AA Rankings for 1/5/20

[karl(east)]

Last week’s attempt didn’t exactly hold up, did it? Such is high school hockey this season. Let’s try again this week:

1. Andover (9-2)
-The Huskies took care of a strong Moorhead team this past Tuesday, and with carnage striking the teams that were above them last week, it’s hard not to say they look like the most complete team in the state right now. A busy week awaits them, with a game against a top Class A team being the headliner.
This week: Tues vs. St. Cloud Cathedral, Thurs at Totino-Grace, Sat vs. Champlin Park

2. Rosemount (12-2)
-The Irish pulled out an important section win against St. Thomas and beat conference rival Eagan in solid defensive fashion. Finally, they looked like the thing I’ve been saying they are since I saw them on opening weekend: a team built for playoff success. If they continue to ride the state’s deepest defense, they’ll be a very tough out, even if the offense isn’t always explosive. It’s strictly conference play the rest of the way for them now, which means a lot of potentially competitive games but few against elite teams; that will certainly be the theme this coming week.
This week: Thurs vs. Lakeville North, Sat at Eastview

3. Moorhead (11-3-1)
-The Spuds couldn’t overcome Andover’s attack, though they did find a way to pull out a win over Benilde, and with enough other teams dropping and no one stepping up to fill the void, they slide up a spot to #3, which will have to do. An elite Class A team headlines the coming week, and they follow that up with a section opponent.
This week: Tues at East Grand Forks, Sat vs. St. Cloud

4. Eden Prairie (9-2-1)
-The Eagles lost to Prior Lake, adding to a string of recent questionable results. Some perspective is in order: they’re still only a two-loss team against a difficult schedule. Of more concern is their health and ability to jell as a team going forward; any aura of overwhelming star power is certainly gone now, and they’re on even footing with a lot of other teams just scrapping for wins. Some northern teams come down to visit them this weekend.
This week: Fri vs. Cloquet, Sat vs. Duluth East

5. White Bear Lake (9-1-1)
-Well, that didn’t last long: a loss to Irondale immediately knocked the Bears from the top spot. While my comments last week showed my skepticism of having them that high, I certainly wasn’t expecting that. The Hill win is doing a lot of work for them in the rankings right now; if not for so many other top ten teams losing, they would have dropped even further. This coming week, in which they face two pretty good teams, will be telling.
This week: Thurs vs. Stillwater, Sat vs. #13 Minnetonka

6. Hill-Murray (9-2-2)
-After spending a few weeks in the doghouse, the Pioneers on the upswing again after a weekend sweep of Edina. If they can keep that improved defense rolling this coming week, I’m on board with them being in the top five again. The talent is there.
This week: Thurs vs. Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat at Mahtomedi

7. Blake (10-3)
-In this week’s edition of “let’s throw things at the wall and see what sticks,” we have the Bears, who thumped a decent St. Michael-Albertville team in their only action this past week. Their three losses are all to good teams and they have a win over #1, so on the whole, their résumé isn’t looking bad right now. On paper, this should stick for at least a week before they start facing a few more tests.
This week: Tues vs. St. Paul Academy, Sat at Breck

8. Maple Grove (8-3)
-In another example of this season not making sense, the Crimson, who had been pretty consistent all along, got beaten by up-and-down Blaine in a crucial section game. They lost despite a comfortable shots edge, which raises the question of where their goals are coming from and if they can match Blaine’s top-end talent in big moments. Their first game this week gives them a chance to bring some order to a topsy-turvy 5AA.
This week: Thurs at Centennial, Sat at Coon Rapids

9. Cretin-Derham Hall (9-3)
-The Raiders took their time but eventually rolled past Park to stay on theme. The week ahead is the most challenging one left on their schedule, as it includes both a challenging conference opponent and a top Class A team.
This week: Tues at Stillwater, Thurs vs. Forest Lake, Sat at Hermantown

10. Lakeville South (9-3)
-The Cougars made things look easy this past week when they thumped respectable Duluth East and Farmington teams. If they can keep this going against pesky Prior Lake and Edina this coming week, they’ll be in business.
This week: Thurs vs. #14 Prior Lake, Sat at #15 Edina

11. Wayzata (8-4-1)
-The Trojans’ momentum skipped a beat this past week when they fell to Minnetonka, but there’s enough chaos that they don’t drop far. They make a circuit of their new conference opponents this week.
This week: Thurs at St. Michael-Albertville, Sat vs. Buffalo

12. Blaine (7-5)
-The Bengals are swiftly becoming one of the more aggravating teams out there, as they picked up what seemed like a huge section win against Maple Grove and then went and lost to Centennial. The 5AA rivalries aren’t conforming to expectation at all this season, and this team can sometimes give up goals in bunches. That said, they have a rare collection of scoring talent that deserves some respect, and as a result stay toward the front end of the next messy group. They should collect a few wins this week.
This week: Thurs at Osseo, Sat vs. Armstrong/Cooper

13. Minnetonka (6-7)
-In a week that summed up the absurdity of this high school season in a nutshell, the Skippers kept their roll going by taking down Wayzata but then struggled to score in a loss to Duluth East. They have a shot at another quality win this week when they face White Bear.
This week: Thurs vs. Buffalo, Sat at #5 White Bear Lake

14. Prior Lake (8-4-1)
-A win over Eden Prairie has the Lakers trending upward and showing that they are indeed dangerous in 2AA; they climb up here now that they have two wins over Lake teams, even though they have a few more middling results also. If they can keep this going against teams like Burnsville and Lakeville South this coming week, they could start to build some momentum.
This week: Tues vs. Burnsville, Sat at #10 Lakeville South

15. Edina (6-7-1)
-The Hornets suffered a total power outage against Hill and failed to muster a goal across two games. There was always some question about the caliber of this offense, and that was in evidence this past week despite their obvious skating ability. Now, can they rebound against a somewhat easier stretch of their schedule?
This week: Tues at St. Michael-Albertville, Sat vs. #10 Lakeville South

The Next Ten

Stillwater (8-1)
-The Ponies passed their second test against a somewhat decent team and continue to loom here as a team that could actually be good. We might find out just how good this week when they face the top two teams in their conference, Cretin and White Bear. A win would likely get them into the top 15.

Benilde-St. Margaret’s (6-5-2)
-The Red Knights gave Moorhead a good fight but fell short, a result that is generally true to their recent form; I have them toward the back of these teams with good schedules and mediocre records because they don’t have the number of quality wins that Minnetonka and Edina do. Another week with just one game against a front-end opponent awaits them as they pay a visit to Aldrich to face Hill.

St. Thomas Academy (5-6-2)
-The Cadets showed that a section championship is certainly within the realm of possibility when they fought Rosemount to a close loss, but they still appear a step behind the Irish, and a loss to Mahtomedi doesn’t help matters, either. For now, they’re just not showing the consistency they need to be a top 15 team. Their schedule eases up considerably now, with decent Hastings being their lone opponent this coming week.

Lakeville North (8-3-1)
-The Panthers stayed on track with a workmanlike effort against Eastview. Up next: the top team in the South Suburban who just got my kiss of death from a new high ranking in Rosemount, plus respectable Eagan.

Roseau (10-3)
-The Rams took care of business against Brainerd. They now enter a stretch of Class A tests on their schedule, including a game in which they host their undefeated mortal rivals down Highway 11 on Tuesday.

Duluth East (6-6)
-After a listless start to the week, the Hounds pulled out a win over Minnetonka to keep themselves afloat in the rankings. When things go downhill for this team, they really seem to go downhill, but they also have a decent collection of good wins now, which shows they can be dangerous when they play the way they want to. A busy week includes an improving crosstown rival in Denfeld, a huge 7AA tilt in Grand Rapids, and a visit to the wounded but skilled Eagles of Eden Prairie.

Grand Rapids (5-5)
-The Thunderhawks join the club of teams that seems capable of controlling the puck but struggles to put good opponents away, as evidenced by their loss to Holy Family. Their week ahead is as big as it gets, as they face Class A power Hermantown, their biggest AA rival in a section battle in Duluth East, and their greatest geographic rival in Greenway.

St. Michael-Albertville (4-6-2)
-Rolled past Buffalo, but could not keep pace with Blake. While they don’t have any real quality wins, they do have a couple of quality ties and haven’t lost to anyone they shouldn’t lose to. That’s enough to keep them afloat here.

Champlin Park (8-4)
-The Rebels had a pretty good week for a mid-level team with wins over Burnsville and Hastings; as they’ve now amassed a decent record, they thus get a little credit here. Andover looms this coming week.

Burnsville (8-3-1)
-Lost to Champlin, which was the first bump in another wise decent stretch of wins against middling competition, and everyone else on the long list of teams I considered here feels just one win short of deserving mention. Prior Lake gives them a chance to do something this week.

[WestMetro]

Good logic and writeup!

Good line!

“The Hornets suffered a total power outage ...”

[Sparlimb]

Its really a crap shoot this year. Every team has warts. And that means a lot of teams will have a chance in sections. There will be many upsets. And as we all know, HAL will predict most of them. I still like what Moorhead has done, but you can't argue with Andover and Rosemount too.

[muckandgrinder65]

Based on these rankings it looks to be a 2 horse race as Andover pretty much dominated the Spuds in a 4-1 score.
Spuds lone goal against Andover was a dump in on the goalie who was sleeping and it could have been 7 or 8-1 if not for the Spuds elite goalie.
I think Hill is probably 3 and EP 4 with Moorhead and WBL tied for 5

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

That had to be the biggest Irondale win since '80 or '81. I'd been hoping WBL would stay #1 for another 2 or 3 weeks. I brought up the game to one guy who said, "Irondale still has a hockey team???"

I did see Lechner rooting around in a janitor's closet at Braemar in search of a broom last night.

I do expect one or two teams will get it together and become favorites in the next month. But maybe not.

[O-townClown]

1. Andover (9-2) -- PS2 rank #1
2. Rosemount (12-2) -- 4
3. Moorhead (11-3-1) -- 9
4. Eden Prairie (9-2-1) -- 5
5. White Bear Lake (9-1-1) -- 17
6. Hill-Murray (9-2-2) -- 2
7. Blake (10-3) -- 3
8. Maple Grove (8-3) -- 8
9. Cretin-Derham Hall (9-3) -- 6
10. Lakeville South (9-3) -- 7
11. Wayzata (8-4-1) -- 10
12. Blaine (7-5) -- 15
13. Minnetonka (6-7) -- 11
14. Prior Lake (8-4-1) -- 12
15. Edina (6-7-1) -- 13
Stillwater (8-1) -- 18
Benilde-St. Margaret’s (6-5-2) -- 14
St. Thomas Academy (5-6-2) -- 16
Lakeville North (8-3-1) -- 19
Roseau (10-3) -- 20
Duluth East (6-6) -- 24
Grand Rapids (5-5) -- 23
St. Michael-Albertville (4-6-2) -- 25
Champlin Park (8-4)
Burnsville (8-3-1)
Chaska -- 21
Holy Family -- 22

[StanleyCup55]

This year has the feeling of a lot of upsets come section time. Seems very unpredictable as to who is going to win each night as a lot of teams can compete. I can’t think of a section in AA right now where the top seed is safe. Even in 7AA where Andover is the clear favorite but East has won some big games and so has Rapids. 5AA is now wide open. Going to be fun to watch down the stretch here but can’t wait for about a month when the playoffs start.

[WestMetro]

Our good friend O-Town Clown made the point at Braemar the other night . The 4 and 5 seed game in Section 6 this year will feature 2 teams who might be capable with a little puck luck of winning 6 straight games for the state title .

[goldy313]

My 1AA take

McCarvillle has about a .800 save percentage in his last 3 games.....that is against such stalwart competition as Jefferson, Hopkins, and Champlin Park. That won’t get it done come sections.....he was awful against South in sections last year and this may be more of a trend than a single bad game. Hastings was a #1 seed last year and even though they returned nearly everyone they better turn it around or will struggle to get a home quarterfinal game. The Raiders are underachieving on an epic scale thus far. It is not all goaltending as they outshoot most everyone but can’t score but their backend has been awful. Will Welch have the guts to change goalies?

Century showed it is great against bad competition, but can’t beat average or better teams. They went into the third period tied with Dodge County, beat a bad Bemidji team, then lost to Farmington and tied South Saint Paul. Schedule matters and playing one of the worst in AA doesn’t mean much when you can’t beat anyone in the top half to 2/3. They have a bunch of good players and could compete against anyone but feast on such a poor schedule any adversity....their record speaks for itself. Another underachieving team.

Owatonna lost to Denfeld, I can forgive an early season loss when the football team played into November but to Denfeld? Maybe the Hunters will prove me wrong this week. Owatonna hosts Century in a big game this week. They play a tougher schedule than Century, will it pay off? IMHO they are the team who could break the Lakeville dominance in 1AA.

Both Lakeville teams should continue to be the class of 1AA as the rest of the teams do nothing to challenge them. South seems to be the class of the section with North just behind them followed by a huge drop off. Maybe Hastings can turn it around, they have the talent. Maybe Owatonna puts it together and makes a run or Century’s entitled top scorers figure out they actually have to play hockey in their defensive end. At th Is point none are likely. The hope is that Lakeville will be not be the top two seeds and then have to play each other prior to the finals but they look pretty locked in as of now.

[elliott70]

QRF 1-6-2020
1 Andover (9-2) 106.2
2 Rosemount (12-2) 94.9
3 Maple Grove (8-3) 94.7
4 Lakeville South (9-3) 89.0
5 Stillwater Area (8-1) 88.8
T-6 Blake (10-3) 87.4
T-6 Eden Prairie (9-2-1) 87.4
8 White Bear Lake (9-1-1) 85.6
9 Moorhead (11-3-1) 84.5
10 Lakeville North (8-3-1) 83.6
11 Wayzata (8-4-1) 80.8
12 Hill-Murray (9-2-2) 80.2
13 Cretin-Derham Hall (9-3) 78.9
14 Prior Lake (8-4-1) 77.9
15 Burnsville (8-3-1) 76.8
16 Roseau (10-3) 73.8
17 Holy Angels (8-3) 72.3
18 Farmington (5-4-1) 69.8
19 Eagan (9-4) 69.7
20 Blaine (7-5) 68.9
21 Owatonna (9-2) 66.0
22 Champlin Park (8-4) 64.7
23 Eastview (6-5-1) 64.2
24 Hastings (9-3) 63.5
25 Duluth East (6-6) 62.9

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

This year has the feeling of a lot of upsets come section time. Seems very unpredictable as to who is going to win each night as a lot of teams can compete. I can’t think of a section in AA right now where the top seed is safe. Even in 7AA where Andover is the clear favorite but East has won some big games and so has Rapids. 5AA is now wide open. Going to be fun to watch down the stretch here but can’t wait for about a month when the playoffs start.

Well, maybe. The landscape is pretty flat this season. I suppose whenever a 2 or 3 defeats a it's an upset, but when there is a lot of parity, 3 beating isn't necessarily much of an upset, or even a surprise.

[Sparlimb]

This year has the feeling of a lot of upsets come section time. Seems very unpredictable as to who is going to win each night as a lot of teams can compete. I can’t think of a section in AA right now where the top seed is safe. Even in 7AA where Andover is the clear favorite but East has won some big games and so has Rapids. 5AA is now wide open. Going to be fun to watch down the stretch here but can’t wait for about a month when the playoffs start.

Well, maybe. The landscape is pretty flat this season. I suppose whenever a 2 or 3 defeats a it's an upset, but when there is a lot of parity, 3 beating isn't necessarily much of an upset, or even a surprise.

I think this year we may at least three #4 seeds win their semi-final. We may see two #7 seeds win their quaterfinal. The field looks very balanced this year and there is no heavy favorite. EP still has the talent edge, but they need to come together as a team and they have a tough section. I'm still picking Moorhead. Not sure why, but I like their vibe. Which means Roseau will beat them, but hey...

[karl(east)]

Good follow-up comments as always. Goldy, I appreciate the 1AA take and think it's spot on from my vantage point up here in the north. As I said on the podcast this past week, both Hastings and Century got tested this past week, and neither one passed. Both have a lot of work to do to get back on the watch list, and really only Hastings has the schedule to achieve it. Curious to see what Owatonna can muster against Century and Farmington over the next two weeks. Having seen Denfeld a few times I don't think that's a horrid loss, but it doesn't scream top 25 either, and their schedule is on par with Century's. Gotta pass those few tests you do have.

I think the potential for carnage on Section Semifinal Saturday this year is excellent. Even if it makes this job harder, I really enjoy having some wide open seasons like this. Keeps it fun every time.