AA Rankings for 1/19/20

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karl(east)
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AA Rankings for 1/19/20

Post by karl(east) » Sun Jan 19, 2020 8:23 am

We have one month left in the regular season. For one week, at least, the cream seems to be separating a bit amid the top ten; after that, though, the pile-up continues.

1. Eden Prairie (13-2-1)
-Nothing came easily for the Eagles, who scraped out one-goal wins over Minnetonka and St. Michael-Albertville. In a season like this, results like that are enough to hold steady in the top spot in the rankings. Just one more week until the cavalry comes, but it’s certainly not an easy one, as they face a tough Wayzata team and another top ten opponent.
This week: Thurs at #11 Wayzata, Sat vs. #7 Blake

2. Andover (13-3-1)
-The Huskies beat Maple Grove 4-0 for a second time to all but lock up the Northwest Suburban. They are now into a relatively soft portion of their schedule, with only one borderline top 25 opponent (Holy Family) between now and their season finale against Blaine. If this team can just take care of business, it’ll set itself up well for a high seed at state.
This week: Thurs vs. Spring Lake Park, Sat at Centennial

3. Moorhead (13-3-1)
-The Spuds’ lone game got pushed back a week due to weather; I slid them back because Andover picked up an impressive win and they now have the same record as the Huskies and a head-to-head loss. They get a chance to avenge a major section loss on Tuesday and follow that up with a couple of respectable 7AA teams that could give them trouble.
This week: Tues at Roseau, Thurs vs. Grand Rapids, Sat at Duluth East

4. Rosemount (15-3)
-The Irish took another step toward the top seed in 3AA with a win over Burnsville and also beat Shakopee. Like Eden Prairie the margins of victory have been nothing to write home about lately, but they are collecting the victories with relative steadiness. This week they face one of the most dangerous teams in the South Suburban, and one they beat narrowly in their first meeting of the season.
This week: Thurs at #10 Prior Lake

5. White Bear Lake (12-2-1)
-The Bears are clipping along against the less menacing members of the Suburban East, and that trend should continue this coming week.
This week: Thurs vs. East Ridge, Sat at Mounds View

6. Maple Grove (12-4)
-The Crimson’s loss to Andover doesn’t inspire much confidence, but at least they remain predictable and therefore hold steady here. If they can avenge the Blaine loss this week they should have the inside track for the top seed in 5AA.
This week: Thurs vs. #12 Blaine, Sat at Osseo

7. Blake (13-4)
-The Bears followed suit on all of the other teams that I’ve bumped up in the rankings after a good run this season and decided losing to Burnsville would be fun. They followed that up with a quality win over Blaine in less than ideal conditions. They’ve got good depth and puck-moving ability, but, like so many teams, the question seems to be whether they can finish when they need to. A huge week ahead includes one of the most important 6AA seeding games and a scrap with Benilde and a game against #1.
This week: Tues at #14 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat at #1 Eden Prairie

8. Cretin-Derham Hall (13-3-1)
-The Raiders are steamrolling mediocre competition in impressive fashion and outscored their opponents 19-1 last week. Unless they pull a White Bear, this week will be more of the same. Speaking of White Bear, they loom in the following week in a game that will tell us a lot about the Suburban East.
This week: Thurs vs. Irondale, Sat at Roseville

9. Minnetonka (9-8)
-I’m not going to punish the Skips too much for a competitive loss to Eden Prairie given everything else that is going on in this part of the rankings. This coming week will be a telling one for their seeming improvement: can they beat Wayzata a second time and solidify their standing as the second-best team in the Lake against Edina? Or is it right back into the mess of a pack in the 10-15 portion of the rankings?
This week: Thurs vs. #15 Edina, Sat vs. #11 Wayzata

10. Prior Lake (11-4-3)
-The Lakers’ tie to Duluth East is a mild setback, but they followed it up with a strong win over Lakeville North and a hard-fought victory over Farmington as well. They aren’t an overpowering team, but in 2020 high school hockey, one impressive line of sophomores is enough to make a team a contender. I’m very curious to see what they can muster against the Irish to see if their seeming improvement this season is real.
This week: Thurs vs. #4 Rosemount

11. Wayzata (10-6-1)
-The Trojans stayed true to past form this past week as they beat Hill for a second time and lost to Edina for a second time, and in this part of the rankings, I guess predictability is the best we can do as we try to fill spots. If this team could figure out how to beat the Hornets they’d be in good shape both in these rankings and in the 6AA seeding race, but they couldn’t put it away. It’s now time for a Lake Conference meat grinder week.
This week: Thurs vs. #1 Eden Prairie, Sat at #9 Minnetonka

12. Blaine (10-6)
-We’re now in the sort of place where losing narrowly but predictably helps a team in the rankings more than some version of the reverse. The Bengals crushed Spring Lake Park but fell on Hockey Day to Blake; while their front-end talent is a force to be reckoned with, their depth has been a weakness against other good teams. They can lock up the top seed in 5AA with a win over Maple Grove this week.
This week: Tues at Totino-Grace, Thurs at #6 Maple Grove, Sat at Anoka

13. Hill-Murray (10-5-2)
-The Pios fell in a predictably tight game against Wayzata but found their way to a needed strong win in a conference game with Hastings. This week’s game with Stillwater will at the very least decide the 2-seed in 4AA, and they get to cope with Grand Rapids also.
This week: Tues at Stillwater, Sat at Grand Rapids

14. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (8-6-2)
-A week after a quality win over Hill, the Red Knights fell to Chaska; they just can’t seem to sustain things even when they do pick up a quality result. The Blake game will play a major role in their ultimate seeding fate, and Holy Angels also offers a section game this week.
This week: Tues vs. #7 Blake, Thurs vs. Chanhassen, Sat at Holy Angels

15. Edina (9-7-2)
-The Hornets had a worrying escape against Buffalo but saved face with a valuable section win over Wayzata. That tight sort of result with strong defense and goaltending shows what this team needs to do to string things together come playoff time. They have their first meeting with rival Minnetonka this coming week, along with a potentially interesting scrap with former section rival Burnsville.
This week: Thurs at #9 Minnetonka, Sat vs. Burnsville

The Next Ten

Grand Rapids (9-5-1)
-The Thunderhawks picked up a solid section win over Cloquet this past week, which inches them closer to a 2-seed in 7AA. The week ahead includes two big ones against Moorhead and Hill, which gives them a chance to make a move in these rankings.

Roseau (12-4)
-The Rams stumbled against East Grand Forks, which keeps them hovering in this 15-20 range. It is now moment of truth week for the Rams, as they face the other two contenders for top three seeds in 8AA, plus a St. Cloud team that has a pretty good argument for the 4-seed. Just how good is this team?

Stillwater (10-3-1)
-The Ponies rolled along against the underbelly of the Suburban East. If they’re going to climb higher than the 3-seed in 4AA they need this week’s game against Hill, and they have two additional games against lower level section opponents in Woodbury and Irondale also.

St. Michael-Albertville (6-7-3)
-The Knights remain plenty competitive in games against good competition and gave Eden Prairie a good run. They now head into a run of section games and pay a visit to Roseau, which will give them a crack at the 2-seed.

Burnsville (10-5-2)
-The good news: the Blaze knocked off Blake in their first top ten win of the season. The mediocre news: they were competitive in a loss to section frontrunner Rosemount. The bad news: they lost to Eagan, a team they had beaten previously, and this fouls up the 3AA seeding race. They’ve got another tough week ahead of them as they face another South Suburban muddle member in Eastview and visit Edina.

Holy Family (10-7)
-Methodically took care of Delano in their only action this past week. A battle with Hermantown now looms.

Lakeville South (10-6)
-Consistency continues to elude the Cougars, who beat a decent conference opponent in Eagan but followed that up with a loss to Eastview. The rematch with North this week is their chance to reclaim some authority in an up-and-down season.

Eagan (12-5)
-The Wildcats’ week was typical of South Suburban play this season as they fell to Lakeville South but beat Burnsville, both in tight fashion. The Burnsville win gives them a crack at the 2-seed in 3AA if they can close well. Up this week: a single game against Farmington.

Duluth East (7-8-1)
-The Hounds looked fairly good in a tie against Prior Lake, and the rest of their week fell victim to the storm. Those two games against Brainerd and Moorhead were promptly rescheduled for this coming week, and they also have a section game of note at Forest Lake on Tuesday.

Lakeville North (10-5-1)
-The Panthers came up short against Prior Lake and are still struggling to find any genuine traction here. They can claim the top seed in 1AA with a second win over Lakeville South this week.

ThatMNHockeyGuy62
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/19/20

Post by ThatMNHockeyGuy62 » Sun Jan 19, 2020 11:22 am

Nice write up. One correction, Blaine’s 14-0 win was over the other SLP: Spring Lake Park. Last season I’d say what’s the difference, but this year St. Louis Park is quietly putting up some respectable games and they have a top end goalie. 14-0 over St. Louis Park would be mildly shocking.

WestMetro
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/19/20

Post by WestMetro » Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:20 pm

Nice in depth research

Cavalry showing up for EP will mean 6 D1s on the ice . ( Is the next closest team this year just 2? ) Plus Holt . They may not lose another game this year after end of Jan ?

Cavalry coming soon also to help Edina, with return of Jimmy Clark . Will further muddle up Section 6

Weird that 22 and 25 have both beaten # 4

I may have to go down to Casino rink Thursday night to see wth is going on currently in the crazy SSC . # 10 vs 4. Should be a good one

ThatMNHockeyGuy62
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/19/20

Post by ThatMNHockeyGuy62 » Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:44 pm

WestMetro wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:20 pm
Nice in depth research

Cavalry showing up for EP will mean 6 D1s on the ice . ( Is the next closest team this year just 2? ) Plus Holt . They may not lose another game this year after end of Jan ?
Of course it’s possible, but they were hardly invincible in December before injuries. While Jackson Blake is dynamic, you think one player will be the difference to make them go undefeated the rest of the way to a state title? He will certainly help an already potent PP, but D after L. Mittelstadt is a concern.

WestMetro
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/19/20

Post by WestMetro » Sun Jan 19, 2020 3:19 pm

62 not a bad couple people to add down the stretch though . J Blake with approx 25-30 elite league points I recall .

If they win the section , they would probably draw either Mg, Blake or LV in the first round, the way things look right now according to Karl’s data . I suppose a hot goalie could beat them , but they have 3 pure goal scorers in Steeves , Holt and Blake , along with JM not far behind and Batchelder

LM and ML pretty good first blue line pair

Impressive lineup if coach Smith can bring it all together

ThatMNHockeyGuy62
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/19/20

Post by ThatMNHockeyGuy62 » Sun Jan 19, 2020 3:39 pm

You are right, they should definitely help! With the way this season is going though, I wouldn’t bet on anybody finishing undefeated from here.

muckandgrinder65
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/19/20

Post by muckandgrinder65 » Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:48 pm

Predict that MH, And., EP win out before state seedings..
Westy do you agree?

WestMetro
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/19/20

Post by WestMetro » Sun Jan 19, 2020 8:10 pm

Odds say yes . But who knows . Odds are best for EP Id say

karl(east)
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/19/20

Post by karl(east) » Sun Jan 19, 2020 10:16 pm

ThatMNHockeyGuy62 wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 11:22 am
Nice write up. One correction, Blaine’s 14-0 win was over the other SLP: Spring Lake Park. Last season I’d say what’s the difference, but this year St. Louis Park is quietly putting up some respectable games and they have a top end goalie. 14-0 over St. Louis Park would be mildly shocking.
Thanks for the catch, and my apologies to the Orioles, who are on my radar as a borderline top 25 team!

Section 8 guy
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/19/20

Post by Section 8 guy » Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:41 am

muckandgrinder65 wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:48 pm
Predict that MH, And., EP win out before state seedings..
Westy do you agree?
Yikes......that’s a little aggressive IMHO. Especially the way this season has gone. I don’t think I’d place a bet on any horse, but If I had to bet on one team running the table the rest of the way I’d bet on Andover. Clearly the easiest remaining schedule of the top 5 teams.

ryguyMN
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/19/20

Post by ryguyMN » Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:40 am

I can’t see any top 10 AA team running the table with goal differentials being so small this season. Not a lot of running time games.
Ryan

ThatMNHockeyGuy62
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/19/20

Post by ThatMNHockeyGuy62 » Mon Jan 20, 2020 6:43 pm

karl(east) wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 10:16 pm
ThatMNHockeyGuy62 wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 11:22 am
Nice write up. One correction, Blaine’s 14-0 win was over the other SLP: Spring Lake Park. Last season I’d say what’s the difference, but this year St. Louis Park is quietly putting up some respectable games and they have a top end goalie. 14-0 over St. Louis Park would be mildly shocking.
Thanks for the catch, and my apologies to the Orioles, who are on my radar as a borderline top 25 team!
The way 6AA (and the entire state) is shaping up I could see a spoiler or two on their part come sections.

Blue Line
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/19/20

Post by Blue Line » Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:51 pm

ThatMNHockeyGuy62 wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 6:43 pm
karl(east) wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 10:16 pm
ThatMNHockeyGuy62 wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 11:22 am
Nice write up. One correction, Blaine’s 14-0 win was over the other SLP: Spring Lake Park. Last season I’d say what’s the difference, but this year St. Louis Park is quietly putting up some respectable games and they have a top end goalie. 14-0 over St. Louis Park would be mildly shocking.
Thanks for the catch, and my apologies to the Orioles, who are on my radar as a borderline top 25 team!
The way 6AA (and the entire state) is shaping up I could see a spoiler or two on their part come sections.
SLP as a potential 7 seed could be someone’s nightmare in Section 6AA. Holy Angels as a potential 6 seed certainly isn’t any better. Either of those teams could easily spring an upset against a higher seeded team. Shaping up to be an exciting late February across the state.

ThatMNHockeyGuy62
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/19/20

Post by ThatMNHockeyGuy62 » Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:55 pm

Blue Line wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:51 pm
ThatMNHockeyGuy62 wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 6:43 pm
karl(east) wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 10:16 pm


Thanks for the catch, and my apologies to the Orioles, who are on my radar as a borderline top 25 team!
The way 6AA (and the entire state) is shaping up I could see a spoiler or two on their part come sections.
SLP as a potential 7 seed could be someone’s nightmare in Section 6AA. Holy Angels as a potential 6 seed certainly isn’t any better. Either of those teams could easily spring an upset against a higher seeded team. Shaping up to be an exciting late February across the state.
Agreed completely except SLP beat Holy Angels, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Park gets the 6 seed and AHA the 7. Either way you’re right, and I think a QF game between SLP and BSM would be fun. Happened two years ago as well, though I think they were 4/5 game.

O-townClown
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/19/20

Post by O-townClown » Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:10 am

How does this compare to PS2 rankings?
karl(east) wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 8:23 am
3 1. Eden Prairie (13-2-1)
1 2. Andover (13-3-1)
7 3. Moorhead (13-3-1)
5 4. Rosemount (15-3)
15 5. White Bear Lake (12-2-1)
12 6. Maple Grove (12-4)
4 7. Blake (13-4)
2 8. Cretin-Derham Hall (13-3-1)
11 9. Minnetonka (9-8)
9 10. Prior Lake (11-4-3)
13 11. Wayzata (10-6-1)
18 12. Blaine (10-6)
6 13. Hill-Murray (10-5-2)
14 14. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (8-6-2)
10 15. Edina (9-7-2)
23 Grand Rapids (9-5-1)
17 Roseau (12-4)
16 Stillwater (10-3-1)
24 St. Michael-Albertville (6-7-3)
26 Burnsville (10-5-2)
22 Holy Family (10-7)
8 Lakeville South (10-6)
25 Eagan (12-5)
30 Duluth East (7-8-1)
20 Lakeville North (10-5-1)
Worth noting two Class A schools would be:
4 1/2 - Hermantown
7 1/2 - St. Cloud Cathedra
Be kind. Rewind.

elliott70
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/19/20

Post by elliott70 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:31 am

Class 2A | Jan. 23, 2020
rank team record prev
1. Eden Prairie 13-2-1 1
2. Andover 13-3-1 2
3. Rosemount 15-3-0 3
4. Moorhead 14-3-1 4
5. Maple Grove 12-4-0 5
6. White Bear Lake 12-2-1 6
7. Cretin-Derham Hall 13-3-1 7
8. Benilde-St. Margaret's 9-6-2
9. Minnetonka 9-8-0
10. Edina 9-7-2

kpryan88
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/19/20

Post by kpryan88 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:56 am

elliott70 wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:31 am
Class 2A | Jan. 23, 2020
rank team record prev
1. Eden Prairie 13-2-1 1
2. Andover 13-3-1 2
3. Rosemount 15-3-0 3
4. Moorhead 14-3-1 4
5. Maple Grove 12-4-0 5
6. White Bear Lake 12-2-1 6
7. Cretin-Derham Hall 13-3-1 7
8. Benilde-St. Margaret's 9-6-2
9. Minnetonka 9-8-0
10. Edina 9-7-2
Very interesting to have Edina at #10 and Hill not on the list. I thought the 5-0 2 game sweep of Edina would keep them rated higher than Edina this season.

TheNightman
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/19/20

Post by TheNightman » Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:54 pm

kpryan88 wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:56 am
elliott70 wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:31 am
Class 2A | Jan. 23, 2020
rank team record prev
1. Eden Prairie 13-2-1 1
2. Andover 13-3-1 2
3. Rosemount 15-3-0 3
4. Moorhead 14-3-1 4
5. Maple Grove 12-4-0 5
6. White Bear Lake 12-2-1 6
7. Cretin-Derham Hall 13-3-1 7
8. Benilde-St. Margaret's 9-6-2
9. Minnetonka 9-8-0
10. Edina 9-7-2
Very interesting to have Edina at #10 and Hill not on the list. I thought the 5-0 2 game sweep of Edina would keep them rated higher than Edina this season.
Some strange choices by LPH there, that being one of them.

BP
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/19/20

Post by BP » Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:08 pm

TheNightman wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:54 pm
kpryan88 wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:56 am
elliott70 wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:31 am
Class 2A | Jan. 23, 2020
rank team record prev
1. Eden Prairie 13-2-1 1
2. Andover 13-3-1 2
3. Rosemount 15-3-0 3
4. Moorhead 14-3-1 4
5. Maple Grove 12-4-0 5
6. White Bear Lake 12-2-1 6
7. Cretin-Derham Hall 13-3-1 7
8. Benilde-St. Margaret's 9-6-2
9. Minnetonka 9-8-0
10. Edina 9-7-2
Very interesting to have Edina at #10 and Hill not on the list. I thought the 5-0 2 game sweep of Edina would keep them rated higher than Edina this season.
Some strange choices by LPH there, that being one of them.
LPH doesn't do the rankings - it's by the coaches. They just publish it.

InThePipes
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/19/20

Post by InThePipes » Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:21 pm

BP wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:08 pm
TheNightman wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:54 pm
kpryan88 wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:56 am


Very interesting to have Edina at #10 and Hill not on the list. I thought the 5-0 2 game sweep of Edina would keep them rated higher than Edina this season.
Some strange choices by LPH there, that being one of them.
LPH doesn't do the rankings - it's by the coaches. They just publish it.
The top 3 are on a tier, while far from perfect, they've separated themselves from the pack in my opinion.

BP
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/19/20

Post by BP » Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:11 am

InThePipes wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:21 pm
BP wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:08 pm
TheNightman wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:54 pm


Some strange choices by LPH there, that being one of them.
LPH doesn't do the rankings - it's by the coaches. They just publish it.
The top 3 are on a tier, while far from perfect, they've separated themselves from the pack in my opinion.
And then the craziness continues - PL 6, Rosemount 2!

hockey59
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/19/20

Post by hockey59 » Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:33 am

The best way to describe Maple Grove since the unfortunate injury to KK...is a pit bull with a nozzle clamped over its nose & mouth. Energetic & moves well, but no BITE whatsoever. Missing KK, Blaine is the better team, as they proved again (last night) ☝️

WestMetro
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/19/20

Post by WestMetro » Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:45 am

Hey, Moorhead is looking better and better! Quietly piling up more and more wins against good teams. This may be their year for championship at the X? Hodges has proven he can win three straight on the road against top teams. Prediction: they draw and beat Lakeville in the first round, get thru the semis against a first round shock winner WBL, and then go on to beat Andover in another Section 7 vs 8 final reminiscent of 2017. What a story!

InThePipes
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/19/20

Post by InThePipes » Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:46 am

InThePipes wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:21 pm
BP wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:08 pm
TheNightman wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:54 pm


Some strange choices by LPH there, that being one of them.
LPH doesn't do the rankings - it's by the coaches. They just publish it.
The top 3 are on a tier, while far from perfect, they've separated themselves from the pack in my opinion.
This post didn't exactly age well :lol:

ryguyMN
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/19/20

Post by ryguyMN » Fri Jan 24, 2020 12:26 pm

In past seasons, you could group teams in tiers based on rankings, but there is little separation this year. Just using Karl’s latest rankings, #1 EP has lost to the #3, #10, and #11 teams and escaped with a one goal win over the #9 team. They also tied a team no longer in the top 25 (STA).

If the parity doesn’t fill arenas come section playoffs, then high school hockey in MN is dead. You won’t get better games than this.
Ryan

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