AA Rankings for 12/29/19

[karl(east)]

Chaos. Beautiful, beautiful chaos.

1. White Bear Lake (8-0-1)
-The Bears got to watch in amusement as carnage unfolded around them, and they now find themselves the lone undefeated team in AA. I don’t love them at #1, given their relative lack of quality wins, but at this point, they’re easier to justify here than struggling Eden Prairie, an Andover team that just lost a game, and a Moorhead team that is surging but isn’t going to jump over ten spots in one week. I don’t foresee either of their opponents this week giving them a real challenge, so this has a chance to stick for a little while, at the very least.
This week: Thurs vs. Irondale, Sat at Forest Lake

2. Eden Prairie (8-1-1)
-The previously top-ranked Eagles appeared suddenly very mortal in all three of their Hockey for Life games. If I had to throw the blame somewhere, it would probably be on the offense: they’ve been held to two goals or less in three of their last four, which just isn’t good enough for a team with their firepower across two lines. That’s probably a better place to be in than having it the other way around, and they’ve got Jackson Blake looming as their white knight to reinforce the attack, too. But for now, it’s a clear indicator that there are no superteams this season, and they’re very beatable by a disciplined, tough squad. By their schedule’s standards they now enter a bit of a lull, which could help get things on track.
This week: Thurs at Prior Lake, Sat at Buffalo

3. Andover (8-2)
-Like Eden Prairie, the Huskies encountered some adversity in their holiday tournament; they responded well when tested by Rosemount, but came up short against Minnetonka. No team is deeper top to bottom, and their top defensive pair is elite; on the flip side, the goaltending hasn’t always been ideal, and they don’t have the top-end offensive firepower of a couple of the other top teams. This week’s battle with Moorhead should be fascinating.
This week: Tues at #4 Moorhead

4. Moorhead (9-2-1)
-The Spuds were the biggest winners of the holiday season as they pulled out tight wins over Edina and Eden Prairie and put Lakeville North in running time for good measure. They play smart and disciplined defense, have a potent top line, and enjoy the services of an elite goaltender. In 2019-2020 high school hockey, that’s enough to make a team a front-line contender for a title. The tests keep coming this week, as Andover and Benilde make road trips to the northwest; they have a chance to leap to #2, and possibly even #1, with a good showing. They also need to avoid a trap game against a section opponent in between those two, as that has been their issue so far.
This week: Tues vs. #3 Andover, Thurs vs. Rogers, Sat vs. #13 Benilde-St. Margaret’s

5. Rosemount (10-2)
-The Irish had their chance to knock off Andover but couldn’t hang on, and followed that up with methodical, if not overwhelming, wins over Maple Grove and Elk River. They can skate with anyone and score on anyone, but need to find a way to ride their strength and play lockdown defense. They have a couple of big section games this week, one of which is their chance to set the bar in 3AA.
This week: Thurs vs. #11 St. Thomas Academy, Sat vs. Eagan

6. Maple Grove (8-2)
-All things considered it wasn’t a bad showing in St. Louis Park for the Crimson; they gave Rosemount a good test, beat an improving Minnetonka team, and collected a quality win against Lakeville South. Their two losses are both to very good teams and they’ve got some legitimate good wins (including that now pretty good-looking Moorhead win), so they’d seem to belong up here. Just one game this week, but it’s one of their biggest one to date.
This week: Thurs at #14 Blaine

7. Wayzata (8-3-1)
-After an 0-3 start, the Trojans are 8-0-1 in their last nine and quietly making a move up the charts. They don’t have eye-popping talent, but in a season where few teams do, the defensive focus and discipline of the Wayzata Way could well be a winning formula. They open Lake play against surging Minnetonka.
This week: Thurs vs. Minnetonka

8. Blake (9-3)
-While the Bears’ draw in Wayzata wasn’t the toughest out there, they took care of business with three straight wins, including a key section victory over Cretin. Leaving aside the ugly scoreline against Hill, they’ve been pretty consistent and have earned a solid top ten spot. St. Michael-Albertville, which has given a couple of top teams problems, is up next.
This week: Sat at St. Michael-Albertville

9. Edina (6-5-1)
-The Hornets continue to nest into this portion of the rankings. Every game they play seems to be a close one—they have 6 one-goal affairs, 2 two-goal contests, and a tie in 12 games—so they’re certainly building their experience for big games down the stretch. Is there any reason to expect anything different in their home-and-home with Hill?
This week: Fri at #10 Hill-Murray, Sat vs. #10 Hill-Murray

10. Hill-Murray (7-2-2)
-After a strong start, the sputtering Pioneers have now won just one of their past five. The tie against St. Michael-Albertville was the first genuine red flag; there’s no real trend to these results either, as they struggled to score against White Bear and St. Thomas, while the back end seems to have let them down more against Wayzata and STMA. A decent performance against Edina this week would help restore some order.
This week: Fri vs. #9 Edina, Sat at #9 Edina

11. St. Thomas Academy (5-4-2)
-The Cadets’ tie with Eden Prairie was another step toward respectability; if nothing else, they’ve been knocking decent teams off their game, as both Hill and the Eagles have struggled since their ties with the Cadets. Paradoxically, that doesn’t help the Cadets as much as it could; they still lost to Edina this past week also. But if they continue to find this level of consistency, they’ll continue to climb. They can prove a lot in Rosemount this week, and their Saturday conference game isn’t a pushover, either.
This week: Thurs at #5 Rosemount, Sat at Mahtomedi

12. Cretin-Derham Hall (8-3)
-It’s always welcome when I can put a team behind all the teams they’ve lost to and ahead of all the teams they’ve beaten, and that’s the case with the Raiders this week. With no section games left on the schedule, the Blake loss was a costly one; they’re now largely at the whims of everyone else in this section for seeding. That said, the Blaine win was a sign that they can light the lamp and compete with other top teams, and their showing against Blake did nothing to suggest they’re not right there with everyone else in the section.
This week: Thurs at Park (Cottage Grove)

13. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (6-4-2)
-For a moment I thought the Red Knights might have turned a corner when they rolled past Lakeville South, but that win was swiftly followed by a reversion to little offense against Minnetonka. The narrow win over Holy Family didn’t earn them any style points, either. Surging Moorhead makes for a tough opponent this week and gives them a chance to escape this rut.
This week: Sat at #4 Moorhead

14. Blaine (6-4)
-Here we have a team whose body of work to date doesn’t seem to equal the sum of its parts. They’ve shown an ability to romp over weak teams and have a win over Edina, but have otherwise struggled against other top teams. They get a shot at fixing that in their most important game to date this week, they follow that up with another section rival.
This week: Thurs vs. #6 Maple Grove, Sat at Centennial

15. Lakeville South (7-3)
-The Cougars got exposed in St. Louis Park, where they conceded six and five goals to Benilde and Maple Grove, respectively. The Rosemount win still points to a high ceiling, but they need to find ways to contain stronger teams. The Duluth East game this week could be an interesting one.
This week: Tues at Duluth East, Sat at Farmington

The Next Ten

Minnetonka (5-6)
-Put the Skippers among the big winners of the holiday tournaments; while they fell in a competitive game against Maple Grove, they came back with a signature win over Andover and followed that up with a quality win over Benilde. They still have some ways to go before climbing too much further, but with their schedule they’ll certainly have their chances to prove themselves, beginning with a couple of teams that have been on the upswing this week in Wayzata and Duluth East.

Stillwater (7-1)
-The Ponies were idle this past week and remain something of a mystery team, as their loss to Eden Prairie remains their only game to date against a top 25 team. Duluth East this week gives them another one.

Roseau (9-3)
-The Rams cruised their way through their annual tournament. Just one game this coming week, but it has some section implications, as they travel to Brainerd.

Grand Rapids (5-4)
-The Thunderhawks got a useful section win by finishing off Forest Lake on Friday. Holy Family, a team with some upset potential, is their only opponent this coming week.

Duluth East (5-4)
-Weather postponed the Hounds’ date with Champlin Park and left them idle for the week. That will not be the case this coming week, as they take on three teams that are all just a few spots above them: Lakeville South, Stillwater, and Minnetonka. Is this team improving on its way to contention, or merely an occasional upset threat?

Hastings (8-1)
-The Raiders keep on winning against teams that don’t provide much grounds for comparison. They could get a respectable Eagan team later in the ongoing South St. Paul tournament this week; Champlin Park will follow that over the coming weekend.

Lakeville North (7-3-1)
-The Panthers provided a little of everything in Prior Lake; they thumped Totino, were in turn thumped themselves by Moorhead, and game back from a two-goal third period deficit to rescue a win, and thereby their top 25 status, in a win over the tournament hosts. A lone game against Eastview awaits them.

Prior Lake (6-4-1)
-The Lakers have some decent results like a win over Minnetonka and a shellacking of Burnsville, but are trending toward mediocrity after losses to Chaska and Lakeville North. They get a crack at limping Eden Prairie this week.

Burnsville (7-2-1)
-Didn’t play anyone notable in the Hilltopper Holiday Classic, but this team is winning consistently enough to stay in the top 25. They’ll aim for more of the same this week against Champlin Park and Apple Valley.

St. Michael-Albertville (3-5-2)
-Rough as the record is, this team does have a pair of top ten ties against Moorhead and Hill. They can strengthen their station in 8AA against Buffalo this week and also get to try to trip up

Section Update

1AA
21 Hastings
22 Lakeville North
15 Lakeville South
Rochester Century
-How things can change in a hurry: after looking like it might have two top ten teams a couple of weeks ago, this section has become something of a mess. That’s good news for Hastings, which continues to plug along, and will get a legitimate test against St. Thomas in the next two weeks; their record may set them up for the top seed again. Rochester Century, meanwhile, can make a pretty good case along similar lines, and arguably has been doing this with more style points; they were my first team out of the top 25, and we’ll get some perspective on the Panthers when they face Farmington this week. Meanwhile, South has the best overall credentials, but still lost to North, so this is going to take some time to sort itself out. Century also has an Owatonna team with a decent record next week.

2AA
2 Eden Prairie
16 Minnetonka
23 Prior Lake
Chaska
-Here’s another section that looks very different from where it was two weeks ago. At the time, it looked like Eden Prairie might run away with the thing; now, Chaska has taken Eden Prairie to overtime and Minnetonka has knocked off a top 5 team. Minnetonka, Chaska, and Prior Lake are now trapped in a transitive property loop of death, so seeding could come down to overall credentials unless the Skippers can do something in one of their two games against Eden Prairie. (For now, in my mind, body of work still favors the Skippers, though their record may hurt them here.) Holy Family lurks somewhere in here with an outside chance at a top-4 seed, too.

3AA
5 Rosemount
11 St. Thomas Academy
24 Burnsville
Eastview
-St. Thomas’s surge has this section building toward a competitive section final: Rosemount may have the talent, but the Irish will have to get good goaltending and perform on the big stage. Those two will collide in a potential section final preview on Thursday. Burnsville is presently undefeated in section play, so I’m slotting the Blaze in at #3, and Eastview does have a win over St. Thomas that should help its seeding standing.

4AA
1 White Bear Lake
10 Hill-Murray
16 Stillwater
Mounds View
-For a second season in a row, White Bear has its win over Hill and a likely top seed. The first of the White Bear-Stillwater meetings is next week, which will help tell us if the Ponies are among the contenders with the top two or not. Mounds View has a couple of section wins so I’m dropping them in at #4 for now, but that race is pretty wide open at this point.

5AA
6 Maple Grove
14 Blaine
Centennial
Totino-Grace
-Between the Kukkonen injury and Blaine’s inconsistency, this section has become a realm of mystery. It also appears to be very much a two-team race, as neither Centennial nor Totino has looked ready for primetime in their big games to date. The first of the two meetings between the big two takes place Thursday, and both also play Centennial over the next two weeks.

6AA
7 Wayzata
8 Blake
9 Edina
12 Cretin-Derham Hall
13 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
-Well, this is an adventure. All five of the listed teams are either 1-1 or 1-1-1 against one another, so head-to-head really can’t help us sort this out; for now, I’m just going to punt and list them in ranking order. What will help are the two Edina-Wayzata Lake meetings and a Benilde-Blake game. If the Hornets and Trojans split and that other game ends in a tie, we might as well just toss some sticks in a pile and pull them out for seeds.

7AA
3 Andover
19 Grand Rapids
Cloquet
20 Duluth East
-No major changes here over the past two weeks other than reality setting in for Forest Lake somewhat; we’ll see if and when QRF catches up. East and Rapids play an important section game next week, with the winner likely positioning itself well for a 2-seed.

8AA
4 Moorhead
17 Roseau
25 St. Michael-Albertville
Brainerd
-No one is unblemished within section play in 8AA, but Moorhead is doing enough overall to make a strong case for the top seed, and Roseau is still in position to nab it if they can beat the Spuds a second time. Things tail off after that; Brainerd now has two wins over Buffalo, which makes it hard to put the Bison at #4 despite the Roseau win.

[Traxler]

Great rankings, as usual, Karl. You may want to adjust the topic to 12/29 to prevent confusion in a month.

[O-townClown]

This looks great, Karl. Great work as always. Will be interesting to contrast with PageStat.

[SEC Scotty]

Great job Karl. Tough week to rank teams. Tough to win 3 games back to back.

We can debate whether WBL deserves to be #1 having not played this weekend. What I do know is there are 12 players on that team that won a state AA bantam title. This team is very tight and play extremely well as a team.

You could take your top 5 and put them in any order and it would work. Big game Tuedsay with Morehead hosting Andover.
Of your top 10 teams I haven't had a chance to see Morehead, or Blake. Was going to go to Morehead-Eden Prairie before the ice storm yesterday morning.

[LASERBLUE135]

Don’t like WB as #1, but it’s just rankings so it doesn’t really mean anything. One could easily imagine if they played a gauntlet schedule this week they would have likely dropped one of 3 games (that’s just how it goes when teams are this even). I like Andover at #1 as they have looked the best against the best. EP had a tough weekend so I don’t think #2 makes sense. They could have gone 0-3 pretty easily. When there is this much chaos I prefer the...what have you done for me lately? Morehead Wayzata Andover Maple Grove all have been very solid as of late. Based on this weeks rankings WB has hardly been tested compared to the rest of the top 5 or even top 10.

[WestMetro]

Nice work.

Interesting contrasts below , using these top 25. Ill pick three in each category. Excuse errors or omissions. Others offer their opinions.

Based on cumulative record, without regarding SOS:

WBL
Stillwater
Hastings

Based on cumulative record , and reflecting SOS, not sure of this, but guessing below:

EP
MG
Wayz

Based on recent momemtum against top teams:

MH
Wayz
Blake


Based on # division 1 players

EP
Several others in next batch


Based on Best Goalie, and With a Team That Could Steal a State Trny Title

MH
HM

[OBOY]

WBL by default right now..

Andover beats Moorhead and Rosemount beats St Thomas those two teams would be locks with the top 2 spots.

EP is looking a lot like last years Chaska squad. Lots of big names don’t translate to wins. Right now EP has one win against a top 10 team and that’s Edina which is a very suspect top 10 team. After the weekend EP had surprised they would make anyone’s top 5.

Moorhead great weekend but still have losses to MG and Roseau and a tie with STMA.

[karl(east)]

PS2's offering:

1. Andover
2. Eden Prairie
3. Hill-Murray
4. Maple Grove
5. Cretin-Derham Hall
6. Rosemount
7. Moorhead
8. Blake
9. Wayzata
10. White Bear Lake
11. Edina
12. Minnetonka
13. Lakeville South
14. St. Thomas Academy
15. Benilde-St. Margaret's
16. Blaine
17. Prior Lake
18. Duluth East
19. Grand Rapids
20. Lakeville North
21. Stillwater
22. Chaska
23. Roseau
24. STMA
25. Cloquet

I figured it wouldn't be high on the Bears, but that's a pretty big gap. Hill and CDH noticeably higher, but nothing else too crazy among the top 15.

[ryguyMN]

Pretty solid, Karl.

The playoffs will be a lot of fun this year if this parity holds up. Any team in the top 20 is capable of making some noise. While the talent pool might not be there like past few seasons (C. Mittelstadt, Sam Walker, the Grand Rapids trio of McLaughlin, Hain, and Miller, etc.), it’s shaping up to be very competitive.

[Section 8 guy]

WBL by default right now..

Andover beats Moorhead and Rosemount beats St Thomas those two teams would be locks with the top 2 spots.

EP is looking a lot like last years Chaska squad. Lots of big names don’t translate to wins. Right now EP has one win against a top 10 team and that’s Edina which is a very suspect top 10 team. After the weekend EP had surprised they would make anyone’s top 5.

Moorhead great weekend but still have losses to MG and Roseau and a tie with STMA.

Mr. Common, I’d like to nominate this EP take for Preposterous Statement of the Year. Thanks.

[northwoods oldtimer]

WBL by default right now..

Andover beats Moorhead and Rosemount beats St Thomas those two teams would be locks with the top 2 spots.

EP is looking a lot like last years Chaska squad. Lots of big names don’t translate to wins. Right now EP has one win against a top 10 team and that’s Edina which is a very suspect top 10 team. After the weekend EP had surprised they would make anyone’s top 5.

Moorhead great weekend but still have losses to MG and Roseau and a tie with STMA.

GO BEARS!!

Wonder how the parent pregame and post games are going for EP? LOL

[elliott70]

QRF 12-30-19
1 Andover (8-2) 91.7
2 Maple Grove (8-2 ) 91.6
3 Eden Prairie (8-1-1) 90.1
4 Rosemount (10-2) 84.7
5 White Bear Lake (8-0-1) 83.6

6 Moorhead (9-2-1) 80.9
7 Lakeville South (7-3) 79.3
8 Blake (9-3) 79.1
9 Wayzata (8-3-1) 78.8
10 Stillwater Area (7-1) 78.1

11 Lakeville North (7-3-1) 73.1
12 Burnsville (7-2-1) 72.3
13 Cretin-Derham Hall (8-3) 71.9
14 Holy Angels (8-2) 70.7
15 Hill-Murray (7-2-2) 67.2

16 Hastings (8-1) 66.4
17 Roseau (9-3) 66.1
18 Rochester Century (10-1) 65.9
19 Prior Lake (6-4-1) 64.7
20 Edina (6-5-1)

[ryguyMN]

The QRF and LSQ seem to be the most kind to White Bear. I see the PS2 strength of schedule for WBL is 35, so that makes sense why there was a bigger gap in the overall ranking there. https://www.minnhock.com/strength.htm. When a Lake Conference team is on top, the strength of schedule ranking usually correlates to overall ranking.

[goldy313]

Jefferson leads Hastings 6-2 after 2 periods. The Jags scored 6 goals on 14 shots.....

[bardown27]

Jefferson leads Hastings 6-2 after 2 periods. The Jags scored 6 goals on 14 shots.....

Was McCarville in net?

[WarmUpTheBus]

Jefferson leads Hastings 6-2 after 2 periods. The Jags scored 6 goals on 14 shots.....

Was McCarville in net?

Was anyone in net?

[LASERBLUE135]

Losses by #1,2,4,6,7,and 11...should have just taken the week off from rankings

[OBOY]

WBL by default right now..

Andover beats Moorhead and Rosemount beats St Thomas those two teams would be locks with the top 2 spots.

EP is looking a lot like last years Chaska squad. Lots of big names don’t translate to wins. Right now EP has one win against a top 10 team and that’s Edina which is a very suspect top 10 team. After the weekend EP had surprised they would make anyone’s top 5.

Moorhead great weekend but still have losses to MG and Roseau and a tie with STMA.

Mr. Common, I’d like to nominate this EP take for Preposterous Statement of the Year. Thanks.

Still looking Preposterous?

[Section 8 guy]

Yep. EP will be just fine. They will have a tougher time getting out of their section than they planned but so will some other teams. 18-19 Chaska to 19-20 EP is not a good analogy. No correlation at all in overall talent or depth.

[OBOY]

Yep. EP will be just fine. They will have a tougher time getting out of their section than they planned but so will some other teams. 18-19 Chaska to 19-20 EP is not a good analogy. No correlation at all in overall talent or depth.

Right! What did Chaska have, four or five D1 commits? Two NHL draft picks. And some would say the best D Koester in the State to go along with all the hype. Your right no comparison.

[hockey59]

LOL...Karl put the kiss of death on WBL

[Section 8 guy]

We’ll have to agree to disagree.

EP has noticeably more overall depth and probably better top end talent as well. At least depth of it. Most people that know this age group saw through the Chaska hype all along. Was EP overhyped? Yes. Is there plenty of there there? Absolutely.

[muckandgrinder65]

If you define talent by D1 commits, star power, and prospect status then EP gets the 1 spot.
If you define talent by experience, compete level, zone-time, power play, and grit, Andover gets the 1 spot.
(Didn't Andover have 5 players in Elite League?)

[InThePipes]

If you define talent by D1 commits, star power, and prospect status then EP gets the 1 spot.
If you define talent by experience, compete level, zone-time, power play, and grit, Andover gets the 1 spot.
(Didn't Andover have 5 players in Elite League?)

Yes Andover had 5, so they have plenty of talent.

[ryguyMN]

Still too early to write off EP with Jackson Blake joining the varsity squad in less than a month. Oddly, if EP succeeds with Blake, it might actually divide the HS hockey community and hurt interest with the controversy over his transfer status.