AA Rankings for 2/9/20

[karl(east)]

On the whole the rankings were fairly stable this week, though things are moving toward the back end of the top 15, and we had a couple of regular entrants crash out of the rankings. For the penultimate time:

1. Andover (19-3-1)
-The Huskies kept plugging along by handling St. Cloud in their lone game. It’s been nearly a month since they played another top 20 team, so this Saturday’s game with Blaine will give us a better idea of their state of affairs heading into sections.
This week: Thurs vs. Coon Rapids, Sat vs. #13 Blaine

2. Blake (18-5)
-Nothing too exciting here as the Bears Providence Academy. A finale with Maple Grove gives them one final test and, as with Andover, gives them a welcome break from their easy pickings over the past few weeks.
This week: Thurs vs. Buffalo, Sat at Maple Grove

3. Moorhead (18-4-1)
-The Spuds put together a quality win over St. Cloud Cathedral to further cement their position among the top teams, and they picked off a Brainerd team they may see again also. They’ve got one final test against a good Hill team.
This week: Sat vs. #11 Hill-Murray

4. Eden Prairie (16-5-1)
-The Eagles’ loss to Minnetonka shows that adding personnel alone isn’t going to get this team across the finish line. They’re still not scoring nearly enough for a team with this much talent, and have likely now played their way out of the top seed in 2AA. This final week, which includes a couple of teams on the upswing, will not come easy. Is this really a talent-loaded team that deserves favored status heading into sections, or will they head in with a lot of questions?
This week: Tues at #6 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Thurs at St. Michael-Albertville, Sat vs. #10 Wayzata

5. Prior Lake (16-5-3)
-The Lakers edged past Holy Family and outlasted Lakeville South in a back-and-forth affair. I’m still not fully sold on them being as ready for primetime as the teams around them, but they keep winning while others don’t. This season, that’s enough to be a top five team.
This week: Thurs at Apple Valley

6. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (14-6-2)
-This is a case where we trust momentum: the Red Knights rolled past two teams in the 15-25 range, have won six in a row, and have the talent to belong among the top teams. They can put an exclamation point on this late-season run and improve their 6AA seeding status if they can take down Eden Prairie this week.
This week: Tues vs. #4 Eden Prairie, Thurs vs. St. Louis Park, Sat at Bloomington Kennedy

7. Rosemount (18-5)
-The Irish took some steps in the right direction with low-scoring, controlling wins over Eagan and Lakeville North. This is exactly the formula they’ll need to follow to continue their success this coming week and through the 3AA playoffs.
This week: Thurs vs. Eastview, Sat at Burnsville

8. Lakeville South (15-7)
-A win over Farmington and a competitive loss to Prior Lake don’t do much to move the needle on the Cougars. This coming week, however, could: they have an elite A team and two competitive South Suburban foes who will tell us whether this top ten ranking is justified.
This week: Tues vs. Hermantown, Thurs vs. Burnsville, Sat at Eagan

9. Cretin-Derham Hall (18-5-1)
-The Raiders took a beating from Stillwater, which adds some intrigue down the stretch, though they rebounded to handle Forest Lake. They close with a struggling White Bear team, and a win could be key for their section standing.
This week: Thurs at White Bear Lake

10. Wayzata (14-8-1)
-The Trojans had a bit of an adventure with Buffalo but pulled out the win and fell to St. Cloud Cathedral in overtime, which I wouldn’t consider a poor result at all. A couple of their old Lake friends await them in the season’s final week. A win over Edina could improve their standing in the section somewhat, and a second win over Eden Prairie would be a good confidence-booster heading in to sections.
This week: Thurs vs. #12 Edina, Sat at #4 Eden Prairie

11. Hill-Murray (15-6-2)
-The Pioneers collected a quality win over Maple Grove before it was cool and have now won six of their last seven, including a couple of wins that look pretty good given recent results. A win over Moorhead in a battle of likely Brimsek finalists would firm up their placement in the upper echelon of teams heading into sections, while a loss would leave them in the great muddle in spots 10-15.
This week: Wed vs. Chaska, Sat at #3 Moorhead

12. Edina (12-9-2)
-The Hornets had a solid week against the Lake Conference newbies and showed some offense in the process, which helps them out a bit here. They face two of their more traditional rivals this week, including one
This week: Thurs at #10 Wayzata, Sat vs. Minnetonka

13. Blaine (16-7)
-The Bengals fought past Elk River and hung double digits on Holy Family, which shows what their offense can do when they’re on. We’ll see if they can do anything against Andover in that season finale.
This week: Tues at Rogers, Sat at #1 Andover

14. Grand Rapids (15-7-1)
-The Thunderhawks keep moving in the right direction and have allowed just 12 goals in their past 13 games. That defense will get a major test on Thursday, though they also have to deal with an unpredictable section rival this week.
This week: Tues at Cloquet, Thurs vs. Hermantown

15. Lakeville North (15-7-1)
-The Panthers logged one of their more impressive wins of they year when they hung six on Minnetonka; a win over Eastview also helps their standing, though the subsequent loss to Rosemount puts a ceiling on their seeming improvement. They’ve got an important section test with Hastings on Tuesday, plus a date with Eagan that will be relevant for these rankings, if nothing else.
Schedule: Tues vs. Hastings, Sat vs. Eagan

The Next Ten

Minnetonka (12-11)
-Life in 2019-2020 high school hockey: the Skippers got handled by Lakeville North but beat Eden Prairie. St. Thomas and Edina round things out this week on a tour of elite programs that will be playing in 4/5 games.

Stillwater (16-5-2)
-This is what I get for overreacting to a bad result last week: the Ponies surged back to life with impressive wins over White Bear and Cretin, and suddenly very much in the thick of things in 4AA. They have an interesting mix of teams in their final week with games against St. Thomas, Forest Lake, and Holy Family.

St. Michael-Albertville (12-9-3)
-The sheen came off the Knights a bit this past week as they lost to Benilde and Edina by a collective 11-3 score. They’re capable of some big wins, but I’m also feeling justified in leaving them out of the top 15 looking in. They can close with a bang by doing something against Eden Prairie.

Eagan (15-7)
-The Wildcats held serve with a loss to Rosemount and a solid win over Eastview, which I think should be enough to claim a 2-seed in 3AA. Their three-game final week includes the mystery team from Duluth and both Lakevilles.

White Bear Lake (15-7-1)
-It was open season on Bears this past week, as this team went 0-3 against a bunch of teams that are decent but hardly elite; the Cloquet loss in particular burns them. They’ll need to restore order against Forest Lake this week, and Cretin looms on Thursday as well.

Maple Grove (15-8)
-Joining the Bears in the freefalling section the rankings are the Crimson, who lost to Hill and to both Duluth East and Rapids on their northern swing. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a team that skates so well but seems so offensively anemic. A season-ending contest with Blake gives them a chance to restore a little order to a season that has snowballed in a hurry.

Burnsville (14-7-2)
-The Blaze plugged along with twin 4-0 wins over the bottom-feeders of the South Suburban. Lakeville South and Rosemount highlight a busy final week, and their Saturday game with Jefferson could well be a preview of a quarterfinal next week.

St. Thomas Academy (12-8-2)
-A revenge win over Mahtomedi continues the Cadets’ slow but steady steps in the right direction. Surging Stillwater and decent Minnetonka will provide excellent tests in the season’s final week.

Chaska (12-9-1)
-A loss to Benilde and a win over Jefferson do little to change the Hawks’ standing. Hill-Murray headlines a three-game final week.

Eastview (12-10-1)
-Losses to Lakeville North and Eagan have the Lightning clinging to this spot. Rosemount offers a potential section preview on Thursday before they close with Farmington.

Sections:

1AA
8 Lakeville South
15 Lakeville North
Hastings
Rochester Century
-I feel like I’ve seesawed back and forth on the Lakevilles relative to the rest of the state all season, but they’re on a relative upswing now. The path is straightforward from here: Hastings can break the top two, and perhaps even be number one again, with a win over Lakeville North this week. If they lose, they are the 3-seed. Century is locked in at 4 after recent wins over Owatonna and Northfield.

2AA
5 Prior Lake
4 Eden Prairie
16 Minnetonka
24 Chaska
-Prior Lake’s win over Eden Prairie this past week should firm up this ordering. That Eden Prairie-Minnetonka semifinal will be must-see TV for those who make the circuit across the Metro that Saturday.

3AA
7 Rosemount
19 Eagan
22 Burnsville
25 Eastview
23 St. Thomas Academy
-Rosemount’s win over Eagan this past week kept the Irish undefeated in the section, while the other contenders all have at least two losses, so even with two section games in the season’s final week I think they have the top seed sewn up. The games will certainly be telling, though. I’m still giving Eagan the 2-seed because they’ve had a slightly stronger season than Burnsville and won the more recent meeting, while Eastview’s November win over St. Thomas is probably enough for home ice in that 4/5 game.

4AA
20 White Bear Lake
11 Hill-Murray
17 Stillwater
East Ridge
-This one got interesting in a hurry. I’m still slotting White Bear in the top slot since the Bears are 2-1 against the other two top teams, but with their ugly section losses and recent collapse, I think Hill can make a pretty good case for the top spot and wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen. The stakes are pretty high, since Stillwater is arguably looking the best of all of them right now, though the Ponies have not done enough to make a play for the top seed. With East Ridge not looking like an easy out either, there is now plenty of intrigue in this one.

5AA
13 Blaine
21 Maple Grove
Centennial
Totino-Grace
-Centennial’s win over Totino this past week should have this one locked in. Totino and Champlin Park could be a good quarterfinal matchup.

6AA
2 Blake
6 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
9 Cretin-Derham Hall
12 Edina
10 Wayzata
-This week’s Edina-Wayzata game could nudge the Trojans into the 4-seed, but I think it’s largely a battle for home ice in the quarterfinals; now that Benilde is surging, the three private schools have done enough overall to avoid one another for at least one round. Among them, I’m sticking with them in my ranking order; Cretin’s Stillwater stumble may leave them at 3, with Blake trying to hold off Benilde despite the head-to-head result.

7AA
1 Andover
14 Grand Rapids
Forest Lake
Duluth East
-We’ll see what QRF spits out in the end here, but the top two are obvious and East has not been able to sustain enough momentum to make a run at the 3-seed. A likely-seeming East-Cloquet quarterfinal will have entertainment value, if nothing else.

8AA
3 Moorhead
18 St. Michael-Albertville
Roseau
St. Cloud
-The top two are set here, but thanks to Rogers’ win over St. Cloud this past week, it gets complicated after that: Roseau, St. Cloud, Rogers, and Brainerd all have four losses in the section. Roseau has the most wins (5) and best overall credentials of that group, so I think the Rams have re-earned the 3-seed. After that, even though Rogers did just beat St. Cloud, I think St. Cloud has done enough to get the 4-seed, while I don’t see Rogers (who has also lost to Bemidji) going higher than 6, leaving Brainerd as the 5. There are all sorts of convoluted logical trains one could follow in that part of this section, though.

[InThePipes]

Great job Karl!

The question becomes who even seems capable of putting a 6 game winning streak together to close out the season? I have a hard time putting too many teams in the category at this point.

[ryguyMN]

Random section musings:

I could see Hill taking the top spot in 4AA based on recent trends. While WBL has the head-to-head win, Hill’s strength of schedule has been stronger this year.

Having five top 15 teams in 6AA is unreal. You could have the semis at Ridder or Mariucci and still draw a decent crowd.

Of the teams coming out of their section, Moorhead is still the only team I’d put money on playing at the X in March.

[WestMetro]

One interesting aspect of the 2AA seeding , in this year of certain unpredictability, is the fact the Chaska with far less seasoned talent than last year has a realistic shot to beat PL in the semis (beat them once already ), and make it to Mariucci for their first? time in the finals. At that point, anything can happen with one game, they lost to EP and Tonka by only 1 and 2 goals in mid season. Could we possibly see Chaska with freshman sensation JImmy Snuggerud at the X this year, before he likely answers the call to Ntdp?

[northwoods oldtimer]

One interesting aspect of the 2AA seeding , in this year of certain unpredictability, is the fact the Chaska with far less seasoned talent than last year has a realistic shot to beat PL in the semis (beat them once already ), and make it to Mariucci for their first? time in the finals. At that point, anything can happen with one game, they lost to EP and Tonka by only 1 and 2 goals in mid season. Could we possibly see Chaska with freshman sensation JImmy Snuggerud at the X this year, before he likely answers the call to Ntdp?

Wide open!! Makes for some fun playoff hockey.

[northwoods oldtimer]

Great job Karl!

The question becomes who even seems capable of putting a 6 game winning streak together to close out the season? I have a hard time putting too many teams in the category at this point.

Ain't that the truth! Will make for roller coaster playoffs. Should be entertaining stretch run to Excel

[goldy313]

In 1AA
If North beats Hastings it is pretty straight forward
South
North
Hastings
Century
Owatonna
Farmington
Northfield
Mayo
John Marshall

If Hastings beats North I will channel Keith Jackson and say “whoa Nelly, bar the barn doors” chaos could ensue among the top 4. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the top 4 as
South
Hastings
Century
North

[bardown27]

In 1AA
If North beats Hastings it is pretty straight forward
South
North
Hastings
Century
Owatonna
Farmington
Northfield
Mayo
John Marshall

If Hastings beats North I will channel Keith Jackson and say “whoa Nelly, bar the barn doors” chaos could ensue among the top 4. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the top 4 as
South
Hastings
Century
North

If Hastings beat North, why would Century jump North? Century really doesn't have a quality win, and they also lost to Farmington, who tied Hastings, and who North is 2-0 against. If Hastings wins, it will go:

South
Hastings
North
Farmington
Century
Owatonna
Northfield
Mayo
JM

[elliott70]

QRF 2-10-20
1 Andover (19-3-1) 143.0
T-2 Blake (18-5) 132.3
T-2 Rosemount (18-5) 132.3
4 Moorhead (18-4-1) 131.8
5 Eden Prairie (16-5-1) 129.2
6 Cretin-Derham Hall (18-5-1) 126.7
7 Prior Lake (16-5-3) 126.1
8 Hill-Murray (15-6-2) 121.5
9 Stillwater Area (16-5-1) 117.9
T-10 Benilde-St. Margaret's (14-6-2) 117.2
T-10 Wayzata (14-8-1) 117.2
12 Lakeville South (15-7) 117.1
13 Maple Grove (15-8) 116.1
14 Blaine (16-7) 115.9
15 Lakeville North (15-7-1) 115.6
16 White Bear Lake (15-7-1) 110.6
17 Edina (12-9-2) 110.2
18 Grand Rapids (15-7-1) 108.5
19 Eagan (15-7) 105.1
20 Minnetonka (12-11) 104.6
21 Burnsville (14-7-2) 102.4
22 Champlin Park (15-8) 99.2
23 St. Michael-Albertville (12-9-3) 99.0
24 Roseau (15-8-1) 98.3
25 Hastings (16-4-2) 97.6

[goldy313]

Farmington has a losing record and lost to Owatonna. They won’t get a home game no matter what. They are just on the wrong end of the A beat B, B beat C, C beat A argument.

Last year Century was seeded 3rd with a similar record, I think they were seeded to high but they ended up there nonetheless. I don’t know what or why that would change this year. If North beats Hastings it is easy to seed, if Hastings wins it gets more complicated.

[bardown27]

Farmington has a losing record and lost to Owatonna. They won’t get a home game no matter what. They are just on the wrong end of the A beat B, B beat C, C beat A argument.

Last year Century was seeded 3rd with a similar record, I think they were seeded to high but they ended up there nonetheless. I don’t know what or why that would change this year. If North beats Hastings it is easy to seed, if Hastings wins it gets more complicated.

I get that you have a strong love for all things 1AA except for the two Lakeville schools and Farmington, but FFS man open your eyes. They have a losing record yes, but they have also beat your beloved Century Panthers and they play the 17th toughest schedule in the state. I know that's nothing compared to Century's 101st hardest schedule in the state with the likes of Austin, Faribault, Winona, Mankato East and the rest of the Big 9, but come on

[goldy313]

Farmington does play a much tougher schedule, but they lose. In fact they haven’t won a game since January 9th, that includes losing to Owatonna.

In my opinion Century, Owatonna, and Farmington are pretty even. I think Farmington is a bit ahead of the other 2, due to their schedule and tie with Hastings. I don’t think there is any way a 6-7 win team gets a top 4 seed however.

[elliott70]

Class 2A | Feb. 13, 2020
rank team record prev
1. Andover 19-3-1 1
2. Blake 18-5-0 2
3. Eden Prairie 17-5-1 3
4. Moorhead 18-4-1 4
5. Rosemount 18-5-0 5
6. Prior Lake 16-5-3 8
7. Benilde-St. Margaret's 14-7-2 7
8. Hill-Murray 15-6-3 9
9. Cretin-Derham Hall 18-5-1 6
10. Edina 12-9-2

[InThePipes]

Class 2A | Feb. 13, 2020
rank team record prev
1. Andover 19-3-1 1
2. Blake 18-5-0 2
3. Eden Prairie 17-5-1 3
4. Moorhead 18-4-1 4
5. Rosemount 18-5-0 5
6. Prior Lake 16-5-3 8
7. Benilde-St. Margaret's 14-7-2 7
8. Hill-Murray 15-6-3 9
9. Cretin-Derham Hall 18-5-1 6
10. Edina 12-9-2

Difficult to argue with any of these rankings.

When I think of teams that are built to win it all this year (balanced, but with some star power to push them over the top) and I limit it to only a handful of teams (5) I'd go with Andover, EP, Moorhead, Rosemount and HM. Andover and EP have star power and more depth than any of the others while Moorhead, Rosemount and HM all have outstanding goalies and a couple of stars each. I'm certain someone else will make a case for others, but that's how I see it today.