolvable dilemma at this stage. There are simply not enough AA size and/or caliber programs in that corner of the state to make it a truly southeastern section. So you have to shoehorn a few of the south suburban schools down there to fill out the section. Unfortunately, Rochester hockey is in such rough shape right now that they can barely fill out the rosters for the four schools in the city, much less compete with the Lakevilles, even when those teams are hovering around .500. You could shuffle some other south suburban schools into the section, but the same basic problem remains.

Excellent research in bringing up the number of state participants during each decade. It definitely does show that we have seen more of the same faces in AA recently than any other decade in recent history. Whether that is an aberration or a trend remains to be seen, however.

I would also point out that the 1980s were a unique period where the balance of power was transitioning from the north to the metro area, and schools were consolidating or closing. There were a number of tournament appearances by schools that no longer have hockey teams or have closed entirely: Columbia Heights, Minneapolis Southwest, WB Mariner, Hopkins Lindbergh, etc. And then there are a few programs that are no longer relevant or don't play at the AA level, such as Henry Sibley, Irondale, Denfeld, Warroad, Richfield, and Kennedy. By the end of the decade, however, we started seeing more of the same faces crop up repeatedly in the tournament, particularly the Edina/Jefferson/HM trifecta. So perhaps the 1980s were an aberration in the number of programs qualifying for state, as the numbers were lower but stable over the next few decades.

I guess the bottom line of what I have been getting at is that we should have some patience and faith in the system. It has largely worked well for many years, and making giant changes may lead to unintended consequences, and we could end up ruining what is still the best HS hockey tournament in the nation.
We = 'hockey rubes' have little say in the matter . as far as our rant goes, it starts and ends here in this forum.

Only ones who kicked the premier one class tournament to the curb was MSHSL.

Only ones that could create a worse mess is MSHSL. Never underestimate their collective ability to hose things up! #-o #-o #-o

I would like to one day read a Karl East article, post one class tournament but that ain't happening......EVER AGAIN.

goldy313
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by goldy313 » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:07 am

Lakeville/ North has made every section 1AA final since 2004.
Century last made a 1AA final in 2009, they won it that year but were in the 1AA final 8 out of 10 years in that decade.
John Marshall last made a 1AA final in 2005.
Austin won a 1AA title in 2001, they haven’t been in 1AA since 2004
Mayo won a 1AA title in 2000, that was their last final appearance.

Hastings has a good chance to break that streak should they stay in 1AA. A sophomore goalie struggled this year while South had a senior goalie who set a state tournament save record. In 1AA we see this, Alex Kansas, Charlie Lindgren, etc have all lost then won. I expect McCarville to join that group.

Opinion.....the Texas high school football tournament is now the best. Football doesn’t lose their “top” players to crap junior leagues. Hockey loses some players to the USHL or NTDP but still lose some to tier 2 and tier 3 leagues.

Also, blaming the MSHSL has some merit but but the League gives far too much leeway to the coaches associations. A small minority of coaches, largely from 7A schools, pushed the 2 class hockey through. People from NE Minnesota complaining irk me. Their coaches put the 2 class system as we know it in place.

Rochester youth hockey is a mess. The boards since about 2005 have been about promoting their own kids, not about growing hockey. The list of kids leaving early mimic board members....no coincidence.

northwoods oldtimer
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by northwoods oldtimer » Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:18 am

goldy313 wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:07 am
Lakeville/ North has made every section 1AA final since 2004.
Century last made a 1AA final in 2009, they won it that year but were in the 1AA final 8 out of 10 years in that decade.
John Marshall last made a 1AA final in 2005.
Austin won a 1AA title in 2001, they haven’t been in 1AA since 2004
Mayo won a 1AA title in 2000, that was their last final appearance.

Hastings has a good chance to break that streak should they stay in 1AA. A sophomore goalie struggled this year while South had a senior goalie who set a state tournament save record. In 1AA we see this, Alex Kansas, Charlie Lindgren, etc have all lost then won. I expect McCarville to join that group.

Opinion.....the Texas high school football tournament is now the best. Football doesn’t lose their “top” players to crap junior leagues. Hockey loses some players to the USHL or NTDP but still lose some to tier 2 and tier 3 leagues.

Also, blaming the MSHSL has some merit but but the League gives far too much leeway to the coaches associations. A small minority of coaches, largely from 7A schools, pushed the 2 class hockey through. People from NE Minnesota complaining irk me. Their coaches put the 2 class system as we know it in place.

Rochester youth hockey is a mess. The boards since about 2005 have been about promoting their own kids, not about growing hockey. The list of kids leaving early mimic board members....no coincidence.
Skewed logic goldy. That's like saying southwest MN people irk me for voting in Keith Ellison :-({|=

Mite-dad
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by Mite-dad » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:46 am

The one class tournament would suck and it would have the same 8 teams every year. It would improve nothing.

greenwayraider
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by greenwayraider » Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:32 am

Mite-dad wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:46 am
The one class tournament would suck and it would have the same 8 teams every year. It would improve nothing.
Totally agree. It would kill interest in hockey for newer programs and small schools. That ship has set sail a long time ago.

zooomx
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by zooomx » Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:53 am

greenwayraider wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:32 am
Mite-dad wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:46 am
The one class tournament would suck and it would have the same 8 teams every year. It would improve nothing.
Totally agree. It would kill interest in hockey for newer programs and small schools. That ship has set sail a long time ago.
Yes, I really don't understand the logic behind this effort. The main selling point is "wouldn't it be cool, that once in a generation, if a small school got in and did well against a juggernaut?" I don't know why hockey is looked at so different than other high school sports. We have multiple levels at most sports. As a parent who has seen both my kids teams go to Class A state tournaments, it was a great experience for the players, their friends, the families and the town in general. If it was a large 16 team single class tournament they would not have had that opportunity. The one class solution really only would benefit those hockey purists who want to turn back the clock. The 2 class system is better for the student athletes.

Duluthguy
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by Duluthguy » Thu Mar 21, 2019 9:49 am

goldy313 wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:07 am

Also, blaming the MSHSL has some merit but but the League gives far too much leeway to the coaches associations. A small minority of coaches, largely from 7A schools, pushed the 2 class hockey through. People from NE Minnesota complaining irk me. Their coaches put the 2 class system as we know it in place.
The High School League deserves blame for a lot of things, but in terms of the two-class tournament, the League was against it. Two-classes came about when the legislature got involved and the League was backed into a corner. While the legislators who pushed it were predominantly from the Iron Range area, I don't recall that Section 7 coaches/schools were pushing it. It makes sense to infer that, but I don't recall it ever being reported that way. It was always legislators pushing it. At least that's my memory.

greenwayraider
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by greenwayraider » Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:31 am

That clinches it. If the High School League was against it, it was a good move to go to two classes.

O-townClown
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by O-townClown » Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:51 am

goldy313 wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:07 am
Opinion.....the Texas high school football tournament is now the best. Football doesn’t lose their “top” players to crap junior leagues. Hockey loses some players to the USHL or NTDP but still lose some to tier 2 and tier 3 leagues.
Do you watch it? I'm curious because it has SO MANY DIVISIONS, which makes sense because every community has football and it is a massive state. No matter where you live a school nearby is in the state final at some level. A great spectacle for sure, but it isn't anything like the Minnesota HS tournament.

Colby will be remembered for 50 years as the kid that buried the OT winner. Spehar will never be forgotten. Boucha. Which guy on which team in which division in Texas is the one that history remembers?

It is a different animal entirely. Give me the state tourney from the X with tv coverage across most or all of Minnesota.
Be kind. Rewind.

northwoods oldtimer
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by northwoods oldtimer » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:19 am

Mite-dad wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:46 am
The one class tournament would suck and it would have the same 8 teams every year. It would improve nothing.
But your just a Mite-dad what do you know. :P :lol:

northwoods oldtimer
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by northwoods oldtimer » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:21 am

Duluthguy wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 9:49 am
goldy313 wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:07 am

Also, blaming the MSHSL has some merit but but the League gives far too much leeway to the coaches associations. A small minority of coaches, largely from 7A schools, pushed the 2 class hockey through. People from NE Minnesota complaining irk me. Their coaches put the 2 class system as we know it in place.
The High School League deserves blame for a lot of things, but in terms of the two-class tournament, the League was against it. Two-classes came about when the legislature got involved and the League was backed into a corner. While the legislators who pushed it were predominantly from the Iron Range area, I don't recall that Section 7 coaches/schools were pushing it. It makes sense to infer that, but I don't recall it ever being reported that way. It was always legislators pushing it. At least that's my memory.
Correct!!

northwoods oldtimer
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by northwoods oldtimer » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:23 am

O-townClown wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:51 am
goldy313 wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:07 am
Opinion.....the Texas high school football tournament is now the best. Football doesn’t lose their “top” players to crap junior leagues. Hockey loses some players to the USHL or NTDP but still lose some to tier 2 and tier 3 leagues.
Do you watch it? I'm curious because it has SO MANY DIVISIONS, which makes sense because every community has football and it is a massive state. No matter where you live a school nearby is in the state final at some level. A great spectacle for sure, but it isn't anything like the Minnesota HS tournament.

Colby will be remembered for 50 years as the kid that buried the OT winner. Spehar will never be forgotten. Boucha. Which guy on which team in which division in Texas is the one that history remembers?

It is a different animal entirely. Give me the state tourney from the X with tv coverage across most or all of Minnesota.
=D> =D> =D> =D> =D> =D> =D> =D> =D>

Slap Shot
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by Slap Shot » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:24 am

northwoods oldtimer wrote:
Wed Mar 20, 2019 2:50 pm
yesiplayedhockey wrote:
Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:16 pm
My crystal ball says this (and it's right 50% of the time...The other 50% of the time it's wrong)

Over the next 3,5,10 years I think you will see the same 4-6 teams dominating the class AA tournament

Yes we all know 8 teams get invited and yes a team like a Lakeville South or say Burnsville will occasionally make it to state. But I predict that 70-80% of the time the class AA winner will be one of those same 4-6 teams.. I predict we may never see a state FINAL that didn't at least have one of those 4-6 teams in it

Right now AAA parents are whispering to each other "what if we could keep this AAA team together in the winter? What if we all went there...or here. or or or.

AAA hockey, for all it's good, has actually helped private schools (and some public schools) build their business...I mean team...

I see the trend continuing and growing. I see more and more "high schools" becoming all star teams. Yes the state tournament will still have 8 schools. Yes some schools like LS will get there 1 out every 10 years. But if you're asking me, I believe more time than not, the winner of the state tournament will most likely come from that elite group of same schools.
@yesiplayedhockey NAILED IT!!!
Saying these are, "all star" teams suggests their programs are built off transfers and while programs like Edina, EP, Tonka, MG, Wayzata etc. have a few here and there the vast, VAST majority of their rosters are homegrown.

Also 10 different teams made at least 1 AA final since the 2010 tournament:

Edina 4
Eden Prairie 3
Duluth East 3
Lakeville North 2
Minnetonka 2
Hill-Murray 2
Benilde-St Margaret's 1
Wayzata 1
Grand Rapids 1
Moorhead 1

StanleyCup55
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by StanleyCup55 » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:47 am

I don’t think anybody is saying we should go back to a 1 class system. I just think there are AA teams that play A and those teams should move up to keep with the spirit of allowing other teams a chance to play at state instead of having two state tournaments that have equal caliber teams so the fans can watch a good game. Maybe I’m mistaken on the reason why a second class was created. Maybe it is about fans, money and parents Facebook pages.

I wonder if there are football teams in Texas that sandbag it like Hermantown?

bodyup88
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by bodyup88 » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:23 pm

Football teams don't sandbag in Texas because they are required to play in their size class. Interesting thought, if Minnesota did that your Class A field might include teams like Grand Rapids, STA, Benilde, Cloquet, Hermantown, Hill-Murray, Holy Family, Roseau, etc. Would eliminate the quality of play in Class A debate. To get a quality state tournament you would need to seed vs traditional sections.

Goose21
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by Goose21 » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:45 pm

StanleyCup55 wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:47 am
I don’t think anybody is saying we should go back to a 1 class system. I just think there are AA teams that play A and those teams should move up to keep with the spirit of allowing other teams a chance to play at state instead of having two state tournaments that have equal caliber teams so the fans can watch a good game. Maybe I’m mistaken on the reason why a second class was created. Maybe it is about fans, money and parents Facebook pages.

I wonder if there are football teams in Texas that sandbag it like Hermantown?
So what you are saying is that A should be make weaker, so less talented A programs can go to state? (And other than Hermantown, there aren't really any other AA level programs in A on any consistent basis.)

If that is your goal, then a 3 Class system is needed.
AAA-- Large metro-type programs
AA-- Smaller/less successful current AA and larger current A.
A--true small schools.
Forecheck, Backcheck, Paycheck

7TIMECHAMPS
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by 7TIMECHAMPS » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:55 pm

StanleyCup55 wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:47 am
I don’t think anybody is saying we should go back to a 1 class system. I just think there are AA teams that play A and those teams should move up to keep with the spirit of allowing other teams a chance to play at state instead of having two state tournaments that have equal caliber teams so the fans can watch a good game. Maybe I’m mistaken on the reason why a second class was created. Maybe it is about fans, money and parents Facebook pages.

I wonder if there are football teams in Texas that sandbag it like Hermantown?
Just saying the teams in the class A tournament are not the same caliber as the AA tournament. Most years there is one, maybe 2 teams that would MAYBE make the AA tournament. Using the section I know best (8) EGF is likely a 4-6 seed in 8AA this year. They were the 3 seed at state.

Also, I would like to see some of the aforementioned schools moved to AA (EGF, Alex, etc) just to get cities teams out of 8 but they wouldn’t win the section very often.

EGF bantams against Moorhead and Roseau (top 2 AA bantam teams in section) 0-10, 0-5, 2-9

Alexandria against Moorhead AA- 0-9 (did not play Roseau)

Obviously they had better years than this but right now certainly wouldn’t be the time to move up.

Roseau hasn’t lost a game to an 8A opponent in two years now I believe. They have one overtime playoff win in section tournaments the last two years.

If you want to further dilute the A tournament that is fine but saying they are even close to the same is way off base. Just about every AA section is more difficult than the class A state tournament. I am guessing pagestat would back me up on that. I am too lazy to do it.

northwoods oldtimer
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by northwoods oldtimer » Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:41 pm

StanleyCup55 wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:47 am
I don’t think anybody is saying we should go back to a 1 class system. I just think there are AA teams that play A and those teams should move up to keep with the spirit of allowing other teams a chance to play at state instead of having two state tournaments that have equal caliber teams so the fans can watch a good game. Maybe I’m mistaken on the reason why a second class was created. Maybe it is about fans, money and parents Facebook pages.

I wonder if there are football teams in Texas that sandbag it like Hermantown?
I am a fan of the single tournament. Kids get everything handed to em way too easy including trophies.
Then real world hits entitlement and all heck breaks loose. Managing (baby sitting) some of that product now. #-o

kniven
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by kniven » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:05 pm

greenwayraider wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:32 am
Mite-dad wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:46 am
The one class tournament would suck and it would have the same 8 teams every year. It would improve nothing.
Totally agree. It would kill interest in hockey for newer programs and small schools. That ship has set sail a long time ago.
Agreed. 1 class would be a boner move. I do like the 3 class idea, though.

Goose21
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by Goose21 » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:07 pm

northwoods oldtimer wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:41 pm
StanleyCup55 wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:47 am
I don’t think anybody is saying we should go back to a 1 class system. I just think there are AA teams that play A and those teams should move up to keep with the spirit of allowing other teams a chance to play at state instead of having two state tournaments that have equal caliber teams so the fans can watch a good game. Maybe I’m mistaken on the reason why a second class was created. Maybe it is about fans, money and parents Facebook pages.

I wonder if there are football teams in Texas that sandbag it like Hermantown?
I am a fan of the single tournament. Kids get everything handed to em way too easy including trophies.
Then real world hits entitlement and all heck breaks loose. Managing (baby sitting) some of that product now. #-o
Why do you hate class A? :D
Forecheck, Backcheck, Paycheck

Mite-dad
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by Mite-dad » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:44 pm

northwoods oldtimer wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:19 am
Mite-dad wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:46 am
The one class tournament would suck and it would have the same 8 teams every year. It would improve nothing.
But your just a Mite-dad what do you know. :P :lol:
LOL, I haven't been a mite dad in a long time.

Mite-dad
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by Mite-dad » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:48 pm

Here's a potential solution. Take the top two teams from each section for the AA tournament, start it on Tuesday. Leave the A tournament the same. This would get more new teams into the AA tournament. It might also lure some of the bigger A schools into AA. I could see an Alexandria, EGF, Hermantown, Mahtomedi, SCC, etc. jumping to AA if they would sniff a state tourney once in awhile at the AA level. Just a thought.

elliott70
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by elliott70 » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:59 pm

Mite-dad wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:48 pm
Here's a potential solution. Take the top two teams from each section for the AA tournament, start it on Tuesday. Leave the A tournament the same. This would get more new teams into the AA tournament. It might also lure some of the bigger A schools into AA. I could see an Alexandria, EGF, Hermantown, Mahtomedi, SCC, etc. jumping to AA if they would sniff a state tourney once in awhile at the AA level. Just a thought.
So this year we would have had

Moorhead - Brainerd
Duluth East - Andover
Edina - Benilde
Blaine - Maple Grove
White Bear - Hill Murray
STA - Eagan
Eden Prairie - Holy Family
Lakeville N & S

And to keep DJ happy seed them based on QRF.

northwoods oldtimer
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by northwoods oldtimer » Thu Mar 21, 2019 9:41 pm

kniven wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:05 pm
greenwayraider wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:32 am
Mite-dad wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:46 am
The one class tournament would suck and it would have the same 8 teams every year. It would improve nothing.
Totally agree. It would kill interest in hockey for newer programs and small schools. That ship has set sail a long time ago.
Agreed. 1 class would be a boner move. I do like the 3 class idea, though.
WT are you smoking tonight knivsy?

karl(east)
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by karl(east) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:41 pm

Interesting backstory on the A/AA split and its advocates. (I was in diapers when that happened. We're at the point now where a couple generations have no memory of single-class hockey.)

It made me wonder how many more teams would've gone to state over the past decade if we still had single class hockey. Hermantown, East Grand Forks probably back in its Class A title seasons, maybe(??) Lourdes out of Section 1 at the very start of the decade when the Lakevilles were going with sub-.500 regular season records...but that's about it. Obviously it would depend on how sections are drawn; maybe Elk River and Andover snag one or two if they're not in a section with East and Grand Rapids, and maybe Cathedral this year depending where they are, and Breck at the start of the decade might have gone if not stuffed in a section with Lake Conference teams. But we're talking 2-3 more teams maybe.

I'm not in favor of a 3-class system or anything that expands the field either, really. Going to State should be an achievement. I think section finals are as fun, if not more fun, than State at times, and if they become the equivalent of current section semis, or if teams only need to win two games to get there, sections start to lose their luster. Anyone who worships the Tourney but ignores everything that comes before that misses half the fun.

I realize there are a bunch of AA schools that can't compete with what we might call the elite tier of schools, and I don't think blocking opt-ups would strengthen the Class A tournament since it would really just strengthen the Class A sections that are already the best sections. One thing I think they could do is limit AA to 64 teams and bump low-enrollment schools down to A to accommodate the opt-ups.

If I sound like I'm just I'm just defending the status quo, it's probably because I'm skeptical of the long-term effectiveness of any administrative switch to address trends whose root causes are far beyond the control of a high school league. The MSHSL isn't exactly at the top of my Christmas card list these days, but it isn't the reason or that inner city schools looking nothing like they did 50 years ago, or the reason some suburbs have come to have stunning concentrations of wealth relative to others, or the reason that school choice/free agency has become widespread (though I do think the two-class split accelerated that for hockey reasons), or the reason the mines on the Iron Range now produce the same amount of ore they did 40 years ago with one third of the workforce. This is the world we live in.

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